Yea this is the only thing that matters IMO
Mt Gox dist, US gov moving Silk Road coins, etc is all just noise. We’ll hold in the 58k-70k range until the fed starts cutting. I’m curious about Wednesday. I don’t expect a cut until Sept at the earliest. I think if JP is even the slightest bit dovish though the market might start pricing in a cut.
I’m still not counting out no cuts this year. They’re in a tight spot between the interest burden and cratering the economy. Fiscal dominance causes more debasement that they don’t get any return on (like infrastructure spending) and is politically unpopular. Rate cuts send a strong signal to the market that they’ve called uncle and they’re going to inflate the debt away === bonds are fucked.
It’s going to be a wild ride. Politicians trying to plant flags on Bitcoin now too? This cycle might be life changing for a lot of people who’ve been accumulating for any time longer than this decade.
The feds next move is all that really matters. The rest is noise. If you’re looking at any timeframe longer than the next few months just ignore the bullshit people are saying and watch the fed.