mikedilger on Nostr: I'm going to make a second comment, this time about the USD. While I may have moral ...
I'm going to make a second comment, this time about the USD. While I may have moral issues with fiat currencies, and with the direction the US is going both militarily and economically and in some way socially too... I try to be dispassionate about assessing the situation. And I'm not so sure the USD is going to collapse at all.
All my life Libertarians have predicted the imminent demise of the US dollar. Every world event makes it seem closer and closer. But Imminent has already meant 50 years and I think it could probably take another 20 years before people will generally agree that it is even starting to collapse.
US government debt carried via treasuries (27 billion) is owned mostly to other US parties, in fact 21% of debt (6.9 trillion) is owned to other agencies of the US government itself! So it is an intra-governmental accounting. 17% (5.5 trillion) is held by the Fed, which could also be considered intra-governmental in a way. After state and local government, next is to Americans: mutual funds, banks, private pension funds, insurers, and private holders (10.6 trillion as a group). As for foreign holders, the largest is Japan at 1.1 trillion, and China is then at 834 billion. That's about 3%. Even if China doesn't buy US treasuries anymore, I don't think it matters much. And if China dumps theirs it makes no difference who holds them from the US point of view... somebody buys them for China to sell them. When the US needs to sell more, they can always sell them to the Fed (sneaky tricksters).
Of course inflation is the result, so expect it.
But how long can that happen? A long long time. As of 2022 Japan was at 260% GDP, Greece was 2nd at 177% GDP, the US is "only" at about 120% of GDP.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_debt
So yes, the world will move away from the USD, the USD will lose value over time, but I guess "collapse" isn't the term I would use because relative to a lot of other countries it will probably hold up just fine.
I expect fiat currencies to all fall together, slowly, forever, without any sudden collapses, barring those exceptional events that come from time to time.
Add to that the 10 year trend of USDCNY has been upwards, which doesn't make any sense if the USD is collapsing.
Anyhow I don't really know what I'm talking about, but all the information I've presented leads me to doubt.
All my life Libertarians have predicted the imminent demise of the US dollar. Every world event makes it seem closer and closer. But Imminent has already meant 50 years and I think it could probably take another 20 years before people will generally agree that it is even starting to collapse.
US government debt carried via treasuries (27 billion) is owned mostly to other US parties, in fact 21% of debt (6.9 trillion) is owned to other agencies of the US government itself! So it is an intra-governmental accounting. 17% (5.5 trillion) is held by the Fed, which could also be considered intra-governmental in a way. After state and local government, next is to Americans: mutual funds, banks, private pension funds, insurers, and private holders (10.6 trillion as a group). As for foreign holders, the largest is Japan at 1.1 trillion, and China is then at 834 billion. That's about 3%. Even if China doesn't buy US treasuries anymore, I don't think it matters much. And if China dumps theirs it makes no difference who holds them from the US point of view... somebody buys them for China to sell them. When the US needs to sell more, they can always sell them to the Fed (sneaky tricksters).
Of course inflation is the result, so expect it.
But how long can that happen? A long long time. As of 2022 Japan was at 260% GDP, Greece was 2nd at 177% GDP, the US is "only" at about 120% of GDP.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_debt
So yes, the world will move away from the USD, the USD will lose value over time, but I guess "collapse" isn't the term I would use because relative to a lot of other countries it will probably hold up just fine.
I expect fiat currencies to all fall together, slowly, forever, without any sudden collapses, barring those exceptional events that come from time to time.
Add to that the 10 year trend of USDCNY has been upwards, which doesn't make any sense if the USD is collapsing.
Anyhow I don't really know what I'm talking about, but all the information I've presented leads me to doubt.