Nostr notes by Adam Isacson

#Peru's current election count: with 93.2% of ballots ...

2026-06-08T14:55:45Z

#Peru's current election count: with 93.2% of ballots counted, the candidates are 0.132 percentage points apart.

"Nailbiter" barely begins to describe it.

Count: https://resultadosegundavuelta.onpe.gob.pe/main/resumen

Video shows a stationary boat with 2 engines. If there's a ...

2026-04-14T01:43:29Z

Video shows a stationary boat with 2 engines. If there's a cargo hold, it's certainly not a big one.

Also: "applying total systemic friction?" What a sad, bowels-of-the-Pentagon PowerPoint slide nonsense way to say "killing people with no self-defense justification or due process."

https://bit.ly/4cjbZTr

CNN reports that the military plane that crashed in southern ...

2026-03-24T12:13:42Z

CNN reports that the military plane that crashed in southern Colombia yesterday was a 1965-vintage C-130H Hercules "donated to the Colombian Air Force by the US Air Force in September 2020." (https://cnn.it/4t5DHKm)

Here's the donation, in DOD's Excess Defense Articles database, one of a few C-130s transferred to Colombia through this program (https://bit.ly/eda-dbase):

Looks like a seasonal uptick in migrant encounters at the border. ...

2026-03-20T20:20:21Z

Looks like a seasonal uptick in migrant encounters at the border. If so, expect March to be greater.

https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/nationwide-encounters

Convinced that supply issues aren't going to get any better ...

2026-03-14T20:55:34Z

Convinced that supply issues aren't going to get any better (AI bubble, Iran war, fuel prices), I just ordered a new desktop — the best I can afford — even though my current one could probably last another year.

Apple will have it ready for me by… July 7.

New WOLA Podcast: Expectations are rising in Venezuela, but they ...

2026-03-11T17:33:48Z

New WOLA Podcast:

Expectations are rising in Venezuela, but they will not be met without transparency, accountability, democracy, and the rule of law. Yet the Trump administration appears focused narrowly on oil production.

Here's a great conversation with Francisco Monaldi and Laura Dib: https://www.wola.org/multimedia/oil-and-the-rule-of-law-in-venezuela/

The last Republican showed up after some delay. So the resolution ...

2026-01-22T22:39:13Z

In reply to nevent1q…9649
_________________________

The last Republican showed up after some delay.

So the resolution that would've prevented unauthorized "boots on the ground" in Venezuela went down in both houses of Congress by the thinnest margins mathematically possible. (50-51 in Senate, 215-215 in House.)

These are the ridiculous lengths to which they'll go to ...

2026-01-22T22:34:21Z

These are the ridiculous lengths to which they'll go to placate the White House and give up Congress's power to approve the use of military force.

Dulles Airport is 45 minutes away, even without traffic.

https://bsky.app/profile/fritschner.bsky.social/post/3md27svggvc2n

Wow, despite a 2-year-old US-backed security crackdown and ...

2026-01-22T12:56:42Z

Wow, despite a 2-year-old US-backed security crackdown and presidential "armed conflict" declaration, #Ecuador's homicide rate rose to 50.91 per 100,000 in 2025

That's up from 47 in 2023 and 39 in 2024, and almost certainly the highest in Latin America (other than some Caribbean islands).

https://www.primicias.ec/seguridad/ecuador-homicidios-asesinatos-violencia-crimen-organizado-2025-114304/

What impact are the US boat strikes having, besides killing ...

2026-01-21T20:26:55Z

What impact are the US boat strikes having, besides killing >124 people?

- October-December 2024: 7,764 pounds of cocaine seized at the US-Mexico border.
- October-December 2025: 10,593 pounds of cocaine seized.

Cocaine is up 34% year-over-year *despite* the boat strikes.

Data: https://bit.ly/4bJOeFs

Here's a video version of WOLA's latest podcast episode, ...

2026-01-21T19:18:23Z

Here's a video version of WOLA's latest podcast episode, on where to go now after Trump's first year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qeUYLoaZKUg

I was going to appear on a right-leaning cable news network over ...

