Real Man Sports

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Last Notes

2024-06-25 14:05:49

I was on the fence about going all in for NFL or just half-assing this substack and refunding everyone their money. On the one hand I will definitely have some fantasy teams and be watching on Sundays, but on the other do I want to be glued to the TV for seven hours every week and write up all the standalone games again?
I’m definitely half-assing baseball and enjoying it. That’s why I outsourced my teams the last two years, and I don’t feel I’m missing much. I guess my lack of close watching of MLB has kept me out of the MLB conversation on social media, but I feel like that ship had mostly sailed anyway when that community lost its mind in woke psychosis and pharmaceutical salesmanship zealotry. The NFL crowd is, on balance, more normal. Baseball’s conduciveness to statistical measurement is apparently to ideologically-compliant laptop-class midwits like Taylor Swift to teenage girls.
But the main reason I’ve decided to go all-in again on NFL (and hence this substack) is from a chance post I made on nostr yesterday that opened my eyes to what’s possible there. I mentioned Heather is writing a tourism/restaurant guide for Lisbon to send to the legions of friends and friends of friends who are constantly visiting, and immediately some of the protocol’s most prominent developers responded saying she should definitely post it, and there would be great interest in such a thing. (Heather has not yet agreed to do this, but I am working on her.)
And I thought, this niche social media protocol (which I firmly still believe is the future for reasons enumerated elsewhere) is the perfect place to make quality content because its readers are committed to growing the decentralized alternative to corporate social media platforms. Anyone will support (and zap, i.e., pay with bitcoin via the lightning network) quality content in which they’re interested much more than on Twitter where there is so much of it already, algorithms favoring established players and no particular loyalty or enthusiasm for the platform. It’s a small, but rapidly growing and well capitalized niche of smart and indepdent thinking people looking to promote and support freedom technology.
So I’m going to give it a serious go because the opportunity there is suddenly interesting to me, more so than simpy increasing readership/revenue of the newsletter. Don’t get me wrong, I like to make money as much as the next guy but revenue is just gross. (This joke fell flat on Twitter and nostr, but that’s no reason not to foist it on my substack readers too.)
I still won’t do waiver wire bullshit or tell you who to start and sit each week. You should just subscribe to RotoWire (in which I no longer have any financial interest) for that. I’m going to post a lot of observations, which means I actually have to observe a lot of NFL. And of course, I will post it here too (the articles at least), but for the daily posts, you’ll have to go to nostr. (I would post those here, but I don’t think you want to get 5 emails a day from my substack.)

2024-06-20 11:00:36

But how does one *prove* eligibility to this league?
https://nostrcheck.me/media/134743ca8ad0203b3657c20a6869e64f160ce48ae6388dc1f5ca67f346019ee7/ec87c9c0bd8241bcd7aedc7bac93067d9d96dd1b06c98a3c8fe9130322d720b5.webp

2024-06-13 11:45:53

Daughter wanted to go to a baseball game when we were in the States this summer, so I bought tickets when we’re in Denver.
Think she just wants some Rockies gear and stadium junk food though. For her it’s gonna be like when we went to the Bob Dylan concert last year, and he only played songs neither of us had ever heard.
(The Rockies are mostly scrubs, and she doesn’t follow baseball in any event.)

2024-06-08 10:47:56

If you read Todd Zola’s RotoWire piece https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/article/the-z-files-will-scoring-pick-up-82987 (paywall), you’ll see a convincing case that the baseball is deader this year, not leaving the park as often, explains the low run-scoring environment.
Seems like injuries to key players are up too, but maybe that’s just my teams.

2024-06-05 17:40:39

Ohtani being cleared by MLB is like covid being declared zoonotic by the NIH and CDC. No way they were going to investigate seriously the biggest international star in the history of the sport no matter how obvious it is that a bookie would never extend millions in credit to his interpreter.
I’m fine with it — I really don’t care if Ohtani gambles, but the premise they were investigating him is a joke.

2024-06-05 17:37:37

Disappointing to see the GOAT Djokovic have to drop out with a knee injury. But this is how it more or less goes for everyone as they get old. I actually think to a large extent it’s not that people lose their skills so much as the amount of work it takes to stay healthy and recover from repetitive stress and injuries becomes insurmountable.
Jerry Rice played WR into his 40s only because he was such a maniac at training, but even he got got by Father Time.

2024-06-03 09:12:51

real talk
https://x.com/CST_soxvan/status/1797374177021767892

2024-06-02 23:41:17

- reply

Bieber was my SP2, Gallen 1, Darvish 3. High-stakes 15-team league. Just brutal.

2024-06-02 17:57:34

Rooting for Kyrie to win a second title — dude was so based during covid, withstood a ton of heat for his principles and was 100% correct.

