I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis. 🇿🇦
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2025-06-12T12:53:00Z Event JSON
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Last Notes npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit What have we done? npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Also: npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Image 1: The Opportunity of Energy Efficiency rmi.org/the-opportun... npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit “We have a new energy crisis, and efficiency is the largest, cheapest, safest, cleanest, and fastest way to address it.”—Amory Lovins, RMI npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Source: npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit “When we excavate the remains of past civilizations, we rarely find any evidence that they made any attempts to adapt in the face of a changing climate. I view this inflexibility as the real reason for collapse.”—Dr. Jason Ur, Harvard University npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit There are 3.3 - 3.6 billion people who live in hotspots of high vulnerability to climate change. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit These people DO NOT care about the planet they are trashing! npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit 100% this👇🏻 npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Australia had some serious heat in March - many places breaking records: npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit NEW from Hansen, Kelly & Kharecha: npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit The RONI value is for Dec-Feb npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit March 31st data still has to be verified, but in the ERA5 dataset March 2025 ends at +1.60ºC above preindustrial. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Focus! npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit 🤣 npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Adding global weather to econ models spikes projected climate costs, slashing 'optimal' warming from 2.7°C→1.7°C npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit And another reply npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Testing comment replies npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Testing comments npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit testing comments npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Testing comments npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit @cityatlas.bsky.social thanks for surfacing the March 17 statement! npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Remember this from October 2024? npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit South Africa is not immune npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit South Africa is not immune npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Places and people most as risk as we race towards +2°C npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit NEW from NOAA ENSO blog npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit NEW Climate Change in Japan 2025 report. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit More from this area: npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit This all at a background heating of ~1.5°C and CO2 at 423 ppm (2024 average preliminary) npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit More places facing similar issues also highlighted in this research. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Many places face remarkable challenges as we continue to heat. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Details: npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast via WMO for period April-June (Prepared March 20th) npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit 2°C will be here in 15 years or sooner - ie 2036-2040 npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit “Despite the increase in emissions, clean energy technologies are making a difference.”—IEA npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Most middle to high income earners are using *way* more energy than is required for a decent living standard. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit South Africa has not escaped the impacts of an atmosphere containing 423 ppm CO2 concentrations and the resulting global +1.59ºC 12-month running mean above preindustrial. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Did you know? npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Any property owner (or potential buyer) needs to understand that there are *many* properties that will become stranded assets in the next 15 years. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit “Why aren’t we discussing the world’s hottest topic?” by @fionakatauskas.bsky.social npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit #Heatwaves made up 22% of the 617 extreme events reported in 2024. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit What you will quickly discover is that there are low and high leverage “levers” and that there is not one single “lever” that will get us to where we need to be. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Here is a link to the En-ROADS simulator where you can experiment with all 18 major policies: npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit 2. Switch to a plant based diet & be ruthless with food waste. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Data shows that most high to middle income earners, in many countries, use WAY MORE energy than is required for a decent living standard (blue bar) npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit As an individual what of the above “levers” can you “pull”? npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Here is a list of at least 18 “levers” we could have pulled to achieve the above. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Of course the failure to keep temperatures below 1.5°C and now very likely 2°C is a choice we made. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Also we have a good understanding of the impacts of these failures. Here is the IPCC data. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit As a result of the above reality, I cannot emphasise this more👇🏻 npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Of course this debate regarding where we are is a distraction npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit “The best estimates of current global warming from these three approaches are between 1.34°C and 1.41°C [mean 1.375°C] compared to the 1850 1900 baseline; however, given the uncertainty ranges, 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙥𝙤𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙗𝙞𝙡𝙞𝙩𝙮 𝙩𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙬𝙚 𝙝𝙖𝙫𝙚 𝙖𝙡𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙙𝙮 𝙚𝙭𝙘𝙚𝙚𝙙𝙚𝙙 1.5°𝘾 𝙘𝙖𝙣𝙣𝙤𝙩 𝙗𝙚 𝙧𝙪𝙡𝙚𝙙 𝙤𝙪𝙩.”—WMO, State of the Climate 2024 npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit And here are the IPCC maps: npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Again this should not surprise anyone. We have know for decades what will happen when we cross 1.5ºC npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit *February 2025 npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit In fact in the ERA5 dataset, as of February 2024, we are set to pass 1.5°C permanently in about September of 2029 - that is 4 years from now. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Even staying below 2°C is in serious doubt. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit I love Guterres for his outspokenness on the #ClimateCrisis but he loses credibility when he says stuff like this (re the new WMO report) npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit “Altogether, this implies that rapid and deep annual emission reductions of about 9.0% are needed [annually] from now until 2030 to bridge the emissions gap for a below 1.5°C pathway.” npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit > The 18 lowest Arctic sea-ice extents on record were all in the past 18 years. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit NEW from the WMO: npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit > The rate of sea level rise has doubled since satellite measurements began. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit A staggering amount of money flows out of the EU to power its transport sector. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit 👏🏻 npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Sesto Fiorentino, Italy npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit The pandemic gave us a chance to remain on an emissions reduction trajectory. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Graphic credit: npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Q: When, if at all, was the last time you saw, read, or heard any news or information about climate change, from any source? npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Source: pulse.climate.copernicus.eu npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit In this dataset the first 14 days of March 2025 are +1 66°C above preindustrial. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit NEW from IRI: npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit And while on the subject of adaptation it is *extremely* important to understand that *all* adaptation has limits and best we understand, asap, what those limits are. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit #ClimateLiteracy 101: npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit @kirir.bsky.social I am so glad to have found you here! Added to my journalist list! npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit How much water can fall out the sky. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit In SA a conversation has started around the extreme events KZN. It's framed this way: The crisis of natural disasters in KwaZulu-Natal npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit This is how South African banks fare under a climate spotlight: npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit We are racing to a global economic crash as we continue to heat. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit “The [sea level] rise we saw in 2024 was higher than we expected. Every year is a little bit different, but what’s clear is that the ocean continues to rise, and 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚 𝙤𝙛 𝙧𝙞𝙨𝙚 𝙞𝙨 𝙜𝙚𝙩𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙛𝙖𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙧 𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙛𝙖𝙨𝙩𝙚𝙧.”—Josh Willis, NASA npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit NEW ~ Latest NOAA ENSO update. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Stranded asset risk is growing: npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit bsky.app/profile/davi... npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit IPCC: “3.3 - 3.6 billion people live in hotspots of high vulnerability to climate change.” npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit It's business as usual baby! npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit How can we be so certain about “sailing through 2°C?” npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit 3/3b npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Here is how it’s going in America, the country responsible for the majority of the 423 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit March 10 ENSO update from JMA: npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit If your intention is still to be alive 20 years from now (ie 2045) you *absolutely* need to understand as best you can what your physical environment will be like. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Graphic source: npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit “Authorities said more than 400mm (15.7 inches) of rain had fallen on Bahía Blanca on Friday. The city normally receives about 600-650mm of rain a year.” npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Comparing the hottest first week of March (1st -7th) ever recorded (ERA5 dataset) npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Graphic source: npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Most adaptation efforts take a considerable amount of time. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Latest: npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit Early warning systems save lives. npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit One of my favourite things on a Saturday morning is reading the latest edition of @thecontinent.org (delivered via WhatsApp) npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit The long tail impacts of extreme precipitation events are underestimated! npub1zc59pr7s6ga2wejkfxg00me7mexcqedxs5kkerkcw8tl6lm925xqzpspef Peter du Toit These events are now becoming so common!