BitcoinAlchemist
James Pierog

Co-Founder & CEO of Bitcoin Prediction Market

Public Key

npub1u8r69esh5r7jt29nj9ufmz4yvuwp6cwl5xqp4e3d46vl8wla5smsexjcky

NIP-57 Address

Profile Code

nprofile1qqswr3azuct6plf94zeez7ya32jxw8qav806rqq6uck6ax0nh076gdcpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dsz43rpa

Publishing to

relay.damus.io

nos.lol

Author Public Key

npub1u8r69esh5r7jt29nj9ufmz4yvuwp6cwl5xqp4e3d46vl8wla5smsexjcky

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Last Notes

2024-09-20 10:22:40

Lack of delete option on nostr could be dangerous…
Does nobody else find this a problem?
Own your data but never be able to remove it… if thats one of the tradeoffs that could be a security risk to the network

2024-09-17 06:37:54

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Rate cut => carry trade unwind?
Pls educate me

2024-09-17 03:33:09

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Haha thanks for the feedback as well. That’s our MVP that we built a few months back. We’re building a proper event derivatives platform with DLCs for bigger bets over longer timeframes for pools like Ocean, Demand, and other small PPLNS pools (1 difficulty epoch timeframe or longer). Lightning just wasn’t good enough to do betting/hedging for large amounts with so many payment pathfinding issues. Plus we didn’t like the custodial aspect of it too much, would much rather do non-custodial betting/hedging so there’s less risk.

2024-09-17 02:39:01

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Yeah but if we’re not careful hashrate is gonna end up the same way… Mining is already centralized around the central banker fiat money printer. Miners have already kissed the ring of fiat money and pools are mining for each other so it’s not like that much better in terms of centralization for PoW…
Literally all it takes is gun to the pool operator head and enforcement of compliant blocks by intel agencies is accomplished (re: feather fork and Carol House). I bet they’re just waiting for hashrate to consolidate a little more and then they’ll strike.
It’s not if but when. Eth has no chance ofc but Bitcoin is honestly not doing too much better… Bitcoiners patting themselves on the back before actually fighting the battle…

2024-09-16 15:11:19

Hedging hashrate enables miners and pools to reduce their variance while maintaining ownership over their hashrate and block templates.
Currently the only mechanism to reduce variance is hashrate aggregation into pools. Variance based pooling pressure incentivises mining pool centralization.
Hedging hashrate enables a sustainable decentralization of hashrate. The DLCs can be structured to incentivise pools to maintain lower global hashrate because a smaller probability pool yields a higher variance reduction.

2024-09-03 20:08:34

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Not sure if FOSS spectically but it sure looks like they’re building everything public. Can check it out here: https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/pplns-with-job-declaration/1099

2024-07-15 11:22:16

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This chart shows the variance reduction if the pool has 3% of global hashrate (the pool in the first chart has 5% of global hashrate).
The reduction in expected value reflects the value of the insurance that the miners purchase by hedging.
https://m.primal.net/JRXG.png

2024-07-15 11:21:37

Hedging hashrate reduces Bitcoin mining pool block reward variance.
This chart shows the expected earnings of a pool if they bet against themselves every block for one difficulty epoch.
By hedging hashrate every block, pools reduce 2 standard deviations of risk to less than 1.
https://m.primal.net/JRXD.png

2024-07-13 18:02:05

If a miner directs their hashrate to a pool with 5% hashrate, they only get paid 5% of the time (assuming proportional payouts).
If a miner hedges their hashrate (by betting against their own pool) then they get paid 95% of the time.
Hedging hashrate therefore reduces cash flow variance for miners in pools with proportional payouts.
Which is preferable?
Make money 5% of the time OR make money 95% of the time?
https://m.primal.net/JPVE.jpg

2024-07-12 19:14:18

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You first need to grasp the concept of an axiom before you apply it (incorrectly)

2024-07-12 18:14:57

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Sometimes seemingly simple or obvious things are not so obvious
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parallel_postulate
Parallel postulate seems obvious but non-euclidian geometry does not have such an axiom. Projective geometry also has no parallel postulate requirement.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axiom_of_choice
Axiom of choice in a finite world makes sense. With infinities you get the Banach-Tarski paradox
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banach%E2%80%93Tarski_paradox
When using mathematical precision to investigate ideas some faith is required that your axioms hold true, because alternative axiomatic systems exist that are also non contradictory.
Think of it like axioms as defining the boundaries of a mathematical reality, and you can have different axioms that create different realities.

