2023-09-20T12:58:31Z https://njump.me Houston https://njump.me/npub1z9rvpkhlkfw2q6384rexysffvdtszqrst2fcrnwngsgwra4vtn8s9ljj33 https://image.nostr.build/7c8de748eaadd025d28c81bcc8e89cadd796a8742a8a5e90e8c70168918df3c6.jpg https://image.nostr.build/7c8de748eaadd025d28c81bcc8e89cadd796a8742a8a5e90e8c70168918df3c6.jpg https://njump.me/nevent1qqs0687yvcpcy2vwmswtz3evy8mexwge47t5050p459kgmtx5x3emxczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv78varmx While others panic in market chaos you should be mapping entries.<br/><br/>The crowd sells bottoms and buys tops—predictable as gravity.<br/><br/>Volatility isn&#39;t risk—it&#39;s the transfer of assets from the emotional to the prepared. 2025-09-26T17:43:36Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsxm0yqvxwlqyp868kjf48umwuwft5yjak0ue97kt28rq7jcy6x97qzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7ddwe6u Most market trends are lagging indicators, not predictors.<br/><br/>By the time most notice a pattern, the advantage is gone.<br/><br/>I started tracking inflection points before consensus forms.<br/><br/>Look for structural shifts in data that others dismiss as noise—that&#39;s where the asymmetric returns hide.<br/><br/>While others chase yesterday&#39;s momentum, quietly build positions at tomorrow&#39;s fault lines. 2025-08-30T21:16:19Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsgptdsqln323k0mn9azggkkwmu5a406czx4vjvgxmn7csejgkkftczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7za9jd7 Edge comes from introspection, not consensus.<br/><br/>While everyone&#39;s networking and polling opinions, you&#39;re thinking alone.<br/><br/>That&#39;s where asymmetry lives. 2025-06-30T21:40:52Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsggf0gje63pe0s9ke6aur4krhmhzu6mqe32dhkmt7pv7c2d5zc3yszyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7pzrx70 Early days are for maximizing variance, not minimizing it.<br/><br/>Everyone optimizes for routine when they should optimize for upside.<br/><br/>The safe path teaches you to be comfortable and employable. 2025-06-27T20:30:55Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsgk53t7wwlzp8hxptx2cr02tvw9ujrc4degag4460smn7jurdv5fczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7s0mazd Your best moves happen when no one&#39;s watching.<br/><br/>Real edge comes from stepping away from the noise, not diving deeper into it.<br/><br/>While everyone&#39;s polling the group chat, you&#39;re alone with the actual problem.<br/><br/>That&#39;s where differentiation lives. 2025-06-26T15:01:46Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqswm3l95j0qqn6sy4kpqm3694gt0l4ykm77kxdaydlk4tsrep264mgzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7u0sqr0 When your process fails, don&#39;t patch it.<br/><br/>Study why it collapsed.<br/><br/>Then rebuild from the lesson, not the wreckage.<br/><br/>That&#39;s the difference between incremental tweaks and structural advantage. 2025-06-26T01:41:55Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsxf9vrf84x06sva4zpe06j0th0v9alm3eufj9mmmew7xjapjanxaqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7ah4x7k In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqswejh2klk2sg8d72g2u0ndefagfg2lvn4v40r98v90zck8s2z4rscpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgtrt73j'>nevent1q…t73j</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>The shitcoin season has already started. This cycle’s shitcoins are the Bitcoin treasury companies. 2025-06-25T02:02:56Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs89vmgy6ul00kg5h00wq7v3csxejlv3kt9j5l8mlu0g9cs4cxc4jszyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7nhdwsu Rote practices are other people&#39;s solutions to other people&#39;s problems.<br/><br/>Your process is built from your constraints, your data, your failures.<br/><br/>Every time you copy a framework, you inherit their blind spots and skip your own learning.<br/><br/>The operators who win build systems that fit their specific game.<br/><br/>Not because they&#39;re contrarian, but because generic solutions produce generic results.<br/><br/>Your edge comes from solving your exact problem in your exact way. 2025-06-25T01:23:46Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsdkyquzg50ev7p45q560lfe3jalq3de70uptssqt4jvhv69klaltszyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7hsxsev Early days force you to think in failure modes, not comfort zones.<br/><br/>Routine kills that edge. 2025-06-24T15:02:23Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsxsf3pw34mrj60rwwlfr8x0y4dk42dueexaqv9qq9hmmxwawnxxjczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7ym0qwt In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsfsu5vpyer29grvsyennrjpee8swgcpluvl5xkkxtw2hqghezcnwspzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgcrfqqy'>nevent1q…fqqy</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Hope you’re enjoying the Summer so far. 😄 2025-06-24T01:48:46Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqszan6nmmrkaa2nsmy6rkdqsg0e7hye3qhykfy2lg2vls92ecp4u9czyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv720xndp The loudest voices online are usually the least profitable offline.<br/><br/>If they&#39;re loud they&#39;re selling you something.<br/><br/>Real operators don&#39;t announce, they execute quietly and let results speak. 2025-06-23T22:10:32Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsg3atakf70ehwymcr66dmscdgu5vkd64n2gx4gzys4ac9cq0cqyeqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7hjs0u2 I would stop taking advice from people whose systems I wouldn&#39;t steal. 2025-06-23T15:55:24Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsx4znl8wpd6nd86vtc2kcr6vr2cwumwgvachkgxlya0at4q56x3eszyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7x49hr6 The only opinions I trust are tested by price and process.<br/><br/>Everything else is just expensive noise. 2025-06-23T00:27:42Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs8kmnwx0r0wndwre4whxenqt5vu2st2k4h82nlygendcpltwywsfczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv77y4cr0 Best practices are other people&#39;s solutions to other people&#39;s problems.<br/><br/>They codify what worked once, somewhere else, under different constraints.<br/><br/>Independent process means building your own map from your actual data, advantages, and constraints.<br/><br/>You iterate on your process, not someone else&#39;s playbook.<br/><br/>The market rewards originality of execution, not compliance with consensus.<br/><br/>While competitors copy yesterday&#39;s winning moves, you&#39;re building tomorrow&#39;s advantage.<br/><br/>Best practices make you predictable.<br/><br/>Independent process makes you unreachable. 2025-06-22T21:28:16Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsyz4zg0vcx27kx8ggfwhdzj4rmxxkym3zyhafsatxg2m7trguyyeczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7kqpnhu Best practices are averages designed for masses.