Peaceful dispute resolution in high complexity, chaotic, low trust systems is a most interesting study subject.
The game theory is bonkers... and yet, it has many historical precedents... The Holy Roman Empire, Renaissance Italy, Greek City states... are all worthy of study.
Achieving peace is never about "who is right" because you can bet your ass that each side has a different version of the truth and won't agree on that.
It's about "we will both lose more by continuing to fight than finding a way to live together".
The most extreme case is ofc the MAD of nuclear war.
But there are many degrees of the same.
Think post WWII German-French relations or the Congress of Vienna after the Napoleonic wars.
A very medieval method was to mix peace treaties with marriage. The Hapsburg motto:
'ALII BELLA GERUNT, TU FELIX AUSTRIA NUBE'
Is the medieval equivalent of "make love, not war"
Hostage exchange, peace marriage, external guarantors, mixed law enforcement, DMZs, neutral arbitrators, etc, etc... there are many, many peacemaking and peace-keeping techniques with a long track record.
When trust is very low, there is also the gradual, incremental approach to build trust. After several steps of increasing trust you can start building more long lasting agreements.
1. Ceasefire
2. Hostage exchange
3. Buffer zones (extend ceasefire)
4. Negotiations (neutral ground)
5. Peace Treaty
6. Guarantees
7. Coordinated disarmament
8. Economic cooperation
9. Social integration
10. Long lasting peace
flix / Flix
npub1vxz…78px
2024-04-22 15:44:05
Author Public Key
npub1vxz5ja46rffch8076xcalx6zu4mqy7gwjd2vtxy3heanwy7mvd7qqq78pxPublished at
2024-04-22 15:44:05Event JSON
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"content": "Peaceful dispute resolution in high complexity, chaotic, low trust systems is a most interesting study subject.\n\nThe game theory is bonkers... and yet, it has many historical precedents... The Holy Roman Empire, Renaissance Italy, Greek City states... are all worthy of study.\n\nAchieving peace is never about \"who is right\" because you can bet your ass that each side has a different version of the truth and won't agree on that.\n\nIt's about \"we will both lose more by continuing to fight than finding a way to live together\".\n\nThe most extreme case is ofc the MAD of nuclear war.\n\nBut there are many degrees of the same.\n\nThink post WWII German-French relations or the Congress of Vienna after the Napoleonic wars.\n\nA very medieval method was to mix peace treaties with marriage. The Hapsburg motto: \n\n'ALII BELLA GERUNT, TU FELIX AUSTRIA NUBE'\n\nIs the medieval equivalent of \"make love, not war\"\n\nHostage exchange, peace marriage, external guarantors, mixed law enforcement, DMZs, neutral arbitrators, etc, etc... there are many, many peacemaking and peace-keeping techniques with a long track record.\n\nWhen trust is very low, there is also the gradual, incremental approach to build trust. After several steps of increasing trust you can start building more long lasting agreements.\n\n1. Ceasefire \n2. Hostage exchange\n3. Buffer zones (extend ceasefire)\n4. Negotiations (neutral ground)\n5. Peace Treaty\n6. Guarantees\n7. Coordinated disarmament\n8. Economic cooperation\n9. Social integration\n10. Long lasting peace",
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