2026-01-21T01:58:55Z

I was going to appear on a right-leaning cable news network over the weekend to talk about Minneapolis and ICE. They asked for some talking points ahead of time, and I sent the following. Within an hour, I got "unfortunately, we will need to cancel for today."

https://adamisacson.com/talking-points-that-didnt-make-it/

Podcast: Trump was inaugurated 1 year ago today. A review with my ...

2026-01-20T18:14:27Z

Podcast: Trump was inaugurated 1 year ago today. A review with my colleagues Maureen Meyer and Carolina Jiménez lays out the hard work that lies ahead for rescuing democracy and human rights in U.S. policy toward Latin America.

https://www.wola.org/multimedia/a-year-into-the-trump-administration-we-are-in-untested-waters/

Latin America-Related Events in Washington and Online This Week 6 ...

2026-01-17T14:22:43Z

Latin America-Related Events in Washington and Online This Week

6 events about Latin America this week, that I know about, that can be attended in person in Washington or online anywhere.

https://adamisacson.com/latin-america-related-events-in-washington-and-online-this-week-99/

I'll take "Headlines I'm completely not used to ...

2026-01-16T23:30:22Z

I'll take "Headlines I'm completely not used to seeing" for $800, Alex.

CBP has updated its dataset through December. It points to a ...

2026-01-16T23:23:26Z

CBP has updated its dataset through December. It points to a winter decline in migration at the US-Mexico border.

Past patterns suggest a further drop in January, followed by sharp increases in March-April.

Here's Border Patrol apprehensions, at my table-generating site cbpdata.adamisacson.com :

2026, when news photos of Colombian guerrillas and U.S. law ...

2026-01-16T18:28:17Z

2026, when news photos of Colombian guerrillas and U.S. law enforcement are virtually indistinguishable.

In a hearing yesterday, Sen. Kaine (D-VA) said some enigmatic ...

2026-01-16T18:06:19Z

In a hearing yesterday, Sen. Kaine (D-VA) said some enigmatic things, referring to classified briefings, about whether the Trump admin really cared about whether there were drugs aboard the boats being struck in the Caribbean and Pacific.

About 1:25 into the video here: https://bit.ly/4aZ0YYw

Looks like ICE deportation flights to Venezuela have resumed. ...

2026-01-16T13:08:42Z

Looks like ICE deportation flights to Venezuela have resumed.

https://bsky.app/profile/iceflightmonitor.bsky.social/post/3mcjygrfvhc2t

They killed the 60 Minutes CECOT torture story, but waved this ...

2026-01-16T03:22:56Z

They killed the *60 Minutes* CECOT torture story, but waved this one right on through.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2026/jan/15/cbs-news-ice-officer-injuries

Nostr event nevent1qqs9x85jp5ck2sj3jr3ktqcm90skrkqfra3sd9gda4e89t8424smtxgzyr30nj3h0npu3atgnwj5c4tage4hd569swysqls8s2zr9hpsjggf57z8s7n

2026-01-15T22:43:30Z

Did he at least let her have the FIFA peace prize

Whether sprinting away from the J6 rioters, trying to ambush me ...

2026-01-15T01:40:05Z

Whether sprinting away from the J6 rioters, trying to ambush me in a hearing this time last year (https://bit.ly/4sCwnXb), or chickening out and changing his vote today, Josh Hawley is just an especially hot mess during the month of January.

The Venezuela War Powers resolution failed to move forward, by a ...

2026-01-15T01:39:48Z

In reply to nevent1q…zdlr
_________________________

The Venezuela War Powers resolution failed to move forward, by a 50-51 vote. Though Republicans have a 53-47 majority, JD Vance had to break the tie.

Consideration of the Venezuela War Powers resolution has begun on ...

2026-01-14T22:07:59Z

Consideration of the Venezuela War Powers resolution has begun on the Senate floor: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/floor_activity_pail.htm

In Latin America, a big step in 1980s/90s transitions from ...

