NBS

No BullShit
Baron of the Trading Floor
Options (volatility) Trader in Chiraq
₿itcoin

Public Key

npub1ydmg5ndgr9px5ekcxnxaf9ktrcd2scnkx7cf9xrnaxxnea90aevsgf5tav

NIP-05 Address

[email protected]

Profile Code

nprofile1qqszxa52fk5pjsn2vmvrfnw5jm93ux4gvfmr0vyjnpe7nrfu7jh7ukgpz4mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujumt0wd68ytnsw43qk2907p

Publishing to

relay.mostr.pub

Author Public Key

npub1ydmg5ndgr9px5ekcxnxaf9ktrcd2scnkx7cf9xrnaxxnea90aevsgf5tav

Show more details

Last Notes

2024-01-13 23:13:53

- reply

@npub1a73…7y6q
At least clever, kind of funny.
A similar setup but different dialogue:
One guy says “Break free from fiat chains, buy the Bitcoin ETF and stick it to the banks!”
Other guy, “Woah, where can I buy it?”
Original guy, “Simple, you can buy it from BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, or many other banks and funds!”

2024-01-13 22:50:26

- reply

@npub1a73…7y6q
I’m notoriously uncreative, but I’ll give it a go.
There are 11 ETFs now, and these funds will be fighting one another for volume/market share. Maybe something about all of them fighting over a bitcoin logo or physical coin.
Or a meme about how all the banks now like bitcoin because they can generate fees off of it
Or something with bankers in suits with a bitcoin showing out of their pockets or something.
Highlighting the irony or hypocrisy i think would be funny

2024-01-13 22:39:35

- reply

@npub1a73…7y6q
While I also personally would enjoy this, that’s not really the point of No Agenda. They deconstruct news, not cover financial topics specifically.
I was happy to hear it discussed on DHUnplugged though!

2024-01-13 22:34:53

Apparently controversial take:
I like the show, I like NAS, and I think Adam and JCD are fine as well.
I don’t understand the drama, but maybe it’s because I don’t want to get involved in it or it hasn’t directly impact me.
Making a custom list and watching just my home timelines really helped me cut down on the noise on NAS, so I quite like it still.
Regardless, it’s going to be a good show tomorrow!
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/750/783/887/506/277/original/d21025788291e556.jpeg

2024-01-13 19:57:35

- reply

@npub1ly0…amzj
There isn't any data to support that Bitcoin rallies while the stock market crashes. While I understand the fundamental reason (flight to safety, like gold or Yen), BTC actually crashed with the market in 2020 and fell with the market in 2022. So it hasn't performed like a flight to safety (I was also wrong about this in 2022).
My bearish case of $35k BTC is mostly a demand/supply thing I'd expect only in the next 3 - 6 months at worst if economic data starts turning markets lower.

2024-01-13 18:45:26

- reply

@npub1ly0…amzj
It's just very tough to put on a, what I call 'naked', position into a big event. By naked I just mean you hold one position: short one asset into a 50:50 event.
That's why I wanted some hedge against just being plain short, and ETH looked very cheap relative. So worst case was they both rallied, and my short BTC didn't hurt as much, and best case was basically what happened: BTC lower, ETH higher.
Pairs trading correlated assets is a good way to take a position into a 50:50 event.

2024-01-13 18:43:43

- reply

@npub1ly0…amzj
Basically this: https://noagendasocial.com/@NBS/111749864767586612
That's the rough road map I'm operating on for 2024 for the bearish case. I'm not actively positioned permanently short to ride it down to $35k since I just hold BTC in a wallet, but any swing trading I do (outside of momentum rallies) will probably be from the short side for a few months.
Still think we could see rips up to $50k this year though, especially if economic data and markets continue to improve (regardless of reality).

