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2024-06-23 15:33:43

Fast-fashion firm Shein may abandon London IPO - report
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Chinese fast-fashion platform Shein may abandon its initial public offering (IPO) in London due to recent criticisms and pressure from the Chinese government. The retailer has faced criticism in the UK and the US over its dependence on third-party suppliers and allegations of forced labor. Some major shareholders are reportedly asking Shein to consider buying back their shares. Shein had been preparing to file a prospectus for a £50 billion London listing this month. The company had previously considered switching its IPO from New York to London due to regulatory issues. Shein confidentially filed for an IPO in the US in November. The fast-fashion firm is facing increased competition from Pinduoduo's Temu.
#Shein #Ipo #London #ChineseGovernment #ForcedLabor #Pinduoduo
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4118181-fast-fashion-firm-shein-may-abandon-london-ipo-report

2024-06-22 20:13:33

Ethereum ETFs imminent after amended S-1s (Cryptocurrency:ETH-USD)
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Seven financial firms, including BlackRock, Templeton, and VanEck, have amended their S-1 filings for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to Ethereum. The amended filings mark a key step towards launching the first set of ETFs tied to the second-largest cryptocurrency. Franklin Templeton and VanEck have announced their ETF fees at 0.19% and 0.20%, respectively. The SEC cleared Ethereum ETFs in May in response to applications from firms including Nasdaq, NYSE, and Cboe Global Markets. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggests that the SEC could potentially approve the launch as early as July 2.
#Ethereum #Etfs #Cryptocurrency #Blackrock #Templeton #Vaneck #Sec
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4118152-ethereum-etfs-imminent-amended-s-1s

2024-06-22 11:55:28

Crocs' Stock Is Still Cheap
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Crocs continues setting new quarterly revenue records and sustaining unparalleled profitability. The macro environment is improving for Crocs, as rising real wages across the developed world will likely boost discretionary spending. The stock is almost 40% undervalued according to valuation analysis. The upcoming quarterly earnings release is scheduled on August 6, with positive consensus sentiment. The stock has rallied by 66% YTD and is still attractively valued. The business's fair value is estimated to be $13.3 billion, almost 40% higher than the current market cap. The stock is still a 'Strong Buy'.
#Crocs #Crox #Stock #Valuation #Earnings #Revenue #Profitability #MacroEnvironment #DiscretionarySpending
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700491-crocs-stock-still-cheap

2024-06-22 02:13:51

Nike Earnings Preview: Fiscal '25 Guidance Is All That Matters
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Nike is set to report its fiscal Q4 '24 earnings on June 27th. Sell-side consensus expects $0.84 in earnings per share, $1.54 billion in operating income, and $12.85 billion in revenue. Nike has struggled since the COVID-19 pandemic, with revenue growth at +5%, operating income growth at -8%, and EPS growth at -1% since November 2021. The company's fiscal '25 guidance will be critical, as analysts expect just 1% revenue growth for both fiscal '24 and '25. Nike's stock has been basing in the high $80s, low $90s since April. The stock will clear congestion if it can trade up and through $100, with room to run until the 50-month moving average at $120-121 per share. However, concerns about the brand's obsolescence persist, and Nike's reporting of earnings without the cash flow statement is seen as outdated.
#Nike #Earnings #FiscalGuidance #StockPerformance
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700458-nike-earnings-preview-fiscal-25-guidance-all-that-matters

2024-06-21 20:20:46

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2024-06-21 20:20:35

Apple delays release of AI features in EU due to regulations: report
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Apple Inc. (AAPL) is delaying the release of several of its artificial intelligence features in the European Union (EU) due to the Digital Markets Act (DMA), according to a report by Bloomberg. The delayed features include Apple Intelligence, iPhone Mirroring, and SharePlay Screen Sharing. Apple expressed concerns that the interoperability requirements of the DMA could compromise the integrity of its products and risk user privacy and data security. The DMA has been targeting U.S. big tech companies, with Meta Platforms and Google also facing scrutiny and making changes to comply with regulations. The impact of the delay on EU users of Apple Intelligence is unknown. The report was published on Jun. 21, 2024, at 1:29 PM ET by Seeking Alpha.
#Apple #Ai #EuRegulations #DigitalMarketsAct #Interoperability #UserPrivacy #DataSecurity #MetaPlatforms #Google
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4118005-apple-delays-release-of-ai-features-in-eu-due-to-regulations-report

