The potential impacts of the Israel-Hamas escalation on the US inflation, interest rate and stock prices:
1. Oil supply fears fan inflation risks. With M2 money supply already constrained by central banks, this extra inflation impulse would be more persistent.
2. To counter rising inflation, the Fed may have to accelerate interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening. This would reduce liquidity further when it is already flat.
3. Stocks would likely price in higher recession odds over a 6-12 month horizon. The strong dollar adversely impacts US earnings from overseas. This could weigh on stocks as well.
Flextiger
npub1gu…avf6c
2023-10-09 00:29:30
Author Public Key
npub1gu5m9syh529vkw4ncq688cevd8ye3ux5ke70lv30w0dywcr5kj5smavf6cPublished at
2023-10-09 00:29:30Event JSON
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"content": "The potential impacts of the Israel-Hamas escalation on the US inflation, interest rate and stock prices:\n\n1. Oil supply fears fan inflation risks. With M2 money supply already constrained by central banks, this extra inflation impulse would be more persistent.\n\n2. To counter rising inflation, the Fed may have to accelerate interest rate hikes and quantitative tightening. This would reduce liquidity further when it is already flat.\n\n3. Stocks would likely price in higher recession odds over a 6-12 month horizon. The strong dollar adversely impacts US earnings from overseas. This could weigh on stocks as well.",
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