Programmabletx

"But I felt I could do one thing if I had the opportunity. I could accumulate ideas, and impart them to others."

- Jude The Obscure

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npub13yrcjh6v8efapytwfssvz5awxh23vry9uu2e3hu72xzm03e0fges47epkg

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[email protected]

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nprofile1qqsgjpuftaxru57sj9hycgxp2whrt4gkpjz7w9vcm709rpdhcuh55vcpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dsa9wrjq

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relay.damus.io

nos.lol

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npub13yrcjh6v8efapytwfssvz5awxh23vry9uu2e3hu72xzm03e0fges47epkg

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Last Notes

2023-10-04 20:36:36

The Promises Men Live By
Harry Scherman
published 1938
...after all, economics is a special field of knowledge. Is there any particular reason, one may well ask, why all men, or even many men, should be fully informed in it? We cannot in this hard world hope to be omniscient. Why not leave this branch of inquiry, as other branches are left, to the experts? There is no practical need discernible for any wide diffusion of understanding about Professor Einstein's theories of relativity. No disastrous consequences seem to arise from the almost universal absence of understanding of the simplest aspects of chemistry, physics, astronomy, geology, archaeology, philology, botany, and a hundred other fields of inquiry that might be cited. The rest of us can go about our own pursuits, safe in the confidence that the discovery of truth in these fields will slowly seep into the general body of wisdom the race inherits and will change our lives, if at all, in that slow way. Certainly, the common ignorance that prevails about such sciences seems to have no immediate harmful social consequences.
The reverse is true of economics. It differs indeed, in this respect, from almost every other pursuit of knowledge that one can think of. With the world constituted as it now is, the well-nigh universal ignorance among men as to how their society functions, since it determines the nature of their actions, is itself a governing factor, which can be seen operating in a thousand positive ways, in what currently happens to the human race. This universal ignorance has the most direct effect the fortunes of every single one of us, upon how we live and what we are compelled to do every day (that is the point!) whether or not we are conscious of the compulsion. What the great masses of men, for example, do not know about the processes of trade and even the very nature of trade; what they do not know about what they call their money -all this ignorance has a far more profound influence upon the daily welfare of each one of us than what a few men do know!
The disasters, which proceed from this ignorance, come first from those who have acquired the position of leadership in our states. Their policies and their acts, when misguided in an economic sense -as we have seen only too unhappily in the past quarter-century may engulf literally tens of millions of human beings in the most tragic circumstances. It is a bitter truth that the masses of men have had to pay, through their suffering, for the education of their leaders in economics; in spite of which, too often, no education seems to result.
Nevertheless, these persons, whom we allow to rule us, are only partly to blame. They acquire whatever power they have from our acquiescence. Their ignorance is really but a segment of our own, and rests finally upon our own.
xx

2023-09-08 04:55:10

Breedlove and I are finally wrapping up the Twilight Of Gold series.
Episode 13 is sort of a catch-up episode since the series has been on hiatus for a year. We talk a lot about the Shanghai Gold Exchange International Board.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=7YQz1BxH278
In Episode 14 we analyze the controversy around Churchill's 1925 decision to revalue the pound sterling at $4.86 USD, what narratives were spun around this move, and how it has implications for us today.
Also at 01:01:40 you can hear the beginning of a five minute long chunk where I figure out in real time that I do not like BIP300.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=jmk1PDyga9w

2023-07-16 06:18:00

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Just zapped him. Holy shit.

2023-05-08 00:53:38

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Shhhhh!

2023-05-05 17:46:37

Stunning line from The Bitcoin Layer by Nik Bhatia:
"With the wave of failures seen and to be seen, it doesn’t seem as if a single depositor will face losses. An implicit nationalization of all deposits is now broad consensus, and no laws had to be passed in order for this to occur."
https://open.substack.com/pub/thebitcoinlayer/p/full-blown-banking-crisis-is-here?r=9ac8&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post

2023-05-05 17:44:21

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It's never ending. I was drinking way too much Celsius for a while just to function.

2023-05-05 17:28:25

"But I felt I could do one thing if I had the opportunity. I could accumulate ideas, and impart them to others."
- Jude The Obscure

2023-04-20 01:40:18

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We're constantly exhausted and we always have colds and weekends feel like an eternity.

