Nostr notes by Phil (Unofficial)

Five Most Popular Posts in October It is increasingly ...

2026-11-01T19:15:29Z

Five Most Popular Posts in October

It is increasingly preposterous to produce a countdown of the five most popular posts when the previous month only saw six or seven, but I do have a taste for the absurd. Here's what did the business in October.
1. Evading the Simple Fact
2. The Clear Blue Water Strategy
3. Undercover in Reform
4. John Healey's Little Budget
5. Local Council By-Elections October 2026
Up at October's top is my piece looking at the attacks being made on Zack Polanski and the Green Party in the aftermath of their coming second in Keir Starmer's old seat. What these reveal is a deal of complacency from a media and Labour establishment who want to see the Greens written off. In at two were my views on Kemi Badenoch's speech to the Conservative Party. I watch these things so you don't have to. This reiterated a strategic pivot back towards treating Labour as their primary opponent, largely thanks to the Tories taking the media view that Reform are a busted flush. You wouldn't think the two parties are level pegging in the polls. Third was ITV's undercover investigation of repellent and racist views in Reform. A confirmation of what most people already knew, but it might help toxify them for the Farage-curious. Following up were a few small reflections on John Healey's equally limited budget. One for fixing the small things, but not without political cost. And lastly there is the round up of council by-elections. The first time in Reform's history that they ended a month with a net loss of seats.
What's going on in November? There are a couple of drafts bubbling under, so we'll see if energy/motivation is up to it.
Image Credit

https://averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com/2026/11/five-most-popular-posts-in-october.html

#popularposts #october #reform #johnhealey #simplefact #waterstrategy #greenparty #bluewater #clearblue #labour

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Local Council By-Elections October 2026 This month saw 49,764 ...

2026-10-31T03:26:06Z

Local Council By-Elections October 2026

This month saw 49,764 votes cast in 26 local authority contests. All percentages are rounded to the nearest single decimal place. 15 council seats changed hands. For comparison with September's results, see here.
Party
Number of Candidates
Total Vote
%
+/- Sep
+/- Oct 25
Avge/
Contest
+/-
Seats
Conservative
26
11,789
23.7%
+5.4
+7.9
453
+2
Labour
23
11,495
23.1%
+0.0
+10.6
500
+2
Lib Dem
19
5,225
10.5%
-1.8
-14.4
275
0
Reform
26
10,225
20.5%
+3.8
-9.4
393
-3
Green
17
4,107
8.3%
-11.3
+0.3
242
0
SNP*
4
3,162
6.4%
-0.4
+4.4
791
+1
PC**
1
397
0.8%
+0.1
+0.8
397
+1
Ind***
12
1,286
2.6%
+1.7
-2.4
107
-4
Other****
17
2,078
4.2%
+2.3
+2.1
122
+1
* There were four by-elections in Scotland
** There were two by-elections in Wales
*** There were two Independent clashes
**** Others this month were Christian People's Alliance (26), Flint People's Voice (566), Heritage Party (10), Independence for Scotland (95), Restore (246, 228, 159, 151, 134, 124, 91, 79, 76, 72, 55), SPGB (9), Yorkshire Party (57)
Another month of firsts! The first time Restore fielded more than 10 candidates. The first time Labour reported a net gain in councillors since August 2024. And, for the first time in the party's history, Reform ended a month with an overall loss of seats. If anyone was in any doubt, the Labour revival is real. The Reform decline is real. But, just edging it, the Tories were this month's winners. Can we take that as evidence of the so-called Keminaissance too? As the party has enjoyed a modest recovery in the polls, and is scrapping with Reform for second place again it would be churlish not to concede the point.
This is far from the return of "proper" politics though. Labour, for example, continue to post a recovery in raw votes. But the net gains are a combination of this and Restore's very helpful interventions. By my reckoning, Rupert Lowe's retinue of fascists denied Reform six victories in total, all bar one to Labour's benefit. A warning there to Reform that even they can't ride the tiger of racist politics forever. It will turn around and eat you eventually.
Looking at November, there are 24 by-elections to keep us interested. 10 are Labour defences, and seven are currently held by Reform. It could get bloody.
1 October
Blackpool, Claremont, Lab hold
Highland, Wick & East Caithness, LDem gain from Ind
North West Leicestershire, Long Whatton & Diseworth, Con hold
Northumberland, Amble, Lab gain from Ref
Northumberland, Hirst, Lab gain from Ref
Stirling, Forth & Endrick, Con hold
8 October
Aberdeen, Rosemount/Midstocket, SNP hold
Amber Valley, Kilburn, Denby, Holbrook & Horsley, Grn gain from Con
Lambeth, Myatt's Fields, Lab hold
Newcastle-under-Lyme, Town, Lab gain from Ref
13 October
Stroud, Rodborough, Lab hold
15 October
Flintshire, Higher Kinnerton, Oth gain from Ind
Leicestershire, Shepshed, Lab gain from Ref
Mid Devon, Bradninch, LDem hold
Wiltshire, Salisbury Milford, LDem hold
22 October
Carmarthenshire, Saron, PC gain from Lab
East Hertfordshire, Hertford Kingsmead, Con gain from Grn
Leeds, Calverley & Farsley, Con gain from Lab
South Kesteven, Grantham St Wulfram's, Con gain from Ind
Wychavon, Hartlebury, Con hold
29 October
Argyll & Bute, Mid Argyll, SNP gain from Ind
Bassetlaw, Worksop East, Ref gain from Lab
Dudley, St James, Lab gain from Ref
Halton, Beechwood & Heath, Ref gain from LDem
Newark & Sherwood, Dover Beck, Con hold
Nottinghamshire, Southwell, Con hold