2026-01-14T20:39:19Z

In Latin America, a big step in 1980s/90s transitions from military dictatorship to civilian rule was to stop trying civilians in military courtrooms.

This isn’t exactly that, but having civilians prosecuted by people in uniform is a big step toward Latin America's "bad old days"—here in the US.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/13/politics/pentagon-military-lawyers-minneapolis-immigration-crackdown

This thread as a single post: ...

2026-01-14T19:40:40Z

In reply to nevent1q…wa0p
_________________________

This thread as a single post: https://adamisacson.com/the-perils-of-boots-on-the-ground-and-the-urgency-of-the-venezuela-war-powers-resolution/

Longer video explanation, with transcript: https://adamisacson.com/video-dont-sleepwalk-into-a-big-military-mission-in-venezuela/

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/115884622926499166 Re-upping this ...

2026-01-14T19:23:42Z

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/115884622926499166

Re-upping this thread because the Venezuela War Powers resolution is before the Senate today.

- The list of potential armed opponents is long.
- Plausible scenarios exist for "boots on the ground."
- Congress must assert itself because we haven't seen any plan for these scenarios.

quoting
note1rrw…2z0r

From WOLA:

The Trump administration has not ruled out having military “boots on the ground” in Venezuela.

What would that entail? Shouldn’t Congress have a say? That’s what the War Powers Resolution, up for a Senate vote this week, is all about. 🧵

(1/12)

FYI this House Foreign Affairs Dems #Venezuela briefing is ...

2026-01-14T13:29:09Z

FYI this House Foreign Affairs Dems #Venezuela briefing is scheduled to start livestreaming in 2 minutes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qksz-EgUtSk

I paid my first and only visit to Venezuela 20 years ago this ...

2026-01-14T02:22:49Z

I paid my first and only visit to Venezuela 20 years ago this month. I wrote a blog entry about it (it was the heyday of blogs).

I was in listening mode, but because I work on demilitarization, I was skeptical.

From the Internet Archive: https://web.archive.org/web/20060202181338/https://www.democracyarsenal.org/2006/01/random_notes_on.html

Venezuela is the size of Texas plus Utah put together. It's a ...

2026-01-14T01:41:10Z

Venezuela is the size of Texas plus Utah put together. It's a place where the capacity to carry out violence is dispersed.

There's nothing wrong with demanding that, before the administration takes our armed forces down a slippery slope, Congress first gets to sign off on it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONB6MMNdjiQ

It’s light after 5:00pm in Washington now. ...

2026-01-13T22:15:45Z

It’s light after 5:00pm in Washington now.

Here's a transcript. ...

2026-01-13T17:23:54Z

In reply to nevent1q…36sz
_________________________

Here's a transcript.

https://adamisacson.com/video-dont-sleepwalk-into-a-big-military-mission-in-venezuela/

Ahead of tomorrow’s (Wednesday 14) likely Senate vote on the ...

2026-01-13T17:23:45Z

Ahead of tomorrow’s (Wednesday 14) likely Senate vote on the Venezuela War Powers Resolution, here’s a video explainer digging into

(a) scenarios that could lead to “boots on the ground” and an open-ended military mission in Venezuela, and

(b) the constellation of armed groups that U.S. personnel might have to confront if those scenarios become reality.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONB6MMNdjiQ

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/115855983101312145 5 days since ...

2026-01-13T14:06:15Z

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/115855983101312145

5 days since posting, this podcast episode with my two Venezuela-specialist colleagues has already broken our record for most listens in its first week.

quoting
note1ua0…x60k

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/115854790795328125

Here's a video version of today's podcast episode, con letra en español.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CET-b9ChqT8
note1rha…c2tp

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/115884622926499166 This thread, as ...

2026-01-12T23:32:30Z

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/115884622926499166

This thread, as a single post: https://adamisacson.com/the-perils-of-boots-on-the-ground-and-the-urgency-of-the-venezuela-war-powers-resolution/

quoting
note1rrw…2z0r

From WOLA:

The Trump administration has not ruled out having military “boots on the ground” in Venezuela.

