So if ETFs are raking in huge volumes, why isn't the price higher? My take...
1. BlackRock buys spot bitcoin with new customer dollars. Customers receive ETF shitcoin in return (never redeemable for bitcoin, only government money). This has upward pressure on price.
2. At the same time, BlackRock could (and probably is) opening a short position, using customer bitcoin as collateral. This has equal and opposite price pressure to #1
3. A combination of #1 and #2 causes a soaking up of dollar demand via the ETF, while increasing open interest, and increasing the risk to BlackRock - because BlackRock is massive, and may have some secret access to printed $, the risk is manageable, while attacking Bitcoin, making NGU fail, and making bitcoin adoption seemingly boring. That could be their strategy.
Solution - accept that ETF demand does not contribute to bitcoin price or adoption, and expect some of that interest will be converted to genuine bitcoin buying. When we have nearly all the bitcoin in self custody, the ongoing spot demand will cause the spot price to decouple from ETF price. This will destroy them, but it means we have to be patient. Instead of expecting to see the price track up as we collect all the bitcoin, expect nothing to happen, then one day, expect everything to happen all at once.
Like a sponge that you add drops of water to, one at a time, the sponge collects all the drops, but then at some point, it begins to leak.
During this time when the sponge is collecting all the drops (ienwr buy all the bitcoin without seing price appreciate), the attackers are hoping our interest dwindles, we develop high time preference and sell/enjoy life, instead of fight in the revolution.
Stay strong…
PriorBall ⚡️
npub1305…tdvs
2024-06-08 10:21:33
Author Public Key
npub1305udl7xrgpwza77ewqe8glt8q9r494fkt0xqn4ehvav5qdqk8pskftdvsPublished at
2024-06-08 10:21:33Event JSON
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"content": "So if ETFs are raking in huge volumes, why isn't the price higher? My take...\n\n1. BlackRock buys spot bitcoin with new customer dollars. Customers receive ETF shitcoin in return (never redeemable for bitcoin, only government money). This has upward pressure on price.\n\n2. At the same time, BlackRock could (and probably is) opening a short position, using customer bitcoin as collateral. This has equal and opposite price pressure to #1\n\n3. A combination of #1 and #2 causes a soaking up of dollar demand via the ETF, while increasing open interest, and increasing the risk to BlackRock - because BlackRock is massive, and may have some secret access to printed $, the risk is manageable, while attacking Bitcoin, making NGU fail, and making bitcoin adoption seemingly boring. That could be their strategy.\n\nSolution - accept that ETF demand does not contribute to bitcoin price or adoption, and expect some of that interest will be converted to genuine bitcoin buying. When we have nearly all the bitcoin in self custody, the ongoing spot demand will cause the spot price to decouple from ETF price. This will destroy them, but it means we have to be patient. Instead of expecting to see the price track up as we collect all the bitcoin, expect nothing to happen, then one day, expect everything to happen all at once. \n\nLike a sponge that you add drops of water to, one at a time, the sponge collects all the drops, but then at some point, it begins to leak.\n\nDuring this time when the sponge is collecting all the drops (ienwr buy all the bitcoin without seing price appreciate), the attackers are hoping our interest dwindles, we develop high time preference and sell/enjoy life, instead of fight in the revolution. \n\nStay strong…",
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