BitcoinAlchemist on Nostr: Prediction markets on elections or sports are fiat misdirections of attention and ...

Prediction markets on elections or sports are fiat misdirections of attention and liquidity. The significance of one puppet or another as president of the USA is about as significant as the outcome of a sports match.

If prediction markets are going to be tools to forecast the future, then the questions themselves must be focused on the potential outcomes of significant events. Crowdsourcing the questions and enabling anyone to ask is just as important as the ability for anyone to participate by betting.

Might this where nostr can play a critical role? Censorship resistance enables people to ask (and answer) important questions that fiat mechanisms might try to censor. Enabling anybody to ask questions (by providing liquidity for shares via a LMSR AMM, could be secured over DLCs) and incentivising anyone to answer (by enabling anyone to place a bet) could facilitate a decentralised and censorship resistant forecasting mechanism.