- The most recent polls occured during the 'P-word' hoax, which is likely to have increased the propensity for respondents planning to vote #ReformUK to pretend they're not going to.
- The bizarre specticle of the hoax simultaniously being revealed all over Social Media while Sunak cried "Wacist" over the Corporate media has pissed people off no end, and will favour Reform.
- Innefectual weirdo Oliver Dowden (Deputy PM - Borehamwood) is now trying to do a UK-flavour reenactment of The Russia Hoax™ albeit so badly crafted that the source hasn't even bothered to remove the Soros funding logos from their website.
- Starmer is as Deep State as a Salmon & Dill Pret-a-manger baguette in a designer leather manbag. The Scots dislike him; pro-palestine voters won't turn-out for him; and he looks more like anarchetypical hock of gammon than even Farage... who is incidentally vowing to end both wars and is attracting major donations from prominent Muslim businessmen.
- Farage is a household name. He has more than double the number of followers across social media compared to Starmer. Reform UK is getting exponentially more engagements than the other two parties.
If the most recent polls are wrong by more than 8 points (swing), which I think they are, then Reform will pip Labour and we'll have a hung parliement. I concur with your view that Farage will then be PM some time in 2024. My each-way bet is Rees-Mogg.
quotingA not completely implausible scenario to fear:
nevent1q…99c2
Nigel Farage wins Clacton & becomes MP.
In post election Tory chaos, Reform suggest merger with Right-Tory rump.
Tory party splits with Reform uniting with ultra Right Tories & manage to retain party name.
Tory/Reform form 'official' opposition.
Leadership election which Farage wins.
Election 2025 between exhausted Labour party unable to fix the wreckage bequeathed to them by Tories vs. Farage 'the people's savour'!
unthinkable? God I hope so