SpyMasterTrades on Nostr: Look closely at these charts. On the left is 150 years of U.S. #stock market ...
Look closely at these charts.
On the left is 150 years of U.S. #stock market performance. Currently, the stock market is pressing against the +2 standard deviation of a log-linear regression channel applied over its 150 years of data.
On the right is the U.S. #GDP growth since 1947. It's barely hanging onto the -2 standard deviation of a log-linear regression channel applied over its 76 years of data.
Never before has the stock market been so deviated above its long-term mean while GDP so deviated below its long-term mean. Perhaps what's so surprising about this chart is that GDP is barely clinging onto its -2 standard deviation, but the market perceives GDP growth as strong and resilient.
What we're dealing with right now is a massive asset bubble that is being caused by excessive currency creation by the central bank. Asset bubbles tend to only get bigger. However, they also become increasingly hard to sustain over time as increases in the money supply result in increasingly smaller gains in productivity. The ultimate consequence is higher inflation, though central governments obfuscate this fact and use obscure tactics to delude the public into believing inflation is much lower than it actually is.
This is unsustainable, and it will eventually come to an end. In the meantime, get ready for many years of increasing inflation. Those counting on deep deflation will be deeply disappointed in the years ahead, as the only thing that will reliably deflate is one's wealth in the face of a perpetually increasing supply of new fiat currency.
Published at
2023-12-12 21:58:17Event JSON
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"content": "Look closely at these charts. \n\nOn the left is 150 years of U.S. #stock market performance. Currently, the stock market is pressing against the +2 standard deviation of a log-linear regression channel applied over its 150 years of data.\n\nOn the right is the U.S. #GDP growth since 1947. It's barely hanging onto the -2 standard deviation of a log-linear regression channel applied over its 76 years of data. \n\nNever before has the stock market been so deviated above its long-term mean while GDP so deviated below its long-term mean. Perhaps what's so surprising about this chart is that GDP is barely clinging onto its -2 standard deviation, but the market perceives GDP growth as strong and resilient.\n\nWhat we're dealing with right now is a massive asset bubble that is being caused by excessive currency creation by the central bank. Asset bubbles tend to only get bigger. However, they also become increasingly hard to sustain over time as increases in the money supply result in increasingly smaller gains in productivity. The ultimate consequence is higher inflation, though central governments obfuscate this fact and use obscure tactics to delude the public into believing inflation is much lower than it actually is.\n\nThis is unsustainable, and it will eventually come to an end. In the meantime, get ready for many years of increasing inflation. Those counting on deep deflation will be deeply disappointed in the years ahead, as the only thing that will reliably deflate is one's wealth in the face of a perpetually increasing supply of new fiat currency.\n\nhttps://m.primal.net/HTfd.png",
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