SpyMasterTrades on Nostr: We will likely see a spike in reverse repos tonight and a sharp drop at the start of ...
We will likely see a spike in reverse repos tonight and a sharp drop at the start of 2024 due to window dressing.
#RRPs will likely descend to zero within the first several months of 2024. Subsequently, #RPs will begin to rise dramatically. This will mark a Fed pivot because it will cause a reversal in the total number of assets on the Fed's balance sheet ( #WALCL ). In other words, the Fed will soon be transitioning from obfuscated monetary easing to overt monetary easing. It will stop increasing the monetary base by unwinding #RRPs and start increasing the monetary base by winding up #RPs.
It will be after this point that #stagflation will become apparent. The charts continue to suggest that the coming stagflation may be the worst on record. Rarely do price pressures increase as demand softens, but this will likely characterize the coming recession. In a deglobalizing world, where countries are increasing the percentage of their #GDP that goes into destructive ends (conflicts) while GDP itself slows and debt balloons, a severely stagflationary outcome is likely.
What we're dealing with right now therefore is not just a business cycle rollover (i.e. recession), we're dealing with a supercycle rollover as well. The supercycle of generally falling interest rates over time is over. In the new supercycle, monetary easing and interest rate cuts will quickly be met with higher inflation.
Published at
2023-12-29 19:44:03Event JSON
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"content": "We will likely see a spike in reverse repos tonight and a sharp drop at the start of 2024 due to window dressing. \n\n#RRPs will likely descend to zero within the first several months of 2024. Subsequently, #RPs will begin to rise dramatically. This will mark a Fed pivot because it will cause a reversal in the total number of assets on the Fed's balance sheet ( #WALCL ). In other words, the Fed will soon be transitioning from obfuscated monetary easing to overt monetary easing. It will stop increasing the monetary base by unwinding #RRPs and start increasing the monetary base by winding up #RPs.\n\nIt will be after this point that #stagflation will become apparent. The charts continue to suggest that the coming stagflation may be the worst on record. Rarely do price pressures increase as demand softens, but this will likely characterize the coming recession. In a deglobalizing world, where countries are increasing the percentage of their #GDP that goes into destructive ends (conflicts) while GDP itself slows and debt balloons, a severely stagflationary outcome is likely.\n\nWhat we're dealing with right now therefore is not just a business cycle rollover (i.e. recession), we're dealing with a supercycle rollover as well. The supercycle of generally falling interest rates over time is over. In the new supercycle, monetary easing and interest rate cuts will quickly be met with higher inflation.\n\nhttps://m.primal.net/HVqI.png",
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