Nostr notes by BaseballStats

FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: October 31, 2026 The end of the World ...

2026-10-31T14:01:32Z

FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: October 31, 2026

The end of the World Series is the best time of year for baseball writing, when some of the greatest scribes working tell the story of the championship team’s triumph with a literary flourish worthy of the feat they are covering. These are the stories that made me want to become a baseball writer. They are full of rich characters and anecdotes, revealing details that shape our understanding of…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-weekly-mailbag-october-31-2026/

#worldseries

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Effectively Wild Episode 2551: ABS Reviews, Reviewed This is a ...

2026-10-31T11:20:06Z

Effectively Wild Episode 2551: ABS Reviews, Reviewed

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, please visit our Patreon.
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a few more World Series subjects (TV ratings, Kyle Harrison’s non-use, the Brewers’ bullpen performance, an earlier EW discussion of ideal clinching plays, and more), and then (26:00) recap the first season of ABS: how it went, what surprised them, possible improvements, etc. After that (46:26) they talk about baseball scenes in Avengers: Doomsday (with an MCU digression) and You Can See Everything (sans spoilers), and wrap up (1:15:45) by anticipating how active the MLB transaction market will be leading up to the lockout.
Audio intro: Justin Peters, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Sean P., “Effectively Wild Theme”
Link to ratings tweet
Link to ratings article 1
Link to ratings article 2
Link to Ben on the Brewers pen
Link to Jaffe on the Brewers pen
Link to Paine on the Brewers pen
Link to Jaffe on the Brewers run
Link to Stark on the Brewers run
Link to best postseason records
Link to Skubal offers report
Link to drunk Vogelbach
Link to EW Episode 1771
Link to Wicked Witch melting
Link to Ben on challenge changes
Link to Ben on ABS preseason
Link to Ben on ABS mix-ups
Link to AFL experiment results
Link to Doomsday promo video
Link to Doomsday article 1
Link to Doomsday article 2
Link to First Avenger article
Link to Doomsday Stewart article
Link to Professor X appearances
Link to X-Men movies wiki
Link to Doctor Doom wiki
Link to Ebbets Field wiki
Link to Earth-828 wiki
Link to EW superhero draft
Link to “Who’s on First?” clip
Link to “Who’s on First?” wiki
Link to Black House wiki
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Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2551-abs-reviews-reviewed/

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Job Posting: San Francisco Giants – Director, Integrated ...

2026-10-30T19:32:05Z

Job Posting: San Francisco Giants – Director, Integrated Performance

Direct link to application (please see job details below):
Director, Integrated Performance
Director, Integrated Performance
Location: Papago, AZ
Position: Director, Integrated Performance
Reports to: Sr. Director of Player Development
Department: Player Development
Status: Full-Time; Exempt
Position Overview:
The San Francisco Giants are seeking a Director, Integrated Performance to join the Baseball Operations department.
The Director, Integrated Performance provides strategic leadership and oversight of Strength and Conditioning, Nutrition, Biomechanics, Mental Skills, and Sports Science within Player Development. This position is responsible for aligning these disciplines to support individualized player development, optimize athletic performance, enhance readiness and promote long-term player growth. The Director establishes department standards, provides leadership and professional development to performance staff, and collaborates with coaches, medical personnel, and player development leadership to ensure performance strategies are effectively integrated into daily baseball operations.
Position Responsibilities:
Department Leadership and Accountability
Provides leadership and oversight of the five performance disciplines, ensuring consistent standards, clearly defined responsibilities, and accountability across affiliates and complexes.
Oversee staff development, performance evaluation, and professional growth while supporting collaborative and accountable team environment.
Partner with Player Development leadership and front office on staffing recommendations resources allocation, budgets, and departmental planning.
Integrated Player Development
Collaborate with baseball coordinators, coaches, and performance staff to develop and implement individualized player development plans based on assessments, player goals and baseball specific demands.
Lead player evaluations and meetings to ensure alignment of recommendations, establish clear responsibilities and monitor progress towards development goals.
Oversee programs focused on strength, power, speed, movement quality, fueling habits, recovery practices, and mental performance skills based on individual player’s needs and development stages.
Coordinate training programs with baseball schedules and workloads to balance player development, preparation, and competitive readiness.
Ensure consistent implementation of performance programs throughout the regular season, postseason, offseason and transitions.
Assessment and Decision Support
Establish and oversee assessment and monitoring processes to evaluate player development, identify opportunities for improvement, and guide adjustments to individualized plans.
Collaborate with analysts, R&D, and baseball operations personnel to translate sports science and biomechanical data into recommendations for coaches and players.
Evaluate performance technologies, assessment tools, and training methodologies to support effective decision making and continuous program improvement. data quality, tool usefulness, and program effectiveness.
Collaboration and Communication
Serve as the primary liaison between the performance disciplines and Player Development leadership, providing regular updates on player progress, staffing priorities, and operational needs.
Partner with Medical staff regarding player workload, rehabilitation, and return-to-performance planning while maintaining appropriate medical oversight and decision-making authority.
Support continuity of performance programming and player information across affiliates, complexes and transitions to the Major League level.
Knowledge and Skills:
Bachelor’s degree in Kinesiology, Sports Science or related field. Advanced degree or recognized performance credentials preferred.
Demonstrated leadership experience in professional sport or high-performance athletic environment including experience overseeing multidisciplinary teams and implementing athlete development programs. Baseball experience preferred.
Comprehensive understanding of Strength and Conditioning, Nutrition, Biomechanics, Mental Skills, and Sports Science.
Strong organizational and analytical skills and communication skills.
Ability to exercise discretion and maintain confidentiality when handling player information and organizational information.
Willingness to travel to affiliates and complexes, and other organizational locations as needed.
Flexibility to work evenings, weekends, and holidays as required by the baseball schedule.
Spanish language proficiency preferred but not required.
At the Giants, we believe we put our best work forward when our employees bring together ideas that are diverse in thought. We are proud to be an equal opportunity workplace and are committed to equal employment opportunity regardless of race, religious creed, color, national origin, ancestry, medical condition or disability, genetic condition, marital status, domestic partnership status, sex, gender, gender identity, gender expression, age, sexual orientation, military or veteran status and any other protected class under federal, state or local law. Pursuant to the San Francisco Fair Chance Ordinance, we will consider for employment qualified applicants with arrest and conviction records. In addition, we will provide reasonable accommodation for qualified individuals with disabilities. If you have a disability or special needs, we would like to know how we can better accommodate you.
To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.
The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the San Francisco Giants.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/job-posting-san-francisco-giants-director-integrated-performance/

#integratedperformance #franciscogiants #sanfrancisco #playerdevelopment #director #baseball #position #department #exemptposition #job

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 10/30/26 Eric Longenhagen 9:02 ...

2026-10-30T18:54:39Z

Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 10/30/26

Eric Longenhagen 9:02 AM
Happy Friday, party people. We're slated to get something like 2-to-3 inches of rain this weekend in Phoenix and it's pouring at the FanGraphs Desert Vista Compound right already. Looking forward to a weekend of Emo/Shoegaze writing like when I was in PA. For now, we chat.
ajleff 9:04 AM
Jefferson Rojas outlook changed much in the last 3 months?
Eric Longenhagen 9:04 AM
I don't believe so. Still projects as a good everyday infielder, either SS or 3B, who's top 20 at his position. Good get for them. Folks can watch him most days playing in LIDOM for Gigantes. He and Roldy Brito are often in the starting lineup.
Brian Reinhart 9:05 AM
Candy corn?
Eric Longenhagen 9:05 AM
I'll eat it. It's not high on my pref list but I'm always curious enough to try it again. Especially the pumpkins.
Daniel 9:07 AM
Given the Yankees aging core and the likelihood that Kilby isn’t a SS long term, do you see him being a guy they push pretty aggressively provided he continues to hit as he moves up?
Eric Longenhagen 9:07 AM
I think so, it's reasonable to expect him to be promoted at roughly the same pace Lombard was if he keeps hitting. I think them sending him here after he barely played this year was fairly aggressive and he's thrived. Wouldn't chock me if he starts at Hudson Valley.
hankirons 9:09 AM
As a Mets fan, what happened to Jacob Reimer this year? Between he and Clifford it feels like the corner bats we thought were close maybe aren't coming at all. Or is that too harsh?
Eric Longenhagen 9:09 AM
Clifford was always going to be flawed in a way that left you disappointed, assuming you bought into peak expectations 2-ish years ago. His reasonable outcome was always more of a platoon bat. Reimer I was in on and remain on to a degree. He's better than his injury-altered 2026 statline, not just betting that he'll be better when healthy but looking at his underlying data, which is more favorable than his surface output…
Eric Longenhagen 9:11 AM
The problem with Reimer is he's maxed out, tightly wound corner guy. If he's gonna K a quarter of the time and have roughly average power, does that really play in a meaningful way? I think it plays some, but not as a top 20 player at 1B if he ends up there alone.
nuxie 9:13 AM
Position changes- rainel to third is that a real thing- Jesus made where does he play? Seems odd that he only played ss this year- seems like they’re committed to Pratt at short
Eric Longenhagen 9:13 AM
I guess I'd wanna see Rainiel play third base before declaring yes or no. He's a heavier kid but built a lot like Max Muncy, who has been able to do it well enough to stay at 3B and moonlight at 2B for a while. I think a position change is what gets his bat in the lineup soonest because he otherwise still has so much work to do as a catcher.
Eric Longenhagen 9:13 AM
Made I agree they should have (or at least should in LIDOM) see what happens with him at 3B. Pratt is the better defender. Joey Ortiz and David Hamilton should not be blocking a potential 30-homer 3B.
ajleff 9:15 AM
Prediction for where Skubal lands?
Eric Longenhagen 9:15 AM
I'll go off the board a bit and say Braves
Eric Longenhagen 9:17 AM
They have a lot of money coming off the books in the next few years, Acuna and Sale and Profar, Albies, Suarez… it adds up. Kinda wonder if there's a Ketel/Acuna change of scenery trade in here somewhere? One more year of Albies makes that less a fit.
nuxie 9:21 AM
Any names popping up from either instructs or the bridge league?
Eric Longenhagen 9:21 AM
Instructs ended a couple weeks ago. Most of the good players are guys you already know. I thought Angeibel Gomez looked good, the Giants infielders, Grindlinger, Comeau… You should take a peek at my pieces from that window of time I wrote a ton as it was going on.
ajleff 9:22 AM
Prediction for the largest change to MiLB/draft/amateur to come out of the lockout?
Eric Longenhagen 9:22 AM
I think we will get an agreement before that stuff is ironed out. They'll say "here's the deal, let's play baseball." and then will hammer out draft/int'l stuff as an afterthought in the weeks following.
Domingo Ayala 9:23 AM
Does John Peck have starting shortstop upside? He kind of came out of nowhere but he has some nice underlying numbers, including his player comps on Savant.
Eric Longenhagen 9:23 AM
I like him but consider him more of a good utility type rather than a first division regular.
tdmoc 9:24 AM
does Vance Honeycutt make the main list next year? OPS and EVs look pretty, but he's still K-ing ~30% with "empty" (non-competitive) walks
Eric Longenhagen 9:24 AM
Back on there. The defense will allow him to play a role. Crushed for me yesterday, hit a ball 108 to dead CF. I agree the K's are too scary to project him as a consistent 2+ WAR guy but he'll play a role.
richwp01 9:25 AM
" Bonemer entered the AFL season as the one of this group I was worried I’d come away feeling more skeptical about because of how much whiffing he did during the regular season. Instead, I think his power is weaponized by sufficient barrel feel. He is likely to be a left field-only defender in the big leagues, but he could have output similar to Teoscar Hernández." His arm not strong enough for RF? Is he just in center to have easier reads?
Eric Longenhagen 9:25 AM
Not a natural thrower from the OF whatsoever.
thundacat707 9:28 AM
Does Seaver King start next season in the MLB? What are your thoughts on his ceiling?
Eric Longenhagen 9:28 AM
I think Washington will look to maximize years of control there. I was super high on King coming out of college, became pretty skeptical at the end of 2025 because he had zero ability to pull the ball (I'm not a "pull everything!" guy but I do think it's scary when you can't do it at all) and was really shaky on defense. He had an awesome season, and needs a re-eval from scratch this list cycle. Washington's new regime absolutely made their hitters better right away and I'm willing to bet he's a true arrow up guy rather than a product of this year's wacky minor league offensive environment.
Eric Longenhagen 9:28 AM
Wildly close lightning strikes here, like cartoon sound effect lightning.
seddrah 9:30 AM
I swapped my Dax Kilby for Grady Emerson in my long term keeper league. Did I screw up?
Eric Longenhagen 9:30 AM
You should consider it a lateral move I guess, id have to know way more about your league and roster to give you a cogent answer.
Pirates Hurdles 9:32 AM
I'm curious how to best deal with a bad year of production for younger prospect bats – guys like Jansel Luis or Gabriel Rodriguez? How do you weight production on toolsy guys in full season ball?
Eric Longenhagen 9:32 AM
It's tough. You look for reasons to give them the benefit of the doubt. Were they young for the level, were they injured, does the surface production deviate from the underlying data in any way?
abravesfan25 9:35 AM
ATL farmhands Owen Carey and/or Isaiah Drake make any notable impressions during in-person looks in the AFL?
Eric Longenhagen 9:35 AM
Drake can really really run, he has a RB's physicality. Can he hit enough to be anything more than a specialist? He has an interesting data profile (huge launch, roughly average contact) but visually his feel to his is crude. Carey is on time to pull, probably LF only defender (30 arm), like him as an eventual corner platoon bat, though it'll depend on how strong he gets. They're both prospects, but not likely impact guys.
doughboy 9:37 AM
i know this is likely the million dollar question, but is Bryce Rainer swing something that can be fixable in offseason to return to hos rookie season contact rates?
Eric Longenhagen 9:37 AM
I don't think it's something you actively tinker with yet, I think he might shorten up naturally as he deals with failure and is forced to adjust.
metties 9:42 AM
How do you balance (your time, focus, etc.) making sure you nail your evals on top 100 dudes with having 1200+ reports on prospects?
Eric Longenhagen 9:42 AM
It's the toughest thing, honestly. Like yesterday I went to Peoria with Laurila. We went earlier than I would have on my own because Laurila interviews players, and that happens well before the game. Then it's nearly impossible to focused on writing in the press box because people in there wanna socialize (which I get), then Patrick Reilly was useful to see for four innings in perfect weather, then nobody else threw strikes and we had like 24 combined walks. I'd have rather been doing anything but watching three pitchers be required to finish an inning. But once your'e in the bowl with the scouts it's kind of a faux pas to leave early, they don't know you're going back to the box to do more work. Anyway, yes this part of it has been the toughest thing for me to wrangle in ten years of doing this. Marrying the depth I'm capable of and the depth that is a differentiator for us as a site (along with the writing quality imo) with the broad, Taylor Swift type tastes of the reading and listening audience that wants everything done right now and could care less about the 40s and 35+ guys.
rfilla 9:43 AM
For a dollar: Which outfielder in the Cardinals system will have the highest peak season WAR? Walker, Baez, Peete, Frias, Condon?
Eric Longenhagen 9:43 AM
I think Frias.
apeloton 9:45 AM
Chase Harlan is down as a guy you want to see more of this fall – do you have any specifics you want to assess with him or more just a general get eyes on?
Eric Longenhagen 9:45 AM
I just want more looks at him playing defense to feel better about where we project him. The league average wRC+ at 3B this year was 98. At 1B it was 111. Where he plays defense really matters to how he stacks among his peers.
abravesfan25 9:46 AM
Congrats to the Brewers! Do you think they'll realize more out of their side of the Peralta trade (Sproat, Jett Williams) in 2027, or is that shaping up as a lose-lose trade?
Eric Longenhagen 9:46 AM
I still think Sproat will be good. Jett will be a role-player.
triplesandtea 9:46 AM
Any chance we get another visual scouting explanation series? Or perhaps a few ABs/plays from one player where you break down scouting them from the basics (what do you see mechanically) to the more advanced?
Eric Longenhagen 9:46 AM
Yeah I want to do a video podcast series that takes you through the list-making processes.
InsertWittyNameHere 9:47 AM
Any flawed prospect that should consider switching to football to replace Tanner McKee? Or play O-line? Or call plays?
Eric Longenhagen 9:47 AM
How has Elijah Green not started playing football at Georgia yet?
ADoctolero 9:48 AM
What's the next "thing" you see teams like the Dodgers, Brewers and Rays doing from either a development or player acquisition standpoint, that will cause the rest of the league to play copy cat?
Eric Longenhagen 9:48 AM
Brewers tailoring bat design to the player's swing.
ahughes584 9:50 AM
Is Axel Plaz's bat good enough for him to be a regular? Is Rafael Flores' bat good enough that he plays daily for the Pirates?
Eric Longenhagen 9:50 AM
Plaz is Botero Jorge Alfaro. Flores will play a big role, yeah. How many catchers really play every day anymore? It's only the top couple guys. They almost always share time and I think Flores will, too, but thrive as a hitter in that role catching 80 games rather than 120.
abravesfan25 9:50 AM
How has Brooks Auger looked in the AFL? Still a viable path to being a starter?
Eric Longenhagen 9:50 AM
Built like a starter, moves like a starter, commands it like a reliever. Think in that org he's a swingman.
Cromulent 9:52 AM
The question about Reimer and Clifford makes me wonder: aren’t Baty and Vientos still ahead of those guys in the (young and at least somewhat unproven) Mets corner infield queue? Or is the cement dry there?
Eric Longenhagen 9:52 AM
Definitely stacked ahead of Reimer/Clifford. Ronny Mo, too. It's a deep group, they 've given themselves lots of bites at the apple. Some of these guys regress, some progress, and when you have enough of them around you can capture the peak years of the best couple guys and do okay.
rfilla 9:52 AM
How do you evaluate a young, high upside, projectable prospect who misses 1-2 years due to injury? Yairo Padilla, for example. Should we assume his development "paused" or is it more likely that he's been progressing off the field?
Eric Longenhagen 9:52 AM
It's tough, but Ethan Salas is proof of concept that these guys shouldn't simply be dismissed because of lost time.
Domingo Ayala 9:53 AM
Can Chandler Simpson improve his arm? Very unnatural throwing motion
Eric Longenhagen 9:53 AM
Nah, feels like he's just in 20/30 area and you live with it.
Gerry McDonald 9:55 AM
Jake Cook didn't have much hitting experience before the draft. Is he developing as you would expect? How did he look in Arizona?
Eric Longenhagen 9:55 AM
I love this guy. Has run sub-3.9 for me multiple times, which is like Billy Hamilton fast. Except this guy has more size than Hamilton and is relatively green as a hitter. Think he has a chance to be pretty good. At the very least he's going to be super fun to watch develop, or try to.
zapper 9:55 AM
Has Zion Rose passed Burress with his AFL performance?
Eric Longenhagen 9:55 AM
Burress looked good during instructs and I wish they had AFL'd him rather than Guedez. I think I'd still take Burress, just a more explosive athlete in the box.
Brendan Smith 9:58 AM
How do you see the looming lockout affecting the pro hiring cycle and any player development efforts around spring training/opening month of MiLB season?
Eric Longenhagen 9:58 AM
I think some of the more budget-conscious teams will have fewer additions to ops this offseason. Same as COVID and the last lockout.
gettwobrute79 9:58 AM
What’s more likely for Derek Curiel? He’s able to stick in center or develop enough power to be a regular? As a Bucs fan, I’d love both, but both feels like a tall ask.
Eric Longenhagen 9:58 AM
Let's see what his body looks like in February. These guys can get in the weight room in their early 20s and get pretty strong pretty fast.
Hazmat Corntail 9:59 AM
Who are you most interested in seeing how they develop further – if you think they can – now that they’ve reached the majors?: Spencer Jones, Victor Mesa, Cole Carrigg
Eric Longenhagen 9:59 AM
Carrigg is the toolsiest of that group.
Brendan Smith 10:00 AM
Not a question-video podcast series for the lists would be must watch!
Eric Longenhagen 10:00 AM
I've had this idea for a long time but clearing music and video rights could be a nightmare. I obviously shoot a ton of my own video but sometimes broadcast footage is just better for showing what it is I want to show… we'll see.
bubbles 10:02 AM
Where would Miguel Hernandez have gone in the 26 draft of he were eligible? When looking at his metrics, he seems impressive and I prefer him over the Cards actual draftee Condon.
Eric Longenhagen 10:02 AM
Good question, Bubs. I think he'd be a 700k type in the draft. Sub-70% contact rate guy is scary for Low-A, good plate discipline and power for his age. There's something there but not a first round something
Jeremy Fox 10:02 AM
Can you try to develop a pitcher for an Aaron Ashby-type role?
Eric Longenhagen 10:02 AM
I think you develop them as starters and then it becomes clear their best role is this Ashby type thing. Grant Taylor, etc.
jwise224 10:02 AM
Dynasty question: I can only keep two of Johnny King, Kash Mayfield, and Bishop Letson. Who should I cut loose?
Eric Longenhagen 10:02 AM
Kash
Baby Yoda 10:05 AM
Can you give us an idea of how to think about AFL as a level of competition? Both in terms of "who they're up against" and also "who should be sent and who isn't ready"?
Eric Longenhagen 10:05 AM
High-A pitchers in a Cal League hitting environment. The bullpens here are always bad. I don't know how to solve for this because the pitchers sent here are almost always sent here because they were hurt during the regular season.
Eric Longenhagen 10:07 AM
Okay friends, great chat today. I am speaking at First Pitch Arizona next week during our scheduled chat time, so I will need to either change day/time next week. Be sure to check the chat schedule on the site for updates, I'll try to come up with a solution that is creative and fun (like maybe chatting live during Fall Stars?)
Eric Longenhagen 10:07 AM
TTFN
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-10-30-26/

#ericlongenhagen #chat #happyfriday #desertvista #vistacompound #reimer #position #jeffersonrojas #lidom #clifford

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Job Posting: Colorado Rockies – Multiple Openings Direct links ...

2026-10-30T18:12:36Z

Job Posting: Colorado Rockies – Multiple Openings

Direct links to applications (please see job details below):
Affiliate Technology & Data Fellow (Spokane WA, Fresno CA)
Baseball Analytics Fellow
Affiliate Technology & Data Fellow (Spokane WA, Fresno CA)
About Us
The Colorado Rockies Baseball Club is embracing the climb, committed to building a championship-caliber organization on the field, in the clubhouse, and throughout our business operations. Playing at altitude presents unique competitive challenges and opportunities, and we embrace innovation, collaboration, and evidence-based practices to support elite performance. Rooted in the traditions of America’s pastime, we operate with integrity, service, quality, and trust while striving to create an exceptional experience for our players, staff, and fans.
Position Summary
The Affiliate Technology & Data Fellow supports Baseball Operations and the minor league coaching staff by coordinating day-to-day video and technology operations at an assigned affiliate. Approximately 75% of the role focuses on video capture, technology operations, and maintaining accurate, reliable video and data. The remaining responsibilities vary based on the fellow’s skills and may include analysis, scouting reports, research, model development, or on-field coaching support. This position requires reliability, attention to detail, and the ability to work independently while collaborating with coaches, players, and Baseball Operations staff.
Essential Duties & Responsibilities
Manage day-to-day video and technology operations for the assigned affiliate, supporting the coaching staff, players, and Player Development department.
Capture, tag, and upload video for the assigned affiliate using BATS software for all games throughout the season, and collect video and data from bullpens, batting practice, and defensive work.
Set up, test, and troubleshoot video and baseball technology equipment to support games, practices, and player development activities.
Review captured video and collected data for accuracy, completeness, and timely availability, addressing or escalating issues as needed.
Organize the use of other baseball technology (Trackman, Hawkeye, Edgertronic, Blast Motion, PitchBase, TruMedia, etc.) and share information as needed.
Contribute to analysis of video, tracking, and performance data to produce reports for coaches, players, and other non-technical audiences.
Collaborate with coaches and analysts to prepare advance scouting materials for each series.
Work with coaches and coordinators to create in-house instructional videos for demonstration, teaching, and development.
Additional Responsibilities
Depending on the fellow’s skills, career interests, and team needs:
Support analytical projects, baseball research, model development, or scouting reports in collaboration with Research & Development, Baseball Technology, and coaching staff.
Assist coaches with on-field drills, bullpens, and batting cage sessions.
Perform other duties as assigned by the front office.
Job Qualifications
Advanced knowledge of baseball rules, scoring, and statistics
Passion for the game of baseball.
Extremely motivated, with a strong work ethic and problem-solving skills, with the desire to learn and grow.
Detail-oriented, strong organizational skills, and multi-tasking abilities.
Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationships with members of the Club’s on-field staff and players.
Strong interpersonal skills, including oral and written communication.
Consistent, punctual, and regular attendance, while presenting a professional image and demeanor.
Ability to manage tight deadlines and multiple priorities while maintaining focus and accuracy.
Preferred Skills
Experience working in professional sports preferred.
Experience working with baseball video, technology, and data preferred.
Experience with data analysis, statistics, and data visualization (e.g., Python, R, SQL, Excel, Tableau) preferred.
Training & Development
Fellows receive training in the video and technology systems, equipment, and workflows required for their daily responsibilities.
Mentorship and project opportunities are tailored to the fellow’s skills and career interests, in alignment with team needs.
Work Schedule & Location
This is a fellowship position, with specific hours and days to be determined based on the needs of the minor league team and the baseball season.
The role requires flexibility to work evenings, weekends, and holidays as needed.
Location: Spokane WA or Fresno CA.
Travel with the assigned minor league team throughout the season is required.
Physical Job Requirements
Most of the work involves being outside, standing, and handling equipment. Approximately 70% of the time will be spent standing and performing tasks related to equipment handling.
About 30% of the work involves sitting at a desk and working on a computer.
Frequent typing and use of a mouse or other input devices are necessary. Good hand-eye coordination and fine motor skills are essential.
The role requires the ability to review and interpret detailed data and visualizations, necessitating good visual acuity and the ability to work with screens for extended periods.
Regular communication via email, video calls, and in-person meetings. Clear verbal and written communication skills are essential.
Compensation & Benefits
Hourly Pay: $17.40 per hour (Fresno); $17.73 per hour (Spokane). The assignment is expected to continue through Sept. or mid-Oct 2027. Total earnings will depend on hours worked, including applicable overtime. This role may come with a housing stipend for non-local candidates.
Full benefits package including medical, dental, vision, 401(k), PTO, and more, subject to plan eligibility and applicable policies.
Application Process:
Applications will be reviewed on a rolling basis but must be received by November 16, 2026. Please note that this is just an estimate, and the posting may be removed or extended at any time.
The estimated time to complete the recruitment process will be by December 1, 2026.
A note for Colorado Rockies employees:
Please apply via the internal job board in UKG by following these prompts: MENU > MYSELF > MY COMPANY > VIEW OPPORTUNITIES > select the position > CONSENT > APPLY NOW
If you cannot access UKG, please list your most recent Manager as an Employee Reference on your application.
EQUAL OPPORTUNITY EMPLOYER
Rockies baseball is for everyone! We pride ourselves on hiring, developing, and promoting talent as an Equal Employment Opportunity Employer. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, national origin, gender, age, religion, disability, veteran status, or any other category protected by law. In addition, we will endeavor to provide reasonable accommodation to otherwise qualified job applicants and employees with known physical or mental disabilities in compliance with the ADA. All employment and promotion decisions will be decided on the basis of qualifications, merit, and business needs. The Colorado Rockies participate in E-Verify and will provide the federal government with your Form I-9 information to confirm that you are authorized to work in the United States
To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.
Baseball Analytics Fellow
POSITION TITLE: Baseball Analytics Fellow
LOCATION: Denver, CO (Coors Field)
DEPARTMENT: Baseball Operations
REPORTS TO: Director, Baseball Research
STATUS: Full-Time, Exempt / Temporary assignment
ABOUT US
The Colorado Rockies Baseball Club is embracing the climb, committed to building a championship-caliber organization on the field, in the clubhouse, and throughout our business operations. Playing at altitude presents unique competitive challenges and opportunities, and we embrace innovation, collaboration, and evidence-based practices to support elite performance. Rooted in the traditions of America’s pastime, we operate with integrity, service, quality, and trust while striving to create an exceptional experience for our players, staff, and fans.
ABOUT THE ROLE
The Baseball Analytics Fellow will support Baseball Operations and Research & Development by preparing, analyzing, and communicating data-driven insights that inform game strategy, player evaluation, scouting, player development, and advance preparation. This role is designed for an early-career analyst with strong technical skills, intellectual curiosity, and a desire to apply quantitative methods to meaningful baseball questions.
In this role, you will work with analysts, coaches, scouts, and Baseball Operations leadership to develop reports, visualizations, models, and research outputs that are clear, timely, and actionable. The ideal candidate is highly autonomous, communicates frequently, manages up effectively, and is comfortable supporting fluctuating baseball-season workflows.
RESPONSIBILITIES
Advance Preparation & Game Strategy
Assist in the preparation, quality review, and distribution of advance scouting reports for upcoming opponents.
Monitor daily lineups, roster moves, transactions, and other league information to support game planning and analysis.
Conduct ad hoc research to support end-game strategy development, including ABS-related questions and comparisons between players, teams, or game situations.
Coordinate and deliver advanced reports to Major League staff in a timely, usable format.
Research, Modeling & Data Preparation
Assist analysts with data preparation, validation, cleaning, and quality checks for modeling and reporting workflows.
Support predictive modeling projects by preparing datasets, engineering features, checking assumptions, and validating outputs.
Conduct research related to player development, scouting, player personnel, league trends, and other Baseball Operations priorities.
Support R&D staff with highly technical analysis, model development, and exploratory research based on departmental needs and the Fellow’s skills and interests.
Reporting, Visualization & Communication
Develop visualizations, dashboards, lightweight tools, and other mechanisms for disseminating analytical results across Baseball Operations.
Translate complex technical findings into clear, concise, and actionable insights for both technical and non-technical stakeholders.
Provide written summaries, presentations, and recommendations that clearly describe methodology, assumptions, limitations, and practical implications.
Help maintain and QA internal datasets, reports, and recurring workflows to ensure accuracy and consistency across sources.
Operational Support
Provide operational support across Baseball Operations and R&D, including recurring reporting, special projects, and time-sensitive requests.
Take ownership of assigned tasks and small-to-medium projects, driving them forward with limited day-to-day supervision.
Collaborate with analysts, developers, scouts, coaches, and front office personnel to understand needs and deliver practical solutions.
Contribute to a positive, curious, and collaborative Baseball Operations environment.
QUALIFICATIONS:
Required
Bachelor’s degree in a technical, quantitative, or otherwise relevant field, or equivalent demonstrated experience.
Proficiency with SQL and at least one statistical programming language, such as R or Python.
Experience preparing, cleaning, validating, and analyzing large or complex datasets.
Foundational understanding of statistics, modeling, data visualization, and research design.
Strong written and verbal communication skills, including the ability to explain analytical work to technical and non-technical audiences.
Demonstrated ability to work autonomously, manage competing priorities, communicate frequently, and proactively surface questions or risks.
Passion for baseball and curiosity about using data to support player evaluation, player development, scouting, and in-game decision-making.
Preferred
Degree or coursework in statistics, mathematics, computer science, data science, engineering, economics, operations research, physics, or a related technical field.
Experience with AWS or another cloud environment.
Experience using Git or similar version control workflows.
Experience developing web applications, dashboards, or interactive tools, including R Shiny, Python-based web apps, or similar frameworks.
Experience with machine learning, predictive modeling, simulation, computer vision, or player-tracking data.
Prior experience using AI tools to support software development, application building, analysis, or workflow automation; experience with Claude or similar tools is a plus.
Familiarity with public baseball research, baseball datasets, player evaluation concepts, scouting processes, or advanced scouting workflows.
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
This role follows the rhythm of the baseball season and requires flexibility based on game schedules, reporting cycles, and Baseball Operation’s needs.
Workload and schedule may fluctuate throughout the season based on game schedules, trade deadlines, draft preparation, player evaluation cycles, and other departmental priorities.
PHYSICAL REQUIREMENTS
Sedentary work: regularly required to remain in a stationary position, use a computer, communicate via phone/video/email, and review information on screens for extended periods.
Occasionally required to move within an office or ballpark environment and attend meetings or events in person.
COMPENSATION & BENEFITS
Salary: at the rate of $60,000 per year. The role is expected to earn approximately $50,000 for the duration of the January 1-October 31 assignment.
This role may come with a housing stipend for non-local candidates.
Full benefits package including medical, dental, vision, 401(k), PTO, and more, subject to plan eligibility and applicable policies.
APPLICATION PROCESS:
Applications will be reviewed on a rolling basis but must be received by November 16, 2026. Please note that this is just an estimate, and the posting may be removed or extended at any time.
The estimated time to complete the recruitment process will be by December 1, 2026.
A note for Colorado Rockies employees:
Please apply via the internal job board in UKG by following these prompts: MENU > MYSELF > MY COMPANY > VIEW OPPORTUNITIES > select the position > CONSENT > APPLY NOW
If you cannot access UKG, please list your most recent Manager as an Employee Reference on your application.
EQUAL OPPORTUNITY EMPLOYER
Rockies baseball is for everyone! We pride ourselves on hiring, developing, and promoting talent as an Equal Employment Opportunity Employer. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, national origin, gender, age, religion, disability, veteran status, or any other category protected by law. In addition, we will endeavor to provide reasonable accommodation to otherwise qualified job applicants and employees with known physical or mental disabilities in compliance with the ADA. All employment and promotion decisions will be decided on the basis of qualifications, merit, and business needs. The Colorado Rockies participate in E-Verify and will provide the federal government with your Form I-9 information to confirm that you are authorized to work in the United States
To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.
The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Colorado Rockies.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/job-posting-colorado-rockies-multiple-openings-3/

#coloradorockies #baseballtechnology #affiliatetechnology #datafellow #operations #development #analyticsfellow #playerdevelopment #support #fresno

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The Brewers Bullpen Was One for the Ages At the outset of the ...

2026-10-30T17:30:20Z

The Brewers Bullpen Was One for the Ages

At the outset of the World Series, I noted that the Brewers had reached the Fall Classic for the first time in 44 years despite not getting much length from their starting pitchers. Through the National League Championship Series, Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser and company averaged just under four innings per turn, an average that didn’t clear that low bar until The Miz…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-brewers-bullpen-was-one-for-the-ages/

#brewersbullpen #ages #worldseries #championshipseries #fallclassic #jacobmisiorowski #loganhenderson #robertgasser #leaguechampionship #nationalleague

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Just How Good Was Cooper Pratt in the World Series? Cooper Pratt ...

2026-10-30T15:29:51Z

Just How Good Was Cooper Pratt in the World Series?

Cooper Pratt doesn’t drink alcohol, but he should never have to buy a Fanta in Wisconsin again for as long as he lives. The 22-year-old shortstop had a World Series for the ages, stroking eight hits in his 19 at-bats (.421 batting average) and driving in a series-high seven runs, including one that would have clinched the trophy if not for a blown save. It was a remarkable, probably MVP-worthy…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/just-how-good-was-cooper-pratt-in-the-world-series/

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Effectively Wild Episode 2550: Won in a Milwaukee Ben Lindbergh ...

2026-10-30T05:03:23Z

Effectively Wild Episode 2550: Won in a Milwaukee

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the end of the World Series and 2026 season: the big moments of Games 4 and 5, the Brewers’ victory and overall October run, and what, if anything, other teams will take away from Milwaukee’s success. They also discuss the ideal last out of a World Series, how this postseason’s level of excitement stacks up historically, what to expect from offseason EW, and more.
Audio intro: The Gagnés, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Ted O., “Effectively Wild Theme”
Link to Ben on the Brewers
Link to Baumann on Game 5
Link to Jaffe on the Brewers
Link to ZiPS odds
Link to Rickey speech
Link to Contreras quote
Link to Orlovsky story
Link to Roffe hire
Link to MLBTR on Kleine
Link to Ball on Brewers/Rays
Link to Bryant play
Link to Theo quote
Link to Doyle tweet
Link to Ashby story
Link to Smoltz quote
Link to cWPA spreadsheet
Link to 2026 pivotal plays
Link to Sam on Chourio/Miller
Link to postseason HR leaders
Link to lockout primer
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Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2550-won-in-a-milwaukee/

#effectivelywild #wildepisode #link #wildtheme #brewerslink #worldseries #wildsubreddit #millerlink #kleinelink #milwaukee

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The Brewers and the Most Dominant Postseason Runs of the Division ...

