Henrik Ekenberg / Henrik Ekenberg is on Nostr

Trader // Small cap investor Sweden

Last Notes

2025-10-25 06:00:12 GMT

The week ending October 25, 2025, captured a market completely disconnected from economic fundamentals.
The S&P 500 closed at a record high of 6,791.69 on Thursday, rallying 0.79% despite a backdrop of escalating chaos across multiple fronts.
This euphoria persisted even as consumer sentiment crashed to 53.6—the lowest reading in five months and down 24% year-over-year.
The University of Michigan's final October reading revealed collapsing consumer expectations at 50.3, down 32% from a year ago, with inflation and high prices dominating concerns. Yet markets ignored the warning.
The Federal Reserve prepares to cut rates Tuesday and Wednesday, October 28-29, despite inflation running at 3.1%—well above the 2% target—and without access to current economic data due to the government shutdown now in its fourth week.
Policymakers will make monetary policy decisions using six-week-old September data while flying blind through October's actual conditions.
China's Fourth Plenum concluded with vague promises of "technological self-sufficiency" but zero concrete GDP targets, spending commitments, or quantified stimulus—leaving markets to rally on hope rather than policy substance.
Trump abruptly terminated all trade negotiations with Canada over a television commercial, creating fresh uncertainty for the $2.6 trillion bilateral trade relationship.
Through it all, stocks climbed. The Dow notched its 12th record close of 2025. Tech stocks powered gains even after Netflix missed earnings and Tesla's margins collapsed to multi-year lows. Asian markets rallied Friday on optimism about the upcoming Trump-Xi APEC meeting, choosing hope over observable reality.
The gap between market euphoria and economic deterioration has never been wider. Consumer confidence at five-month lows. Inflation accelerating.
Trade relationships fracturing. Government dysfunctional. Corporate margins compressing. Yet equities hit all-time highs.
Something gives eventually—either economic data miraculously improves to justify these valuations, or markets correct violently to reflect reality. Given falling consumer sentiment, persistent inflation above target, and escalating policy chaos, the latter outcome appears far more likely.
The only remaining question is timing.
#Market

2025-10-24 10:43:33 GMT

What hasn't been sufficiently covered is how Trump's erratic communication style creates operational paralysis for multinational corporations and supply chain managers who need 18-24 month planning horizons to make capital allocation decisions.
Trump's late-night Truth Social post terminating all trade talks with Canada was riddled with typos and fragmented sentences—"TRADE NEGATIONS WITHADA AREEBYATED" and "TFFS VERY IMPORTANT THE NATIONAL AND EOMY"—suggesting it was an impulsive reaction rather than coordinated policy.
The trigger? An Ontario government TV ad featuring a 1987 Ronald Reagan radio address warning that "high tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation" and "millions of people lose their jobs".
This pattern is familiar. Trump threatened 35% universal tariffs on Canada in February, then exempted 85% of Canada-U.S. trade days later when Prime Minister Mark Carney negotiated.
He's threatened to dissolve Great Lakes water-sharing agreements, remove Canada from Five Eyes intelligence sharing, and annex Canada as the 51st state—then walked back or never followed through.
Canadian officials initially treated the annexation threats as jokes before realizing Trump might be serious about destabilizing the relationship.
But Carney's office has learned to wait out the volatile threats, expecting Trump to quietly restart talks within days.
For businesses, this creates an impossible environment. Companies making decisions about cross-border manufacturing, inventory positioning, supplier contracts, and capital investments need stable trade rules.
When the president can terminate negotiations via typo-filled social media posts at 11 PM over a $75,000 TV ad, rational planning becomes impossible.
More than C$3.6 billion in Canadian goods cross the border daily. Auto manufacturers, steel producers, lumber suppliers, and tech companies operate integrated North American supply chains built around the USMCA trade agreement that Trump himself negotiated.
Now he's threatening to blow it up over an advertisement.
The erratic pattern doesn't just create uncertainty—it destroys institutional credibility.
If trade policy can reverse within hours based on emotional reactions to TV ads, long-term commitments become unhedgeable risks. Companies can't price that volatility into contracts or feasibility studies.
Canada might simply ignore this latest outburst and wait for Trump to restart talks quietly next week, as he's done before.
But each cycle of threat-backdown-restart erodes the foundation for the $2.6 trillion bilateral trade relationship. Businesses need predictability. Trump's communication style makes that structurally impossible.
#Market #Trump #Canada

2025-10-24 10:10:09 GMT

The Tide, the Wave, and the Life Raft: Understanding Market Cycles to Survive and Thrive
https://youtu.be/80Dzz8M0NJk
#Trendfollowing #trading

2025-10-19 09:33:08 GMT

Trading success isn't about winning every trade—it's about making the right decisions over and over again, no matter the result.

2025-10-19 08:24:58 GMT

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GM !
How is life?

