老蛮搬运
看历史，我们总对一些蠢死的关键决定扼腕叹息。
但是结合当时真实的决策环境，却能看清，这是当时不得不，最优，且唯一解。
比如唐末，逼着哥舒翰痛哭出潼关。
唐军当时的后勤补给和军费紧迫性，以及这支部队的“成份”，唐末军队开拔前的潜规则了解一下。
没人是傻子，古人能从中低层一路爬，当上大官的更极小概率是傻子。
现在人除了可以有渠道获取当时决策者无法获得的更多信息，避免关键信息不足导致的误判。
以及前人试错确定可以排除的道路可能，纯脑子上，真不见得谁比谁聪明。
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D day
npub1sl…jhazx
2024-08-11 02:38:41
Author Public Key
npub1slszh6dw8z28g23lahdzu6envadkg2qqvvat33avrgcx7yr6eqwq3jhazxPublished at
2024-08-11 02:38:41Event JSON
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"content": "老蛮搬运\n\n看历史，我们总对一些蠢死的关键决定扼腕叹息。\n\n但是结合当时真实的决策环境，却能看清，这是当时不得不，最优，且唯一解。\n\n比如唐末，逼着哥舒翰痛哭出潼关。\n唐军当时的后勤补给和军费紧迫性，以及这支部队的“成份”，唐末军队开拔前的潜规则了解一下。\n\n没人是傻子，古人能从中低层一路爬，当上大官的更极小概率是傻子。\n\n现在人除了可以有渠道获取当时决策者无法获得的更多信息，避免关键信息不足导致的误判。\n以及前人试错确定可以排除的道路可能，纯脑子上，真不见得谁比谁聪明。\nhttps://link.storjshare.io/raw/jupyk67eakmql5qillndsh4gww7a/production/bb04891da88634f51e6778639d648933a71ef35e2d9b0eb9c8371abd282ea2bb.JPG\nhttps://link.storjshare.io/raw/jvhrazjerqxoadqmrcywxlhmlkca/production/2536dc7af9ac80e54877bc71a953ce8a5dcbabbf6a52c274f7718bcea3b2f7f9.JPG\nhttps://link.storjshare.io/raw/jubsnnls6c2d3fxij44ax2lupc2a/production/a43cecfb1918282342776565e1816cf168edc03ad99770e3052c557abc56d6a3.JPG\nhttps://link.storjshare.io/raw/jvrtw7fhbk3bojkq44youktcvnrq/production/d7adacafbe665d239e284e59311b6b13d3baa225f8e767f28df6c18d902b2644.JPG\nhttps://link.storjshare.io/raw/jwihwlmgpfcipeaawjftarguzcbq/production/978bc3e317b9e10f02a01e5b33cb1c76d32ef0a73c0c268df0d659599f1768f6.JPG\nhttps://link.storjshare.io/raw/jvjoriblgqxyrzp4oju6acmezera/production/16c564346ef6d5816fbd2141747fcb267be432dea4122fa94aa25ec8f63ff317.JPG\nhttps://link.storjshare.io/raw/jxlp3kfw6c6jsl26q27p4v22m7qa/production/95abdea4ba9416630879d8633b799cc44af5e8a78aa6b00872bc0b4c5802b129.JPG\nhttps://link.storjshare.io/raw/juybuooudsn3xz5rgo67swj3ojmq/production/e7cdec06f5b4422c2a1d172c19797fb8846ec5fe41e9b564d986a67296001606.JPG\nhttps://link.storjshare.io/raw/jugiyheo52l55mdb3hrfwlxzccda/production/5e578e35ef2779c66bc800f0a573c759a410bf387784b32c0eca8c4a95e949d5.JPG",
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