M. Dilger on Nostr: First, I could well be wrong on a lot of this stuff, I can only tell you what I think ...

First, I could well be wrong on a lot of this stuff, I can only tell you what I think based on what I have heard.

I am aware of Russia's position as stated by Putin, and I think it stinks. It is a stupid reason, an "empire" reason, and I'm always against the idea of a great empire controlling vassal states (while recognizing the impossibility of becoming free of them). I also think it is a sales pitch to Russians and that there are other unstated strategic reasons, such as maintaining access to Sevastopol naval base which Russia has had continuous access to since 1783, even while Ukraine had independence (but was friendly and leased it back to Russia). 2014 was the first time Russia was in grave danger of losing that access, and they immediately took action to preserve it. Also, from the people who I've heard from who live in Crimea, they consider themselves Russians not Ukrainians.

I do not think Russia wishes to capture territory occupied by ethnic Ukrainians. I could be wrong here, this is my most uncertain assertion. I have not done an ethnic analysis of the battle lines. But this would be bad news for Russia if they did, like swallowing poisoned food, such regions would just be a thorn in Russia's side, always fighting them for independence, causing no end of troubles for Russia. I think Russia was much more interested in capturing strategic assets and territory where the people were mostly Russian speaking ethnic Russians. EVEN THOUGH most of those ethnic Russian people actually wanted to be independent from Russia (I am NOT saying they wanted to side with Russia just by virtue of being ethnically Russian, I don't think that is true), at least Russia has a far better chance of subsuming those regions than it does of taking ethnically Ukrainian regions.

But the standard mainstream message has been that Russia not only wants to take all of Ukraine, but then to march over Poland and further into Europe. I'll believe it when I see it. That would be madness, and Putin does not seem mad to me. Evil, authoritarian, dictatorial, but not mad.

I know about the ICC warrant and the Russian ethnic cleansing and their activities with children. At first I didn't believe it, I thought it was a simpler thing, such as protecting children who had been ophaned by the war. But I looked closer. They are indeed ethnically cleaning Ukrainians. And you should indeed fight back.

But just like I say to Palestinians: "You can't win. Why don't you just run? Save your family. Move to Argentina or something. Life would be so much better." Some people get mad when I suggest such things, as if I'm working for the enemy. I'm just being logical, trying to keep everybody alive. My family ran and we don't regret it.