Nostr notes by Jenny Chase

China's government tells companies "for the love of all ...

2026-04-21T08:58:31Z

China's government tells companies "for the love of all that is good please stop making so many solar panels".

https://www.miit.gov.cn/gyhxxhb/jgsj/dzxxsnew/gzdt/art/2026/art_95dc0471cfb84266b375da36914d20a6.html

The reason I regularly feel compelled to defend the energy / ...

2026-03-12T09:40:08Z

The reason I regularly feel compelled to defend the energy / climate progress of the UK (the country of my birth) is that the UK is actually doing pretty well. And you would not know that from the UK news! It's a British trait to believe we must be doing badly, our efforts are in vain, nothing we do will ever work - but it's not true here! All the 'green crap' is genuinely reducing the UK's demand for fossil fuels, and also its CO2 emissions!

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-emissions-fall-2-4-in-2025-as-coal-hits-400-year-low/

Struck by the last line: "Bangladesh announced plans to close ...

2026-03-09T08:37:39Z

Struck by the last line: "Bangladesh announced plans to close all universities from Monday, bringing forward the Eid al-Fitr holidays as part of an emergency bid to conserve electricity and fuel."

I think a lot about how abundant fossil fuels have allowed us in rich countries to largely ignore the seasons, or the cost of resources. Not everyone has that luxury. (And extra holiday sounds great, but think about all the planning it throws awry).

(From https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/09/iran-war-drives-oil-price-above-100-a-barrel-for-first-time-since-2022)

RE: https://mastodon.green/@solar_chase/115405274671180986 Small ...

2026-03-03T16:59:38Z

RE: https://mastodon.green/@solar_chase/115405274671180986

Small victories: BNEF has changed its definition of long-duration storage to this! Thank you BNEF's LDES queen Yiyi Zhou.
nostr:note1kgwuzm0x2w4zlg22suax6vdqgtjhk9ncjacwmssme750dlaf2lgsc3dhw2

RE: https://vis.social/@infobeautiful/116109430224379547 Hi, ...

2026-02-23T04:57:16Z

RE: https://vis.social/@infobeautiful/116109430224379547

Hi, it's me, from the "BloombergNEF" cited in that chart. While directionally accurate, 2024 was not over 600GW (2025 was about 655GW but this chart is older than that). There is uncertainty around solar build data but not that much.

So it's a bad construction using incorrect data and I wish it would stop spreading around.
nostr:note1c5r9rl9m24pl4xytzecenx2zgedf3s4s0gc33n54uecpgw3zxalsf90dce

One of my favourite things about the globalization of the English ...

2026-01-30T11:53:19Z

One of my favourite things about the globalization of the English language is that my Chinese colleagues use "overseas" to mean "outside China".

"Overseas" makes sense to mean "other countries" from a Great-Britain-centric perspective! But, er, China is not an island. Most of Europe is not across a sea from China. It is an odd linguistic fossil (which, unfortunately, I feel obliged to edit out because it is also really unclear).

This is, unfortunately, very funny. ...

2026-01-21T14:34:52Z

This is, unfortunately, very funny.

https://www.ft.com/content/ab4f0109-7735-412e-aa81-fdffc94674ed

This is very interesting about microplastics detected in ...

2026-01-13T14:56:58Z

This is very interesting about microplastics detected in medicinal trials (or, probably, not detected).

My personal crank level on microplastics-in-own-body worry is 'bought some steel tins instead of plastic ones to put hot food in'.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2026/jan/13/microplastics-human-body-doubt

Photovoltaics fed about 16.9% of German-generated electricity ...

2026-01-12T13:45:14Z

Photovoltaics fed about 16.9% of German-generated electricity into the grid in 2025, according to the Bundesnetzagentur (this excludes selfconsumption). Renewables at 58.8% overall.

https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/DE/2026/20260105_Smard.html

First day back at work after maternity leave, and in my new ...

2026-01-05T15:52:24Z

First day back at work after maternity leave, and in my new office in the basement (the baby has my old office). I have company.

When feeding the baby: wash hands, boil the water, clean the ...

2025-12-31T13:49:21Z

When feeding the baby: wash hands, boil the water, clean the bottles with hot soapy water, sterilise the gherkin jar we mix it up in...

The baby: sucks the floor

The UK got 54.7% of its electricity generation from renewables in ...

2025-12-18T09:44:47Z

The UK got 54.7% of its electricity generation from renewables in the third quarter of 2025. Though because nuclear and hydro generation were down year-on-year, gas generation was also up.

(Also, UK government at last revising its historical solar numbers up from 3Q 2020! We have known for years it was wrong).

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6941a0321d8a56d23b7f0b4d/Energy_Trends_December_2025.pdf

World Scientific Publishing has a deal on my book for Kindle - ...