2026-10-29T18:59:15Z

The Brewers and the Most Dominant Postseason Runs of the Division Play Era

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Fifty-seven years after their lone season as the Seattle Pilots, 56 after a used car salesman brought them to Milwaukee at the end of spring training, and 44 after they won their first pennant, the Milwaukee Brewers are world champions. After nearly completing a four-game sweep on Tuesday night before the Rays rallied in the 12th inning, they finished the job on Wednesday night with a 4-1 victory.
There’s plenty to be said about the individual performances of this year’s champions. William Contreras won World Series MVP honors by hitting .381/.435/.429, throwing out four would-be basestealers, and winning 10 out of 13 ABS challenges. Jackson Chourio gave Contreras a run for the money in the MVP race, tying a 98-year-old record held by Babe Ruth by collecting 10 hits over the first four games of the World Series, and leading all players with 11 hits and a .458 batting average. Cooper Pratt collected six straight hits in Games 4 and 5, batting .421/.455/.684 while leading all players in slugging percentage and RBI (seven). Aaron Ashby set a postseason reliever record with 18 consecutive scoreless innings, and allowed just one baserunner in 5.1 World Series innings while striking out nine. Likely National League Cy Young winner Jacob Misiorowski, seemingly low on gas during the first two rounds of the postseason, bookended the World Series with a pair of strong starts totaling 10.2 innings while allowing just one run. Speaking of bookends, Chourio, Contreras, and reliever Antonio Senzatela were all members of Team Venezuela’s World Baseball Classic-winning squad, joining Alex Bregman and Luke Gregerson of the 2017 Astros and Team USA as the only players to win both championships in the same calendar year.
Beyond all that, it’s worth placing the Brewers’ postseason run in some historical context. For starters, their eight straight wins — from Game 4 of the Division Series against the Padres through their four-game sweep of the two-time defending champion Dodgers in the League Championship Series to their first three wins over the Rays in the World Series — tied a single-season record held by the 2004 Red Sox, 2005 White Sox, 2014 Royals, and 2019 Nationals. (Such a record wouldn’t even have been possible before 1985, when the ALCS and NLCS expanded from a best-of-five series to a best of seven.) Additionally, the Brewers are the fifth team of the Wild Card Era (1995 onward) to lose two or fewer postseason games while winning it all. They very nearly became the third such team to do so with only one loss, but the baseball gods refused to cooperate with that version of this article.
Dating back to 1969, the dawn of division play, the multi-round playoff system, and the aforementioned Pilots — who joined the newly-founded American League West along with the expansion Kansas City Royals — the Brewers are the 13th championship winners to complete the postseason while losing no more than two games. They fell just short of becoming the second to sweep both the LCS and the World Series:
World Series Winners Since 1969 with Two or Fewer Postseason Losses
Wild Card Era
Season
W
L
W-L%
Division Series
League Championship Series
World Series
Yankees
1999
11
1
.917
3-0 (Rangers)
4-1 (Red Sox)
4-0 (Braves)
White Sox
2005
11
1
.917
3-0 (Red Sox)
4-1 (Angels)
4-0 (Astros)
Yankees
1998
11
2
.846
3-0 (Rangers)
4-2 (Cleveland)
4-0 (Padres)
Astros
2022
11
2
.846
3-0 (Mariners)
4-0 (Yankees)
4-2 (Phillies)
Brewers
2026
11
2
.846
3-1 (Padres)
4-0 (Dodgers)
4-1 (Rays)
Pre-Wild Card Era
Season
W
L
W-L%
Division Series
League Championship Series
World Series
Reds
1976
7
0
1.000
—
3-0 (Phillies)
4-0 (Yankees)
Athletics
1989
8
1
.889
—
4-1 (Blue Jays)
4-0 (Giants)
Mets
1969
7
1
.875
—
3-0 (Braves)
4-1 (Orioles)
Orioles
1970
7
1
.875
—
3-0 (Twins)
4-1 (Reds)
Tigers
1984
7
1
.875
—
3-0 (Royals)
4-1 (Padres)
Reds
1990
8
2
.800
—
4-2 (Pirates)
4-0 (Athletics)
Athletics
1974
7
2
.778
—
3-1 (Orioles)
4-1 (Dodgers)
Orioles
1983
7
2
.778
—
3-1 (White Sox)
4-1 (Phillies)
Yellow = series sweep
The 1976 Reds remain the only team to go undefeated through an entire postseason, with the caveat that the playoff format then featured just two rounds instead of three or four, and a best-of-five LCS. They were the second consecutive version of the Big Red Machine to win it all, a star-laden team that featured future Hall of Famers Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan and Tony Perez, as well as 17-time All-Star and former MVP Pete Rose (in his first full season at third base), nine-time All-Star and five-time Gold Glove-winning shortstop Dave Concepcion, five-time All-Star left fielder George Foster, four-time Gold Glove-winning center fielder Cesar Geronimo, three-time All-Star right fielder Ken Griffey Sr., and 1976 NL Rookie of the Year Pat Zachry. They went 102-60 during the regular season, not quite as strong as their 1975 squad (108-54), but where those Reds eked out a thrilling seven-game World Series victory over the Red Sox after an NLCS sweep of the Pirates, the ’76 squad flattened everything in its path. They came from behind to win all three games of their NLCS over the Phillies; in the finale, they overcame late-inning deficits of 3-0 in the seventh inning and 6-4 in the ninth to clinch the pennant on Griffey’s walk-off single. Only in Game 4 of the World Series did they trail the Yankees, and that was for just three innings.
These Brewers were no strangers to trailing; indeed, they were comeback kings. Already the best team in the majors over the course of the regular season thanks to their 103 wins and +214 run differential, they seemed never to panic when they fell behind during this run. In eight of their 11 postseason victories, they trailed at one point or another before inevitably piecing together the necessary rally, usually while their dominant bullpen — which delivered a 1.38 ERA in 65 innings overall, highlighted by Ashby’s record-setting 18-inning scoreless streak — held the line. Twice they overcame early 4-0 deficits to win, first in the NLCS clincher against the Dodgers, when Shohei Ohtani finally broke through with a three-run second-inning homer off Dustin May, and then in Game 2 of the World Series, after the Rays piled up four first-inning runs against Logan Henderson.
Indeed, they were never out of any game, forced to play out the string and bide their time until the next contest. Both of their losses were by a single run, and they very nearly pulled those out games out, too. In Game 3 of the Division Series against the Padres, they were down 2-0 after three innings, tied the game (briefly) in the fifth, and had the tying run at second and the go-ahead run at first when Christian Yelich grounded into a game-ending double play. In Game 4 of the World Series, the Rays had early 1-0 and 2-1 leads, but Milwaukee sent the game into extra innings and then Pratt hit what might have stood as the series-clinching homer in the top of the 12th. They might have closed that one out had they not called upon Shane Drohan, their seventh reliever of the night, to pitch for the first time in 12 days.
Below I’ll have more on the other teams in the table, but first, here’s a second snapshot that goes beyond won-loss records to situate the Brewers in terms of Pythagorean winning percentage, based upon runs scored and allowed during their postseason run. This brings in one World Series winner who lost three postseason games but nonetheless handily outscored their opponents:
Highest Postseason Pythagenpat Winning Percentage Among World Series Winners Since 1969
Team
Season
W
L
W-L%
RS
RA
R Dif
Pyth
Orioles
1983
7
2
.778
37
12
+25
.864
Red Sox
2007
11
3
.786
99
46
+53
.810
Reds
1976
7
0
1.000
41
19
+22
.809
Orioles
1970
7
1
.875
60
30
+30
.788
White Sox
2005
11
1
.917
67
34
+33
.780
Tigers
1984
7
1
.875
37
19
+18
.770
Yankees
1999
11
1
.917
58
31
+27
.765
Yankees
1998
11
2
.846
62
34
+28
.743
Reds
1990
8
2
.800
42
23
+19
.736
Brewers
2026
11
2
.846
59
33
+26
.735
Mets
1969
7
1
.875
42
24
+18
.734
Athletics
1989
8
1
.889
58
35
+23
.729
As with a couple of my recent forays into the topic, here I’m using a version of the Pythagorean formula called Pythagenpat. Bill James’ original Pythagorean formula, introduced in his self-published 1980 Baseball Abstract, estimates winning percentages using the formula Winning % = RS^2 /(RS^2 +RA^2). Further refinements by James and other sabermetricians have shown that using a slightly smaller exponent increases the accuracy of the estimate. The Pythagenpat formula, where the exponent (X) itself is a function of the scoring environment via the formula X = ((RS + RA)/G)^0.287, is the one we use for our Projected Standings pages. For this version, I’m using each postseason’s per-team, per-game scoring, which for the teams in that table has ranged from 2.81 in 1983 to 5.18 in ’89; this year, the average was 3.56 runs per game.
And now, some notes about the other teams in the table, starting with the Brewers’ Wild Card-era company.
1998-99 Yankees
Managed by Joe Torre and led by the homegrown Core Four of Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, Jorge Posada, and Mariano Rivera, plus Bernie Williams, the first two champions from the sport’s fourth (and most recent) threepeat started their run with an AL record-setting 114-48 regular season. They began the postseason by not only sweeping the Rangers, but holding them to one run over three games (a feat they would replicate the next year). They had a brief hiccup in the ALCS against a powerhouse Cleveland lineup featuring Manny Ramirez and Jim Thome, falling behind two games to one due in part to Chuck Knoblauch’s braincramp in the 12th inning of Game 2, but they won the final three game to take the series, then swept the Padres in the World Series, with no. 9 hitter Scott Brosius taking home MVP honors thanks to a .471/.471/.824 performance with two home runs.
The next season, after acquiring reigning Cy Young winner Roger Clemens in February, they went 98-64, steamrolled the Rangers, then for the first time squared off against their AL East rivals, the Red Sox, during the ALCS. They scratched out a pair of one-run wins during the first two games but were trounced 13-1 in Game 3, the much ballyhooed Clemens-Pedro Martinez matchup, then rebounded to take the next two games in Fenway Park. In a rematch of the 1996 World Series, they swept the Braves while holding them to nine runs over four games, wrapping things up with Clemens outdueling John Smoltz in the finale (the first World Series clincher this scribe attended).
2005 White Sox
A year after the Red Sox laid their 86-year championship drought to rest, the White Sox did the same to their own 88-year drought. After going 99-63 during the regular season, they swept the defending champions in the Division Series, overcame a loss to the Angels in the ALCS opener, then reeled off eight straight wins to take the ALCS and World Series. Paul Konerko, who hit 40 homers during the regular season, added five more in the postseason while the durable four-man rotation of Jose Contreras, Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia and Jon Garland delivered at least seven innings in all but one start. In Games 2–5 of the ALCS, that quartet threw four straight complete games, a mind-boggling accomplishment in a 21st-century context, and for the series needed just one reliever (Neal Cotts) who recorded all of two outs. For as emphatic as their World Series sweep was, all four games against the Astros were decided by either one or two runs, capped by a 1-0 win in the clincher.
2022 Astros
After going 106-56 during the regular season, the squad led by Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Bregman, and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander won its fourth pennant in a six-year span and second in a row under manager Dusty Baker. After squeezing past the Mariners by a total of four runs during their three-game ALDS sweep, they laid a four-game sweep on the Yankees in the ALCS, holding them to a .162/.232/.269 batting line with nine runs. The World Series was much more competitive, as the Bryce Harper– and Kyle Schwarber-led Phillies took a two-games-to-one series lead before the Astros turned things around, starting with the first combined no-hitter in World Series history thanks to Cristian Javier and three relievers in Game 4. Over the final three games, they held Philadelphia to just three runs, and earned Baker his first World Series ring in 25 years of managing.
Moving on to the other pre-Wild Card Era teams with two losses or fewer…
1989 Athletics
The second of three straight Oakland pennant winners under manager Tony La Russa, these A’s were the only ones of that trio to win a championship. After going 99-63 during the regular season, they rolled over the Blue Jays in a five-game ALCS that featured series MVP Rickey Henderson hitting .400/.609/1.000 with two homers, seven walks, zero strikeouts, and eight steals. Their Bay Area World Series against the Giants was marred by the Loma Prieta earthquake, which killed 63 people, injured 3,757 and necessitated a 10-day hiatus before Game 3 could be played. Because of that delay, they only needed two starting pitchers, Dave Stewart and Mike Moore, with the former winning World Series MVP honors.
1969 Mets
In their first seven years of existence (1962-68), the Mets never won more than 73 games in a season or finished above ninth place in a 10-team league, but in 1969 under manager Gil Hodges, they rocketed to 100 wins, then swept a Braves team led by future Hall of Famers Henry Aaron, Orlando Cepeda, and Phil Niekro in the first NLCS. Facing the 109-win Orioles in the World Series, they lost the opener 4-1, but won the next four behind Series MVP Donn Clendenon’s three homers and the work of young starters Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, and Gary Gentry, thus pulling off one of the most stunning upsets in the history of the Fall Classic.
1970 Orioles
A year after being upset by the Mets, the Orioles won 108 games, then swept the Twins in the ALCS, collectively hitting .330/.395/.550 while scoring 36 runs in those three games. They continued to rake (.292/.366/.509) during the World Series against the Reds, setting a record for a five-game series with 10 homers, including two apiece by Brooks Robinson — who earned MVP honors on the strength of several jaw-dropping defensive plays — Frank Robinson, and Boog Powell, plus a grand slam by pitcher Dave McNally. While Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver led the Orioles to four pennants, including three in a row from 1969–71, this was his only championship.
1984 Tigers
Under former Big Red Machine manager Sparky Anderson, and led by the homegrown nucleus of Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker, Kirk Gibson, Lance Parrish, Jack Morris, and Dan Petry, the Tigers bolted from the gate by winning 35 of their first 40 games and finishing with 104 wins. They held the Royals to four runs in the last three-game LCS, never trailing at any point, and while they lost Game 2 of the World Series against the Padres, it was their only lapse. Trammell won Series MVP honors on the strength of a .450/.500/.800 performance with two homers.
1990 Reds
In the first season after Rose was placed on the permanently ineligible list for gambling, Lou Piniella guided the Reds to their first division title in 11 seasons. Barry Larkin, Eric Davis, Chris Sabo and Jose Rijo were the stars, while the Nasty Boys bullpen trio of righty Rob Dibble and lefties Norm Charlton and Randy Myers locked down the late innings; Cincinnati relievers combined for a 0.29 ERA in 31.1 postseason innings, including 13 scoreless in the World Series. The Reds won a tight six-game NLCS over the Pirates, with three of their wins of the one-run variety. The World Series against the A’s was comparatively smooth sailing, as they won two lopsided games and two more by a single run, with Rijo the MVP on the basis of 15.1 innings of one-run work.
1974 Athletics
With Alvin Dark taking over as manager after Dick Williams resigned, the colorful, mustachio’d A’s — who starred future Hall of Famers Reggie Jackson, Rollie Fingers, and Catfish Hunter, as well as Sal Bando, Vida Blue, and Joe Rudi — won just 90 regular season games, and lost the ALCS opener to the Orioles, 6-1. Then, as though they flipped a switch, they held B

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-brewers-and-the-most-dominant-postseason-runs-of-the-division-play-era/

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 12 of 12 Katie ...

2026-10-29T18:18:33Z

Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 12 of 12

Katie Stratman-Imagn Images
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2026-27 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive a contract at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Statistics are prorated to full season values where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2027 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for 12 of this year’s free agents — in this case, one last group of relievers.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contract-crowdsourcing-2026-27-ballot-12-of-12/

#contractcrowdsourcing #worldseries #free #imagesfree #ballot #war

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The Princess and St. Pete Pitcher’s Mound On Wednesday night, ...

2026-10-29T16:56:28Z

The Princess and St. Pete Pitcher’s Mound

On Wednesday night, for the second time in two days, the pitcher’s mound at Tropicana Field became the star of the World Series. Jacob Misiorowski, he of the 6-foot-7 frame and 7-foot-6 extension, was having trouble finding purchase with his front foot when he finished his absurdly long stride. On Tuesday night, Cam Booser, whose extension is not far from average, had suffered similar…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-princess-and-st-pete-pitchers-mound/

#petepitcher #mound #worldseries #tropicanafield #cambooser #jacobmisiorowski

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 10 of 12 Nathan Ray ...

2026-10-29T16:17:24Z

Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 10 of 12

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2026-27 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive a contract at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Statistics are prorated to full season values where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2027 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for nine of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of position players primarily composed of outfielders.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contract-crowdsourcing-2026-27-ballot-10-of-12/

#contractcrowdsourcing #worldseries #free #imagesfree #ballot #nathanray #war

#rss #feeds #linksharing #qwibbit

Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 11 of 12 Darren ...

2026-10-29T15:36:46Z

Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 11 of 12

Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2026-27 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive a contract at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Statistics are prorated to full season values where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2027 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for 10 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of players looking to make the jump (back) to MLB from NPB and the KBO.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contract-crowdsourcing-2026-27-ballot-11-of-12/

#contractcrowdsourcing #worldseries #free #imagesfree #ballot #kbo #war #mlb

#rss #feeds #linksharing #qwibbit

Ring Out a Song of Good Cheer: The Milwaukee Brewers Are World ...

2026-10-29T08:25:17Z

Ring Out a Song of Good Cheer: The Milwaukee Brewers Are World Champions

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — The past nine years were the best run in Milwaukee Brewers history: eight postseason appearances, six division titles, 869 regular-season wins, for a 93-win-per-season pace over almost a full decade. An MVP, a Cy Young — probably two, by this time next month — and plenty of turnover: two front office bosses, two field managers, 193 players. But 11 teams had been to the…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ring-out-a-song-of-good-cheer-the-milwaukee-brewers-are-world-champions/

#milwaukeebrewers #fla #petersburg #mvp

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Members-Only Game Thread: World Series – Oct 28, 2026 Welcome ...

2026-10-29T02:23:10Z

Members-Only Game Thread: World Series – Oct 28, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the World Series game today. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/members-only-game-thread-world-series-oct-28-2026/

#worldseries #gamethread #opengame #staff #fangraphsstaff #please

#rss #feeds #linksharing #qwibbit

Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 8 of 12 Benny Sieu-Imagn ...

2026-10-28T19:13:35Z

Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 8 of 12

Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2026-27 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive a contract at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Statistics are prorated to full season values where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2027 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for 12 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of starting pitchers.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contract-crowdsourcing-2026-27-ballot-8-of-12/

#rss #feeds #linksharing #qwibbit

Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 9 of 12 Katie ...

2026-10-28T18:35:34Z

Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 9 of 12

Katie Stratman-Imagn Images
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2026-27 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive a contract at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Statistics are prorated to full season values where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2027 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for 12 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of relievers, some of whom have starting experience.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contract-crowdsourcing-2026-27-ballot-9-of-12/

#contractcrowdsourcing #worldseries #free #imagesfree #ballot #war

#rss #feeds #linksharing #qwibbit

Rays Bounce Into Game 5 After 12-Inning Thriller ST. PETERSBURG, ...

2026-10-28T08:46:36Z

Rays Bounce Into Game 5 After 12-Inning Thriller

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — It didn’t always feel like a Rays home game. Multitudes of Brewers fans, unable to procure or afford tickets to Wisconsin’s first World Series games in 44 years, had flown to Florida to see their team clinch. But home field advantage played a part in the Rays’ improbable, dramatic 12-inning 4-3 win in Game 4 to extend the World Series at least one more night. The Tropicana…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rays-bounce-into-game-5-after-12-inning-thriller/

#worldseries #rays #game #fla #petersburg #florida #wisconsin #multitudes

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Effectively Wild Episode 2549: The Hits Keep Coming Ben Lindbergh ...

2026-10-28T07:37:56Z

Effectively Wild Episode 2549: The Hits Keep Coming

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the history of teams that take 3-0 leads in best-of-seven series, the highlights and lowlights of the first three games of the World Series, the need for an objective check-swing standard, complaints about the broadcasting of John Smoltz, and Rob Manfred’s competitive-balance comments.
Audio intro: Alex Ferrin, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Cory Brent, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Link to Sheehan on odds
Link to Posnanski on odds
Link to ZiPS odds
Link to Contreras piece
Link to Baumann on the G3 rally
Link to Langs on the rally
Link to Sam on the Caminero play
Link to Ashby streak story
Link to Langs on scoring 4-plus
Link to checked-swing videos
Link to checked-swing wiki
Link to swing definition article
Link to AFL challenge system
Link to Sam on checked swings
Link to McCalvy tweet
Link to Nightengale tweet
Link to Laurila column
Link to ratings article 1
Link to ratings article 2
Link to Megill quote
Link to Chourio/Hicks play
Link to Manfred quotes
Link to Rays coaches page
Link to Jeff/Dave/Williamson story
Link to Curt’s second pod
Link to September article on Baker
Link to Adam on Baker
Link to Rasmussen’s 2026 splits
Link to Rasmussen’s career splits
Link to Walls defensive stats
Link to Adam on Walls
Link to Pham on defensive stats
Link to Tango on DRS vs. FRV
Link to Blum on ticket pricing
Link to Rosenthal report
Sponsor Us on Patreon
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Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com
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Get Our Merch!
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2549-the-hits-keep-coming/

#effectivelywild #link #bakerlink #wildtheme #frvlink #wildsubreddit #robmanfred #johnsmoltz #megrowley #worldseries

#rss #feeds #linksharing #qwibbit

Members-Only Game Thread: World Series – Oct 27, 2026 Welcome ...

2026-10-28T01:54:20Z

Members-Only Game Thread: World Series – Oct 27, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the World Series game today. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/members-only-game-thread-world-series-oct-27-2026/

#worldseries #gamethread #opengame #staff #fangraphsstaff #please

#rss #feeds #linksharing #qwibbit

Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 6 of 12 Denis Poroy-Imagn ...

2026-10-27T20:39:44Z

Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 6 of 12

Denis Poroy-Imagn Images
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2026-27 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive a contract at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Statistics are prorated to full season values where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2027 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for nine of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of first basemen and designated hitters.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contract-crowdsourcing-2026-27-ballot-6-of-12/

#contractcrowdsourcing #worldseries #free #imagesfree #ballot #war

#rss #feeds #linksharing #qwibbit

On Chandler Simpson’s Catch In a different universe – perhaps ...

2026-10-27T20:03:21Z

On Chandler Simpson’s Catch

In a different universe – perhaps one in which Junior Caminero fielded William Contreras’ two-out bouncer in the top of the fifth inning and fired to first base rather than second – Chandler Simpson’s stunning, self-obliterating catch in the second inning would have been the lasting memory of Game 3, and maybe the entire 2026 World Series. In service of the sublime, Simpson hurled himself into…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/on-chandler-simpsons-catch/

#chandlersimpson #worldseries #catch #juniorcaminero #game #william

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How Do the Bullpens Line up for World Series Game 4? Ken Blaze ...

2026-10-27T18:55:01Z

How Do the Bullpens Line up for World Series Game 4?

Ken Blaze and Michael McLoone-Imagn Images
Throughout the playoffs, the Brewers have blitzed past their opposition so quickly that their bullpen management has felt like an afterthought. The Rays, meanwhile, have subsisted on having their starters work deep while keeping their bullpen relatively fresh. Those two trends haven’t played much of a role in the World Series yet, and they might not; the Brewers are on the verge of a sweep, after all, and a 10-1 rout yesterday left the leverage arms in both ‘pens fresh. But with tonight’s Game 4 pitting Griffin Jax against a yet-to-be-announced Brewers opener, relievers are squarely on the menu, so let’s review how each ‘pen stacks up in terms of rest and familiarity.
Brewers Bullpen
MIL Pitcher/TBR Hitter Matchups, 2026 World Series
Player
Yandy Díaz
Jonathan Aranda
Chandler Simpson
Junior Caminero
Liam Hicks
Jonny DeLuca
Victor Mesa Jr.
Taylor Walls
Richie Palacios
Aaron Ashby
1
1
2
2
1
Abner Uribe
2
2
2
2
1
Trevor Megill
1
1
1
1
1
1
Antonio Senzatela
1
1
1
1
1
Brandon Woodruff
1
1
1
Dustin May
1
1
1
1
JoJo Romero
1
1
1
1
DL Hall
1
1
1
1
The Brewers went to the same pattern twice to open the World Series: Abner Uribe for the top of the lineup, then Aaron Ashby afterwards for a longer stint. I don’t know the exact size of the reliever familiarity effect, but it definitely isn’t zero, and with a full bullpen game, the Brewers will have to think through their matchups carefully to minimize how many looks at the same guy they’re giving the opposition.
Luckily, they’re well-equipped to do just that. Kyle Harrison and Shane Drohan, both lefties, aren’t listed here because they haven’t appeared in this series, but they’re also available, and I expect at least one of them to pitch today. You can imagine something like this as a base plan, with Dustin May taking the mound to open the game:
Sample Brewers Bullpen Plan, Game 4
Player
Yandy Díaz
Jonathan Aranda
Chandler Simpson
Junior Caminero
Liam Hicks
Jonny DeLuca
Richie Palacios
Victor Mesa Jr.
Taylor Walls
Dustin May
x
x
x
x
Shane Drohan
x
x
x
x
x
Antonio Senzatela
x
x
x
x
JoJo Romero
x
x
x
Aaron Ashby
x
x
Aaron Ashby (cont.)
x
x
x
x
x
Abner Uribe
x
x
x
x
Trevor Megill
x
x
x
x
DL Hall
x
x
x
Quick note: Ryan Vilade and Ben Williamson both regularly pinch-hit for lefties, so the bottom of the lineup (and perhaps Aranda’s spot, we’ll see) isn’t fixed. Those guys will come in at some point, which is part of why I like using Uribe against the bottom half of the lineup. He might get better-than-expected matchups if the Rays are aggressive with their pinch-hitting early.
The idea here is to get all of the best relievers into the game while avoiding any matchups that have already repeated and otherwise prioritizing the handedness advantage. It also provides a few useful places to let a pitcher go longer if they’re rolling. Pat Murphy seems content to let his relievers extend a bit if they’re pitching well – an admirable tactic, in my opinion – which adds to the flexibility. If JoJo Romero makes short work of his short segment, he can safely be extended through the bottom of the lineup. Ashby, of course, is always a threat to pitch more than one inning. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dustin May got the lineup once through if he starts out well; if there’s traffic on the basepaths when the bottom half of the lineup comes up, though, I expect a lefty to enter.
Another option would be to flip Trevor Megill and Ashby in the order. It feels weird using your closer earlier than his two setup men, but there are no style points in the World Series, and it would set up Ashby to pitch as long as he’s able to late in the game. They could also use DL Hall earlier and test him out against the top of the lineup, though I’d prefer to save him for high-leverage spots against lefties. But regardless of how the elite relievers are ordered, the Brewers look well set up to present a ton of tough matchups to the Rays. Ashby hasn’t seen the top of the lineup much at all, so I like using him there, and Uribe is plenty capable of attacking the bottom of the order.
Another benefit of this plan: It’s eminently adaptable if circumstances dictate a change. One way to get in trouble in a bullpen game is to run out of pitchers. If you use all your long relievers early and then your one-inning pitchers struggle, figuring out how to get 27 outs can become a struggle. But because of their construction, the Brewers have several options for covering extra outs even if things don’t go to plan. Ashby has been doing it all fall. Hall pitches multiple innings at a stretch when necessary, and he’s fresh. If May melts down spectacularly, the Brewers could deploy Romero to escape the inning and then ask Drohan to cover the next few to get back on schedule; he’s a starter working out of the bullpen.
Another way of looking at this? The Brewers bullpen is really good, and that means that there aren’t many bad ways to line them up. I thought it might be more difficult to set up only good matchups while figuring out an entire game’s worth of pitching, but as it turns out, having a few elite multi-inning relievers and an embarrassment of riches overall makes things much easier. This might be a bullpen game, but the Brewers are well-equipped to make it look like an intricately-designed run prevention machine.
Rays Bullpen
TBR Pitcher/MIL Hitter Matchups, 2026 World Series
Player
Jackson Chourio
Jake Bauers
Christian Yelich
William Contreras
Brice Turang
Garrett Mitchell
Cooper Pratt
Sal Frelick
David Hamilton
Steven Matz
1
1
1
3
1
2
2
1
Kevin Kelly
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
Cam Booser
1
1
2
2
2
1
Cole Sulser
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Tyler Wells
1
2
1
1
Garrett Cleavinger
1
1
1
1
1
Ian Seymour
1
1
1
1
1
The Rays haven’t used closer Bryan Baker yet this series, but the rest of the relievers have some miles on them. That presents a tricky problem, because they don’t have as many flexible options as Milwaukee to take the pressure off. They don’t like the matchup of Cam Booser against righties, particularly elite righties, and he’s already had to face William Contreras once to boot. That more or less limits him to the bottom half of the order, but he’s faced them twice already, and they kicked his teeth in last night, with all four batters he faced reaching.
To me, that suggests a piggyback plan might be the best option. Jax went four innings in his last start, and I’d be interested in giving him a similar workload today. More specifically, I’d plan on giving him the first 13 batters, two times through against the top four, ending by facing Contreras. After that, my ideal plan would be to give Ian Seymour, another starter working out of the bullpen, the next 14 batters – the bottom five guys in the lineup twice, sandwiched around one trip through the top of the order. That’s 27 batters; Kevin Kelly and Baker could either try to slam the door on their own from there if things have gone efficiently, or the Rays could use those two along with Tyler Wells and Booser if the Brewers are putting a lot of baserunners aboard.
This plan is far more speculative than the one I advanced for the Brewers, though. It relies on two different piggyback starters working through a tough Milwaukee order more than once each, without getting into a jam that leads to Kevin Cash pulling them. The Inevitable Reliever Blowup Theory might be false, but the Inevitable Brewers Offensive Explosion Theory has been looking quite solid this October. No one has survived contact with the Brewers offense; it would hardly be a surprise if they continued to chew through opposing arms tonight.
To that end, there are a few obvious places to hunt extra batters faced and try to make the arms I’ve already named go deeper into the game. I’d be open to having Jax pitch two times through the order if he’s efficient through his scheduled trip; I don’t mind the matchup of him against the bottom half of the Milwaukee lineup, particularly if he can surrender a hit without giving up a run. That would likely bring in Wells for a short stint against the top of the lineup, because I do think that letting Seymour go long and having him double up on the Brice Turang-Garrett Mitchell portion of the Brewers lineup is important.
I think the Rays should also consider using Baker the first time that Jackson Chourio bats with a runner on base. Yes, he’s the closer. Yes, the Rays will have to play again tomorrow if they win today. But he’s fresh, and he’s obviously pitching today regardless of how the game goes. If they’re ahead, he’s the closer. If they’re behind, there’s no tomorrow. So would it be that crazy to see him enter in the fourth inning to shut down the top of the Milwaukee order before giving way to Seymour? Not to me, it wouldn’t.
One last point for the Rays bullpen: Southpaw Garrett Cleavinger missed time with injury and wasn’t a lock to even appear in the World Series, but he looked perfectly healthy last night, and he’s actually better against righties than he is against lefties, which gives the Rays extra flexibility if they think he’s 100%. I’d prefer to hold him in reserve to fill in whatever part of my plan fails – because against the Brewers offense, everyone’s plans have been failing.
It’s weird to come to the conclusion that Milwaukee’s pitching plan today is more flexible than Tampa Bay’s. The Brewers are almost certainly going to use more pitchers, and their top guys have put in more work than their counterparts thanks to winning all three games. But the Rays bullpen has worked hard too, and they don’t have the flexible options that will let the Brewers mix and match freely. Their lefty high-leverage guy, Booser, shouldn’t face righties and has also gotten beaten up by the lefties already. Their righty setup man, Kelly, struggles with lefties and rarely goes more than an inning. Baker’s a one-inning guy. The Rays can’t plan on extra length from the back of their bullpen, and they also have to consider matchups when deploying it. That puts them in a bind that the Brewers simply don’t face. It won’t be the factor that determines the World Series, but it’s just another place where the Brewers can make the most of a small edge in team construction.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-do-the-bullpens-line-up-for-world-series-game-4/

#worldseries #bullpensline #aaronashby #brewersbullpen #seriesgame #abneruribe #dustinmay #arandachandler #jonathanaranda #camineroliam

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Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat 10-27-2026 Source ...

2026-10-27T18:18:42Z

Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat 10-27-2026

Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brendan-gawlowski-prospects-chat-10-27-26/

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 7 of 12 David ...

2026-10-27T17:09:22Z

Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 7 of 12

David Frerker-Imagn Images
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2026-27 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive a contract at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Statistics are prorated to full season values where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2027 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for 11 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of relievers.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contract-crowdsourcing-2026-27-ballot-7-of-12/

#contractcrowdsourcing #worldseries #free #imagesfree #ballot #war

#rss #feeds #linksharing #qwibbit

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 10/27/26 Source ...

2026-10-27T16:33:57Z

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 10/27/26

Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-10-27-26/

#rss #feeds #linksharing #qwibbit

Sink, Florida, Sink: Inside the Rally That Broke the World Series ...

2026-10-27T07:38:29Z

Sink, Florida, Sink: Inside the Rally That Broke the World Series Open

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. — Pat Murphy, face stern and wide as ever, stepped forward and cupped his hands to his ears to signal a replay challenge. With runners on first and second and two out in the top of the fifth inning of Game 3 of the World Series, William Contreras had just topped a ball to third. Instead of making a throw across the diamond, Junior Caminero went the short way for the force at…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sink-florida-sink-inside-the-rally-that-broke-the-world-series-open/

#worldseries #patmurphy #williamcontreras #juniorcaminero #fla #petersburg #game

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After Game 3 Rout, the World Series Is (97.67%) Over The first ...

2026-10-27T05:54:47Z

After Game 3 Rout, the World Series Is (97.67%) Over

The first two games of the World Series were each decided by one run. By one measly run on Friday night and one measly run on Saturday night, the Rays found their backs against the wall. Erase a baserunning blunder here or a defensive lapse there, and the series could have been tied, or even 2-0 in favor of Tampa Bay rather than Milwaukee. Such things can haunt a team. In Game 3 on Monday night…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/after-game-3-rout-the-world-series-is-97-67-over/

#worldseries #game #tampabay #rays #saturday #erase

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 3 of 12 Denny Medley-Imagn ...

2026-10-27T01:49:09Z

Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 3 of 12

Denny Medley-Imagn Images
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2026-27 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive a contract at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Statistics are prorated to full season values where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2027 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for eight of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of starting pitchers.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contract-crowdsourcing-2026-27-ballot-3-of-12/

#contractcrowdsourcing #worldseries #free #imagesfree #ballot #war

#rss #feeds #linksharing #qwibbit

Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 4 of 12 Jim Cowsert-Imagn ...

2026-10-27T00:40:50Z

Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 4 of 12

Jim Cowsert-Imagn Images
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2026-27 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive a contract at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Statistics are prorated to full season values where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2027 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for seven of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of outfielders.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contract-crowdsourcing-2026-27-ballot-4-of-12/

#contractcrowdsourcing #worldseries #free #imagesfree #ballot #war

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Members-Only Game Thread: World Series – Oct 26, 2026 Welcome ...

2026-10-27T00:05:28Z

Members-Only Game Thread: World Series – Oct 26, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the World Series game today. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/members-only-game-thread-world-series-oct-26-2026/

#worldseries #gamethread #opengame #staff #fangraphsstaff #please

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 5 of 12 Matt Blewett-Imagn ...

2026-10-26T22:58:11Z

Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 5 of 12

Matt Blewett-Imagn Images
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2026-27 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive a contract at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Statistics are prorated to full season values where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2027 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for seven of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of catchers.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contract-crowdsourcing-2026-27-ballot-5-of-12/

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Liam Hicks Has Been a Fine Catch for the Rays Liam Hicks had an ...

2026-10-26T22:22:45Z

Liam Hicks Has Been a Fine Catch for the Rays

Liam Hicks had an adventurous night during Game 2 of the World Series in Milwaukee. In the first inning, after the Rays had already plated two runs against Brewers starter Logan Henderson, Hicks clubbed a two-run homer — the first homer of this year’s World Series, in fact — to extend the lead to 4-0. In the sixth inning, after that lead had been trimmed to a single run, he was thrown out at the…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/liam-hicks-has-been-a-fine-catch-for-the-rays/

#finecatch #liamhicks #worldseries #rays #loganhenderson #game #milwaukee

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Chandler Simpson Can Fly On Saturday night, in the first inning ...

2026-10-26T21:14:34Z

Chandler Simpson Can Fly

On Saturday night, in the first inning of Game 2 of the World Series in Milwaukee, Rays left fielder Chandler Simpson slapped an RBI single through the left side of the infield. Once the hometown fans had finished groaning and the visitor’s dugout had exhausted its supply of high fives, Simpson’s presence on first base temporarily warped the gravitational pull of the World Series. A chyron…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chandler-simpson-can-fly/

#chandlersimpson #worldseries #game #milwaukee #rbi

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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 10/26/26 Ben Clemens 11:01 AM Hey ...

