Nostr notes by PREDYX

Will Bitcoin hard fork to change PoW and restrict arbitrary data ...

2026-08-10T19:03:23Z

Will Bitcoin hard fork to change PoW and restrict arbitrary data in 2026?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bitcoin-hard-fork-to-change-pow-and-restrict-arbitrary-data-in-2026-1786386596?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=28ed705e-e846-436b-9068-3cd1e775143d&shareKind=market

Two more days until Argentina takes on Spain for the 2026 FIFA ...

2026-07-17T21:36:29Z

Two more days until Argentina takes on Spain for the 2026 FIFA World Cup 🏆

Current odds on PREDYX
🇪🇸 Spain - 62%
🇦🇷 Argentina - 36%

https://beta.predyx.com/market/fifa-world-cup-winner-2026-1766404951?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=084b5d35-c327-403a-bd64-8f9e30c790af&shareKind=market

With just three weeks until BIP-110's mandatory signaling ...

2026-07-17T21:35:48Z

With just three weeks until BIP-110's mandatory signaling period begins, the RDTS has an 11% chance of activating and being enforced on Bitcoin's timechain.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-activate-and-be-enforced-on-bitcoin-by-sept-1-2026-1770282509?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=1b4c4cb4-2bf5-4527-be09-7e7a791be089&shareKind=market

JUST IN: World's largest Bitcoin mining pool Foundry USA to ...

2026-07-17T15:22:54Z

JUST IN: World's largest Bitcoin mining pool Foundry USA to let pool account owners vote on signaling BIP-110

NEW - 2026 The Open Championship Winner 🇬🇧 ⛳️ ...

2026-07-13T15:08:59Z

NEW - 2026 The Open Championship Winner 🇬🇧 ⛳️

https://beta.predyx.com/market/2026-the-open-championship-british-open-winner-1783859369?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=d2b88692-9bd6-457e-99f8-558fe0e32539&shareKind=market

NEW - Will Adam Back's BSTR complete its SPAC merger to ...

2026-07-13T15:08:03Z

NEW - Will Adam Back's BSTR complete its SPAC merger to become a publicly traded company in 2026?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/adam-backs-bstr-goes-public-2026-1783865193?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=526f0fdf-2447-4bcd-a2db-a39db0ecb042&shareKind=market

NEW - Peak hash rate signaling for BIP-110 by October 2026 ...

2026-07-13T15:05:33Z

NEW - Peak hash rate signaling for BIP-110 by October 2026

https://beta.predyx.com/market/peak-hash-rate-signaling-for-bip-110-october-2026-1783950842?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=b8234109-b8dd-4af4-8991-62fe83f15a25&shareKind=market

Three quarterfinals remain ⚽️ France 🇫🇷 has separated ...

2026-07-10T17:47:58Z

Three quarterfinals remain ⚽️

France 🇫🇷 has separated from the pack as the World Cup favorite at 36%

Argentina 🇦🇷 and Spain 🇪🇸 are leading the chase.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/fifa-world-cup-winner-2026-1766404951?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=781dd960-b5db-4417-ba43-238ca9d5cb94&shareKind=market

Past Bitcoin soft forks that achieved their miner signaling ...

2026-07-10T17:45:50Z

Past Bitcoin soft forks that achieved their miner signaling lock-in thresholds early, before their activation timeout windows expired:

1. CheckSequenceVerify (2016)
2. SegWit (2017)
3. Taproot (2021)

Will RDTS be next?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-lock-in-before-activation-1783355471?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=be700487-7e83-4d1c-b45f-3030c31f601f&shareKind=market

LATEST: 33% chance that a top-10 US Bitcoin ETF issuer files SEC ...

2026-07-10T17:44:15Z

LATEST: 33% chance that a top-10 US Bitcoin ETF issuer files SEC disclosure addressing a BIP-110 chain split by August 15

https://beta.predyx.com/market/a-top-10-us-bitcoin-etf-issuer-files-sec-disclosure-addressing-a-bip-110-chain-split-by-august-15-1783619622?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=aa4ad308-b4e5-48ef-a8b7-f47fc318d1f5&shareKind=market

And now 2+ BTC!!

2026-07-10T16:33:26Z

In reply to nevent1q…67xg
_________________________

And now 2+ BTC!!

NEW: Alternative #BIP110 market is now pricing odds the RDTS will ...

2026-07-10T15:47:48Z

NEW: Alternative #BIP110 market is now pricing odds the RDTS will activate and be enforced by most Proof-of-Work chain by Sept. 10 as opposed to Sept. 7.

14% chance

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-win-enforced-by-bitcoins-most-proof-of-work-chain-by-september-10-2026-1783688100?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=5585e1ef-4831-41e3-ba0e-03cc093d6669&shareKind=market

NEW: 🇲🇦🇫🇷 Can Morocco stun the world and beat France? ...