<br/><br/>Your process is a weapon built for your constraints.<br/><br/>Every cycle I watch operators copy frameworks that worked for different problems, different markets, different people.<br/><br/>Meanwhile the ones who built their own system from first principles are quietly eating everyone&#39;s lunch.<br/><br/>The meta-game isn&#39;t learning best practices.<br/><br/>It&#39;s building the process that generates your own. 2025-06-22T16:26:28Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsx9kt2fkvzv3umrclp9wmpswldfmfggh9uul4kky66mtejypzxurgzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7z5amy5 🚨 New Substack post just dropped! 🚨<br/>With election day around the corner, I&#39;m breaking down key market charts, potential volatility, and trading opportunities you don’t want to miss. 📊📈<br/><br/><a href="https://open.substack.com/pub/houstonwehaveaprob/p/trading-the-us-elections?r=2tki10&amp;utm_campaign=post&amp;utm_medium=web&amp;showWelcomeOnShare=true">https://open.substack.com/pub/houstonwehaveaprob/p/trading-the-us-elections?r=2tki10&amp;utm_campaign=post&amp;utm_medium=web&amp;showWelcomeOnShare=true</a> 2024-11-04T22:04:21Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqszr38lud43m6asag0yssfylltw622r6p43a7dsmnzpgvda9z5q90gzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7h933u4 Another week has passed, and the Bitcoin/ crypto markets continue to trade within a tight range, lacking a significant catalyst to break out. <br/><br/>Let&#39;s dive into the current dynamics and some of the failed narratives.<br/><br/> <img src="https://m.primal.net/IEzl.png"> <br/><br/><a href="https://houstonwehaveaprob.substack.com/p/market-musings-quiet-and-rangebound?r=2tki10">https://houstonwehaveaprob.substack.com/p/market-musings-quiet-and-rangebound?r=2tki10</a> 2024-05-09T18:38:58Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs27mkt98h365x6f7uhfr7qa6c36pf9ph4eehx4xfpp6h5e50x7evszyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7uuh78y Here&#39;s my take on people trying to put real estate on the blockchain. 🤣<br/><br/><a href="https://open.substack.com/pub/houstonwehaveaprob/p/the-problem-with-the-real-world?r=2tki10&amp;utm_campaign=post&amp;utm_medium=web&amp;showWelcomeOnShare=true">https://open.substack.com/pub/houstonwehaveaprob/p/the-problem-with-the-real-world?r=2tki10&amp;utm_campaign=post&amp;utm_medium=web&amp;showWelcomeOnShare=true</a> 2024-04-29T19:12:22Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsyn7vvj2f2xht4hjlh0kzvenvcykxuhrfexy9fcedyah4nrgswl3qzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7rdp032 In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsqr5nr2ld7w85ynntlz2d6as82tl2sgh6a8tzkre8lpp9qz0hvn6sguw0sc'>nevent1q…w0sc</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Bravo ser. 😂 2024-04-26T18:31:08Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsdljy0c4qeezdds8v7j4ypr489k20kgkzvm9fu7r7enlj9mdyz9cczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7j6fqe9 In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsfjwtmzysupp4pkutgfy2q4l7x4hzgyaq26cu7eyzatzane6q2l0gdgmqke'>nevent1q…mqke</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Aqua and Fedi Bravo. 👍🏻 2024-04-23T23:21:03Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsgsjk46garwwtdreuxe629qrf4ywl934e4cs3fvrkq6c0g9aq76rgzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7v7cfxt gm - We made it past the Halving without a sell-off! <br/><br/>I&#39;ve dusted off my price action charts and crayons for $BTCUSD. - let&#39;s see where we go from here. 🖍️ <br/><br/>Market Musings - Charting the Course: Bitcoin and Ethereum Analysis Post-Halving<br/> <img src="https://m.primal.net/HyeK.png"> 2024-04-22T12:24:42Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqstagvzu4rgxq25a4qtc0mglrhmd3dgkzakt99edhqej7l4m6r7m5qzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7gs406d 📢 Curious about the &#34;Sell in May&#34; effect and #Bitcoin? 🤔<br/><br/>There are a lot of bad takes so I&#39;ve crunched the numbers and here are the key takeaways from my analysis:<br/><br/>1️⃣ Ever since the COVID-19 pandemic, the &#34;Sell in May&#34; effect has emerged as a winning strategy 4 consecutive years in a row. 📈💪<br/><br/>2️⃣ Interestingly, during years with a Bitcoin Halving, the &#34;Sell in May&#34; effect doesn&#39;t seem to have the same impact. . 🪙📊<br/><br/>3️⃣ Surprisingly, there&#39;s no clear and consistent pattern indicating that the &#34;Sell in May&#34; effect is more pronounced during bear market cycles for Bitcoin. It&#39;s not a foolproof strategy in every market condition. 🐻📉<br/><br/>For a deep dive into these findings and even access to the code for running the analysis yourself, check out the article here:<br/><br/><a href="https://open.substack.com/pub/houstonwehaveaprob/p/bitcoins-sell-in-may-playbook-is?r=2tki10&amp;utm_campaign=post&amp;utm_medium=web&amp;showWelcomeOnShare=true">https://open.substack.com/pub/houstonwehaveaprob/p/bitcoins-sell-in-may-playbook-is?r=2tki10&amp;utm_campaign=post&amp;utm_medium=web&amp;showWelcomeOnShare=true</a><br/><br/> 2024-04-18T18:50:42Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsp226vayjw0s6rym8natn9gglmzsphuzqy27q8yr0r85ez64jeaxczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv73jpa5l In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsx79slhu5evpup9q89yaskqj3rv9u74n70ps4y86n9tzsg9cju33qpr4mhxue69uhkummnw3ez6ur4vgh8wetvd3hhyer9wghxuet59ckght'>nevent1q…kght</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>I think it may be as well. 👍 2024-04-18T18:47:50Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsta25haqwg6nj4he0avmynxkjr26zafdzwveuy0gzhwj3ksmg7ztgzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv74yv4ja Will the Bitcoin halving be a sell-the-news event? 🟢🔴<br/><br/>Right now on Manifold it&#39;s pretty evenly split.<br/><br/>Comment on your opinion! 🙏<br/><br/><a href="https://manifold.markets/HoustonxMTL/will-bitcoin-btcusd-close-green-or?r=SG91c3RvbnhNVEw">https://manifold.markets/HoustonxMTL/will-bitcoin-btcusd-close-green-or?r=SG91c3RvbnhNVEw</a><br/><br/>$BTCUSD 2024-04-18T13:21:28Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs9qmg7nwa5vufk5l7cx4k5pfyzve2e8ptql860gqg45nvsug0q4sszyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7p755v3 New post on the substack - Will the Bitcoin Halving be a sell-the-news event?<br/><br/><a href="https://open.substack.com/pub/houstonwehaveaprob/p/all-eyes-on-the-bitcoin-halving?r=2tki10&amp;utm_campaign=post&amp;utm_medium=web&amp;showWelcomeOnShare=true">https://open.substack.com/pub/houstonwehaveaprob/p/all-eyes-on-the-bitcoin-halving?r=2tki10&amp;utm_campaign=post&amp;utm_medium=web&amp;showWelcomeOnShare=true</a><br/><br/> <img src="https://image.nostr.build/134d4505bf2a19c813e74c75c274209f3e2a0bc1034aa80352399a7b3ad21030.jpg"> 2024-04-15T16:04:25Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsd4afcrjz4rhmvn2guvex2qngtnm802whlqv7zzmezujduz0llgwgzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7g7k987 Epic Spring snowstorm. 