hh on Nostr: There is zero chance that China invades Taiwan, regardless. First, China (as in the ...

There is zero chance that China invades Taiwan, regardless.

First, China (as in the dictator Xi and the CCP) doesn't need to invade Taiwan. It already controls its economy, all of its major companies, all of its elites and even a big chunk of the population's opinion.

Second, it would be a massive military defeat. People have the wrong impression about the military status quo in the Taiwan Straits and the sort of amphibious invasion the would be required. Taiwan is extremely defensible and the Taiwanese are extremely entreched. China could completely level the island with bombs, yes. But as the successive military failures of the US have proven, that doesn't put boots on the ground and create a new regime.

In short, China would basically bankrupt itself and get itself into a decades long mess for nothing.

For the communists, the best (the only) path is to keep the status quo as it is now, which allows them to agitate with the ultranationalist propaganda now and then, and gives them access to what really counts, namely Taiwan's economic and industrial apparatus, and to its political elites.