2024-01-13 18:40:14

- reply

@npub155r…t04m
Potentially. Only reason I think we don't break $30k this year is because of the 2023 price action
Throughout 2023 the highs visited twice (pre-ETF discussion) were in the $30k - $31k area. After the ETF discussions gained some momentum in October, the market spiked through those 2023 highs
I think we will have a hard time breaking those 2023 highs, or even the $35k area (post-ETF discussion pop) if speculators think that the ETFs are long-term bullish
Will be an interesting year
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/749/852/739/686/960/original/551b66265c552436.png

2024-01-13 18:33:00

- reply

Kudos to one of the quant guys at work for getting me into this trade.
I wanted a way to play the BTC event, but I didn't want too much short exposure to the event itself.
We decided to long ETH vs BTC, aka long the ETH/BTC pair. ETH tends to correlate well with BTC, so it's a decent hedge, and ETH had just not moved all that much like BTC had. So ETH was cheap relative to BTC.
The ETH/BTC chart shows exactly that. Put on the trade last Sunday, ate shit for a couple of days, now it's up ~18%.
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/749/836/245/677/817/original/7d147bc78dbcc2cf.png

2024-01-13 18:24:06

- reply

Ye ole' buy the rumor, sell the news has come to fruition.
BTC reverted the entire rally (and then some) from Jan 7th/8th, which was just days ahead of the expected ETF approval.
On a longer time frame, BTC is now closer to the mid-December lows when the ETF was simply being discussed.
I still think over the next few weeks/month or two we could see BTC back down to $35k or so.
I took off half of my long ETH/short BTC pairs trade. Just a short-term trade, still long BTC in cold storage.
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/749/786/190/805/100/original/3e9beeabc18b7453.png
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/749/796/802/171/725/original/ac67954cfd758d71.png

2024-01-12 02:43:20

- reply

@npub1npw…w2rm
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/740/439/642/726/055/original/3cb018ad08401e47.webp

2024-01-12 02:12:36

- reply

@npub1mpz…4nus
Funny, I'm just a few blocks from there. Great neighborhood.
I'd give up Binny's in a heartbeat to move down south! All of my family is in NC now. Someday soon...

2024-01-12 01:22:47

- reply

@npub1mpz…4nus
Absolutely, I go to Binny’s South Loop. Best Binny’s there is and it’s pretty close to me in West Loop. Way better deals than grocery stores, and the selection is superb.
I love Billions, great show! There’s a lot of realistic aspects to it, and that’s hard to say about most finance shows or movies. No comment on the bonuses 😂

2024-01-12 00:57:11

Today I had my annual review at work. This meeting serves to give me feedback about how the year went, but most importantly I find out my % share of the firm’s PnL I will get this year as my bonus.
Thankfully it went well and I’m getting what I expected. Every year I splurge on a bottle of Lagavulin 16 to celebrate, but this year something strange happened…
I bought some beer and another cheap bottle for a party this weekend, and my bill came to $133.33… The magic number!
Time to donate!
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/740/008/928/813/105/original/64ed4420551fc3de.jpeg
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/740/009/357/629/223/original/83b99ce4cfdf23fc.jpeg

2024-01-11 14:53:31

CPI data released this morning, in line with expectations. CPI growth year-over-year seems to be leveling off at a low now, which is unsettling for the soft landing crowd.
Markets pretty unchanged after the data, but this could potentially make the Fed nervous about future aggressive cuts given inflation growth seems to be bottoming.
Caveat to all of this is the fact that this data is pretty manufactured and not reflective of reality, but the market trades off of it so it’s important to watch.
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/737/646/553/702/180/original/3f7d7b2312ee8590.png

2024-01-11 02:37:31

The SEC, as expected after yesterday’s “hack”, approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs today which could begin trading as early as tomorrow.
The spot ETFs are a bigger deal for Bitcoin believers than the futures ETF or Grayscale’s BTC Trust. This is because the funds must hold the actual underlying, which equates to real demand for the asset.
Bitcoin has rallied significantly these past several weeks in anticipation (buy the rumor, sell the news), but longer term this is still bullish for bitcoin.
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/734/754/244/682/789/original/ab0dbf5e400636cf.jpeg

2024-01-10 02:50:12

Tomorrow the SEC will announce its decision for the proposed dozen or so spot BTC ETFs after accidentally tweeting their approval earlier today
I say accidentally because I'm not buying the "SEC account was hacked" story. Perhaps it was, I don't know. Either way it caused quite a stir in the market
Initially BTC ripped, then dipped, then the news was discovered to be fake, and it dipped a bit more
Don't get me wrong, I'm long BTC long term, but the trader in me would sell this news tomorrow
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/729/137/560/560/226/original/dc6827f3f9a05028.png

2024-01-08 17:42:30

Ain’t it the truth
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/721/326/051/009/032/original/f053bee20850316c.jpeg