2024-06-21 20:02:42

Why Super Micro Is Winning In AI Servers, Buy
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Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) is capitalizing on the AI market with high-performance servers and liquid cooling technology, showing strong financial performance and projected future growth. The company's strategic partnerships with AI chipmakers and focus on AI GPU servers position it as a leader in the data center industry. SMCI's management is making sound financial decisions, with a low debt capital structure and funding growth initiatives that are signals of a company in growth mode. However, employee reviews suggest areas of improvement in company culture, which could impact long-term success. SMCI's open architecture and focus on efficient liquid cooling give it a competitive edge in the server market. The stock is currently trading at a reasonable valuation and is projected to have strong future growth. Potential risks include competition from established players, dependence on a limited number of large hyperscalers, technological advancements, and economic downturns.
#SuperMicroComputer,Inc #Smci #AiServers #DataCenterIndustry #LiquidCoolingTechnology #StrategicPartnerships #AiChipmakers #ServerMarket #CompanyCulture #FinancialPerformance #GrowthInitiatives
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700406-supermicro-winning-in-ai-servers-buy

2024-06-21 19:18:11

Top U.S. regulators find shortcomings in living wills of JPMorgan, BofA, Goldman, Citi
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The Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. have identified shortcomings in the living will plans of JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup. Living will plans are detailed plans for banks to wind themselves down in case of catastrophic failure. The regulators did not find weaknesses in the plans from Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, State Street, and Bank of New York Mellon. The banks with identified shortcomings must address them in fresh resolution plans due by July 1, 2025. Citigroup's living will plan was found to be deficient by the FDIC board. The regulators' findings do not result in penalties for the banks.
#Banking #Regulation #JpmorganChase #GoldmanSachs #BankOfAmerica #Citigroup #WellsFargo #MorganStanley #StateStreet #BankOfNewYorkMellon #Fdic #FederalReserve
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4117992-top-us-regulators-find-shortcomings-in-living-wills-of-jpmorgan-bofa-goldman-citi

2024-06-21 16:28:37

U.S. PMI Composite unexpectedly ticks up in flash June print
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The S&P Global U.S. PMI Composite inched up to [value] in June (flash estimate), vs. 53.5 expected, from 54.5 in May. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated that the early PMI data signal the fastest economic expansion for over two years in June, hinting at an encouragingly robust end to the second quarter while at the same time inflation pressures have cooled. The expansion is being supported by an ongoing recovery in manufacturing, which so far this year is enjoying its best growth spell for two years. The Manufacturing PMI was [value] vs. 51.0 consensus and 51.3 prior, while the Services PMI was [value] vs. 53.4 consensus and 54.8 prior.
#UsPmiComposite #EconomicExpansion #Manufacturing #Services #InflationPressures
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4117936-us-pmi-composite-ticks-up-in-flash-june-print

2024-06-21 11:37:19

SP500: Why The Next Decade Might Underwhelm Investors
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The S&P 500 index is currently overvalued, with its P/E and CAPE ratios significantly above historical averages, suggesting limited future returns and heightened risk. There are increasing signs of economic weakness, including rising unemployment, stagnating retail sales, and increasing credit card delinquencies, indicating potential recession risks. The market's recent gains are heavily reliant on a few large tech stocks like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Amazon, which raises concerns about the sustainability of the broader market rally. The S&P 500 index has outperformed most major markets over the past decade, but valuations are mean-reversing, and future returns are expected to be less than 5%. The U.S. P/E multiple is more than two standard deviations above its 20-year average. The cyclically adjusted P/E ratio (CAPE) is close to 35x, suggesting average returns over the coming decade will be less than 5%. Retail sales are stagnating, credit card delinquencies are rising, and unemployment is trending higher, indicating potential recession risks. Retail investors and non-profit organizations have a near record-high percentage of their assets in corporate equities. The market rally is increasingly dependent on a few tech stocks, while other sectors are underperforming. The S&P 500 index has an unattractive risk/reward profile, and investors are likely to be disappointed with future returns. The article was written by a fin-tech startup leveraging machine learning technology to discover investing opportunities and generate growth-optimal portfolios.
#S&p500 #StockMarket #Investing #Valuations #EconomicWeakness #TechStocks #RecessionRisks #RetailSales #CreditCardDelinquencies #Unemployment #Risk/reward
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700303-sp500-why-next-decade-might-underwhelm-investors

