2023-02-13T04:33:02Z https://njump.me tech_pleb https://njump.me/npub1adlvvpr47yakt69rckat3x695f8mc0sy9hx9hueqc823er0p2yjs00fhm8 https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_989469f2253f6c13ecbcd5aa98d5ffffa2c8d37c53684778ce800be97a6136b0.jpg https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_989469f2253f6c13ecbcd5aa98d5ffffa2c8d37c53684778ce800be97a6136b0.jpg https://njump.me/nevent1qqsvk89nde80affse82ah6055cns82ul598fhhhss82ffz3rc77ekfgzyr4ha3sywhcnke0g50zm4wymgk3yl0p7qskucklnyrqa28ydu9gj2hngesc In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqs9jgvcm5enyyjxvx6k2gxzchdnnzwy0c4edphrk5rkuj73sh6hefsygpl5q'>nevent1q…pl5q</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Crazy move. I wonder how far back is the last gap like that on oil. I&#39;m thinking decades perhaps. 2023-04-03T11:15:47Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsyaaqjhemw8hhz7guzwrlzfkzultwjx5dy78r3ak3myhym9r8d5vgzyr4ha3sywhcnke0g50zm4wymgk3yl0p7qskucklnyrqa28ydu9gj2s4w6yf I&#39;ve seen a lot of bad takes all over twitter concerning the recent emergency lending by the fed to banks and this being QE etc. Loan&#39;s ain&#39;t QE. No, in fact this is a warning sign of the greatest order. While I think bitcoin will come out on top eventually, the probability of an upcoming credit crunch &amp; correlation -&gt; 1 event like Mar 2020 is higher than at any point since then. While the eventual result will probably be QE &amp; bitcoin mooning, don&#39;t think that it can&#39;t first get slaughtered in price by another credit crunch &amp; wave of deflation. In fact, QE won&#39;t happen until such an event forces the fed&#39;s hand. <br/><br/>See chart below. Red is total Fed bal. sheet (BS) &amp; blue is the QE part (treasury &amp; agency securities obtained by printing money &amp; buying outright). The difference (green) is mostly short-term loans. During QE, blue &amp; red track, green is flat. Red-blue divergence &amp; green spiking happens during emergency lending episodes. When this is seen, the probability of an upcoming credit crunch is much elevated. <br/> <br/><br/><br/><br/><br/> <img src="https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_f25393f3bae2c3d021b114bbf2f61d9404a8ea96951598ee44e1e22073cd1c84.png"> 2023-03-25T02:54:49Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsz4lfvahtg03zz4fw7wgcpwd8kd7gkcn6pwav6ztwcyg4njwjy7wqzyr4ha3sywhcnke0g50zm4wymgk3yl0p7qskucklnyrqa28ydu9gj2mle2hm Anybody doing Macro analysis / commentary on Nostr yet? Let&#39;s get Macro discussions happening here. 2023-03-25T02:46:01Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs8xvqt3g5j6pth6mdx7v80yq9mg6hrny9mvv5vkue72s5a3nzzfdszyr4ha3sywhcnke0g50zm4wymgk3yl0p7qskucklnyrqa28ydu9gj2u73674 In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsq9hn9r5lhq3fsg6gsa3jxaezvdv9ppu8gytykjnap5cvteaqezncfwqwhg'>nevent1q…qwhg</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>2/ Here is the same base series of the last chart. Considering that YoY Δ% is the first derivative of the base metric (being asset price or $ balance) with respect to time. Correlation is very high since March 2020, since the fiat firehose was unleashed.<br/><br/> <img src="https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_db0ca83259a687926e0509244f9e3b1a4f4ef94b6d7c637aab2149fecf283c49.png"> 2023-02-15T07:18:17Z