2025-12-17T13:15:25Z

World Scientific Publishing has a deal on my book for Kindle - $20 or £20 - until the end of February 2026.

(Or, as usual, ask your local library for it.)

Pedant point but as a former (failed, student) physicist I hate ...

2025-12-05T08:46:00Z

Pedant point but as a former (failed, student) physicist I hate the word "electrons" being used for "electricity". While electrons are complicated (are they a wave? A particle? Beta radiation?) they're definitely not a substance you pour into a wire.

yeah but the easy, resource-plentiful world we live in, where we ...

2025-11-02T19:20:45Z

In reply to nevent1q…8ukp
_________________________

yeah but the easy, resource-plentiful world we live in, where we are talking to each other via magic boxes from the comfort of our warm-ish homes, owning several changes of clothes and cupboards of food and cooking implements? Also the product of many, many industry disruptions. Don't see many weavers or tinkers or coal men any more.

(I fear AI's impact on the information environment. That's not the same as bemoaning all progress.)

This is a good article with some phenomenal numbers (AI data ...

2025-11-02T07:17:44Z

This is a good article with some phenomenal numbers (AI data centers might represent 92% of US GDP growth in the first half of 2025?) and some less so (30GW of power isn't, on a global scale, actually that much. It can still be a lot locally).

The thing about financial bubbles is that it's really difficult to place a bet on them bursting, so the incentives of nearly all sophisticated financial players are in propping them up.

https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2025/10/data-centers-ai-crash/684765

18. It is very difficult for installers and financiers to become ...

2025-10-20T07:17:23Z

In reply to nevent1q…eecc
_________________________

18. It is very difficult for installers and financiers to become large and long-term profitable in the residential solar and storage market. Margins are thin and there are diseconomies of scale.

2. 20 years ago when I got this job, I thought maybe solar would ...

2025-10-20T07:09:13Z

In reply to nevent1q…5xx4
_________________________

2. 20 years ago when I got this job, I thought maybe solar would one day be 1% of global electricity supply. In 2024 it was about 7% worldwide, and rising fast. You can see this eating into fossil fuel power generation in, for example, Europe.

Time to make 2025 updates to my annual “opinions about solar” ...

2025-10-20T07:04:50Z

Time to make 2025 updates to my annual “opinions about solar” thread. If you like these, you might like the second edition of my book, Solar Power Finance Without The Jargon. A 30% discount code WSQ0437 is valid on publisher website until end of Nov 2025.

It's the book I should have read before trying to get a job in renewable energy. Reviewers describe it as “to the point, important, and taught me a lot” and “surprisingly entertaining, don’t be put off by the title”.

https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/q0437#t=aboutBook

fwiw I went with option 2. The Net Zero Scenario modelling my ...

2025-08-19T03:02:02Z

In reply to nevent1q…0qa3
_________________________

fwiw I went with option 2.

The Net Zero Scenario modelling my firm does assumes only the planned nuclear pipeline, mostly in China and South Korea, gets built. It uses a massive buildout of wind, solar and batteries to mostly-decarbonise power and transport.

But then it ends up relying on CCS to cover industrial emissions and, honestly, I personally have more hope of a nuclear renaissance than a massive CCS sector.

I do bloody love this chart. Who'd have thought, 20 years ago ...

2025-08-06T07:37:47Z

I do bloody love this chart. Who'd have thought, 20 years ago when I started this job, that solar would be ~10% of world electricity generation by 2024 - and over 20% in some countries, rising rapidly in others?

Definitely not me. When I started this job I hoped that I could be part of a solution for maybe 1% of global electricity generation.

Me calling the avian vet: please I need an appointment, my goose ...

2025-08-05T18:12:03Z

Me calling the avian vet: please I need an appointment, my goose is sick

Vet's receptionist: what are the symptoms?

Me: she's quiet

VR: ok but what are the symptoms

Me: you don't understand she is a quiet goose she is going to DIE

(I have an appointment. I am genuinely extremely worried about her. I am also worried because I have a two hour hospital appointment re: pregnancy immediately before, and probably cannot take the goose to it).

Today I am enjoying this article about a bird, or rather three ...

2025-07-18T09:47:19Z

Today I am enjoying this article about a bird, or rather three birds, used as a plot point in the 2000 Charlie's Angel film and the solution to a 25-year-old mystery.

("no animal handler would ever have included a pygmy nuthatch, not just because they are small, colorless, and unlikely to grab a viewer’s eye. They are also illegal to cast in a movie.. ")

https://slate.com/culture/2025/05/birds-movies-charlies-angels-2000-pygmy-nuthatch.html

Redcurrants are so bloody beautiful, man. ...

2025-07-06T12:06:27Z

Redcurrants are so bloody beautiful, man.

