SpyMasterTrades on Nostr: Today, the S&P 500 experienced an extreme event. During the #FOMC press conference, ...
Today, the S&P 500 experienced an extreme event.
During the #FOMC press conference, the #SPX briefly exceeded the Bollinger Bands' +3 standard deviation on the daily timeframe. This event rarely occurs, and only occurs during extreme market optimism.
The #VIX did not confirm the higher move-up as it created a higher low over yesterday's trading session while the #SPX created a higher high. The last time this type of divergence occurred was 6 years ago in November 2017, about two months before a significant #volspike (VIX went to 50).
The current S&P 500 environment remains consistent with the end of a business cycle when the Fed stops tightening and the market believes a soft landing has been accomplished because the ensuing recession has not yet started. More often than not the #SPX reaches new ATHs during this period.
So far in December, the VIX futures term structure remains in deep contango and the yield curve remains deeply inverted, both of which further confirm that we're at the end of a business cycle.
An economic #recession is likely to begin in the U.S. by the end of 2024. It will likely be stagflationary with inflation remaining high even as demand continues to cool.
Published at
2023-12-13 21:59:24Event JSON
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"content": "Today, the S\u0026P 500 experienced an extreme event. \n\nhttps://m.primal.net/HTmJ.png\n\nDuring the #FOMC press conference, the #SPX briefly exceeded the Bollinger Bands' +3 standard deviation on the daily timeframe. This event rarely occurs, and only occurs during extreme market optimism. \n\nThe #VIX did not confirm the higher move-up as it created a higher low over yesterday's trading session while the #SPX created a higher high. The last time this type of divergence occurred was 6 years ago in November 2017, about two months before a significant #volspike (VIX went to 50).\n\nThe current S\u0026P 500 environment remains consistent with the end of a business cycle when the Fed stops tightening and the market believes a soft landing has been accomplished because the ensuing recession has not yet started. More often than not the #SPX reaches new ATHs during this period.\n\nSo far in December, the VIX futures term structure remains in deep contango and the yield curve remains deeply inverted, both of which further confirm that we're at the end of a business cycle.\n\nAn economic #recession is likely to begin in the U.S. by the end of 2024. It will likely be stagflationary with inflation remaining high even as demand continues to cool.",
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