Traditional #labour man - fifty plus years a party member and #union member -resident #putney - within #wandsworth - #economist - #internationalist and #traveller - aspiring #novelist
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2026-08-20T22:13:13Z Event JSON
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Last Notes npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy It would make far more sense for him to ostentatiously support whoever #Laɓour selects - so the blame for a poor result would have to go elsewhere. It is also worth bearing in mind that #shabanaMahmood has announced that she wishes to abolish #policeandcrimecommissioners and remove the comparable role from those mayors who exercise it. Such legislation if enacted would enable a dual mandate - as #borisJohnson had through much of 2015 and the first part of 2016. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy I do not expect the initial decision to refuse permission to #andyburnham to be reversed in time for him to make the short list let alone the long list. That means that members in the #gortonanddenton constituency #labourparty will not be able to consider him. A quick check on the - publicly available - #electoralcalculus site puts the #greens ahead of #labour - although not by much - and #reformuk in third place there. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy I do not know whether I can do so but still think it is worth the effort . I fear that 'new movements' will prove to be a series of 'will o the wisps' as the 'fruit and nut' party has become already! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy If this happened and #labour then lost the seat the most likely result would be a clean sweep of places on the #nec later this year followed by as a sharp a change in the running of the #labourparty as occurred at the beginning of the #starmer era - albeit in a rather different direction!. This might yet save the #labourparrty . However I would much prefer a less dramatic and messy process of change! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy #andyburnham has used conciliatory language in his letter asking for permission to apply. This puts the ball in the court of the hardliners on the #labournec - an immediate block would make it particularly difficult to hold the seat in the forthcoming byelection. And many members of the #nec come up for re-election by the membership later this year. However they may yet be blinkered enough to fall into the trap of blocking him and then losing it to #farage, #galloway or #polanski ! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy There is one significant difference from them. Data on immigration were based on a passenger survey which had inadequate coverage and was thus entirely unreliable. This is no longer the case . Data are a lot more reliable these days. At the same time most resource allocation decisions are backward looking - something which some local authorities have been very successful at gaming to their advantage . That has yet to change. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Much the same is true with crime! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Worth remembering also that diverting oil from #venezuela will improve utilisation of #us oil refining capacity - largely located in places which vote for his party. That would be an immediate benefit to him even if the process of increasing oil production in #venezuela proves to be both costly and lengthy - as I suspect it will! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Schumpeterian 'creative destruction' will work its way into productivity statistics after a lag - which should be rather good news for whoever is #chancelloroftheExchequer in 2027 or 2028! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Best not to underestimate the ability of #bluelabour to more than outplay the #conservatives in the role of the 'nasty party' ! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy This poses an acute dilemma for the #conservatives because their best prospect for gains in the elections in May lies in #london where they have a reasonable chance of taking two or three boroughs back from #labour. But not if they give the impression of hating the place and its residents! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy The trick for any successful investor is to get off a bandwagon a long time before it becomes a tumbril! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Social mobility should not be regarded as a substitute for equality but as something associated with and thus complementary to it. There is a pretty strong relationship between the two across countries. Occasionally somewhere does better on one than on the other - #France does economic equality better than social mobility while the reverse seems to be the case for the #Netherlands . npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Even after it gets Royal Assent we will still have to see what transpires with Commencement Orders, Regulations and other secondary legislation relating to it. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Given that there are people in #Downingstreet with past connections to #Resolutionfoundation - most notably #vidhyaalakeson and #baronessshafik - there is at least some hope that note will be taken of this! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy There is also a timing issue - pointed out in the #ftweekend . It is at least plausible that #uk share prices will decline sharply in the near future as the #AI bubble bursts. It would make far more sense to encourage #nationalsavings and even bring back the ability to purchase #gilts over a #postoffice counter. However nobody will be lobbying for any of that! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Unfortunately #tonyblair was quite happy to see that attrition continue - as were 'ultras' such as #alanmilburn . The people round #gordonbrown were rather more sceptical so the attrition stopped - and was even reversed albeit partially - for a while from 2007 onwards. Unfortunately the business of advocating further degrading of state capacity can be pretty lucrative - especially if the beneficiaries of outsourcing think individuals or organisations can influence #labour ! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy I think that they may have run up against a problem of reduced state capacity. Dealing with this is particularly difficult because there seems to be an ideological divide within #labour between those believe that this does not really matter because one can always outsource to the private sector - to the extent even of ceasing to be an 'informed buyer' of goods and services - and those who recognise how crucial basic state capacity is - and how costly its absence is proving to be. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy The risk has to be that the prospect of watering down of legislation at the stage of commencement orders, regulations and other matters not on the face of the bill will prolong uncertainty for business while creating an opportunity for any number of questionable 'consultancies' and lobbyists to 'muddy the waters'. Not clever at all! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy One problem is that the provisions both of the Parliament Acts and the Cranbourne/Salisbury Convention only apply to primary legislation and the latter only to items explicitly in the manifesto . The House of Lords can block secondary legislation such as commencement orders and detailed regulations time after time again if it chooses. To the extent that ministers have chosen to rely on secondary legislation they have laid themselves open to such tactics. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy I just wonder how long before someone claims that he is a political prisoner! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Historically there have been substantial barriers to entry by new political parties - for example #labour only contested two thirds of seats in the 1923 General Election and the #liberals less than a sixth in 1951. These barriers have diminished markedly in the last half century and especially in the last quarter century. So voters have been offered much more choice - although this does not appear to have increased their satisfaction with the political system! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Furthermore the most recent survey has been criticised for bias towards #london because it takes more account of housing costs than its predecessors. This criticism has come explicitly from #lukeakehurst - now an M.P. in #durham . npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy The survey is an excellent piece of work but deserves a rather less superficial analysis than a simple North South divide plus coastal communities versus urban centres dichotomy. Even aggregated to local authority level there is evidence of quite serious relative deprivation ( the 20% most deprived category) in parts of Greater London and disaggregated down to neighbourhood level severe relative deprivation can found in leafy and affluent #london boroughs. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Something rather similar happened the other way round with #pfi schemes in the 1990s and 2000s when remarkably high valuations were made of the supposed transfer of risk to the private sector. I seem to recall that when someone had the temerity to suggest that there should be a rational and transparent process for doing this the idea was stamped on from a great height! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy In the same context but in lighter vein I wonder whether the time has come for someone to commission new versions of two films I saw many years ago - 'The Manchurian Candidate' (perhaps Anglicised as 'The Mancunian Candidate'!) and 'Morgan - A Suitable Case for Treatment'? 😆 npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy It is unlikely to be anyone else - if only because almost all the others have gone - other than #vidhyaalakeson . She however appears to have been cast into the classic female role of clearing up a series of messes that others have made through arrogance and carelessness. - starting with the haemorrhage of #muslim support for #labour in the run up to the 2024 General Election. #shabanaMahmood and #WesStreeting would have lost their seats without her redirection of resources. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy The piece by #andrewrawnsley in #theobserver is interesting about the treatment of #lucypowell . It claims to have heard that #keirstarmer was unable to give a reason for removing her from the cabinet other than that he had been told to do so - presumably by #morganmcsweeney ? Couple that with an outbreak of briefing against the #cabinetsecretary - a career civil servant appointed less than a year ago - in the last couple of days and things begin to look seriously dysfunctional! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy This is significant because #simonfletcher - the author of the piece - was part of the #starmer team until the summer of 2021. Also worth looking at is the critique of #starmer by #stephenbush in the #ft this weekend. From provenance much further left comes 'The Fraud - Keir Starmer, Labour Together and the Crisis of British Democracy' by #paulholden. Although written from a #corbynista perspective it seems likely to contain a lot of verifiable - and even verified - material. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy The irony is that a return to defined benefit schemes would ease the #uk government's supposed funding problem by increasing demand for lower risk assets such as #gilts ! Odd that #torstenbell cannot see this! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy What has happened to cocoa and coffee prices may well be attributable to climate change. However I suspect that there may be another more traditional explanation for what has happened to beef, butter and milk. The 'pig cycle' was a familiar part of any course in agricultural economics - when I was at #university in the late 1960s. I suspect that something similar may be happening with beef and dairy products currently - a 'cattle cycle' - which should ease in a year or two. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy In the late 1970s there were quite a few macroeconomic forecasting models around - several of which were funded through the ESRC. There was then a cull in the early Thatcher period. What the creation of the OBR has done is to outsource the Treasury's own forecasting model and process. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy This suggests to me that the idea of pre-distribution through intervention in the labour market - by raising the living wage - can work to some extent. It may, however, be hitting the political buffers - at least in the #uk ! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy But one facilitated or even induced by the change in remit of the #bankofengland in 1997! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Inflation-adjusted #uk house prices seem to have fluctuated around the level they reached in the runup to the 2008 financial crisis over the 2010s and thus far into 2020s. This is very different from the experience in #london - where there was a further rise in inflation-adjusted house prices during the first half of the 2010s. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy The #london divergence in inflation-adjusted house prices emerged after 2008, peaked in 2016 and has declined somewhat since then - although it still seems significant. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy The timing is intriguing. The sustained rise in inflation-adjusted #uk house prices appears to have started in the late 1990s . This was before significant net immigration from the #eu but just after the #bankofengland was given both independence and an inflation target which excluded both asset prices and housing costs. I can recall #sircharlesgoodhart being extremely worried about this omission at the time - and saying so. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy The housing market in the #uk appears to have changed radically towards the end of the 1990s. Earlier despite fluctuations the level of house prices did not change much in relation to prices in general - it seems to have been roughly the same under #johnmajor as it had been under #edwardheath . It then tripled in less than a decade. Across the #uk it is still two and a half times the previous level while in #london it is close to four times. This divergence occurred after 2008. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy I would have to add that there is even inconsistency in the degree of inconsistency across the #nhs The acute hospital sector has experienced far less imposed organisational change than primary care and public health - let alone representation of the patients and the public! This has meant that any notion of moving emphasis away from the acute sector has been stillborn. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy It is not first past the post but ranking in order of preference. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy We should know later this week who got sufficient nominations to reach the starting line - my guess just two or three people. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy It s remarkable just how many people around #starmer spent time at the #Resolutionfoundation - officially non-partisan and with a #conservative former minister - #davidwilletts - as its chair. #torstenbell , #minoucheshafik , #vidhyaalakeson are obvious examples but I must confess to having encountered #rachelreeves at a meeting organised by it a few years back. My impression was that they were particularly concerned at working age poverty and ready to increase tax if necessary! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Not just the departure of #angelarayner but the movement of #jonathanreynolds to another role and the departure of #justinmadders to the backbenchers would enable this - if someone had this in mind! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy A constraint that has emerged is the quality of #hmrc software - according to the #ft today it cannot cope with the in year changes to capital gains tax rates in online returns for 2024/5 ! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy On the other hand the right wing website 'Guido Fawkes' have denounced her - so she may be good news! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Arguably the - presumably unintended - degrading of the output of the #ons is an even more flagrant example. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy That is also why private business investment in #sicily - where crime was relatively 'organised' - was much higher than in #sardinia - where it was much more individualistic! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy The table includes a further six economies. In descending order of size these are #italy , #türkey , #mexico , #southkorea , #spain and #canada . It is perhaps worth recalling that in the late 1980s #italy overtook the #uk in size of economy - 'il sorpasso' - although it did not maintain this for very long! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy I have just seen a table in the #ft showing the #imf ranking of estimated size of economy at purchasing parity this year npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy That may explain why the announcement of the outcome of the review of #localgovernmentfunding originally scheduled for #15August has not taken place yet. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Not just the political class! I have spent decades trying to get academics specialising in poverty/ income distribution to recognise the existence of relative price differences - without all that much success!😩 npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy To judge from what happened when he set aside a particularly scandalous superinjunction they may not get what they want. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Also worth seeing what #justicechamberlain decides in November - which could invalidate the original decision to proscribe and thus all convictions. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy I had best declare an interest in that #wandsworth - where I live - is one of the #boroughs in #innerlondon most affected. If pushed I would be willing to campaign in a local referendum for an increase of more than 5% in council tax if the alternative were major cuts in services. I might not like doing so but would be inclined to prefer the unpalatable to the disastrous! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy A complication is that several of the most conspicuous losers are councils under #labour administration - most notably in #innerlondon . Managing redistribution is likely to be very tricky - particularly if councils are not allowed to increase council tax rates by more than 5% p.a. without either special permission or approval in a local referendum. Having said that some of the ideas proposed - such as including a 'sparsity factor' to help thinly-populated areas - are long overdue. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy As I understand it she did try to sell the house while it was unoccupied. There may be another narrative here as to why this particular story emerged at a time when she was involved with proposals to tighten electoral law which would reduce if not eliminate the number of loopholes used to fund politics in the #uk . npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy The changing composition of crime in #englandandwales fits a pattern identified by #economists in the #homeoffice more than thirty years ago relating to the business cycle. Property crime is counter-cyclical while violent crime is pro-cyclical. This analysis upset #conservative ministers but was still published. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy The appointment of a former editor of #thesun to head #uk government communications suggests that senior female ministers can expect to get even more attention - although perhaps not in a particularly appropriate form! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy This is likely to have a delegitimising effect on democratic politics unless actions are taken to mitigate and offset this. In the #uk the forthcoming legislation to tighten the rules about political donations will be crucial in this respect. We will need to watch like hawks for attempts to water it down or even shelve it. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Can anyone remember what happened at Betteshanger in the early 1940s? npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy It ought to be possible to abhor all forms of #racism equally without having to assume that they are all the same in every particular. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy I was not arguing about growth in the 1950s. I was making the #alanmilward point that #nationalisation resulted in accelerated productivity growth the whole way to the 1980s privatisations. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Whereas #attlee's experiment actually succeeded in increasing growth in real GDP per head thereafter - although that was not its purpose! An example of obliquity? npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy This is a serious programme based on the ex post evaluation of #surestart - which generated far more benefits than it cost. Spoiler alert! Last month I attended a conference organised by the #ifs on precisely this subject. It ended with a conversation with the ultimate - if relatively benign ! - #centristdad - #edballs . Better him than #bigballs determining policy! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Another change which would be wise would be to move the term structure of #gilt issuance back towards longer term bonds. This would put servicing costs of public debt up a bit but would reduce the amount of refinancing required. The term structure of debt was a past source of stability which was jettisoned too lightly by #georgeosborne ! This may look like #financialrepression but if so it is hardly the 'full fat' version that existed between the 1930s and the 1980s. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy The #ft also points out elsewhere that the rally was driven by big players who saw an opportunity for a bargain. Which suggests to me - at any rate - that confidence may be rather less fragile than various commentators and interested parties suggest. #uk #gilts may well be seen as less risky than #ustreasuries in current circumstances. It may just be enough for the #uk to build in a bit more headroom/resilience into its projections to avoid 'bear raids' on #gilts . npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Others see it as somewhere where the classic social democratic model where a mass party linked formally or otherwise to organised labour still has traction. The case for this has been best set out by #davidbrady in 'Rich Democracies, Poor People' . It seems likely that the #labourparty members, the #tradesunions and most of the #parliamentarylabourparty believe they are living in a #davidbrady world - unfortunately it is not clear whether those in charge in #downingstreet do! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy The problem is that #UKLaɓour is unsure what world it is operating in. There are those who see the world as one of #postdemocracy - a term coined by #colincrouch more than a quarter of a century back - in which though formal institutions may remain political parties are reduced to electoral machines at best and policy discussions limited to experts at best but more often lobbyists. #colincrouch saw both the #italy of #silvioberlusconi and the #uk of #tonyblair as examples of this. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Another interesting effect is that almost everyone on the #statepension will 😀 fill in a self-assessment form for tax since the triple locked pension will exceed the personal allowance.. The form includes their national insurance number. As it happens a national insurance number is now required when applying to vote by post - an application which lapses and would have to be renewed every three years. So fiscal drag will support postal voting and reduce #votersuppression ! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Which means that the current #uk government has a maximum of three years in which to be seen to deliver improvements in material wellbeing. This may well be possible. However a lot of the sensible stuff it can do will take time while all kinds of dodgy lobbies will be pushing for it to do seriously stupid stuff in the meantime - much of which can be expected to backfire quite quickly! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy For historical and personal reasons I am particularly keen on including #stik in distributional calculations. However I do suspect that the argument has been overdone slightly on this occasion. I also have a feeling that health spending may be rather less redistributive at the margin than overall. This is I fear something of an academic argument since I doubt whether #labour officials can understand the issues let alone communicate them! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy There is rather more redistribution in the #comprehensivespendingreview than would appear at first reading. However it has taken the form of #socialtransfersinkind - usually abbreviated to #STIK - rather than cash. #nhs spending has been estimated to have a particularly strong redistributive effect so the concentration of growth in day to day spending on health will have turbocharged this. So quite a strong case can be made - but not clear #labour communications are up to it! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy The #us healthcare system can indeed be learned from - but in aggregate as a spectacular cautionary tale ! It can sometimes get things right at a granular/local level - as I found when on a visit to study the #hospitalforspecialsurgery in #newyork twenty three years ago That particular piece of learning influenced the development of the #southwestlondonelectiveorthopediccentre at #epsom - something of a success for the #nhs. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Tacit knowledge and experience ought to be of value to the individual - and can support institutional memory - except that in the #uk there seems all too often active hostility to any form of institutional memory - which could, of course, explain why things seem not to work very well and gratuitous but costly mistakes are made on a routine basis! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Yes I did. Clever but silly because the argument is extendable almost infinitely - to concepts like social capital , social impact bonds etc. Which means that it will arouse suspicion among lenders. National accountants have been flexible enough to reclassify research and development spending as capital - as indeed they have with much military equipment - after a proper process. Furthermore they think they know how to depreciate physical capital but not human capital as yet! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Half a loaf - in the form of capital spending funded by borrowing - is still a lot better than no bread! And not pressing the Bank of England to hit the 2% p.a. inflation target too soon is a bit of a nod towards credit creation by the state - otherwise known as 'seigniorage' - although best not made too explicit - and in my view less likely to cause worry to lenders than playing clever but silly games with the definition of public investment! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy I would be very cautious indeed about preferring administrative data as opposed to survey data. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy So a lot hangs on whether #angelarayner and #rushanaraali are able to see the bill through into law in the next year or two. They deserve support on this - particularly against opponents within #Laɓour ! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Which is why the forthcoming #electionsbill will be crucial. It needs to clean up #partyfinance in the way that the last #Laɓour manifesto would have proposed were it not for the alleged intervention of #waheedalli and #morganmcsweeney . If it does not then #us experience will not just be an awful warning. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy They are there because groups like #labourtogether and the heroically misnamed #labourtowin saw them as useful auxiliaries against their #corbynista opponents - just as the latter earlier on had made use of some pretty unpleasant groupuscules themselves. History is littered with cases where supposed auxiliaries get out of hand - the #freikorps in the early #weimarrepublic being the classic example! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Unfortunately they are capable of operating over a wider spectrum - as the renewed monstering of the #attorneygeneral #richardhermer for daring to speak up for the rule of law - even international law - and citing #carlschmitt as a cautionary tale of where rejection of this can lead - shows only too well. I fear that they may be taking particular pleasure in going after the equalities minister - #seemamalhotra - who happens to be both female and of #southasian heritage! . npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy I suspect that a lot of this has been achieved through the use of what are known as 'bank staff', These are NHS employees who agree to work extra shifts - not always for the same trust - at overtime rates. It is their choice ad there is no suggestion of any pressure to do this. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy There is a view that #multifactor #productivity in the #uk is actually quite high by international standards - and that the real problem is one of factor proportions - too little #capital as against #labour in particular. To which the answer would be either to attract in #capital or for the #uk to find the #capital itself. One form of #endogenousgrowththeory suggests that the latter strategy would work well. Interpreting fiscal rules to enable it would make sense! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy This practice went on for a lot longer in the #uk than your post implied. There were still 'morally feeble minded' women being held in institutions well into my lifetime! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy I suspect that the delay is a 'knock on effect' of the shift over winter fuel allowance - it may hopefully be part of an orderly retreat from untenable positions ahead of the elections next May - sorting out winter fuel in the #comprehensivespendingreview next month and then finding the money to address child poverty in the autumn budget - either by magic or through recourse to taxation! Although that may be expecting too much of #morganmcsweeney as a political strategist! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy If it is to be effective by November this year it will need to be included in the #comprehensivespendingreview - due out on 11th June - and will need to be as simple as possible to introduce. The most obvious way to do this would be to reinstate winter fuel as a universal payment but take it into account for tax purposes - as happens anyway with the state pension. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy To be fair 15% is still below the level that #uk #companylaw regards as constituting 'significant control' - so defensible to some extent! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy #bridgetphillipson can act to make education outside #london more appropriate - achieving #london results by different means. #angelarayner can enable countervailing power to be exercised against monopsony employers by strengthening #tradeunions and employment rights. #heidialexander can improve local transport outside #london systematically. The question is whether the 'boys club' in #downingstreet and the #faragist 'fellow travellers' in #bluelabour will let them do so! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy This reflects the fact that the educational system developed under various governments over the last quarter of a century or more was suited only to #london - travel to work is much easier than elsewhere. This meant that good quality education was available to all - something noticed particularly by ethnic minorities! Also there were not monopsony employers let alone 'company towns' as elsewhere. The #labour government can change this - through three powerful women. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Some of the volatility may be due to the deterioration in the quality and reliability of key #uk economic statistics. #SirIanDiamond may have fallen on his sword over this but the real culprits are likely to have those in #hmtreasury who pressed successfully for spurious 'efficiency savings' at #ons . npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy This did not happen until the early 1990s when the #conservatives brought in the model of 'GP Fundholding'. To get practices to adopt it they instituted a premium in order to the previous formula - which had been needs based to some extent. Unsurprisingly it was G.P.s in more affluent areas who took this up disproportionately. When #labour abolished fundholding it ducked the issue of the 'Fundholding premium' which was left in place. Typical of #tonyblair I am afraid! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy It may be worth recalling that in the second half of 1944 there were three major campaigns on land that #uk forces were engaged in - North West Europe, Italy and Burma - now #myanmar . South Asian soldiers were predominantly involved in the latter two and African soldiers in the last. Focussing on the first campaign at the expense of the 'dday dodgers' in Italy and the 'forgotten army' in Burma has the consequence - presumably unintended - of aiding such 'whitewashing'. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy It is easy to do. Unfortunately there is a tendency by both opinion formers and decision makers to focus on doctors - and occasionally nurses - while appearing to ignore pharmacists, radiographers and others. This worries me not least because I suspect rather more in those professions would be female or from ethnic minorities - or both - than would be the case with doctors. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy The workers in question - who are skilled and valuable - are not doctors but allied health professionals . The Society of Radiographers has suggested that one reason for the shortage of mammographers is that that role is completely barred to men currently - and presumably now to any trans women! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy This will take time to show up in the receiving ports - a month or two? In the meantime there will be some people who deny that is happening! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy There was a similar scheme during the 1930s - from which a number of #german academics benefited. It will be interesting to see who in the #uk objects to reviving it! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy I have read somewhere that #cambridge has set some funds aside for academic refugees from the #us also. npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy And the situation is not exactly helped by giving undue attention to 'fellow travellers' of the populist right such as #mauriceglasman of #bluelabour - interviewed at length in the yesterday's #observer ! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy Which may mean in a first past the post system with more than two serious contenders either formal pacts or tactical voting - or both. Pacts reduce choice at constituency level while tactical voting requires reliable and unbiased information. Neither is uncontentious and neither may be achievable in practice. Voters may decide themselves on a default basis which parties are serious contenders - as may be happening in #canada this month! npub1peaesc6t276ma48734e937ql5g6jln8ecjv9kwh9ya38f65w4ngsruawt0 Donald Roy It is not at all clear that having more choice has improved voter satisfaction. To judge by turnout it seems likely to have declined - although the turnout figures in 2023 and 2024 may well have been affected by #votersuppression !