2024-06-02 17:26:43

My fantasy baseball teams are crushed by injuries. High stakes team lost its top pitcher (hamstring), second pitcher (TJ surgery), top closer (oblique), third pitcher (hamstring), seventh and eighth pitchers.
Also top hitter (hamstring) and a few others. It’s only June 2.
Baseball is not supposed to be as hazardous as NFL, but seems like it.

2024-05-28 12:15:55

Some assorted thoughts about what’s going on in sports:
- In the NFBC Main Event, most people wanted 1.1 or 1.2 to get Ronald Acuna or Spencer Strider. Now those teams are largely drawing dead. It feels like injuries in baseball are as prevalent as in football now.
- Good news for the Braves is every time Acuna tears an ACL they win the World Series.
- Imagine bullding your fantasy team around Esteury Ruiz’s steals. DOA from Opening Day. (I shouldn’t talk after building my Main Event in part around Trea Turner and Jackson Chourio.)
- Elly De La Cruz has nine homers and 31 steals, and it’s still May. He also has 72 strikeouts, and his average has sunk to .254. Everyone can now claim to be right about him.
- Last year, league ERA was 4.33, this year, 3.97, same as 2022. And that’s despite Spencer Strider and Gerrit Cole, the top-two starters by ADP, being out (though two players would only move the needle very slightly.) I don’t know if it’s the pitchers getting used to the pitch clock after an adjustment year or more tinkering with the baseballs. I hope it’s the former because I’m sick of the run environment being created by fiat.
- I expect Corbin Carroll to be fine. Jose Ramirez, peak Derek Jeter and peak David Ortiz all had years where they were hitting around .200 into June and turned it around. Unless his shoulder is the issue, but he’s playing every day, and if it were, I imagine they would have rested him more.
- Corey Seager was off to a slow start, but now he’s hitting a HR every day. For hitters like him and Yordan Alvarez the *only* ingredients you ever need are health and time. The worst is when a guy is off to a slow start, then gets hurt before he can make up for it. Knock on wood.
- Julio Rodriguez is heating up, but so far the only right answer to an early pick was Bobby Witt. (Most people took Kyle Tucker, Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts mid-first.)
- Jurickson Profar might set the record for “post” in a post-hype breakout.
- Freddie Freeman (5 HR, 1 SB) might be aging (Mark) Gracefully.
- Someone has Chris Sale, Ranger Suarez and Shota Imanaga on a roster. Garrett Crochet, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Jarred Jones, Jack Flaherty, Tanner Houck and Seth Lugo were also dirt cheap. So far it looks like this was the year to load up on hitting and gamble.
- I faded Jose Ramirez because I thought the team context might hurt his counting stats, and now he’s leading the league by a mile with 54 RBI in May despite batting only .266.
- Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic show (to my great surprise) you can be fat and white and still dominate in the NBA.
- I just can’t care about the NFL or fantasy football until at least late June. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, let me have some absence from it, FFS.
- Mike Tyson has about 60 seconds to knock out Jake Paul, or he’s toast. Not saying he won’t do it, but at 57, he won’t last long.
- The dust-up about Harrison Butker is ridiculous. Teams need to stop caring what players think or say off the job, and if fans bitch, tell them to take it up with someone who cares. That Trevor Bauer doesn’t have a job, and that people defend this by saying, “no one wants the headache” as though a headache is reason to set a precedent where fans can dictate what a player can and cannot say at penalty of losing his career is short-sighted in the extreme. And don’t pretend Bauer is being punished for what he did rather than who he is — he was not even criminally charged, and his accuser admitted to extorting him while players who are guilty of domestic abuse served shorter suspensions and are playing. While Colin Kaepernick protested on company time, his blackballing for that, rather than just a fine, was really the modern precedent that set this off. That’s why you should be for free expression you don’t agree with because once they start down that road, there’s no stopping it.

2024-05-28 10:13:59

57-YO Mike Tyson has about 60 seconds to knock out Jake Paul or he’s toast.
He might do it, but the longer it goes on, the worse it is.
https://nostrcheck.me/media/134743ca8ad0203b3657c20a6869e64f160ce48ae6388dc1f5ca67f346019ee7/54ac85d7e550de5e5e3955855264b683ea9aec8f06e531591f0ab4b25c65ab75.webp

2024-05-27 13:30:53

What Doncic’s and Jokic’s NBA success shows is that surprisingly you can be fat and white and still dominate in the NBA.

2024-05-27 13:28:52

RIP all of those teams that draft 1.1 this year.
https://nostrcheck.me/media/134743ca8ad0203b3657c20a6869e64f160ce48ae6388dc1f5ca67f346019ee7/ef6ad4dc3d914cb27db035285b55b4e2af9344cda80cfd6d78e8639b2014e059.webp

2024-05-23 23:24:11

https://fountain.fm/episode/4PwMYwzYkoVHAEaPNizd

2024-05-15 19:31:16

https://fountain.fm/episode/LMs7HDOdTldKrLTGC0UD

2024-05-13 09:12:20

As a Knicks fan, I’ve been checked out the last couple decades, but people have been going on about how might fight this team has, so I tuned in last night.
They were down 35 early in the second half, so I turned it off.