I really like running the airconditioning on solar power. ...

2025-07-04T14:10:06Z

I really like running the airconditioning on solar power.

Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC)—a government-backed body under ...

2025-06-09T06:38:16Z

Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC)—a government-backed body under the Ministry of Finance - to allocate 2GW of underutilised coal capacity to, uh, Bitcoin mining and Artificial Intelligence (AI) data centers.

(I feel like this isn't great but what else was the Pakistan grid going to do? It's astonishing that a country with 248m people, only about 50GW of big ongrid power plants, and economic growth has a *power surplus*, at least partly because of small solar. )

https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/pakistan-redirects-2gw-to-bitcoin-mining-and-ai-data-centers/

Can't move, goslings on feet. ...

2025-06-07T18:12:57Z

Can't move, goslings on feet.

In the US? Want to become a solar expert? Consider joining my ...

2025-06-05T14:58:12Z

In the US? Want to become a solar expert? Consider joining my team.

https://bloomberg.avature.net/careers/JobDetail/BloombergNEF-US-Solar-Analyst/12187

This afternoon the smallest gosling developed an eye infection ...

2025-06-03T21:00:48Z

This afternoon the smallest gosling developed an eye infection with two hours until the vet closed and the car out with my husband.

Apologies to the other bus passengers wondering why a heavily pregnant woman holding her jacket closed was carrying a dirty bucket, with the jacket making loud sleepy trills.

(We now have animal antibiotic eye drops).

Small Child is in charge of naming the goslings. In consequence ...

2025-06-01T10:12:19Z

Small Child is in charge of naming the goslings. In consequence this little gander, the smallest of the group, is Darth Maul.

the Netherlands has about 18 million people. It's not clear ...

2025-05-27T05:35:53Z

In reply to nevent1q…wd34
_________________________

the Netherlands has about 18 million people. It's not clear how many use data centers but it is a much, much larger number.

This sort of comparison always strikes me as a bit "oh no, a large number of people, many of them in developed countries, are using energy comparable to that of a small number of Westeners - shocking!"

I think there are much better arguments against frivolous and fraudulent use of AI, which is not all uses of AI.

Gratuitous gosling photos. ...

2025-05-24T17:25:01Z

Gratuitous gosling photos.

For the record (and because I happened to be looking this up) ...

2025-05-23T08:48:12Z

For the record (and because I happened to be looking this up) here is BNEF's best guess for how much data centers / AI drives up power demand, for our New Energy Outlook 2025:

"Data-center power capacity was an estimated 81 gigawatts in 2024, consuming 371 terawatt-
hours of electricity, or 1.4% of global final demand. We estimate their capacity will rapidly increase to 179GW by 2030 and 277GW by 2035...."

Goslings. Six now - the smallest two are now two days old. Three ...

2025-05-22T07:24:34Z

Goslings. Six now - the smallest two are now two days old. Three little ganders, three little geese. Utterly unbothered by the rain and chilly temperatures today.

Birthday party invitations are being written with a certain lack ...

2025-05-15T15:55:36Z

Birthday party invitations are being written with a certain lack of efficiency.

My favourite random new wind fact is that Romania and Bulgaria ...

2025-05-14T13:49:20Z

My favourite random new wind fact is that Romania and Bulgaria are not expected to build offshore wind by 2030, because the bridges in Istanbul are too low to let offshore wind installation vessels get into the Black Sea.

Client: so what are the major routes to decarbonising industry ...

2025-05-13T11:28:10Z

Client: so what are the major routes to decarbonising industry
Me: I have a live gosling under my shirt.

(This is a much better photo of him meeting his dad. Hopefully he will get some siblings to cuddle with soon.)

I have never yet used ChatGPT or equivalents. I do understand ...

2025-05-06T19:21:17Z

I have never yet used ChatGPT or equivalents. I do understand that, for specific and bounded uses in the hands of someone knowledgeable, they can be a timesaver.

I am meant to take a corporate training on them. As basically a machine for putting words and numbers into meaningful and pleasing configurations, I resent this in the same way a smart plough-horse might resent a tractor.

But mostly I fear the effect of huge volumes of plausible, often personalised misinformation.

One of the things about breeding and selling geese is that I love ...

2025-04-21T17:11:05Z

One of the things about breeding and selling geese is that I love geese, I adore geese, and yet when someone else expresses an interest in acquiring geese from me (especially this time of year) my natural response is "really? Are you sure? They're kind of arseholes."

When the topic of low Australian residential PV capex comes up, ...

2025-04-17T12:57:21Z

When the topic of low Australian residential PV capex comes up, people say "oh that's the SDC capex incentive". Which is indeed about AUD 0.37/W, according to my Oz colleagues.