2026-07-09T19:42:56Z

NEW: 🇲🇦🇫🇷 Can Morocco stun the world and beat France?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/world-cup-quarterfinals-france-vs-morocco-1783625908?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=1b7bfdd6-0e3a-4e2c-9763-4d1686090993&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW - Will BIP-110 achieve it's 55% "lock-in" ...

2026-07-06T16:44:57Z

🚨 NEW - Will BIP-110 achieve it's 55% "lock-in" threshold before activation?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-lock-in-before-activation-1783355471?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=a7b7a93e-a261-4ec5-bd89-a54768a26f3c&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW - UFC 329: Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway ...

2026-06-17T20:33:23Z

🚨 NEW - UFC 329: Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway

https://beta.predyx.com/market/ufc-329-conor-mcgregor-vs-max-holloway-1781728164?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=c567249a-6556-4bdd-a285-142a14e3d552&shareKind=market

🧵 PREDYX's BIP-110 prediction markets. Bitcoin is less ...

2026-06-15T16:08:22Z

🧵 PREDYX's BIP-110 prediction markets.

Bitcoin is less than 10,000 blocks away from its most contentious fork fight in years.

BIP-110 supporters want to keep Bitcoin focused on "being money" while critics say the proposal is technically deficient and poses too many risks to the protocol.

PREDYX's BIP-110 prediction markets function like futures markets, letting traders price the probability of activation. The market price becomes a real-time signal of expectations, while participants can take positions based on how they think miners, developers, node operators, and the broader Bitcoin ecosystem will respond.

There are currently four actively traded prediction markets pricing outcomes related to BIP-110 on PREDYX 👇

🚨 NEW - Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? ...

2026-06-15T11:48:11Z

🚨 NEW - Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

49% chance.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-15-1781523847?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=054dc41f-2179-4658-8c76-082fc28160b5&shareKind=market

Hi Marcus, thanks for the feedback and for being a PREDYX user. ...

2026-06-13T11:51:21Z

In reply to nevent1q…45kd
_________________________

Hi Marcus, thanks for the feedback and for being a PREDYX user.

First, we'd like to apologize if we've missed any of your previous questions. Have you submitted a support ticket in the past that didn't receive a response? If so, please let us know.

Regarding market creator liquidity: PREDYX currently uses LMSR, which requires a minimum liquidity subsidy from the market creator. In return, creators can earn up to 15% of all sats wagered on their market, depending on market activity and the fee rate they choose themselves.

Creators may incur losses if a market doesn't generate enough trading activity on both sides and therefore doesn't accumulate enough fees to offset the initial subsidy. For this reason, we generally recommend creating markets that allow for meaningful price movement and participation from both sides, which increases the likelihood of recovering the initial liquidity through fees.

We're also currently building out our documentation to better explain topics like this. Most of the documentation is already available at https://docs.predyx.com, and we're continuously expanding it.

Please feel free to reach out with any additional questions or feedback on support@predyx.com. We genuinely appreciate it and are always looking to improve.

Do you have Cash App or any other Bitcoin wallet w/ ...

2026-06-12T15:08:13Z

Do you have Cash App or any other Bitcoin wallet w/ Lightning⚡️?

If so, you can sign up and place your first bet on PREDYX.COM in less than 60 seconds!

Just create a username/password, select a market, and buy Yes ✅ or No 🚫 on the outcome.

It's that easy!

🍊 NEW - Which player will deposit the most scrap on The ...

2026-06-11T17:20:08Z

🍊 NEW - Which player will deposit the most scrap on The ORANGEMART (nprofile…wlck) RUST server this wipe cycle?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/which-player-will-deposit-the-most-scrap-on-the-orange-rust-server-this-wipe-1781155598?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=0d6deb43-04e5-4536-9511-0adb70877ba7&shareKind=market

NEW - eCash Bitcoin hard fork listed on major CEX by 2027? ...

2026-06-10T20:11:21Z

NEW - eCash Bitcoin hard fork listed on major CEX by 2027?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/ecash-bitcoin-hard-fork-listed-on-a-major-cex-by-2027-1781121822?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=b8a524b0-ebc3-4b05-94cd-387bf8b8c908&shareKind=market

NEW - Which Bitcoin treasury company will be the next to sell? ...

2026-06-10T19:14:57Z

NEW - Which Bitcoin treasury company will be the next to sell?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/next-treasury-company-to-sell-bitcoin-1781118443?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=db9bdec3-294d-4f65-b623-9a35fb0da885&shareKind=market

NEW - @nprofile…n4sc by @nprofile…6un7 sold in Costco by? ...

2026-06-10T17:56:12Z

NEW - PeonyLaneWine (nprofile…n4sc) by BenJustman (nprofile…6un7) sold in Costco by?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/peony-lane-wine-sold-in-costco-by-1781113893?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=95b4bde8-3c8c-4a3c-9c46-e953d433f1b4&shareKind=market

One more day to go... Pick your winners, trade your convictions, ...