2024-05-07 20:24:40

- reply

He's the closest to making it of the guys I left out. I think if he had *any* playoff success (not necessarily his fault, but it is the whole goal of the sport), or had he aged better (really fell off a cliff his last 5 years except for one decent rebound in 2021), I would have put him in. But he’s basically the same WAR as Freeman and Goldschmidt, but five years older and no playoffs.

2024-05-02 18:12:03

https://fountain.fm/episode/FdJOmSRQZZhpIrGW1pjI

2024-05-02 16:30:29

Faded all of them except Strider who I missed because I never picked early enough to get him.
Velocity kills.
https://nostrcheck.me/media/134743ca8ad0203b3657c20a6869e64f160ce48ae6388dc1f5ca67f346019ee7/862a3996d2ca720613177df2d72f8f655d82860b544384781e47dcd7cf0a98d7.webp

2024-04-29 10:43:18

- reply

Hit an inside-the-park HR last night now too. Still hasn’t hit a traditional HR, one month into the year. Probably just noise though.

2024-04-28 22:45:20

Paul George is unconscious — draining every shot from everywhere.

2024-04-26 10:23:46

Best thing about the NFL draft is no one knows anything. Like that my Giants didn’t force a QB, got a potential star WR, but remind me of this take in five years.

2024-04-25 21:11:43

Wyatt Langford stole a base — first one of his career, but still on zero homers.

2024-04-18 14:11:22

This has aged pretty well so far.
I expected (and expect) MLB to look into this about as much as the USG investigated the Nordstream Pipeline bombing.
#note1jjd…ywax

2024-03-21 20:26:03

https://www.realmansports.com/p/assorted-thoughts-c39

2024-01-15 22:57:55

Jim Nance recalling his weather lockdown fondly on air.

2024-01-15 22:20:41

In the NFBKC league I run with my daughter, we just picked up "white Kobe"
https://x.com/11Deshaun/status/1746288573387837480?s=20

2024-01-07 22:09:32

Dan Campbell going all out. Not surprised but didn't know he'd do it. If LaPorta out, that hurts, but I don't fault him too much for it.

2024-01-07 22:07:19

Jaguars had Calvin Ridley on a wide open bomb for the tying TD, Lawrence missed him. Have Ridley on a 31:1 CPOTY ticket. Of course, they wouldn't give it to him. But at least he'd have a case

2024-01-07 22:05:24

CAR had a TD lost to a fumble into the end zone, missed a FG with the backup K and had another rushing TD called back on an illegal formation, next play sack fumble.

2023-12-31 23:38:56

mahomes going down the Russell Wilson career path

2023-12-24 23:28:23

it's dishonorable for the Jets and Packers to blow those leads, not cover, but still win on Christmas Eve no less.

2023-12-18 01:07:12

can't believe I watched the whole retarded WAS goal-line sequences with WAS +6.5, and they try the PAT, and it gets blocked anyway. Beyond retarded.

2023-12-17 22:19:57

WTF is up with not showing the replay of injuries? We're watching NFL. It's too sensitive for the audience?

2023-12-17 21:45:28

dumb ass Falcons tackled Hubbard rather than letting him score.

2023-12-17 21:02:02

all of a sudden there are a million offensive offside calls? WTF?

2023-12-17 20:14:52

the only time all year I sit Godwin, he's got 100 yards in the first half

2023-12-16 23:18:10

what a play by Minshew, keeping it alive, directing traffic

2023-12-16 21:25:56

Week 15 ATS Picks
I went 3-2 last week on both sets of picks — it could have been a great week, but I decided to go contrarian with the Eagles and Chiefs.
Here’s what I have this week:
https://image.nostr.build/11f69270a5ff326a639f91a6fbf7d189fa88ef90429336af2be2902ebcede844.jpg
I’m surprised the Colts are only one-point favorites at home against the Steelers. They were three originally, and I’m not sure what caused this drastic line movement.
The Broncos strike me as roughly equal to the Lions, so 4.5 seems like a lot.
The Cardinals are only getting 12 here — I liked them better at 13.5 where it opened. But this seems like a letdown road game for the Niners.
The Bills were a last-second hunch pick, fading Dak and the Cowboys away from home. But this one feels the shakiest.
Finally, if Tyreek Hill doesn’t play, the Dolphins are just average, and they always seem to fall off later in the year. The Jets can smash it out with them, maybe win outright.
https://image.nostr.build/ea38a774ba0418968429896e50083e4dca857e71c811fdba03038b2db733e6ad.jpg
These are the same, except I subbed in the Football Team for the Bills. The Rams are decent, but coming off a dramatic loss in overtime. I like the rested Team to keep it close.