2026-10-26T20:38:07Z

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 10/26/26

Ben Clemens 11:01 AM
Hey everybody, happy Monday. Really fun pair of World Series games, and I'm getting excited for Game 3 tonight. I'm happy to talk about really pretty much anything baseball-wise, in addition to World Series questions, so if you're wondering whether something's topical enough — it is.
Ben Clemens 11:02 AM
But surely, still most of the questions will be about the WS. Let's get started.
crew87 11:02 AM
Down 2-0, do you think Kevin Cash wishes he would've brought in Baker at some point in the series? Should he? I get not wanting to expose your guys too often to the opposition, but at some point you need to win the game in front of you.
Ben Clemens 11:03 AM
Hm, I'm sure he wishes he came in at some point. But I think Game 2 was the only realistic place where he might have, and the truth is that shuffling the deck chairs around is just shuffling the deck chairs around.
Ben Clemens 11:04 AM
Like, in Game 1, it's actually good he didn't use Baker? They just didn't score enough, you know? Bringing in your closer when you're down the entire game is just a low-percentage play
Ben Clemens 11:05 AM
In Game 2, yeah, the Rays had a lead, bummer Baker didn't pitch. But Cash was trying to use all of his best relievers in that game, which makes sense. The guys who coughed up the lead, Seymour and Wells, have been in his high leverage crew this month.
Ben Clemens 11:05 AM
If you bring in Baker earlier, you're just using those guys to close instead, you know?
Ben Clemens 11:06 AM
I am sure he wishes it was different. But like… sometimes the plans are good and the other team is better.
bosoxforlife 11:06 AM
Please tell me that MLB is going to address this awful checked swing mess. Nobody has any idea what is going on, least of which the umpires.
sliderinthedirt 11:06 AM
I really hope they move forward with the absurd 45-degree angle on the automated check swing system because it’d be really funny to see slow bat guys like Arraez abuse the hell out of it
Ben Clemens 11:07 AM
Super glad for all the check swing dialogue we're going to get this winter, he said sadly
Ben Clemens 11:08 AM
I don't know, this is a tough problem. I think it's pretty clear that the 45-degree angle is not something they'd use in the majors, as it's very hitter-friendly. But I'm open to the idea of making check swings mean something different than they do now, because they haven't really been umped the same way throughout history.
Ben Clemens 11:08 AM
anyone who tells you that some central intent is being preserved is trying to deceive you
Ben Clemens 11:09 AM
Like, watch old videos. The things that umpires count as swings change over time. That's fine! The strike zone changes over time too. But I'm really annoyed by anyone who thinks that the way it is, right now, is just so blindingly and obviously right that talking about change is for dummies
Ben Clemens 11:10 AM
I'll just say that it wouldn't be the worst thing if a little sensor in the 1B or HP ump's ear beeped on swings that exceeded the threshold.
Ben Clemens 11:11 AM
would require testing. don't do this next year. but it's okay to think that check swings are annoyingly over-judgment calls. I give you permission to think that.
David Wiers 11:11 AM
How many regular season games will we have next year? Set the O/U at say, 119.5?
Ben Clemens 11:11 AM
Over!
Ben Clemens 11:11 AM
i mean, I do not think an over/under is the right way to do this. I think I'd probably lift 161.5.
Ben Clemens 11:12 AM
Losing games is a tail scenario. Both sides are trying to avoid it. The odds of missing games, to me, have to be below 50%
Ben Clemens 11:12 AM
and then, if we miss games, I mean, I have no idea.
Ben Clemens 11:13 AM
so I think I'd just say we're -500 (~83%) to have a full 162-game regular season. maybe 90%?
jonmberra 11:13 AM
If World Series teams could pick one player to take for another playoff team, how high does Gavin Williams go? Both these teams could use another great starter.
Ben Clemens 11:13 AM
I mean, I do think he'd go fairly high. But I wouldn't take him over Skubal, Yamamoto, or Sale
Ben Clemens 11:14 AM
Pitchers would all go very high. Williams would go high among those pitchers. But I would probably lean on the guys with demonstrated long track records of dominance who are also pitching well right now
clemlibby 11:15 AM
Not a question, but hi Ben!
Ben Clemens 11:15 AM
hi mom!
SPArn 11:15 AM
"Bauers came back for the health insurance" is this year's "Kershaw and Stafford went to the same high school" I regret to inform
Ben Clemens 11:15 AM
Boy, you aren't kidding. I guess I'm happy that it shows the populist anger sweeping the country right now
Ben Clemens 11:16 AM
the fact that this resonates means that people get the feeling of needing to stick something out or make some decision you wouldn't normally make b/c you need insurance
Ben Clemens 11:16 AM
but yeah, we get it. good story. there are other cool stories too. let's hear those.
StuShea 11:16 AM
Ben, thanks for chatting. If you're the White Sox, what do you do with Antonacci? Baseball rat, sparkplug, but poor defense…and is being hit by pitches a sustainable skill?
Ben Clemens 11:16 AM
so, I do think that being hit by pitches is a sustainable skill
Ben Clemens 11:17 AM
One example might be that Antonacci got hit 35 (!) times in the minors in 2025
Ben Clemens 11:17 AM
but yeah, he clearly behaves in a way designed to increase his odds of getting hit, and that does help his OBP. I wonder if it might not help him stay on the field as much as is optimal long-term, but that's a question for hte future, I see how his scrappiness and basically taking a general view of maxing out every edge has helped him succeed
Ben Clemens 11:19 AM
I think he's going to get more acceptable at defense. It's not like he's a complete plodder out there. He didn't play outfield in the minors, let's give him a winter of working on it before we say he's just a DH
Ben Clemens 11:19 AM
what I would do with Antonacci is make him my everyday left fielder, tell him that playing good solid hard-working defense is yet another skill that will keep him on the field, and let him loose
Ben Clemens 11:20 AM
big fan of his, I would like to bet on him figuring out defense at an easy position. And the bat plays.
bosoxforlife 11:20 AM
What issue might be the most difficult for the two sides to come together on or is it really just cap and floor?
Ben Clemens 11:20 AM
well 'counting what baseball revenue is' is probably the real central sticking point
Ben Clemens 11:20 AM
if you say cap floor but also say that player salaries are going up 22% next year, well, do you actually think they're going to say no?
Ben Clemens 11:22 AM
I'm not really sure how this is going to work. To me there are some clear points of agreement, largely around TV revenue redistribution. And then a lot of the differences past that are window dressing. Both sides are proposing cap/floor systems, just soft vs hard. And the reason that the hard cap is such an anathema to the union is partially their ideological opposition, but it's also partially that they (correctly, imo) don't think the owners would play fair in the revenue department.
Ben Clemens 11:22 AM
That's, like, blindingly obvious. They don't play fair in the revenue department. They all pretend they're losing money using accounting tricks, it is what it is. That's business.
Ben Clemens 11:23 AM
the players aren't some noble group looking out for hte fans, to be clear. Don't get that mixed up. To a first approximation, both sides are in favor of shearing the sheep for as much wool as possible. The disagreement is over who gets the sweaters.
didace 11:23 AM
While we're fixing how check swings are called (I am 100% behind making enforcement better for the batter), can we do something about how pick-off throws to first by left handed pitchers are almost always balks? (No particular WS play in mind, it just irritates me.)
Ben Clemens 11:23 AM
Oh, please no. I would be in favor of just abolishing the balk, personally.
Ben Clemens 11:24 AM
keep the step-off rules if you want, fine. but ugh, i do not want more judgment calls going to review on stuff that is a relatively minor part of the game. and you just know that every single playoff pickoff through would get challenged for a balk if you could. they give them two challenges, managers are ITCHING to use them
blackswan34 11:24 AM
Players with >5 bWAR & 30+ homer seasons at 31 or older: Nolan Arenado, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Aaron Judge…… and Brandon Lowe.
Ben Clemens 11:25 AM
So, Lowe is a free agent this winter. I just put together the top 50 to get started on blurbs and contract projections and stuff. I had a REALLY hard time putting him in the right spot.
Ben Clemens 11:26 AM
Lowe or Clay Holmes? I dunno! Lowe or Jazz? Closer than you might think. Lowe or Gleyber Torres? …. well, Lowe, actually, I didn't have that one THAT close
toshi 11:26 AM
When the FO says the team had "accountability problems", what does it really mean? Players did not get punished for sloppy plays?
Ben Clemens 11:26 AM
I think the thing it means most is 'we lost more games than expected this year'
Ben Clemens 11:27 AM
but yeah, something along the lines of the clubhouse not having a virtuous cycle kind of culture where people try to improve and correct mistakes, either b/c they fear punishment or b/c they want to help out their friends
Ben Clemens 11:27 AM
I don't think it has to be about punishment. I feel like the Rays are a great example of a very accountable team where it seems like they're doing it b/c they don't want to let the team down. I think it's more about people being willing to buy in for the collective improvement, and there are a ton of different ways to achieve that buyin
SPArn 11:28 AM
Did you catch the slick Pratt play on the Chandler Simpson ground ball in Game 2? Making the difficult routine, not just Taylor Walls!
Ben Clemens 11:28 AM
Pratt is a maddening defender to watch b/c he goofs easy plays but also is clearly very skilled
Ben Clemens 11:29 AM
sometimes he makes plays that I didn't think he could, and doesn't even make them look hard. and then yeah, he'll get in his head and chuck one in the dugout
Ben Clemens 11:29 AM
Chandler Simpson, too. Gold Glove finalist who I voted for 2nd in LF in fielding bible. He makes many of his catches look preposterously easy b/c he is so fast. and hten he drops gimmes
SPArn 11:31 AM
If you had your pick of any reliever in baseball, in the form we most recently saw them, how many are you taking over Aaron Ashby right now? Is the answer… zero?
Ben Clemens 11:31 AM
Maybe this is cheating, but I think I'd take Aroldis Chapman. He struck out 100% of the batters he faced this postseason
Ben Clemens 11:32 AM
Yeah Ashby is rolling. I might still take Mason Miller just b/c I like betting on longer-term talent too, but obviously relievers and pitchers in general can get hot or cold, be on a roll, etc. And Ashby is on some kind of roll right now.
Ben Clemens 11:32 AM
I'm working on an article for tomorrow about what pockets of hitters in the TBR lineup he's facing. That's the kind of stuff I'd be worried about if I were the Brewers, or at least if I were teh guy on the Brewers who is paid to worry about what might go wrong.
hamiltonthebabeporter 11:32 AM
If/when the league expands to 32 teams, do you think it's likely that they also add 4 MiLB teams for each of those teams or do you think this means they restructure the entire MiLB system? Do away with low-A or complex leagues? And if they add 9 MiLB teams, where should they put them? Tons of states out west that have nothing. Put a team in Cheyenne!
Ben Clemens 11:33 AM
Two immediate thoughts came to mind on me for this. First, Meg and I actually wrote a cool article about this back in 2021:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/redrawing-the-milb-map-visualizi…
Ben Clemens 11:34 AM
The interior northwest and Appalachia got hit pretty hard in the previous round of affiliated ball shrinking
Ben Clemens 11:34 AM
I think that most likely those teams would need MiLB affiliates, redoing the affiliate system seems very fraught to me. but there are options, b/c there used to be many more minor league teams
Ben Clemens 11:35 AM
Second, my cousin used to run (help run? run the business of?) the Casper Cutthroats, a summer wood bat league team in Wyoming. I went to a game and it was charmingly low-budget and fun
Ben Clemens 11:35 AM
put a team in Cheyenne, indeed
HappyFunBall 11:37 AM
"accountability problems" just means that the (field) manager did something differently from how the FO wanted. It's a fun buzzword because it appeals to the frustrated fan who thinks the players don't care as much as they do, but it doesn't actually mean anything.
Ben Clemens 11:37 AM
Yeah, that's another interpretation. I think I generally agree that it's used as a post hoc justification, though, and doesn't mean much.
Ben Clemens 11:37 AM
if you have a team that really does have an accountability problem, that sounds suboptimal. But I'm guessing that accountability is hard to define and that 'well this didn't work out like I hoped' is the main way people decide whether tehre was an accountability problem.
drplantwrench 11:38 AM
if the rays lose, what off season move do you think they should focus on? and same for the brewers
Ben Clemens 11:39 AM
I think that the Rays, win or lose, should be focused on assembling a rotation for next year first, and on hunting for bargains who can bulk up their depth at 2b and RF second
Ben Clemens 11:41 AM
Martinez and Peralta are both FA's. Rasmussen is an FA after next year. If I'm them, I have already been trying to figure out which minor leaguers and whatnot are options for the next few years' core rotation, but I'm also hunting for some offseason pitching bargains who I think can give me a lot of acceptable innings. The Steven Matz/Nick Martinez role, essentially.
Ben Clemens 11:42 AM
but really, if I'm the Rays, I want to keep Rays-ing. Their model is working pretty well. I'd keep doing it – and I'm pretty sure that one of the key parts of the model is to keep the pipeline of solid contributors flowing.
Ben Clemens 11:42 AM
As for the Brewers, I think that I'd be interested in going outside the org for another starter if a good opportunity presented itself. and honestly, I think they might be interested in retaining Jake bauers
Ben Clemens 11:43 AM
Oh yeah: I can't remember who was mentioning this all summer, but some commenter was very insistent that Bauers was going to draw a QO, and I was fairly dismissive/skeptical. But a mea culpa is in order. The longer I looked at my free agency rankings the higher I slid Bauers, and yeah, even though it feels a little weird, he's going to be one of the top free agents this winter
Ben Clemens 11:43 AM
Don't get too caught up in the past is my advice here
SPArn 11:43 AM
Who's been your favorite player of the World Series so far? I think I go William Contreras. He's such a showman. He's on his way to challenging 25% of called strikes. He winked after he caught a pop up. The stacking bricks celebration. And he hits the ball hard as hell, throws it strong. Just a fun baseball player
Ben Clemens 11:45 AM
Yeah, Contreras is very fun to watch. I really enjoy Victor Mesa Jr. too. I like watching a lot of players on both teams. Really enjoyable vibes world series for me, in addition to being a really enjoyable series
InsertWittyNameHere 11:46 AM
Hypothetical: lockout drags on, cities of MLB teams decided to create their own league and literally recreate MLB, with slight changes to bypass IP law. How quickly do you think they could get revenue to like say ~80% of where it is today?
Ben Clemens 11:48 AM
I think this would take a very long time.
Ben Clemens 11:48 AM
The laundry matters. The built-up relationship with the team matters. The history matters. I don't think that you can quickly fix that. Now, if you were saying 15%? Probalby quickly. But 80% is a lot.
viceroy 11:49 AM
What would it take to get relegation to mlb. &Think it would be so fun and even if it introduces variance in owner’s finances, I think it raises their ceiling
Ben Clemens 11:49 AM
Um, it won't happen
Ben Clemens 11:49 AM
I don't see how it could raise the owner's ceilings, either, to be honest. Like, they certainly won't see it that way.
Ben

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ben-clemens-fangraphs-chat-10-26-26/

#benclemens #game #worldseries #baker #like #cash #kevincash

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Arizona Fall League Midseason Check-In Kyle Ross-Imagn Images The ...

2026-10-26T19:29:55Z

Arizona Fall League Midseason Check-In

Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
The 2026 Arizona Fall League is three weeks old and I’ve now seen every team at least a handful of times. This means I’ve got a handle on a good bit of the league and also can start to identify what gaps I need to fill in during the second half of the slate.
I’ve updated the Fall League tab over on The Board to reflect what Brendan Gawlowski (during his week here in Phoenix) and I have assessed, using the “Trend” column to draw your focus to whose stock we think is moving (with the up or down arrows), who has popped onto our radar for the first time (with the “New” label), and who I still need to see more of (with the target) to feel comfortable assessing. We have not changed anyone’s FV grade because three weeks of looks is only a slice of the evaluation pie and our thoughts might yet change, though we have given interim grades to the “New” players.
Below I’m going to take you through my thoughts on the most notable names and movers from the six-team league. I’m writing as if you already know a bit about each player’s trajectory and background. If you don’t, go to The Board and read their full scouting report, as they tend to provide the 360-degree view of the player’s career.
Ascending, Star-Caliber Prospects
Sebastian Walcott, SS, Texas Rangers
Dax Kilby, SS, New York Yankees
Both Walcott (internal brace elbow surgery) and Kilby (hamstring) spent a big portion of the season rehabbing from serious injuries. They look like the two best players in Arizona by a wide margin. Walcott stands head and shoulders (often literally) above everyone else in terms of his physical prowess. He has consistently shown all-fields power and has been passable in his return to playing defense at shortstop. That Walcott has a chance to debut as a shortstop, at his size, is remarkable. But players this big tend to move to the outfield, à la Oneil Cruz, and Walcott has begun to work out there a bit during pre-game drill, though he hasn’t yet played on the grass in a game. You can make an argument that Walcott is the best prospect in baseball; he’s going to have plus-plus power, hit enough to get to most of that power, and has a shot to play shortstop into his mid-20s. Brewers shortstop Jesús Made has a more stable contact profile, but Walcott has more power and, even though he’s a bit older than Made, he also has more room left on his frame for added strength. This is a player who could be a 30-homer shortstop at ages 23-25, and then a 40-homer outfielder at age 30.
Kilby is the best pure hitter in the Fall League. His hands just seem to be in the right place a lot of the time, and he can adjust the posture of his upper body to help get the barrel where it needs to go. He peppers both gaps with a lot of hard contact and he still has room for more mass. Defensively, Kilby doesn’t look like a viable shortstop. You could argue this has at least something to do with him returning to action after a serious hamstring issue, but I’ve had Kilby projected to move to the outfield since he was in high school, and the way he looks at shortstop now has just reinforced my priors. He’s still a really exciting prospect, and I think he’s going to hit enough that it won’t matter very much where he plays. Walcott will likely be a top 2-5 prospect for us, and Kilby will probably be top 20.
Super Talented, Considerably Flawed
Jarlin Susana, RHP, Washington Nationals
Bryce Rainer, SS, Detroit Tigers
Susana is sitting 99-102 and routinely bends in a plus-plus curveball. He also can’t throw strikes, and his fastball doesn’t move enough to forgive poor location, even at elite velocity. He has looked like a reliever to me, but I don’t really care to move Susana down because I think elite relievers like the one he’ll be deserve to have top 25-ish placement on the universal prospect list, anyway. If I had known Josh Hader or Edwin Díaz would go on to have the careers they did, they would have been top 15 prospects. Susana is looking at an outcome in the Jhoan Duran realm.
Rainer’s swing is longer and crazier than You Can See Everything. He has a huge arm bar and it takes forever for his bat to enter the hitting zone. He also has some of the best lefty bat speed I’ve ever seen, and his best swings are like watching a lefty-hitting Ronald Acuña Jr. Rainer has already become quite barrel-chested and he isn’t especially range-y on defense, but he has a ridiculous arm that makes up for his other little deficiencies. Same as Susana: I’m not inclined to move where we have Rainer graded. He’s so talented that I’m happy to accept the risk that he won’t hit and am valuing him as a top 25-ish prospect because he has 35-homer upside if he does. If he shows up for camp in February and his physique has continued to trend bulky, I’ll become more apprehensive about this working out.
Good Prospects Reinforcing Strong Pre-existing Evals
Zyhir Hope, OF, Detroit Tigers
Arjun Nimmala, SS, Los Angeles Angels
Eduardo Quintero, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Tate Southisene, SS, Atlanta Braves
Caleb Bonemer, OF, Chicago White Sox
These guys are already graded as future everyday players and, based on how they have looked, there’s no reason to change that. Bonemer entered the AFL season as the one of this group I was worried I’d come away feeling more skeptical about because of how much whiffing he did during the regular season. Instead, I think his power is weaponized by sufficient barrel feel. He is likely to be a left field-only defender in the big leagues, but he could have output similar to Teoscar Hernández. Southisense and Quintero feel, to me, like the ones with the best chance of outgrowing the 50-FV tier between now and when they debut. They simply have better tools than the other power-centric hitters here, especially Southisene.
Arrow Up Potential Stars
Nathan Flewelling, C, Tampa Bays Rays
Charles Davalan, 2B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Zion Rose, OF, Kansas City Royals
Tai Peete, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
I was apprehensive about stuffing Flewelling during the last list cycle because both his defense and hit tool are 30s on the scale right now. His defense is still a significant issue, but he’s a 19-year-old Canadian kid, so of course it is. Flewelling has such rare lefty power and athleticism (he’s an above-average runner once he gets moving and is such a smooth, graceful mover) that he could profile as an everyday corner outfielder if it comes to that, though I don’t think it will. Davalan is revisiting second base, where he played as a freshman at Florida Gulf Coast, and it’s going well. A long in-person look has also made me confident that he has meaningful juice despite being such a little guy. He’s going to be an everyday player, even if that means playing a mix of second base and left field the way Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernández would in concert with Max Muncy. Zion Rose looks the part of a solid 2-WAR player. His hands are twitchy, he’s fast, and he’s in incredible shape. I’d like to see what he looks like in center field because I think he runs well enough to try it, but he’s only played left so far. Peete may not quite be ready for the 50-FV tier, but he’s close. He’s running really well, looks fine in center field, and his strikeouts have stabilized after they looked like they might be his undoing early in his career.
The Best of the New Names
Joey Dixon, RHP, Houston Astros
Sam Horn, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Maddox Long, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Joe Ariola, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Dixon missed multiple years recovering from Tommy John surgery and then most of 2026 dealing with a shoulder issue, and even when he pitched he wasn’t 100%. His velo is back and I’ve seen him parked at 94-97 while flashing bat-missing sliders and changeups. He’s smaller than most starters and his injury history points to the bullpen, but potentially as a multi-inning, platoon-neutral weapon. He’s getting added to The Board with a 40+ FV, the grade of a good bullpen’s third- or fourth-best guy. Sam Horn was a college quarterback at Missouri who missed time because of an elbow surgery and a fractured tibia. He rehabbed throughout 2026 and was active during Bridge League/Instructs, but I didn’t see him then because on the one day I knew he’d be pitching, Jackson Flora was making his uniformed debut for the Giants. In the AFL, Horn has been 93-96 with a plus slider and changeup. It’s a great starting point for someone who hasn’t pitched consistently since high school.
Long and Ariola look like standard middle relievers who could be ready fast. Long was at three different colleges across five seasons, then Indy ball. He’s 6-foot-5, 290 pounds, has a really loose delivery, a heavy low-90s sinker, and a plus slider that he commands with uncommon consistency. Ariola has a riding 93-94 mph fastball and hammer curveball, pretty standard lefty fare in the Caleb Thielbar mold.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/arizona-fall-league-midseason-check-in/

#fallleague #arizonafall #walcott #kilby #newyork #sebastianwalcott #brendangawlowski #board

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There Is No Defending Some of the Defense We Saw in Game 2 of the ...

2026-10-25T18:58:40Z

There Is No Defending Some of the Defense We Saw in Game 2 of the World Series

Playing professional baseball is so hard, and requires so much preternatural ability, that it borders on impossible for the civilian mind to comprehend. Hitting a 90 mile an hour pitch — let alone the 100 mph ones warping the fabric of the sport — requires a combination of hand-eye coordination, anticipation, and kinetic movement that most people straight up cannot attain. Whereas with other…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/there-is-no-defending-some-of-the-defense-we-saw-in-game-2-of-the-world-series/

#worldseries #game #defense #hitting

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The Brewers, the Rays, and the Pumping of Tires MILWAUKEE — You ...

2026-10-25T18:24:34Z

The Brewers, the Rays, and the Pumping of Tires

MILWAUKEE — You all know the theoretical concept of a replacement-level player. I suspect I’m not the only one who associates that concept with a specific person: The guy who’s continuously mediocre despite repeated exposure to big league competition. The longer he sticks around, the more chances he gets, the more I catch myself thinking, “Why? Can’t they at least try to find someone better?”
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-brewers-the-rays-and-the-pumping-of-tires/

#brewers #rays #tires #milwaukee

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Sunday Notes: Adam Ottavino Faced Paul Goldschmidt 32 times Adam ...

2026-10-25T12:06:29Z

Sunday Notes: Adam Ottavino Faced Paul Goldschmidt 32 times

Adam Ottavino matched up against Paul Goldschmidt more often than he did any other hitter. The now-retired right-hander faced the still-active slugger 32 times, surrendering six hits — including three home runs — and issuing half a dozen walks. He set him down on strikes 13 times.
What does Ottavino most remember about his battles with Goldschmidt, who over 16 seasons has logged 905 extra-base hits, a 135 wRC+, and 58.8 WAR in what is arguably a Hall of Fame-worthy career?
“He was usually the best player on his team, and because of my righty-matchup ability I faced him a lot,” said Ottavino, who has smoothly segued from data-savvy reliever to insightful broadcast analyst. “At the beginning it was as many sliders as I could throw, but then he kind of figured out that the best approach against me was to not try to pull the ball. If you look at his three home runs, they were all to the opposite field. I realized that I had to switch up from only staying on the outside corner and start coming inside a little bit.
“When I developed the cutter, I used it a lot in mid-counts, because I knew he wasn’t hunting that pitch,” Ottavino went on to say.” It became a lot more cat-and-mouse over time. I mean, it was never a comfortable matchup. He had a really good approach, and I felt like he was very calculated coming to each at-bat. Sometimes I was able to stay a step ahead, and sometimes not.”
As for the baker’s dozen strikeouts, the Northeastern University product recalls the majority of them coming on takes, mostly in their later matchups. When he sensed that Goldschmidt was looking slider on a two-strike count, and thus “open for a freeze,” he would throw a backdoor sinker.
A memorable punch out came on a swing-and-miss.
“I remember striking him out in a high-leverage spot when he was on the Cardinals and I was with the Mets,” said Ottavino, who took the mound for five teams across the 2010-2025 seasons. “I was closing a game in St. Louis and beat him with a four-seam fastball up that he wasn’t looking for. I had thrown him a sinker earlier in the at-bat, and the four started in that same lane, but instead of being a sinker it stayed true. He ended up chasing it. I was getting pretty close to blowing that game, and fortunately was able to dial up a strikeout.”
Another four-seam yielded a far different result.
“It was the first pitch I threw in an outing,” Ottavino recalled. “This is when he was with Arizona and I was with Colorado. I thought I could sneak that first pitch in there, but that wasn’t the case. He ambushed me for a homer.
“It was a four-seam fastball,” Ottavino elaborated. “I tried to hold back my best two pitches, my sinker and slider, and get ahead with a pitch that I didn’t want him to swing at. Again, I was thinking he would take. I misread the situation and his swing swung the game. I remember feeling, ‘Man, I miscalculated that one pretty bad.”
———
RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS
Kevin Cash went 2 for 8 against Matt Garza.
Ozzie Timmons went 2 for 2 against Roy Halladay.
Chad Mottola went 2 for 3 against Tom Glavine.
Carl Crawford went 2 for 4 against Kyle Snyder.
Corey Dickerson went 2 for 7 against David Price.
———
Joe Ariola went unmentioned when our 2026 Arizona Diamondbacks Top Prospects list was published prior to the season. There is a pretty good chance you will be hearing about him in 2027. A 22-year-old left-hander who was drafted 213th overall in 2025 out of Wake Forest University, Ariola debuted professionally this summer to the tune of a 1.56 ERA and a 45.7% strikeout rate over 34.2 innings across multiple levels. No pitcher who tossed more than 15 frames fanned a higher percentage of batters.
I asked Ariola about his outlandish strikeout rate, which was accompanied by a 10.0% walk rate, at the onset of the Arizona Fall League season.
“I kind of just had a simple approach that I needed to fill up the zone,” reasoned Ariola, who has registered six Ks over five innings with the Salt River Rafters. “That was step one. If you get yourself in good counts, you’re in good positions to get outs. It just resulted in strikeouts. I didn’t put too much thought into it, but yeah… I mean, it’s a good number, but I wasn’t overly focused on that”
Ariola’s best pitch is his curveball — “I get a lot of whiffs with it” — while his other primary offering is a four-seam fastball. Rounding out his repertoire are a splitter, which he learned this past season, and a a slider.
His track record makes his breakout especially intriguing. Ariola threw just 51 collegiate innings, registering a 5.47 ERA with 42 walks and 75 strikeouts. While the Ks stood out, his other numbers were nothing to write home about. Why was he so much better this year than he’d been as a Demon Deacon?
“It’s a different environment,” said the Long Island native, whose final two regular season appearances came with Double-A Amarillo. “It’s different people, different priorities, a different space for sure. In college, you need to win immediately — it’s a little bit less on the development side — and here it’s they want to develop you, because they want to win in the big leagues. The past year has been eye-opening. I’ve learned a lot of things [and] feel that I got better.”
It’s hard to argue with a 45.7% strikeout rate. Ariola clearly got better, and now it’s a matter of what comes next. Lefty relievers who miss bats are valuable assets, which is why he is no longer flying well below prospect radar.
———
A quiz:
Aaron Judge has the most home runs (382) over the past 10 seasons, while Freddie Freeman has the most doubles (373), and Corbin Carroll the most triples (60). Which player has recorded the most singles? (A hint: he has the second highest hit total.)
The answer can be found below.
———
NEWS NOTES
Todd Benzinger, a first baseman/outfielder who played for five teams — most notably the Boston Red Sox and Cincinnati Reds — from 1987-1995, died earlier this week at age 63. A member of Cincinnati’s 1990 World Series-championship team, the switch-hitter is probably best known in Boston for a 10th-inning, three-run walk-off homer he hit during 1988’s “Morgan Magic” surge that saw the Red Sox win 19 of 20 games and capture an AL East title.
Mike Edwards, an infielder who played in seven games for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 1977, and in 310 games for the Oakland Athletics from 1978-1980, died on September 22 at age 74 (per Baseball Player Passings). The Fort Lewis, Washington native batted .250 for his career, with two of his 220 hits leaving the yard. Fergie Jenkins and Jim Slaton were the pitchers he took deep.
———
The answer to the quiz is Trea Turner, with 1,045 singles.
———
Nick Franklin never quite lived up to expectations. An infielder whom Seattle selected in the first round of the 2009 draft, he ultimately saw action in just 301 MLB games, the bulk of them with the Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays. When his playing days came to end in 2022, the final three seasons had been in in indie ball.
He is now being entrusted to help aspiring big-leaguers get better. Last winter, the Detroit Tigers hired him as a bench coach for their Double-A affiliate, the Erie SeaWolves.
Franklin is currently with the Scottsdale Scorpions, tutoring prospects in the Arizona Fall League. I caught up to him prior to a recent game to learn how he’d hooked on with the Tigers organization.
“With the winter meetings going on, I got put in touch with Travis Chapman, who is our field coordinator with Detroit,” Franklin told me. “We had a conversation, and ended up setting up an interview. It went from there.
“I believe they had a couple of spots to fill, with Double-A being one of them, to be a development coach, or potentially a fourth coach,” added Franklin. “With all the interviews they had, they didn’t know exactly where they were going to go, or who they were going to choose. I just stayed through the interview process. I spoke with [director of player development] Shane Farrell and infield coordinator Mike Rammazzotti. Right around January, they hired me.”
How would the 35-year-old assess his first year as a coach at the professional level?
“I think it went pretty well,” opined Franklin, who primarily worked with infielders, outfielders, and on base running. “The goal is obviously to help guys get to the big leagues, so to get a couple of them [Brett Callahan, John Peck, and Andrew Sears] there this year was a success. I’m looking forward to doing it again.”
———
Peter Gammons’s new book, It’s All About the Players includes the story of how Barry Zito ended up with the Oakland Athletics and not the Texas Rangers. As Gammons explains, the Rangers took the southpaw in the third round of the 1998 draft, but then weren’t willing to “fork over the $300,000 necessary to sign him.” Zito returned to college and was subsequently drafted ninth-overall by the A’s in 1999.
Gammons recalled having this exchange with a Rangers cross-checker during the summer of 1998:
“We don’t give a guy who throws ninety to ninety-one [mph] three hundred thousand dollars.”
“Nobody hits his fastball, curveball, or changeup. He leads the [Cape Cod] league in strikeouts and earned run average. Isn’t that what pitching is about?”
“Ninety to ninety-one.”
Four years later, Zito won the AL Cy Young award after going 23-5 with a 2.75 ERA. Over eight seasons with the A’s, he went 17-5 against the team that felt he didn’t throw hard enough.
———
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
The Kia Tigers and Samsung Tigers are set to begin a five-game series to determine who will face the KT Wiz, who earned a bye to the finals, in the Korea Series. Kia advanced by ousting the LG Twins, a matchup that included (per Yonhap News Agency’s Jee-ho Yoo) Keisho Shirakawa becoming first Japanese pitcher to win a KBO postseason game.
The best-of-seven Japan Series got underway yesterday with the defending champion Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks edging past the Yokohama DeNA BayStars 3-1 in 11 innings. Yudai Shoji doubled home the deciding run.
The Yomiuri Giants have hired Hideki Matsui as their new manager. The 52-year-old former MLB and NPB outfielder starred for the Tokyo-based team from 1993-2002 before coming stateside to play for the New York Yankees.
The NPB draft took place Thursday in Tokyo, with Shoki Oda’s first-round selection by the Yomiuri Giants coming as a surprise — the highly-touted 18-year-old right-hander recently announced that he plans to either sign with an MLB organization or play collegiately in the United States. Yuri Karasaw discussed Yomiuri’s decision, and other notable draft picks, for World Baseball Network.
———
Left on the cutting room floor from Tuesday’s feature with Caleb Bonemer was his response to a not-so-serious question I’d begun our AFL media day conversation with: What was the best question they asked you?
“Gosh, there were a lot of them,” replied the Chicago White Sox prospect, who’d just been interviewed by our friends at MLB Pipeline. “I guess it would probably be ‘Who are the top three hitters in the Fall League that are underrated?’”
And those would be…?
“I pretty much just named a few of my buddies,” Bonemer admitted with a smile.
———
Which TV broadcast duo — Joe Davis and John Smoltz, or Brian Anderson and Ron Darling — would you prefer for the World Series? I asked that question on social media a few days ago — in poll format — and while the sample size was small, the margin of victory was anything but. A whopping 89.7% of the votes went to Anderson/Darling. Make of that what you will.
———
A random obscure former player snapshot:
Willie Mueller made a lone appearance for the first Milwaukee Brewers team to reach the postseason. A right-hander from West Bend, Wisconsin, Mueller toed the rubber on September 20, 1981 and tossed a pair of relief innings in an 8-2 loss to the Orioles at Baltimore’s Memorial Stadium. The Brewers went on to finish the strike-shortened season with a record of 63-47, then fell to the New York Yankees in the ALDS.
All told, Mueller’s MLB career comprised six games and 14-and-two-thirds frames. In 1978, he took the mound for Milwaukee five times, earning a win over the Cleveland Indians in his second-ever appearance. His big-league debut had come at Fenway Park, the highlight being a strikeout of Butch Hobson, the first batter he faced. Another highlight came a decade later. Mueller was cast as “Duke,” in the movie Major League. Per his SABR BioProject bio, Mueller was recommended for the role by his former Brewers teammate Pete Vuckovich, who named him when the film’s director asked if he knew someone who was big, kind of ugly, and could throw the ball.
———
LINKS YOU’LL LIKE
Sportsnet Canada’s Ben Nicholson-Smith talked to a number of Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays players about their childhood rooting interests and World Series-watching memories.
CBS Sports’s Dayn Perry takes us to school with MLB Lockout 101: An in-depth guide to the likely work stoppage and what it means for free agency, the 2027 season, and more.
Does MLB have a competitive balance problem? The Athletic’s Eno Sarris and Evan Drellich ran the numbers to find out.
The Minnesota Twins hired Brian Reith as their new pitching coach earlier this month. Cody Schoemann wrote about Pete Maki’s replacement at Twins Daily.
At Grinnell.edu, Adam Sodders wrote about how Baseball-Reference founder Sean Foreman went from small-town Iowa to the sports data big leagues.
———
RANDOM FACTS AND STATS
Cincinnati Reds pitchers issued 26 walks with the bases loaded this season, the most of any team. Per The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans, the unwanted single-season record belongs to the 1999 Seattle Mariners, who walked home 28 runs.
CJ Abrams and Miguel Vargas each hit 33 home runs this season. Abrams scored 93 runs and drove in 106 runs. Vargas scored 106 runs and drove in 93 runs.
Bob Uecker started 217 games behind the plate over the course of his six-year career. The opposing pitcher in the first and last of those contests were Juan Marichal and Bob Gibson.
On today’s date in 1977, the Milwaukee Brewers sent Gorman Thomas to the Texas Rangers as the PTBNL in August deal for Ed Kirkpatrick. The Brewers then reacquired Thomas for cash in February 1978, with “Stormin’ Gorman” going on to slug 175 home runs over the next five seasons.
The Minnesota Twins won the World Series on today’s date in 1987, beating the St. Louis Cardinals 4-2 in a deciding Game 7. Frank Viola went eight innings for the win, while Jeff Reardon hurled a one-two-three ninth for the save.
The Chicago Cubs traded Fergie Jenkins to the Texas Rangers in exchange for Bill Madlock and Vic Harris on today’s date in 1973. Jenkins, who had won 20 or more games for the Cubs in six of the previous seven seasons, went 25-12 in his first year as a Ranger. Madlock won NL batting titles with the Cubs in 1975 and 1976 before being dealt to the San Francisco Giants as part of a five-player swap that also included Bobby Murcer.
Players born on today’s date include Tony Torcato, an outfielder who batted .298 while appearing in 43 games for the San Francisco Giants across the 2002-2005 seasons. Drafted 19th overall in 1998 — Cleveland subsequently selected CC Sabathia with the 20th pick — Torcato recorded eight of his 14 MLB hits against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Also born on today’s date was Joe Siddall, a native of Windsor, Ontario who caught for three teams — the Montreal Expos, Florida Marlins, and Detroit Tigers — over parts of the 1993-1998 seasons. Now a broadcast analyst for the Toronto Blue Jays, Siddall swatted his lone big-league dinger off of Seattle Mariners southpaw Jeff Fassero in a game played at Tiger Stadium.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-adam-ottavino-faced-paul-goldschmidt-32-times/

#paulgoldschmidt #adamottavino #times

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Small Is the Man Who Leads to Sal-Vation MILWAUKEE — In the ...

