Real Man Sports on Nostr: I did this from a coffee shop with a borrowed pen on a paper place-mat on the way ...
I did this from a coffee shop with a borrowed pen on a paper place-mat on the way back from getting our impossible-to-copy ancient house keys copied. Some of my lines/guesses were way off from the real ones.
It’s not just that I was way off, it’s that I was way off almost uniformly in the same direction — so many of my lines (and guesses) were way too high. Normally, I feel like I have the opposite problem Week 1 as I overestimate the uncertainly after a long offseason, and the market prices teams more or less like the prior year. But here we are in 2023, and it’s like the market got woke to the idea of “Who the hell knows, we haven’t seen a game in seven months!”
When you’re this far off, you should question your leans more. Not that the market is the be-all, end-all like some seem to believe, but you shouldn’t be so far afoul of it across the board.
Accordingly, I might not only ignore my lines here, but actively go the other way in some cases, say taking the Steelers getting only 2.5 at home against the Niners which seems crazy, but now somehow feels right. The Rams getting only 5.5 without Cooper Kupp is another I might use.
I will stick with my Browns lean as my guessed line was dead on there. And the Giants should be a pick ‘em at home against the Cowboys. The Giants moneyline looks good to me, in fact.
In any event, it’s only Monday morning, so I have time to think these over before I commit.
Published at
2023-09-04 12:10:02Event JSON
{
"id": "f8ba0058bf5b2aee94fe6bb1d1642400f541f0c5d13c1adb4fa8f5acfcde461a",
"pubkey": "6bae33c8bc26a5c573912af4b96b6ef690258ea3735ba90ca05d9b7a607272e8",
"created_at": 1693822202,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [],
"content": "I did this from a coffee shop with a borrowed pen on a paper place-mat on the way back from getting our impossible-to-copy ancient house keys copied. Some of my lines/guesses were way off from the real ones. \n\nIt’s not just that I was way off, it’s that I was way off almost uniformly in the same direction — so many of my lines (and guesses) were way too high. Normally, I feel like I have the opposite problem Week 1 as I overestimate the uncertainly after a long offseason, and the market prices teams more or less like the prior year. But here we are in 2023, and it’s like the market got woke to the idea of “Who the hell knows, we haven’t seen a game in seven months!”\n\nWhen you’re this far off, you should question your leans more. Not that the market is the be-all, end-all like some seem to believe, but you shouldn’t be so far afoul of it across the board. \n\nAccordingly, I might not only ignore my lines here, but actively go the other way in some cases, say taking the Steelers getting only 2.5 at home against the Niners which seems crazy, but now somehow feels right. The Rams getting only 5.5 without Cooper Kupp is another I might use. \n\nI will stick with my Browns lean as my guessed line was dead on there. And the Giants should be a pick ‘em at home against the Cowboys. The Giants moneyline looks good to me, in fact. \n\nIn any event, it’s only Monday morning, so I have time to think these over before I commit. \n\n\nhttps://cdn.nostr.build/i/fcfa4a01cfe2ab125aa2b70875d56dea7968e15ab96d6d5e26f3131beacb9e19.png",
"sig": "6a76f474019b6ef1ee21f418f6d2bf9d84d1320dbf27a978764956906f879c1a4167736eb9a692fbd83f6d2c5fe8442f5a45372fb036253944840809f62b3f4e"
}