2023-12-14 20:20:12

Never in my life have I had Monday Night game(s) go this perfectly for me. Here’s what I needed going in:
(1) Saquon Barkley + 3 > Tyreek Hill and the Packers defense. Check
(2) Titans or Dolphins, preferably both, cover. Check
(3) Giants win outright. Check.
As a result, I have shockingly made the playoffs in my Primetime league, won a double week in my home picking pool (last week was tied) and tied for first place in the pool after going 12-3 ATS.
Third place pays $1100 in the Primetime, plus I get into the playoffs, for which my team is woefully unprepared (two bad defenses, e.g.) because I really didn’t think I would make it. And the picking pool is $70 per week, so another $140, plus a chance to win the whole thing.
It turns out I was 37 points out of second place in the Primetime, thankfully more than the 28 I left on my bench when I made that disastrous last-second swap of Brock Purdy for Dak Prescott in Week 5.
Here’s what I wrote after Week 5:
And the final kick in the nuts (although it’s almost funny at this point) is that Goff outscored Purdy by one point from my bench in Steak, i.e., it was still a bad decision to have Purdy in, even though, I tried to hedge against that by inflicting utter catastrophe on my Primetime team which is 1-4 and pretty much drawing dead even when Saquon Barkley returns.
And here were the Primetime standings after Week 5:
https://image.nostr.build/bde2458aad26ab3351403e9b72c96ddd1ae7f3871fcfd6ea14f12440faea1118.png
Here are the Primetime standings today (my win hasn’t updated yet):
https://image.nostr.build/521d8c900b82d05228bd46c8913884ef9df733dcb39458565df44341a1dfeb5c.png
I lost again in Week 6, then won eight games in a row, not that the record mattered. I do feel bad for Rod Lurie who had me dead to rights before Week 14, but here was his lineup:
https://image.nostr.build/eacbd2726e98edd80282b1ec81cd2df24e026bc84a4cddcbaaee2f996ad99072.png
He had in-game injuries to Hill and Nico Collins, and started Joshua Dobbs over Trevor Lawrence because Lawrence was supposedly gimpy heading into the game and facing the Browns. Had he started Lawrence, he gets third instead of me. And had I not put Evan Engram (32.5 points) in my flex over Kenneth Walker, I also lose.
It’s important to keep in mind how much fantasy football and the NFL itself are a tragedy or errors and a jungle of bad information. No matter how much you want to defenestrate from a bad decision or bad bounce, it’s happening everywhere all the time.
. . .
I only watched the highlights of both games — it’s impossible to find the 40-minute version at 8 am Western European Time. So here are a couple quick takes:
I’ve already mentioned how I think Hill is a top-three receiver in NFL history, so it’s no surprise the Dolphins offense would struggle without him. There are a few guys — Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Hill, e.g., by whose presence an ordinary quarterback becomes a star and a good quarterback becomes the best in the league.
Prior to Moss, Tom Brady was a 25-TD/year game manager. After Moss, he was outscoring Peyton Manning. (Rob Gronkowski was also a “king-maker” target in his own right.) Before Owens, Donovan McNabb had 16 TDs and 11 picks. With Owens, he had 31 and eight, respectively. Hill is doing for Tua what Owens did for McNabb.
Hill, Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams are my three MVPs. Dak Prescott has played great since the 49ers game, but I don’t think you can separate him from Josh Allen and Brock Purdy the way the other three separate from the best players at their positions.
Raheem Mostert has 18 touchdowns with four games to go. What’s crazy about this is his teammate De’Von Achane also has nine TDs himself in essentially five games. And of course Hill has 12 TDs too.
I don’t really understand how the Titans came back down two touchdowns with 4:39 left. I saw the actual scores, but the highlights excluded everything in between. How badly did the Dolphins look on those final drives on both sides of the ball?
His late fumble notwithstanding, I love Saquon Barkley. He delivered big time for me, and I hope he remains a Giant.
I didn’t get to see enough Tommy DeVito — his rollout pass to Isaiah Hodgins was like Joe Montana to Dwight Clark, and he took no sacks and threw no picks. At the very least the Giants seem to have found a competent backup.
WanDale Robinson had a big day as a rusher and receiver. He’s more of a gadget guy than a No. 1, so the Giants still need a WR, but if he and Darren Waller can ever stay healthy, they will be good building blocks.
Brian Daboll is a good coach. The Giants play hard and compete every week despite being arguably the worst team in the league a few weeks ago.

2023-12-11 01:13:57

love the punt by the Vikings instead of the FG. Let the Raiders cover. But it was a bad punt. Still right move. TD beats you either way.