What would that entail? Shouldn’t Congress have a say? That’s what the War Powers Resolution, up for a Senate vote this week, is all about. 🧵

(1/12)

Sources consulted in this thread about armed actors: 1. Carlos ...

2026-01-12T23:07:33Z

In reply to nevent1q…x88j
_________________________

Sources consulted in this thread about armed actors:

1. Carlos Ruiz-Hernández at Foreign Policy foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/11/v...

2. RESDAL atlas of security in the Americas bit.ly/49oFiCw

3. Andrés Izarra cited at the Guardian bit.ly/3LzyzxL

4. Crisis Group in 2020 bit.ly/4qf6DhL

(12/12) Here is that resolution. Congress must assert its ...

2026-01-12T23:06:42Z

In reply to nevent1q…4c2z
_________________________

(12/12) Here is that resolution. Congress must assert its democratic, constitutional power to decide whether or not to authorize the use of force. There must be no green light for a vague, improvised, and complicated military mission in South America.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-joint-resolution/98

(11/12) 52 Senators voted last Thursday to bring up a resolution ...

2026-01-12T23:05:58Z

In reply to nevent1q…l08u
_________________________

(11/12) 52 Senators voted last Thursday to bring up a resolution to ensure that Congress specifically approves any further involvement of U.S. troops in hostilities in Venezuela.

https://bit.ly/49hsBe6

Given the risks laid out here, that’s a reasonable demand.

(10/12) It might not be a full-blown “civil war,” but it ...

2026-01-12T23:05:19Z

(10/12) It might not be a full-blown “civil war,” but it could be a big and open-ended mission for U.S. personnel if they are deployed in Venezuela.

(9/12) - Combat-hardened Colombian armed groups, like the ELN and ...

2026-01-12T23:05:11Z

In reply to nevent1q…qn9a
_________________________

(9/12)
- Combat-hardened Colombian armed groups, like the ELN and FARC dissidents, who have a strong presence in Venezuela.

All these armed actors are invested in Venezuela’s status quo. Some portion could take up arms, especially if there is a foreign occupier to attack.

(8/12) - Some portion of paramilitary “colectivos,” capable ...

2026-01-12T23:05:01Z

In reply to nevent1q…v7lx
_________________________

(8/12)
- Some portion of paramilitary “colectivos,” capable of urban combat, who total about 100,000.

- Venezuelan criminal groups, like “pranes” (prison gangs) and “megabandas” (large groups like Tren de Aragua).

(7/12) - Some portion of the feared intelligence services, DGCIM ...

2026-01-12T23:04:51Z

(7/12)
- Some portion of the feared intelligence services, DGCIM and SEBIN, which with elite police units total perhaps 30,000.

- Some (probably small) portion of armed citizen militias, who total over 1 million.

(6/12) Venezuela has lots of armed actors that U.S. personnel ...

2026-01-12T23:04:42Z

In reply to nevent1q…05au
_________________________

(6/12)
Venezuela has lots of armed actors that U.S. personnel could find themselves confronting in the event of “boots on the ground.” They include:

- Some portion of the current armed forces, National Guard, and police, which together total well over 300,000.

(5/12) - Violent responses to any attempt to install the ...

2026-01-12T23:04:32Z

In reply to nevent1q…hr49
_________________________

(5/12)
- Violent responses to any attempt to install the opposition, which won 2024 elections but may not have the security forces’ loyalty.

- Attacks on oil infrastructure apparently controlled by the U.S.

(4/12) Scenarios that could lead the administration to insert ...

2026-01-12T23:04:18Z

In reply to nevent1q…d8yr
_________________________

(4/12) Scenarios that could lead the administration to insert U.S. forces into Venezuela include:

-Fragmentation as elements of the Chavista government object to doing the Trump administration’s bidding.

- The Chavista government failing to hold the security situation together.