2024-06-21 11:10:33

2024-06-21 10:15:37

Lassonde Industries to buy U.S.-based Summer Garden Food Manufacturing
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Lassonde Industries (LAS.A:CA) is set to acquire The Zidian Group, which operates Summer Garden Food Manufacturing, for $235 million. An additional amount of up to $45 million may be payable over the next three years based on financial targets. Summer Garden manufactures and markets premium sauces and condiments, with a portfolio of approximately 250 products sold through over 20,000 locations. The deal is expected to close within 30 to 45 days.
#LassondeIndustries #SummerGardenFoodManufacturing #Acquisition #SpecialtyFood #Sauces #Condiments
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4117823-lassonde-industries-to-buy-us-based-summer-garden-food-manufacturing

2024-06-20 15:07:32

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index shrinks more than expected in June
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The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for June came in at -1.3, lower than the expected +4.8 and the previous +4.5. Employment showed a reading of -2.5 compared to the previous -7.9, while new orders had a reading of -2.2 compared to the previous -7.9. The price paid index increased to 22.5 from the previous 18.7. The diffusion index for current general activity decreased to 1.3, the slowest reading since January. 24% of firms reported increases in general activity, while 23% reported decreases and 50% reported no change. Future activity indicators remained positive but suggested less widespread expectations for overall growth over the next six months.
#PhillyFedManufacturingIndex #UsEconomy
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4117444-philly-fed-manufacturing-index-shrinks-more-than-expected-in-june

2024-06-20 15:06:26

U.S. Q1 current account widens to $237.6B
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The U.S. current-account deficit widened by $15.9 billion, or 7.2 percent, to $237.6 billion in the first quarter of 2024. The first-quarter deficit was 3.4 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product, up from 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The widening of the current-account deficit mostly reflected an expanded deficit on goods. Exports of goods and services to, and income received from, foreign residents increased $17.0 billion to $1.20 trillion in the first quarter. Imports of goods and services from, and income paid to, foreign residents increased $32.9 billion to $1.44 trillion.
#UsEconomy #CurrentAccount #Trade #GrossDomesticProduct
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4117437-us-q4-current-account

2024-06-20 08:31:56

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#note13q7…lk50

2024-06-20 08:31:45

Tilly's Valuation Keeps Decreasing; Not An Opportunity Without Turnaround Signs (TLYS)
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Tilly's, Inc. (TLYS) reported negative revenue comparables and operating losses in 1Q24. The company's valuation remains uncertain due to ongoing losses and cash reserve consumption. The stock may be attractive for aggressive investors speculating on a turnaround, but caution is advised. The company's CEO was replaced by the founder and Chairman in January. The company made operational changes and reduced promotions. However, it is too early to judge the effectiveness of these initiatives. Tilly's stock has fallen more than 30% since the last article. The valuation would be attractive if the company can return to pre-pandemic profitability levels, but there is no evidence to support that belief. The company has been operating at a loss for over a year and has consumed more than half of its cash reserves. It is difficult to value a business that cannot generate operating cash flows. Shorting the stock is not recommended due to the potential for a turnaround. The article was written by Quipus Capital.
#Tilly's #Tlys #Valuation #Turnaround #OperatingLosses #RevenueComparables #CashReserves
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700072-tillys-valuation-keeps-decreasing-but-the-stock-is-not-an-opportunity-without-signs-of-a-turnaround

