2026-10-29T03:44:57Z https://njump.me Eric S. Raymond https://njump.me/npub14cvrhs0lpp0um0a5zymwqmr4ywrdtxmhm6f0ssmtuc7jmc78tu8sc3lu8k https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/925069606/ecsllogo2.png https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/925069606/ecsllogo2.png https://njump.me/nevent1qqs9qm2yc78jukqa9wgzr8a9zx5tpe5x4tx58x73kzjm79fknqnre8szyzhpsw7pluy9lndlksgndcrvw53cd4vmwl0f97zrd0nr6t0rca0s7vz9rfq We&#39;ve seen this movie before, it&#39;s a very common attempt to manipulate the voter pool. <br/><br/>Phase 1: Bogus polls put the Democrat way ahead during most of the run-up in an attempt to demoralize Republican voters.<br/><br/>Phase 2: Bogus polls are allowed to tighten to a very narrow D lead just before the election. An honest poll would show a huge R lead.<br/><br/>Phase 3: Ballot fraud steals the election. The purpose of the bogus polls was to supply top cover for the fraud.<br/><br/>It&#39;s a tale as old as time.<br/><a href="https://bird.makeup/users/moroskostas/statuses/2111856343565090825">https://bird.makeup/users/moroskostas/statuses/2111856343565090825</a><blockquote class="border-l-05rem border-l-strongpink border-solid"><div class="-ml-4 bg-gradient-to-r from-gray-100 dark:from-zinc-800 to-transparent mr-0 mt-0 mb-4 pl-4 pr-2 py-2">quoting <br/><span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Article"><a itemprop="url" href="/note1hslwtftpasgqz0x4tude2aekdnlrqjadh2mt7x4u5l9pd0mxgtnq48fn70" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1">note1hsl…fn70</a></span><br/> </div> Texas polls converging on much smaller Talarico leads than they showed a month ago. From 5-7 point leads down to just 1-3 points. <br/><br/>Either the massive Paxton rescue effort is working, or the Talarico leads were always BS. <br/><br/>Regardless, in a tie race in the polls, I'd probably rather be Paxton based on Texas fundamentals.<br/><a href="https://bird.makeup/users/iapolls2022/statuses/2111820629338997064">https://bird.makeup/users/iapolls2022/statuses/2111820629338997064</a><br/><span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Article"><a itemprop="url" href="/note1kact5l7dve5uj9vdwkz39cwxgf30knzvdhuf9d69wxxya35jeymq3vz2fh" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1">note1kac…z2fh</a></span><br/> </blockquote> 2026-10-18T16:44:00Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsr5u0m7waq4zlqu593xrl5u4tf2clm73w2c2saugn3dhhedwkwj9czyzhpsw7pluy9lndlksgndcrvw53cd4vmwl0f97zrd0nr6t0rca0s77xc70l &#34;Ban guns and there will be less gun deaths&#34;<br/><br/>Listen up, because I&#39;m going to explain why this isn&#39;t true. <br/><br/>If you ban guns, most law-abiding people won&#39;t keep them. This might reduce gun deaths slightly, but law-abiding people basically don&#39;t shoot each other much. You get the occasional crime of passion and the odd gun accident, but these are rare enough to be almost statistical noise. <br/><br/>What you would see is a large drop in gun suicides. But one of the things that is well known about suicide statistics is the people who really want to kill themselves readily substitute means. So they would off themselves in other ways, for no net decrease in anything we really care about.<br/><br/>Meanwhile, criminals are going to laugh at your gun ban. They will still have firearms. They will still kill each other with firearms at a pretty horrific rate that we couldn&#39;t expect to change much after the ban.<br/><br/>What will change is that criminals will see firearms as a more effective tool for predation, because the victim population is disarmed and can&#39;t shoot back. There will be more crime, and more gun deaths, because of this.