2023-11-27 02:00:51

Romo STFU

2023-11-26 23:59:47

was watching some old Lawrence Taylor highlights -- half his sacks were horse-collars -- Tom Brady was right. The game has become worse

2023-11-24 14:46:20

THANKSGIVING DAY OBSERVATIONS
Before I get into the NFL action, I want to say I otherwise had an enjoyable Thanksgiving, one of the better ones in recent memory. We went to a friend of a friend’s house, ate outdoors on a sunny, beautiful fall day and had really good food. They had three different styles of turkey, and our friends smoked a pork shoulder and brought that, along with the mashed potatoes, stuffing and everything else. The desserts were great too.
There was even a basketball hoop where I played some one-on-one with Sasha (She’s getting to the point where I just try at 80 percent to beat her, rather than let her have easy layups like I used to.) Needless to say, I racked up my fair share of blocks, though she did make some buckets when I lazily let her go by and tried to catch up, but she was faster than I thought.
Unfortunately, when I got home, I turned on the end of the Lions-Packers and was aghast to see my Lions -7.5 was dead, and my last-second switch from the Saints to Lions defense (zero points) in the Primetime was a disaster.
Why did I make a last-second move yet again, disrespecting my former self, after vowing not to do that?
The answer is I have a process (like I imagine most people have) which is to set my lineups on Wednesday ahead of the FAAB run to get clear on what I need. It’s not a finalized lineup, but just a quick-look plausible one to identify where I might need help from the waiver wire.
Often that’s the lineup at which I’m looking on Sunday morning when contemplating a switch. On the one hand, that seems like a reason to be open to switching, since I didn’t put much thought into it, but on the other, that quick, snap-judgement on the plausible lineup is often the truest reflection of what you think before you get nervous about making an error. You’re saying, “I can switch this later, so I’m not worried about it, but, top-of-the-head, here’s what I think.” And that’s what you really think.
But it’s an odd psychological trick, which by identifying and writing about it, I’m now ruining. Because the lineup isn’t final, you have no fears in setting it, so it’s your truest lineup. But now that I’ve said that, next time I do it, I’ll be aware that it’s the final lineup and put more thought into it, making it as worthless as my last-second switches. You have to not care, and you can only not care if it’s not binding. In other words, the only lineup you should adhere to without deviation is the one that’s not binding. It’s a paradox like almost every other important truth in life.
So I had the Saints, but then I got to thinking: “The Lions are much bigger favorites than the Saints, and Justin Fields takes a lot of sacks.” That kind of midwittery is the failure recipe.
I almost got so annoyed I switched out Dak Prescott for Brock Purdy, but thankfully I did not. Prescott and CeeDee Lamb did their parts, Kittle didn’t, and now I just need to pray for the Saints to have a modest game so I don’t defenestrate Sunday. If they put up 20, I have a feeling it’ll be the difference between making and missing the postseason.
I went 0-3 ATS. Just the wrong side of every game, and there was a clear right side in each. (I used only one — the Lions — in the offshore super contest though.)
I benched Jared Goff for Kyler Murray in the Steak League, and that at least seemed like a silver lining, but the Lions drove for a meaningless TD late that padded Goff’s stats pretty nicely. JG still stands for “Just a Guy” though.
Amon Ra St. Brown also looked like he was having a dud, but a few catches on the final drive corrected his week. He has yet to have a bad fantasy game all year.
Christian Watson finally did something. He was second on the team with seven targets, and I think we can trust him as a useful low-end starter going forward.
I don’t know what to make of Jordan Love. My sense is he’s got a future as a high-end backup, but obviously the verdict isn’t yet in.
Dak Prescott feasts on bad defenses, and the Cowboys are pass heavy. He would have had an even bigger day had he not overthrown CeeDee Lamb who was wide open on a deep route on the game’s first series.
Anyone else notice Dak says “Here we go!” every snap?
Tony Pollard is waking up the last couple weeks. Thirteen carries and six targets is sufficient.
Sam Howell got another 300 passing yards. Only C.J. Stroud and Goff are on pace for more passing yards. (There should be trifeca futures props available for league leaders.)
Why was Tony Romo praising the Football Team in the first quarter as if it were a contender? Dude, they got swept by the Giants!
When did the NFL (and TV generally) start permitting ads for hard booze (Crown Royal) Not that I have a problem with it, but I just thought it was beer only.
The Seahawks had no chance at any point. Their only TD was a fluky tipped-ball pick six, and one field goal was set up by a long kick return.
Cris Collinsworth praised Christian McCaffrey saying, “he’s not the fastest, he’s not the biggest, he’s not the strongest, he’s not the anything-ist, but he’s the best.” And I thought, “He is the whitest.” McCaffrey does make it look easy, though.
Jaxon-Smith Njigba made a nice one-handed catch. DK Metcalf gets most of the targets, but he doesn’t have the feel of a great receiver near the sidelines. No one did much on the Seattle offense anyway though.
So it was a nice Thanksgiving, but football-wise for me, it was shit.

