TLT ETF: 4 Reasons To Remain Bullish (NASDAQ:TLT)
==========
The article discusses four reasons to remain bullish on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). The author, Johnny Zhang, CFA, highlights that while TLT may face near-term volatility due to inflation and economic data, the long-term trajectory could be impacted by treasuries issuance and demand. Zhang points out that inflation is slowing down, with the Federal Reserve projecting only one rate cut in 2024 if inflation continues trending toward 2%. Recent economic data, such as job numbers and consumer sentiment, shows potential weakening, which could benefit TLT in a hard landing scenario. Zhang also mentions the average lag between the first yield curve inversion and a recession, which ranges from 6 to 24 months, often coinciding with the peak of the equity market. If AI-driven growth doesn't strongly boost long-term U.S. economic expansion, TLT could benefit from a severe equity market selloff from earnings slowing next year. The article also includes the viewpoint of Torsten Asmus, who agrees that TLT may experience near-term volatility but believes TLT's price actions in the near term are primarily driven by inflation expectations and economic data. Asmus reiterates his bullish view on TLT for four reasons: slowing inflation, softening employment data, the continued yield curve inversion, and increasing uncorrelated or hedging benefits from the equity market compared to a year ago. Asmus also discusses the decision between TLT and Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (VCLT), highlighting the potential downside risks for VCLT due to widening credit spreads and potential macro risks. The article concludes by mentioning the technical analysis, which indicates a bearish trend for TLT but suggests that maintaining levels above certain moving averages could be an opportune time to consider adding TLT to a portfolio.
#Tlt #Nasdaq:tlt #Ishares20+YearTreasuryBondEtf #Inflation #EconomicData #TreasuriesIssuance #Demand #FederalReserve #RateCut #JobNumbers #ConsumerSentiment #YieldCurveInversion #EquityMarket #AidrivenGrowth #SevereSelloff #EarningsSlowdown #VanguardLongtermCorporateBondIndexFundEtfShares #Vclt #CreditSpreads #MacroRisks #TechnicalAnalysis
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4699819-tlt-4-reasons-to-remain-bullish
Seeking Alpha /
npub1qpf…damf
2024-06-18 16:18:05
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2024-06-18 16:18:05Event JSON
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"content": "TLT ETF: 4 Reasons To Remain Bullish (NASDAQ:TLT)\n==========\n\nThe article discusses four reasons to remain bullish on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). The author, Johnny Zhang, CFA, highlights that while TLT may face near-term volatility due to inflation and economic data, the long-term trajectory could be impacted by treasuries issuance and demand. Zhang points out that inflation is slowing down, with the Federal Reserve projecting only one rate cut in 2024 if inflation continues trending toward 2%. Recent economic data, such as job numbers and consumer sentiment, shows potential weakening, which could benefit TLT in a hard landing scenario. Zhang also mentions the average lag between the first yield curve inversion and a recession, which ranges from 6 to 24 months, often coinciding with the peak of the equity market. If AI-driven growth doesn't strongly boost long-term U.S. economic expansion, TLT could benefit from a severe equity market selloff from earnings slowing next year. The article also includes the viewpoint of Torsten Asmus, who agrees that TLT may experience near-term volatility but believes TLT's price actions in the near term are primarily driven by inflation expectations and economic data. Asmus reiterates his bullish view on TLT for four reasons: slowing inflation, softening employment data, the continued yield curve inversion, and increasing uncorrelated or hedging benefits from the equity market compared to a year ago. Asmus also discusses the decision between TLT and Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (VCLT), highlighting the potential downside risks for VCLT due to widening credit spreads and potential macro risks. The article concludes by mentioning the technical analysis, which indicates a bearish trend for TLT but suggests that maintaining levels above certain moving averages could be an opportune time to consider adding TLT to a portfolio.\n\n#Tlt #Nasdaq:tlt #Ishares20+YearTreasuryBondEtf #Inflation #EconomicData #TreasuriesIssuance #Demand #FederalReserve #RateCut #JobNumbers #ConsumerSentiment #YieldCurveInversion #EquityMarket #AidrivenGrowth #SevereSelloff #EarningsSlowdown #VanguardLongtermCorporateBondIndexFundEtfShares #Vclt #CreditSpreads #MacroRisks #TechnicalAnalysis\n\nhttps://seekingalpha.com/article/4699819-tlt-4-reasons-to-remain-bullish",
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