🌨️<br/>#montreal<br/> <img src="https://m.primal.net/HrRN.jpg"> 2024-04-04T21:25:40Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsp99eszut89q99458l90v9ry4gh04h29n7pzqecg8y2lt6kvyke0szyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7dly2v4 Finally, the monthly inside bar and up continues to play out so while we may see some profit-taking in the short term the best course of action remains to look at dips as buying opportunities for trend continuation.<br/><br/> <img src="https://m.primal.net/HOWj.png"> <br/><br/>#bitcoin 2023-10-24T15:48:54Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs8vj9l4ll54r5pmrhve5r94fu2ws3e3mle0rvy35l3p269v4xum5qzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv73w4vhl On the upside, we have the 38547 area which has some structure that is likely to be tested if we can break upwards.<br/><br/> <img src="https://m.primal.net/HOWh.png"> 2023-10-24T15:48:27Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsqtxcnw3jfgwmh49my6hn4n06s64tnz3n2eqhk7fwnxxnxzzccreqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7hndkws So this is how I would draw the current BF on #BTC with some poor market structure around the 30000 area which is a reasonable area for a re-test.<br/><br/> <img src="https://m.primal.net/HOWg.png"> 2023-10-24T15:48:02Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsdev36kv6ad87q0x70msczatnz9tz0l633js3w3037nwwtfz3qykszyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7fakpfp Interestingly, the last time we had a momo-up on $BTC on the 3M chart was in Q4 2015, making that period the most analogous to our current cycle.<br/><br/> <img src="https://m.primal.net/HOWf.png"> 2023-10-24T15:47:38Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsd2ks9nnq7uxne97ly93r6vhg3d9qkjc4cclscrshw8hcqet6p3dqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv73gk983 #Bitcoin chart update.<br/><br/>$BTC goes momo-up on the quarterly.<br/><br/>This is not an ideal scenario as it leaves behind some weak market structure that tends to get retested.<br/><br/>Anyone who chased the last couple of sessions will likely find themselves shortly underwater.<br/><br/> <img src="https://m.primal.net/HOWe.png"> <br/> 2023-10-24T15:47:11Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsryzlwlnj9z8xleu6hxlg7j0tetqssk2u94atakfnahl3w7juaakqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv78uvv39 Weekly seasonal $BTC data if you subscribe to such things. <br/>#bitcoin<br/><br/> <img src="https://m.primal.net/HOWV.png"> 2023-10-24T14:54:16Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsrkxh8hp0kwxn2g3s73vj0jr0dmneag5a80acmn630l8q202uet5gzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7dr92ra How it started, how it&#39;s going YTD.<br/><br/>The $BTC data is about one day delayed but the seasonality appears to be playing out.<br/><br/>#Bitcoin<br/> <img src="https://m.primal.net/HOWM.png"> 2023-10-24T14:45:13Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsyf3h20w05xpz2ljqse63vycywwg6jvr0n7d48ha7z07ets6lzapszyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7mpere6 Watch $BTC last quarter&#39;s pivots carefully.<br/><br/>Will #Bitcoin break last quarter&#39;s high and go momo up?<br/><br/>Or do we remain inside quarter and setup for something in Q1 2024?<br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/w/wtjXDjR0.png"> <br/><br/>#trading 2023-10-23T15:24:20Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsgqxl75mq0q4s69gwz9d73ta2nhzz7fayxx82zrgmql5fjvsu6s3qzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7zx99yg VIX marked the upper BF trendline and sellers stepped in. <br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/b/bkvpIYyT.png"> <br/><br/>Times like this are notable. <br/>The bears got everything they could ask for but couldn&#39;t hold on to the gains.<br/><br/>Now the US 10-year yields are pulling back and $EURUSD is firming up.<br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/v/vivygTTl.png"> <br/><br/>It looks likely that we will get a bounce in equities.<br/><br/>So with the risk-on back in equities, will flows continue to pile into crypto as it has been negatively correlated with the SPY/QQQ lately? <br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/i/IvQrW2EA.png"> <br/><br/>Or do we get the coveted rally in both equities and crypto to close out Uptober?<br/><br/> 2023-10-23T15:07:10Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsweewvqgag20zhcw3hqmv54yul3h8f0haae0sge4u5dqy8xnvkehgzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7uj9wc6 Keep an eye on the Yen which is set to break down. <br/><br/>USDJPY weekly outside-inside and up.<br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/o/OjPXXNIK.png"> <br/><br/>What will be the macro catalyst to ignite the move?🔥<br/><br/><a href="https://iris.to/note1wytf8fe9uqvw0v6lqt8pxd0qas754rpeg40zmdsquaxswxw0hrcqaqkw7m">https://iris.to/note1wytf8fe9uqvw0v6lqt8pxd0qas754rpeg40zmdsquaxswxw0hrcqaqkw7m</a><br/><br/> 2023-10-23T13:50:49Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs0xh9dxfzyhv8xu5c4yn75mpueyezeprmdmdjajts42lcug5028zszyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7mhazf4 The inverse Cramer indicator is undefeated. 🤣<br/><br/><a href="https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1711841625431789762?s=20">https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1711841625431789762?s=20</a> 2023-10-16T13:40:21Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs262fkjnh7zzc4s2vuh7n0x6gyw76elrmuk5vcvlvrarrldqjtkmqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7fq7xne $BTC has reclaimed the 27508 pivot point which brings the monthly inside and up break back into play. <br/><br/>We still have some weak market structure around the 29000 area that I&#39;m watching to fill.<br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/r/Rl9A71Fd.png"> 2023-10-16T13:24:35Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsv2lf3k0v9t7wxps0vapltzeashvzjcna9t57qy0g3zef3n75lrkczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7anlua9 gm <br/><br/>$BTC seasonality continues to play out as noted previously, so I hope you loaded the boat on this dip.<br/><br/>Remember, when you see the crowd all leaning on one side of the boat, you need to lean the other way.<br/><br/> <img src="https://i.imgur.com/shml9Dw.png"> <br/><br/>#trading #bitcoin 2023-10-16T13:24:07Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsgyqg4rxqhppxqzuc3n2enxmk65v7jj3prpgzjxfpcnd2dun540rszyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv70trtyl As noted, we retested the 27176 pivot on $BTC. ✅<br/><br/>Breadth in the crypto market is extended to the downside. ✅<br/><br/>The risk/reward now favors being long and I will start accumulating around these levels. 