2023-11-18 15:48:51

Week 11 ATS Picks
I went 1-4 last week in all three pools (I used the same picks), which was disappointing after I had been on quite a roll. My overall records dropped from six, seven and eight games over .500 to three, four and five, respectively. Whatever dream I might have had of getting into overall contention is dead. The only silver lining is not having a Circa Millions-winning season the year I skipped the Circa Millions.
Here are this week’s picks:
https://image.nostr.build/b4a9b0a269442ee2bd847235abb262b64c2888206944b20779008514a3aa6a3b.png
I used the same picks for both “Normal” entries.
I like the Bears with Justin Fields back against a vulnerable Lions defense. Detroit should put up points, but I think the Bears keep up.
I know the Dolphins blow out bad teams, but this line is huge, and the Raiders have shown a pulse of late. Plus, playing in Miami in mid-November isn’t quite the same as going there in early September.
The Giants are terrible, but Danny DeVito is getting experience, the Team just had a heartbreaking loss, the Giants played for 60 minutes last week, and nine is enough points.
The Jaguars are a hunch pick. They’re mediocre, but I like a buy-low off a blowout.
The Niners seem like the kind of team that will work the Buccaneers. Baker Mayfield is okay, but the defense will be too much for him.
https://image.nostr.build/508cd9ca0049c279ae553698a7612b8ab219bd1902abbdee70cd5813e20b2e05.png
Only two picks differ here: the Jets and the Chiefs.
The Bills are off balance, and the Jets typically show up and play hard. I’ll take seven points.
I like the Chiefs laying less than three at home. Just a hunch Andy Reid will have his team ready after the bye.

2023-11-17 13:09:25

You might have heard sideline reporter Charissa Thompson admitted on a podcast that sometimes she flat out made up reports about what coaches said at halftime because often coaches had no interest in speaking to her during a game.
There was a predictable outcry from the pearl clutchers:
https://image.nostr.build/46a72b6600c0bb51dbec2314b2fadd17219a4b73168d605480d737310412b0ea.png
https://image.nostr.build/17adeefd0cda8e75bda54f621af67660d9441ea6efcbec5a043be42c7b76834f.png
https://image.nostr.build/8c3b7108ea3d47fa64804fd0140108d1c05e05adb6bfbb478c160fec748a45cd.png
https://image.nostr.build/da7703b30548ae0cc19c3514ffb9c35593812458d3823d7aa7022bd808751e23.png
Some midwits even tried to bring race into it!
https://image.nostr.build/337d4bff567f5ff206a539748b2e1b15c70b63fa83a4ad9a77bc306193c718f4.png
My take is you should have a code of journalistic ethics when you are journalist — so many for the last 10 years have not when the stakes were infinity higher — and none of these Karens made a peep. Were they calling out Rachel Maddow for lying about the efficacy of the mRNA shot? Any blowback for Mina Kimes after unjustly impugning Aaron Rodgers’ character while it was she who was utterly misinformed?
But Thompson was doing a bullshit job that only exists because network execs and league officals thought it would be a good idea to have coaches use some of their scarce time between halves to speak, against their will, on camera. So they mouth inane truisms that add nothing of value.
To her credit, Thompson knew this was the case and just supplied the truisms for them which was a win/win. Now the coach could focus on second-half prep, and she was spared the unpleasant task of wringing something out of them. Neither the audience nor the executives were any the wiser.
If you have a real job, do it earnestly and with integrity. But when you see something is obviously fake and stupid, go ahead and break the rules. Those feigning outrage on account of their trust being broken sound ridiculous. You really put stock in Coach X saying: “we need to tackle better and take care of the ball?”