2026-10-25T08:10:19Z

Small Is the Man Who Leads to Sal-Vation

MILWAUKEE — In the bottom of the sixth inning of Game 2 of the World Series, Brewers right fielder Sal Frelick dug in against Rays reliever Ian Seymour. Seymour’s first pitch, a sinker, landed right in the middle of the zone for a called strike one. The Brewers had trailed 4-0 in this game before they’d even come to the plate, but they’d been in this position before. In Game 4 of the NLCS…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/small-is-the-man-who-leads-to-sal-vation/

#worldseries #salfrelick #ianseymour #game #brewers #milwaukee #rays #nlcs

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Pratt Rise: Unlikely Hero Gives Brewers 2-0 Series Lead Most of ...

2026-10-25T07:02:09Z

Pratt Rise: Unlikely Hero Gives Brewers 2-0 Series Lead

Most of the time, life isn’t a storybook. The problem in Act One isn’t tied up with a bow in Act Three. Yesterday’s villain doesn’t always become today’s hero; in fact, they frequently stay today’s villain. But the baseball gods must have been hankering for a redemption arc Saturday night. Cooper Pratt was the scapegoat for an early Tampa Bay rally in Game 2, and then the hero for a late…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pratt-rise-unlikely-hero-gives-brewers-2-0-series-lead/

#hero #actthree #tampabay #cooperpratt #game

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Members-Only Game Thread: World Series – Oct 24, 2026 Welcome ...

2026-10-25T02:30:51Z

Members-Only Game Thread: World Series – Oct 24, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the World Series game today. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/members-only-game-thread-world-series-oct-24-2026/

#worldseries #gamethread #opengame #staff #fangraphsstaff #please

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Effectively Wild Episode 2548: Bullpen Blame This is a free ...

2026-10-24T16:15:05Z

Effectively Wild Episode 2548: Bullpen Blame

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, please visit our Patreon.
Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and Ben Clemens banter about World Series roster and rotation decisions, the Fall Classic through a “styles make fights” lens, whether travel days are really rest days, and more. Then (31:50) Ben C. delivers a guest Stat Blast about whether bullpen games are really risky because the more pitchers you use, the more likely you are to run into a reliever who “doesn’t have it” that day, and Ben L. Blasts about players who played for three playoff teams in the same season and players who played for a few World Series winners in a row without appearing in the postseason. Finally (1:02:33), Ben and Meg banter about Angels turnover, Yankees non-turnover, Shohei Ohtani’s two-way future, NPB postings, a KBO breakout, a new baseball video game and K-drama, and a Yandy Díaz nickname.
Audio intro: Andy Ellison, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Benny and a Million Shetland Ponies, “Effectively Wild Theme (Pedantic)”
Link to MLBTR on series rosters
Link to Woodruff story
Link to Cleavinger story
Link to Martinez news
Link to Rosenthal on Martinez
Link to Ben C. on starter timing
Link to Ben C. on Game 7s
Link to Yankees WC SP story
Link to Ben C.’s series preview
Link to ESPN series preview
Link to Ben L. on playoff trends
Link to Russell on “half days off”
Link to “Mathemadage” series
Link to Cooper post
Link to Ben C. on bullpen games
Link to FiveThirtyEight on hot hand
Link to Ben L. on bullpenning
Link to Sam on bullpenning
Link to Russell on “cruising” SP
Link to Curt on Brewers rings
Link to Henderson story
Link to three-peats sheet
Link to Feduccia request
Link to MLBTR on Angels GM
Link to MLBTR on Suzuki
Link to Goldman on Boone
Link to Cashman news
Link to Steinbrenner comments
Link to Attanasio comments
Link to Attanasio comments 2
Link to Xbox non-AI AI release
Link to Ohtani updates
Link to Selig first pitch
Link to Selig on EW
Link to Lyons on Hilliard
Link to Stove League wiki
Link to Stove League EW wiki
Link to Full Count announcement
Link to Call of Duty mission
Link to baseball RPG tweet
Link to Sato posting news
Link to Oda news
Link to Bartleby wiki
Link to Game 1 box score
Link to Baumann on Game 1
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Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2548-bullpen-blame/

#effectivelywild #link #ben #wildtheme #martinezlink #hilliardlink #suzukilink #wildsubreddit #worldseries #episode

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FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: October 24, 2026 If last night’s Game ...

2026-10-24T15:03:59Z

FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: October 24, 2026

If last night’s Game 1 was any indication of the action to come, we’re in for a thrilling World Series. The Brewers jumped out to an early lead and barely held on to beat the Rays, 3-2. The game had plenty of action. The first run scored on a Christian Yelich triple to center field. Jonny DeLuca laid out for it and nearly made a sensational catch. It was a fitting way for a World Series between…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-weekly-mailbag-october-24-2026/

#worldseries #christianyelich #game #rays #jonny

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The First Cut Is the Deepest: Buzzsaw Brewers Take Game 1 ...

2026-10-24T08:10:37Z

The First Cut Is the Deepest: Buzzsaw Brewers Take Game 1

MILWAUKEE — The 2026 Brewers aren’t your typical postseason buzzsaw. They’ve won with defense and relief pitching, and their eight postseason victories have come by a combined 13 runs. Half of those games ended either with a Milwaukee walk-off hit, or with the opponent’s tying run on base. Every postseason game the Brewers have played was a one-run game in the sixth or later; they haven’t scored…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-first-cut-is-the-deepest-buzzsaw-brewers-take-game-1/

#game #milwaukee #half

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Job Posting: Pittsburgh Pirates – Biomechanist Openings Direct ...

2026-10-24T05:55:42Z

Job Posting: Pittsburgh Pirates – Biomechanist Openings

Direct links to applications (please see job details below):
Applied Biomechanist – Coaching and Player Development
Applied Biomechanist – Major League
Applied Biomechanist – Coaching and Player Development
The Pirates Why
The Pittsburgh Pirates are a storied franchise in Major League Baseball who are reinventing themselves on every level. Boldly and relentlessly pursuing excellence by:
purposefully developing a player and people-centered culture;
deeply connecting with our fans, partners, and colleagues;
passionately creating lifetime memories for generations of families and friends; and
meaningfully impacting our communities and the game of baseball.
At the Pirates, we believe in the power of a diverse workforce and strive to create an inclusive culture centered in Passion, Innovation, Respect, Accountability, Teamwork, Empathy, and Service.
Job Summary
Operate the biomechanics lab and support player analysis within Coaching and Player Development (CPD) and Player Analysis Departments. This role will ensure reliable data collection, process and organize movement and performance data, and provide analysis that helps staff understand and develop players. Hitting will be the primary focus, with opportunities to support pitching and other player analysis needs. The successful candidate will bring hands-on experience with lab technology, strong attention to detail, and the ability to turn data into useful information. Working with coaches, Research and Development (R&D), and performance staff, this analyst will support daily lab operations, player assessments, and applied research.
Responsibilities:
Operate and maintain the biomechanics lab, including markerless motion capture systems, force plates, and supporting video equipment for hitting and pitching assessments.
Prepare and run lab sessions, including equipment setup, calibration, synchronization, and troubleshooting; follow consistent protocols to collect high-quality data.
Coordinate assessments with coaches, players, and performance staff; maintain clear schedules, session records, and equipment readiness.
Process, organize, and quality-check lab data; identify collection or processing issues, document limitations, and maintain reliable datasets for analysis.
Support player analysis using lab data, in-game tracking data, and video, with hitting as the primary area of focus. Examine player tendencies and performance trends to help identify development opportunities.
Contribute to research projects using lab and in-game data to better understand player movement and performance, with a primary emphasis on hitting.
Prepare clear reports and visualizations for coaches, Player Analysis, and CPD leadership; communicate findings in practical language and account for data quality, sample size, and context.
Work with coaches, R&D, and performance staff to track player progress, answer development questions, and identify useful follow-up assessments or analysis.
Maintain documented workflows and reproducible code in organizational systems; help improve the efficiency of recurring lab and reporting processes and handle player information with discretion.
Support Spring Training, camps, offseason assessments, and broader Player Analysis projects as assigned, adapting to organizational priorities while maintaining a primary focus on hitting.
Qualifications
Required:
Bachelor’s degree in biomechanics, kinesiology, engineering, sports science, a quantitative field, or a related discipline, or equivalent practical experience.
Demonstrated experience operating a motion capture lab or comparable human performance testing environment, including equipment setup, data collection, and troubleshooting.
Working knowledge of biomechanics, measurement reliability, and data quality practices for movement assessments.
Working proficiency in Python or R for data processing, analysis, and visualization, with the ability to build repeatable workflows.
Understanding of basic statistical analysis, sample size, variability, and uncertainty when interpreting performance data.
Ability to explain technical findings clearly and work effectively with coaches, analysts, and other performance staff.
Strong organization, attention to detail, and follow-through; an interest in baseball and a willingness to learn and apply analytical skills to player development.
Availability to support the baseball schedule, including nights, weekends, holidays, and travel as required by the role.
Desired:
Experience with markerless motion capture, force plates, or biomechanical analysis software such as Visual3D.
Experience analyzing baseball performance data, particularly hitting, or a demonstrated interest in developing expertise in this area.
Familiarity with SQL, Git-based version control, automated reporting, or combining data from multiple sources.
Experience supporting athlete assessments or applied research in collaboration with coaches or sports performance staff.
Our Commitment to Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DE&I) are integral to who we are as an organization. We believe that our workforce should reflect the vast diversity of the communities we serve and that diverse voices should be elevated and intentionally integrated into our work. Even if you feel as if you do not meet 100% of the qualifications, we still strongly encourage you to apply.
To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.
Applied Biomechanist – Major League
The Pirates Why
The Pittsburgh Pirates are a storied franchise in Major League Baseball who are reinventing themselves on every level. Boldly and relentlessly pursuing excellence by:
purposefully developing a player and people-centered culture;
deeply connecting with our fans, partners, and colleagues;
passionately creating lifetime memories for generations of families and friends; and
meaningfully impacting our communities and the game of baseball.
At the Pirates, we believe in the power of a diverse workforce and strive to create an inclusive culture centered in Passion, Innovation, Respect, Accountability, Teamwork, Empathy, and Service.
Job Summary
The Pittsburgh Pirates are seeking an Applied Biomechanist to work directly with our Major League team and advance how biomechanics informs player development and performance. This person will own and operate biomechanics data collection, partner with coaches and performance staff to turn data into actionable insights, and work with R&D to identify new ways biomechanics can help answer important baseball questions.
The ideal candidate combines a strong foundation in human movement and biomechanics with the ability to operate effectively in an applied baseball environment. They should be comfortable moving between technical biomechanics concepts and practical conversations with coaches and players, understanding that the value of the data comes from helping people make better decisions, not simply producing more information.
Responsibilities
Operate, calibrate, troubleshoot, and maintain motion capture and biomechanics technologies.
Manage biomechanics data collection and ensure consistent, high-quality outputs.
Partner with Major League coaches, players, performance, and medical staff to identify and answer applied biomechanics questions, incorporating other performance data where applicable.
Translate complex biomechanics information into clear, actionable insights.
Proactively identify opportunities to generate new insights and expand how biomechanics is used to improve player performance.
Collaborate with research-oriented biomechanists and others in R&D to identify high-value research questions and improve models, metrics, reports, and tools.
Qualifications
Required:
Authorized to work lawfully in the United States.
Advanced degree in biomechanics, kinesiology, engineering, exercise science, or a related field, or equivalent experience.
Demonstrated experience applying biomechanics analyses to help improve baseball performance.
Experience collecting and analyzing motion capture or other biomechanical data.
Demonstrated ability to analyze and visualize data with SQL, Python, R, or similar tools.
Demonstrated ability to explain technical concepts to coaches, players, or non-technical stakeholders.
Preferred:
We don’t expect any candidate to have done all of these things. We’re interested in people who can demonstrate several of these experiences or capabilities and who have the curiosity and ability to grow into the others:
Work experience in professional or collegiate sports, with a preference for baseball and softball.
Demonstrated experience conducting statistical or data science research; biomechanics applications are a plus.
Demonstrated ability to generate novel research ideas.
Experience coaching or working directly with athletes; baseball or softball experience is a plus.
Experience building a motion-capture lab from the ground up.
Equal Opportunity Employer
The Pittsburgh Pirates are an equal employment opportunity employer. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, disability status, protected veteran status or any other characteristic protected by law.
To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.
The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/job-posting-pittsburgh-pirates-multiple-biomechanist-openings/

#pittsburghpirates #appliedbiomechanist #player #playeranalysis #playerdevelopment #majorleague #job #leaguebaseball #hitting #analysisdepartments

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Job Posting: Pittsburgh Pirates – Multiple Openings Direct ...

2026-10-24T04:46:53Z

Job Posting: Pittsburgh Pirates – Multiple Openings

Direct links to applications (please see job details below):
Software Engineer
Product Manager – Research and Development
Analyst – Coaching and Player Development
Software Engineer
The Pirates Why
The Pittsburgh Pirates are a storied franchise in Major League Baseball who are reinventing themselves on every level. Boldly and relentlessly pursuing excellence by:
purposefully developing a player and people-centered culture;
deeply connecting with our fans, partners, and colleagues;
passionately creating lifetime memories for generations of families and friends; and
meaningfully impacting our communities and the game of baseball.
At the Pirates, we believe in the power of a diverse workforce and strive to create an inclusive culture centered in Passion, Innovation, Respect, Accountability, Teamwork, Empathy, and Service.
Job Summary
We are seeking a talented and motivated Software Engineer to join our Baseball Systems team. In this role, you will design, build, and maintain the software systems that support baseball operations and team initiatives. You will deliver full-stack features, including APIs, backend services, and frontend components, while continuing to deepen your technical expertise, system knowledge, and ownership.
You will collaborate with engineers and cross-functional stakeholders to translate requirements into effective technical solutions. Your work will help provide reliable, maintainable, and accessible tools that support analysts, coaches, front office staff, and other users across the organization. These tools directly impact decisions related to a wide variety of baseball operations like draft picks, trades, game play decisions, and player development.
Responsibilities:
Design, implement, and maintain full-stack features, including APIs, backend services, and frontend components.
Propose technical approaches and create planning documents for feature requests.
Collaborate with product managers, analysts, researchers, and other stakeholders to understand requirements and help translate them into effective technical solutions.
Write and maintain tests, documentation, and supporting materials to ensure code quality and reliability.
Participate actively in code reviews by incorporating feedback and offering thoughtful suggestions that improve implementation quality.
Troubleshoot and resolve bugs, while working to identify and address potential issues before they affect users or systems.
Share knowledge and pair with teammates to strengthen team practices and collective system understanding.
Qualifications:
Candidates need not meet every qualification listed to be considered; we welcome applications from people of diverse backgrounds who are excited about this opportunity.
Authorized to work lawfully in the United States.
Experience with Typescript/Javascript, SQL, React, NodeJS, and/or Python
Experience designing or consuming APIs and implementing user-facing application features.
Experience in testing practices, version control, code review, and maintainable software design.
Demonstrated problem-solving skills, attention to detail, and clear communication.
Ability to collaborate effectively with technical and non-technical stakeholders.
Authorized to work lawfully in the United States.
Bachelor’s degree in Computer Science, Software Engineering, or a related field, or equivalent practical experience.
Experience with cloud platforms, containerization, CI/CD, or related DevOps practices.
Experience developing internal tools, data-rich applications, and dynamic, complex data visualizations using libraries like Plotly and D3
Knowledge of baseball statistics and how technology, data, and analytics inform strategy and performance
Equal Opportunity Employer
The Pittsburgh Pirates are an equal opportunity employer. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, disability status, protected veteran status or any other characteristic protected by law.
To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.
Product Manager – Research and Development
The Pirates Why
The Pittsburgh Pirates are a storied franchise in Major League Baseball who are reinventing themselves on every level. Boldly and relentlessly pursuing excellence by:
purposefully developing a player and people-centered culture;
deeply connecting with our fans, partners, and colleagues;
passionately creating lifetime memories for generations of families and friends; and
meaningfully impacting our communities and the game of baseball.
At the Pirates, we believe in the power of a diverse workforce and strive to create an inclusive culture centered in Passion, Innovation, Respect, Accountability, Teamwork, Empathy, and Service.
Job Summary
The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking for a Product Manager to join Baseball R&D and help our teams identify and solve the most important problems for baseball decision-makers.
You will work on a cross-functional team with engineers, data scientists, analysts, biomechanists, and baseball experts. Many of our products are data- and model-driven, combining statistical or machine-learning models with software and workflows to improve decisions across areas such as player development, coaching, and Major League strategy.
You will have broad ownership and substantial autonomy to understand users, shape priorities, challenge assumptions, and help the team discover effective solutions.
Responsibilities:
Create clarity around what matters most. Work with R&D leadership and your team to define meaningful outcomes, establish priorities, and ensure the team understands what it should focus on and why.
Develop a deep understanding of our users and their problems. Learn how baseball decisions are made, understand the workflows and constraints surrounding them, and work with stakeholders to get to the root of the problem.
Help the team discover effective solutions. Partner with engineers, data scientists, analysts, baseball experts, and users to explore ideas, test assumptions, reduce uncertainty, and adapt as you learn. Solutions may involve software, analytical models, new data, changes to workflows, or some combination of these.
Keep important work moving. Protect the team’s focus on the highest-leverage problems and partner closely with Domain Leads, who bring technical and domain expertise, to make tradeoffs explicit, sequence work realistically, and intervene when high-priority work stalls or ownership is unclear.
Measure impact and learn from what we build. Use qualitative and quantitative evidence to understand whether our products are improving decisions and workflows, and use those insights to shape future priorities and direction.
Build alignment on process and philosophy. Work with other product managers in R&D to align on best practices for process and product management.
Qualifications:
We don’t expect any candidate to have done all of these things. We’re interested in people who can demonstrate several of these experiences or capabilities and who have the curiosity and ability to grow into the others:
Authorized to work lawfully in the United States.
Owned meaningful product problems end to end , from understanding the user need through discovery, prioritization, launch, and iteration.
Made difficult prioritization decisions when multiple valuable opportunities competed for limited time or resources.
Used discovery and evidence to change direction , drawing on user research, experiments, usage data, or other signals rather than simply executing an initial plan.
Worked closely with engineers, data scientists, or other technical experts on products where data, analytics, or models were a meaningful part of the solution. You do not need to build the models yourself, but you should be comfortable understanding their capabilities and limitations and helping turn them into useful products.
Operated with high agency and a hands-on approach , identifying important problems and finding practical ways to reduce uncertainty and move them forward.
Demonstrated a genuine interest in baseball and an ability to learn complex domains deeply. You do not need previous professional baseball experience, but you should be excited to learn how baseball decisions are made and have evidence that you can become fluent enough in an unfamiliar domain to make good product decisions within it.
Desired:
Building data, analytics, AI/ML, or decision-support products.
Working with expert users or in technically complex domains.
Working on a startup or small product team with broad ownership.
A demonstrated passion for sports technology and/or sports analytics.
Experience with rapid prototyping, software development, SQL, and/or cloud technologies.
Working in agile development environments.
Equal Opportunity Employer
The Pittsburgh Pirates are an equal employment opportunity employer. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, disability status, protected veteran status or any other characteristic protected by law.
To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.
Analyst – Coaching and Player Development
The Pirates Why
The Pittsburgh Pirates are a storied franchise in Major League Baseball who are reinventing themselves on every level. Boldly and relentlessly pursuing excellence by:
purposefully developing a player and people-centered culture;
deeply connecting with our fans, partners, and colleagues;
passionately creating lifetime memories for generations of families and friends; and
meaningfully impacting our communities and the game of baseball.
At the Pirates, we believe in the power of a diverse workforce and strive to create an inclusive culture centered in Passion, Innovation, Respect, Accountability, Teamwork, Empathy, and Service.
Job Summary
Support Coaching and Player Development (CPD) by turning performance data, research, and video into clear player evaluations and actionable development insights. This role will help coaches and CPD leadership identify player priorities, monitor progress, and make informed development decisions. The successful candidate will combine strong analytical skills, baseball knowledge, and the ability to communicate clearly with coaches. Working within Player Analysis and closely with Research and Development (R&D), this analyst will produce reliable analysis, maintain useful reporting, and help staff apply organizational research and tools in their daily work.
Responsibilities:
Analyze player performance using tracking data, statistical models, video, and other available information to identify strengths, limitations, and development opportunities.
Evaluate hitter/pitcher tendencies and other assigned areas of player performance, accounting for pitch characteristics, game context, competition level, and sample size.
Translate research and analytical findings into practical recommendations that support player evaluations, development plans, and CPD decisions.
Support the player plan process by helping coaches identify objective focus metrics, establish baselines, document priorities, and update measures of progress.
Monitor performance trends and communicate meaningful changes to the appropriate staff in a timely manner, distinguishing likely skill changes from short-term variation.
Build and maintain reports, dashboards, and visualizations that answer coaching questions clearly and are accessible through organizational systems, including Bridge as appropriate.
Use current R&D research and models in CPD reporting; work with R&D to understand assumptions, resolve questions, and provide feedback on tools and analysis.
Partner with product and technical teams on durable reporting solutions; automate recurring work and validate data quality before sharing results.
Maintain reproducible code, version-controlled analysis, and clear workflow documentation in organizational systems such as DevOps or GitHub.
Help coaches interpret reports and use analytical tools independently; seek feedback on whether the information is understandable and useful in practice.
Complete timely analysis for player meetings, offseason planning, Spring Training, and other CPD projects as assigned; communicate priorities and handle player information with discretion.
Qualifications
Required:
Bachelor’s degree in statistics, mathematics, computer science, data science, sports analytics, or a related field, or equivalent practical experience.
Demonstrated ability to complete analytical projects from a defined question through data preparation, analysis, and clear communication of findings.
Proficiency in Python or R and working knowledge of SQL for accessing, cleaning, joining, and analyzing data.
Understanding of statistical reasoning, sample size, uncertainty, and the limitations of observational data.
Working knowledge of baseball performance analysis and a strong interest in player development.
Ability to explain technical information in practical language and collaborate effectively with coaches, analysts, and other staff.
Strong attention to detail, organization, and follow-through; ability to manage recurring work alongside time-sensitive requests.
Availability to support the baseball schedule, including nights, weekends, holidays, and travel as required by the role.
Desired:
Experience working with baseball tracking data, player development reports, or performance analysis in a team or comparable setting.
Experience building dashboards, interactive visualizations, or automated reporting workflows for end users.
Familiarity with Git-based version control, documented analytical workflows, and collaboration with software or product teams.
Experience applying statistical models to player evaluation, monitoring performance over time, or assessing development outcomes.
Our Commitment to Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion
Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DE&I) are integral to who we are as an organization. We believe that our workforce should reflect the vast diversity of the communities we serve and that diverse voices should be elevated and intentionally integrated into our work. Even if you feel as if you do not meet 100% of the qualifications, we still strongly encourage you to apply.
To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.
The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/job-posting-pittsburgh-pirates-multiple-openings-2/

#pittsburghpirates #softwareengineer #baseball #playerdevelopment #job #majorleague #systems #jobsummary

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The Brewers Are Eating the Elephant There is an old saying that ...

2026-10-24T04:13:45Z

The Brewers Are Eating the Elephant

There is an old saying that goes, how do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time. In baseball terms, how do you eat the two-time reigning champs with a $412 million payroll and steamroll into the World Series? One shrewd acquisition at a time. Throughout the National League Championship Series, the ragtag Milwaukee Brewers played their most inspired ball of the season, taking down the almighty…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-brewers-are-eating-the-elephant/

#milwaukeebrewers #worldseries #championshipseries #leaguechampionship #nationalleague

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Rangers Prospect Sebastian Walcott Projects to Wallop Baseballs ...

2026-10-24T02:30:26Z

Rangers Prospect Sebastian Walcott Projects to Wallop Baseballs in the Bigs

John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
Sebastian Walcott arguably possesses the highest ceiling among players currently competing in the Arizona Fall League. Not only is the 20-year-old shortstop ranked 11th on The Board with a 55 FV, Eric Longenhagen opined in his AFL preview that Walcott “might be the best prospect in baseball.” Brendan Gawlowski has likewise been bullish. When ranking the youngster atop our Texas Rangers list back in April, Brendan wrote that “Walcott has been one of the toolsiest and most projectable players in the game from practically the moment he signed as part of the 2023 international class.”
An elbow injury delayed his start to the season. The Nassau, Bahamas native underwent internal brace surgery in February and subsequently didn’t return to game action until mid-July. Understandably erring on the side of caution, the Rangers limited Walcott almost exclusively to DH duty (although he is back on the dirt in the desert — and reportedly also working out in the outfield — with the Surprise Saguaros.)
The layoff didn’t prove burdensome to his bat. Getting the lion’s share of his 187 regular-season plate appearances with Double-A Frisco, Walcott walloped 10 home runs while putting up a .325/.401/.590 slash line and a 149 wRC+. He hasn’t been nearly as good in the AFL — seven hits in 31 at-bats, with a lone dinger — but there is no disputing his potential to one day hit in the middle of a big league lineup.
Once upon a time, he punished pitchers who were windmilling balls from a mound 43 feet away from home plate. As did Jazz Chisholm Jr. and others from the Bahamas, Walcott played softball growing up.
“When I was in school in the Bahamas, we played [fast pitch],” said Walcott, echoing what Chisholm told me for a July 2023 Sunday Notes column. “So, I played a little bit of softball during my time there, as well as baseball. I think that helped me, both as an infielder and as a hitter. A softball really helps you get backspin when you’re throwing, and to hit a softball is pretty hard, because it’s coming from a spot you don’t really see in baseball.”
It is especially helpful when it comes to handling high-riding heaters. Riseballs are prominent in fast pitch, and as Walcott explained, “You have to get on top of them and try to drive the ball to the middle of the field.”
Which isn’t to say that his right-handed stroke was honed primarily against pitches akin to those thrown by legends such as Eddie “The King” Feigner and Jenny Finch. Walcott said he played much more baseball than softball, including “a lot of travel ball in South Florida.”
Befitting Eric’s description of a “power-hitting shortstop built like [former NFL receiver] Julio Jones,” Walcott is capable of propelling pitches far distances. But while moonshots are part of his profile, they aren’t his primary goal when he steps into the batter’s box. More than anything, he just wants to get something good to hit and put the barrel on the baseball.
“I’m trying to keep it as simple as I can,” Walcott said. “You don’t want to be overthinking in this game, especially when you’re hitting. It’s all about getting the rhythm and timing down — hitting is all about rhythm — so while you have to know your strengths and all that, I’m mainly just focusing on how I’m attacking the baseball. If I’m staying through the middle of the field, I’m doing something right, whereas if I’m pulling off, I’m going to be coming out of the zone too quickly. When I’m in the cage, I want to hit the ball from center to right field. I try to then translate that approach to the game.”
But again, the plus raw power is real. As much as his mindset is to hit line drives, he isn’t going to make his money as a singles and doubles hitter. Walcott is a top-tier prospect largely due to his pop.
“I am a threat,” he acknowledged. “Every time I step up to the plate I can do some damage. I’m not trying to do damage — I’m just trying to hit a line drive up the middle — but sometimes the damage comes.”
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rangers-prospect-sebastian-walcott-projects-to-wallop-baseballs-in-the-bigs/

#sebastianwalcott #prospectsebastian #walcottprojects #wallopbaseballs #rangersprospect #imagessebastian #arizonafall #bigs #fallleague #ericlongenhagen

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Members-Only Game Thread: World Series – Oct 23, 2026 Welcome ...

2026-10-24T01:55:45Z

Members-Only Game Thread: World Series – Oct 23, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the World Series game today. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/members-only-game-thread-world-series-oct-23-2026/

#worldseries #gamethread #opengame #staff #fangraphsstaff #please

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Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 10/23/26 Eric Longenhagen 9:00 ...

2026-10-24T00:46:15Z

Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 10/23/26

Eric Longenhagen 9:00 AM
Howdy from the kitchen table in Tempe where I'm being serenaded by a symphony of leaf blowers just over the back wall.
Eric Longenhagen 9:03 AM
Sorry that this is my first chat in a couple of weeks, I've been dealing with some still-undiagnosed health stuff that seems to be abating. Pretty sure I'm okay. Had some illuminating experiences with our health care system though, and I'm pretty sure that's not. Anyway, I've still been at a ton of Fall League games and have a midway point post and Board update brewing, which might run as soon as later today but more likely Monday. For now, we chat.
Charles Bengal Tiger 9:06 AM
How much upside does Luis Lara have as a hitter? What would be a reasonable projection for him a few years down the road?
Eric Longenhagen 9:06 AM
He has as much upside as he can add strength without compromising the things he currently does really well. I think he's always going to be a sub-.400 SLG guy who plays awesome defense and makes a ton of contact. I think he has better long term upside than what Sal Frelick has been, but that what Frelick has been able to do is a lot like what Lara's skillset looks like right now.
Eric Longenhagen 9:07 AM
All of that is to say: I feel comfortable with the 45 we put on Lara, but less comfortable with it than the 45 we put on Pratt. Both feel like solid role players rather than stars.
Solitaire 9:08 AM
Request to pass on: add a filter to the minor league leaderboards for prospect status. I'd love to be able to quickly filter to the guys of note and/or see what sort of stats are reasonable for prospects rather than 29 YO journeymen
Eric Longenhagen 9:08 AM
We do have that, just click on the "Show All" tab and you can set filters for age: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board-scouting-and-s…
leoneforthird 9:11 AM
Thank you for doing these chats. Do you think the Mariners place Ace Reece in AA to start the year next year or just put him in Everett and fast track him if he has success. Also is his stock a little higher than it was after the draft and is he a potential top 100 prospect?
Eric Longenhagen 9:11 AM
I would ordinarily tell you that they'd give him a good amount of big league reps during spring training and then decide whether to start him at High-A or Double-A based on how he looks, but I think a lack of MLB spring training means we should take the "under", so to speak, on these guys' assignments. Reese probably isn't an offseason top 100 guy, I'm not one to be moved by an SEC hitter going to the Cal League after the draft and crushing it there. He should, it would have been alarming had he not. Send him to Everett and he'll probably do more of the same. He can't really play defense so I wanna see him crush in Arkansas before buying it, personally.
nicklocarno 9:15 AM
The fantasy community seems to have collectively gotten higher on Zion Rose in the months since the draft, and lower on Eric Booth Jr. Is this simple SSS overreaction, or are these informed by real scouting intel?
Eric Longenhagen 9:15 AM
I can't speak for the fantasy "community" and I want readers to remember the way opinions spread online and how they can cloud what the array of opinions would be if everyone were sequestered before arriving at one. I can tell you that Zion looks damn good in the AFL, and that Brendan and I both agreed we should just 50 him this offseason. He's stock up. Booth is a hold. What your dynasty team needs (do you need a solid regular soon? Or do you need to take a shot on a potentially freaky stud who might also bust?) should dictate how you line them up on your FYPD board.
Anonymous Member #46 9:17 AM
Congratulations on your promotion to Prospect Impresario!
Eric Longenhagen 9:17 AM
This has been what Baumann has called me since the Crashburn Alley days, back in… 2012? Sheesh.
washedupscout 9:22 AM
Hey Eric! This is John McNamara. We spoke last year when I interviewed with FanGraphs for the full-time prospect writer role. I was a scout with the San Diego Padres for eight years, and I really enjoyed our conversation about baseball and scouting. I recently wrapped up my time with the Padres and am looking for my next opportunity in baseball. I’d love to get your thoughts on where my scouting background might translate or if there’s anyone you think I should connect with. I’d really appreciate any advice or guidance. Thanks
Eric Longenhagen 9:22 AM
Hey John, I remember. You were a good candidate and interview. I worry that scouting isn't exactly a growth industry, especially on the pro side. It's more stable on the amateur side because of how much more valuable and actionable "dope" is, and the fact that teams are guaranteed to acquire players via that market, whereas pro impact is more situational. So I'd try to stay on the amateur side. I also think it might be fruitful for more scouts to transition into college baseball as recruiters/GMs. Depending on how things turn out with the pending legislation around college sports, and where things settle post-lockout/CBA with regard to draft processes, it might suddenly make more sense for colleges to have more scouting and recruiting personnel than they already do. Find out what scouts have left pro ball for a job at a college and see if you can reach out to them for counsel. It might be cool to be the transfer portal scout for Miami, or something like that.
Solitaire 9:24 AM
You see a batter change levels and suddenly his swing, contact, groundball, and pull percentages all take big jumps. But it's only 20 games. Guy got a new coach who taught/convinced him of a new swing/approach or just a flukey 20 games? 20 games is very small sample for results, but seems decent for approach. Eye-test needed to see if anything is actually different?
Eric Longenhagen 9:24 AM
You can pretty easily marry the data change flag with a look at the wing on video to get a better feel for whether or not there has actually been a change. If you have a way of flagging changes in the data over a short (but statistically significant) window of time and then running down the flagged targets with your eye balls, that's ideal.
Charles Bengal Tiger 9:25 AM
Does Kendry Rojas of MIN still project as a starting pitcher?
Eric Longenhagen 9:25 AM
Yeah, I think as long as he has options he'll be rolled out as a starter enough to keep his innings count within a reasonable distance of full-time starting once his option years run out. The guys who tend to stick as starters are the ones whose bodies and deliveries look like Kendry's.
war2d2 9:29 AM
Eric! The Cubs are running back their MLB pitching infrastructure, which got me thinking about their inability to build any kind of a minor league pitching pipeline for what is now almost 20 years of the Theo/Jed regime. Is it just bad drafting, bad development, or some kind of institutional blind spot that’s led to this? I’d have a hard time coming up with more than five pitchers in the last 20 years that they drafted, developed, and got value out of. In fact, Cease would probably be on that list and they traded him from A ball.
Eric Longenhagen 9:29 AM
I think they've had some success but it hasn't been sustained success. Steele popped and then got hurt and looked like a shell of himself during rehab in AZ. I can say that their style of development tends to include velo spikes and pitch additions. Everyone suddenly has a cutter and a sweeper when before they had just one breaker, and they might throw a few ticks harder. But they haven't tended to develop or improve command. The Naz Mule's of the world don't need two more pitches, they need control. So maybe there hasn't been cohesion with what the draft has fed the dev group. Some teams, like the Brewers' pitchers, show similar trends where they all of a sudden have five pitches. And others, like the Rays, basically have guys throw 2 pitches the whole time they're in the minors and don't really care to flesh out repertoires as much.
szakyl 9:29 AM
After AFL, how much confidence do you have that 2025 is behind him, and Welbyn Francisca is a legit prospect again?
Eric Longenhagen 9:29 AM
He's back from the dead, imo.
Anonymous Member #46 9:31 AM
How much are we knocking off your future value due to the health concerns?
Eric Longenhagen 9:31 AM
You should ding my "party/hang" tool grade because I can't drink until I'm done with this run of medication. It was already a 40, unplayable now.
Brian Reinhart 9:31 AM
Hope you continue recovering from your case of the bleph
ljax1979 9:33 AM
The Royals have to trade Blake Mitchell this winter, right?
Eric Longenhagen 9:33 AM
I think catching depth is important enough that, unless they think he's totally bunk from all the K's, they should probably hold onto him. If you think it's enough K's to make him a binary "no" as a hitter, than sure you can sell high on him coming off a 30 homer season.
Eric Longenhagen 9:33 AM
This chat interface is so rad.
wallyworld2199 9:35 AM
How is Briggs McKenzie looking coming off injury? Young, but seemed like he had some good stuff early on and the Braves are one of the better orgs developing pitchers
Eric Longenhagen 9:35 AM
I saw his first start and haven't run into him since (I went to see the Fielder/Holmes movie last night) but he looked like Diet Bumgarner to me in the first game. Graceful, repeatable, deceptive, feel, good breaker quality. Starter all the way, mid rotation upside. Think we'll leave the 45+ on him, though, and make him a Pick to Click rather than hondo him right now.
Alex Remington 9:38 AM
Looking at these two teams, there are a lot of really productive guys on both rosters who probably would not have been stars had they been developed in other organizations. Logan Henderson's a good example! Obviously, when you're doing a Board-type prospect ranking, it's hard to take org into account because guys can get traded and it's impossible to control for that, but – how much of the variance in a prospect's outcome can be traced directly to what organization they're in? And, as an analyst, what do you do with that?
Eric Longenhagen 9:38 AM
This is the classic "predicting vs scouting" question. We have to assess the player in a vacuum, but you should feel free to put your thumb on the scale of predicting the outcome based on what orgs you think/know are better at developing players, or putting them in position to succeed. Like Andrew Vaughn changed orgs after he graduated, there's nothing we can do about retconning our grade, things just happen and it plays out and you hope you're directionally correct on the player.
baseballfan115 9:41 AM
When evaluating future outfield defense, how do you determine whether a player who is transitioning to the OF has the capacity to judge the flyballs/get efficient and quick jumps?
Eric Longenhagen 9:41 AM
Just watch the initial transition and see how natural it is for the player to do the things he needs to do at the OF position. Then give it time to breathe and check in a few months later on whether there's been progress. Some guys take to it right away, others need time/reps, and some will never get comfortable doing it.
clubberlang 9:43 AM
Thanks for chatting! Angeibel Gomez has been raking lately in AFL. Does that change your opinion of his upside?
Eric Longenhagen 9:43 AM
I think the very aggressive 50 we have on him is still appropriate. Real power and feel to hit, probably a corner OF in the end. To go from "new signee" to "guy we feel pretty strongly is a future everyday player" is really impressive. I don't think he's Acuna or anything like that.
Phil 9:43 AM
Eric, it looks like the banner link is missing part of the url for this chat–the one in the blogroll works. Thought you'd want to know!
Eric Longenhagen 9:43 AM
Thanks, idk why, we've asked Sean and I'm sure I just goofed something when I built the post because it's my first time chatting solo with this interface.
smoothio 9:44 AM
Did Salas’ debut move the needle for you? I wonder if he has enough bat to be a superstar catcher like you’d expect from one getting started as a 20 year old.
Eric Longenhagen 9:44 AM
Yeah, I think he's a top 5 prospect and will be a consistent 3 WAR catcher.
rossredcay 9:46 AM
Not a prospect, but is Victor Mesa Jr. a possible major breakout next year in an everyday role? No real platoon split that would seem to indicate he needs to sit against lefties.
Eric Longenhagen 9:46 AM
Seems possible, yes. Swing changed, more power without sacrificing a ton of contact. Contact was actually better in '26 than before, even with the more aggressive swing. Obviously has profile-altering arm strength and defensive profile. Could be 40 hit with 45 or 50 power and big time defense. That's at least a good platoon guy (45) if not an everyday player. We had him graded as an extra outfielder, basically a pure defensive replacement.
rossredcay 9:47 AM
I know your opinion or way of thinking of these low contact sluggers (e.g. Murakami) has changed somewhat. I assume Griffin Conine is a guy who would fit into that bucket of bats. I've been waiting for the bottom to fall out give his awful contact rate, but is this a guy who could have a more sustainable role going forward given this shift in the game?
Eric Longenhagen 9:47 AM
Yeah, the number of sub-70% contact guys keeps climbing and it's at the point where I need to reassess my baselines for viability, or at least try to separate the guys who aren't gonna hit enough to matter from the ones who will somehow. There are still guys with 65% contact who just aren't going to hit, it isn't like all of a sudden those guys are good to go.
Eric Longenhagen 9:48 AM
But why Murakami (who sucked down the stretch btw, he might be due for a regression and all of this will be moot) and not Jack Cust, or whoever.
jkrangel1524 9:50 AM
By your rankings Eyanson, Zazueta, Flora and Susana are are close to each other. Do you have a personal preference/order to these arms that differs from the rankings and if so, why?
Eric Longenhagen 9:50 AM
Nah, they're *my* rankings. Susana it's 99-102 with bad shape, bad strikes, and an elite slider. He's probably a reliever but one of the ten best relievers in baseball. Zazueta it's velo, ride, command, changeup, but no good breaking ball. Mid-rotation guy with a flaw that prevents him from being a no. 2 or better. Flora could be the most complete guy of that group if he can stay healthy and throw strikes across 140+ innings, Eyanson is a little closer to having done that with 100 IP in pro ball this year.
tdmoc 9:51 AM
Any chance Patrick Reilly can still start even with the lost time? Slider is playing much nicer than pre-TJS
Eric Longenhagen 9:51 AM
Yes, I think the more vertical breaker will play against lefties and there are enough strikes. He's probably a five-and-dive type, though.
Bud Smith 9:53 AM
Following up on a few weeks ago – any insight into why Aiva Arquette went on the IL for the last two days of the season?
Eric Longenhagen 9:53 AM
Arquette had three IL stints this year. In order: Sports hernia (which is what I thought I had two weeks ago), thumb sprain, then oblique.
rossredcay 9:53 AM
What would you say is the % chance Brody Hopkins just sticks in the pen from here on out? I'm assuming he gets another shot in the rotation next year at least, but is that for sure?
Eric Longenhagen 9:53 AM
I'd say like 90% bullpen now that he's on the 40. Conversion arms tend to be in the bullpen.
Charles Bengal Tiger 9:54 AM
In my (very deep) dynasty league I have a chance to draft Jared Grindlinger if I drop Xavier Neyens. Advisable, or would this be negligible gain?
Eric Longenhagen 9:54 AM
I want Grindlinger
tdmoc 9:54 AM
(also fyi the banner link leads to a 404 page)
Eric Longenhagen 9:54 AM
This has been fixed
tjralstin13 9:55 AM
Now with 3 injury marred or inconsistent seasons under his belt, do you have any confidence in Evan Carter or Wyatt Langford reaching their full potential? They have both showed flashes, but Wyatt's decisions at the plate, defensive miscues and health have been infuriating. Carter also can't seem to choose an approach that gives him sustained offensive success similar to the lightning in bottle run he had in 2023. Do you have any recommendations for either of them or the Rangers moving forward that you've observed? Thanks again!
Eric Longenhagen 9:55 AM
I'm still on Long

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-10-23-26/

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Postseason Manager Report Card: Stephen Vogt For lack of a more ...