(3/12) We celebrate the releases of some political prisoners. We ...

2026-01-12T23:03:58Z

In reply to nevent1q…mmek
_________________________

(3/12) We celebrate the releases of some political prisoners. We call for all (nearly 1,000) to be freed. We denounce the Maduro government's gross human rights violations.

But the rest of his regime remains in place: there has not been a democratic transition.

(2/12) Let’s consider the likelihood of a longer U.S. military ...

2026-01-12T23:03:48Z

In reply to nevent1q…uka5
_________________________

(2/12) Let’s consider the likelihood of a longer U.S. military mission in Venezuela, and the risks that might be involved.

From WOLA: The Trump administration has not ruled out having ...

2026-01-12T23:03:36Z

From WOLA:

The Trump administration has not ruled out having military “boots on the ground” in Venezuela.

What would that entail? Shouldn’t Congress have a say? That’s what the War Powers Resolution, up for a Senate vote this week, is all about. 🧵

(1/12)

A true "acting president" could release all the political ...

2026-01-12T15:28:11Z

In reply to nevent1q…lp8h
_________________________

A true "acting president" could release all the political prisoners in Caracas. Only a few dozen have been released. Looks weak.

"How can I make Marco Rubio's job harder?" seems to ...

2026-01-12T13:21:52Z

"How can I make Marco Rubio's job harder?" seems to be a question lots of people ask themselves.

Latin America-Related Events in Washington and Online This Week ...

2026-01-12T01:26:41Z

Latin America-Related Events in Washington and Online This Week

10 events about Latin America this week, that I know about, that can be attended in person in Washington or online anywhere.

https://adamisacson.com/latin-america-related-events-in-washington-and-online-this-week-98/

In the latest WOLA Border Update: The U.S. military operation to ...

2026-01-09T16:08:56Z

In the latest WOLA Border Update:

The U.S. military operation to extract Nicolás Maduro has changed little for Venezuelan migrants. Updates about smuggling and stranded migrants in Mexico. Updates about new border barriers.

https://www.wola.org/2026/01/u-s-mexico-border-update-venezuelan-migration-notes-from-mexico-border-barriers/

Welcome back, Rocío San Miguel. None of this should ever have ...

2026-01-08T23:22:47Z

Welcome back, Rocío San Miguel. None of this should ever have happened to you.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/08/world/americas/san-miguel-venezuela-prisoner-released.html

Lashing out at 10% of your party's Senate delegation is a ...

2026-01-08T19:55:40Z

Lashing out at 10% of your party's Senate delegation is a cool way to ease concerns about the wheels coming off.

Next steps on the Venezuela war powers resolution: ...

2026-01-08T19:17:12Z

In reply to nevent1q…h0yp
_________________________

Next steps on the Venezuela war powers resolution:

This is just the motion to discharge, in one of two houses of ...

2026-01-08T16:53:19Z

This is just the motion to discharge, in one of two houses of Congress—but as an expression of doubt/concern about the Venezuela intervention, it is unexpected and a big deal.

The Rs may be Collins, Hawley, Murkowski, Paul, and Young, but not 100% sure.

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/115854790795328125 Here's a ...

2026-01-07T21:40:07Z

RE: https://elefanti.co/@adam/115854790795328125

Here's a video version of today's podcast episode, con letra en español.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CET-b9ChqT8

quoting
note1rha…c2tp

Do not miss this podcast episode with my WOLA colleagues Laura Dib and Carolina Jiménez. On the #Venezuela situation of course. We’ll keep them coming.

https://www.wola.org/multimedia/a-shocking-u-s-attack-and-a-transition-without-a-transition-in-venezuela/

Here are excerpts from DHS's 2023 guidelines for the use of ...

2026-01-07T18:18:34Z

Here are excerpts from DHS's 2023 guidelines for the use of deadly force. What we're seeing and hearing from Minneapolis today suggests that these standards have been thrown out the window and stomped on.

