M. Dilger on Nostr: People who are security-minded have a natural instinct to prepare for the worst case ...

People who are security-minded have a natural instinct to prepare for the worst case scenario. This leads them to imagine their enemies to be highly capable, murderous, colluding, nameless and faceless cabals. This is a good and correct instinct for preparing your defenses - you want to be able to defend even against this worst case scenario.

However, too many people use this same rubric wrongly when trying to assess actual events. The odds that an actual adversary is the worst case scenerio, is highly capable and in collusion with others who are highly capable, in any given actual event is very low. Incompetence is far more widespread than people realize. And parallel action (similar minds acting similarly) explains the vast majority of things that appear to be conspiracies.

To believe that Trump was shot as a false flag you have to believe that there was a shooter so perfect that he could perfectly clip Trump's ear even while Trump was gesticulating and rotating his head back and forth. You have to presume that they are murdering, willing to kill members of the audience to make it appear more real.

Just because that case is possible doesn't mean you should default to it. People who default to the belief that this was a false flag to garner sympathy for Trump, based entirely on the fact that an ear-clip is quite a lucky circumstance for Trump, do not have IMHO very good judgement. But they all probably make very good security-minded people because they are defaulting to the worst case scenario which is the right way for a security-minded person to think.