2026-10-24T00:10:54Z

Postseason Manager Report Card: Stephen Vogt

For lack of a more G-rated way to put it, Guardians manager Stephen Vogt managed his ass off during the playoffs. Though let’s be clear up top, a lot of managing is not always a reflection of smart managing. The Guardians operated with their usual duct-taped-together lineup, but in an uncharacteristic break with their recent history, they had just two bona fide starters in Parker Messick and…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/postseason-manager-report-card-stephen-vogt/

#stephenvogt #parkermessick #though

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Mathemadage: The Inevitable Reliever Blowup Theory Kirby ...

2026-10-23T23:02:23Z

Mathemadage: The Inevitable Reliever Blowup Theory

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
If you’ve watched a postseason game in the last decade, you’ve heard the theory. Honestly, if you’ve watched a postseason game in the last decade, you’ve probably thought of the theory yourself. When a team eschews a regular starter and instead uses a string of relievers, surely one of those relievers is bound to be a little bit off. There are just so many of them. What, they’re all going to have it? C’mon, man. Be reasonable. And what happens as a result? Well, that reliever is going to give up a bunch of runs. You know, like pitchers do when they don’t have it. Obvious!
Hello, and welcome to another edition of Mathemadage. This time, we’re hot on the trail of what I like to call the Inevitable Reliever Blowup Theory. There isn’t one specific adage to point to here, but I’ve always wondered about this effect myself, and last week Other Ben (Lindbergh) forwarded me this tweet:
I hear this every bullpen game that the risk is law of averages says one of the relievers wont have it.
I have not seen any actual study anyone has done about this. Seems like it is just passed around as conventional wisdom.
— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) October 3, 2026
That was a good enough excuse for me to dig in – like I said, I’ve had this on my mind for a while, and the playoffs are the perfect time for a deep dive. But before I started cracking open my spreadsheets and coding agents, I did a literature review, because I knew I couldn’t be the first person to have investigated this. Back in 2015, Henry Druschel found that starters had more “disaster” outings than relievers, though he didn’t delve into the stacking aspect of using multiple relievers in a single game. I also found former colleague Kevin Goldstein’s investigation into the subject, which focused on the Rays’ ability to avoid reliever blowups. But those didn’t settle the debate for me, so I pressed on.
One of the hardest parts of this problem is defining it. How ineffective does a pitcher have to be for it to count as a blowup? What does “not having it” mean? How about counterfactuals? I spent a long time thinking about what I was even trying to measure here – in this day and age of everyone having tremendous analytical power at their fingertips, it’s easy to make a bad experimental design look quite shiny indeed. I came up with a few definitions of the problem and investigated each to see if they agreed with each other.
I began by measuring “blowups” in two ways: runs allowed in an inning, and wOBA allowed in an inning. On the runs side, I used a few different blowup thresholds; you’ll see me refer to two runs in an inning, three runs in an inning, or five runs in the first six inning of a game. On the wOBA front, I considered wOBA both unadjusted and relative to expectations, with those expectations based on the regressed seasonal lines of the pitchers and hitters. I picked a ton of different options so that no definition would be load bearing; if our different blowup measures are saying different things, that’s a sign that we need to dig further.
Using runs as a measure of blowups is self explanatory. Why also add wOBA? If a guy walks four hitters in an inning, sprinkles in a double play, then gives up another single to get chased, I think it’s a blowup even if only one run scores. On the other hand, surrendering a single and then suffering three straight errors isn’t a blowup to me. I also care about the whole inning, not just the length of time that a pitcher was in. Why? Because one key benefit of bringing in a reliever is that if he doesn’t have it, you can just bring in another reliever. If reliever A loads the bases with no one out and then reliever B comes in and wriggles out of the jam without a run scoring, well, the jam was wriggled out of. Can’t charge the bullpenning strategy with a blowup if there was no blowup.
As for whether a pitcher does or doesn’t have it, we need to understand how big the difference is between a good and bad day for them – in other words, what is their volatility? My first attempt at working out pitcher volatility was to model it from actual performance. To do that, I gauged pitcher form through a big old covariance matrix comparing within-outing variance to overall variance. I did this for starters and relievers separately. I found that reliever form varies quite a bit; the spread in a single reliever’s form from outing to the next was about as big as the spread in talent between relievers. Starter form varies a bit less, but there’s a meaningful spread there too. Pitchers just pitch differently on different days – that’s hardly surprising. This effect was concentrated in whiffs and strikeouts, and likely related to velocity; I found a clear relationship between pitcher velocity relative to their own average and pitcher effectiveness relative to their own average. If you’re looking for a rough order of magnitude, I found that a league average reliever having a one-standard-deviation good form day pitches to a 3.60 RA9, versus a 5.20 RA9 for a one-standard-deviation bad form day. That’s meaningful.
With all that in hand, I ran a simulation. I constructed two different pitching plans. In one, I created a starting pitcher, gave him league average true talent, and then selected his daily form randomly from the distribution of starter form that I’d built up above. I built some simple relief pitcher rules based on actual managerial decisions – the more runs allowed and the later in the game, the more likely that a starter’s bad inning gets him pulled and replaced with a string of league-average relievers. I also tested one where a starter always got pulled after three runs, and one where he always stayed in for six innings, just to establish some bounds. I also built in a times-through-the-order penalty; starters do a little better than their overall line the first time through, and a little worse than their overall line the third time through.
To model the reliever side of things, I created six relievers, each with the same league average true talent I gave the starters, and then selected each reliever’s daily form randomly from the distribution of reliever form. I didn’t model any hooks here; each pitcher who started an inning finished it. Then I used a Markov chain, the details of which I’m happy to discuss on the side if you’re the kind of person who wants to discuss Markov chains on the internet, to figure out the distribution of run scoring under each plan:
Modeled Runs Allowed in Innings 1-6, Three Strategies
Strategy
Avg. Runs
P(5+ Runs)
P(any 2+ run inning)
Six Relievers
2.93
22.5%
55.0%
Starter, Real Hooks
2.90
22.3%
54.4%
Starter, No Hook
2.93
22.7%
54.6%
Starter, Hook at 3+R
2.88
21.9%
54.5%
If there’s any effect here, its size is tiny. The odds of a two-plus run inning were pretty much identical across the board, as were average runs allowed and the odds of a blowup game, with five or more runs in the first six innings (we’re leaving out innings seven through nine because that’s where relievers will typically pitch regardless of your bullpen strategy). That’s despite the fact that the six-reliever plan really does end up with a pitcher having a bad day more often. I know that to be the case because I literally specified it in the model.
Why? It comes down to two things. First, sequencing luck and the inescapable fact that baseball has a lot of randomness in outcomes are the main drivers of run scoring. Take the distribution of actual runs allowed per inning across the entire season; the standard deviation is about a run per inning. That’s much bigger than the standard deviation of pitcher talent or pitcher form. Sometimes you scatter five hits; sometimes they stack up. For comparison, one standard deviation of form is worth about 0.09 runs per inning in expectation. Whether you’re having a good day or a bad day matters a little for how many runs score in a given inning, but how the cookie crumbles matters more. That’s why all of these numbers are about the same, even though the effect points in the direction we would expect.
Second, relievers are more likely to be in good form, too. Six arms means six chances to draw someone who turns in a clunker, but it also means six chances to draw someone who’s red-hot. And while we think of blowups as largely driven by pitchers not having it, the converse is true too. A pitcher who’s really locked in on a given day is less likely to allow a blowup.
Okay, that’s a simulated version of reality. What about actual reality, though? I’m pretty sure that John Smoltz, a big proponent of the Inevitable Reliever Blowup Theory, isn’t going to read this section of my article and be convinced. I didn’t even use any real baseball players! So let’s fix that problem by taking actual starter and reliever performances.
For this version, I switched over to wOBA allowed in each inning. I produced an expectation for each fresh half-inning (ignoring mid-inning entries) thrown by every pitcher in baseball in the regular season or postseason from 2015 to 2026. The expectation uses regressed pitcher talent and regressed hitter talent, so a scrub facing the Dodgers projects to do much worse than a closer facing the Giants. I then compared the expectation to the actual wOBA allowed in that inning:
I added an annotation to the spike on the left part of the graph; lots of innings go 1-2-3, so there’s a big chunk of data points there. The distribution tails off to the right just like you’d expect something random to do, with 7.2% of observed innings that were 300 or more points of wOBA above expectations. I picked 300 points because it’s a nice round number and really does indicate a blowup, but different thresholds produced similar results.
I wanted to compare that to random chance, so I came up with a test: Instead of using real innings, I constructed innings by sampling randomly from actual results that pitcher had that year, grabbing one result at a time until I hit three outs. In other words, I got rid of daily form completely by picking arbitrary groupings of plate appearances rather than all the plate appearances from a single day. That’s the black line here:
As you can see, blowup innings (300 wOBA points or more above expectations) happen more frequently than you’d expect from chance alone. That’s evidence that pitcher form moves from day to day; we observe more days with a concentration of bad results than you’d expect if everything was pure randomness. But 7.2% isn’t that much more than the 6.5% we’d expect from pure randomness – again, lots of blowup innings just come down to sequencing luck and random chance in a game that features a round bat hitting a round ball. Next, let’s look at how starters compare to relievers using the same standard:
Frankly, these distributions look incredibly similar. Starters also have more blowup innings than you’d expect by chance, though they have marginally fewer than relievers, and their odds of blowing up are closer to random chance than that of relievers. That’s the intuition that led to this question in the first place, and the effect is here. It’s just incredibly small.
For completeness’ sake, I ran the same test using runs instead of wOBA. This time, I didn’t do any adjusting for expectations. I just counted how many runs scored, and then did the same random-chance reshuffling from above to compare it to a baseline. There isn’t much of an effect here, but it’s worth noting that relievers had fewer innings where two or more runs scored. That’s because relievers had better results than starters in our voluminous sample:
I think this provides good evidence that there’s no real bullpen blowup issue to worry about. But just to be safe, I decided to go a little bit further. First, I took all the playoff games from 2015 to 2026 and split out starter and reliever innings by wOBA allowed. I didn’t do this one “against expectation” since I think it’s a bit less clear what that means in playoff games; this is just the distribution of actual inning-level wOBA allowed for both groups:
To me, those are compelling charts. But this article isn’t about convincing me; I’d have had a much easier time writing it if so. It’s about convincing people who didn’t just do 10 hours of research from a bunch of angles. So while this last test isn’t as statistically rigorous as the rest thanks to its small sample size, I did one more check: I just looked at actual bullpen games in the playoffs.
To do this, I split every team-game since our playoff database started in 2002 into one of four buckets: bullpen games started by a short-stint reliever (think Daniel Espino this year, or Trevor Megill and Louis Varland last year), bullpen games started by some type of improvised bulk pitcher (think Ray Kerr or Hagen Smith this year), regular games started by an ace (the starter with that team’s highest regular-season WAR), and regular games started by a non-ace starter. Then I just counted up how many runs were allowed in each, as well as what percentage of the time the team allowed five or more runs in a game (here I’m using all nine innings, not just the first six), and what percentage of the time the team allowed three or more runs in a single inning:
Runs Allowed By Start Type, Postseason, 2002-2026
Game Type
Games
RA/G
5+ Runs%
3+ Run Inning%
W-L
All Bullpen
50
4.20
42%
34%
24-26
Bullpen, Short Reliever Starts
26
3.85
42%
27%
13-13
Bullpen, Bulk Guy Starts
24
4.58
42%
42%
11-13
All Starters
1756
4.15
39%
36%
879-877
Ace Starter
530
3.91
36%
34%
270-260
Non-Ace Starter
1226
4.25
41%
37%
609-617
Bullpen games have been almost exactly equivalent to non-ace starter games in our sample, with 4.20 runs allowed compared to 4.25, and 42% of games allowing five or more runs as compared to 41%. Meanwhile, 34% of bullpen games contained a three-plus run inning; 36% of games with conventional starters had one of those. The sample size for bullpen games is minuscule, and I wouldn’t consider this scientific proof or anything. But it’s what I expected to see after all the other data. It sure doesn’t seem like there’s much difference between bullpenning the whole game and using anyone other than your very best pitcher to start.
There are a few caveats to this. I wouldn’t read too much into my splitting of each group; it’s not like my view of who was a short-burst reliever and who was a bulk guy in 2016 is perfectly accurate. Likewise, ace vs. non-ace is a pretty blurry distinction, and it gets blurrier the further back we go. But there’s just really nothing to see here. If the Inevitable Bullpen Blowup Theory held water, you’d expect to see much different numbers between these two groups, not tables that look pretty indistinguishable from top to bottom.
Do I think that this deep dive will convince the most ardent proponents of the Inevitable Reliever Blowup Theory? Most certainly not. Its most ardent proponents probably aren’t people who read FanGraphs, or care about statistics. Many of them actively dislike statistics, in fact; seeing statistical evidence that runs contrary to their belief might make them more sure they’re right. But I’m still happy I did this, because like I said, the theory has intuitive merit, and if I didn’t investigate it, I’d still be in the dark about whether it exists or not. As it turns out, there’s some evidence suggesting that reliever form is real and that guys have good and bad days that have an impact on their run prevention. There’s just no evidence that it matters at the game level, because there are a million offsetting effects, and various probabilistic effects – sequencing, batted ball luck, and so on – swamp the variance in pitcher form.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mathemadage-the-inevitable-reliever-blowup-theory/

#inevitablereliever #blowuptheory #mathemadage #woba

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 1 of 11 Jayne ...

2026-10-23T21:52:19Z

Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 1 of 11

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2026-27 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive a contract at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Statistics are prorated to full season values where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2027 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for 11 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of pitchers, including the winter’s top free agent.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contract-crowdsourcing-2026-27-ballot-1-of-12/

#contractcrowdsourcing #free #worldseries #imagesfree #ballot #war

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Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 2 of 11 Vincent ...

2026-10-23T20:43:43Z

Contract Crowdsourcing 2026-27: Ballot 2 of 11

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2026-27 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive a contract at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Statistics are prorated to full season values where noted. Unless otherwise indicated, the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2027 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for 11 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of infielders, including one with a big opt-out decision looming.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/contract-crowdsourcing-2026-27-ballot-2-of-12/

#contractcrowdsourcing #worldseries #free #imagesfree #ballot #war

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Can the Rays Crack Jacob Misiorowski? The way people talk about ...

2026-10-23T03:32:42Z

Can the Rays Crack Jacob Misiorowski?

The way people talk about Jacob Misiorowski bothers me a little. Yeah, he’s taller than almost any other starting pitcher and throws harder than literally any starting pitcher in history. He led all major league pitchers in WAR this year, and if he wins the NL Cy Young Award next month — as he’s almost universally expected to do — it will be a deserved victory. But Miz didn’t lap the field or…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-the-rays-crack-jacob-misiorowski/

#jacobmisiorowski #youngaward #war #yeah

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We Fired the BLEPH Guy By now, we imagine you have all heard ...

2026-10-23T01:48:39Z

We Fired the BLEPH Guy

By now, we imagine you have all heard about BLEPH. A few weeks ago, The Onion published an article that quoted FanGraphs contributor Derek Gardner extensively. In that article, Derek purported to be speaking on behalf of the entire analytics community in advocating for a new statistic called BLEPH. “We don’t care what it measures or how it’s calculated,” he said. “We just need something called B.L.E.P.H., and we need it now.” This is not the full truth, and we feel compelled to set the record straight.
First, we want to make it clear that Derek Gardner no longer works for FanGraphs. He was terminated for cause. Second, we take our stats seriously. We would never manufacture a new statistic just for the sake of creating a fun acronym. Because baseball analysis is already drowning in alphabet soup, we have a strict policy against creating new junk stats and acronyms unless we’re convinced that they’ll meaningfully expand the boundaries of sabermetric knowledge. We call it the Baseball Utility Terminology Threshold for Stopping Lighthearted Acronym Proliferation (BUTTSLAP).
That high standard never wavers. It’s what pushed us to publish groundbreaking research about when baseball players do the most sex, to create a metric that will help Jack Reacher avoid getting murdered, and to invent legitimate, informative statistics like OOPSY, MeatWaste, ShadowBalls, Whomps per Whiff, Tromps per Whomp, Hard-Hit Rate Hit Rate (HHRHR), Crap the Bed Rate (CTB%), and EKSTRYM+.
This rigor is, in part, the reason that BLEPH became a national story in the first place. Before we get into the specifics, though, we should explain why we’re making all this public. In recent years, we’ve been inspired to learn that when we’re honest about our vision for the site and the challenges it faces, it can inspire a sense of camaraderie in our readers. All the same, that openness hasn’t normally extended to firings.
Even if it doesn’t work out here at FanGraphs, we wouldn’t want to do anything that could keep our writers from succeeding in their future endeavors. When we decided, after a probationary period of 10 years and 3,501 articles, that Dave Cameron wasn’t a good fit for our long-term plans, we kept it quiet. We didn’t announce when we fired Jeff Sullivan out of spite for singlehandedly wrecking the sabermetrician attractiveness curve, when we got sick of looking up the right way to spell “August Fagerstrom,” or when we stripped Carson Cistulli of his CMS access for the unforgivable crime of writing like Carson Cistulli. We have watched their success working on the team side with immense pride, regardless of the fact that they just couldn’t hack it as baseball writers.
This situation is different. We regret hiring Derek Gardner and we feel compelled to say so publicly. As such, we are taking the unorthodox step of laying out in detail the reasons for his termination, and we are publishing transcripts and screenshots of his interactions with our editorial staff.
We had high hopes for Derek when we hired him as a contributor. He submitted a sparkling writing sample, and during his interview, he displayed a deep knowledge of baseball analytics. Shortly after onboarding, he pitched an idea for his first article. The topic was the pinch-hitter penalty, and it was accepted enthusiastically.
Meg Rowley: Hey Derek, we’re so excited to have you aboard! Let me know when there’s something you’d like to write about. Once it’s approved, you can claim it in the main channel.
Derek Gardner: So my idea is to have one number you can quickly check to see if the pinch-hitter would actually be an improvement over the current batter. Like a Breakeven Level Expectancy for Pinch-Hitters (BLEPH).
Meg Rowley: Heh, that sounds like a great first piece, Derek. When do you think you might have it ready?
Derek Gardner: Tomorrow.
Meg Rowley: Tomorrow it is! Can’t wait.
But Derek never wrote that article. Instead, he disappeared for three weeks before pitching an idea for an entirely new article. This next piece pertained to how the handedness of the pitcher might affect the length of a baserunner’s lead.
Meg Rowley: Hey Derek, just checking in because I haven’t heard from you in a while. Is everything ok? Do you know when you’ll have that pinch-hitting piece ready?
Derek Gardner: Hey Meg that thing was way off base. I’m working on something new. It’s gonna be about how runners on first get shorter leads off lefties, so you have to take that into account to measure lead length accurately. Baserunning Lead Equivalency by Pitcher Handedness, you know?
Meg Rowley: Wait, so would that also be called BLEPH?
Derek Gardner: huh. that’s weird
Meg Rowley: Do you know when you’ll file this one?
Derek Gardner: bleph
It quickly became a pattern. Derek would promise an article, disappear for weeks at a time, then emerge with an entirely different idea. Well, entirely different except for the BLEPH part. Derek proposed a new defensive alignment for the late innings called the Base Line Endgame Positioning Hypothesis. He pitched a way of weighting defensive miscues based on the game situation called the Bases Loaded Error Penalty Heuristic. At one point, he mixed things up by proposing a way to use Statcast’s bat tracking metrics to model home run totals: Bat Barrel Longitudinal Late/Early Evaluation Postulate for Predicting Hard-Hit Homers, or BBLLEEPPHHH.
All of these ideas were approved by our editors. But Derek never delivered any of them, and his interactions with us, his coworkers, grew fraught. When it was suggested that BLEPH might not be the best acronym for his proposed method for including run expectancy into a new pitching stat, he did not react well. (For reasons that will become clear very quickly, from this point forward we will be posting actual screenshots of Derek’s Slack messages.)
Eventually, Derek seemed to run out of ideas, or it might have been that he just ran out of words that started with B, L, E, P, and H. His pitches got weaker and weirder, and once we started rejecting them, his temper got shorter.
We learned later that when we began rejecting Derek’s odder ideas, he started looking to publish them elsewhere. This may not be a complete list, but we know that he pitched articles about BLEPH to Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, MLB.com, SABR’s Baseball Research Journal, and, for reasons we don’t fully understand, the Annals of the American Thoracic Society.
When those plans failed, it seems that Derek somehow found a way to convince The Onion not only that BLEPH was forthcoming, but that the entire analytical community was behind it. In fact, he had been terminated just the day before the article was published. This was his last communication as a FanGraphs employee.
FanGraphs would like to apologize for our part in this fiasco, and we hope you understand why we felt the need to make all this public. The sabermetric community deserves to know how it found itself reduced to caricature by no less an authority than America’s greatest news source. Our readers deserve to know that we haven’t compromised our integrity for the sake of a silly acronym.
We will attempt to learn from this mistake by overhauling our hiring procedures and instituting a best-in-class background check program. If you want to write for FanGraphs in the future, you’d better be ready to submit a writing portfolio, a long list of references, a credit history, and a whole lot of bodily fluids. Get ready to be swabbed in some intimate places.
We will also be instituting a newer, even more rigorous standard for all future statistical coinages. We were going to call it the Baseball Lexicon Enhancement Protocol Hierarchy, but now that we see that written out, we’ll probably just call it BUTTSLAP 2.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-fired-the-bleph-guy/

#derekgardner #baseball #carsoncistulli #rate #bedrate #hitrate #stoppinglighthearted #terminologythreshold #utilityterminology #acronymproliferation

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Effectively Wild Episode 2547: Both Sides of the World Series ...

2026-10-23T00:38:10Z

Effectively Wild Episode 2547: Both Sides of the World Series Story

It’s the World Series preview pod! Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about a few intriguing factors that could affect the Fall Classic and then bring on two expert reporters to break down each team’s advantages, vulnerabilities, and overlooked storylines. Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel joins first (19:59) to talk about the Brewers, followed by (1:04:49) Adam Berry of MLB.com on the Rays.
Audio intro: Gabriel-Ernest, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial 1: Austin Klewan, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial 2: Philip Bergman, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Garrett Krohn, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Link to missing Miz whiffs
Link to Baumann on Miz
Link to 2026 EW team goals
Link to Brewers preview pod
Link to Rays preview pod
Link to Ben C.’s preview
Link to FG on lefty batters
Link to MLB.com on lefty batters
Link to ZiPS odds
Link to Petriello on challenging
Link to Sheehan on rest
Link to Murphy gamers/Famers quote
Link to Curt on Bauers
Link to Brewers anthem
Link to article on anthem
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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2547-both-sides-of-the-world-series-story/

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The Same, but Also Different: Brewers vs. Rays 2026 World Series ...

2026-10-22T23:30:31Z

The Same, but Also Different: Brewers vs. Rays 2026 World Series Preview

Tomorrow night, the Milwaukee Brewers and the Tampa Bay Rays will kick off the 2026 World Series. They’ll both deploy unhittable aces to open the series, and they’ll both back them with a squad made up of speedsters, platoonable hitters, a young superstar, and relievers as far as the eye can see. To a first approximation, these teams might as well be a mirror image of each other. They’re…
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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-same-but-also-different-brewers-vs-rays-2026-world-series-preview/

#worldseries #bayrays #milwaukeebrewers #tampabay

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Short Work: A Look at This Year’s Postseason Starting Pitching ...

2026-10-22T22:20:07Z

Short Work: A Look at This Year’s Postseason Starting Pitching

The American League Championship Series between the Rays and Guardians was a study in contrasts when it came to starting pitching, particularly as the series extended. Tampa Bay’s starters lasted five or more innings in all but one of the six games, with Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta combining for three starts of at least six innings; the former went seven innings and the latter 5 1/3 in the…
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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/short-work-a-look-at-this-years-postseason-starting-pitching/

#startingpitching #americanleague #leaguechampionship #championshipseries #drewrasmussen #freddyperalta #tampabay

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Postseason Managerial Report Card: Dave Roberts If grade ...

2026-10-22T21:10:39Z

Postseason Managerial Report Card: Dave Roberts

If grade schoolers have to come home with a report card, why shouldn’t big league managers? We at FanGraphs tend to veer towards egalitarianism, and if little Liam or Daenerys can be sent to bed without Roblox or whatever it is the kids like these days, then why can’t Big Stephen or Dodger Dave? That’s why every time a postseason manager is eliminated from contention, we run down their playoff…
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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/postseason-managerial-report-card-dave-roberts-4/

#reportcard #dave #dodgerdave #bigstephen #liam #roblox #fangraphs

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Yandy Díaz Is the Most Complete Hitter in the World Series The ...

2026-10-21T19:20:43Z

Yandy Díaz Is the Most Complete Hitter in the World Series

The World Series — our annual signifier of another season smoked to its filter — is always a culmination of the sport’s beauty. Teams get rewarded for playing a winning brand of baseball all throughout October, managers are vindicated in all of the micro-decisions that got them there, and front offices can comfortably rest their heads at night knowing their systems and philosophies weren’t…
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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/yandy-diaz-is-the-most-complete-hitter-in-the-world-series/

#worldseries #completehitter #yandydiaz #october

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Peace, Love, Pinch Hits, Rainbows, and Unicorns With good reason ...

2026-10-21T18:03:03Z

Peace, Love, Pinch Hits, Rainbows, and Unicorns

With good reason the decade of Peace and Love™ has been the subject of countless books, theater productions, and documentaries. Still, there is one important detail regarding the decade that has never received its proper due. The 1960s, after all, were the only decade in which internationally minded collectors could complete Topps “rainbows” spanning the … Continue reading "Peace, Love, Pinch Hits, Rainbows, and Unicorns"

https://sabrbaseballcards.blog/2026/10/21/peace-love-rainbows-and-unicorns/

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Reds Prospect Luke Holman Has Been One of the Best Pitchers in ...

2026-10-21T15:04:47Z

Reds Prospect Luke Holman Has Been One of the Best Pitchers in the AFL

John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images
Luke Holman has been one of the top pitchers in the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League. Across three starts with the Peoria Desert Dogs, the 23-year-old right-hander in the Cincinnati Reds organization has surrendered just one run over nine innings. Moreover, he has fanned 15 batters and allowed just four hits and a lone walk. He was especially sharp on Monday. Facing a Scottsdale Scorpions lineup that included high-profile prospects Zyhir Hope, Bryce Rainer, and Nathan Flewelling, Holman breezed through four scoreless frames on 52 pitches.
Eric Longenhagen referenced the recent outing when I asked him for a snapshot of what he has seen from the Reading, Pennsylvania native, whom the Reds drafted 71st overall in 2024 out of Louisiana State University.
“He looks good,” our lead prospect analyst told me. “Glove-side command of 92-94, plus curveball in the 78-82 mph range. Attacks lefties in on their hands with fastballs and mid-80s cutter/sliders, then drops curveballs below the zone. He stretched out to four innings in his most recent start. Looks like a potential no. 4/5 to me. I want to see how he attacks second/third time through when asked to go six innings, and how his arm strength trends as he gets traction in a full-season routine.”
The erstwhile LSU Tiger, whose rotation-mates at the SEC powerhouse included Kade Anderson and Gage Jump, hasn’t had much of an opportunity to establish a routine. Holman began his professional career with a pair of effective outings in April 2025, only to have his elbow give out; Tommy John surgery cost him the remainder of the campaign. He also missed almost the entirety of this past season due to injury.
“I had a little groin thing going on,” explained Holman, who ended up making just four appearances, all in the Arizona Complex League. “The Reds wanted me to be 100% healthy, then go at it — basically be ready for the Fall League — but it wasn’t the arm. My arm actually feels as good as it’s ever felt.”
Holman’s first AFL appearance, a two-inning stint in which he allowed his lone run of the fall circuit, was on October 5 against the Salt River Rafters. Afterward, I asked Holman how he would assess the quality of his stuff relative to before his Tommy John surgery.
“The floor of my fastball velocity has gone up,” said Holman, who is currently ranked 17th in the Cincinnati system with a 40 FV. “Hopefully that keeps rising. And then my curveball feels really good. I don’t know exactly where it is metrics-wise, but I would say it’s back to where it was. The slider — it’s more of a gyro; my higher arm angle isn’t really conducive to a sweeper — needs a little bit of work, a little better shape. The splitter has also been pretty good.
“I threw three splitters today,” he said. “I needed something that goes away from a lefty. I had a really bad changeup, so I started throwing a splitter a couple years ago. It will knuckle a little bit here and there, but it’s a true splitter and has been pretty nasty for me.”
His best weapon is arguably the pitch that Eric described back in December as “a huge mid-70s rainbow curveball that looks like it is headed to the backstop and then bends into the zone.”
“I’ve had it since I was little,” Holman said of the curve. “I liked to flip it in, trying to get that good shape. Something that helped out a lot is that when I got older, I started getting good ride on my fastball and could play them off of each other. I’ve always thought of the curveball as straight down.”
As is the case with other pitchers with big curveballs, Holman has found his to be a great weapon at the top of the zone. It starts well above the zone, and when batters see it up, they decide not to swing. But then it breaks sharply downward and into the zone, resulting in a free strike. That sets up the rest of the at-bat.
“Getting it in there, showing that I can land it for strike, kind of lets me [then] do whatever I want with it,” Holman said. “I can bounce it, or throw it wherever. Because it’s got so much so much depth to it, I just have to make it look like a strike whenever I’m trying to bury it for a swing-and-miss.”
Holman is not an especially hard-thrower, so quality offspeed pitches will be important to him going forward. With that in mind, does he see himself as more of a curveballer, or a pitcher who will mix and match with his entire repertoire?
“I want to throw what I’m good at,” Holman said. “The curveball has been really good for me. Like I said earlier, the slider needs a little work right now. I leaned on that quite a bit in college, but since TJ it has been a little inconsistent. It will get better, though, as get I more innings. Ideally, I want be throwing all four of my pitches for quality strikes. Right now, it’s good to be out here, getting back to doing that.”
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/reds-prospect-luke-holman-has-been-one-of-the-best-pitchers-in-the-afl/

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How I Voted for the 2026 Fielding Bible Awards: Outfield, ...