2024-01-06 21:46:34

Keep seeing this headline floating around as if it's a big deal:
"BRICS: Morgan Stanley Downgrades The U.S. Dollar"
Morgan Stanley is downgrading the dollar because the Fed will soon lower rates. Currencies are assets which yield a return based on their respective central bank. When US rates are high, dollar yield is high, therefore it's more attractive to hold. When rates go back down, dollars become less attractive.
It's not based on BRICS whatsoever.
https://watcher.guru/news/brics-morgan-stanley-downgrades-the-u-s-dollar

2024-01-06 21:18:34

Happy January 6th Day to all who celebrate!
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/710/851/074/180/610/original/2c9369e18c7bb068.jpeg

2024-01-04 19:08:23

- reply

@npub1npw…w2rm
#ITM and Happy Show Day to you, and such
Here’s to a good show today, won’t be in the troll room unfortunately but I’ll be there Sunday

2024-01-04 19:07:05

Happy Show Day! And such
Relaxing day at work, been doing a lot of planning for the year ahead. Haven’t seen any apparent, aptly placed 33s recently but I do need to send in another donation soon…
2024 will be a fun year though, I predict many swollen amygdalas and political bullshit lies ahead. All of which I will ignore
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/699/006/397/961/299/original/825a295159f25cc9.jpeg

2024-01-04 03:21:01

I was pretty out of touch on NAS these past few months, what happened to @GummyNerds? Does he still frequent the troll room?
Always liked that guy, sad to see him gone

2024-01-04 03:06:27

And I thought the sequels 7, 8, and 9 were bad… can’t wait to see what they have in store next!
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/695/232/050/988/107/original/a95b62ef44828a32.png

2024-01-03 03:15:10

Me sitting down to trade this morning after the year end break
Happy New Year, here's to 2024
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/689/603/194/236/549/original/e3cb53a03e34d7b2.mp4

2024-01-01 18:52:10

Fighting the urge to upgrade my graphics card
Currently using a 3070 on a Linux setup, and I'm eyeing a 7800 XT given some prices I see at MicroCenter. Switching to an AMD card would be nice given Linux, and it's a good upgrade...
I could also sell my current card for at least half the cost of the new card...
Send help!

2023-12-31 23:33:03

- reply

@npub1smh…hvr3 @npub1a73…7y6q
Mostly agree with what Cosmic said, especially the US part. Definitely check with Amex which benefits aren’t US only. And I wouldn’t upgrade, try to apply for a new card to get the sign-on bonus for sure.
I will say though that I rarely travel, only went on 4 major trips this year. 1 - 2 trips per year will pay for the hotel, flight, and Uber credits you get. For me it made sense, but the Gold is just as good for most people.

2023-12-31 20:33:05

- reply

If you can stomach the upfront $695 annual fee, the Amex platinum rewards more than pay for itself. After today’s flight, I will have received $1.2k in credits on my 2023 statements (so I’ve made $505). This isn’t counting the points I’ve received for all of my spending.
2022 I was able to get $1.1k in statement credits. So you can actually make money with the card. Again, not even counting the points received.

2023-12-31 19:02:32

Two and a half hour layover in Charlotte, but it was somewhat intentional.
Charlotte has a Centurion Amex lounge, and it's a very good one. Free cooked fancy lunch, free beers, free coffee, faster wifi, relaxing comfy spot to myself. Plus the private bathroom are an added bonus.
American Express is worth it even if you travel just a few times a year (with the added other bonuses for the usual spending).

2023-12-31 00:09:10

Jamie Dimon (JP Morgan CEO):
Jan. 23, 2014: Bitcoin is a terrible store of value
Nov. 5, 2015: Bitcoin will not survive
Jan. 20, 2016: Bitcoin is going nowhere
Oct. 30, 2018: I don't really give a shit about Bitcoin
Sept. 21, 2022: I am a major skeptic on crypto tokens like Bitcoin
Dec. 6, 2023: I have always been deeply opposed to crypto, Bitcoin, etc. - if I were the government I'd close it down
Dec. 29, 2023: BlackRock name authorized participants including JP Morgan for Bitcoin ETF

2023-12-30 17:51:54

While I beat the S&P return this year, I did not beat the Nasdaq.
The Nasdaq soared a whopping 53.8% in 2023, which makes sense given 2022 was it's worst year in over a decade.
Looking back, I should have allocated more to tech names (I only hold Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA, and Intel) especially near the end of 2022. I instead held my oil positions a bit longer than I should.
Either way, it was a good year to be invested aggressively into equities.
Let's hope 2024 is just as good!
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/670/400/638/940/345/original/8ba88bed36ba4702.png

2023-12-23 13:47:01

- reply

@npub1smh…hvr3
Definitely worth it. The digital subscription $240 annual credit helps eat into the fee as well. Combined with the hotel and airline credits and the card has nearly already paid for itself.
Plus the customer service is suburb, and airport lounge access (through the card or free Priority Pass) is a nice bonus.