2023-11-15 17:37:39

I got bounced from my home league pool on the Bengals last week. I was initially on the Seahawks, but changed my mind because I trusted Joe Burrow more than Geno Smith. I’m not too upset about because the Bengals lost on a last-second field goal, while the Seahawks won on one. While it really doesn’t matter *how* you lose, the likelihood is you’re going to lose, and it’s better if losing isn’t on account of some truly idiotic presumptions.
It’s kind of like the difference between dying because a meteor hit the earth, and dying because you were drunk and decided it was a good idea to jump into the swimming pool from the roof. Either way, you’re dead, but the former is easier to swallow. At least for me.
In any event, I took Cincy in my home pool also in part because I knew everyone else would be on the Cowboys (they were available to everyone), and so there was no pot-odds consideration between them and the Seahawks, i.e., I would be the only one on either team.
But in my offshore-book pools the Seahawks were far less owned, so I took them in my two remaining ones and still have a dog in this fight. Which is the only reason I’m writing this column as I won’t be writing any columns after I’m dead. (That pool is down to about 800 people for $100K, i.e., I have about $120 in equity which is only a little more than the $100 buy-in for my home pool Week 1.)
In any event, let’s take a look at Week 11:
https://image.nostr.build/b7025cc0d0d0fb60782fc0b60d46b0bca72991f59d787bd76604609b861eb633.png
The Football Team is the most popular given they’re playing the Midgets but keep in mind the Midgets beat them the first time around, albeit with Tyrod Taylor, not Danny DeVito.
The Dolphins, Cowboys and Niners are all similarly large favorites, but lower owned because (a) most people have used them; and (b) most want to save them and use the Team instead. And the Lions (home against the Bears) are also in play.
My lean would be Dallas if you have them — they tend to beat up on bad teams, though they’re better at home. The Dolphins also beat up on bad teams, but they’re a little soft. I could see the Dolphins winning by 40, or getting run over by Josh Jacobs. The Team should handle the Giants but while they’re scrappy and play good teams tough sometimes, they also can lose to anyone.
The 49ers are back on track after three losses, and they should handle a scrappy Tampa team that’s lacks upside. The Lions are good, but their defense has fallen off of late, and Justin Fields gives the Bears a puncher’s chance.
I would avoid the Texans, who lost to the Panthers, against the Kyler Murray Cardinals.
Bottom line it’s Cowboys (who you’ve used), and then probably the Niners (who you’ve also used), then a coin flip between the Dolphins and Football Team. I’d have the Lions a little behind both and I’m not touching the Texans.

2023-11-05 21:41:59

bad sneak by Saints with Carr -- especially bad ATS and for survivor

2023-10-30 00:24:05

Week 8 Observations
I’m on vacation, writing this from a hotel in Spain. For God knows what reason, Heather arranged a 30-mile bike ride with some friends in the morning, and the place where we’re starting the ride is an hour drive away. So I have to write this now or never, before the second wave of games is even over.
The Giants season was already over, but I hate the Jets, and I really wanted the Giants to win that game. Brian Daboll blew it, though it wasn’t his fault Graham Gano shanked a 35-yard field goal, even though I would have gone for it on 4th-and-1 instead. (That was a 50/50 call.)
The really bad decision was winning the coin toss and choosing to receive in overtime. What the fuck was he thinking? His third-string QB, Danny Devito, wasn’t capable of a forward pass, and you want to receive the ball, the only upside of which is being able to win with a TD after a long drive you have to mount solely on the ground while the Jets know you’re running every play? Why not elect to kick off, play defense where you have the advantage, receive a punt and play for a game-winning field-goal? Just senseless to receive in that situation.
I nearly threw my laptop against the wall after the Adoree’ Jackson PI set up the game-winning FG for the Jets.
Kayvon Thibodeaux looked like Lawrence Taylor out there. It was the one silver lining of the game.
Darren Waller inconsiderately aggravated his hamstring injury early in the game, sidling me with a zero in three leagues. Draft players with the decency to get injured in the fourth quarter. To Waller’s credit he still led the Giants in receiving with four yards.
Gano missed another FG, a 47-yarder on 4th-and-1, attempted before Tyrod Taylor got hurt. You don’t try a 47-yarder on 4th-and-1.
Garrett Wilson is a top-five real-life NFL receiver. He’s right there with Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown and Ja’Marr Chase. He just needs a quarterback.
Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are showing up big time for me after my Primetime team is probably drawing dead. I’ve made the right call the last few weeks after the debacle where I subbed out Brock Purdy for Dak at the last second. Now I don’t look at any rankings and just go by my own instincts. Too little, too late, though.
I’ve complained about my Travis Etienne for Amari Cooper and (TE) Taysom Hill trade in the RotoWire keeper league, but (a) Hill has been very good lately; and (b) my team sucks, so I moved Cooper, Terry McLaurin, Joe Mixon and Kirk Cousins (who got hurt today) for Jonathan Taylor and three scrubs. I probably lost that trade too, but my team isn’t in it this year, and no one except Jake Letarski (the guy who made the deal with me) was offering me anyone good for my aging stars. You have people offering you scrubs and draft picks, thinking you’re just going to hand them four starters in a 14-team league, so I was happy to get one serious building block for them. Taylor is all the way back now too.
I’ve been good against the spread of late — so-so, so far this week — because I’ve been able to feel the inflection points of teams. I had the Pats +9.5 initially but switched them out for the Panthers +3 at the last minute. I had liked the Texans initially, but felt they might overlook the winless Panthers, and the Panthers would be able to hang with an upstart. Forget about the net-adusted-YPP nonsense — so few people have an edge there — and focus on the ebbs and flows, the pulse. It’s possible to get a read on it.
The Football Team had the cover in good order, blew it, then heroically rallied for the push.
If the injuries to Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford and even Kenny Pickett are serious, that’s a lot of top receivers left without their quarterbacks.
AJ Brown got his sixth-straight 125-yard game, the first time that’s ever happened. He’s a monster and made an amazing one-handed TD grab in the game too. But picking 125-yards as the benchmark is pretty arbitrary. Who has the record for most consecutive 75-yard games? What about 78?
The Saints have a lot of weapons on offense, but they spread it around, and they do so even at QB with Hill coming in so much near the goal line.
As usual, the long-distance kicking this week was bananas. Joey Slye kicked a 56-yard FG at the end of the first half, but it was called back on a false-start penalty, so he drilled a 61-yarder instead. Cowboys rookie kicker Brandon Aubrey kicked a 58-yarder and Harrison Butker hit one from 56. I’m the sucker who drafted the original Justin Tucker, but now it’s everyone in the league, except him (and the Giants’ Gano.)
I have the Chargers in Survivor tonight in my home pool (wanted the Lions, but didn’t realize I had already used them), so wish me luck. With the Chargers, you always need — and rarely get — it.