See https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/2023-02/23_0206_s1_use-of-force-policy-update.pdf

Do not miss this podcast episode with my WOLA colleagues Laura ...

2026-01-07T16:36:54Z

Do not miss this podcast episode with my WOLA colleagues Laura Dib and Carolina Jiménez. On the #Venezuela situation of course. We’ll keep them coming.

https://www.wola.org/multimedia/a-shocking-u-s-attack-and-a-transition-without-a-transition-in-venezuela/

Is this "strategic clarity?" I don't remember stuff ...

2026-01-04T20:06:31Z

Is this "strategic clarity?" I don't remember stuff like this in Clausewitz.

yeah it went away for a few minutes mid-day, still no idea why

2026-01-04T19:43:24Z

In reply to nevent1q…m99n
_________________________

yeah it went away for a few minutes mid-day, still no idea why

I'm not WOLA's Venezuela expert, but I sat down overnight ...

2026-01-04T16:54:50Z

I'm not WOLA's Venezuela expert, but I sat down overnight and thought through who might be able to generate violence in the country now that the US is "running" it.

The list includes elements of the armed forces and intelligence services, colectivos and militias, and Colombian and Venezuelan armed and criminal groups.

Has the Trump administration thought this through?

https://adamisacson.com/possible-violent-actors-in-post-maduro-venezuela/

Search this transcript of today's White House press ...

2026-01-04T01:05:53Z

Search this transcript of today's White House press conference on Venezuela. Try to find any variant of the word "democracy."

https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-press-conference-venezuela-maduro-january-3-2026/

Last 90 days' Google searches for "Pottery Barn ...

2026-01-03T23:03:32Z

Last 90 days' Google searches for "Pottery Barn Rule."

("You break it, you bought it" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/You_break_it,_you_buy_it)

From WOLA: "Venezuelans deserve a peaceful transition to ...

2026-01-03T17:36:02Z

From WOLA: "Venezuelans deserve a peaceful transition to democracy and respect for their fundamental rights. Nonetheless, unilateral U.S. military action, in violation of standards that have guided the international order for nearly a century, is reckless and dangerous."

https://www.wola.org/2026/01/military-action-venezuela-united-states-maduro-trump/

The 1989 occupation of Panama involved 27,000 U.S. military ...

2026-01-03T17:29:45Z

In reply to nevent1q…e06z
_________________________

The 1989 occupation of Panama involved 27,000 U.S. military personnel. Venezuela has 12 times the land area of Panama, 6.5 times the population, and a much larger array of armed and criminal groups.

There are just 15,000 soldiers, sailors, marines, and airmen ...

2026-01-03T17:29:27Z

There are just 15,000 soldiers, sailors, marines, and airmen currently deployed around Venezuela.

Huge military commitment incoming. "We're going to run ...

2026-01-03T17:01:11Z

Huge military commitment incoming.

"We're going to run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition."

Gonna need a *lot* more than 15,000 troops for that.

Here's a dangerous effort to carve out a loophole in ...

2026-01-03T11:03:34Z

Here's a dangerous effort to carve out a loophole in presidential war powers big enough to drive a tank through.

If such an authority existed, the president could invade anywhere, anytime, without involving Congress—just by claiming, without proof, that an attack is "imminent."

If accurate, this raises the question "who is governing ...

2026-01-03T09:50:31Z

In reply to nevent1q…wejr
_________________________

If accurate, this raises the question "who is governing Venezuela right now, and tomorrow?" (The answer isn't "Delta Force" or "SEAL Team 6," that's not what they do.) While nearly every state has a presidential line of succession, that may not indicate where power actually lies in coming days.

Meanwhile: now we don't know how many people were killed in ...

2026-01-03T09:41:18Z

In reply to nevent1q…drpa
_________________________

Meanwhile: now we don't know how many people were killed in the 12/30 boat strike - https://www.news.uscg.mil/Press-Releases/Article/4370416/coast-guard-suspends-search-for-individuals-in-the-pacific-ocean/

Let's wait for further confirmation on this, but ...