2023-12-20 04:54:10

- reply

@npub1smh…hvr3 @npub1vdg…fj9c
Added bonus for the Amex Plat if you bank with Charles Schwab: you can convert points into $ which go to your brokerage account automatically. Plus an additional annual credit based on your Schwab assets.
I think they have deals with many other banks/brokerages as well.

2023-12-14 23:54:06

- reply

@npub1xje…85rf
I used to love trading the widow-maker spread in my personal account.
Like the article says it’s basically a futures spread, where you trade the March April futures in nat gas versus one another. This spread typically trades at a premium, but wildly fluctuates due to the unpredictability sometimes in weather during the winter.
I wouldn’t touch this spread unless you really have an appetite for risk and understand these weather patterns, as it can move 100% in a day easily

2023-12-14 23:06:44

- reply

@npub1xje…85rf
I used to love trading the windowmaker spread in my personal account.
Like the article says it’s basically a futures spread, where you trade the March April futures in nat gas versus one another. This spread typically trades at a premium, but wildly fluctuates due to the unpredictability sometimes in weather during the winter.
I wouldn’t touch this spread unless you really have an appetite for risk and understand these weather patterns, as it can move 100% in a day easily

2023-12-13 22:58:25

When I get home later I plan on writing a more nuanced, informative post one what happened today after the FOMC meeting.
For now though, here’s a meme to summarize
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/575/348/128/847/121/original/03787ff69b2a3a5b.jpeg

2023-12-13 02:47:03

Rest in Peace Argentinian Peso
Graphed is the value of 1 Argentinian Peso vs the dollar, aka how many pesos it takes to buy $1. A populist like Milei winning an election is no surprise when your currency debases +3x in 2 years. The guy ran on ousting the central bank, who is responsible for controlling inflation.
Wild to see this level of hyperinflation. Only going to get worse but rightly so. As a side note, Milei also told BRICS to effectively go fuck themselves, in favor of the US Dollar…
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/570/579/201/277/650/original/e7cb5e560f4fdd2f.jpeg

2023-12-09 11:59:48

Booked the 6am flight to New York Shitty for a work event later today. Coworkers thought I was crazy, but I hate NYC and prefer the calm early morning airport.
The event is a party we are hosting, so it should be fun and I shouldn’t be complaining, but I don’t much like NYC so I’m glad it’s a quick turnaround.
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/550/108/568/235/425/original/daccc29a47654897.jpeg

2023-12-07 23:59:15

- reply

@npub14j7…w660
Fortunately I pay the lowest rate of most institutional traders according to my friends at other firms. Net up money on the year, just the cost of doing business

2023-12-07 23:01:35

That time of year again where brokers start sending me wine. One big perk of the job, but it’s also probably a sign that I’m paying them too much commission.
Same bottle as last year from this guy, but JCD said it’s a pretty good drinking wine so I’ll take it.
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/541/374/789/469/371/original/05fbf93338963358.jpeg

2023-12-06 04:49:10

Classic John “Rambo” Moulton trading clip
Simplistic, vague, and generic, but great advice. Both professionally at work and with my portfolio, I find myself often clinging onto the sentiment of a given market. Sure I get it wrong sometimes, but there's no reason to fight the market in most environments
I learned this lesson from trading in the pit, which makes sense given Moulton is a former pit trader. Learning to feel the sentiment in that environment was a good lesson for me early on
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/531/427/287/150/973/original/31504c2d4561af6a.mp4

2023-12-06 04:26:19

- reply

@npub1h0k…7690 @npub1a73…7y6q
Hi
Frankly I've never heard of Kaspa, and I would have to understand it better before providing an informed opinion.
I have Bitcoin maximalist tenancies, but I do see the use case for other types of 'shitcoins' (like Monero) on a small scale. I just don't know anything about Kaspa to determine its standing against lightning. But I do know that lightning has its problems as well (as a node operator myself).