2026-06-10T17:07:25Z

One more day to go...

Pick your winners, trade your convictions, and follow the action all tournament long to find out who will win the #FIFAWorldCup 🏆 on PREDYX.

PREDYX's prediction markets are for ANYONE. All you need is ...

2026-06-09T18:45:11Z

PREDYX's prediction markets are for ANYONE.

All you need is Bitcoin to buy the future you believe in or sell the one you don't at http://PREDYX.COM

Hunter Biden's odds of running for president in 2028 continue ...

2026-06-09T16:29:41Z

Hunter Biden's odds of running for president in 2028 continue to rise, up another 19%.

35% chance.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/hunter-biden-runs-for-president-in-2028-1780578974?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=2dcb995e-3f3e-4dcc-a8d2-6679f3637d54&shareKind=market

JUST IN: Kimi Antonelli now has a 90% chance of becoming World ...

2026-06-08T15:36:38Z

JUST IN: Kimi Antonelli now has a 90% chance of becoming World Champion in everyone's least favorite F1 season.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/formula-one-world-champion-2026-1767546718?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=cd15c560-91c6-4c62-840b-95eab41c732f&shareKind=market

@nprofile…pxl4 User added liquidity is still a month or two ...

2026-06-08T15:21:02Z

In reply to nevent1q…2l2u
_________________________

toxicbitcoiner (nprofile…pxl4) User added liquidity is still a month or two away but we added CDA/CLOB to all World Cup markets so you can place limit orders and create implicit liquidity.

We hear you. Will try to get an update on user added liquidity ...

2026-06-07T16:13:45Z

In reply to nevent1q…sw89
_________________________

We hear you. Will try to get an update on user added liquidity and we will boost the liquidity for these markets if interest/activity picks up for World Cup markets.

🚨 ALL 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage markets are now LIVE on ...

2026-06-07T15:24:54Z

🚨 ALL 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage markets are now LIVE on PREDYX.

Who will advance from each group? Who will disappoint? Which underdog will shock the world?

Pick your winners, trade your convictions, and follow the action all tournament long.

https://predyx.com/category/soccer?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e

🐸 NEW — Nakamoto Holdings ($NAKA) delisted from the Nasdaq ...

2026-06-05T19:34:04Z

🐸 NEW — Nakamoto Holdings ($NAKA) delisted from the Nasdaq in 2026.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/nakamoto-holdings-naka-delisted-from-the-nasdaq-in-2026-1780685371?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=dbb6037e-9a9d-4bf8-8155-f48c68842a68&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW - Will Michael Saylor Crash Out In 2026? ...

2026-06-05T16:10:32Z

🚨 NEW - Will Michael Saylor Crash Out In 2026?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-michael-saylor-crash-out-in-2026-1780675338?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=484c3236-7fe1-4cce-95a7-acdb63079e14&shareKind=market

65% chance Binance is insolvent by July. ...

2026-06-04T14:11:06Z

65% chance Binance is insolvent by July.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/binance-insolvent-by-july-1780581680?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=7a3d7347-8956-4226-9d7b-48d60c1a99ac&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW: Will David Bailey post "Buckle up" on by 4th of ...

2026-06-03T01:13:30Z

🚨 NEW: Will David Bailey post "Buckle up" on by 4th of July?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/david-bailey-posts-buckle-up-by-4th-of-july-1780442512?shareOg=5780de5f-0d6d-4ba7-a9e8-27738d29935d&shareKind=market

JUST IN: Congressman Thomas Massie has a better chance of winning ...

2026-05-22T13:25:01Z

JUST IN: Congressman Thomas Massie has a better chance of winning the 2028 Presidential election than #BIP110 RDTS has to successfully activate this September.

On PREDYX if you bet on the underdog, and you're right, you can turn $100 into $1550.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-activate-and-be-enforced-on-bitcoin-by-sept-1-2026-1770282509?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=5d589c39-cca7-458a-9cb7-0514903f7ff6&shareKind=market https://beta.predyx.com/market/thomas-massie-wins-2028-presidential-election-1779388919?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=2fa51e96-e8bc-4c94-8fba-b69312b7c6d0&shareKind=market

🚨 REPORT: Bitcoin mining firm MARA sued over data center noise ...

2026-05-21T18:20:59Z

🚨 REPORT: Bitcoin mining firm MARA sued over data center noise and dead chickens.

Will Luigi Mangione beat his assassination charges and walk free ...

2026-05-21T17:23:30Z

Will Luigi Mangione beat his assassination charges and walk free by the end of next year?