2023-03-29 04:13:51

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Yeah it's the fucking worst.

2023-03-27 03:17:02

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Fucking great idea.

2023-03-26 05:11:27

One should never have to use their true identity for any online service ever.

2023-03-25 09:52:09

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Ug, sorry for a few critical typos above, including two places where the word "gold" mistakenly appears instead of "Bitcoin."

2023-03-25 09:43:06

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Yes I'm really happy to have unearthed the original draft. It echoes literally everything I've been thinking about, or rather, my thoughts have echoed his since he was 7 years ahead of me.
Good to see you over here on Nostr btw! It's like we've all picked up and moved to a new school district or something.

2023-03-24 18:02:28

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Prior to the introduction is where the two versions of the paper differ, and where we see a negative bias seems to have crept into the 2016 version.
The 2015 jumps into the introduction, but the 2016 includes a "Non-technical summary" before the introduction. The summary begins like this:
"This paper extrapolates the growth of Bitcoin as a medium of exchange and conducts the following thought experiment: Suppose that the use of Bitcoin has grown to such an extent that it has replaced existing fiat currencies and has become the predominant medium of exchange or at least the backing for the predominant medium of exchange in a large group of countries."
This presupposition is flawed in my opinion, due to the fact that Bitcoin is not designed, nor is it technically capable of being a worldwide medium of exchange (unless payment layers are built on top**). A Bitcoin Standard would come about not because of Bitcoin's universal medium of exchange capability, but because of it's universal store of value capability COMBINED with it's robustness as a network which has the potential to withstand attack from a nation state (See Erik Voskuil's Axiom Of Resistance). It is these two qualities in tandem which make Bitcoin a comparable asset to gold, in that like gold, there is no way for governments to control the protocol. In the case of gold the protocol is the atomic property of the metal. In the case of gold the protocol is determined by node software that each user chooses to run independently.
If I could amend this section (which exists in a different section of the 2015 paper as well) I would presume the attainment of a global gold standard through the organic, and widespread use of Bitcoin for any purpose at all, but chiefly as a savings tool for the currency, and as a settlement technology for bitcoin the network.
This summary section of the 2016 version recaps the points made in the abstract, but highlights a 4th point:
"4. There would still be financial crises, because they can occur under any fractional reserve financial system."
This is quite true, so I strongly agree with Weber that a feature of the Bitcoin standard would include occasional banking crises. This is actually not the negative part yet. The negative part is next. He writes:
"The paper concludes by speculating that even if the Bitcoin standard were to come into existence, it would not last long, for two reasons: (1) The payments world is changing so rapidly that there will be a technological innovation that provides a potential medium of exchange with the same or greater benefits of Bitcoin or with lower costs. Such an innovation could come either from the private sector or from the government. (2) There would be pressure to return to a fiat money system so that a more activist monetary policy could be pursued."
**Part 1 above is nullified by the fact that Bitcoin requires payment layers. It's universal usage via these layers would obsolete any payment technology and or shitcoin which promised "faster cheaper." The first draft of this paper was published before the Lightning paper by Poon and Dryja came out. So Weber was likely unaware of efforts to scale Bitcoin in layers. Therefore this caveat can be disregarded entirely in my opinion. But to throw even more finality on the subject, it's worth pointing out that "faster, cheaper payments) is an illusion when you understand that "fastness" refers to settlement time, and settlement time is a function of energy expended by the network, NOT by simply changing a perameter in the code to show "faster" confirmations. For a more complete explanation of this please see my tweet thread from 2021: https://twitter.com/ProgrammableTx/status/1394530758358798341?s=20
Weber's second point about pressure to return to a fiat money standard so that activist monetary policy could be pursued is an extremely valid point. But it was much more valid in 2015 and 1016 than it is today. the assertion was made prior to the events of 2020-2023 which have demonstrated the frailties and abuse which is inevitable when activist monetary policy is enacted. This question is a political question which does not present an obvious solution to the financial game theory. Remember that the premise of the paper is that the world has reach a global bitcoin standard through organic use, any citizens or politicians campaigning for a return to activist monetary policy would exist alongside holders of Bitcoin, both nations and individuals. How these competing interests play out is anyone's guess. Especially if you see this question in light of my alteration to Weber's premise, namely that the global bitcoin standard has come about because it is already used by citizens of the world for savings and for exchange. If that state of adoption has occurred then a political campaign to undermine it would face entrenched interests.
https://void.cat/d/UekBTDSuSCBptqePgCDiJX.webp