<br/><br/>This isn&#39;t just theory. We can study longitudinal crime statistics in jurisdictions before and after gun bans and see it in practice. <br/><br/>To &#34;reduce gun deaths&#34; significantly, you&#39;d have to find a way to remove guns from the hands of criminals, and then keep them inaccessible to criminals. There is no known way to do this that actually works reliably, and doesn&#39;t have other costs that are too high for a free society to pay.<br/><a href="https://bird.makeup/users/donzzombiie/statuses/2111177752690778491">https://bird.makeup/users/donzzombiie/statuses/2111177752690778491</a> 2026-10-17T18:06:13Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqswlw5pj26akj6f5nudpz5ccdk5jwzz6hqylrr0vslnf542ve9p98czyzhpsw7pluy9lndlksgndcrvw53cd4vmwl0f97zrd0nr6t0rca0s7j00rr6 There&#39;s something parallel that goes on in the United States that I think explains some of the left-liberal fixation on gun control.<br/><br/>Black men commit violent crimes at a rate way out of proportion to their 6% share of the population in the US - somewhere around 58% of murders,<br/><a href="https://bird.makeup/users/slatzism/statuses/2110451894753906826">https://bird.makeup/users/slatzism/statuses/2110451894753906826</a><br/>nostr:note1yy2qj7lh56gx8gfmv8afxnefpjz4dlxkyf2y9j69662g4lvx65hskjc6k5<br/> 2026-10-14T23:39:15Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs2qe22797v0dzxgvznwtlj6te74mdxml3g95axhfc7edlt739zsuczyzhpsw7pluy9lndlksgndcrvw53cd4vmwl0f97zrd0nr6t0rca0s7aa0eyy This is the doom I predicted a few days ago, coming for Photoshop. A clean-room open-source reimplementation.<br/><br/>No prizes for guessing that they decompiled Photoshop to source code, processed that to some kind of non-code specification language, then fed the spec to an LLM with an instruction to generate Rust.<br/><br/>Adobe just got nuked. And closed source is dead, dead, dead.<br/><br/><a href="https://github.com/storytold/photocraft">https://github.com/storytold/photocraft</a> 2026-10-06T19:59:00Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsdxw84fgjxs4nl7707ayrqdlp2c7uwe34j269gya6yppejyrvhszqzyzhpsw7pluy9lndlksgndcrvw53cd4vmwl0f97zrd0nr6t0rca0s7q4l0dc Announcing open-adventure release 1.22<br/><br/>Your system package manager probably knows this as &#39;open-adventure&#39;<br/><br/>Colossal Cave Adventure, the 1995 430-point version.<br/><br/>This is the last descendant of the original 1976 Colossal Cave Adventure worked on by the original authors - Crowther 2026-07-09T01:24:58Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs2ghkux9fec36payr8mv9376mz5eev37hxe4we2eg7rat85akztkqzyzhpsw7pluy9lndlksgndcrvw53cd4vmwl0f97zrd0nr6t0rca0s7v7fja3 Elon is the hero of our century, so far.<br/><br/>It&#39;s going to take a lot to top what he&#39;s done for civilization.<br/><a href="https://bird.makeup/users/multiplanet1/statuses/2074485837006598161">https://bird.makeup/users/multiplanet1/statuses/2074485837006598161</a><blockquote class="border-l-05rem border-l-strongpink border-solid"><div class="-ml-4 bg-gradient-to-r from-gray-100 dark:from-zinc-800 to-transparent mr-0 mt-0 mb-4 pl-4 pr-2 py-2">quoting <br/><span itemprop="mentions" itemscope itemtype="https://schema.org/Article"><a itemprop="url" href="/note1jytwg48wssjh0wmxtpr7rww58njuvm75fqtwzh5zgfvkt40yy97qyarztr" class="bg-lavender dark:prose:text-neutral-50 dark:text-neutral-50 dark:bg-garnet px-1">note1jyt…rztr</a></span><br/> </div> Elon Musk once admitted that during the worst year of his life he would wake up every morning and immediately vomit from stress before he could even get out of bed.<br/><br/>This wasn't when he was broke. This wasn't before he made his money. This was while he was running Tesla and SpaceX simultaneously, sleeping on the factory floor, and watching both companies almost die in real time. He described the feeling as "chewing glass while staring into the abyss."