Does that sound crazy to you? As of now his odds sit at 21%

https://beta.predyx.com/market/luigi-mangione-out-of-custody-before-2028-1779128639?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=5525c567-71ec-4d71-b780-14e541f3d938&shareKind=market

Minnesota has become the first state to ban prediction markets. ...

2026-05-21T13:26:55Z

Minnesota has become the first state to ban prediction markets. Governor Tim Walz signed a bill which makes it a felony to own, operate, or advertise prediction markets in the state.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/tim-walz-faces-criminal-charges-by-1767020323?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=5668fcaf-a900-40e4-9628-27bae4c033f1&shareKind=market

🚨 TRENDING: 26% chance Swan wins lawsuit vs Tether over stolen ...

2026-05-18T18:45:28Z

🚨 TRENDING: 26% chance Swan wins lawsuit vs Tether over stolen mining business.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/swan-bitcoin-wins-lawsuit-vs-tether-1778165561?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=2e175326-d3c2-4730-a0f5-2e7954a250be&shareKind=market

KEIR STARMER: "Mr. Speaker, I am a gooner!" 80% chance ...

2026-05-13T21:20:07Z

KEIR STARMER: "Mr. Speaker, I am a gooner!"

80% chance the British PM is out before year end.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/starmer-out-in-2026-1770367041?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=784ce44d-9879-455c-bbce-2e8bc13677fd&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Spencer Pratt wins 2026 Los Angeles Mayor ...

2026-05-11T15:35:22Z

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Spencer Pratt wins 2026 Los Angeles Mayor election.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/spencer-pratt-wins-la-mayor-2026-1778513007?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=5b4344b4-ba86-4ea4-81ae-2d72443913da&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: 2028 Republican presidential nominee? ...

2026-05-11T15:08:28Z

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: 2028 Republican presidential nominee?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/2028-republican-presidential-nominee-1778511455?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=7037b84d-cb77-46d5-be35-cafcffbeee68&shareKind=market

Do you have a #Bitcoin Lightning⚡️ wallet like ...

2026-05-08T20:37:04Z

Do you have a #Bitcoin Lightning⚡️ wallet like ZEUS (nprofile…zjpe) or Manna (nprofile…9unz) ? That's all you need to start trading prediction markets, or creating your own, on PREDYX.

Sign up and begin trading in seconds. No photo I.D. required. - https://predyx.com

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Will @nprofile…kx96 fix the UX bug for ...

2026-05-08T17:30:26Z

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Will Cake Wallet (nprofile…kx96) fix the UX bug for Android, that resets the amount anytime a user changes the coin to be swapped, by August?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/cake-wallet-v612-bug-fixed-by-2026-09-01-1778258099?shareOg=8334ea4b-d2d5-4057-bac9-ede91fb87e61&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW: Senate Banking Committee preparing to vote on CLARITY ...

2026-05-08T15:59:34Z

🚨 NEW: Senate Banking Committee preparing to vote on CLARITY Act as soon as May 14.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/clarity-act-signed-into-us-law-by-may-31-2026-1778254845?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=b47b4714-5331-49ee-b8a3-512631c7536b&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Coinbase suffers a security exploit ...

2026-05-08T14:20:05Z

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Coinbase suffers a security exploit resulting in loss of user funds in 2026.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-coinbase-suffer-a-security-exploit-resulting-in-loss-of-user-funds-in-2026-1778249845?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=d73d86be-a48a-411b-9d02-7cc557375d16&shareKind=market

🚨 LATEST: Odds government reveals evidence confirming aliens ...

2026-05-08T14:09:07Z

🚨 LATEST: Odds government reveals evidence confirming aliens exist in 2026 fall to 22% despite UFO files release.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/alien-evidence-disclosure-by-end-of-2026-1768798366?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=4b8128df-15c4-42bc-8886-bea48a4976ce&shareKind=market

🚨TRENDING: Computer scientists have developed a solution to ...

2026-05-07T20:17:32Z

🚨TRENDING: Computer scientists have developed a solution to quantum risk for #Bitcoin

https://beta.predyx.com/market/bip-360-quantum-resistant-upgrade-activated-on-bitcoin-by-1775250762?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=169a0dd0-aabb-4e42-ad7a-910c28dac06e&shareKind=market

NEW: Scientists are working to create hantavirus vaccine. ...

2026-05-07T20:16:06Z

NEW: Scientists are working to create hantavirus vaccine.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/hantavirus-vaccine-in-2026-1778183952?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=baf33fac-8539-483d-b880-619f2f793ad6&shareKind=market

Trying to get you an answer

2026-05-07T20:15:34Z

In reply to nevent1q…xjch
_________________________

Trying to get you an answer

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Michael Saylor, Strategy sells #Bitcoin ...

2026-05-07T18:21:29Z

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Michael Saylor, Strategy sells #Bitcoin in 2026.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/strategy-sells-bitcoin-in-2026-1778177769?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=16c83d18-6387-4e68-ba9b-261eeafc71f7&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: West Main Self Storage Bitcoin Treasury ...