https://averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com/2026/10/local-council-by-elections-october-2026.html

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John Healey's Little Budget Apart from stiffing recent ...

2026-10-29T10:28:05Z

John Healey's Little Budget

Apart from stiffing recent graduates and dragging more people into higher tax bands, Martin Lewis was quite pleased with John Healey's budget statement. Which fits the label Aditya Chakrabortty applied to it: this was a budget to please everybody's favourite money expert. But what about the politics?
This was far from the big offer Andy Burnham sold during his Labour leadership conference speech. Of the 10-year plan, there was nary a sign. Instead, this was a tinkerer's budget but one designed to land with a minimum of fuss. For example, £100 for everyone in council tax bands A to D to offset the projected hundred quid rise in the energy price cap will be appreciated. The scrapping of the standing charge and absorbing it into gas bills is redistributive in intent, and ticks the fairness box with those consuming the most expecting to pay more. Though pensioners dependent on heating and larger families might not be as sanguine. Likewise, taking tariffs off selected food products will save a few coins here and there. One not likely to make much of a difference to household budgets, but a decent indicator that the government understands cost of living pressures and are being seen to take action.
If, however, one's budget earns an item of praise from Kemi Badenoch then something has gone wrong. In her reply to Healey, she welcomed his abandonment of efforts to equalise the minimum wage. In Tory land, fairness means you're less entitled to the same standard of living if you're under the age of 21. For the Conservative leader, this is something business has been lobbying for and will boost hiring rates and tackle the so-called NEET crisis. Will it though? What drives hiring are markets, the conditions determining whether hiring new employees offers a profitable return. Age wage differentials offer marginal help to small and medium-sized businesses. It's big business that would pocket most of the savings, and so won't do much if anything to lower the rates of younger people signing on. The more serious political problem for the chancellor is the freezing of the threshold for student loan repayments. Over 21s working full time on the minimum wage will now be liable for repayments, a true giveth with one hand and taketh with another measure almost designed to keep the Greens' lead among younger layers a semi-permanent feature of British politics.
The wider politics of this was about keeping British business mollified, and given the endorsements Healey reeled off at the beginning of his speech that mission has been accomplished. The big promises made are light years from the Bolshevist dread that seizes the imaginaries of hyper-class conscious sections of capital whenever the meekest mild social democratic policies are raised. And so this settled jitters, drew sharp distinctions with the recklessness of the Liz Truss budget, made the doom-mongering of the right wing press look ridiculous, and keeps the government on the public's right side.
Image Credit

https://averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com/2026/10/john-healeys-little-budget.html

#johnhealey #budget #martinlewis #adityachakrabortty #andyburnham #british #kemibadenoch

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