2024-07-12 16:38:09

https://m.primal.net/JOGd.jpg

2024-07-12 16:34:35

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You know what you know
https://m.primal.net/IvbB.jpg

2024-07-12 13:02:31

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Axioms allow you to choose which statements are true in a formally defined system (like ZF set theory or euclidian geometry). Examples like the axiom of choice or parallel postulate require faith in their truth value for any of the statements that follow those axioms to be true.
Any system of reasoning requires some statements be true, and axioms are those bedrock statements that are taken as truths because we require no proof for them. We require no proof because we have faith they are true.

2024-07-12 05:53:01

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Axioms require faith and a proof requires axioms
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axiom

2024-06-30 14:31:37

Nature does not rush
Yet all is accomplished
Bitcoin does not rush
Yet all transactions get confirmed
🪷 ⚡️🔮
https://m.primal.net/JDMs.jpg

2024-06-30 13:53:06

Fees go up
Fees go down
Tide moves in
Tide moves out
People use Bitcoin
People don’t use Bitcoin
Things change
Yet things stay the same
https://m.primal.net/JDKu.jpg

2024-06-30 02:14:49

ecash for the people
by the people
but the people
are retarded
so they end up rugging each other
either intentionally or by accident
is this the future you want anon?
https://m.primal.net/JCiW.jpg

2024-06-29 15:27:54

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Lol good analysis
https://m.primal.net/JCFy.jpg

2024-06-29 15:24:28

Friendly reminder to anyone paying attention to the clown show
https://m.primal.net/JCFy.jpg

2024-06-29 14:37:50

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Sauce: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1772.html

2024-06-29 14:30:10

🧐🤔🧐🤔
https://m.primal.net/JCDU.png

2024-06-29 12:53:11

Here’s a little gem for the geoengieering enthusiasts out there
https://documents.theblackvault.com/documents/weather/CirrusFinal.pdf

2024-06-28 09:27:01

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Chemical warfare against us bugs hahaaha we are waking up

2024-06-26 23:53:46

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Hilarious

2024-06-26 19:18:25

CONSCIOUSNESS ENERGY GRID
https://m.primal.net/Iypv.png

2024-06-26 19:15:23

INGO SWANN
https://m.primal.net/Iypj.png

2024-06-26 19:14:03

INTENTION DIRECTS ATTENTION
https://m.primal.net/Iypg.png

2024-06-26 16:27:29

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Thank you for sharing this

2024-06-26 00:55:38

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Being a digital nomad is lonely and it can be tiring to travel all the time. It’s great for people who have an intense desire to travel and see the world. It’s not so great if you don’t like packing your bags every month or two.

2024-06-24 11:18:08

Czech people got a sense of humour
https://m.primal.net/IwDS.jpg

2024-06-24 03:58:21

Bet on which pool mines the next block on http://bitcoinprediction.market. Place bets by sending lightning payments. Receive winnings directly to your lightning address. Bet correctly to win, winners split the losers sats.

2024-06-24 01:27:30

https://m.primal.net/IvfU.png

2024-06-24 01:19:20

🪷 https://image.nostr.build/3c5f0569a091eb9e051e4f3e4f3cff561dca785f92999ccf7a8d074d42d9fa8c.jpg

2024-06-24 01:13:15

👁️ https://image.nostr.build/8db7e6db0d042f428207adab80e8795180c6a9352dfa1e8f89d5e39a7722687f.jpg

2024-06-23 23:44:51

https://m.primal.net/IvbB.jpg

2024-06-23 10:15:47

Bitcoin mining finance is broken. No other commodity industry has the unique challenges of Bitcoin: the winner take all contest. Due to this, only one pool can make money at a time. Why not everybody make money all the time? That's the Bitcoin mining landscape we want to see!

2024-06-23 09:01:23

Nostr is actually pretty fun I can’t believe I waited this long to get on haha

2024-06-23 08:56:43

Bitcoin Mining finance is broken, and we’re fixing it.
Mining is essentially a globally decentralized provably probabilistic computational race.
Miners compete to be the first to publish the next block, and whoever wins makes money. The mining contest is a winner-take-all, so the losers do not make money. All miners lose most of the time, so all miners do not make money most of the time.
Bitcoin Prediction Market has created betting markets around the mining contest, enabling people to bet on who wins and who loses.
Miners can hedge against the risk of losing the race. They can do this by betting against their own pool, or on a dominant pool like Foundry or Antpool.
Speculators can make money by predicting which pool will win, based on their hashrate.
Bitcoin Prediction Market revolutionizes mining finance by enabling miners to protect their cashflow and speculators to profit from the block discovery process.
In the past, miners could only make money by winning the contest, and speculators could only make money by betting on price. Now, everyone can profit from every single block.
Be part of this game-changing moment in Bitcoin's history! Join the revolution and learn more at https://bitcoinprediction.info/