2026-05-07T17:25:58Z

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: West Main Self Storage Bitcoin Treasury reaches 5 BTC by 2027.

As of May 6, 2026 West Main Self Storage hodls 4.568 BTC.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/west-main-self-storage-bitcoin-treasury-reaches-5-btc-by-2027-1778173714?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=b2544790-841c-47b8-b734-2f8ab055737f&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Swan Bitcoin wins its lawsuit vs Tether ...

2026-05-07T15:11:49Z

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Swan Bitcoin wins its lawsuit vs Tether related to Swan’s mining business dispute.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/swan-bitcoin-wins-lawsuit-vs-tether-1778165561?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e&shareOg=60571ed8-812e-460b-af0b-62eda774ecb4&shareKind=market

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Kash Patel wears "Free Samourai" ...

2026-04-23T14:55:58Z

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Kash Patel wears "Free Samourai" shirt at thebitcoinconf (nprofile…7emy) in Las Vegas.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/kash-patel-wears-free-samouari-shirt-at-bitcoin-conference-1776955739?ref=98d6db0f64aafbfd

If you're going to Las Vegas for @nprofile…7emy , don't ...

2026-04-22T13:53:42Z

If you're going to Las Vegas for thebitcoinconf (nprofile…7emy) , don't miss the prediction markets panel featuring PREDYX CEO Derek Orr on Wednesday, April 29th.

Will #BIP110 activate and be enforced on #Bitcoin? Chance: 8.66% ...

2026-04-21T17:13:45Z

Will #BIP110 activate and be enforced on #Bitcoin?

Chance: 8.66%

🔗 https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-activate-and-be-enforced-on-bitcoin-by-sept-1-2026-1770282509

JUST IN: Odds Trump pardons Samourai devs by the end of the year ...

2026-04-21T15:43:10Z

JUST IN: Odds Trump pardons Samourai devs by the end of the year remain low.

27% chance.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/trump-pardons-samourai-wallet-dev-before-dec-31-2026-1765867668?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Will @nprofile…8q6f bring Aubrey ...

2026-04-21T15:02:47Z

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Will TatumTurnUp (nprofile…8q6f) bring Aubrey Strobel as his date to the PUBKEY (nprofile…rsqx) 'Hotstyle Takeover' in Las Vegas?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-tatum-turnup-bring-aubrey-strobel-as-his-date-to-the-pubkey-hotstyle-takeover-iii-in-las-vegas-1776730234?ref=98d6db0f64aafbfd

JUST IN: Ferrari sets price of first electric car at over ...

2026-04-21T15:00:57Z

JUST IN: Ferrari sets price of first electric car at over $640,000 - Bloomberg

Oil prices are falling with Iran re-opening the Strait of Hormuz ...

2026-04-17T14:55:38Z

Oil prices are falling with Iran re-opening the Strait of Hormuz but chances for sub-$50 oil this year remain low.

32% chance.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/2026-oil-futures-sub-50-barrel-likely-1765798152?ref=9a937ef557a7c65e

🇪🇸 Spain is the favorite on PREDYX to win the World Cup. ...

2026-04-15T17:05:04Z

🇪🇸 Spain is the favorite on PREDYX to win the World Cup.

It's Lamine Yamal's world, we're just living in it.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/fifa-world-cup-winner-2026-1766404951

JUST IN: @nprofile…9k65 most likely to be identified as Satoshi ...

2026-04-15T17:04:16Z

JUST IN: adam3us (nprofile…9k65) most likely to be identified as Satoshi Nakamoto in upcoming 'Finding Satoshi' documentary.

18% chance.

https://beta.predyx.com/market/satoshi-identified-by-finding-satoshi-documentary-1776167412

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Will Bitcoin "crash" during ...

2026-04-14T20:03:28Z

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Will Bitcoin "crash" during thebitcoinconf (nprofile…7emy) ?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bitcoin-crash-during-the-bitcoin-conference-1776195911

JUST IN: UCLA is favored to win the College World Series. ...

2026-04-14T18:35:06Z

JUST IN: UCLA is favored to win the College World Series.

⚡ https://beta.predyx.com/market/2026-college-world-series-champion-1776111720

JUST IN: Odds of #BIP110 soft fork activation and enforcement now ...

2026-04-14T12:35:09Z

JUST IN: Odds of #BIP110 soft fork activation and enforcement now just 6.64%

https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-activate-and-be-enforced-on-bitcoin-by-sept-1-2026-1770282509

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Who will the 'Finding Satoshi' ...

2026-04-14T12:08:17Z

🚨 NEW PREDYX MARKET: Who will the 'Finding Satoshi' documentary, about #Bitcoin's pseudonymous creator, identify as Satoshi Nakamoto?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/satoshi-identified-by-finding-satoshi-documentary-1776167412

JUST IN: 🇧🇷 Flávio Bolsonaro's odds of winning the ...