2023-12-06 03:57:32

- reply

@npub1smh…hvr3 @npub1acd…tujv
Just build up my points, and I'll try to dispute the charges afterward, then we split the points on a flashy vacation.
The Great Heist

2023-12-05 00:04:48

- reply

@npub14j7…w660
You’re right though, he’s all@of the above and then some

2023-12-04 22:19:40

Long term I’m a gold bull, but I also think Peter Schiff is a total moron.
This is hilarious. Peter tweets about how great gold is at the absolute top last night, gold then reverses the move completely and then some. Fuck that guy.
I still love gold, of course, just funny to see him get faced.
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/524/233/965/908/968/original/91b5afbbe57797d6.jpeg

2023-12-04 02:22:42

- reply

@npub1h6z…mvn7
The move in Gold on Friday was definitely dollar driven, but mainly drive by real rates moving lower as well.
Tonight's move, I have no idea. Bitcoin had quite a move, so maybe more dollar related now? Unsure really.

2023-12-04 02:16:27

Bitcoin over $40k, Gold over $2100. What a way to start the week.
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/519/498/169/665/893/original/f5942bbd887bdbce.png

2023-12-03 20:28:37

I'm officially announcing my shift in specialty toward Green Bond trading! For the environment!
(Sarcasm)
#noagenda

2023-12-02 02:31:28

Happy Friday folks
Excited to fuck off and relax this weekend, work drove me crazy again this week
Going over to visit some friends in Michigan tomorrow morning and get some much needed outdoor time. Will be catching up on Thursday’s show on the drive over
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/508/236/235/950/827/original/7b9c86057ffb0e6e.mp4

2023-12-01 05:13:15

- reply

@npub1jd8…3892 @npub1j0a…f5gh
Yeah a bit hood, but on a Saturday I'm sure it's fine

2023-12-01 01:47:16

Lol.
And the note isn’t wrong. Inflation is by definition positive and is by nature cumulative. Decreasing prices is called deflation and it’s actually quite bad for an economy.
What a moron (as if he actually tweeted this though).
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/502/393/799/752/940/original/7ce15d6c328349c6.jpeg

2023-11-30 02:18:35

It’s been well over a year since I traded in the pit consistently, but my old jacket brings back tons of memories from back then.
I didn’t realize how historic it was for markets at the time, but I wore this thing while trading the COVID crash in Feb - March 2020. Some of the most exciting and terrifying trading happened when I was wearing this jacket back then. The pit has slowed down considerably since then, and I feel fortunate to have been able to experience it then.
I miss those days.
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/496/858/671/731/460/original/f4e4af43a953860c.jpeg

2023-11-30 00:42:07

Morgan Stanley (holding billions of Twitter LBO debt) when they hear Elon Musk telling advertisers to go fuck themselves live on CNBC
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/496/483/455/709/988/original/4b41f165f2c0d7ba.jpeg

2023-11-29 02:57:56

- reply

@npub1a73…7y6q
Will do. In my experience with using AI tools, it’s more complimentary to production than a standalone business. But that’s just my bias (I am a user of AI tools as aids to my work), and I’m no entrepreneur.
Plenty of good AI tools and companies out there though, so I’m sure it can be a good move

2023-11-29 02:15:58

- reply

@npub1a73…7y6q
I’m not sure on the specific cost given we have an enterprise license for some 300 people, but it’s been well worth it overall. This is just one example, but we have gained millions of $ in value out of it. Not an exaggeration, we actively track an estimate for gained trading revenue and reduced costs as a result of various GPT projects.

2023-11-29 01:56:27

ChatGPT isn’t the AI to take over the world or reinvent the wheel.
However, there is certainly value in its simplistic abilities. Today I presented a tool I built with GPT4 Enterprise at work which uses the API to transform data (human-written string data) into a computer-readable format to our CEO. Sounds simple, because it is, but after years of developers’ efforts at work we were previously unable to accomplish this.
This tool took me about a week to build.
Continued...