But that still gives a total cost of build of only ~$0.82/W - vs $1.25/W for Germany. What gives?

My standard answer is "hypercompetitive and relatively low-regulation installation industry, roofs well suited to work without scaffolding, fairly standardized systems of average size ~8.1kW so not small". Any additions?

This is a database of reasons why solar and wind projects have ...

2025-04-03T15:32:22Z

This is a database of reasons why solar and wind projects have been rejected for planning permission in the US, collated by Robert Bryce.

https://robertbryce.com/renewable-rejection-database/

Thing that is true: solar panels are now almost unbelievably ...

2025-03-24T10:04:00Z

In reply to nevent1q…uvjr
_________________________

Thing that is true: solar panels are now almost unbelievably cheap, and batteries are going the same way.

Do not underestimate this factor. I do think we will have abundant electricity when it's sunny, and possibly even from spring to autumn.

That is still a constrained condition. Industrial decarbonization and winter remain hard problems. Sustainable aviation fuel is *incredibly* energy intensive, absolutely dwarfs the likely needs of AI and data centers.

Anyway I think we should build the sort of things I approve of ...

2025-03-24T08:55:23Z

In reply to nevent1q…q9th
_________________________

Anyway I think we should build the sort of things I approve of (renewables, bike lanes, public transport infrastructure, schools and hospitals and public libraries, dense high-quality housing near public transport nodes) and not build the sort of things I don't approve of.

I will be wanting to make these approvals on a case by case basis, so the sooner I am made dictator of the world, the better. [This last bit is a joke].

I feel like I should read Ezra Klein's Abundance. Apparently ...

2025-03-24T08:47:49Z

I feel like I should read Ezra Klein's Abundance. Apparently I'm quoted in chapter 2, and it is relevant to my interests, and I don't think one should ever have an opinion on a book without having read it. Also a lot of the criticism of it seems to be ad hominem / tribal solidarity dancing rather than analysis, and I disapprove of that.

But, ugh.

My two young ganders decided they wanted to be in a breeding ...

2025-03-23T18:29:30Z

My two young ganders decided they wanted to be in a breeding group with the same older female goose, and after a cursory effort to persuade them to be interested in the two young female geese, I gave up and let them.

There is minor drama - I think only Gale is actually mating with Ianthe and Wyll is kind of more into Gale - but they are much happier than the other breeding group. Which is three squabbling geese and one very confused gander who is always being told to attack someone by someone.

Saw one of the coop.ch delivery vans with solar in my village ...

2025-03-19T20:13:03Z

Saw one of the coop.ch delivery vans with solar in my village yesterday. First vehicle-integrated solar I have seem in the wild.

(I don't think it's actually an EV, but rather the solar and a battery runs the fridges inside. Looks like polymer encapsulant.)

A typical photovoltaic module sold in 2024 was mono TOPCon with ...

2025-03-18T11:05:00Z

A typical photovoltaic module sold in 2024 was mono TOPCon with 22.7% efficiency, at a price below $0.10/W.

A typical solar module sold in 2012 was multi AlBSF with efficiency of 15.4% and a price of about $0.87/W.

Terrace hedgehog has come out of hibernation. ...

2025-03-13T17:41:46Z

Terrace hedgehog has come out of hibernation.

After all these years I still find myself writing sentences like ...

2025-03-10T16:09:35Z

After all these years I still find myself writing sentences like "since 2022, nearly all solar modules used in large-scale solar plants have been bisexual".

BiFACIAL. They have been *bifacial*. You probably would not get ChatGPT making that mistake.

I think there's this weird myth that farmers dislike solar, ...

2025-03-10T11:11:58Z

I think there's this weird myth that farmers dislike solar, when actually farming is a really tough business (especially with climate change) and they'd much rather be doing almost anything else with the land.

Example, this time from the US: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/climate-lab/wa-ranchers-turn-to-new-crop-solar-power/

As the sun comes back with the tilting earth, this household has ...

2025-03-09T08:22:08Z

As the sun comes back with the tilting earth, this household has discovered a new source of relationship conflict: when to charge the electric car for optimal PV selfconsumption.

An hour later he was once again interrupted by the monkey's ...

2025-03-07T07:59:25Z

In reply to nevent1q…fx4l
_________________________

An hour later he was once again interrupted by the monkey's cries, and rushed next door, very angry, to find the monkey once again on top of the cabinet.

"I didn't do anything!" said the guest. "I swear! He just went up there!"

Philador looked down at the board. "Ah" he said. "Mate in five."

Suddenly he was interrupted by hoots of indignation, and he ...

2025-03-07T07:59:20Z

In reply to nevent1q…yhrg
_________________________

Suddenly he was interrupted by hoots of indignation, and he entered the lounge to find the monkey cowering at the top of a high cabinet.

