Not great in the near term. The combination of the Fed doing QT, the Treasury shifting towards longer-duration bond issuance, and China running tight fiscal policy, are all liquidity negative.
I think we grind for a while until something snaps in the Treasury market or something adjacent, and then we do the next leg up in liquidity.
Liquidity bottomed back in Oct 2022 right after 1) the UK bond market outright broke and 2) the US bond market was really wobbly (bad liquidity, high volatility). That was fixed by the Treasury draining its cash account and shortening the duration of its bond issuance.
LynAlden / Lyn Alden
npub1a2…cw83a
2023-08-20 09:29:02
in reply to nevent1q…jcm7
Author Public Key
npub1a2cww4kn9wqte4ry70vyfwqyqvpswksna27rtxd8vty6c74era8sdcw83aPublished at
2023-08-20 09:29:02Event JSON
{
"id": "111fc78d797bfbb03e58a2131f94cd29620b06786d8918c14957ea7208cde317",
"pubkey": "eab0e756d32b80bcd464f3d844b8040303075a13eabc3599a762c9ac7ab91f4f",
"created_at": 1692516542,
"kind": 1,
"tags": [
[
"e",
"d932a8e3b4e70aa17a01ecc18e47176e658a1b2aee841f1e20353ca395d5c7fa",
""
],
[
"e",
"58f45dad1e20c78afc8cd54b5392f9feac7382665a7e1ad3469f453a07a7053c"
],
[
"p",
"9e93fb0012a6177faddf2fd324fb61eafbe8b142b31c5e89fd85bfafd12483b6"
]
],
"content": "Not great in the near term. The combination of the Fed doing QT, the Treasury shifting towards longer-duration bond issuance, and China running tight fiscal policy, are all liquidity negative.\n\nI think we grind for a while until something snaps in the Treasury market or something adjacent, and then we do the next leg up in liquidity.\n\nLiquidity bottomed back in Oct 2022 right after 1) the UK bond market outright broke and 2) the US bond market was really wobbly (bad liquidity, high volatility). That was fixed by the Treasury draining its cash account and shortening the duration of its bond issuance.",
"sig": "93bef2db09fd5c546d2f226c33165bd0cdf4c5300b5d8796c323c700d7ace4876cdc1a2dd85f6cbf4c331eb56b1d2e280fc85227150a926281f03bdb2c5c8c83"
}