📉📈<br/><br/><a href="https://iris.to/note1kn6n8kr5v5u65ulj9c5zt9qkx236xs4hh7ea8ymhe7dsq87mh8hspevcvc">https://iris.to/note1kn6n8kr5v5u65ulj9c5zt9qkx236xs4hh7ea8ymhe7dsq87mh8hspevcvc</a><br/><br/>Catching the exact bottom is not always easy so a good tactic is to leg into the trade and add on potential weakness and/or confirmation of the reversal.<br/><br/>A break back above 27508 puts the monthly breakout back in play.<br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/a/ABouxUvr.png"> <br/><br/>#Bitcoin #trading 2023-10-11T12:55:35Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsyvezas0fz2syga3qe46mdl3cylhhawez48axv5p2rr9yn4m8auqszyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7hhycrc In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqswlac2a72e35fnr96rphs746yq2r6pk8wvu0l42vy8ujq8vctgqgg6wrzal'>nevent1q…rzal</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Nice episode Stephan. 👍<br/><br/>One part that wasn&#39;t 100% clear to me is around the counterparty risk associated with the premiums collected from the market maker - Calypso?<br/><br/>When I sell a covered call option on Atomic Finance, where does the premium that the buyer pays me go? Is it locked in the DLC along with the collateral, or is it held somewhere else?<br/><br/> 2023-10-09T17:20:13Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs8h5yptus9n5h6lzt6nlc954dwxunsfej3mny5z8rynjy5tqdq2fczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv78lmfpf PSA - <br/><br/>Markets don&#39;t bottom on Fridays. 📉 2023-10-06T12:59:47Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsv62kfjt09gmuylqpwhpehkdtnr0wynhqf23ehl97xzd2hmssxgrczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7q8e7h3 NFP #&#39;s came in way too hot. 🔥<br/>It will be difficult for the Fed to justify a slowdown in rate hikes if it continues its &#34;data-dependent&#34; stance.<br/><br/>Look at the reaction on the US 10 year yields.<br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/b/bz2GNoSA.png"> 2023-10-06T12:58:08Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs2z9pttkfaae5xqqytuc6z7mc6h5ganu8ntm8ytrju62pvy6vefvqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7qduk7f Thanks for playing along. <br/><br/>$SPY $VIX<br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/4/4ExjazEu.png"> 2023-10-03T18:11:00Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsym4sws3guveskcayu50wxazrx8lpjuekq2sk5cuaytdeyx86p8jqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7fgj8qv So you thought it was going to be up-only Uptober? Think again. <br/><br/>Looking back at the average weekly returns for $BTC since 2010, week 40 has traditionally been a weak week. <br/><br/>So if you subscribe to seasonality, this week should mark the local bottom.<br/><br/>If you&#39;re a more active trader, you can start looking for bottoming formations that, if they work, will provide good asymmetric upside. <br/><br/> <img src="https://m.primal.net/HMdQ.png"> <br/><br/>#trading #Bitcoin 2023-10-03T14:58:15Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsftn0kx89tzhm56wu2skenewa363e3aecpxevx3ad2735gkvhe4fszyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv73lhdkv In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqswty0wg8zast5ealn2y33slys9dxefp6x9mc92hkd8gkkdm4x806gw9qlsv'>nevent1q…qlsv</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>🤣 2023-10-02T14:19:43Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqswvz7uhsayhn6mt7zhtfueacfac8n5crhx0d86ss9vffyjvpu9j7qzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv720seuu By now, most of you have probably seen a chart similar to this one, which shows that September is historically a seasonally weak month for $BTC.<br/><br/> <img src="https://image.nostr.build/ee37d6fc7c7503fee5417d323017198540ca815e21a102ec12796c86f219e044.jpg"> <br/><br/>An interesting follow-up question is what does history have to say about months where September was actually positive? <br/>Was the following month and the rest of the year positive?<br/> <br/>Interestingly, since 2010, there have been 4 occasions where Sept. had positive returns.<br/>After that, 3/4 had positive returns in October. <br/>All 4/4 had positive returns in November and 3/4 had positive returns in December.<br/><br/>So on net, seasonally, it hasn&#39;t paid to be short #Bitcoin in Q4. <br/><br/> <img src="https://image.nostr.build/99443a09b7dba87aca009a93b728038d490f330fd74dc92c3d0d2bb68ccef3d1.png"> <br/> 2023-10-02T13:57:18Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsfq67pg47fz8cygth7kpg7eanx5pwhprvpvkykgrrwqgdhj0g537qzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7r0vlq4 $BTC has some poor market structure in the 28970-29100 area from the previous selloff that is likely to be retested. <br/><br/>Any shorts still holding will have seen their profits evaporate and will likely throw in the towel at this point. <br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/l/LEQFNvM7.png"> <br/><br/>#BTC #trading 2023-10-02T13:11:05Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs0upkkk4edcxszva9yjkc4eu3sy2dut8cv9m9rtjml8h6c8ut9v8szyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv78gg8wm gm<br/><br/>Here&#39;s today&#39;s PSA.<br/><br/>Markets don&#39;t bottom on Fridays. 2023-09-29T16:26:34Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsfnmmga3m72ht5mx5nqj372usc8sphcmzhzzswprq04g2q5jg5sgczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7tnf4de In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsptyh55c3lxfd443cwvme5gy8rlyh9tg6a8se9vq4nghlte5djncqtypuv8'>nevent1q…puv8</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>Reformed or let&#39;s say evolved stratter. 😁<br/>Price action is one of the tools in the toolbox. 🛠️ 2023-09-27T18:07:03Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsve8f7302radhxpqhrw3c28ck0vvy2ug9fs6jrreexk2ncr075q5gzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7mwllur We&#39;re in the midst of a min peak-to-trough 10%+ correction in equities. 📈📉<br/><br/>$VIX 19.55 is a forgone conclusion. <br/>Watch and see if we get into the 21-22 area.<br/><br/>$SPY left a lot of poor market structure behind on it&#39;s run from 415-459.<br/><br/>$SPY 422 is high probability pivot followed by 420.<br/><br/>#trading <br/><br/> <img src="https://image.nostr.build/e207151009dcc586a8551462d17c486a535d657fbe75f17c0a3ab5954165a56c.jpg"> <br/><br/> <img src="https://image.nostr.build/8ddbf69b423bb5ad4a753873297c175185cc9e0e3bd314f0cb73cb8581105f2f.png"> 2023-09-27T18:01:18Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsq0ztaxlj0zjwkd09jdzfhjrepyc555ls5uedunm9djanvnsfvpxczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7d2z38a This is how I would draw the current BF playing out on $VIX.