2023-11-25 15:17:10

At the dealer for some warranty work. They have some sweet older models I haven’t seen here before, particularly like that black older one
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/471/607/101/941/896/original/e4a1093316258f3f.jpeg
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/471/607/987/094/389/original/f1b2569897af4f2e.jpeg
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/471/609/896/250/359/original/5b5252d499e2ee6d.jpeg
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/471/612/106/184/634/original/18844dbb4d1b44db.jpeg

2023-11-24 18:34:40

Thanksgiving this year
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/466/727/091/946/883/original/15840ec96a839c19.jpeg

2023-11-22 15:15:59

- reply

@npub1a73…7y6q
I would imagine most people withdrawing bitcoin from binance would simply move to another exchange wallet or a wallet they control. This wouldn’t necessarily put downward pressure on bitcoin giving they’re not selling it.
I would imagine binance’s shitcoin BNB is in more trouble from this than Bitcoin.

2023-11-22 00:58:50

Ever since the Israel-Hamas shit started, I’ve been pretty disconnected and fed up with media.
Don’t get me wrong: I don’t watch news whatsoever. But even still, I often encounter rage-bait or click-bait news articles, inflammatory social media posts, or various clips about ‘news’ that is just political drivel. Particularly on No Agenda social there past few weeks unfortunately.
I still listen to the show, one of my primary sources of info, but NAS has been exhausting recently.

2023-11-20 04:12:16

Funny how many are shocked by Milei winning the presidential election in Argentina. Truth be told I know nothing about the guy other than the memes and clips I’ve seen in recent months, but it doesn’t take a genius to see why their people wanted change.
Just looking at the value of the Argentinian peso illustrates why the people would vote for someone pushing radical change. Hyperinflation does that to a population I guess.
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/440/679/236/142/692/original/b3a3ecdd049c9c5c.png

2023-11-17 14:37:53

Happy Friday everyone
I had a busy weekend last weekend, so I’m looking forward to relaxing and doing nothing. Going to play video games and catch up on some sleep and shitcoin trading
Expiration Friday for the options traders out there. Historically 3rd Friday’s of the month were a big deal, but this isn’t really the case anymore with daily expirations. Still though, it’s always a fun day to trade
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/426/156/035/436/219/original/57ec7945716138d1.mp4

2023-11-12 05:31:54

- reply

@npub163k…hljx @npub1ul8…kl35
The primary dealers linked by Mark are indeed required to show a bid for Treasuries in these auctions. Details can be found here: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bill-auction.asp , but long story short: it’s a Dutch auction wherein you bid based on your opinion of a fair rate and the Treasury allots fills according to how competitive your bid was. So it’s a game of game theory, as well as appraising fair value
While this auction a huge miss, it just means dealers bid really low
Continued

2023-11-10 05:20:01

One of my favorite parts of going to a Bears game:
I park in my office building about a mile north of the stadium. After the game, the main street nearest the stadium is filled with taxi and private cars. They all mark up prices like crazy obviously.
So I start walking, and tell one taxi guy soliciting that I’ll pay $5. He says $40. So I go to the next guy and say $10. He says $30, and I go to the next guy. Ended up getting $15. Ubers are $80 - $120
I love open outcry auction marketplaces

2023-11-10 02:16:25

Not a football guy, but I’m at the game for a broker outing. Love sports for the social environment though, should be a fun night
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/383/607/542/543/670/original/28dabce49b0a7efd.jpeg

2023-11-09 00:50:58

- reply

@npub1j0a…f5gh
I think the only thing to cause a crude pullback at this point is a full on recession.
I’m biased because I’m long oil companies, mostly Exxon, but even the oil traders (both fund guys and dealers) are usually bullish oil over the next few months outlook. Lots of demand and conflict in the Middle East always poses a threat to supply.

2023-11-08 02:15:22

Want to piss off an EV car owner? Show them any for sale listing for their car and laugh.
Even Teslas, which I believe hold their value slightly better than most EV brands, are down 45% from just a couple of years ago.

2023-11-07 17:03:56

- reply

@npub1me3…765c
Good luck and TYFYC!

2023-11-07 01:34:15

Famous Warren Buffett quote to live by when investing
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/366/454/519/521/485/original/d024bea0179d0197.jpeg

2023-11-05 20:27:19

"Genocidin' Biden"
Pretty good one from some woke protester clip from #noagenda
Listening LIVE today, where are you??