2023-03-24 17:18:20

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Bullet points:
The paper assumes that under a Bitcoin Standard, fiduciary media, or state currencies will still exist. They will not be fully backed by Bitcoin, but they will be redeemable 1:1 at a fixed ratio for Bitcoin.
1. Due to near zero transactions costs for international (large) transactions, interest rate arbitrage would prevent countries from conducting localized, stimulative interest rate policies under the bitcoin standard, as it would quickly lead to capital flight of Bitcoin reserves, which would be deflationary and put banks at risk.
2. By issuing a national currency, central banks would still have LIMITED ability to act as lenders of last resort.
3. Based on comparable figures during the Classical Gold Standard period, Weber believes there would persistent be mild deflation (about 3%) , low nominal interest rates, fixed currency exchange rates, and good output growth under the bitcoin standard.

2023-03-24 02:25:21

I've spent the last two years contemplating the classical gold standard, looking for glimpses of how a Bitcoin standard could work.
Somehow I missed a fantastic paper on the subject.
It's called The Bitcoin Standard: Lessons From The Gold Standard. It was written by Warren E. Weber, who was then a visiting scholar at the Bank Of Canada.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/bitcoin-standard-lessons.pdf
Bitcoin Magazine wrote about this paper in 2017: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/bank-canada-report-imagining-bitcoin-standard-financial-system
The Bitcoin Magazine article summarizes the paper as being negative on the idea of a Bitcoin Standard. Upon reading the actual paper for myself, however, I don't think the conclusion is negative at all. At least not the ORIGINAL version....
See, there are two versions of this paper on the internet. The first was written in 2015. The paper was then revised in 2016. And the conclusions of both of these drafts are different in FASCINATING ways. The 2015 version, as a complete work, is amazing, and in my opinion the better paper. The conclusion is nuanced, though somewhat incomplete IMO for several reasons. But overall the 2015 paper posits a bold and sound thesis: that a Bitcoin standard WOULD ACTUALLY WORK in practice.
Weber's paper is remarkably ahead of his time. I mean, Saifedean's Book, "The Bitcoin Standard" seemed radical when it was published a full 3 years after Weber.
My guess is that Weber's ideas must have surprised a few people in the banking establishment. I further surmise that he got some feedback which caused him to throw in a more downbeat ending to the 2016 version.
I'll summarize both versions over the next couple weeks in a thread here.
In short, I am even more convinced now that a global Bitcoin standard would work. I think the author would agree.
Thanks for your great work Warren Weber.
https://void.cat/d/44GFLBAA9ohLDYyNvFGT28.webp

2023-03-09 10:31:46

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I consider this a possibility.

2023-03-08 23:52:20

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Wow.

2023-03-08 02:51:16

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*inflation not information.

2023-03-08 02:38:10

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Totally agree with this. The persistent price inflation we are experiencing is the result of decades of monetary information finally being shifted from financial assets to real goods, and commodity prices will only go HIGHER when the companies that actually make things go under due to exorbitant financing costs.

2023-03-06 21:13:50

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That's my experience for sure.

2023-03-06 20:27:44

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I finally have a workflow that I'm really comfortable with for my spendable utxos. First I withdraw them to a Samourai wallet on an old Android phone. I let them sit there for various, non-uniform amounts of time. After letting them age, I use paynym to transfer them to a different Samourai wallet that's connected to the Ronin back end. From there I mix them in Whirlpool and keep mixing them until it's time to spend.

2023-03-06 20:18:03

Servers I have running at home:
RoninDojo Tanto (Samourai wallet)
Umbrel
Urbit
Synology
and of course Bitcoin Core on my windows desktop.
The ones I use the most on a day to day basis are the Synology and the Samourai servers.
I'm getting some sweet new hardware for the Urbit server today courtesy of my dear friend #[0] and https://www.nativeplanet.io/. It looks completely rad. Photos to come.