<br/><br/>There will be time to fade vol - just wait for some vol sellers to be put on stretchers first.<br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/l/Lu3HfnrP.png"> 2023-09-26T15:59:45Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs2kwm8jqkwu9pc9cgjfj3pkwvuyg0mcudevvspskcmlgajcrnu5sqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv75xlty4 In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsv8a3s6rv0rse8vq94y6hlj9j5yayqrtedrsy2t05v68krfl0ynzgm88mfx'>nevent1q…8mfx</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>lnbc10u1pj39c8npp5ue84rfxen2phskfctl2525gn228hcf8zru6z8t9yhfdwlk5dm3hsdq5g9kxy7fqd9h8vmmfvdjscqzzsxqyz5vqsp5fj7tt6egjdaprzrcfrvqpkxk4hwrryw7g87wd8x4qjp7vppe3k3q9qyyssq9yda52qprpw0y382rs4wv65temegr0g3j2psftturz8q9nen86f9rly6z2fl5y5nam4ucyc7jus5lqn9l2sftrpmwsmg3egym2zlvvcpcnu625 2023-09-26T13:47:42Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsfgt3c3duy97qgsr9rhucfgp5tx8wgn9qm4lytx303gtfet25kucczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7n6xzq7 <br/>gm<br/><br/>Here&#39;s today&#39;s PSA. <br/><br/>Risk off continues - $JNK and $HYG have both gone outside-inside month and down. <br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/l/LuJBJlir.png"> <br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/c/ckampl79.png"> <br/><br/>This has been on the radar for some time and is now confirmed. <br/>Act accordingly. <br/><br/><a href="https://primal.net/e/note1ecvx93ajhp6q0jewxaz6pg2c48sx4zxvnfyve0mjjs569pdvqpcq2kumsu">https://primal.net/e/note1ecvx93ajhp6q0jewxaz6pg2c48sx4zxvnfyve0mjjs569pdvqpcq2kumsu</a> 2023-09-26T13:25:24Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs0hwcvcrgcvjf29uyduv7kca0lzld8nxj8nls8ah0nf255d46ck7gzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv79h069k <img src="https://image.nostr.build/42e266edf160175fecf4e60983c853e484e00c4f30d614a7bf752a270e3d542e.png"> 2023-09-26T13:03:50Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsxl6ugh46dutyr25vs55yp2250nnsffx3crxlhv7sfn8vhvw6pflczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7cnlhp8 In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsxm3mr7qefd5q2x0dfmg32t2kkkuxvx7a70xzl993n63mshvm2c0srpmx87'>nevent1q…mx87</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>When it comes to studying price, it&#39;s important to recognize that price oscillates between periods of consolidation and expansion. <br/><br/>As it relates specifically to $VIX, it&#39;s good to understand that there is a huge cottage industry of traders who run a gamut of volatility selling strategies that are akin to picking up pennies in front of a train. <br/>Most of the time these options sellers pick up those proverbial pennies, but there are those periods when volatility does not revert and these traders get run over. <br/><br/>In this situation, when I use the term range expansion, I am describing 2 scenarios.<br/><br/>1 - $VIX is now trading above and through its average monthly range (light blue line).<br/>This does not occur often, but you can see on the chart that when $VIX closes above this monthly range, it tends to lead to further price expansion.<br/><br/>2 - Range expansion also describes a sequence of price action involving broadening formations (shown in red) where price moves from one side of the range to the other. TLDR - The markets are an auction mechanism that seeks liquidity aka stops, which is why we often experience periods of higher highs and lower lows. 2023-09-25T15:36:27Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsvs446adznfqws86cu3y5wvapk67zfeuv3grt0t378tvudeymnyaszyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7saaevp Hold on to your top hats, things are about to get bumpy.<br/><br/>$VIX range expansion underway. <br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/g/gbYALgMV.png"> 2023-09-25T14:22:23Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs8z95n5uj7qx88kd0s9nsnxhswc0223su52h3dkcqwwng8r88m3uqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7y2dxxw Watch out - USDJPY heading for multi-year highs.<br/>Remember that of all the G10 nations, Japan is furthest along the path of monetary experimentation.<br/><br/>Daily - <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/y/YC2XxMmZ.png"> <br/><br/>3 x outside-inside and break to the upside.<br/><br/>The triple outside bar is noteworthy as we can now certainly expect a range extension.<br/><br/>Weekly - <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/f/fvULYpA1.png"> <br/><br/>The weekly chart shows a continuation of the momo up condition. We will see how long this condition will last. <br/><br/>Putting this out there as a possibility - but a re-test of the 200 pivot is a long term possibility and would likely be the result of a very large macro event. <br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/m/m7GTnXm1.png"> 2023-09-25T14:01:40Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqstwyaect5atnhmn2cvesdnrt6at8au24qsezlaujlg26z3gdpp6qszyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv72lg4vu GM<br/><br/>Repeat after me - &#34;Markets don&#39;t bottom on Fridays&#34;. 2023-09-22T13:32:31Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsvuxrzc7etsaq8evhrw3dq59v2ncr23rxf5jxvhaefg2dzskkqquqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv78gp0v9 $JNK $HYG update<br/><br/>You need to be paying attention to $JNK and $HYG to understand how the markets are pricing risk. <br/><br/>They are both closing in on going outside month and down. 🔻<br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/f/FAE9iBqJ.png"> <br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/0/0KgEt16C.png"> <br/><br/>There are still 8 days remaining in the month and quarter. Will we trigger before the end of the month and quarter? Keep watching carefully. 👀<br/><br/> <a href="https://iris.to/note1xtmcxqs0h0psjccnxfak9ecl2pl57p9tya2875qrnjqk7s6c5stsgz4jnc">https://iris.to/note1xtmcxqs0h0psjccnxfak9ecl2pl57p9tya2875qrnjqk7s6c5stsgz4jnc</a> 2023-09-21T15:32:49Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs0fmvxzukhqvjqz5rue4dc63y8tuty2s362l328rfm77cnz3pkqzqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv746axjj $TLT - long bond update.<br/><br/>$TLT broke below last year&#39;s lows.<br/> <img src="https://image.nostr.build/bad642bbda7609b021f78551e988c218522577832cdad8f6489eefa02883f796.png"> <br/><br/>Wild to see $TLT retrace all the way back to 2006 levels. <br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/y/Ym4dEWcB.png"> <br/>______<br/>I posted the following over a month ago: <br/><a href="https://iris.to/note1pn500p47g69779zzd8pg6uk64hn70s2dnlhtzmnwg88dkj9ur27stafx5a">https://iris.to/note1pn500p47g69779zzd8pg6uk64hn70s2dnlhtzmnwg88dkj9ur27stafx5a</a><br/><br/><br/><br/> 2023-09-21T13:44:03Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsrjdrezm72nw57cvuhtzd8my0xskz9c3kytqxlm9udx28ldg2m3xszyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7mt24rg Breakout. <br/><br/>The US 2 year yield is trading at 5.12. <br/><br/>Highest levels since 2006.