2026-04-13T18:59:45Z

JUST IN: 🇧🇷 Flávio Bolsonaro's odds of winning the Brazil's Presidential election jump 10%.

66%

https://beta.predyx.com/market/who-will-win-the-brazil-presidential-election-1766401659

JUST IN: Odds #Bitcoin dips below $45,000 in 2026 down 14% since ...

2026-04-13T18:44:01Z

JUST IN: Odds #Bitcoin dips below $45,000 in 2026 down 14% since last week.

18%

https://beta.predyx.com/market/bitcoin-below-45k-in-2026-1770333683

PREDYX makes prediction markets simple and fun. All you need is a ...

2026-04-10T13:32:28Z

PREDYX makes prediction markets simple and fun.

All you need is a Bitcoin wallet with Lightning⚡️

🏆 Top Winners PREDYX users are cashing in on their ...

2026-04-09T18:46:05Z

🏆 Top Winners

PREDYX users are cashing in on their predictions! The top three winners have generated over ₿25 million in profits!

Get started today: https://beta.predyx.com

Anyone can trade on PREDYX. You don’t need a VPN or ...

2026-04-09T18:11:29Z

Anyone can trade on PREDYX. You don’t need a VPN or driver's license. All you need is a Bitcoin Lightning wallet like ZEUS (nprofile…zjpe)

⚡️ Get started in minutes: https://beta.predyx.com

Market 🔗 ...

2026-03-25T05:27:24Z

In reply to nevent1q…sytq
_________________________

Market 🔗

https://beta.predyx.com/market/matt-odell-wins-maxi-madness-on-nostr-1773696702

Nostr event nevent1qqsqneeage49cvqkedkrs5trcamjln6arxmc98rtn65mu3kanuecajgzyzjtpq9aft6n36swqvrle6nezvm2rj4aa5mefzv0mck3wn2jtw50vdux49h

2026-03-25T05:26:13Z

In reply to nevent1q…x77h
_________________________

https://beta.predyx.com/market/matt-odell-wins-maxi-madness-on-nostr-1773696702

Predict on PREDYX 👇 ...

2026-03-24T16:34:40Z

In reply to nevent1q…zckk
_________________________

Predict on PREDYX 👇
https://beta.predyx.com/market/matt-odell-wins-maxi-madness-on-nostr-1773696702/#

Maxi Madness is basically: 🏀 March Madness ₿ Bitcoin culture ...

2026-03-17T16:25:47Z

In reply to nevent1q…hfy3
_________________________

Maxi Madness is basically:

🏀 March Madness
₿ Bitcoin culture
⚡ Lightning markets

Prediction markets are the ultimate reputation scoreboard.

Maxis:

Who actually wins this bracket?

🟠 Jack Dorsey on Nostr Built Twitter. Now pushing Nostr. Odds: ...

2026-03-17T16:24:18Z

In reply to nevent1q…gylu
_________________________

🟠 Jack Dorsey on Nostr

Built Twitter.
Now pushing Nostr.

Odds: ~49%

Does the Nostr movement send him to the top?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/jack-dorsey-wins-maxi-madness-on-nostr-1773696937

🟣 Matt Odell on Nostr OG Bitcoiner. Maxi gatekeeper. Nostr ...

2026-03-17T16:23:25Z

In reply to nevent1q…gylu
_________________________

🟣 Matt Odell on Nostr

OG Bitcoiner.
Maxi gatekeeper.
Nostr advocate.

Market odds: ~50%

Does the Nostr crowd carry him to victory?

https://beta.predyx.com/market/matt-odell-wins-maxi-madness-on-nostr-1773696702

₿ Michael Saylor The man who turned corporate treasury strategy ...

2026-03-17T16:21:48Z

In reply to nevent1q…jh77
_________________________

₿ Michael Saylor

The man who turned corporate treasury strategy into Bitcoin evangelism.

Market odds: ~50%

Translation:
The maxis are divided.

Does Saylor reach the Final Four?

Trade it:
https://beta.predyx.com/market/michael-saylor-reaches-the-maxi-madness-final-four-on-x-1773694431

🔥 HOT REGION on X Ross Ulbricht Opti Gloria Zhao Lyn Alden ...

2026-03-17T16:20:58Z

In reply to nevent1q…gylu
_________________________

🔥 HOT REGION on X

Ross Ulbricht
Opti
Gloria Zhao
Lyn Alden

Right now the market says:

Everyone ~20%

Meaning:
Nobody knows who the maxis will rally behind.

Trade it 👇
https://beta.predyx.com/market/who-will-advance-to-the-final-four-of-the-2026-maxi-madness-tournament-on-x-from-the-hot-region-1773696234

🚨 MAXI MADNESS MARKETS ARE LIVE 🚨 The Bitcoin culture wars ...