"I'm so sorry" said the guest. "The monkey beat me at chess, so I hit it."

Philador was not very happy about that, but when the guest apologised profusely he allowed a second game.

Apparently a famous chess joke, via @npub136q…5683 telling it ...

2025-03-07T07:58:24Z

Apparently a famous chess joke, via Björn (npub136q…5683) telling it to Small Child this morning:

The great chess master (and opera composer) Philador was much sought after in his Paris home by players wishing to challenge him. This annoyed Philador, so he trained a monkey to play chess. The deal was that if you could beat the monkey, you could play against Philador.

One day the monkey was playing against a man in Philador's lounge, while the composer worked undisturbed in the room next door.

I think a lot these days about how for my parents, 'being ...

2025-02-23T19:14:40Z

I think a lot these days about how for my parents, 'being informed' means that they watch BBC News most nights and read the Observer on the weekend.

No social media. No absorption of news via random people who want you to be outraged or are angry that you're not angry enough for them.

They vote, and they spend a lot of time helping old people in their village get to doctor appointments, and they help with the Parish magazine.

...it increasingly feels like they have the right way of it.

A major principle of mine is "just because you had certain ...

2025-02-16T12:58:37Z

In reply to nevent1q…jnq8
_________________________

A major principle of mine is "just because you had certain expectations of an investment, does not mean the world is obliged to meet them unless a legal commitment was made".

Ugh I have to decide whether to wade into village politics on the ...

2025-02-16T12:33:07Z

Ugh I have to decide whether to wade into village politics on the subject of the local utility cutting the solar export rate, which is infuriating to my neighbours who bought solar.

Personally I am broadly on the side of the local utility. A well-planned energy transition for northern Europe requires more sophistication than just adding solar, which mostly generates when it's less needed. It probably even requires more than just solar + batteries.

But my German is not good enough for this...

Wait, the German Bundesnetzagentur reckons renewables were ...

2025-02-03T16:29:08Z

Wait, the German Bundesnetzagentur reckons renewables were *nearly 60%* of electricity generation in 2024?

https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/SharedDocs/Pressemitteilungen/DE/2025/20250108_EE.html?nn=659670

Though BDEW observes this is only about 20% of total primary energy use in the country. But look at that total go down year on year!

https://www.bdew.de/service/daten-und-grafiken/primaerenergieverbrauch/

Finally a warm enough day to sit outside with my geese. These ...

2025-01-25T12:59:09Z

Finally a warm enough day to sit outside with my geese. These days we have the older ones Samson, Stiorra and Ianthe, their daughters Orin and Ethel, and the two new bloodline ganders Wyll and Gale. Both young ganders are in love with Ianthe.

The one at the front is Samson. Geese should not be mistaken for cuddly toys, except for Samson.

I currently have a Baader-Meinhof phenomenon in effect regarding ...

2025-01-21T18:25:47Z

I currently have a Baader-Meinhof phenomenon in effect regarding the Madagascar Hissing Cockroach.

My TED talk on how cheap solar is changing the world, or at least ...

2025-01-13T18:04:05Z

My TED talk on how cheap solar is changing the world, or at least Pakistan, South Africa and California. And how difficult it is to get good data on solar.

https://www.ted.com/talks/jenny_chase_solar_energy_is_even_cheaper_than_you_think?subtitle=en

Renewables supplied 55% of electricity consumption in Germany in ...

2025-01-08T10:56:47Z

Renewables supplied 55% of electricity consumption in Germany in 2024, according to German utilities association BDEW. Energy sector carbon emissions down 9% from 2023. But many further challenges remain (this is a really good summary of what's going on btw).

https://www.bdew.de/presse/presseinformationen/energiewende-in-2025-weiterentwickeln-steuerbare-kraftwerke-zubauen-finanzierung-sicherstellen-stromkosten-daempfen/

2024 was an absolutely terrible year for sunshine in Europe, ...

2025-01-04T08:25:10Z

2024 was an absolutely terrible year for sunshine in Europe, right? My 13.2kW solar system generated just 9.98MWh; the lowest it's ever done before in a full year was 11.6MWh.

Also our consumption has risen because we bought an electric car in August, so for the first time we're not a net exporter - we used 11.3MWh this year!

Electric heavy goods vehicle was charging behind us at a German ...

2024-12-31T16:01:45Z

Electric heavy goods vehicle was charging behind us at a German motorway rest stop. Never seen one of those before.

In October I spoke with the Climate Curious podcast about solar ...

2024-12-20T07:45:47Z

In October I spoke with the Climate Curious podcast about solar power and what's happening there, and got a bit more broad about what can be done to fight against climate change.

https://tedxlondon.com/podcasts/how-solar-panels-became-the-darling-of-the-climate-movement/

There is a whole load of solar manufacturing capacity outside ...