<br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/y/YwjepHmD.png"> 2023-09-20T18:20:14Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs8dvce2jma8asu9gwfyp3gg5q5dtvxhqprs62zkw309gfmzqkjz3gzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7r9ucme Kaching - thanks for playing. 🎰💸<br/><br/>Taking some profits here on the $ETHBTC trade before FOMC this afternoon. <br/><br/>There&#39;s more downside possible but taking some chips off the table.<br/><br/>#trading #btc #eth<br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/3/3JgvLwcE.png"> 2023-09-20T12:17:32Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqswftwfvtx4qezc4vl069dy7kfygmmgzel36lz6fzyk0en8ygf55lczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7lzgyt2 $ETHBTC update.<br/><br/>The long $BTC, short $ETH trade continues to play out. 💸<br/><br/> <img src="https://image.nostr.build/1992b774fd48980e2b011f83ce9fe3a26b05e27cfea52827d22163197959f906.png"> <br/><br/><a href="https://iris.to/note1gwqn2qc5tkl7v50wmw7ej6v6tlwj9crzw8uhlh95ntjl6prxxp4q4y9v0m">https://iris.to/note1gwqn2qc5tkl7v50wmw7ej6v6tlwj9crzw8uhlh95ntjl6prxxp4q4y9v0m</a><br/><br/> 2023-09-12T14:06:15Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsvx6nhq82tga2mrvg0t87ufaz4mz00vw6hg7urws35mdume9rpmcczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv76mc4v3 Markets always move slower than you want, but faster than you expect. 2023-09-11T15:27:40Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqspc576gxnty69j5uhn04ejtha6qqrdu7me7djkjqkxlm25w5ddvxczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv733rjcu Top of the morning. ☕<br/><br/>1370 here we come. <br/> <br/>Currently short a bunch of shitcoins and waiting to see how the market reacts to the macro news on Wednesday and Thursday as well as the potential supply coming from FTX.<br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/l/ltJQ2z0S.png"> 2023-09-11T14:56:02Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqst9lda58ka70h63fn3rztvxk33mymeygww69fgrhw3a7lzcplhwzgzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7h99r3h Pay attention.<br/><br/>The USDJPY and USDCNH are on the verge of new cycle highs. <br/><br/>Say hello to the USD wrecking ball. 💣<br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/e/EeaZ1Neo.png"> <br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/a/ArsEiA5t.png"> 2023-09-08T15:51:40Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsf7atdukpl6dwydkqwr3zh6mrfhrkgagdxdgg5j88nn8wr9j4j5ggzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7v6vd4v In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsz4ervegjedu9yljpt6pg5c77rtuaslnmxrqxk2l70yqzyslg63qgkeukhm'>nevent1q…ukhm</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>I&#39;m pointing out the next significant pivot. <br/>17.30 marks the outside bar high. <br/><br/>Outside bars are fractal broadening formations .<br/>So that pivot both attracts and repels - if we trade close we will likely trade to and through that pivot. 2023-09-08T13:34:04Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsr9aurqg8mhscfvvfny7mzuu04ql60qj4jw4rl2qpeeqt0gdv2g9czyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7mhtvm4 Not enough people are talking about it. <br/><br/>The high-yield bond ETFs $JNK and $HYG are both trading outside-inside on the monthly chart and consolidating at the precipice. <br/><br/>If we see a break of last month&#39;s outside bar to the downside, watch out. 👀 <br/> <br/>This means that the market is expecting more defaults or lower recoveries from junk bonds, which could be caused by factors such as higher interest rates, a worsening economy, lower earnings, or more volatility, and drive investors into safer risk assets. 📈📉<br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/o/OnV4mqZU.png"> <br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/DmAAjGcW.png"> 2023-09-07T13:35:13Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsvg2faff3vv3gfqjd2sksdmaxd2d3hs338m5hhtclarzu9zqm2f6gzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7jpragz <img src="https://image.nostr.build/322af2429fd3363b15548dc731d9a207ace710659260ecb09416b1f7dbbb23d3.jpg"> 2023-09-07T13:09:14Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsyrdudld6kdz7s47shpvxw69cs9vw3z590njlraupw4mx7g6zy23szyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7m4ac8d Alright $VIX reclaimed the 15.45 level. <br/><br/>Now watch to see if we reclaim the 17.30 pivots. <br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/7/7ajATOJA.png"> <br/> 2023-09-07T13:03:39Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsq88q8h7hzxmgejj5vf3p7rvmcq6c0uthgnav9vjp0yt8p3z4e8pczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7rmym84 A truly fascinating sequence of price action is unfolding.<br/><br/>On the daily chart we are trading within the range defined by the big down bar that was formed on August 17th. <br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/5/5ZHL3tRO.png"> <br/><br/>To the layman&#39;s eye, it looks like we are just chopping around, but we are actually trading at an inflection point that is precipitating a big price move.<br/><br/>One way the chop is expressed in the price action is as a series of widening formations with higher highs and lower lows, which is kryptonite for traders using horizontal levels or previous pivots for stop losses. <br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/k/krCV1Niw.png"> <br/><br/>What usually precedes big moves are choppy periods that chop up the majority of traders who are jockeying for the next move but eventually capitulate before the big move happens. Once the move is finally underway, those left behind are forced to chase the price or fear missing out on the price action they so desperately wanted to be ahead of. <br/><br/>Finally, take a look at the 1628 pivot. Notice how we&#39;ve been chopping around this level? <br/>Zoom out to the 3M chart and you can see that 1628 is the reversal pivot on the quarterly chart - which has become a battleground for buyers and sellers. <br/>When the 1628 pivot gives way, we should see much lower prices. <br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/h/HEckmDRR.png"> <br/><br/>The major timeframes are all trading 🔴 so my expectation is that this period of consolidation will eventually resolve to the downside and we visit the 1370 pivot as I have noted previously on my feed.