juraj on Nostr: How to make sense of recent attacks on Bitcoin, parallel financial systems and ...
How to make sense of recent attacks on Bitcoin, parallel financial systems and individuals
It seems like a coordinated attack, not only coincidence. But things not be as they seem. While I can't rule out coincidence or coordination with the goal of destroying, I think it is something else...
I think it is coordination in decentralized system.
Premises:
- when you count reserves (and not demand deposits), Bitcoin is 6th largest reserve asset. It is around 20% of usd dollar reserves. This is not without reaction. IMF has included a condition not to make BTC legal tender in its loans terms and conditions. BTC is a way out, not only for individuals
- the upcoming elections in the US and bitcoin being a polarizing force. Decels attack it on unfounded environmental claims. It does not matter they don't know what they're talking about. They want votes, they sing a song that will lure in more voters, regardless of the factual basis. Politics is acting and storytelling.
- the real threat is people having a way out. But my premise is that there is no single actor that is incentivized enough to do something real about it.
I think what we see is emergence of micro level behavior:
- sec, central banks, etc are seeing the evaporation of their power. Organizations such as fatf-gafi and OECD see that their effort is not as fruitful, because people run software that does not dance to its tune. They do many small decisions to make it harder for us, every bureacrat seeing they have less power will do something, but there's no boss that is focused on delivering. At least not yet.
- institutions that found and used the exit are more powerful than ever. El Salvador is successful and does not regret using the exit door. Not because of legal tender, but because they buy it and use it themselves at the state level. On this level, BTC is true fuck you money
- many prosecutors and investigators see that putting Bitcoiners in jail has huge political capital and makes careers. Again, not coordinated in such a way "let's hit them all", more like "now is the time". Politically (before elections), it's a career making show of power.
I can't prove this, but this line of thinking is important, because it suggests that:
- lobbying is a waste of time
- there's no mastermind, it's emergent
- lunarpunk thesis is important
One possible development in the US: free people of America, we have you access to very nice and clean Bitcoin through ETF products, there's no money laundering, you can keep making money, but don't touch the real reserves, there are institutions with our approval that will do it for you. Soft ban on self custody, kill payment protocols, integrate asset to the financial system.
Don't predict the end game, there might not be one. Even the central planners have different objectives that are rarely aligned and there's power struggle within the hierarchy. What appears as conspiracy is just result of the internal conflict within the hierarchy.
It seems like a coordinated attack, not only coincidence. But things not be as they seem. While I can't rule out coincidence or coordination with the goal of destroying, I think it is something else...
I think it is coordination in decentralized system.
Premises:
- when you count reserves (and not demand deposits), Bitcoin is 6th largest reserve asset. It is around 20% of usd dollar reserves. This is not without reaction. IMF has included a condition not to make BTC legal tender in its loans terms and conditions. BTC is a way out, not only for individuals
- the upcoming elections in the US and bitcoin being a polarizing force. Decels attack it on unfounded environmental claims. It does not matter they don't know what they're talking about. They want votes, they sing a song that will lure in more voters, regardless of the factual basis. Politics is acting and storytelling.
- the real threat is people having a way out. But my premise is that there is no single actor that is incentivized enough to do something real about it.
I think what we see is emergence of micro level behavior:
- sec, central banks, etc are seeing the evaporation of their power. Organizations such as fatf-gafi and OECD see that their effort is not as fruitful, because people run software that does not dance to its tune. They do many small decisions to make it harder for us, every bureacrat seeing they have less power will do something, but there's no boss that is focused on delivering. At least not yet.
- institutions that found and used the exit are more powerful than ever. El Salvador is successful and does not regret using the exit door. Not because of legal tender, but because they buy it and use it themselves at the state level. On this level, BTC is true fuck you money
- many prosecutors and investigators see that putting Bitcoiners in jail has huge political capital and makes careers. Again, not coordinated in such a way "let's hit them all", more like "now is the time". Politically (before elections), it's a career making show of power.
I can't prove this, but this line of thinking is important, because it suggests that:
- lobbying is a waste of time
- there's no mastermind, it's emergent
- lunarpunk thesis is important
One possible development in the US: free people of America, we have you access to very nice and clean Bitcoin through ETF products, there's no money laundering, you can keep making money, but don't touch the real reserves, there are institutions with our approval that will do it for you. Soft ban on self custody, kill payment protocols, integrate asset to the financial system.
Don't predict the end game, there might not be one. Even the central planners have different objectives that are rarely aligned and there's power struggle within the hierarchy. What appears as conspiracy is just result of the internal conflict within the hierarchy.