2024-12-05T07:52:36Z

There is a whole load of solar manufacturing capacity outside China now.

(Shame it's generally quite expensive to operate).

Good news, I have permission from Marketing to post on Bluesky. I ...

2024-12-04T06:46:18Z

Good news, I have permission from Marketing to post on Bluesky. I have been posting on bluesky for over a year.

At some point I will ask for permission to post on Mastodon too.

I'm really more an "ask for forgiveness" type. In a large corporation, this is rather necessary.

Lol at the job title / subject mismatch. But yeah, total wind ...

2024-11-29T16:12:02Z

Lol at the job title / subject mismatch.

But yeah, total wind build this year is likely to be about 124GW. Solar's likely to be about 599GW, but remember solar capacity factors are 9-30% and wind capacity factors are usually 30-60%.

Good morning, and everything's under 20cm of snow. ...

2024-11-22T06:32:53Z

Good morning, and everything's under 20cm of snow.

Huge if true that Indonesia may try to retire its existing coal ...

2024-11-21T12:48:21Z

Huge if true that Indonesia may try to retire its existing coal plants in the next 15 years. Indonesia is substantially powered by cheap domestic coal, and so far has been very slow to do an energy transition.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-21/indonesia-s-prabowo-vows-to-retire-all-coal-plants-in-15-years?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-climate&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=climate&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic

Switzerland got 97.6% of its electricity from clean sources in ...

2024-11-15T09:40:03Z

Switzerland got 97.6% of its electricity from clean sources in 2023, says Nicolas Fulghum of Ember (which I trust).

He adds that "a crucial challenge is a growing mismatch between supply and demand in winter months", which, yeah. We are adding a lot of heatpumps and I can confirm that solar output does not meet much of heatpump demand.

Bjoern (husband, life partner, father of my child): I have a ...

2024-11-07T06:55:33Z

Bjoern (husband, life partner, father of my child): I have a confession to make.

Me: is it that you ate a lot of the Halloween chocolate. Because I know about that.

Bjoern: well that too. But no. I ordered something for Small Child you won't approve of.

Me: *sigh* is it a lightsaber?

Bjoern: no!

Me: oh?

Bjoern: there's no point in having just ONE lightsaber. I got two.

This is a good time to read a long, beautiful article about ...

2024-11-06T09:15:47Z

This is a good time to read a long, beautiful article about maintaining undersea cables.

https://www.theverge.com/c/24070570/internet-cables-undersea-deep-repair-ships

One of the best articles yet on why Pakistan has imported over ...

2024-11-06T07:06:29Z

One of the best articles yet on why Pakistan has imported over 30GW of solar modules in the past 4 years, and installed roughly 20GW.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/11/04/dealing-with-pakistans-solar-panel-glut/

Thoughts on two things: the main grid in famously dirty Australia ...

2024-11-04T07:08:47Z

Thoughts on two things: the main grid in famously dirty Australia ran on over 47% renewables in October.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/australia-reaches-record-monthly-renewable-share-of-47-4-per-cent/

And also my boss has once again been asked "won't the energy needs for transport and recycling of renewables derail the energy transition?"

What I'm not sure enough people know is that the energy transition is *happening*, and no, we are not snowed under with used solar panels. Solar panel production is still much lower volume than normal glass. It's fine.

If you haven't ordered my book yet but were thinking of it - ...

2024-10-25T14:45:54Z

If you haven't ordered my book yet but were thinking of it - the discount code on my publisher's website runs out at the end of October.

It might also make a good Christmas present for someone in your life, young or otherwise, who wants a career working against climate change.

(30% discount code WSQ0437 on

https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/q0437#t=aboutBook )

A thing about having a food garden is, you will frequently be ...

2024-10-22T05:52:49Z

A thing about having a food garden is, you will frequently be trying to figure out how to eat produce that, if you saw it in a shop, you'd just assume was spoiled beyond saving.

Just downloaded monthly grid generation data from Ember for ...

2024-10-17T06:51:03Z

Just downloaded monthly grid generation data from Ember for Pakistan, and it looks like on-grid electricity generation Jan to August 2024 was down 6% from Jan to August 2023. Probably some impact from the >15GW of solar panels imported this year.

https://ember-climate.org/data-catalogue/monthly-electricity-data/

The price we get paid for exports from our PV system is dropping ...

2024-10-11T07:33:45Z

The price we get paid for exports from our PV system is dropping from 0.23 Swiss francs to about 0.04 per kWh next year (adjusted quarterly based on federal market price reference).

This is a good thing, as it was far too high to be sustainable and took no account of solar's reduced value now that the Swiss grid has lots. Also it will encourage us to be smarter about charging our car when it's sunny - so far this year we've only self-consumed 30% of electricity production.