2023-11-04 17:01:17

Buddy of mine who is a car dealer was telling me about how the used car market, for certain cars, is falling off a cliff.
Told me some Jeep Wagoneer owners were selling their $120k cars at a $30k loss just a year into ownership.
Didn't believe him so I wanted to look myself.
Here's a no options 2023 Grand Wagoneer Series III: MSRP $112k
Here's a 2022 Grand Wagoneer Series III listed used, 24k miles: $80k. And another with 36k miles listed at $73k.
Dealer friend still says there's room to go
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/353/112/545/673/416/original/ed95e0437de5671d.png
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/353/112/854/789/208/original/4ac9af2fec394fc4.png
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/353/113/854/859/706/original/eea0f07414563729.png

2023-11-04 16:48:16

- reply

@npub1nl9…axrx
It's fairly wild to see within my own company as well.
Used to be a smaller trading firm, global firm but still office was small, 200 - 250 people. 70% traders. Now, office has grown to 500 people or so, maybe 30 - 40% traders. Rest are HR nonsense or similar positions which can barely be associated with generating revenue.
Those nonsense positions hire more nonsense positions until, as you said, they are deeply interwoven within the company and therefore have control.

2023-11-04 16:40:55

- reply

@npub1nl9…axrx
Unsurprisingly the first to get the ax when layoffs start. Pretty wild she's lasted this long, but I guess legal is fairly resilient.

2023-11-04 16:36:39

This is someone's job as a Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Specialist:
1) Visits NYC office
2) Check emails, write notes, meeting with supervisor
3) Lunch
4) Orientation for new-hires about diversity (she is "exhausted" at this point)
5) Wine tasting work event for all women attorneys
Into economic slowdowns banks/financials are usually first to trim, and I've already seen that happen. I've heard other industries cutting back, but we are no where close to max pain in terms of the labor market
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/353/006/346/645/022/original/c935726f8a93fe25.mp4

2023-11-02 20:46:10

- reply

@npub1t3p…xdwy
There is a sign in the waiting area that says masks must be worn, but it seems like it’s from 2020 given the updated info I was told. So I’m just not wearing one and will see what happens. Been in and out for an hour, so far no one said anything

2023-11-02 20:24:41

At the doctor for my annual checkup, all emails and communications say that “Masks are optional.”
Literally everyone I’ve encountered is wearing a mask… lol
This will never go away

2023-11-01 00:46:21

- reply

@npub1gz0…530e
Very un-American of him if he has not seen it, such a classic

2023-10-31 22:18:53

Ladies and Gentlemen,
I give you the President of the United States!
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/331/712/707/996/741/original/301957a9f62d1c1c.png

2023-10-31 15:24:37

15 years ago today, happy Bitcoin whitepaper day!
Can be read here: https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
Good read, highly recommend
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/330/077/545/181/773/original/15cae20c6987bc8b.jpeg

2023-10-29 00:37:55

Stock:bond correlations flip positive, last seen positive in the latter half of 2022.
This translates to the classic 60/40 portfolio becoming far less risk-averse. This portfolio is 60% stock 40% bonds. Not saying it's a good portfolio because it's not, but it's a popular strategy for long-term investors.
When correlations flip positive, this portfolio is effectively just leveraged long.
Probably a good idea to diversify a bit, although I am quite long bonds now myself.
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/315/014/852/140/635/original/fb102fe6b4e6da56.jpeg

2023-10-26 07:00:33

Harry Potter series is kind of based
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/299/553/989/362/126/original/aa88d104ce0670ea.jpeg

2023-10-13 01:08:02

Love seeing the mental gymnastics many on the left are going through with their Hamas support. Not saying I support Israel, I don’t give a shit, but watching the left support terrorists who hate them is pretty funny
And I thought 2021 was peak clown world!

2023-10-10 03:41:57

- reply

@npub163k…hljx
>It's only "problematic" when you start CAUSING those events to support your* investments.
Totally agree, which unfortunately was all too common in the emerging market credit space for a long time (probably still is)

2023-10-10 03:36:00

- reply

@npub163k…hljx
Don't worry, I'm also very anti-war, but it's a fact that oil pops when unrest happens. So it's a byproduct of the long-oil thesis.
My oil exposure is all via US crude producers/refiners, so they just follow (on a lower beta, mind you) the price of oil often.

2023-10-10 03:29:06

Saudi Arabia (and me still long oil) watching the turmoil in the middle east (again)
Not rooting for war here or anything, I have been long oil for years for other reasons, but these middle east war-type events are common enough to be another reason to be long oil
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/208/125/785/425/831/original/b23380989a12b858.jpg

2023-10-10 02:58:23

Just now catching up on the 1st hour of the show from yesterday.
Oil prices didn't move on the invasion because markets weren't open... On the Sunday night futures open, oil opened up some 3%. Closed up some 3.5% at the close today.
So energy prices certainly moved off of the Israeli-Hamas conflict news, but the markets were closed when it happened.
What will be interesting now will be to see if the Suez canal is disrupted at all, as millions of barrels of oil are shipped through there daily.