2026-03-17T16:18:54Z

🚨 MAXI MADNESS MARKETS ARE LIVE 🚨

The Bitcoin culture wars are now tradable in sats ⚡

Who actually dominates the Bitcoin narrative on X and Nostr?

Maxis… put your sats where your mouth is 👇

BIP-110 odds: 7.8% Bitcoin Core devs: 😌 Bitcoin Knots users: ...

2026-03-16T15:50:14Z

BIP-110 odds: 7.8%

Bitcoin Core devs: 😌
Bitcoin Knots users: 😤

Trade the chaos on PREDYX 👇
https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-activate-and-be-enforced-on-bitcoin-by-sept-1-2026-1770282509

🙏 Thanks - just finished setting up the Nostr zap wallet.

2026-03-12T22:37:43Z

In reply to nevent1q…d3vc
_________________________

🙏 Thanks - just finished setting up the Nostr zap wallet.

At this point of time - no you can't add more liquidity. ...

2026-03-12T22:33:27Z

In reply to nevent1q…mul3
_________________________

At this point of time - no you can't add more liquidity.
After we launch CDA markets, you can dynamically increase/decrease liquidity by becoming a market-maker.

Not yet - but soon after CDA and UMA Oracle release.

2026-03-12T01:04:57Z

In reply to nevent1q…fmum
_________________________

Not yet - but soon after CDA and UMA Oracle release.

> 1. Can anyone make their own market? Yes, anyone can create ...

2026-03-12T01:03:21Z

In reply to nevent1q…mj5r
_________________________

> 1. Can anyone make their own market?
Yes, anyone can create a market.

> 2. It then has to be approved by Predyx?
No, it doesn't need to be approved by us. However we have an exception for death markets in our TOS. If any user creates a death, we will disable it.

> 3. Does the user provide the liquidity?

Yes at this point of time, creator provides the initial liquidity. We're in the process of launching hybrid CDA/CLOB Markets within a month or two, where the majority of the liquidity will be provided by the market-makers.

> 4. If yes, what optionality does the user have for managing the liquidity? Are there set parameters?

At this point of time, PREDYX uses LMSR AMM (Automated Market Maker) for markets. Thus the creator provides the WCL (Worst Case Loss) for the markets fully configurable with Liquidity. The creator gets to keep 95% of the fees generated from the markets.

In short , here's how the liquidity and WCL works:

WCL = b * ln(N)

b = liquidity parameter
N = number of outcomes
ln = natural logarithm

For example a market with 1M sats liquidity (b), the creator provides 693147.18 sats as WCL for a YES/NO market.

b = 1_000_000
outcomes = 2

wcl = b * Math.log(outcomes)
wcl = 693147.18 sats

With LMSR AMM the liquidity is static, this will change drastically when we launch hybrid CDA (less than two months) where majority of the liquidity will be provided by market-makers.

Thus if the creator is good at creating high demand markets, this can become his income stream where he/she gets to keep 95% now the market fees.

> 5. Who settles outcomes?

At this point, we (PREDYX team) resolve the markets. However, we're also building UMA style oracle for markets resolutions. Once the UMA Oracle is out (in less than 2 months) - then the markets will be resolved by group of oracles.

PREDYX is looking for funding Hey Bitcoiners, We’ve been ...

2026-03-11T07:42:52Z

PREDYX is looking for funding

Hey Bitcoiners,

We’ve been building Predyx, a Lightning-native prediction market where markets are priced and settled directly in sats.

The idea is simple: prediction markets should work like the rest of Bitcoin - open, global, and programmable - with Lightning handling the payments layer.

A few design choices behind Predyx:
• Markets priced in sats (1 share = 1 sat payout if correct)
• Lightning pay-per-trade model (no deposits)
• LMSR market maker for automated pricing
• CDA (Continuous Double Auction) market engine in development
• UMA-style oracle system for market resolution in development
• Separate wallets per market to reduce custody risk
• Anyone can create markets and provide liquidity

The goal is to make micro prediction markets possible - things that only work when transactions are instant and extremely small.

Examples of markets currently running:
• Bitcoin price markets
• sports markets
• political outcomes
• tech and macro events

The beta is live and running, but the next stage requires capital and strategic help to scale:
• deeper liquidity across markets
• infrastructure scaling
• Lightning liquidity and integrations
• growth and distribution
• legal and regulatory work for U.S. compliance (CFTC)

If you’re a builder, Lightning node operator, or investor interested in Bitcoin-native financial infrastructure, I’d be interested in talking.

Happy to answer any technical questions here.

If you want to see what we’ve built so far, the beta is live: https://beta.predyx.com

PREDYX market says only 7% chance that BIP-110 activates on ...