2025-06-16 08:39:58 GMT

Working link to audio : https://nostrrelay.cloud/52b88141217358254443e136c240cc89a60c8d026b72c227c9e320be955dd53b.mp4
#nevent1q…l25p

2025-06-16 08:33:02 GMT

The eruption of direct military conflict between Israel and Iran on June 13, 2025, presented global financial markets with a severe geopolitical shock. Intuition suggests that such a significant escalation of hostilities in a critical region should trigger a sustained downturn in risk assets. However, the market's reaction proved to be far more complex and, on the surface, paradoxical. After an initial, sharp sell-off across global indices, U.S. stock futures—including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100—rebounded and were trading in positive territory by the following Monday, June 16. This report provides an exhaustive, multi-layered explanation for this seemingly contradictory market behavior
https://nostrrelay.cloud/52b88141217358254443e136c240cc89a60c8d026b72c227c9e320be955dd53b.mp4

2025-06-16 08:11:38 GMT

2025-06-06 10:37:19 GMT

🔥 Engulfing Candles and Market Psychology: A Warning You Shouldn’t Ignore
When the market—or an individual stock—drops so sharply that a single candle engulfs the previous 3 to 4 weeks of gains, it's not just another red bar on the chart.
It’s a statement.
A candle that wipes out multiple weeks of progress in a single move is the market rejecting recent optimism, news, or even the company itself.
📉 What Is an Engulfing Candle?
In simple terms:
A bearish engulfing candle is a large red (down) candle that completely covers the range of the previous candle—or several of them.
When it engulfs multiple weekly candles, it's an even more powerful sign of reversal or breakdown.
This usually means:
Institutions are selling.
Support levels are failing.
Recent bullish sentiment is being completely overrun.
🚨 Why This Is a Major Warning Signal
When a stock or index prints a down weekly candle that erases the last 3-4 weeks of gains, here’s what it tells you:
Rejection of Narrative: The market is no longer buying the bullish story—whether it’s earnings, guidance, macro news, or momentum.
Transition to Distribution: It’s a sign that smart money might be exiting quietly while retail investors are still hopeful.
Psychological Shift: Buyers who were in profit are now flat or red. Fear replaces confidence. FOMO turns into panic.
Potential Trend Change: It often marks the start of a deeper correction or downtrend—especially if it happens on high volume.
📊 Real-World Examples
In 2022, many tech stocks had multi-week rallies off bear market lows. Then came one brutal red week that engulfed all progress—and those were often the top before new lows.
During earnings seasons, you’ll sometimes see a stock gap up for 2–3 weeks, then drop 10%+ in one day, wiping it all out. That’s a rejection by the market of the bullish interpretation.
🧠 What You Should Do When You See This
✅ Step back: Don't rush to buy the dip. Wait for confirmation and stability.
✅ Check volume: Was the drop on unusually high volume? That’s institutional activity.
✅ Analyze sentiment: Were traders too bullish too fast? Often, this kind of reversal follows euphoria.
✅ Set alerts: Watch if price undercuts key support or if follow-through buying fails.
🎯 Final Thought
When a candle swallows 3–4 weeks of bullish action, it's the market saying:
"We changed our mind."
This is not a time to argue with price.
Listen. Watch. Protect capital.
If you're patient, a clearer entry or trend will come.
https://nostrrelay.cloud/91672dd68bca40f111444a774649e0d8080e65cb59da6e92984eef24084c8483.png

2025-05-15 07:54:57 GMT

Humans remember the tasks they *didn’t* finish longer than the ones they did. Use that.” — Bluma Zeigarnik (paraphrased)

2025-04-11 11:21:06 GMT

You won’t become the best trader by being right on small moves…
You’ll get there by learning to be wrong small.
✅ Small losses protect your capital.
✅ Big wins move your equity curve.
The real edge? Cutting losers fast, not chasing perfection.

2025-04-10 07:44:08 GMT

📊 Historically, no bull market begins without a Follow-Through Day (FTD).
But here’s the catch: not all FTDs lead to a sustainable rally.
Just look at 2022—six FTDs failed before the market finally found a bottom.
FTDs are signals, not guarantees.
What matters is confirmation, strength, and leadership that follows.

2025-04-08 04:03:30 GMT

Futures are green today....
https://image.nostr.build/b1aae93436f83692aee252da80503eed1b03a5876eda4dc18e4b825a308de48b.png

2025-04-07 14:02:39 GMT

📉 The S&P 500 just posted its worst 3-day performance since October 1987.
Yes—since Black Monday.
This isn’t just volatility—it’s historic selling pressure.
In times like these, defense matters more than predictions.
#Finanstwitter

2025-04-07 08:29:39 GMT

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2025 already have 2 in top days ! #SPY
What a year we have
https://nostrrelay.cloud/4cfb0b1508dfb482a536bd9f715892336774c7c377b61f35c90d3bd2f35d59c6.png

2025-04-04 08:33:11 GMT

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If you want to listen to some Swedish listen to this one :) https://youtu.be/jfJAu__BvZQ

2025-04-04 04:18:59 GMT

The market’s been weak for weeks—yesterday wasn’t the start of the fall, just a continuation.
But let’s be clear:
“Sitting and waiting” out of fear isn’t strategy—it’s the Freeze in the Fight/Flight/Freeze model.
And that’s not a good place to trade from.
You don’t need to act, but you do need to stay mentally active and ready.
#market

2025-03-02 09:00:00 GMT

Own your content, control your reach—don’t let platforms decide what stays and what goes.
#NOSTR