2026-01-03T09:30:57Z

Let's wait for further confirmation on this, but

Congress was not only not consulted: even the committees that ...

2026-01-03T09:30:42Z

In reply to nevent1q…v35h
_________________________

Congress was not only not consulted: even the committees that oversee the Defense Department were kept in the dark, CNN reports. cnn.it/4aHZou2

The War Powers Resolution of 1973 clearly states that the ...

2026-01-03T09:30:15Z

The War Powers Resolution of 1973 clearly states that the President may not send troops into hostilities or imminent hostilities without:

- a declaration of war
- specific congressional authorization
- an attack on the United States

And that the President must consult with Congress first.

Venezuela government statement mentions attacks in Caracas ...

2026-01-03T08:59:26Z

Venezuela government statement mentions attacks in Caracas capital district and neighboring states of La Guaira, Miranda, and Aragua.

https://x.com/petrogustavo/status/2007358443556876416

US attacks have begun. CNN and NY Times report explosions at La ...

2026-01-03T08:35:07Z

US attacks have begun. CNN and NY Times report explosions at La Carlota airbase and Fuerte Tiuna base in Caracas. (Fuerte Tiuna includes Venezuela's Defense Ministry HQ.)

Also, central coastal towns La Guaira (near Caracas) and Higuerote, and perhaps Aragua state.

https://cnn.it/4aHZou2 - https://nyti.ms/3Yn4kgn

Also, the Twitter account that posted this is the only clue ...

2026-01-02T01:37:58Z

In reply to nevent1q…c8nt
_________________________

Also, the Twitter account that posted this is the only clue we've even had about _which ocean_ the attack took place in. (The Pacific.)

It should really bother all of us that the United States ...

2026-01-02T01:37:46Z

It should really bother all of us that the United States government left an unknown number of people floating in an ocean more than 2 days ago, and this seems to be the only information available about the search.

https://x.com/Southcom/status/2006474817076330557

I'm sorry, but they did another one today. That's 10 ...

2026-01-01T02:34:46Z

I'm sorry, but they did another one today. That's 10 people killed in the past 3 days, plus whatever survivors of yesterday's attack who don't get rescued.

Just an orgy of slaughter to end the year. 32 deaths in December.

This boat strike, in an unspecified ocean, had an unknown number ...

2025-12-31T22:43:29Z

This boat strike, in an unspecified ocean, had an unknown number of survivors. We are closely following what happens next.

This makes 31 attacks, and at least 110 killed.

After the September 2 attack when the U.S. military killed shipwrecked survivors, “commanders prioritized rescuing strike survivors, according to three people with knowledge of the discussions,” the Washington Post reported (https://wapo.st/4jlXIZd). “It is unclear who directed the change, when or why.”

In La Guajira, the 2nd-poorest of Colombia's 32 departments, ...

2025-12-30T23:12:30Z

In La Guajira, the 2nd-poorest of Colombia's 32 departments, fishermen aren't venturing far from shore for fear of being murdered by the United States. One has "occasionally seen drones flying above his boat."

From the NY Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/29/world/americas/trump-boat-strikes-gulf-of-venezuela-wreckage.html

Ali G meets LL Cool J meets Col Lockjaw ...

2025-12-30T22:12:28Z

Ali G meets LL Cool J meets Col Lockjaw

That vote was Roll Call 346: ...

2025-12-30T02:10:31Z

In reply to nevent1q…pdcw
_________________________

That vote was Roll Call 346: https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2025346

That's the first known U.S. "land strike" in ...

2025-12-30T02:10:17Z

That's the first known U.S. "land strike" in Venezuela.

Another big shout-out to the 212 Republicans and 1 Democrat in the House who voted against stopping Trump from attacking Venezuela without congressional authorization.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/29/politics/cia-drone-strike-venezuela

That's 30 boat attacks now, with a total of 107 victims. Like ...

2025-12-30T02:05:58Z

That's 30 boat attacks now, with a total of 107 victims.

Like a dark mystery novel with a serial killer who delights in his murders by posting videos after each one.