<br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/f/fYaTrMrc.png"> <br/><br/>$BTC is trading in a very similar structure to $ETH, so I expect both $BTC and $ETH to resolve the consolidation in a similar manner. <br/><br/>#BTC #ETH #trading #plebchain 2023-09-06T18:33:17Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqswfp78szt9yz7lj537zk2652hfywndwk5383laa9t3s49kr3v64zczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7xp06qz As noted last week, the $VIX reversed and is now inching its way back up and tagged the 15 handle. <br/><br/>Expect some more volatility ahead as we come back through the range.<br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/3/3UmBhOu8.png"> <br/><br/><a href="https://iris.to/note1g08rd2q7wfeeas99mqjuclry8qn4m8ngg8rqx4xqyyjyraw6s64q6kf6yp">https://iris.to/note1g08rd2q7wfeeas99mqjuclry8qn4m8ngg8rqx4xqyyjyraw6s64q6kf6yp</a> 2023-09-06T17:52:35Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsy8n3k4q08yuu7czjasfwv03jrsf6ane5yr3sr2nqzzfzp7hdgd2szyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7f5ltsq The $VIX is setting up for a snapback rally and could be setting the stage for a volatile September.<br/><br/>#trading #plebchain<br/> <img src="https://cdn.nostr.build/i/f8d40a158a0bc4f358c2839e6f211cb5717b97cad13213fa6b60602578234827.png"> 2023-08-31T15:37:34Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs2h2reh4uhljklhtxhls82dn9eflqxmz029xa946vwfclk7pxcdugzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv756aztx <img src="https://cdn.nostr.build/i/4b0058563145775f92d5f7451fea78c9794ccbbb437351c0969bdcfcf93ade14.jpg"> 2023-08-31T15:15:52Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs83tx0hjggt6fyfrmtyly8w7r2hzz9ngsg664jnvkp00fhy70qf3qzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7u8vvxz Looks like Ideogram has made some serious progress in cracking the AI text-generating code. <br/><br/><a href="https://ideogram.ai/api/images/direct/ZexKKAgiTRqX_gt89btqfg">https://ideogram.ai/api/images/direct/ZexKKAgiTRqX_gt89btqfg</a><br/><br/> <img src="https://cdn.nostr.build/i/25890926424339ef43cbbbaece7f02a540b87c867264e5c77029c5e1b50411af.jpg"> 2023-08-31T14:41:41Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsxv0z44y33m0ge02vrm7wsr4gy4z30x9esl73nun6n5lqnmwz0cvgzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv793y70l If the US 10 YY breaks over yesterday&#39;s high then the 4.206 is the next likely pivot in play. <br/><br/>Pay attention to what this could mean for the broader market if the market follows this pivot.<br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/s/S3JpsxuU.png"> <br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/D9G7w4tj.png"> <br/> 2023-08-31T13:12:18Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsvyu056q98egtqht20kcd9xwdlw0hzq42zj5a6vy5vh0065zkdulqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv79k3rj0 So how did buying that local top on $BTC go? 🤣<br/><br/>Now home gamers - just imagine if you had gone short. <br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/1/14PcK3S2.png"> <br/><br/><a href="https://iris.to/note1ftwzst0h9hm2fmtnv2dnlffcr4ck9x00v97k4q2urkxzjdw47vfq3vueks">https://iris.to/note1ftwzst0h9hm2fmtnv2dnlffcr4ck9x00v97k4q2urkxzjdw47vfq3vueks</a><br/><br/>#Bitcoin #Trading #BTC #plebchain 2023-08-30T18:50:05Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsxqskuvq9mdh3nm779gkrwaasjt7qgdttj4w27n45v027n4pa9x0qzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv78ghkq0 All eyes on the #jobs report tomorrow. 👀<br/><br/>The US 2 and 10-year yields have retraced their recent upward thrust and this could be the moment buyers step back in.<br/><br/>If the jobs report comes in strong, we could see yields push back up. #economy #trading #plebchain<br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/o/OrCZ02xT.png"> 2023-08-30T14:50:36Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsr4fkxx83g978gkkzqyu9twhu4ttrmx0mew03wgnanp4fspwv79zgzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv779gnm5 In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsqghmn3jd8eddq7agkkv82d7dpdjfeexv6jmc0027vefjw2h3cgvch2lxqr'>nevent1q…lxqr</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>This is the way. 2023-08-30T14:37:32Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs8xxxwepy7atp57k5thd6r52ln9awwqy57sv4dmtfyhc9cy9vs3tqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7rrj233 Call it a slow-motion rug pull. 🦥🐌<br/><br/>Over 170 years ago in January of 1862, United States representative from Ohio, George Pendleton, took the floor and declared that if the members of Congress were to disengage money’s material moorings in gold and silver, they would - <br/><br/> <img src="https://i.imgur.com/TnhbDqn.png"> <br/><br/>From &#34;The Money Plot&#34; by F. Kaufman (2020) 2023-08-29T20:47:33Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsvsf6ech3vahvqqmfa5q8npjlswy2jlj39j5uutq4w043ax4ldudqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7zjr2wg I’m about half way through The Money Plot from F. Kaufman.<br/><br/>So far it’s been pretty wide recounting of the history and use case of money and has some novel stories I haven’t read elsewhere. <br/><br/>I will post a thorough review when I’m done. <img src="https://cdn.nostr.build/i/407d369043691ffed16384134b9b25691aaec2267431752532ac1079bbed231e.jpg"> 2023-08-29T18:36:53Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs8ahkl263h6xugf0sya0ppqn5lmsvqu9jpu4zr2n6nlw7hf5eskhczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7u8srd0 Want to see something cool? 👀<br/><br/>So where did today&#39;s big spike in $BTC take us?<br/><br/>The price went right up to and tested the lower BF trendline that I posted back on August 16th. <br/><br/>One of the most flawed mental models is that price trades in horizontal support/resistance levels. <br/><br/>The markets are always looking for liquidity, which is why you will ALWAYS see higher highs and lower lows. <br/><br/>#bitcoin #BTC #trading #plebchain<br/><br/> <img src="https://cdn.nostr.build/i/72308007180ae995a3e0cfe5b3f4b0f1cce3a9c2ef5bcd151ed51ab0e088ba8d.png"> <br/><br/> <img src="https://cdn.nostr.build/i/8f790c2b636bc29db9964459659619fba4c7aa1cb070191d8f6fd5dc8c6027a7.png"> 2023-08-29T17:57:18Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsy4hpg9hmjma4ya4ek9xel55up6utzn8hkzlt2s9wpmrpfxh2lxyszyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv78qmgmt Always some poor soul buying the breakout at the local top. 😓<br/><br/>#BTC #trading #plebchain<br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/DkhJVOHe.png"> 2023-08-29T17:45:29Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqspf58r83jlmnv88dfq543d9temlu8p4eqhsxp9qf96k0ffr47cz4qzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7cxrme5 I was wondering how the FOMO Momo up condition on the US 10YY would be extinguished.<br/><br/>This is how FOMO rallies end. <br/><br/>Now i&#39;m watching to see how the US 2 and 10 close out month and set up into September. <br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/l/LLUA3th4.png"> 2023-08-29T16:53:10Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqspfy8hnql664hw5ez8q47w6v435fxnj5l2pnn4wwhpnnaxx3z2vkqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7cpq8kp I&#39;m seeing a lot of FOMO across markets - we&#39;re setting up for some late longs to get washed out. 