2026-03-04T15:18:33Z

PREDYX market says only 7% chance that BIP-110 activates on Bitcoin.

Are traders finally being realistic…
or massively underestimating the push for change? 👀
https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-activate-and-be-enforced-on-bitcoin-by-sept-1-2026-1770282509

#BIP110 market just jumped 10% in the last hour 👀📈 Price ...

2026-02-27T18:19:36Z

#BIP110 market just jumped 10% in the last hour 👀📈
Price action says something’s brewing — are you watching this breakout?👇
https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-activate-and-be-enforced-on-bitcoin-by-sept-1-2026-1770282509

2.91%. ↓84%. The #BIP110 market just keeps swinging. 📉⚡ ...

2026-02-25T15:28:11Z

2.91%. ↓84%.

The #BIP110 market just keeps swinging. 📉⚡

Over **1M sats liquidity**.
24M+ volume.
Volatility alive.

Governance isn’t debated here — it’s priced.

Step in. Take a side.
Ride the volatility 👇
https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-activate-and-be-enforced-on-bitcoin-by-sept-1-2026-1770282509

#Bitcoin #PredictionMarkets #PREDYX

Creators

2026-02-18T10:49:50Z

In reply to nevent1q…us2w
_________________________

Creators

Yes, it's created by Predyx like many other markets. We are ...

2026-02-18T09:55:09Z

In reply to nevent1q…ck2h
_________________________

Yes, it's created by Predyx like many other markets. We are prediction market and our job is to create engaging markets. BIP-110 is a trending topic in the Bitcoin space atm and we recieved multiple requests from both sides to create a market for it, so we obliged.

That said, the market is open for both sides and for everyone. The question there seeks truth before it goes into headlines. I hope you take us as prediction market, not the advocate for any (either).

Yes

2026-02-18T09:45:48Z

In reply to nevent1q…r9fr
_________________________

Yes

Anyone can create a market on Predyx. If you think there can be ...

2026-02-17T14:29:08Z

In reply to nevent1q…whgd
_________________________

Anyone can create a market on Predyx. If you think there can be better version or something new, please go ahead. PREDYX welcomes all equally.

As a Bitcoin-Powered Prediction Market, we believe in remaining non bs and open to all.

🐋 #BIP110 WHALE ALERT Anonymous trader holds 5M+ YES shares on ...

2026-02-15T14:39:25Z

In reply to nevent1q…gfw8
_________________________

🐋 #BIP110 WHALE ALERT
Anonymous trader holds 5M+ YES shares on the PREDYX BIP110 market.

That’s conviction at scale or market is misreading this… or someone’s early.

🔗 https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-activate-and-be-enforced-on-bitcoin-by-sept-1-2026-1770282509

Follow the signal or fade it? 👀

Yes, no kyc, no deposits. PREDYX is Bitcoin Lightning Network ...

2026-02-15T14:30:30Z

In reply to nevent1q…0w5v
_________________________

Yes, no kyc, no deposits. PREDYX is Bitcoin Lightning Network Native Prediction Market

🐋 #BIP110 WHALE ALERT Anonymous trader holds 5M+ YES shares on ...

2026-02-15T14:20:47Z

🐋 #BIP110 WHALE ALERT
Anonymous trader holds 5M+ YES shares on the PREDYX BIP110 market.

That’s conviction at scale or market is misreading this… or someone’s early.

🔗 https://beta.predyx.com/market/will-bip-110-activate-and-be-enforced-on-bitcoin-by-sept-1-2026-1770282509

Follow the signal or fade it? 👀

Worth a watch: an interesting take on BIP-110’s future. ...

2026-02-12T18:37:05Z

Worth a watch: an interesting take on BIP-110’s future.

Featuring Predyx Market: Will BIP-110 activate and be enforced on Bitcoin by Sept 1, 2026?

22:30-25:30 👀
https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1ypKdqZZPBLGW

Worth a watch: an interesting take on BIP-110’s future. ...

2026-02-12T18:36:06Z

Worth a watch: an interesting take on BIP-110’s future.

Featuring Predyx Market: Will BIP-110 activate and be enforced on Bitcoin by Sept 1, 2026?

22:30-25:30 👀

https://x.com/predyx_markets/status/2022001738786779290?s=20

71% chance there will be another US Government shutdown, per ...

2026-02-12T13:10:11Z

71% chance there will be another US Government shutdown, per PREDYX 👇 https://beta.predyx.com/market/another-us-government-shutdown-before-february-14-1770359008

Bitcoin doesn’t care about your feelings. Neither do PREDYX. ...

2026-02-11T16:27:20Z

Bitcoin doesn’t care about your feelings.
Neither do PREDYX.

Price is truth.

Create your own Bitcoin-powered prediction market in minutes on PREDYX 👇
https://beta.predyx.com/category/bitcoin