“What happened here for more than two months is unlike anything ...

2025-12-29T15:57:14Z

“What happened here for more than two months is unlike anything in recent American history: the federal government sending agents dressed for war into neighborhoods of the country’s third-largest city to arrest mostly people who look Latino and to ask questions later.”

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/12/28/chicago-immigration-operation-midway-blitz-2/

Before February 20, there were 4 Latin American entries on the US ...

2025-12-29T13:59:37Z

Before February 20, there were 4 Latin American entries on the US list of foreign terrorist organizations. Now, there are 19.

https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations

Possibly! I laid out some hypotheses back in November, and ...

2025-12-28T20:11:00Z

In reply to nevent1q…swm7
_________________________

Possibly! I laid out some hypotheses back in November, and that's one of them (the final bullet point).

See monthly fentanyl seizures data here: ...

2025-12-28T20:04:08Z

In reply to nevent1q…anhj
_________________________

See monthly fentanyl seizures data here: https://borderoversight.org/2025/11/06/monthly-border-fentanyl-seizures/

ICE cited our Border Update in an ad that apparently aired during ...

2025-12-28T20:03:50Z

ICE cited our Border Update in an ad that apparently aired during some of today's football games.

More context: fentanyl seizures started declining *in mid-2023, in the middle of the Biden administration*, at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Give me enough eggnog, and you’ll hear what I _really_ think ...

2025-12-24T23:51:55Z

Give me enough eggnog, and you’ll hear what I _really_ think about Violet. I have opinions.

Also: Patty and Frieda.

"Southcom tweeting about tracking a civilian aboard a small ...

2025-12-24T18:44:51Z

"Southcom tweeting about tracking a civilian aboard a small craft" sure hits different this year.

Took a sunset drive past the Trump-Washington Monument and the ...

2025-12-22T22:16:13Z

Took a sunset drive past the Trump-Washington Monument and the Trump-Lincoln, Trump-Jefferson, and Trump-World War II Memorials

Here's a copy of the 60 Minutes promo that has been scrubbed ...

2025-12-22T04:42:06Z

Here's a copy of the 60 Minutes promo that has been scrubbed from YouTube and elsewhere.

Badly misinformed "journalist"... many—perhaps ...

2025-12-22T04:36:30Z

Badly misinformed "journalist"... many—perhaps most—of the Venezuelan men were not here illegally, they had humanitarian parole, TPS, and/or pending asylum applications.

(See https://www.propublica.org/article/venezuelan-deportees-trump-immigration-asylum-el-salvador)

CBP has updated its migration data at the U.S.-Mexico border ...

2025-12-19T17:08:17Z

Sorry, that should read "December (1-18)" -- the average ...

2025-12-19T14:49:33Z

In reply to nevent1q…krvv
_________________________

Sorry, that should read "December (1-18)" -- the average is still 1.2 per day.

Two more bombings yesterday. These numbers remain high: this ...

2025-12-19T14:35:55Z

Two more bombings yesterday.

These numbers remain high: this illegal spree of high-seas murder may not even be deterring small-craft drug trafficking.

People murdered per day, monthly average:

- September 0.6
- October 1.5
- November 0.7
- December (1-17) 1.2

https://www.wola.org/2025/11/us-military-strikes-trump-drugs-caribbean/

If a Latin American military unit had killed 99 civilians in 26 ...

2025-12-18T02:14:10Z

In reply to nevent1q…gdvr
_________________________

If a Latin American military unit had killed 99 civilians in 26 attacks in 3 1/2 months, that unit would be ineligible for U.S. aid under the Leahy Law. There'd be a complete cutoff. That unit would be untouchable.

Another boat strike today. Let's dedicate this one to the 214 ...

2025-12-18T02:13:55Z

Another boat strike today. Let's dedicate this one to the 214 Republicans and 2 Democrats who voted against stopping these illegal murders. (https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2025/roll345.xml)

The death toll from 26 attacks now stands at 99.