2026-10-21T14:12:58Z

How I Voted for the 2026 Fielding Bible Awards: Outfield, Pitchers, and More

Nathan Ray Seebeck, David Banks, Mike Watters-Imagn Images
Monday, I published the first half of my ballot for this year’s Fielding Bible Awards, which will be announced at 3 PM ET tomorrow. Today, I’m going to cover my votes for the three outfield positions and pitcher, as well as the best multi-positional defenders, defensive player of the year, and defensive team of the year.
If you’re curious about the methodology I used to help guide my voting, you can read about it in Monday’s article, but here’s a quick refresher: I used a weighted blend of DRS, FRV, and DRP (the three flagship public defensive metrics), with the weights based on how well each metric did on reliability and consistency. That gave me an initial rough order at each position. From there, I used my own insights gleaned from both statistical and video deep dives on individual players, as well as the copious amounts of baseball I watched this year, to assemble my final rankings. I deferred to the defensive metrics when the gaps were big, but for close calls, I leaned heavily on my own judgment.
That’s a fair number of words, and there will be a lot more as I go through each of these positions, so let’s get right to it, starting with left field.
Left Field
1. Cody Bellinger
2. Chandler Simpson
3. Jackson Chourio
4. Ian Happ
5. Wyatt Langford
Last year, Bellinger played all over the outfield. This year, he mostly played in left, and he was pretty spectacular. He’s one of the best outfield defenders in the sport, and now that he’s playing full-time at a relatively weak position, he stood out from the pack here. He does it all: great anticipation and route-running, good speed, and a terrific throwing arm. With Steven Kwan now in center, Bellinger is the class of the position, and I didn’t seriously consider anyone else for my first place vote.
That said, were it not for Bellinger, Simpson versus Chourio would make for a great debate over who should be in the top spot. They accrue value in notably different ways and yet grade out similarly. Simpson has one of the worst throwing arms in the game, but he more than makes up for it when the ball is in the air. It’s not a shock that the fastest man in baseball covers a lot of ground, but last year, he posted poor reaction times when the ball was put in play, which really blunted the value of his speed. This year, he’s reacting faster than all but one outfielder (Jacob Young), and while that leads to some inefficient routes, he’s so fast that getting up to top speed quickly more than makes up for it. A common sight this season was Simpson throttling down into a catch that was nonetheless spectacular, because he was worried about overrunning it. The Rays didn’t put him in center, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they do in future years, and I think he’d look even better there.
Chourio isn’t quite as fast as Simpson, but he’s no slouch, either, and he’s a true five-tool player. His throwing arm isn’t as good as Bellinger’s, but it isn’t far behind. Notably, he’s never made a throwing error despite racking up a pile of outfield assists; the Brewers benefited mightily from how hard it was to take extra bases on them this year, and Chourio was a big part of that. I put Simpson ahead of him on my ballot, but ask me on a different day and I might have voted differently. I think both of these guys are amazing.
Happ seems to get a down-ballot vote from me every year, though I’ve never come close to putting him at the top of the list. To me, the three guys ahead of him here are center fielders playing out of position, while he’s more of a classic left fielder. He isn’t that fast, and he doesn’t have huge arm strength, but he maxes out his talents by getting off the ball quickly and understanding his own talents perfectly. One way I think about it: Statcast has him 199th in arm strength and sixth in run value from his arm. That’s because he holds runners on with aplomb; baserunners choose discretion over valor when the ball is hit to Happ, because they know he’s going to be quick to the ball and make an accurate throw.
Finally, Langford was good too, though certainly behind the other four guys for me. With every year he plays the outfield, his reaction times get better; he now gets comfortably above-average jumps, and he excelled coming forward and making diving or sliding catches. He had a down year with his arm, but that’s not all that important in left, so I overlooked it; broadly speaking, it’s great to see a guy who came up with a sketchy defensive reputation turn into an excellent left fielder.
Center Field
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong
2. Ceddanne Rafaela
3. Andy Pages
4. Michael Harris II
5. Evan Carter
These are the best two defenders in baseball – they just happen to play the same position. I watched a ton of both of them this year, almost exclusively for my own enjoyment. Crow-Armstrong led my blended ballot by a fair margin, and I would have put him first in any case. I think this catch was my favorite of his this year, but honestly, you could watch highlight-reel plays for days. He’s blindingly fast, gets the best jumps in the game, and just for fun, he has a great throwing arm too. I don’t quite buy FRV’s contention that he’s 10 runs better than Rafaela in center, but I do think he’s the best guy doing it right now.
Rafaela got my vote for first place last year (and won the award, for what it’s worth), and he was just as good this year. He does it all, just like Crow-Armstrong. He catches everything, and after he does, he unleashes laser beams around the diamond to keep runners glued to their bases. So why PCA in the top spot? For one thing, Crow-Armstrong had 79 plays that Statcast says are less than 90% likely to be made, and turned 65 of them into outs; Rafaela had 74 opportunities and turned 47 into outs. They both look absolutely stellar out there, and truthfully I think I might like watching Rafaela more (it’s hard to go wrong), but PCA’s season was just a standout for me.
Pages, Harris, and Carter are really good defenders. You probably know what Pages and Harris do well; they’re not new to the ranks of the league’s defensive standouts, and Pages had a highlight grab in last year’s World Series just to make sure everyone was paying attention. I put Carter on here over a range of similarly deserving options – Cedric Mullins, Jacob Young, Tristan Peters, Jackson Merrill – even though his throwing arm is a little bit short of those guys, because I was really impressed by his range; he covered for some rough right field defense by marauding over into the gap with great regularity.
Right Field
1. Wilyer Abreu
2. Corbin Carroll
3. Carson Benge
4. Seiya Suzuki
5. Victor Mesa Jr.
I had Abreu and Carroll second and third last year behind Fernando Tatis Jr., and they’ve kept up their excellent form while Tatis had a down year and also spent 400 innings at second base. You know what you’re getting with Abreu. He gets good jumps, runs fairly well at full speed, and has one of the strongest arms in baseball — it’s a classic right field skill set. I’ll also note that he plays very well in Fenway’s spacious dimensions, which seems to give him a boost in several defensive systems; I don’t have the actual guts, but it sure looks to me like Boston right field is systematically a bit over-credited. But playing your home park well matters, and even if I shade down for that, I still think his ability to deter baserunner advancement has him ahead of Carroll.
Speaking of, Carroll has a below-average arm, but that’s the end of the list of his weaknesses in the field. He makes incredible use of his sterling top-end speed by taking off like he was shot out of a cannon at the crack of the bat. His routes aren’t perfect, but that’s by design; he just gets up to full speed as soon as possible and curls his way to the ball. It adds up to highlight reel catches by the boatload, but it also results in a lot of catches that don’t even look impressive because he happened to read them well and starts so quickly. If these guys played left, I’d vote for Carroll, but people run on him a lot, and Abreu is just so good there that I couldn’t get that out of my mind as I voted.
Benge was awesome in his rookie year, and I bet he’ll end up winning this award a few times before all is said and done. He already has the arm talent you’d expect from an elite right fielder, and he’s fast and instinctive enough to play center. Give him a few more reps to round the edges off, and he’s going to be a monster out there. I had to think long and hard about how to order him and Suzuki, who has better defensive metrics across the board. They were pretty close, though, and I just can’t quite get behind the numbers on Suzuki. I don’t think he’s bad by any stretch, but even after watching a bunch of highlights and diving into his metrics in great detail, he seems like an average fielder aside from his arm value. He did rack up a pile of outfield assists this year, and ultimately I think he was the fourth-best right fielder in baseball, but I just couldn’t place him ahead of Benge, who basically seems like an upgraded version of the same skill set to me.
Before Mesa turned heads during the playoffs, he was a defensive terror in the regular season. I almost didn’t believe the stats at first, because he barely logged 500 innings in the field, but on a per-inning basis, he was the best right fielder in baseball by a huge margin. Still, I didn’t feel comfortable placing him first in the same way I had Matt Chapman first at third base after a stellar performance in limited innings. I’m just less confident that the models are evaluating Mesa correctly; he doesn’t have a decade of corroborating evidence like Chapman. But he definitely passes the eye test, his arm is certifiably elite, and I think it’d be a mistake to leave him off the ballot entirely just because he wasn’t in the big leagues at the start of the year.
Pitcher
1. Tanner Bibee
2. Shota Imanaga
3. Michael McGreevy
4. Brent Suter
5. Seth Lugo
This is the position where I feel the least confident in my selections, because there just aren’t that many opportunities to observe pitcher defense; they don’t field all that many innings, and they don’t field all that many opportunities per inning. To compensate for this, I relied heavily on Statcast’s measurement of how well pitchers controlled the running game. Keeping runners stationary doesn’t show up in highlights, but given how rarely pitchers actually field their position, it struck me as the correct skill to reward here. I did give consideration to pitchers who also seem to field their position well, but you won’t find any pitchers on this list who are easy to run on.
So where does that leave us? Bibee, Imanaga, and McGreevy tied for first in preventing runner advancements, and Bibee had the best DRS and also looked the best on the mound, so he got my tie-breaking vote. Suter and Lugo are both excellent at shutting down runners and also graded out well by DRS in other aspects of fielding, so they place as well. I don’t want to pretend like I did a lot more than that here.
Multi-Position Defender
1. Nasim Nuñez
2. Zach McKinstry
3. Joey Ortiz
4. José Caballero
5. Steven Kwan
This was a really tough ballot, because many of the defenders who I’d be comfortable voting for at a single position bopped around the diamond this year. I wouldn’t hate any ordering of these five, who all demonstrated elite defense at important positions. But I had to pick one guy for the top spot, and after a lot of hemming and hawing, I settled on Nuñez, who started the season as Washington’s everyday second baseman but eventually took over at shortstop when the Nats decided that CJ Abrams wasn’t a long-term fit for the position. He does it all, with sure hands, good range, and a sneaky-strong throwing arm for someone his size. He switched positions mid-year without much warning and acquitted himself well. It’s a testament to how much the Nats think of Nuñez’s glove that he racked up 493 plate appearances with a .535 OPS; he was just that good in the field.
Ortiz and Caballero both had very similar cases. They were elite defenders on the left side of the infield who flipped back between third and short throughout the year. Caballero also played the outfield a bit, but not well, so I didn’t give him any bonus credit for that. I think they’d both contend for a Fielding Bible Award with a full season of work at third base, though I don’t think that either of them (or Nuñez) would get my top vote at shortstop. I picked Nuñez over these two because he played the most innings in the field, with very similar per-inning numbers, but I think Ortiz is the strongest defender in the long run.
My second place vote didn’t go to either of those guys, though; it went to McKinstry, who is probably the favorite for this award since he was a true Swiss Army knife this year, with plus defense in 500 infield innings and 500 outfield innings. His huge throwing arm made him a fearsome right field weapon, and he also acquitted himself well at second base and shortstop, allowing the Tigers to fit different personnel groups onto the field depending on their day-to-day needs. If I were more confident in his outfield defense, I’d have had him in first place, but I just couldn’t convince myself of his range (I have no questions about the throwing arm, to be clear).
Finally, Kwan probably played himself out of the award in left field by being good enough to play center, but he didn’t quite hit the bar that the top four did here. I do think he was the best multi-positional outfielder in the league this year, which is why he’s in my top five as the player whose skill set differs from the other four by quite a bit.
Defensive Player of the Year
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong
2. Ceddanne Rafaela
3. Dillon Dingler
As I mentioned in the center field section, Crow-Armstrong and Rafaela were the two best defenders in baseball this year. It’s difficult to evaluate infielders relative to outfielders, and that’s without getting into catcher defense, but I feel strongly that PCA and Rafaela were more valuable to their teams than anyone else on the ballot. The eye test would surely agree with me; I saw more highlights from these two than the rest of these guys put together. I don’t need to keep belaboring the point; PCA and Rafaela played out of their minds this year, and it was a joy to watch.
I gave the last spot on my ballot to Dingler, who was clearly the best defender at the most important defensive position. I didn’t think that his level rose to that of the two center fielders, but in a year that had slightly less incandescent defense on the grass, I would have been happy placing Dingler first on the ballot. He’s both excellent and well-rounded, just what I like in my elite defensive catchers. But this wasn’t his year; Crow-Armstrong and Rafaela were so good that Dingler was always playing for third in my mind. I gave some consideration to Brice Turang and Masyn Winn, my top selections at the other up-the-middle defensive positions, as well, but Dingler finished a hair ahead of them for me.
Defensive Team of the Year
1. Tampa Bay Rays
2. Chicago Cubs
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
This award debuted last year, and I’m still not entirely settled on how to determine a winner. Is it the team with the most good defenders? The team that puts their defenders in the best positions to succeed? Some blend? Should we give extra credit for synergy between teammates? Is that even measurable? I ended up choosing based on a blend of what the various defensive systems said, how teams did at turning batted balls into outs, and, well, vibes. I considered to what degree I felt like I was watching an elite defense when I watched each team, for lack of a better way to put it.
That led me to put the Rays in the top spot. I can’t get enough of their skilled outfield group, with four different plus defenders rotating around and generally turning opponents’ fly balls into outs at a ludicrous clip. I enjoyed their three-way split in catcher playing time between three backstops I think are pretty good. I thought Taylor

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-i-voted-for-the-2026-fielding-bible-awards-outfield-pitchers-and-more/

#bibleawards #fieldingbible #outfield #davidbanks #pitchers #bellinger #imagesmonday #simpson #rayseebeck #chourio

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Effectively Wild Episode 2546: A Pennant for Your Thoughts Ben ...

2026-10-21T06:36:04Z

Effectively Wild Episode 2546: A Pennant for Your Thoughts

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley tease their next playoff livestream and discuss “Chalktober,” the end of the ALCS, Chandler Simpson’s (and Ben’s) calves, Ben’s quickly defused feud with FanGraphs, and hirings/non-firings. Then (1:00:53) they bring back fan-favorite (and host-favorite) guest Adrian Chiles—BBC host, Guardian columnist, and Effectively Wild UK correspondent—to talk about his beloved Rays’ run to the World Series, how he’s followed their exploits despite a several-hour time difference, his musings about the excitement/misery of playoff baseball, and more.
Audio intro: Grant Brisbee, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio interstitial: Dave Armstrong and Mike Murray, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Guy Russo, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Link to “chalk” definition
Link to Palpatine clip
Link to Seinfeld clip
Link to Yandy clip
Link to Smith quote
Link to Langs on Caminero
Link to other Caminero fact
Link to Vogt on Bibee
Link to Yandy non-challenge
Link to Rays postseason history
Link to Petriello appearance
Link to Family Guy clip
Link to horse gait wiki
Link to Clemens on ALCS G6
Link to Andrews on Simpson
Link to Meg on Lind
Link to Vogt/Arnerich article
Link to MLBTR on Boone
Link to MLBTR on Banner
Link to MLBTR on Smith
Link to Hogg on Bauers
Link to FG zombie graphic
Link to FG ghost graphic
Link to Adrian’s first EW spot
Link to Adrian on the Rays
Link to Adrian on Wikipedia
Link to @TBRaysUK
Link to “place hitter” definition
Link to “hit ’em where they ain’t”
Link to Adrian on golf
Link to Adrian’s Guardian archive
Link to Adrian’s The Tablet archive
Link to Adrian’s BBC archive
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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2546-a-pennant-for-your-thoughts/

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Aaron Ashby Is Creating Bullets for the Brewers Runs are hard to ...

2026-10-20T19:01:30Z

Aaron Ashby Is Creating Bullets for the Brewers

Runs are hard to come by during the postseason, in part because of the outsized impact of cooler weather and overpowering relief pitching. So far this fall, no pitcher has done a better job of keeping runs off the board than Aaron Ashby. Working in a multi-inning role that recalls a bygone era of bullpen firemen, the 28-year-old lefty has delivered 12 1/3 scoreless innings for the Brewers thus…
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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/aaron-ashby-is-creating-bullets-for-the-brewers/

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Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat 10-20 Source ...

2026-10-20T18:12:49Z

Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat 10-20

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brendan-gawlowski-prospects-chat-10-20/

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Chandler Simpson Could Be the King of Competitive Runs Nathan Ray ...

2026-10-20T17:19:19Z

Chandler Simpson Could Be the King of Competitive Runs

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
A couple years ago, I wrote an article about Amed Rosario. Rosario was just coming off the best season of his career, a 3.1-WAR 2022 campaign in which he’d posted a 104 wRC+ and manned shortstop for the Guardians. He’d led the majors with nine triples, but I was interested in another category where he’d not only led the league but also left everyone else in his dust. Statcast credited Rosario with 369 competitive runs. That was nearly 70 more than any other player in 2022, and it’s still the highest single-season total ever recorded.
As there’s no reason for you to remember what a competitive run is, let’s start with a refresher. In order for Statcast to do a good job of measuring a player’s average sprint speed, it needs to pick the right plays, when they’ll be running hard and reaching their maximum speed. If you hit a routine groundout to the shortstop and run down the baseline at a businesslike 80%, that’s not really a reflection of your top speed. You’re not running competitively. Statcast only assesses sprint speed on plays where a batter is running to first after a “topped” or “weakly hit” ball, or plays where they run two or more bases (except when they score from second on an extra-base hit). Those are competitive runs, and I’m going to quote from my old article to explain why I think they’re worth writing about:
I don’t know about you, but I think this is incredibly fun. Competitive runs is an incidental statistic. It’s just scaffolding for another stat, but there’s one person who plays baseball like competitive runs is his own personal pinball machine. The other reason I love it is that even though competitive runs exists only to serve a higher master, it’s still a descriptive stat in its own right. A player’s competitive runs total tells you plenty about the way they play the game.
In order to lead the league in competitive runs, you need to put the ball in play a lot, which means no striking out and, to a lesser extent, limited walking. You need to hit the ball weakly and on the ground, but you also need to reach base a lot so that you can make all those first-to-thirds and second-to-homes. Your offensive game needs to revolve around speed and ground-based contact. I’ve left out one other prerequisite, but already, it’s starting to sound like I’m describing one player in particular, right?
A month ago, I broke down Chandler Simpson’s swing in some detail, because it is truly unique. There is no one else who hits like Simpson. He’s got the fastest home-to-first time in baseball, and his swing is designed specifically to put the ball in play on the ground. He puts less of his body into his swing than anyone else, which obliterates his power but makes his swing supremely adjustable. Because he swings so slowly and has one of the flattest hacks in baseball, his bat stays in the hitting zone and on plane with the baseball forever. It’s the reason he can put up the third-highest contact rate in baseball and the reason he never hits it in the air. Some players come to the plate focused on putting the ball in the air. More think about hitting a line drive. Simpson is explicitly thinking “low line drive, hard groundballs.”
Simpson has spent the playoffs showing a national audience what he’s capable of: laying down picture perfect bunts, stealing bags, running down fly balls, and forcing opposing infielders to hurry themselves into errors. Even more than Rosario’s in 2022, Simpson’s game seems like it was designed in a lab to maximize competitive runs. His entire approach is focused on giving him opportunities to showcase his legs, and he’s been so successful at it that he led the AL in steals and came close to winning a batting title. It should come as no surprise that he led baseball with 359 competitive runs this season. But earlier I mentioned that I’d intentionally omitted one of the prerequisites for leading the league in competitive runs. It’s the reason that Rosario still holds the single-season record rather than Simpson. Here’s the single-season leaderboard for competitive runs.
Single-Season Competitive Runs Leaders
Year
Player
Competitive Runs
PA
AVG Batting Position
2022
Amed Rosario
369
670
2.5
2017
Dee Strange-Gordon
369
695
1.3
2015
Ben Revere
368
634
2.3
2026
Chandler Simpson
359
612
4.2
2017
Elvis Andrus
348
689
2.8
2016
Mookie Betts
344
730
1.8
2017
Jose Altuve
343
662
2.7
2016
Jean Segura
342
694
1.1
2016
Adam Eaton
342
706
1.3
2017
DJ LeMahieu
341
682
2.0
Source: Baseball Savant
Simpson ranks fourth, even though everyone else on the list got way more plate appearances than he did. The prerequisite I left out is that you need to be a good enough hitter (or play on a bad enough team) to play everyday and hit at the very top of the lineup. Competitive runs is a counting stat, after all. All of the other players on this list spent at least a plurality of their time batting first or second. Simpson made a plurality of his plate appearances in the five hole, and he spent nearly as much time batting sixth as he did in the leadoff spot. That has cost him a significant number of plate appearances. The meritocratic tyranny of the batting order is very real. Awhile back I calculated that even if they never got pinch-hit for, it would take an average nine-hole hitter 26 more games than the leadoff hitter to qualify for the batting title. That’s why the nerds have succeeded in getting nearly every team to move its best hitter into the two-hole.
To be clear, Simpson isn’t blameless here. The Rays sometimes sit him when facing lefties because he has just a 76 wRC+ against them across his two years in the majors. He ran an overall wRC+ of 93 this season. If he’d been at 104, as Rosario was in 2022, he likely would’ve spent the whole season batting leadoff. Because the Rays had one of the league’s better offenses, he would’ve gotten up over 700 plate appearances, and he would’ve outrun the competitive run competition. If we turn competitive runs into a rate stat, Simpson would be first on that list rather than fourth. He averaged 0.59 competitive runs per plate appearance. When he comes to the plate, there’s a nearly 60% chance that you’ll get to see him running full tilt.
The good news is that Simpson is still in just his second year in the majors. We can’t guarantee that he’ll continue to improve at the plate, but he’s 25 and has plenty of time to keep developing. As Baseball America’s JJ Cooper has noted, Simpson wasn’t just going for a batting title this year; he was trying to become the first player ever to win one in college, the minors, and the majors. Because his speed adds so much value to his overall offensive profile, he wouldn’t need to improve all that much at the plate to have an undeniable case as Tampa’s everyday leadoff man. Simpson just notched the fourth-highest competitive runs total ever recorded while spending most of his time batting fifth and sixth. If he does ever spend a whole season in the leadoff spot, he’s going to blow the doors off Rosario and everybody else on that list.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chandler-simpson-could-be-the-king-of-competitive-runs/

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White Sox Prospect Caleb Bonemer Profiles as a Slugger Rick ...

2026-10-20T15:33:02Z

White Sox Prospect Caleb Bonemer Profiles as a Slugger

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Caleb Bonemer produced a plethora of power in 2026. Splitting the season between High-A Winston Salem and Double-A Birmingham, the 21-year-old (as of earlier this month) slugger slammed 37 round-trippers while logging a .251/.380/.550 slash line over 595 plate appearances. His home run total was tops in the Chicago White Sox organization, as was his 139 wRC+.
Bonemer has continued to punish pitchers in the Arizona Fall League — his desert ledger includes four doubles, a triple, and a pair of dingers among his 11 hits in 39 at-bats — but his right-handed stroke isn’t why he is suiting up for the Glendale Desert Dogs. Positioned almost exclusively on the left side of the infield since being selected in the second round of the 2024 draft out of an Okemos, Michigan high school, Bonemer is being given a look in the outfield. I asked him about the move off of the diamond on AFL Media Day.
“I’m getting a lot of questions about that,” replied Bonemer, whose positional tryout has since comprised six games in center field, two in left field, and one in right field, this after playing just nine professional games on the grass previously. “The White Sox told me they want to see what I can do out there. I haven’t really played the outfield, so they want me to get more reps, more games under my belt.”
Regardless of where he ultimately ends up playing, his ability to belt baseballs is what has him bound for Chicago’s South Side. Currently ranked 95th on The Board and second in the White Sox system as a 50-FV prospect, Bonemer has been described by James Fegan as a hitter who produces high-end exit velocities, with an affinity for elevating balls to the pull side.
Brendan Gawlowski’s recent AFL position player scouting notebook also bears noting. His look largely echoes James’ earlier reports.
“Bonemer’s swing doesn’t light me up,” Brendan wrote. “His hands fire from a dead stop, and his swing path is long and stiff. But while it isn’t pretty, he squares the ball up an awful lot, hitting three balls 104 mph or harder across the few games I watched him. He could have plus-plus raw at maturity, and even if he winds up being a flawed hitter, he has enough power and barrel feel to be dangerous.”
Aware of previous reports that referred to his swing mechanics as being atypical, I did my due diligence and solicited the promising youngster’s opinion. Does he agree? Moreover, does it really matter?
“A lot of people have said that I’m kind of robotic — I guess that would be the term — but I’ve always kind of had what you’d call a stiffer setup,” Bonemer responded. “I’ve always been a stiffer mover. I’ve never had a big rhythmic or loose swing. What I’ve had is a style that is kind of still and simple. At the same time, I’m always looking to get better. I’ve worked with different people, different coaches, to where I’m kind of melding what I’ve learned into the load and swing that I naturally have.”
“I’ve definitely made some adjustments from when I initially signed to now,” he went on to say. “But really, I think the biggest thing is that I’m just bigger and stronger. That has helped me a lot with the power numbers this year. Mechanically, the changes have been pretty small. In a lot of ways, I still am who I am.”
Based on his ability to propel baseballs over the outfield fences — you don’t go deep 37 times by accident — Bonemer profiles as a power hitter. I asked him for his opinion on that as well.
“Am I a power hitter? Going off of this year, yeah,” agreed Bonemer, who is listed at 6-foot-1 and 195 pounds. “Growing up, I was more of… not a contact guy, but more of an all-around type of hitter. But now, I’m more of a power guy. So yes, I would say that I’m a power hitter.”
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/white-sox-prospect-caleb-bonemer-profiles-as-a-slugger/

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Undeniable: Rays Strike Early and Late To Advance to World Series ...

2026-10-20T05:32:19Z

Undeniable: Rays Strike Early and Late To Advance to World Series

After a dominant run through the American League East this year, the Tampa Bay Rays have punched their ticket to the World Series. Down 2-1 in the ALCS, they reeled off two straight wins in Cleveland over the weekend to take a 3-2 lead back home. And with a chance to put the series away, following a wild weekend of rain, rescheduling, and bullpen games as far as the eye could see, the Rays rose…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/undeniable-rays-strike-early-and-late-to-advance-to-world-series/

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Members-Only Game Thread: ALCS – Oct 19, 2026 Welcome to our ...

2026-10-20T00:40:03Z

Members-Only Game Thread: ALCS – Oct 19, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the ALCS game today. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/members-only-game-thread-alcs-oct-19-2026/

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What’s the Guardians’ Hard-Hit Rate Hit Rate? If you’ve ...

2026-10-19T19:42:40Z

What’s the Guardians’ Hard-Hit Rate Hit Rate?

If you’ve been following the postseason closely, you probably know why every Guardians player celebrates a single by turning to their dugout and flashing their teammates a thumbs down. “When a Guardians hitter notches a single, he stands on first base, peers toward the dugout and flashes either two thumbs up or two thumbs down, depending on how hard he struck the ball.” That’s how The Athletic’s…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/whats-the-guardians-hard-hit-rate-hit-rate/

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Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 10/19/26 Source ...

2026-10-19T18:25:42Z

Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 10/19/26

Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ben-clemens-fangraphs-chat-10-19-26/

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African American Football Trailblazers The rule that shapes this ...

2026-10-19T18:01:21Z

African American Football Trailblazers

The rule that shapes this run My interests include history, sports, and my African American heritage. I also enjoy reconnecting with the feeling of my youth through collecting sports cards. I thoroughly enjoyed building a collecting run of the 87 Negro League players who also played in the major leagues. For 86 of those 87, … Continue reading "African American Football Trailblazers"

https://sabrbaseballcards.blog/2026/10/18/african-american-football-trailblazers/

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How I Voted for the 2026 Fielding Bible Awards: Infield Troy ...

2026-10-19T17:37:48Z

How I Voted for the 2026 Fielding Bible Awards: Infield

Troy Taormina and Michael McLoone, Imagn Images
For the third consecutive year, I voted for the Fielding Bible Awards, Sports Info Solutions’ annual recognition of the best defenders in major league baseball. They’re a Gold Glove equivalent for the majors as a whole, created by SIS and John Dewan in 2006. A panel of video scouts and baseball experts vote for five players at each spot; there are also awards for the best multi-position defender, the defensive player of the year, and the defensive team of the year. The awards will be released this Thursday, October 22, and this article will be updated to note the winners once they’re announced.
Voting for any award is a prestigious honor, and voting on this panel has great personal import to me. Over the years, the panelists have included basically every writer who got me into baseball statistics when I was younger. Bill James, Peter Gammons, the founder of Strat-o-Matic – you get the idea. It’s a group I’m honored to be a part of, and I take my voting responsibilities very seriously. To that end, I spent some time this year updating my previous voting methods. Let me walk you through it.
Earlier this year, MLB Senior Data Architect Tom Tango did some work on blending multiple defensive systems together. I had actually landed on a similar method after discussing my inaugural ballot with Tom two years ago, but there’s never a bad time for a refresh. I started with Tom’s approach, added in Baseball Prospectus’ DRP as an additional number, and created blends for each position group based on how well each metric tracked itself year-to-year, as well as how well it predicted other metrics from one year to the next. Of note, I moved around my infield weights a bit, increasing the importance of DRS; it has narrowly been the best metric in the post-shift-ban world, a change in defensive rules meaningful enough for me to strongly prefer sampling from it for my initial rankings.
That blended rank gave me an preliminary order for each position. From there, I used my own expertise and judgment to move players up or down the list. I tried to have a light touch here; regardless of what vibes or the eye test say, I’m not putting Jose Altuve on my second base ballot when the models say he’s the worst defensive second baseman in the league, though admittedly he was also pretty bad by the eye test. I considered past defensive value because single-season defensive statistics are noisy, but I only used that as a tiebreaker; I’m voting for the players who played the best defense this year, not the players who have been the best recently.
As I note every year, I think this process does a good job of combining the best information that publicly available defensive systems can produce with a critical, evidence-focused eye on the game. I watch a ton of baseball, and I also spend quite a bit of time thinking about both how to measure player skill and the limits of doing so. I’m just talking my own book here, but I really do believe this is the best way I can determine who played the best defense in the majors this season. So without further ado, let’s look at my infield ballot.
Catcher
1. Dillon Dingler
2. Joe Mack
3. Brandon Valenzuela
4. Luis Torrens
5. Adley Rutschman
A tip of the cap to Patrick Bailey, who I voted for in both previous editions of this award, but he wasn’t one of the best defensive catchers in baseball this year. Dingler was the clear top guy for me, and the models thought so too. He was head and shoulders above the field statistically, and watching him play is basically an instruction manual for good fundamental defense. He’s a wonderful blocker and also controls the running game well thanks to a huge throwing arm. He’s mastered the new-school art of tailing his throws towards first base to give fielders a good tagging lane. How afraid of Dingler are opposing baserunners? They ran on him about as many times in 995 innings as they ran on his backups in 400 fewer innings of work. Oh, and he was the best receiver in baseball this year for good measure. Does that sound like something you might be interested in?
Mack was a pleasant surprise for me this season. I didn’t know a lot about him before his debut, but he put on a show throwing down to second base; he led baseball in the number of runners he threw out while stealing despite only playing 783 innings behind the plate. He threw them out at a high rate, too, despite some lackluster work holding runners on by the Marlins pitching staff. Mack also blocks and receives well – there are a lot of good defensive catchers these days – but his command of the running game is the skill that earned him my vote here. Valenzuela was nearly as good throwing despite similarly little help from his pitchers, and he was a great receiver to boot. But he looks awkward blocking balls in the dirt at times, which pushed him behind the two well-rounded catchers at the top of the list.
Finally, Torrens and Rutschman are squarely behind that top trio for me, but they both deserve some recognition for having very solid defensive seasons. Torrens has been great for a few years now, while Rutschman bounced back after a few lackluster seasons behind the plate, but both of them are good across the board. They’re each in the top 10 of Statcast’s blocking, throwing, and receiving leaderboards, which shows off their well-rounded game, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see one of them win the award next year because they don’t have many holes in their game.
First Base
1. Matt Olson
2. Ty France
3. Christian Walker
4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
5. TJ Rumfield
This was a two-way race at the top for me, and I went back and forth for a while before settling on Olson. He’s a prototypical first baseman – huge, rangy, surehanded, and even bats lefty, if you’re into that kind of thing. He also plays a ton of innings. He’s the platonic ideal of a first baseman, in other words, and he played up to his usual standard this year. The systems love him. The eye test loves him. I clearly love him – I had him first last year as well.
This year, though, I at least had to think about it. France was a worthy contender for the top spot. For the second season in a row, he’s been stellar at first, and despite being short for the position, he’s one of the best in the game at scooping errant throws. He’s also incredibly rangy, and he made a lot of good plays charging bunts and weakly-hit balls this year. Spectacular work from a guy whose defense was once a weakness.
Walker’s best defensive days might be behind him, but a decline from his formidable peak still leaves him as one of the best in the business. I went back and forth on putting Guerrero on here because this is the first year he’s graded out as a good defender and the eye test is mixed, but this was about as low as I felt I could put him given the numbers. Finally, Rumfield is another entry in the hulking and rangy first baseman category, and I really enjoyed watching him corral errant throws, particularly high ones, from the left side of the infield all year.
Second Base
1. Brice Turang
2. JJ Wetherholt
3. Brandon Lowe
4. Nasim Nuñez
5. Nico Hoerner
Second base is stacked at the moment. Four of the five guys on this list would be above-average shortstops, though I think they’re even better suited for the keystone. Turang is the poster boy for this; his throwing arm is unremarkable at second base and might be a little light for shortstop, but that just doesn’t matter much given the way he’s deployed. He’s comically rangy, combining a great first step with blistering acceleration that makes it seem like he knew where the ball was going before the bat did. He’s particularly good charging to his left and making off-platform throws to first, but honestly, he’s just good at everything. I would have put him in the top spot even if my blended leaderboard didn’t have him first, but it does; per the computers, he’s first by a fair margin.
Wetherholt was a clear second for me. Most of what I said about Turang is true of him as well. He briefly shifted over to short when Masyn Winn was injured, but he’s better suited for second, where his range and instincts combine to make up for middling arm strength. I’d suggest watching him play if you haven’t. It’s smooth, soothing almost; he’s never in a hurry, but he’s always on time, regardless of where he needs to end up. He’s particularly adept at plays where he loses sight of first base and has to re-establish it before throwing; that’s a tough play for most second basemen, but he seems to have eyes in the back of his head at times.
I watched more clips of Lowe’s fielding than any other player on the ballot because I considered him a poor defender for most of his tenure in Tampa Bay. But the tape says the same thing as all three of the systems I used: At least in 2026, he was just great. I couldn’t perceive his limited range very much, because he was making tough plays in all directions regularly. Could a bunny hop really make all that difference? I’m skeptical, but it sure seems to have helped a lot, and perhaps Lowe just needed a little more range to make his sure hands sing. It’s a good reminder that the Rays don’t have a monopoly on helping players improve; they’re famous for their development, but sometimes a guy just needs to hear new voices. Finally, Nuñez and Hoerner are conventionally great, and I’ll have more on Nuñez in part two of this ballot. If you like watching elite defenders, check those two out. Hoerner won this award last year and could easily do so next year; the competition is just very tough at the moment.
Shortstop
1. Masyn Winn
2. Taylor Walls
3. Bobby Witt Jr.
4. Geraldo Perdomo
5. Dansby Swanson
I’m quite confident that I don’t have any team bias in my evaluation of baseball, but I’ll readily admit that I have a bias towards shortstops with cannon arms, a byproduct of watching reels of Andrelton Simmons highlights when I was younger. Winn is Simmons’ spiritual successor; he might not have the ridiculous range and seeming precognition that Simmons showed at his best, but he too warps the way shortstop defense works, because timing changes when you can throw this hard. Plays that just aren’t possible for most shortstops open up for Winn. His internal clock can run a little slower than everyone else’s because the force of his throws shaves fractions of a second off of the time between when he releases the ball and the first baseman catches it. It shows up in his ability to charge and gather before throwing on weakly hit balls, and also in his ability to turn double plays; the Cardinals get plenty of extra outs every year because Winn just muscles the ball over so much faster than every other shortstop.
Walls has a polarizing case, and it’s one that drives home the importance of getting multiple perspectives. DRS thinks he’s the best shortstop in the game by some distance. DRP thinks he’s the best by a hair. FRV thinks he’s below average. I come down closer to “he’s elite,” and I think there’s something interesting in the FRV numbers. Walls converts chances into outs at a higher rate than any other shortstop in baseball. But FRV also thinks he has the easiest chances in baseball, which is why they have him as basically average. I guess I’m just willing to give him more credit for “converts the most chances” even though it’s definitely true that not all plays are created equal. In any case, the reason I collect and blend a ton of metrics is because they won’t always agree, and in my raw rankings, Walls was a hair behind Winn and solidly ahead of Witt in third. Speaking of, Witt is obviously great too, in a way that I imagine I don’t need to explain too much; he’s fast, smart, and strong-armed.
Perdomo and Swanson are longtime good defenders who both had good seasons this year, but they aren’t capable of the same incandescent brilliance as that top trio. I also considered Andrés Giménez, Otto Lopez, and Mookie Betts for this spot; they’re all in the same tier as Perdomo and Swanson for me. I’d be happy to have any of them as my shortstop, and I bet they’d all contend for the top spot if they shifted down to second base, but right now, the three W’s of Winn, Walls, and Witt are head and shoulders above the rest.
Third Base
1. Matt Chapman
2. Alex Bregman
3. Caleb Durbin
4. Maikel Garcia
5. Brooks Lee
I might be the only person with Chapman in first place on my ballot, because he only played roughly half a season this year. But what a magnificent half season it was! Chapman is one of the greatest third base defenders of the 21st century, and he played like it when he was on the field this year. I wouldn’t exactly call Chapman a graceful defender, but he uses his physical talents to the utmost. He has a big arm and he’s very quick, which means he gets to the ball quickly and recovers well even if he can’t field it instantly and cleanly. To be fair, he does usually field it instantly and cleanly – he just can get outs even if things go wrong. That kind of burly defense had him first in DRS this year despite a huge innings deficit on the rest of the leaders, and in terms of per-inning value, he was head and shoulders above the rest of the field, a defensive titan limited to fewer innings than normal.
I was impressed enough by Chapman’s form to rank him first despite his paltry innings total, but Bregman and Durbin were great in their own right. They’re actually very similar defenders, and I expect one of the two of them to win the award this year. They have relatively modest throwing arms for third, but they’re elite all-around defenders who simply play themselves into positions where they have enough strength for their throws. It’s no coincidence that both of them are capable of playing other infield spots. All three defensive systems love them both; in fact, by my blend, the top three fielders here were in a statistical tie for first place, and I would hardly blame anyone for voting for Bregman or Durbin.
Garcia got my fourth place vote for turning in a lesser version of Chapman’s season. He’s inarguably elite, and a strong contender for this award in every full season he plays, but he missed half of the 2026 season, which left him short on counting stats. He’s a great defender, but he didn’t blow me away like Chapman did, hence his lower placement. Lee excelled after the Twins slid him over from shortstop. He struggled moving to his right and throwing against the grain, but that’s not really an issue at third. He looks much better to me when the play is in front of him, and he made a ton of tough charging plays in addition to showing great range when leaving his feet, a skill that’s most important at third. I’m extremely excited to see how he does next year with a whole offseason of practice at a spot where he already looks solid.
Later this week, I’ll go through my outfielder, pitcher, multi-positional defender, defensive player of the year, and defensive team of the year votes. I hope you’ve enjoyed reading about the first half of my ballot as much as I enjoyed filling it out.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-i-voted-for-the-2026-fielding-bible-awards-infield/

#fieldingbible #bibleawards #infield #baseball #imagnimages #sportsinfo #voting #tom #goldglove #johndewan

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Job Posting: St. Louis Cardinals – Major League Strategy Fellow ...