🌊🚽 2023-08-29T16:49:06Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsy8qf4qv29m0lx28hdh0vedxd9lhfzup38r7tlmj6f4e0aq3nrq6szyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7nr5e76 $ETHBTC update<br/><br/>We have ourselves a decent BF playing out and have a clear target near the bottom trendline.<br/><br/>Remember that price drives narratives, so as the price action unfolds, watch for the narratives that get concocted along the way. <br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/n/N5Hqvgai.png"> 2023-08-29T16:46:32Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsz4u869dvuc0gt27u5k052a4m064xehse0s677wty3pw03crj6xnszyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7luchdk In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsy363tpayqsn6mhmdl3wmafwdy5hm7zvdfx7e3alxh5lt6cx789acqcsgey'>nevent1q…sgey</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>My bleeding eyes - ser, this is a chart crime. <br/>Please show axis and scale. 📈📉 2023-08-29T16:40:21Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs0hrxyrqtfyfmcmwykcvt62jp2dhqajdwxzmuymzdj9sfuxd2z4cqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7rnnj90 Don&#39;t be fooled into chasing the price here. <br/><br/>A lot of poor market structure is being left behind, so we are likely to retest the breakout area for liquidity. 2023-08-29T15:53:06Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqst9erxfqpx7z3s7va0mtdtqh8x2ds9qh39h5e0mnds5ad24xlvkwqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv73nflga gm<br/><br/><br/><br/> <img src="https://cdn.nostr.build/i/9768a816db3f1956c554cb149d13213e4aaa848280b36f512498081e4b2d3a66.jpg"> 2023-08-28T13:24:14Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsd9gt726zm2h6evfuvn7p6wp3kx2spuurwlqhxtn7sdl8fngr4glczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7kqy326 Repeat after me - &#34;Markets don&#39;t bottom on Fridays&#34;. 2023-08-25T17:31:47Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsyzah2c9x6emm3rq9j6lv7fjdc0k0jn669qx436hvmhnzc7afva6czyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7xehg0u US 2-year yields about to make new cycle highs. <br/>Here comes the US dollar wrecking ball. 💣<br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/5/56p8SxaG.png"> <br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/d/Dd3BkGcO.png"> 2023-08-25T14:36:34Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsg9swyyyqdwkf50mhk6r6k6vfma7s6jx0dmwc32vypnc69sru0ehgzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv73lxars In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsrhjq3t9q5wmaj6fy7gmm4g0m6hdg7pw6ljfevjkcufan3vnzkzagxaakfu'>nevent1q…akfu</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>🤞 2023-08-24T12:44:18Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsgyz6pfucfvmwkhatrs0lqv45knwc5232w343llv43hh6j7vwt69gzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv73hghgk Here&#39;s one of my all-time favorite trading quotes from a not-so-well-known book called Phantom of the Pits.<br/><br/>&#34;The correct way to control positions is to only hold them once they prove to be correct. Let the market tell you your position is proven correct, but never let the market tell you that your position is wrong. You, as a good trader, must always be in command of knowing and telling yourself when your position is bad.&#34; 2023-08-23T18:35:31Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsqfvcmrl994pcmdqum4hxgznpw64cnzressdkqrrqk69dt9ahlmuqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7u0yvvq I hope you had the chance to smash buy some $BTC.<br/><br/>$BTC gave the &#34;second mouse gets the cheese&#34; entry. <br/><br/>25800 was yesterday&#39;s daily reversal pivot on Binance and we retested that level to the tick this morning. <br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/o/okHUPQMM.png"> <br/><br/>The Fed is holed up in Jackson Hole and while it has often been a nothing burger in summer&#39;s past, all media journalists are waiting with bated breath for Powell to put the proverbial foot in his mouth so be on the lookout for that possibility. <br/><br/>#BTC #trading<br/><br/>Here&#39;s my current book - <br/> <img src="https://i.imgur.com/MtfhfjX.png"> 2023-08-23T15:03:24Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsz40dfqxa8n5err27jq0t7x84k8ng2xdk4lezrxpg24arzwzf0wdgzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7yrqmar In reply to <a href='/nevent1qqsx970zr3nu4r53lxx3y7fplfhqa3lghzktl0pkv5465sa9f2zdgyqsunp4r'>nevent1q…np4r</a><br/>_________________________<br/><br/>🤞 2023-08-23T14:46:57Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsp3prcakhw5ldu25rc7nc9a7dnav37w67v0k2tfmhzr0t0kvzhrpqzyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7xkz6ws I took profits on all my shorts and started nibbling away at the longs. 💰<br/><br/>We had the proverbial flush then vacuum followed by buyers stepping in. <br/><br/>If you&#39;ve been following along then you know that I&#39;ve been short from much higher levels and in the short to medium term I think the better R:R skews to the upside. <br/><br/>My younger trading self would often be greedy or fearful to exit winning positions, but years of repetition have made me comfortable with tactical exits because I know my method will allow me to get back into the trade should price action continue to trend. <br/><br/>#BTC #trading<br/><br/> <img src="https://i.imgur.com/lsmywt0.png"> 2023-08-23T01:15:39Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsvd8umt2e69jtc4myw29k02nfhl3k6rmxzt48ztlsdvzawt7ejxxczyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7m87td3 $ETH update - <br/><br/>The BF posted earlier on $ETH is still unfolding, which brings the 1400 area into play.<br/><br/> <img src="https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/k/KFCheaIv.png"> <br/><br/><a href="https://iris.to/note1qk39cxyjthv3uzh9x7wn5ekp5xn47xhfhlj40aqufaqtyu5xyx2s5sumdy">https://iris.to/note1qk39cxyjthv3uzh9x7wn5ekp5xn47xhfhlj40aqufaqtyu5xyx2s5sumdy</a><br/><br/><br/>#ETH #trading 2023-08-22T20:34:53Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqs2c5pec6l4749e3msycc0p8qzsdvl4emagvxgghg68kyh0d7k077szyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7d3pche Smoked chicken wings with salsa verde. 😋 <img src="https://cdn.nostr.build/i/9a77a92709ad4bc6e4c3451559b58c3d6aa22588aa87b1699189973a4162e7b9.jpg"> 2023-08-22T16:37:10Z https://njump.me/nevent1qqsrp6v03w8gclpvtt8mqhudlwnpwsd84kpx8k7zk3dth60dzqp5g3czyqg5dsx6l7e9egr2y750ycjp9934wqgqwpdf8qwd6dzppc0k43wv7d6kkc5 Still net short and waiting for breadth to get extended before I cover. <br/><br/> <img src="https://i.imgur.com/hCKECML.png"> 2023-08-22T16:16:43Z