I am generally optimistic about us as a species pulling off an ...

2024-10-09T12:56:12Z

I am generally optimistic about us as a species pulling off an energy and climate transition, but these charts from David Hostert at the #BNEFSummit , showing the "brutal maths" of required emissions cuts for 1.75 degrees C, are fucking terrifying.

[Edited to add "for 1.75 degrees C". I mean, if we miss that, 2C is still better than 2.6C. And btw 2.6C is the Economic Transition Scenario].

The global semiconductor and solar industries will not collapse ...

2024-10-02T06:52:58Z

The global semiconductor and solar industries will not collapse because of flooding at Spruce Pine, North Carolina. In case this was worrying you.

While mines in this town do supply quartz to make the inner layer of most ingot-casting crucibles (about 20,000 tons per year), there are (slightly more expensive) alternatives.

40. While moving to a circular economy with 100% recycling rates ...

2024-09-28T11:40:21Z

In reply to nevent1q…f89v
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40. While moving to a circular economy with 100% recycling rates is essential in the long run, it’s not a challenge for PV in particular; few PV panels have been recycled to date only because the vast majority are still in use. It can be, and is being, done.

Also if you think recycling rates and amount of mining required for renewables is bad, just wait until you hear about fossil fuels.

39. The US Inflation Reduction Act includes a licence to print ...

2024-09-28T11:39:40Z

In reply to nevent1q…9edg
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39. The US Inflation Reduction Act includes a licence to print money for solar manufacturers and hydrogen firms. It’s good for clean energy, but it's also like hitting the accelerator on a car with the handbrake on. The handbrake is trade barriers, grid and permitting issues.

38. While it’s easy to get very excited about offgrid solar, ...

2024-09-28T11:39:32Z

In reply to nevent1q…fufa
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38. While it’s easy to get very excited about offgrid solar, most of these markets are very small. Pakistan, Nigeria and South Africa are middle-income countries with specific reasons to boom. It’s still hard to sell stuff to very poor people!

37. Nigeria is another market to watch. In 2023 the government ...

2024-09-28T11:39:25Z

In reply to nevent1q…cmu0
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37. Nigeria is another market to watch. In 2023 the government briefly removed subsidies on gasoline for the country’s fleet of private generators, which is much larger than its central power grid. Although gasoline subsidies were reinstated, PV sales continue steadily.

35. Solar is not just for the rich any more, nor is it all being ...

2024-09-28T11:39:03Z

In reply to nevent1q…wp5j
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35. Solar is not just for the rich any more, nor is it all being built with subsidies or support. Many of Pakistan’s factories now have solar on their roofs, of which regulator NEPRA does not seem to have any record.

36. Pakistan power demand fell 9.1% in 2023, and one reason is the rise of solar panels. The country imported 13GW of solar panels in 1H 2024, and the current total on-grid power capacity is about 50GW, so this is a story to watch.

34. Annual build volumes of solar are rising, but they are not ...

2024-09-28T11:38:22Z

In reply to nevent1q…5nfm
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34. Annual build volumes of solar are rising, but they are not guaranteed to rise forever. Lower power prices in Europe take the urgency out of the market. Parts of China already have solar grid congestion which is slowing build.

32. Ordinary people have no idea how much progress we’ve made. ...

2024-09-28T11:36:30Z

In reply to nevent1q…dne3
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32. Ordinary people have no idea how much progress we’ve made. Tell people at parties that UK carbon emissions in 2023 were at their lowest level since 1879, for example. Most developed economies are now reducing carbon emissions without lowering quality of life.

33. …It would still really help if rich people would stop pissing carbon into the atmosphere for no reason.

30. We’re finally getting serious about net zero carbon. ...

2024-09-28T11:36:17Z

In reply to nevent1q…x4we
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30. We’re finally getting serious about net zero carbon. Getting that last 5-20% of carbon out of power will be hard, and require some expensive solutions. The first 80-95% is easy-ish but we're getting on with it.

31. You can be cynical about government and corporate net zero emissions targets if you like, but they're a lot better than no net zero emissions targets.

28. Heatpumps are better for heating homes than hydrogen, but in ...

2024-09-28T11:36:02Z

In reply to nevent1q…pych
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28. Heatpumps are better for heating homes than hydrogen, but in seasonal climates like northern Europe will exacerbate the seasonal demand and supply mismatch for solar. We need to build wind and probably nuclear as well.

29. Nuclear is safer than coal and climate change, and better than gas unless the gas plants are running very rarely. Batteries should help with the unfavourable ramping economics of nuclear (you *can* turn nuclear plants up and down, but you really don’t want to).