2023-10-29 21:30:10

seriously, if your team cannot complete a forward pass, and the other team has a terrible offense, why would you choose to receive?

2023-10-29 21:16:47

Truly a retard to attempt the FG there.

2023-10-19 17:03:10

whenever my team (the Yankees) isn't in the playoffs, I just root for the worst World Series matchup for the league from a marketing perspective. Diamondbacks-Rangers would be ideal.

2023-10-03 20:25:51

Last week was better, though the Giants +1.5 wasn’t the ideal close to the slate. I went 3-2 on the Normal entries and 3-1-1 on the Ugly one. I also went 11-5 in my home picking pool.
Here are my lines for this week:
https://image.nostr.build/ff4aefbc2d6d4115d5d51def892b5fc28d919f655aa03c4c511fc1b861b9340b.png
The games I’m farthest apart on guess-wise are the Texans-Falcons (3.5), but you can see that’s around the zero and doesn’t cross the key number of 3, the Saints-Pats (same) and Eagles-Rams (that’s a meaningful difference.) I knew roughly what the Giants-Dolphins would be, but if Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley are back, I think that’s my best bet, and I don’t mean to be a homer about it.
The Daniel Jones criticism on Twitter today was just stupid. Patrick Mahomes or peak Tom Brady would have gotten annihilated under those conditions too. Just severe recency bias and vitriol toward a guy who got paid before he’s proved much.
I’m also fading the Dolphins in Survivor, as they’re exactly the type of finesse team you want when the offensive line (even with Thomas back) is so shaky. Then again, I thought that about the Seahawks, who are not exactly the Steel Curtain, last week.
I thought the Chiefs would be bigger favorites, but maybe the market’s right here as the Vikings are desperate and can shoot it out with anyone.

2023-10-01 21:37:21

realized today that I should stop expecting things to go right. The NFL is a big jumble of uncertainty and disaster. This expectation that it conform to my will is really taxing.

2023-10-01 21:36:01

I post a lot early in the games, then the frustration of what I'm seeing frustrates me and I sour on it.

2023-10-01 19:59:55

Total in MIA/BUF should have been 100

2023-09-17 23:56:26

would it kill the Giants to play any defense whatsoever?

2023-09-17 20:11:36

reminder to compare setting fantasy football lineups to the game in Squid Game where they have to guess which glass panel to step on. Each one is only 50/50, but the chances you fall through are almost 100 percent over the course of it.

2023-09-17 20:10:00

Bills just stuffing the run

2023-09-04 12:10:02

I did this from a coffee shop with a borrowed pen on a paper place-mat on the way back from getting our impossible-to-copy ancient house keys copied. Some of my lines/guesses were way off from the real ones.
It’s not just that I was way off, it’s that I was way off almost uniformly in the same direction — so many of my lines (and guesses) were way too high. Normally, I feel like I have the opposite problem Week 1 as I overestimate the uncertainly after a long offseason, and the market prices teams more or less like the prior year. But here we are in 2023, and it’s like the market got woke to the idea of “Who the hell knows, we haven’t seen a game in seven months!”
When you’re this far off, you should question your leans more. Not that the market is the be-all, end-all like some seem to believe, but you shouldn’t be so far afoul of it across the board.
Accordingly, I might not only ignore my lines here, but actively go the other way in some cases, say taking the Steelers getting only 2.5 at home against the Niners which seems crazy, but now somehow feels right. The Rams getting only 5.5 without Cooper Kupp is another I might use.
I will stick with my Browns lean as my guessed line was dead on there. And the Giants should be a pick ‘em at home against the Cowboys. The Giants moneyline looks good to me, in fact.
In any event, it’s only Monday morning, so I have time to think these over before I commit.
https://cdn.nostr.build/i/fcfa4a01cfe2ab125aa2b70875d56dea7968e15ab96d6d5e26f3131beacb9e19.png

2023-08-27 15:06:11

Last year it was worth paying up for quarterbacks, but this year, I'm almost always willing to wait. The price of the top two tiers is higher than ever, and there are many cheap ones with upside.