<br/><br/>Reporters asked him why he didn't just sell everything and retire. He had already made $180 million from PayPal. He could have bought a house on an island and never worked again.<br/><br/>His answer was quiet. He said he couldn't. Not because of ego. Because if SpaceX failed, nobody else was going to try to make humanity multiplanetary for another 20 years. And 20 years might be too late.<br/><br/>He chose the vomiting. He chose the abyss. Not because he wanted to suffer. Because he didn't trust anyone else to care enough to do it. </blockquote> 2026-07-08T02:28:12Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsgh2ufj66u467x96p4f0dyh2295d3z2gcsyq3rrsa2ty7jg8zasxqzyzhpsw7pluy9lndlksgndcrvw53cd4vmwl0f97zrd0nr6t0rca0s7p9z0aw In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsgmuzr902rym48hmqcul2a0q6j9ggkzwrzvgurmk44emzqpy5e5fcxdjcqf'>nevent1q…jcqf</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>I can sort of understand why Y2K and climate alarmism might look like similarly baseless panics from the outside, but...I&#39;m a software engineer. I was a software engineer in 1999.<br/><br/>The difference is this: the climate alarmists have to play numerological voodoo with a bunch of computer models to justify their disaster predictions. That stuff is pretty thoroughly uncoupled from the physical world and depends on some major assumptions that are false-to-fact. It gets pushed anyway because it&#39;s a vehicle for certain people to get power over others. <br/><br/>Y2K was the opposite in every respect. Nobody was pushing it as a vehicle for political power, which meant you could actually &#34;trust the science&#34;, as quaint and laughable as that concept seems today.<br/><br/>And the science was not voodoo. Nasty crash bugs due to date field overflows are a real thing - I&#39;ve seen a few myself. Worries that they might lead to a disaster cascade as lots of critical systems broke down simultaneously weren&#39;t crazy at the time, even if they did turn out to be wrong.<br/><br/>In the last years of the century a lot of people did a lot of hard work on mitigation measures, especially in banking systems and finance. It&#39;s hard to know how much worse things would have been without those mitigations, but there are plausible scenarios that would have been pretty ugly.<br/><br/>I blame the media for the widespread perception that Y2K was some sort of fake crisis, rather than a potentially serious problem that was skillfully averted. They overhyped it just like the string of bogus panics we&#39;ve become used to, because of course they did. But there was some reality underneath this one. 2025-08-19T20:39:01Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqszmqln0rnv7zp2hrj7slcnlpmf2kaztypqdd5csps5pw07vzelkgqzyzhpsw7pluy9lndlksgndcrvw53cd4vmwl0f97zrd0nr6t0rca0s7y7y0vc In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsxwjgynah3yq6uulky22yv98shvgrtzyyrflerkutuuglf375tf4sm0xl4r'>nevent1q…xl4r</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Would that it were that simple.<br/><br/>The problem with faith-centered monotheisms is that they have a persistent habit of forming murder mobs to kill everyone who doesn&#39;t participate in their delusional system.<br/><br/>That outweighs the pro-sociality in my mind, especially since various traits of mine put me high on the murder list. 2025-08-07T13:44:55Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs9vttm7nsr86jckx7gsrhc3lzhqn56rlezj3vq4d9qqv33k3u08xszyzhpsw7pluy9lndlksgndcrvw53cd4vmwl0f97zrd0nr6t0rca0s79er43f In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqs9yfxh29xy50rlfh6wggcgrjl6wdn0m2sjzlssupm0rdsggk099rqayg7zf'>nevent1q…g7zf</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Dude. Stick to posting about sexual selection. You&#39;re smart about that. You&#39;re dumb about this. 2025-08-07T02:03:32Z