2026-10-19T16:47:49Z

Job Posting: St. Louis Cardinals – Major League Strategy Fellow

Direct link to application (please see job details below):
Major League Strategy Fellow
Major League Strategy Fellow
Job Summary:
This role will support the St. Louis Cardinals Major League team through baseball research, statistical analysis, strategic modeling, and the development of analytical tools and reports. Working closely with the Manager of Major League Strategy, this position will help identify opportunities to improve baseball decision-making, evaluate existing strategies, and develop new analytical capabilities supporting the Major League club. This role will collaborate with Major League Strategy personnel, coaches, and Baseball Development staff to translate research and data into practical baseball applications. The position will be based primarily in St. Louis and will be expected to work on the Major League team’s schedule throughout the season, including Spring Training, evenings, weekends, and holidays as needed.
Job Duties:
Conduct baseball research and statistical analysis to support Major League game preparation, in-game strategy, player evaluation, and broader baseball decision-making
Develop, maintain, and improve analytical models and tools that inform Major League game strategy and baseball operations
Work with the Manager of Major League Strategy to identify, prioritize, and investigate research questions with potential Major League applications
Analyze player and team performance trends to identify actionable insights, evaluate strategic opportunities, and support continuous improvement
Develop and improve automated reports, data visualizations, and analytical applications that support Major League coaches, players, and staff
Collaborate with Major League Strategy personnel to integrate analytical findings into advance scouting, game preparation, and player support workflows
Design and conduct rigorous analyses to evaluate baseball strategies, validate analytical models, and assess the effectiveness of implemented initiatives
Collaborate with Baseball Development and other baseball operations personnel on research, modeling, technology, and analytical initiatives supporting the Major League club
Learn and operate certain baseball technology and video systems as necessary
Experience Required:
Strong analytical and quantitative problem-solving skills, with the ability to independently investigate complex baseball questions
Proficiency in SQL and at least one analytical programming language, such as Python or R, with experience developing reproducible analyses and statistical models
Strong understanding of statistical inference, model validation, and the limitations of observational baseball data
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Strong understanding of baseball decision-making and the ability to frame baseball questions as rigorous analytical problems
Experience working with modern baseball data, including ball-tracking and player-tracking information
Ability to develop clear, accessible data visualizations, reports, and analytical tools
Strong attention to detail, intellectual curiosity, sound judgment, and a willingness to challenge and refine existing assumptions
Ability to manage independent research projects while responding effectively to time-sensitive Major League requests
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Experience conducting original baseball research or developing statistical models is preferred
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The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the St. Louis Cardinals.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/job-posting-st-louis-cardinals-major-league-strategy-fellow/

#majorleague #leaguestrategy #strategyfellow #louiscardinals #baseball #job #baseballdevelopment #jobsummary #strong #jobduties

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After Forcing Messick Into an Early Exit, Rays Take 3-2 ALCS Lead ...

2026-10-19T05:07:25Z

After Forcing Messick Into an Early Exit, Rays Take 3-2 ALCS Lead

The Tampa Bay Rays are one win away from their third trip to the World Series. After pulling away from the Cleveland Guardians late in Game 4 for a 7-3 victory, the Rays scored a run in each of the first three innings of Game 5. While they left six men on base over that span, they forced Guardians ace Parker Messick to work so hard that he lasted just two innings, and because the game remained…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/after-forcing-messick-into-an-early-exit-rays-take-3-2-alcs-lead/

#parkermessick #bayrays #worldseries #tampabay #game #clevelandguardians

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Members-Only Game Thread: ALCS – Oct 18, 2026 Welcome to our ...

2026-10-18T22:52:27Z

Members-Only Game Thread: ALCS – Oct 18, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the ALCS game today. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/members-only-game-thread-alcs-oct-18-2026/

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Sunday Notes: NYY Prospect Dax Kilby is Debuting New Mechanics in ...

2026-10-18T13:51:48Z

Sunday Notes: NYY Prospect Dax Kilby is Debuting New Mechanics in the Desert

Dax Kilby is among the higher-profile prospects currently honing his skills in the Arizona Fall League. A 19-year-old shortstop whom the New York Yankees drafted 39th overall last year out of a Georgia high school, he ranks third in the Bombers system and No. 103 on The Board. Making up for missed time is part of why Kilby is in the desert. As Eric Longenhagen explained in his AFL preview, the 50 FV prospect dealt with a severe hamstring injury for much of 2026. He has shown promise with when healthy. This season, Kilby slashed a solid .242/.427/.403 with a 143 wRC+ over 154 plate appearances with Low-A Tampa.
How does the youngster view his early-career acclimation to pro ball?
“As I didn’t go to college, I’m seeing a lot better pitching,” Kilby told me on AFL media day. “I think that reveals a lot about who you are as a hitter. My first year, I was hitting a lot of ground balls [a 54.4% rate across 58 PAs] and using my speed to my advantage. That was definitely a change from high school, where the pitching isn’t as good and you can get into balls more often, for more power.”
Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski are both bullish on Kilby’s potential to do damage going forward. Addressing the 6-foot-2, 190-pound lefty swinger’s quick hands in his recent scouting notebook, Gawlowski wrote that “the way he’s able to pull them in and turn around velocity is in a class with the Max Clarks and Kevin McGonigles of the world.”
Kilby worked on mechanical changes in the weeks leading up to the AFL season. As he explained, the Yankees have him starting narrower and more open, the objective being two-fold: (1) allowing him to be more adjustable to different pitches, and (2) getting him more into his back hip, increasing the number of balls he is driving in the air. While his 40.2 GB% this year was an improvement from 2025’s pro-debut, it was still far from optimal.
Radically alternating his stroke isn’t part of the equation.
“My bat path has been super good,” Kilby opined. “I’ve always been a bat-to-ball guy who makes a lot of contact — I don’t strike out a lot — and we want to keep that the same. All we’re doing is implementing me getting a little bit more into my legs. I’m still looking to hit line drives. For me, staying up the middle of the field is the most important thing.”
His initial efforts with revamped mechanics have yielded positive results: seven hits, including four doubles and a round-tripper versus Fall League pitching. As Gawlowski stated in his recent notebook, ”Kilby looks great as a hitter.”
———
RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS
Ted Kubiak went 10 for 25 against Joe Coleman.
Tommy Harper went 9 for 17 against Ted Abernathy.
Dave May went 8 for 20 against Steve Busby.
Mike Hegan went 7 for 8 against Sparky Lyle.
Ted Savage went 6 for 11 against Steve Blass.
———
Tyler Tolbert has turned into a pretty good hitter, albeit not one who is going to knock down many fences. The 28-year-old Kansas City Royals outfielder has left the yard just four times in 205 MLB plate appearances, and his totals down on the farm were also nothing to write home about. His game is built on speed. Tolbert has pilfered 43 bags in his limited time in the bigs, and his lowest full-season total in the minors was 48. Moreover, he was a perfect 60-for-60 with the High-A Quad City River Bandits in 2022.
And again, he has begun to show that he can swing it a little. Tolbert batted .280 in his 57-at-bat cup of coffee with the Royals in 2025, and this past year he slashed .285/.347/.392 with a 107 wRC+. I asked the 2019 13th-round pick out of the University of Alabama at Birmingham about his growth as a hitter when KC came to Boston in mid-September.
“I’m just continuing to get better,” said Tolbert, whose .246 batting average and .693 OPS while coming up through the Royals system didn’t exactly portend his recent level of success. “Each season you just try to find what works for you, and try to get into a groove. I’ve had good hitting years and I’ve had average hitting years. I don’t really chase numbers, though. I just trust my routine and my process. If you’re focusing on the process, the numbers are going to be the numbers.”
Tolbert’s good years include his being honored as the organization’s George Brett (MiLB) Hitter of the Year in 2023, although — no disrespect meant — his numbers with Double-A Northwest Arkansas that season were far from Brett-like. He had 44 extra-base hits, including 10 triple and 10 home runs, but also just a 97 wRC+. Even when at his best, his wheels have been his carrying tool.
“Yeah, I like to run a little bit,” a smiling Tolbert told me when I brought up his best attribute. “When I’m on first base, I’m in scoring position, but I also need to be smart. I need to know the situation and the scouting report. From there I can chase what I’m looking for.”
———
A quiz:
Seven different players have hit 40 or more home runs for the Milwaukee Brewers in a single season, with two of them surpassing that number twice. Who are the two players with a pair of 40-plus homer seasons as a Brewer?
Bonus question: Who are the seven Brewers with at least one 40-homer season?
The answers can be found below.
———
NEWS NOTES
Shoki Oda, an 18-year-old right-hander with an upper-90s fastball, reportedly plans to sign with an MLB team rather than remain in Japan. The Yokohama High School product had been expected to be a first-round pick in this year’s NPB draft.
The San Diego Padres are signing 20-year-old Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Nogami. Per Yakyu Cosmopolitan, the 2027 NPB Draft prospect plays junkoshiki, which uses a rubber-covered ball with a hard core. He has topped out at 96 mph.
The Richmond Flying Squirrels are the recipient of MiLB.com’s 2026 Minor League Baseball Organization of the Year Award. The Atlanta Braves’ Double-A affiliate not only set a team record with 7,105 fans per game, it was the highest total attendance in the Eastern League since 2005.
Bud Zipfel, a first baseman/outfielder who played in 118 games for the Washington Senators across the 1961-1962 seasons, died last weekend at age 87. The Belleville, Illinois native batted .220 over his MLB career, with 10 of his 78 hits leaving the yard. Zipfel hit two of his dingers, including his first, off of Phil “The Vulture” Regan.
———
The answer to the quiz is Prince Fielder, who had 50- and 46-homer seasons (2007 and 2009), and Richie Sexson, who hit 45 home runs in both 2001 and 2003.
The other Brewers to go deep at least 40 times in a single season are Gorman Thomas, Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun, Chris Carter, and Ben Oglivie.
———
Last Sunday’s column included a pair of brief passages from Peter Gammons’s excellent new book It’s All About the Players. Here is another, this one in a chapter about Cal Ripken Jr. The subject at hand was baseball’s longest game, which took place between the Pawtucket Red Sox and Rochester Red Wings in 1981.
“The game lasted thirty-two innings, until the curfew sent the players and the eight remaining fans home. Included among the players was PawSox reliever Luis Aponte. When he got home, his wife didn’t believe the story about the game going thirty-two innings, threw him back into the cold, locked the door, and thus forced him to go back to McCoy Stadium to sleep. The suspended game resumed two months later on June 23 during the ’81 major league strike, with the same two starting third basemen; Ripken with Rochester, Wade Boggs with Pawtucket.”
The chapter also includes interesting facts about Cal Ripken Sr, who before becoming a big-league coach and manager was a minor-league catcher. As Gammons explained, the elder Ripken caught, among others, Jim Palmer, the legendary Steve Dalkowski, and Hall of Fame executive Pat Gillick. Not mentioned, but nonetheless noteworthy, is Gillick’s having gone 11-2 with a 1.91 ERA over 132 innings for the Fox City Foxes in 1960. Dean Chance, Boog Powell, Pete Ward, and Earl Weaver also played on that team.
———
Foster Griffin threw eight mostly-forgettable MLB innings before spending three seasons with NPB’s Tokyo Yomiuri Giants. The 183 innings he’s thrown since returning stateside have been anything but forgettable. Since signing with the Washington Nationals last winter, and subsequently being dealt to the Cleveland Guardians at this summer’s trade deadline, the 30-year-old southpaw has gone 16-6 with a 3.59 ERA. His three most recent appearance have come in the postseason, with Griffin garnering a win and a pair of no-decisions.
I asked him about his M.O. on the mound when the AL Central champs played in Boston at the tail end of the regular season. Given his seven-pitch arsenal and 11th-percentile velocity, I suspected that he might be analytically-inclined. As it turns out, that isn’t so much the case.
“I have a lot of pitches, and not necessarily any outliers metrically, so a lot of my pitching goes off of scouting reports,” said Griffin, who has fanned 15 batters and is yet to surrendered a walk in October. “I was also overseas, where [pitching analytics] aren’t as advanced as they are over here. A lot of it was kind of the eye test for me over there, but at the same time, I do have pretty decent knowledge of how my stuff plays.”
Is he surprised that tech isn’t more prevalent in the Japanese baseball realm?
“A little bit,” Griffin replied. “They’re pretty traditional, and a lot of the coaches pitched there a long time ago. They’re very adamant about doing things the way they did them back in the day. It’s kind of stuck that way for awhile.
“I definitely respected the coaches,” he went on to say. “They helped me a lot, but again, a lot of it was going off the eye test as far as knowing what I needed to do as far as things like the movement profiles to get guys out. It’s just different compared to here.”
———
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
The Japan Series — NPB’s equivalent to the World Series — will get underway next weekend with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks matching up against the Yokohama DeNA BayStars. The defending champion Hawks defeated the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters to advance, while the BayStars punched their ticket by beating the Hanshin Tigers.
In the KBO, the Kia Tigers beat the LG Twins in each of the first two games of their best-of-five semi-final series. Former MLB right-hander James Naile went seven innings for the Game 1 win, while 23-year-old superstar third baseman Do-yeong Kim crushed a pair of home runs. Adam Oller, who pitched in MLB from 2022-2024, then went six frames for the W in Game 2. The winner of the series will go on to meet the Samsung Lions in another best-of-five, while the KT Wiz have a bye to the best-of-seven championship series courtesy of owning the circuit’s best regular season record.
John Gant went 9-2 with a 1.49 ERA over 133-and-a-third innings for the Chinese Professional Baseball League’s Wei Chuan Dragons this season. The 34-year-old right-hander made 173 MLB appearances from 2016-2021, taking the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, and Minnesota Twins. This was Gant’s first season in Taiwan.
———
A random obscure former player snapshot:
Ron Rightnowar spent nine seasons in the minors before making his big-league debut at age 30. Signed as a non-drafted free agent by the Detroit Tigers out of Eastern Michigan University in 1986, the right-hander was subsequently traded to Milwaukee in 1993 for a PTBNL (Nikco Riesgo), then went on to take the mound 34 times for the Brewers in 1995. Rightnowar finished the season — his last in pro ball — with a 5.40 ERA and a 2-1 won-lost record.
The first of Rightnowar’s appearances came on May 10, two weeks after the season finally got underway — and nine months after the last game had been played. On August 12, 1994, unable to come to terms with ownership, whose demands included a salary cap, the players went on strike. At the time, the Montreal Expos, who had MLB’s second-lowest payroll, boasted a record of 74-40, the best in either league. As history books sadly show, no World Series was played that year.
———
LINKS YOU’LL LIKE
At Bless You Boys, Brandon Day wrote about how MLB created a Dodgers monster, and they want the players to help slay it.
Orioles owner David Rubenstein said the quiet part out loud in a recent interview with Baltimore Baseball: team owners make a ton of money. Mike Axisa weighed in on Rubenstein’s refreshingly-honest comments at CBS Sports.
The Athletic’s Chad Jennings looked at 10 moves that helped build the World Series-bound Brewers.
MLB.com’s Michael Claire wrote about four NPB stars who could be MLB-bound.
Could the St. Louis Cardinals use an upgrade in center field? Jake Wood addressed that question, offering a few possibilities along the way, at Viva El Birdos.
———
RANDOM FACTS AND STATS
Cincinnati Reds batters had a 25.5% strikeout rate this season, which tied for the highest of any team. Reds batters also a .278 BABIP, which tied for the lowest of any team.
Milwaukee Brewers batters had a .316 BABIP, the highest of any team. Tampa Bay Rays batters ranked seventh in that category at .296, while the Cleveland Guardians ranked 25th at .281.
The Arizona Diamondbacks committed 24 throwing errors, the fewest of any team. The Seattle Mariners committed 62 throwing errors, the most of any team.
In 1979, Fred Lynn finished fifth in AL MVP voting after leading the circuit in batting average, on-base-percentage, and slugging percentage. He was also tops with a 175 wRC+ and 8.6 WAR. The MVP award went to Don Baylor, who led in runs scored (four more than Lynn) and RBIs (17 more), logged a 142 wRC+ and 3.6 WAR.
On today’s date in 1977, Reggie Jackson went deep in three consecutive trips to the plate as the New York Yankees captured a World Series title by beating the Los Angeles Dodgers by a count of 8-4. All told, “Mr. October” had 10 home runs and a 1.212 OPS over 116 career plate appearances in the Fall Classic.
Cornelius McGillicuddy — a.k.a. Connie Mack — retired as manager of the Philadelphia Athletics on today’s date in 1950. Eighty-seven years old at the time, Mack had managed for 53 seasons, three with the Pittsburgh Pirates and the rest with the A’s. Prior to trading in the tools of ignorance for a suit — he was famously dapper in the dugout — Mack caught for three clubs from 1886-1896.
Players born on today’s date include Roy Cullenbine, one of the most underrated hitters in MLB history. A switch-hitting outfielder/first baseman whose career spanned the 1938-1947 seasons, Cullenbine logged a .408 OBP, tying him with Jeff Bagwell for 31st on the all-time list (minimum 4,000 plate appearances). Suiting up for six teams — primarily the Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians, and St. Louis Browns — the Mount Clemens, Michigan native also had a .276 batting average and a 135 wRC+. He won a World Series with the Tabbies in 1945.
Also born on today’s date was Skeeter Newsome, an infielder who played for the Boston Red Sox, as well as for both Philadelphia clubs, across the 1935-1947 campaigns. A mediocre-at-best hitter — just a 62 wRC+ — the Phenix City, Alabama native went on to be a successful manager down on the farm. Skeeter skippered four squads to league championships in his 11 seasons at the helm.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-nyy-prospect-dax-kilby-is-debuting-new-mechanics-in-the-desert/

#daxkilby #newyork #desert #nyy #fallleague #afl #gawlowski #arizonafall #yorkyankees #ted

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Who Needs a Dome? Rays Even ALCS in Frigid Game 4 If you’re ...

2026-10-18T06:06:03Z

Who Needs a Dome? Rays Even ALCS in Frigid Game 4

If you’re keeping score at home, the ALCS has now gone back and forth twice. On a frigid Saturday night in Cleveland, Tampa Bay’s big bats finally woke up. The Rays beat the Guardians, 7-3, to win Game 4 and even the series at 2-2. The game was originally scheduled for Friday night, but pouring rain destroyed that plan. The low temperature and a light west-southwest breeze kept multiple would-be…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/who-needs-a-dome-rays-even-alcs-in-frigid-game-4/

#alcs #game #tampabay #cleveland #friday

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Members-Only Game Thread: ALCS – Oct 17, 2026 Welcome to our ...

2026-10-18T01:10:35Z

Members-Only Game Thread: ALCS – Oct 17, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the ALCS game today. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/members-only-game-thread-alcs-oct-17-2026/

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FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: October 17, 2026 One of the great ...

2026-10-17T14:27:00Z

FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: October 17, 2026

One of the great underrated joys of baseball is a competitive best-of-seven series that ends in five games. Think the 2024 World Series, when the only game the Dodgers lost was also the only game that was decided by more than three runs. The series scoreboard suggests that it was lopsided, but the individual games were absolutely riveting. Even more overlooked is the enthralling four-game sweep…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-weekly-mailbag-october-17-2026/

#series #worldseries

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Effectively Wild Episode 2545: Dodgered a Bullet This is a free ...

2026-10-17T08:25:12Z

Effectively Wild Episode 2545: Dodgered a Bullet

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, please visit our Patreon.
Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley talk primarily (though not exclusively) about the Brewers’ NLCS sweep of the Dodgers: how it happened, the highs and lows, and what the outcome of the rematch does and doesn’t mean for the perception of the sport, the reality of the league and its labor outlook, the future of the Dodgers, and more.
Audio intro: Xavier LeBlanc, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Daniel Leckie, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Link to NLCS stats
Link to Ben on the sweep
Link to Ringer art
Link to Caravaggio original
Link to Bobblehead character
Link to Bobblehead article
Link to Dol Guldur wiki
Link to Ohtani homer
Link to Ohtani on 2027
Link to gamers quote
Link to roster breakdowns
Link to BP on Snell’s command
Link to Baumann on Snell and Cash
Link to three-inning-save query
Link to Pages double
Link to market-size ranking
Link to Lucas quote
Link to Andrew Norton site
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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2545-dodgered-a-bullet/

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Members-Only Game Thread: ALCS – Oct 16, 2026 Welcome to our ...

2026-10-17T04:02:44Z

Members-Only Game Thread: ALCS – Oct 16, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the ALCS game today. Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
millvillemeltdown 7:44 PM
the brewers fan in my vicinity has stated "i don't care who wins this series, only that it goes 7" which. i think is fair at this point
turfe 7:47 PM
but wouldn't MIL lose some of its momentum?
millvillemeltdown 7:50 PM
how massive is milwaukee. i figure their collective inertia should carry them a while
Sean Dolinar 7:54 PM
7 games with two extra inning games in TBR.
Sean Dolinar 7:55 PM
Though there's two off days between a game 7 and game 1 of the WS. Which is plenty of time of a bullpen to recover. SP might not be lined up.
Sean Dolinar 7:47 PM
I wouldn't mind more baseball games.
drplantwrench 7:55 PM
without giving away too much, i got an interview in baseball thanks to seeing a posting on fangraphs! thanks fangraphs!
millvillemeltdown 7:55 PM
eyo, grats!
Sean Dolinar 7:56 PM
that's awesome! good luck!
turfe 7:56 PM
congrats!
Sean Dolinar 7:56 PM
did you have to fight through AI resumes and AI HR screening?
millvillemeltdown 7:56 PM
… don't remind me of the hell that awaits me after my thermo midterm…
drplantwrench 7:58 PM
honestly no, it was a pretty lightweight application and process thus far
Sean Dolinar 8:01 PM
I'm scared if I had to apply for jobs again.
millvillemeltdown 8:09 PM
i'm hearing all my classmates complain about r. i have never used r. i keep reading that i should learn r, upskilling and whatnot, and i just don't want to.
millvillemeltdown 8:10 PM
i wrestle with computers enough… i don't want to do more wrestling… i don't want to wrestle a computer to make the computer wrestle more computer…
Alan Sherman 8:12 PM
When I was in college more than 15 years ago I also had classmates learning R. If it's still in use now, that's an eternity in computer time so maybe learning it is a better investment than learning some other things?
millvillemeltdown 8:15 PM
i will be honest, i just don't enjoy stats! i think it'd probably be good for me, but i took quantum with that intention last year and it was not very pleasant.
Michael Minetti 8:01 PM
I bet the Rays at 25/1 to win the AL East (thanks to FG projections), so I've been a fan all year. I kinda like them at +155 to win the Series, but the Sim says I need 2/1, so I'm reluctantly gonna pass.
Sean Dolinar 8:05 PM
You would have lost money if you bet against the Brewers because of our projections.
Michael Minetti 8:07 PM
I've lost money betting against the Brewers the last THREE years!!
Sean Dolinar 8:08 PM
Sorry about that!
Michael Minetti 8:10 PM
But had the 2 long shot AL East winners (TOR/TB) because of FG. That makes up for a lot of OV/UND misses.
Sean Dolinar 8:02 PM
It looks quite wet in Cleveland. Tarp just got put back on…so that's not good.
Anonymous Member #46 8:03 PM
Tarps on is just not compatible with baseball in 2026.
Anonymous Member #46 8:04 PM
I didn't realize the game was going to be delayed when I posted up on the couch, and now I've got a sleeping cat on my lap and my book is in the other room.
Sean Dolinar 8:13 PM
I've never looked up Cleveland's weather so much as I have in the last week.
drplantwrench 8:15 PM
mike trout would be so disappointed in you
Sean Dolinar 8:15 PM
I look up weather a lot. Just not Cleveland.
Sean Dolinar 8:16 PM
And sunrise and sunset.
mlommler 8:15 PM
I learned R in grad school and it (in addition to my non-coding skills) has kept me in steady work since 2021 ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
drplantwrench 8:15 PM
im in a similar spot, but i did Python instead of R
Alan Sherman 8:15 PM
I live on the other side of Lake Erie and all of our storms come from the general direction of Cleveland
mlommler 8:16 PM
I've been slowly building up the Python skill, mostly for ArcGIS
Sean Dolinar 8:17 PM
Oooo…are we turning this into a coding chat? I'm in!
mlommler 8:17 PM
Until we get baseball?
drplantwrench 8:18 PM
what do you use to code the chats? i assume its mostly javascript?
Alan Sherman 8:18 PM
if it turns into a coding chat, do I need to leave or will I learn something?
drplantwrench 8:19 PM
neither, we'll probably be incompressible and boring with a dumb joke every now and then
Alan Sherman 8:19 PM
Sean actually has his own bespoke programming language just for fangraphs? /snark
Keaton Arneson 8:20 PM
Most disappointing thing is sitting down on the couch with delivered pizza in hand and seeing a tarp on the field.
Anonymous Member #46 8:21 PM
Hey, at least you have pizza. I have cat.
mlommler 8:21 PM
But think of the people who are seeing a tarp and *don't* have pizza!
Keaton Arneson 8:22 PM
Cat? Side note, our 15 year old cat just caught a fly. That was exciting.
millvillemeltdown 8:22 PM
the cat i live with is trying to convince us that he has never been fed
Sean Dolinar 8:23 PM
what toppings?
Keaton Arneson 8:23 PM
The kids are cheese and so am I.
Keaton Arneson 8:24 PM
My favorite pizza in town is a Beef Tostada though.
Anonymous Member #46 8:28 PM
I'm couchlocked by a sleeping tabby (see above)
Keaton Arneson 8:32 PM
Our orange tabby just got off the couch to wait for his food in 90 minutes.
Sean Dolinar 8:20 PM
Our front end is NextJS. We still have a handful of pages that still use .NET webforms which is old.
Sean Dolinar 8:21 PM
So the front end of chat is in Next/React/JS.
Keaton Arneson 8:21 PM
I see the chat polls are a lot more realistic now for who's going to win. Game 1 was 91% for the Rays.
Sean Dolinar 8:21 PM
Chat backend is .NET, so C#.
jacob2 8:22 PM
R gang member, reporting for duty
Sean Dolinar 8:22 PM
Which this is a lot like some corporate stacks and in turn a lot of teams have tech stacks similar to this. Or at least had a few years ago.
drplantwrench 8:22 PM
Python >>>>> R
brought to you by the Python Gang
millvillemeltdown 8:23 PM
i am decent enough at python that i think i can read docs and be vaguely competent
millvillemeltdown 8:24 PM
my partner knows ???frontend??? as well as everything else from cs undergrad. but i know not
Phil 8:25 PM
Been a while since I logged on to a Fangraphs chat and understood nothing of what was being said. But I know what wrc+ stands for! Is that worth nothing???
millvillemeltdown 8:25 PM
what's a run? are they like points?
Phil 8:27 PM
Yes, but also literally a guy running, which is a necessity; see Merkle, Fred.
Sean Dolinar 8:27 PM
Part of me wishes we used more python, but in the end it doesn't matter too much. I also don't do as much with our ETL process.
drplantwrench 8:28 PM
and sean joins the python gang…
mlommler 8:28 PM
We really ought to bring boner back as a term for messing up
Alan Sherman 8:29 PM
but why doesn't the ball go in the goal?
mlommler 8:29 PM
See, now I'm thinking of Andres Cantor calling a home run
Phil 8:29 PM
Also, don't know what's happening in Cleveland, but I'm a couple hours west and it's barely drizzling if anything.
drplantwrench 8:29 PM
if i had my hands on the fan graphs code, id definitely convert more to python and add more plotly style interactive visuals
Sean Dolinar 8:32 PM
What would the visuals be?
drplantwrench 8:33 PM
id focus on the interactive parts more – like adding visuals for all the leaders tables and hovertext, filtering, employing splits filtering into visuals too
Keaton Arneson 8:30 PM
We need to add custom photoemojis. I surprisingly use an Austin Hedges one a lot in my baseball group chat. And since Hedges was a league average hitter this year (wRC+ ), it was used a lot.
Sean Dolinar 8:31 PM
It's wired up to use a .png. We have to hard code it in there, but it's ready for it.
jacob2 8:30 PM
I would add a notification system to the comments so that I would know if somebody replied to me. Would be much easier to waste my days yapping about baseball!
Sean Dolinar 8:35 PM
We might be able to do that now. Part of me wants to rip out WP's comment system for a modified version of chat.
Email is the easy notification for this. Probably could do app notifications too.
drplantwrench 8:31 PM
i also wanna know if my jokes in the comments get likes or not
Alan Sherman 8:31 PM
HOOOOOOOONNNNNRROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON
drplantwrench 8:31 PM
also i have several baseball themed emojis that i abuse in my baseball discords, would love them here
Alan Sherman 8:32 PM
The storm is reaching across the lake now, don't know if that means it's moving away from Cleveland or just quite large
Sean Dolinar 8:33 PM
It's moving south and east. So I think it's clearing up now.
mlommler 8:33 PM
Does the tabby get food before baseball starts?
Anonymous Member #46 8:35 PM
Mine was fed before scheduled first pitch.
Keaton Arneson 8:40 PM
Ours is 7 AM, noon, 6 PM, and 9 PM
Alan Sherman 8:40 PM
I'm understanding about half the coding words being discussed here? maybe less?
mlommler 8:44 PM
I'm a field biologist by training so if we get beyond the analysis stuff I actually do I'm pretty much with you. The main thing is to get good enough at the basics so you can work through solutions to the thornier problems by leaning on StackOverflow, etc.
drplantwrench 8:43 PM
another fun thing we can do while we wait is a friend of mine sent this questionnaire supposedly a baseball team used for job screenings
drplantwrench 8:43 PM
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfObSmLPazC5gEwm41_…
drplantwrench 8:44 PM
if my link is allowed?
Sean Dolinar 8:44 PM
gotcha
Michael Minetti 8:44 PM edited
Coding, 1908 references, cats trapping people on couches, Cleveland weather. This chat is LIT!!!
mlommler 8:46 PM
Bad weather along the Great Lakes… kinda wish I had an Edmund Fitzgerald Porter now
Sean Dolinar 8:54 PM
I remember drinking a lot of Railbender when I was up in Erie.
mlommler 8:47 PM
Hard to come by in Denver
bosoxforlife 8:47 PM
Usually when I am at a chat on Fangraphs about baseball I feel like I have a strong understanding of the subject but my slash line about what is being talked about here is .000/.000/.000.
Sean Dolinar 8:50 PM
This is why they don't let me on these often.
drplantwrench 8:48 PM
two more chat coding feature requests – uploading images and ability to delete your own comment
jacob2 8:52 PM
Don't make the same mistake I did and start giving a cat three meals a day. I could believe that in theory you could break the cat of the habit, but it would inflict so much pain and suffering that it's not worth it. I can barely hold him to just the three
Sean Dolinar 9:02 PM
Welp.
Sean Dolinar 9:02 PM
We're going to have to do this tomorrow/Sunday.
Sean Dolinar 9:05 PM
This was the best non-game game thread we've ever had!
Sean Dolinar 9:06 PM
Same time tomorrow for game 4. Then game 5 will be Sunday at 5PM ET.
drplantwrench 9:06 PM
whens the last time a playoff game got rained out
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/members-only-game-thread-alcs-oct-16-2026/

#rss #feeds #linksharing #qwibbit

Petey Halpin Has Sneaky Pop, and He Picks Good Times to Prove It ...

2026-10-16T18:38:30Z

Petey Halpin Has Sneaky Pop, and He Picks Good Times to Prove It

When Petey Halpin hit a home run to lift the Cleveland Guardians to a 3-2 win over the Tampa Bay Rays in yesterday’s ALCS Game 3, it came as a surprise to many. That’s understandable. Coming into October, the 24-year-old outfielder had left the yard just four times in 203 major league plate appearances. Moreover, his career wRC+ was a paltry 69, and as Eric Longenhagen wrote back in May of last…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/petey-halpin-has-sneaky-pop-and-he-picks-good-times-to-prove-it/

#peteyhalpin #times #alcsgame #bayrays #clevelandguardians #tampabay #ericlongenhagen #october #may #moreover

#rss #feeds #linksharing #qwibbit

Job Posting: Tampa Bay Rays – Amateur Data Technician Direct ...

2026-10-16T17:42:03Z

Job Posting: Tampa Bay Rays – Amateur Data Technician

Direct link to application (please see job details below):
Amateur Data Technician
Amateur Data Technician
Department: Amateur Scouting
Reports to: Senior Analyst, Baseball R&D
Location: St. Petersburg, FL
Overview
The Amateur Data Technician will sit at the intersection of Amateur Scouting and Data Engineering, ensuring the completeness, accuracy, and accessibility of college/high school data to maximize its impact on the player evaluation process for the annual MLB Draft. This person will develop a thorough understanding of available data sources and the full data pipeline, from ingestion into the database through integration into the amateur model. The technician will work alongside analysts and engineers to support and maintain data pipelines, ensure reliable and complete data delivery, develop quality-control processes, identify and reduce query bottlenecks, and explore opportunities to incorporate underutilized information. The technician will also gain an understanding of the amateur model, assist with its day-to-day operation and maintenance, and support various ad hoc statistical and draft-related tasks.
Responsibilities:
(65%) Amateur Data Oversight
Develop and maintain processes to track data delivery and ensure completeness
Implement quality checks to identify recurring issues, including erroneous or duplicate data
Develop a working understanding of existing data pipeline frameworks and historical considerations
Partner with Amateur Scouting staff to improve the accuracy and efficiency of data mapping processes
Optimize existing queries and develop new ones to reduce data-access bottlenecks
Maintain a thorough understanding of amateur data sources and their characteristics
(35%) Amateur Analytical Support
Understand the amateur model framework and impact of underlying data sources
Assist with the execution and maintenance of the amateur model pipeline
Conduct ad hoc analytical explorations and support other draft-related tasks
Qualifications:
Applied experience with SQL and relational databases
Fluency in R
Experience working with large or complex datasets and troubleshooting data-quality issues
Working knowledge of statistical modeling and machine learning
Experience in amateur baseball or with TrackMan data a plus
Fluency in Python a plus
All offers are contingent on a satisfactory background check.
We are an equal opportunity employer and all qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, national origin, sex, sexual orientation, age, disability, gender identity, marital or veteran status, or any other protected class.
To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.
The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Tampa Bay Rays.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/instagraphs/job-posting-tampa-bay-rays-amateur-data-technician/

#amateurdata #bayrays #datatechnician #tampabay #amateurscouting #dataengineering #develop #scoutingreports #dataoversight #mlbdraft

Digging Through a Weak Free Agent Market Denis Poroy and Steven ...