26. Decarbonizing aviation is hard. The CEO of Lufthansa said in ...

2024-09-28T11:35:48Z

In reply to nevent1q…tjn0
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26. Decarbonizing aviation is hard. The CEO of Lufthansa said in 2023 that running its fleet on sustainable aviation fuel made from electricity would take half Germany’s current electricity demand. BNEF thinks this an underestimate.

27. Direct electrification of aviation would be better. BNEF research did track orders for 989 electric aircraft (mostly small ones) as of early 2022. Fingers crossed.

(Paywall,
https://bnef.com/insights/30267 ).

25. Electrification of transport is far better than biofuels; for ...

2024-09-28T11:35:15Z

In reply to nevent1q…73g8
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25. Electrification of transport is far better than biofuels; for example, as the speakers discuss on this podcast, it takes about 300 acres of farmland to run petrol cars on corn ethanol the same annual distance as electric cars running on one acre of PV.

https://www.volts.wtf/p/whats-going-on-with-biofuels#details

24. BNEF's mid cumulative solar forecast is 6.7TW by 2030, ...

2024-09-28T11:35:03Z

In reply to nevent1q…yy99
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24. BNEF's mid cumulative solar forecast is 6.7TW by 2030, close to the 7.2TW BNEF models that we need to be on a global net-zero-by-2050 high-renewables path. Wind is 2.1TW forecast and 2.7TW net-zero pathway, a bigger miss.

22. Hydrogen made with renewables will be used to make steel and ...

2024-09-28T11:33:38Z

In reply to nevent1q…ygw9
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22. Hydrogen made with renewables will be used to make steel and fertiliser. Some may be used to make shipping and aviation fuel. Some may even be burned for power in weeks of low renewables, which is one way to shift energy from summer to winter.

23. ...but sometimes net-zero electricity models want to use hydrogen to cover weeks of low renewables just because the model isn’t given any other option. Deep decarbonization models do weird things. There may be easier pathways in practice.

21. BNEF’s New Energy Outlook modelling doesn’t want to just ...

2024-09-28T11:33:34Z

In reply to nevent1q…4d2s
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21. BNEF’s New Energy Outlook modelling doesn’t want to just solve the intermittency problem with loads of batteries. This is because the batteries get lower utilization rates the more you build. Batteries cannibalize batteries long before you get 100% clean power.

19. We oughtta be building more wind. Seriously, solar will get ...

2024-09-28T11:33:09Z

In reply to nevent1q…uur4
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19. We oughtta be building more wind. Seriously, solar will get built anyway, but wind needs some help, and wind blows in the dark and in the winter. Solar usually hurts wind farm economics even though generation is somewhat anti-correlated.

20. To put it another way: when you tell an energy future model to optimise a power portfolio for clean power adequacy, it will give you more wind and less solar than when you tell it to optimise a least-cost electricity sector development.

17. It may be that "negative power prices for a few hours ...

2024-09-28T11:31:41Z

In reply to nevent1q…wdgl
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17. It may be that "negative power prices for a few hours every sunny day, followed by high evening power prices when the sun goes down" is a problem solved by capitalism and batteries.

18. However, there is no way we can build a big enough battery to shift energy from summer to winter. The economics of battery storage are impossible at one cycle a year.

15. One big difference between edition 1 and 2 of my book is that ...

2024-09-28T11:31:26Z

In reply to nevent1q…k7ga
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15. One big difference between edition 1 and 2 of my book is that batteries are now a thing. California has 11GW of batteries in a grid with about 50GW peak power demand, and the reliability of the grid has improved as its carbon emissions went down.

16. Small-scale batteries are a thing too, even though the economics don’t always make sense. 2023 battery attachment rates – proportion of residential PV buyers who get a battery too – are >70% in Germany and Italy, >50% in Switzerland.

13. By 2030 most countries will have spot power prices of zero in ...

2024-09-28T11:30:23Z

In reply to nevent1q…7mue
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13. By 2030 most countries will have spot power prices of zero in sunny hours. This will be passed on to end consumers, to encourage them to shift power demand to sunny periods by electric vehicle and battery charging, preheating, precooling, etc.

14. Low power prices may be great for consumers but they are very bad if you're trying to build more clean power plants. Without demand-side flexibility measures, the energy transition will fail before fully pushing fossil fuel out of the mix.

11. Solar power price cannibalization also affects other power ...

2024-09-28T11:29:53Z

In reply to nevent1q…y8x7
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11. Solar power price cannibalization also affects other power plants, but not as much as it affects solar, because solar plants generate most at times when solar is pushing the price down most. This will inhibit further solar build.

12. This is already obvious in Spain, California, Australia. Now that the global liquefied natural gas price hike related to Russia invading Ukraine in 2022 has eased, lower power prices drive solar developers to seek long-term contracts again.