2023-03-06 19:23:07

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This is the only known cure.
https://open.spotify.com/track/1Bj6YgjjPbEb4jhQ50T8tJ?si=7VcKv3KXS7ODcOmQqlb8mw

2023-03-06 18:57:46

My wife let me buy my dream gun for my birthday. Kriss Vector. I'm still pretty new to firearms, btw, so when I showed up at the rifle range and kept missing the target I didn't think the sights might be the problem. Then a nice dude at the range offered to help get them lined up if I came back another day. I'm hoping to do that this week.

2023-03-06 18:51:36

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I used to blame religion for mass warfare, and I'm sure that before the 20th century they were an effective tool for organized violence. But it seems that once we hit WW1, way more death was wrought by appeals to national identity, statehood, and complex interjurisdictional treaties.

2023-03-06 18:45:33

After a few months of playing around with anonaddy.com, I finally have my anonymous email forwarding the way I like it. They key for me was setting up a custom domain, and I can create new aliases on the fly for that domain. I'm not affiliated with anonaddy. I just like how it has worked for me. You can pay in Bitcoin. I highly recommend this service.

2023-03-06 18:40:46

I'm an atheist and I have been since I was 18. Yet a huge percentage of the people I spend time listening to are hardcore Bitcoiners and religiously devout. It's interesting.

2023-03-04 03:13:30

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I just tried to zap you but your LNurl still isn't working. Get a Wallet Of Satoshi address and call it a day till you and I can get our LN nodes configured.

2023-03-04 03:03:43

Check out this passage from "Twilight Of Gold"
"The international gold standard was, historically, one of the most important adjuncts to the opening of the world to settlement and development. This creation of a world economy constituted one of the great and beneficial turning points in the history of mankind. The outstanding feature of that period was the unity of the economic world... There was freedom of travel without passports, freedom of migration, and freedom from exchange control and other monetary restrictions. Citizenship was freely granted to immigrants … capital would move unsupervised in any direction, and these movements could take any form."
And then this passage from Lyn Alden's latest article..
"The combination of an open monetary network and an open information network is pretty interesting. Programmable bearer asset money can move around frictionlessly across borders, and between platforms. Platforms can be interoperable with each other without directly working with each other to make it happen, simply because they are interfacing with the same underlying protocols."
Conclusion: Bitcoin is fostering a unified economic world that it will extend beyond the information economy and into every aspect of global economy.
Lyn's full article:
https://www.swanbitcoin.com/the-implications-of-open-monetary-and-information-networks/

2023-03-04 00:35:28

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You are my FUCKING HERO.

2023-03-02 06:07:27

Nunchuk wallet and tapsigner is quickly becoming my favorite wallet platform. I wanted to test what would happen if the original tapsigner was lost. I restored the "lost" tapsigner key using backup+password, and Nunchuk seamlessly swapped the restored key into the quorum, but as a software key.
Then, as if I "found" the lost key, I re-imported the tapsigner into the key library as a new NFC key, and Nunchuk automagically re-swapped the original tapsigner key back into the quorum, replacing the previously restored software key.
Tres impressive!

2023-03-02 00:38:28

I don't remember how I originally uploaded my avatar photo to Nostr and I can't figure out how to change it.

2023-02-27 18:38:24

"The commercialization of sovereignty itself depends upon the willingness of hundreds of thousands of Sovereign Individuals and many millions of others to deploy their assets in the “First Bank of Nowhere” in order to secure immunity from direct compulsion."
Nothing describes Bitcoin better than this prediction from The Sovereign Individual.

2023-01-28 06:06:04

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I have zero channels and I'm looking for my first hookup. I'd be much obliged to anyone willing to open with me.

2023-01-27 17:59:35

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I just listened to your Bitcoin.Review episode and wanted to chime in on one point, which is one reason why a cashu type token will be necessary in the future. Credit will still exist on a Bitcoin standard, and creditors won't want to loan actual Bitcoin. The risk of loss is too great. What they will use instead is some type of fiduciary media which can be clawed back in the case of loss or death. Could cashu serve this purpose?

2023-01-26 06:11:38

Seems to me that Nostr makes Urbit a little less necessary because now I have a persistent identity which I control through private keys. To me that was the main advantage of Urbit.

2022-12-30 00:39:29

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Thanks so much for saying that. It dominated several months of my life. I hope someday soon I have the time to go further with that research.

2022-12-30 00:03:23

#[0] Verifying My Public Key: "@Programmabletx"

2022-12-29 23:59:08

#[0] Verifying My Public Key: "@programmabletx"