2026-10-16T16:36:22Z

Digging Through a Weak Free Agent Market

Denis Poroy and Steven Bisig-Imagn Images
There’s still a bit more baseball to be played this year — the most important baseball, in fact. But after the Dodgers got eliminated Thursday night, swept out of the NLCS by the Brewers, there are now 27 teams looking primarily at the offseason. When they get there, they’ll find a rather thin free agent market, especially if they are not the one to sign Tarik Skubal to the largest contract for a pitcher not named Brita. But even in a weak free agent market, there are plenty of lower-key free agents who would be nice fits for some teams, and being that I find myself employed as a baseball writer, I thought it might be fun to talk about some of them.
For this exercise, we’re limiting our suitors to the nine teams that missed making the playoffs by eight or fewer games this season, meaning they went into October empty-handed but were close enough to a playoff spot that they could stand to gain a lot from the right offseason signing. In matching these clubs with a player, I’m looking at free agents who fill a real need for each team, rather than just giving them the most talented player available. I’ve also included a preliminary ZiPS projection for each player. (There’s still a lot more work to do before Real Officially Licensed 2027 ZiPS Projections© are in.)
Pittsburgh Pirates: Seiya Suzuki, OF/DH
The Pirates’ offense had nearly a 50-point OPS platoon split disadvantage against lefties in 2026. Pirates DHs combined for an 83 wRC+ this year. Bringing in Seiya Suzuki would help immensely for both problems. Whether they play Suzuki at DH or shift another outfielder there, the Pirates were so close to the playoffs that it makes no sense to stick to their normal DH plan of Let’s Find a Dude Who Fans Will Remember Being Really Good 10 Years Ago.
ZiPS Projection – Seiya Suzuki
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2027
.270
.355
.471
529
80
143
33
2
23
74
70
141
5
127
3.4
2028
.264
.350
.452
500
73
132
30
2
20
67
66
135
4
121
2.7
2029
.258
.343
.435
462
64
119
27
2
17
59
60
127
3
115
2.1
2030
.251
.335
.413
419
56
105
24
1
14
50
53
119
3
107
1.4
Texas Rangers: Tyler Stephenson, C
The days of Jonah Heim are now of yore, and the Rangers are thin behind the plate even with their acquisition of Danny Jansen last winter. Logan O’Hoppe was an interesting midseason trade pickup, and he looked to be one of the better young catchers in baseball a few years ago with some real power upside, but after a couple seasons of not hitting and a smorgasbord of injuries, he seems likely to be non-tendered. Texas catchers combined to hit .223/.291/.372 this season, and Elias Díaz and Kyle Higashioka are pending free agents. Tyler Stephenson would give Jansen a good tandem-mate, and one who is good enough offensively to play some DH. That second part could be crucial, because I think Justin Foscue will need to play second quite a bit with Ezequiel Duran still manning a superutility role. It would be even better if Stephenson were left-handed and could be a natural replacement for Joc Pederson, but you can’t do custom orders in free agency.
ZiPS Projection – Tyler Stephenson
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2027
.231
.318
.397
390
46
90
21
1
14
52
47
125
0
104
1.7
2028
.224
.312
.380
371
43
83
19
0
13
48
45
119
0
98
1.3
2029
.218
.306
.365
348
38
76
18
0
11
43
42
113
0
92
0.9
Arizona Diamondbacks: Gregory Soto, LHRP
The Diamondbacks went through the season with a bit of an odd bullpen, in that most of the time, they had just a single lefty. The average team had 172 appearances from southpaw relievers in 2026, while Arizona had a total of 67. The vast majority of those appearances were, fortunately, from the nearly unhittable Brandyn Garcia, but it would be helpful to have another solid lefty on the roster. Gregory Soto is unlikely to get fêted this winter the way Adrian Morejon will, but Soto is quite dependable and rarely gets hit all that hard.
ZiPS Projection – Gregory Soto
Year
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
2027
5
3
3.58
60
0
55.3
47
22
4
24
63
117
0.5
2028
5
3
3.78
57
0
52.3
45
22
4
23
58
111
0.4
2029
4
4
3.93
54
0
50.3
45
22
4
23
55
106
0.3
Baltimore Orioles: Daulton Varsho, CF
Colton Cowser had surprisingly good defensive numbers in center field for the Orioles in 2026, but I suspect that he’s still a safer long-term bet in a corner. Daulton Varsho struggled offensively down the stretch, bombing his seasonal line with a really dreadful 48 wRC+ for the Astros after they acquired him at the deadline. But even when Varsho doesn’t hit, he can field, and his fly ball proclivities and B+ power are a good fit for Camden Yards, which tends to be friendly to left-handed hitters. He’s unlikely to command a large salary, but even if the O’s do show a willingness to spend this winter, they probably need to direct those resources toward pitching.
ZiPS Projection – Daulton Varsho
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2027
.230
.289
.414
444
58
102
21
5
17
56
35
107
9
98
2.1
2028
.224
.284
.396
419
54
94
19
4
15
52
33
102
8
92
1.7
2029
.226
.287
.399
393
50
89
18
4
14
47
31
97
7
94
1.6
Seattle Mariners: Randy Arozarena, LF/DH
I wasn’t going to do any re-signs, but since I wrote the rules for the article, I’m allowed to break them. That’s how this works, right? Randy Arozarena isn’t likely to match his 2026 offensive line, but I’d argue that among players with sub-superstar projections, none is as important to his team as Arozarena is to the Mariners. Without him, left field looks like a gaping hole, and Seattle, a team that already struggles against southpaws, becomes even more vulnerable. I think the end of Arozarena’s contract isn’t going to look pretty, but if the M’s are going to crib from the Toronto Blue Jays 2024-2025 bounceback playbook, it’s going to be damned hard if they have to replace Arozarena. The projection looks even better if he’s open to playing mostly DH.
ZiPS Projection – Randy Arozarena
4
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2027
.267
.365
.449
543
96
145
28
1
23
81
64
140
21
135
3.3
2028
.258
.357
.427
515
88
133
25
1
20
74
60
134
17
127
2.5
2029
.253
.351
.416
483
80
122
23
1
18
66
56
128
14
122
2.0
2030
.246
.346
.400
443
70
109
21
1
15
57
51
121
11
116
1.4
2031
.237
.337
.379
396
60
94
18
1
12
48
45
112
9
108
0.8
Toronto Blue Jays: Taylor Ward, OF
Toronto’s outfield is a rather unenthralling one, and could really use an upgrade like Seiya Suzuki, but I already gave him to the Pirates. Taylor Ward shouldn’t be the only player the Blue Jays sign, but he’s an interesting bounceback candidate, as it’s rare for even players in their 30s to lose power to the degree Ward did in 2026. I’m wondering if he just got too passive at the plate in 2026, and if a change in approach could be unusually helpful in his case.
ZiPS Projection – Taylor Ward
4
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2027
.242
.350
.418
505
73
122
24
1
21
70
81
139
4
114
2.2
2028
.235
.343
.397
464
63
109
22
1
17
61
73
131
4
106
1.5
Minnesota Twins: Bryan Abreu, RHRP
Minnesota’s bullpen combined for a 4.74 ERA this season, an unsurprising outcome for a team that traded away most of its relievers the year before. The Twins have multiple needs, but they were better than many expected in 2026 — though projection systems were bang-on with them by and large — and Bryan Abreu has the upside to provide a big boost to the relief corps. His numbers this season were inflated by a truly awful April, and he was a shutdown reliever over the second half, posting a 3.00 FIP and getting his walks down into manageable territory.
ZiPS Projection – Bryan Abreu
Year
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
2027
5
3
3.43
66
0
65.7
49
25
7
36
83
126
0.9
2028
4
4
3.65
63
0
61.7
47
25
6
34
77
118
0.8
2029
4
3
3.66
59
0
59.0
46
24
6
33
71
118
0.6
2030
4
3
3.95
56
0
54.7
44
24
6
32
64
109
0.5
2031
3
4
4.13
55
0
52.3
44
24
6
32
60
104
0.3
Detroit Tigers: Luis Arraez, 2B/1B
I like Hao-Yu Lee, but I think his 107 wRC+ for the Tigers this season is a little on the high side for a reasonable projection for him in 2027. Lee can still be very useful in a utility role, but Luis Arraez is better equipped to replace free-agent-to-be Gleyber Torres right now. If Arraez’s much-improved defense at second base holds up, he’ll remain a borderline star, albeit a bit of an overrated one in fandom because of his high batting average. Being able to consider Arraez a real second baseman is a huge shift in his outlook from a few years ago; of the 49 primary position second basemen with 1,000 plate appearances over last five years, Arraez ranks fifth in wRC+ and third in on-base percentage.
ZiPS Projection – Luis Arraez
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2027
.314
.349
.417
592
70
186
31
6
6
67
31
27
9
113
3.5
2028
.308
.344
.408
568
66
175
29
5
6
63
30
26
7
110
3.0
2029
.300
.336
.393
537
60
161
27
4
5
57
28
25
6
103
2.2
2030
.294
.330
.384
500
54
147
25
4
4
52
26
23
5
99
1.7
2031
.291
.327
.380
447
48
130
22
3
4
45
23
21
4
97
1.3
Miami Marlins: Kevin Gausman, RHSP
The Marlins were luckier in 2026 when it came to pitcher health than they usually are, with Sandy Alcantara and Eury Pérez giving them full seasons. Adding a veteran innings eater like Kevin Gausman, the pitcher with the second-most innings over the last decade, has some real value for a team that is a realistic contender in 2027. A two- or three-year deal for Gausman would also be nice insurance for Alcantara, who is a free agent after next season and the subject of endless trade rumors. And if the Marlins don’t want Gausman, hopefully the Orioles will seek a reunion.
ZiPS Projection – Kevin Gausman
Year
W
L
ERA
G
GS
IP
H
ER
HR
BB
SO
ERA+
WAR
2027
10
10
3.94
30
29
166.7
159
73
21
50
160
105
2.5
2028
8
9
4.25
26
25
142.0
144
67
20
45
131
98
1.7
2029
7
8
4.62
22
21
122.7
131
63
19
44
109
90
1.0
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/digging-through-a-weak-free-agent-market/

William the Conqueror LOS ANGELES — The Brewers had the NLCS ...

2026-10-16T09:42:58Z

William the Conqueror

LOS ANGELES — The Brewers had the NLCS pretty much in the bag since they struck right back at Blake Snell in the top of the seventh on Wednesday night — it was just a matter of when the coup de grace came. You could argue when it became obvious that they’d log the Dodgers off with a sweep: Was it when they chased Tyler Glasnow, making it clear that this would become yet another battle of…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/william-the-conqueror/

Brewers Rally Past Dodgers To Sweep Their Way to the World Series ...

2026-10-16T08:25:07Z

Brewers Rally Past Dodgers To Sweep Their Way to the World Series

Orange County native Jake Bauers placed a stake against the heart of the two-time defending champion Dodgers, and Garrett Mitchell and Aaron Ashby drove it home. After an initial four-run flourish from the Dodgers offense, the Brewers plated six unanswered runs; they took the lead in the sixth and never looked back. Ashby worked three scoreless and twice stranded the tying run at third base. The…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/brewers-rally-past-dodgers-to-sweep-their-way-to-the-world-series/

Pummelin’ Petey Halpin Pops Go-Ahead Blast, Guardians Silence ...

2026-10-15T23:38:14Z

Pummelin’ Petey Halpin Pops Go-Ahead Blast, Guardians Silence Rays in Game 3

The ALCS opened in Cleveland for Game 3 on Thursday afternoon, with the game time moved up five hours to account for the threat of heavy rain in the forecast. All that extra time turned out to be unneeded, however, as the Guardians dispatched the Rays 3-2 in a briskly played game to take a 2-1 lead in the series. Gavin Williams got the start in Game 3 and was perfect in all but one of his five…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pummelin-petey-halpin-pops-go-ahead-blast-guardians-silence-rays-in-game-3/

Members-Only Game Thread: ALCS – Oct 13, 2026 Welcome to our ...

2026-10-15T20:21:24Z

Members-Only Game Thread: ALCS – Oct 13, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the ALCS games today. Chat with fellow readers as we watch the Guardians play the Rays! Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
soddingjunkmail 7:44 PM
The response (as of this writing) to the 2nd poll is peak Cleveland.
6/6 respondents want Cleveland to win but only 1/6 believe it will happen.
Sean Dolinar 7:48 PM
Hello everyone! We got a few polls for you. The likability ranking from last night, we'll let that ride for at least another day. Then we have the standard who ya got for the game and the SP poll.
Phil 7:56 PM
I've been thinking about possible ranked polls. If there's an all-midwest WS you'll definitely need some food polls and they will have to feature cheese curds (does Tampa have a cuisine?). I'm also mulling over one on the poignancy of loser heroics–Randy Arozarena, Rajai Davis, Carlton Fisk. I know there are other good ones I'm forgetting.
Matt Martell 8:19 PM
Bob Gibson in the 1968 World Series is the all-timer
Phil 8:22 PM
Yes, absolutely.
Matt Martell 8:27 PM
Also Chase Utley in 2009
lzfreak 8:08 PM
Any word on if Caminero and DeLuca are banged up at all after the collision yesterday? Looks like both are good to play at least which is a good sign
Jon Becker 8:11 PM
Caminero just got the wind knocked out of him, DeLuca was fine
Jon Becker 8:11 PM
Hi everyone!
Keaton Arneson 8:14 PM
Who else is doing Star Wars Legos during the game?!? I assume the answer is just me.
Sean Dolinar 8:16 PM
What are you making?
Keaton Arneson 8:19 PM
My son kind of wrecked the AT-AT Walker so I'm rebuilding it. I just got the Tantive IV in the mail yesterday
Benny The Jet 8:14 PM
Every time I see the Billy Bob Thornton commercial I think the cops are coming for the crazy guy who keeps bothering people trying to relax in the massage chairs by presuming they want to hear about T-Mobile
Sean Dolinar 8:17 PM
Jon, what do you think about this camera angle? For the pitcher-batter matchup?
Keaton Arneson 8:21 PM
Didn't Tropicana have an almost perfect straight on angle before the hurricane? I could be wrong. Maybe I need to replay MLB the Show for the answer.
Jon Becker 8:32 PM
Pretty good but it's perfect in the regular season, yeah
bosoxforlife 8:17 PM
I have a strange question for the group after watching Diaz lope down the line. Should a player go hard on such an easy play and risk a hammy or give himself up?
Phil 8:20 PM
Depends on the state of his hammies going in. I was OK with Willson Contreras taking it easy when it came up with him–he was clearly hurt, and he's not in the lineup to get infield hits.
lzfreak 8:25 PM
I remember Tony La Russa taking a lot of heat in Chicago when he told his players not to hustle on routine plays. Then they fired him and the next season the 3 best White Sox players all got hurt running the bases in April. Sometimes you just can't win
bosoxforlife 8:26 PM
I lean to the don't risk injury side.
Benny The Jet 8:23 PM
What was that commercial!
drplantwrench 8:30 PM
i feel like dodgers sorta have to play shohei at this point, whats there to lose
Rollie's Mustache 8:32 PM
Well this is a bad challenge.
ncphl 8:32 PM
Good thing they get two
bosoxforlife 8:34 PM
The replay coach needs a pair of glasses.
Dan Szymborski 8:42 PM
G'evening
lzfreak 8:43 PM
Messick only retired one batter that inning but still faced the minimum
Phil 8:45 PM
Dan, obviously there's a long way to go in the NLCS. But from what we've seen so far, do you think projection systems need better ways of accounting for players not on the IL but playing hurt? I feel like all of them, not ZiPS particularly, have been projecting LA at their best and not as they are.
ncphl 8:57 PM
A rare Walls hit!
Dan Szymborski 8:57 PM
Phil, it would definitely hurt, but the problem is the actual data itself.
Dan Szymborski 8:58 PM
I've always wondered if there's something that can be done here, such as sudden change in playing time over a seven-day-period, but I haven't really dug into it
Dan Szymborski 8:58 PM
errr, it woudl definitely HELP
drplantwrench 8:59 PM
how would you even predict injury?
Phil 9:02 PM
Yeah, I recognize that reliable data is a huge problem. You don't want ZiPS scouring the papers.
Dan Szymborski 9:09 PM
Maybe some day AI can figure that out, but that day is not now!
Phil 9:18 PM edited
The problem is that both players and teams lie. I don't know that AI will ever get to the point where it can see through an obvious lie. Our greatest advantage over the machines!
bosoxforlife 9:02 PM
I just checked Eric's 2023 Guardians prospect list and a remarkable 14 players on that list are on the roster today. The Rays have only 4 from that year.
Phil 9:04 PM
RosterResource has CLE second to STIL in number of homegrown players.
Phil 9:05 PM
Rays dead last.
Dan Szymborski 9:09 PM
Oooh, I should check my 2023 Guardians prospects
Dan Szymborski 9:11 PM
From ZiPS Top 200
Bo Naylor
Brayan Rocchio
Logan Allen
Tanner Bibee
Gavin Williams
Daniel Espino
Angel Martinez
George Valera
Juan Brito
Gabriel Arias
Tyler Freeman
Sean Dolinar 9:14 PM
That’s an impressive list.
lzfreak 9:15 PM
Lotta double plays already
Sean Dolinar 9:17 PM
This won’t be one though
coldbagel12 9:18 PM
Messick doesn't look as sharp as he usually does. The double plays are bailing him out.
lzfreak 9:22 PM
First to third on an infield hit!
Dan Szymborski 9:22 PM
That seemed fast even for Simpson
lzfreak 9:23 PM
Yeah as soon as that bounce went way up he hit another gear
Dan Szymborski 9:22 PM
It looked like he ran through first by liek 50 feet too
comradeyurika 9:23 PM
Ramirez not having a good inning
Sean Dolinar 9:23 PM
Bucknered
Sean Dolinar 9:23 PM
Bucknered
Matt Martell 9:24 PM
Oh my – rough two plays for J-Ram
lzfreak 9:24 PM
It's the green glove
Dan Szymborski 9:24 PM
Buckner's wasn't hit as hard!
Nick Smith 9:24 PM
I'm seeing double, 4 Seans!
Sean Dolinar 9:25 PM
4? Did the message send 4 times?
Nick Smith 9:26 PM
Simpsons reference.
Sean Dolinar 9:27 PM
lol, scared me that something was more wrong than just client sending twice.
Benny The Jet 9:24 PM
Yikes
lzfreak 9:26 PM edited
I wonder if Tyler Wells ever takes an at bat for Taylor Walls just to see if anyone is paying attention
bosoxforlife 9:28 PM
The ball Ramirez failed to come up with hit the edge of the infield grass and stayed down. It is impossible to foresee that and it is more like bad luck, but still an error, than anything else.
Dan Szymborski 9:28 PM
The Megan Fox commercial leaves it kind of ambiguous if she's trying to sell us the drug or she's actually the drug
Dan Szymborski 9:29 PM
J-Ram kinda has to wonder how come that's an error and the other 750 bloopers not by the Yankees are hits
Jon Becker 9:31 PM
Oh hell yeah Junior
Jon Becker 9:32 PM
Dan Szymborski 9:34 PM
I liked the competent inelegance of the Caminero catch as he kinda just threw his body in the general direction as a reaction and then caught it
Benny The Jet 9:41 PM
"That first pitch to Jo Adell was the fastest pitch of Freddy Peralta's career, including playoffs, at 99.4 mph" via the great Sarah Langs
Dan Szymborski 9:53 PM
I don't know how Sarah does it, she's way faster and more productive than 99% of us that don't need health aids.
bosoxforlife 9:43 PM
Fastball Freddy's heater is the definition of carry.
Nick Smith 9:43 PM
Hot take: HBPs shouldn't count if it hits your armor.
asf123 9:49 PM
I had the same thought, but I don’t think we want to incentivize “Wear it!” culture more.
bosoxforlife 9:52 PM
Don Baylor used to make no effort to avoid being hit by the pitch. Of course he was made of concrete.
asf123 9:53 PM
It’s at the point now where Little League kids are being pressured not to get out of the way.
Nick Smith 9:50 PM
That's fair.
asf123 9:51 PM
Jeez. Yet another inane challenge.
Dan Szymborski 9:53 PM
I was always told to not get out of the way in Little League tand that was 35-40 years ago
asf123 9:54 PM edited
Your coach was a sociopath ahead of his time!
Sean Dolinar 9:53 PM
I looked away for a second and not sure why you'd waste a challenge on that. At least it's not the first 3 innings.
Dan Szymborski 9:54 PM
And I didn't. I was an overcompetitive kid. I would lose my s%#@ about the mercy rule even if we were on the bad side of it
BigHurtBeer 9:54 PM
Fastball Freddie really needed to get away from the Mets. Put a bow on that performance.
jcathtraverse 9:56 PM
Where on earth did Petey Halpin come from? I've now watched a game and a half with him in the starting lineup, and I still have no idea who he is.
asf123 9:57 PM
San Mateo, CA, sez here.
asf123 9:57 PM
Man, they’ve really doubled down on that Sydney Sweeney ad.
Nick Smith 9:58 PM edited
I almost feel bad for her. It's like she blew her Euphoria money on ice sculpting lessons or something.
Sean Dolinar 10:02 PM
That sounds like investing in herself.
lzfreak 9:57 PM
Oof that's the shortstop's ball
Sean Dolinar 10:01 PM
We had Messick and Peralta going 5 IP for the median, and almost 5 IP for the mean. We were spot on for Messick. And short for Peralta.
asf123 10:01 PM
Wow, a pinch hitter without a mound visit? How often does that happen? It’s almost like they knew Palacios was on the roster before the game!
Dan Szymborski 10:03 PM
Guardians bats gotta do better than pop on toast
Pedantic A-hole 10:03 PM
This is a good series for undersized sluggers. Palacios , Mesa Jr., Hicks, and of course the great J-Ram
Dan Szymborski 10:05 PM
not so great for J-Ram's D!
Dan Szymborski 10:05 PM
Arby's commercials always make me a little sad because I'm reminded of my cat Galileo
asf123 10:08 PM edited
I saw your story about Galileo and Arby’s in a chat recently. It made me smile, surprised to know that Arby’s has done some small bit of good in this world. I’m glad you have those memories.
asf123 10:06 PM
I was saying how there’s no way Hicks should be starting against a lefty, but SSS >>> my brain.
bosoxforlife 10:06 PM
The Guardians started Hedges at catcher so they could use Bailey as a PH. I hope that sounds as ridiculous to others as it does to me as I write it.
Nick Smith 10:07 PM
Gotta keep the other team thinking. Zag when they expect you to zig, etc.
lzfreak 10:08 PM
It's amazing how often in recent postseasons Vogt has had Hedges at bat in extremely high leverage situations. Now he has competition for that spot!
Dan Szymborski 10:06 PM
"I put my hand on the stove because it feels so amazing when I take it off!"
Phil 10:08 PM
Was that punitive for heading to first early?
Dan Szymborski 10:08 PM
He LOOOOVED Arby's. I couldn't eat Arby's for a year after he died. I mean, he was 20, so he was a really old cat, but still miss the guy because he was the cat who was invariably around me when I was working, including all ZiPS work from origin to 2019.
coldbagel12 10:09 PM
Vogt has been having Hedges and Bailey pinch hit for each other all year. Drives me up a wall
asf123 10:11 PM
Gotta think of it as more of a catcher funging than pinch hitting, I guess.
coldbagel12 10:14 PM
Yeah, that's how he uses it. I just wish he'd pinch hit someone else then make a defensive sub. Although it's not like there's a slugger on the bench.
Dan Szymborski 10:11 PM
I was gonna dispute the factoid, but I didn't realize that Kwan was THAT good total in the second half. 155 wRC+
lzfreak 10:11 PM
You are allowed to pinch hit with a non catcher though
Dan Szymborski 10:11 PM
I mean, he turned it on, but I didn't see the number
Dan Szymborski 10:13 PM
I like when they mention Booser, because it's always in a situation where saying boozer sounds funny
Dan Szymborski 10:13 PM
THERE'S A BOOSER GETTING WARMED UP
asf123 10:14 PM
He’s actually a recovering alcoholic.
Dan Szymborski 10:14 PM
OH geez, I didn't know that
asf123 10:15 PM
True story.
Dan Szymborski 10:15 PM
Not a convenient name to have
asf123 10:15 PM
I know, right?
Dan Szymborski 10:15 PM
My dad drank himself to death, but he didn't have an ironic name.
Nick Smith 10:15 PM
How would you explain changing it, though?
Dan Szymborski 10:16 PM
"Call a lawyer?"
asf123 10:16 PM
I just read an article about him the other day. He was out of baseball when he was 27 due to injuries, which led to depression and addiction. But he made it back. So, major hat tip.
Dan Szymborski 10:17 PM
Seems like it's a story i should have remembered. Good story
asf123 10:19 PM
I mean, these days there’s always a chance that the article was a total AI fake, but it seems unlikely that a fake article about a Rays reliever would be real high on anyone’s AI priority list.
bosoxforlife 10:17 PM
Not the matchup Cash would want here.
Dan Szymborski 10:18 PM
Man, Adell looked horrible on that changeup
Matt Martell 10:18 PM
I want to see another Jo Adell triple
Dan Szymborski 10:18 PM
That was not a good at bat for Adell
Matt Martell 10:19 PM
Yes, I'm still here – just went down a deep rabbit hole looking for the best World Series performances from players on losing teams
jj1986 10:21 PM
Lenny Dykstra was tearing it up in 1993
Matt Martell 10:28 PM
Yes, Dykstra is on the list
Matt Martell 10:19 PM
A 6-inning rabbit hole
Phil 10:24 PM
Sorry if I sent you down it! But I'd be curious to see the answer. Wondering about CWPA, too.
Matt Martell 10:25 PM
Send it as a mailbag question!
Nick Smith 10:21 PM
Yikes! Terrible bunt.
bosoxforlife 10:22 PM
I mentioned that I watched him several times in Worcester and thought nothing of it. He was just an old never-will-be. Perusing his history shows he did not appear in organized ball between his 26-28 year old years.
lzfreak 10:22 PM
Armstrong is a good name for a pitcher
Rich Hill's Fastball 10:23 PM
Certainly better than Flimsyelbow
lzfreak 10:23 PM
The Twins used to have a starter named Kevin Slowey
asf123 10:25 PM
And the guy actually named Tommy John ended up having to have Tommy John surgery. How ironic is that?
Dan Szymborski 10:25 PM
Don't get me started on Lou Gehrig!
lzfreak 10:26 PM
Cy Young never won a Cy Young award
Nick Smith 10:29 PM edited
I hate to break it to you about Bill Goodenough.
asf123 10:26 PM edited
In retrospect, it seems inevitable.
Keith 10:27 PM
Why wasn’t Kwan sent home on the double? I thought he was fast.
bosoxforlife 10:30 PM
I couldn't believe he wasn't sent. I guess the 3rd base coach was afraid of him being thrown out in the 1 in 10 chance that might have happened. I hate 3rd base scared 3rd base coaches as you might have ascertained.
asf123 10:29 PM
Will there ever come a point at which people decide they’ve had their fill of Day-O, “boom boom boom and let me hear you say hey-o” and “Everybody clap your hands!”? Can we poll that?
jcathtraverse 10:33 PM
I much prefer "everybody clap your hands" to the relatively recent alternative "I can make your hands clap"
lzfreak 10:34 PM
Yeah I don't love a disembodied voice bragging about how he has control over my body
asf123 10:34 PM
Rotten potato, rotten potahto.
Solitaire 10:39 PM
Jeff Sullivan once live-blogged a Mariners game which included a post "everybody clap your hands clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clap" and I will never not laugh about that now
Sean Dolinar 10:53 PM
We’ll do a stadium chant poll tomor
asf123 10:35 PM
The “free mound visit for a pinch hitter” rule is such a farce.
asf123 10:35 PM
“Gotta give the pitcher the scouting report,” my ass.
Dan Szymborski 10:48 PM
I'm grumpy and never ever participate in fan things, even as a kid
Phil 10:49 PM
One of my earliest memoried is my older brothrr explaining why the wave is stupid.
asf123 10:50 PM
I just genuinely don’t get why people apparently like the same five sound bites over and over and over and over again for years on end.
bosoxforlife 10:51 PM
Another of life's imponderables. How did Bryan Baker morph into Mariano Rivera?
Phil 10:51 PM
That's just Ray Magic.
lzfreak 10:52 PM
You should see what they did with the Butcher and the candlestick maker
asf123 10:51 PM
Patrick Bailey, pinch hitter, folks.
l

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/members-only-game-thread-alcs-oct-13-2026/

Effectively Wild Episode 2543: Lost Angeles Ben Lindbergh and Meg ...

2026-10-15T20:10:37Z

Effectively Wild Episode 2543: Lost Angeles

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the end of the all-AL-Central ALDS, what the future holds for the White Sox, the ALCS opener, the Brewers’ 2-0 NLCS lead, the contrast between postseason Shohei Ohtani and José Ramírez, the difference between the Rays and Guardians, and more, plus postscript follow-ups.
Audio intro: Ian Phillips, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: Harold Walker, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Link to Sox strikeouts fact
Link to team batting ages
Link to Clemens on Venable
Link to Ramírez fun fact 1
Link to Ramírez fun fact 2
Link to Ramírez fun fact 3
Link to Sheehan on the CSes
Link to Rays influence story
Link to Turang fact
Link to AP challenges story
Link to Dodgers challenges story
Link to Clemens on clean innings
Link to Bailey splits
Link to Patty Barrels nickname
Link to Little John wiki
Link to Picard monologue
Link to John Locke clip
Link to Brewers bullpen stat
Link to Espino wiki
Link to Salazar wiki
Link to De Paula and Soto
Link to ZiPS NLCS odds
Link to ZiPS ALCS odds
Link to RR payrolls page
Link to RR roster breakdown
Link to Sam’s Rays tweet
Link to Sam on Rays trades
Link to Sam on NLCS G1
Link to Ohtani article 1
Link to Ohtani article 2
Link to Torre/A-Rod article
Link to Episode 2030 wiki
Link to Pope Leo diagnosis
Link to exemptions update
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Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-2543-lost-angeles/

Boston Smith Caught Kade Anderson on the Farm and Aspires To Mash ...

2026-10-15T19:59:48Z

Boston Smith Caught Kade Anderson on the Farm and Aspires To Mash as a Mariner

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Boston Smith emerged as a prospect to watch this year. Notably, he did so while spending the latter portion of the campaign with his third organization in just his second professional season. Selected in the sixth round of the 2025 draft out of Wright State University by the Washington Nationals, Smith was subsequently swapped to the White Sox the following March in exchange for Curtis Mead, then dealt from Chicago to Seattle at this summer’s trade deadline. The Mariners acquired the 23-year-old left-handed-hitting catcher, along with Seranthony Domínguez and Nolan Jones, in exchange for Luis Castillo.
Smith’s 2026 performance was quite promising. Playing at three levels, primarily High-A and Double-A — he also appeared in eight games in Low-A — Smith slammed 31 home runs while slashing .274/.424/.566 with a 158 wRC+ over 493 plate appearances. Unranked when our White Sox Top Prospects list came out prior to the season, he is now ranked 13th in the Mariners system with a 40 FV.
In our Arizona Fall League preview — Smith is currently suiting up for the Peoria Javelinas — Eric Longenhagen described the Dayton, Ohio native as “a pull-oriented catcher” who “isn’t a good defender yet.” Our lead prospect analyst also offered an interesting comp, pointing to how “that had been true for Liam Hicks, who as a prospect was likewise “a small school, undersized guy who had outlier pull data.”
Smith discussed his player profile, as well as what it was like to catch one of baseball’s top pitching prospects upon joining a new organization, during the first week of the AFL season.
———
David Laurila: You caught Kade Anderson almost immediately after coming over in the trade. What was that experience like?
Boston Smith: “I don’t get too nervous anymore, but I was very nervous to catch him. I obviously knew who he was through college, he was the third-overall pick [in 2025], and then there was the year he was having. So yeah, I was nervous. I wanted to be trustworthy and help him succeed, not be catching him for the first time and having no idea what to do if all of a sudden he started struggling.”
Laurila: That didn’t happen. Looking at the game log, he pitched very well.
Smith: “Yes, and he was by far one of the most mature human beings I’ve ever been around. He was very generous, very helpful, helping me be calm before the game. He even brought me waters. Then, after the outing, the next day, talking about it.
“When he got the call to The Show — I had only known him for two weeks — he hugged me and said, ‘Hey man, thanks for everything you did for me,’ You just don’t see human beings like that too often, especially ones who are so talented. He’s a big league human being as well as a big league pitcher. It was really, really special to me to be able to catch him and know that I was a part of his minor league career for that little bit.”
Laurila: Those qualities aside, what was it like to he behind the plate for him? Have you ever caught anyone who approximates his combination of moxie and stuff?
Smith: “I would say it was one of the coolest combinations of him knowing himself and having one of the most competitive mindsets. He had this fire in him. It was cool, because most of the time he knew exactly what he wanted to do. I just had to lay down whatever finger he wanted, and I trusted him. Man, just his ability to know himself and to pitch to his strengths all the time was really cool.”
Laurila: Was he calling his own pitches?
Smith: “No. He would shake, obviously, like most pitchers will. There were probably times where he pre-gripped changeup and would just wait until I gave him the four, then would throw a changeup. But no, he trusted me. Kade told me that right away. He said, ‘I trust what you call and I’m going to throw it with conviction.’ He did a really nice job with that.”
Laurila: You have a lot of catching experience, but have also spent time as both an infielder and an outfielder. What are the plans going forward?
Smith: “Right now I would say that 95% of my chips are going in on catching. While I’m still a minor leaguer, while I’m still developing, the Mariners are doing a really nice job of working with me every day, including having me learn another staff, and also getting here to catch more innings. I think that is what they would like: developing my defensive tools behind the plate. But it hasn’t been direct. There is still the opportunity for me to play left field or right field, or maybe second base. Versatility is always going to be in my back pocket, something that is part of my game.”
Laurila: Your bat is your carrying tool. Do you consider yourself a power hitter?
Smith: “No. I try not to.”
Laurila: You did hit 31 bombs this year…
Smith: “God is good. God is very good. But in my cage work it’s backside line drives all day. I don’t ever try to pull the ball for a home run in BP. Maybe I will give myself three in a BP round, but my weakness right now is staying on a ball and going backside, being adjustable. I want to see how good I can be with my bat-to-ball skills and being a pure hitter. I want the home runs be a product of the pitchers’ mistakes.”
Laurila: A report I read said that you have good pull-side power…
Smith: “I’ve always been able to pull the ball in the air for power. That’s a talent God blessed me with. But again, my weakness is being able to go backside and staying adjustable to multiple pitches. Working the counts and being adjustable is something I work on every single day.”
Laurila: Changing direction a bit, what has it been like to not only get traded twice, but to be dealt for players who possess good MLB résumés?
Smith: “The first one was the weirdest, because I was with the Nationals for such a short period of time. And to go one-for-one with Curtis Mead was very surprising. Being a part of the Castillo trade was certainly… I mean, I grew up watching him with the Reds. I’m an Ohio guy, so it was quite a moment to be part of a trade involving someone like him.
“Even so, at the end of the day, the game stays the same. I just like to go out there and have fun. It’s a great group here [in the Arizona Fall League], and this is almost like being traded again. I’m learning a brand new pitching staff, a new team, so it’s not unfamiliar to me. I’m just going out there and putting a smile on my face, being a good teammate and hopefully somebody that my teammates want to play with.”
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/boston-smith-caught-kade-anderson-on-the-farm-and-aspires-to-mash-as-a-mariner/

Rays Bask in Afterglow of 3-1 Win Over Guardians, Series Heads to ...

2026-10-15T19:48:59Z

Rays Bask in Afterglow of 3-1 Win Over Guardians, Series Heads to Cleveland! Tied 1-1

During the regular season, Tampa Bay’s defense ranked fifth in runs scored, while Cleveland’s offense ranked 24th in runs allowed. After giving up seven runs to the Guardians in Game 1, the Rays entered Game 2 at risk of dropping both games at their home ballpark in Florida. So I did my best to lay to rest All of the bodies that have ever been on my body And in my mind, they sink into the swamp…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rays-bask-in-afterglow-of-3-1-win-over-guardians-series-heads-to-cleveland-tied-1-1/

Discovering an Underlying Pattern in the 1911 T201 Mecca Double ...

2026-10-15T19:38:39Z

Discovering an Underlying Pattern in the 1911 T201 Mecca Double Folders Set

The 1911 T201 Mecca Double Folders set is known for its folding design. Open the card and one player appears at full length. Fold the upper section down and a second player’s torso replaces the first while sharing the same lower body. That mechanical feature draws attention, but the checklist itself shows a clear pattern … Continue reading "Discovering an Underlying Pattern in the 1911 T201 Mecca Double Folders Set"

https://sabrbaseballcards.blog/2026/08/29/discovering-an-underlying-pattern-in-the-1911-t201-mecca-double-folders-set/

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Members-Only Game Thread: LCS – Oct 15, 2026 Welcome to our ...

2026-10-15T19:28:39Z

Members-Only Game Thread: LCS – Oct 15, 2026

Welcome to our Open Game Thread for the LCS games today. Chat with fellow readers as we watch the Rays play the Guardians then later tonight the Brewers play the Dodgers! Only Members can participate, and unlike our usual staff Q&A chats, your messages will be posted immediately.
Our Member community is made up of thousands of incredibly knowledgable baseball fans, and we think this is a great way to follow a game with like-minded baseball enthusiasts. We might even have some FanGraphs Staff drop in and join the fun. Please be courteous to your fellow Members, or you may find your chat privileges revoked.
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/members-only-game-thread-lcs-oct-15-2026/

When Topps Had Bottoms In 1986 Topps introduced something new to ...

2026-10-15T19:18:27Z

When Topps Had Bottoms

In 1986 Topps introduced something new to its flagship offering: box bottom cards. In truth, the cards weren’t completely new since Donruss had already done similar the year before and, as Nick and Artie note in the comments, Topps had done similar with hanger boxes of its 1984 Baseball Stickers. Still, the cards were a … Continue reading "When Topps Had Bottoms"

https://sabrbaseballcards.blog/2026/09/01/topps-box-bottom-leaderboard/

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Breaking Down Jake Bauers’ 11-Pitch Masterclass Whether or not ...

2026-10-15T19:08:22Z

Breaking Down Jake Bauers’ 11-Pitch Masterclass

Whether or not you tuned in for Game 3 of the NLCS between the Brewers and the Dodgers, you surely know by now that the highlight of the game belonged to Jake Bauers. After working a back-breaking 12-pitch walk that hastened Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s early departure from Game 2, Bauers put the Brewers ahead with a homer in the seventh inning on the 11th pitch he saw from Blake Snell. Ben Clemens…
Source

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/breaking-down-jake-bauers-11-pitch-masterclass/

The first star of the Hudson Valley: Dan Brouthers in cards When ...

2026-10-15T18:22:55Z

The first star of the Hudson Valley: Dan Brouthers in cards

When Dan Brouthers died in 1932 at his daughter’s home in East Orange, NJ, the news was big enough to be on the front page of the Poughkeepsie Eagle-News in his home county of Dutchess. He had grown up in Wappingers Falls (being born close by in Sylvan Lake), a 15 minute drive from Poughkeepsie. … Continue reading "The first star of the Hudson Valley: Dan Brouthers in cards"

https://sabrbaseballcards.blog/2026/09/05/the-first-star-of-the-hudson-valley-dan-brouthers-in-cards/

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