New article from Jameson Lopp (npub17u5…t4tp) that introduces a new tool, the Bitcoin Confirmation Risk Calculator. By providing it a percentage of hashrate a pool has, it tells you the likelihood the pool can successfully execute a reorg.
https://blog.lopp.net/how-many-bitcoin-confirmations-is-enough/
For example, with 35% of the hashrate, Foundry has a 73% chance of successfully executing a reorg for a block with 1 confirmation.
For a block with 6 confirmations, it has a 28% chance!! That is so wild to me, I thought the percentage would be much lower.
satsie / pond nugget
npub1fh…3nzcu
2023-02-18 17:00:22
Author Public Key
npub1fhmmgwe6fk6tn83ahttt6ruyyfnjdm7k8tn7qflert9ajx6dhfyqf3nzcuPublished at
2023-02-18 17:00:22Event JSON
{
"id": "7d88b83cdfaa9382c80f8341e7f478102e90e329db37c028266d227a98a1399e",
"pubkey": "4df7b43b3a4db4b99e3dbad6bd0f84226726efd63ae7e027f91acbd91b4dba48",
"created_at": 1676736022,
"kind": 1,
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"content": "New article from #[0] that introduces a new tool, the Bitcoin Confirmation Risk Calculator. By providing it a percentage of hashrate a pool has, it tells you the likelihood the pool can successfully execute a reorg.\n\nhttps://blog.lopp.net/how-many-bitcoin-confirmations-is-enough/\n\nFor example, with 35% of the hashrate, Foundry has a 73% chance of successfully executing a reorg for a block with 1 confirmation.\n\nFor a block with 6 confirmations, it has a 28% chance!! That is so wild to me, I thought the percentage would be much lower.",
"sig": "838b2b7312492e18bf11a0d5d6e9b67d25810e1c928d06130adf49e581b99d19e60a47cd9c59b8c919e0b0aca07310e2466a0dd01f4720f34fcc77a7e248ee4e"
}