2023-10-07 02:19:08

Oldie but a goodie
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/190/864/193/424/784/original/12f7d1d8b7f57eec.mp4

2023-10-01 20:08:11

ITM and Happy Show Day
Back in the Trollroom this Sunday after missing a couple of weeks
Get in here, gitmo nation!
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/161/094/187/251/395/original/1ac650d10abeb8dc.jpeg

2023-09-29 14:52:11

So the company had onsite flu shots yesterday, and it seems like many signed up to take it.
So far this morning I’ve run into 4 people who look like shit and say they aren’t feeling well, and 3 other people have called in sick and aren’t coming in.
Although it is Friday, so it could be that some are faking sick, but it’s rare that people call in sick given we can’t make money at home.
Either way… I thought the flu shot prevented the flu!

2023-09-20 03:01:09

The 10yr Treasury is the bellwether for the US economy and, in recent times, bond market sentiment. Today the 10yr yield reached its highest level since 2007.
Rates rising = bond prices falling
Equities steadily trend lower but no real panic is in the market. While I don’t expect a crash (nor should you attempt to bet on one) the higher the 10yr goes, the more unease equity investors feel
Best play for this market? Lock in yields at whatever duration you feel comfortable with
Not advice
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/094/757/112/558/984/original/06d8642efefd11de.png

2023-09-17 17:54:03

- reply

@npub1sls…yr9t
ITM and happy show day
Looks like a nice brew

2023-09-16 18:19:58

- reply

@npub1ptm…6rn8 @npub17sa…emr5
Given this is the retirement account, I'm thinking more along the 10+ yr horizon.
When I say Asia I mainly mean South Korea, Indonesia, India, and Japan. Currently own ETF exposure to these specifically, but I will likely shift it to a more broad ETF as INDA and EWJ have been solid performers in the past year.

2023-09-16 17:20:05

- reply

@npub17sa…emr5
I'd imagine that's a good allocation. I've been pretty poorly allocated abroad, ~5% currently, but I'm going to adjust to about 10% - 15% or so. Mostly Asia though, I think they're the most worthwhile economies outside of the US.

2023-09-16 16:30:31

Feels good to be invested in the US
But I also unironically just discussed allocating some of the portfolio into international equities with my advisor. Very small allocation with a focus on Asia-Pacific countries (not EU).
Good weekend to do some portfolio planning with some coffee while catching up on the show
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/075/302/914/542/025/original/312ff7f6048ecfea.png

2023-09-14 02:09:38

Me waking up at 3am to make sure my trading positions haven’t been completely liquidated by the exchange
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/060/593/557/785/635/original/9904a68ef36d756f.jpeg

2023-09-10 19:42:30

https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/111/042/084/587/280/087/original/047a88a402bee786.jpeg

2023-08-31 02:14:12

- reply

And I've heard CalyxOS is no longer good either due to significantly delayed security updates and an overall lack of security enhancements on their base OS. I used CalyxOS for about 9 months and liked it, but often times updates were days/weeks delayed... including critical security updates at the Android level.
No bueno

2023-08-31 02:12:53

Catching up on the No Agenda episode from Sunday, and I can't agree more regarding GrapheneOS.
I moved off of their platform due to the lead developer being a total pussy about being "harassed". Countless people in the privacy community have said similar about this guy Daniel McKay, and I'd advise anyone considering GrapheneOS to stay away.
Sucks that a good project is led by such morons, but such is life.
Link to my original post about moving away from GrapheneOS
https://noagendasocial.com/@NBS/110441347210581598

2023-08-30 20:29:53

It really do be like that
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/110/979/985/742/235/997/original/2cb74af1e23d83c2.jpeg

2023-08-27 04:23:45

Travel pro tip:
The TV remote controller in hotel rooms is likely the dirtiest object since it’s never cleaned. Use the ice bucket plastic bag to touch/operate the TV remote without touching it
In a hotel for the night after visiting some family back in my home town, reminded me of this tip I learned years ago
https://static.noagendasocial.com/media_attachments/files/110/959/199/697/254/315/original/1b28f6e232ec14cb.jpeg