2024-06-20 08:22:28

Snowflake Stock: Acceleration In Product Innovation Brings The Company To Forefront Of AI
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Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) beat expectations on both the top and bottom-line this quarter, with its core business remaining strong. The new CEO, Sridhar Ramaswamy, has prioritized customer engagement, execution, and product innovation. Snowflake has seen an acceleration in product innovation, with multiple new features to be available in the second half of the year. The number of customers contributing more than $1 million in product revenue grew 30% from the prior year. Snowflake raised its product revenue guidance for FY2025 and lowered margin guidance due to investment in AI. The company has $4.5 billion in cash and investments on its balance sheet. Snowflake expects product revenues between $805 million and $810 million for FY2Q25. The company is investing in AI initiatives and plans to acquire technology assets and hire key employees from Truera. Snowflake's new CEO is focused on driving execution, customer engagement, and product delivery. The company is on track to bring enterprise AI to its customers and accelerate innovation. Snowflake's net retention rate for FY1Q25 was 128%. The company has seen impressive growth in the number of customers contributing more than $1 million in product revenue. Snowflake has been hiring aggressively to accelerate product innovation. The recent cyber threat attack did not impact the company's systems, but Snowflake plans to enforce multi-factor authentication for all customers. The author reiterates an intrinsic value of $229 for Snowflake and maintains a 1-year price target of $245 and a 3-year price target of $346. Snowflake's recent results and product innovation indicate a positive outlook, although there are near-term risks related to AI investments and the cyber threat attack.
#Snowflake #Ai #ProductInnovation #RevenueGuidance #MarginGuidance #CustomerGrowth #Ceo #Investment #CyberThreatAttack
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700069-snowflake-acceleration-in-product-innovation-brings-company-to-forefront-of-ai

2024-06-20 07:32:39

JBBB ETF: Balancing Risk Versus Reward (BATS:JBBB)
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The article discusses the Janus Henderson B-BBB CLO ETF (JBBB) as a lower risk investment option with a 7.8% yield. It suggests considering risk management in high-yield investments during a potential market correction. CLOs offer high yield with low risk due to structural protections, and JBBB is presented as an attractive risk-reward alternative. The author recommends holding a portion of the investment portfolio in relatively safe, lower-yielding securities. JBBB is described as a cash-like fund that offers a higher yield than most money market funds and carries relatively low risk of capital losses. The article provides an overview of JBBB, its inception date, total net assets, and portfolio characteristics. It also discusses the risks and advantages of CLOs and provides insights into the current state and outlook for senior loans and CLOs. The author concludes by recommending JBBB as a risk-adjusted, better-than-cash alternative for income investors.
#Jbbb #RiskManagement #HighyieldInvestments #Clos #CashlikeFund #Yield #MarketCorrection #Riskreward #JanusHendersonBbbbCloEtf #MoneyMarketFunds #CapitalLosses #InvestmentPortfolio #LowerRiskHoldings #MarketSentiment #Cash #LowRisk #StructuralProtections #DefaultRisk #CreditRisks #DistributionHistory #PortfolioCharacteristics #SeniorLoans #MarketOutlook #IncomeInvestors
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700064-jbbb-etf-balancing-risk-versus-reward

2024-06-20 05:28:32

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#note1p9w…wc7c

2024-06-19 19:13:06

Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
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Andrew Peller Limited (ADWPF) held its Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call on June 19, 2024. The call was led by John Peller, President and CEO, and Paul Dubkowski, CFO. Peller discussed the company's performance over the past year, highlighting the return to historical levels of sales, improved margins, and EBITDA performance. He also mentioned the recent interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada, signaling a new era. Peller reported a solid fourth quarter and fiscal year, with sales revenue slightly up between 1% to 2%. The company saw strong sales performance across all segments and trade channels, with the exception of visitation to their state wineries. Peller also mentioned the impact of the cold temperatures in British Columbia, resulting in widespread bud damage and a less than 5% crop this year. However, the company has implemented government policies to bring in replacement products and expects to manage through the challenge without financial disruption. Peller also discussed the company's real estate in Port Moody and the Ontario retail modernization, expressing optimism and confidence in the opportunities ahead. Dubkowski provided more details on the financial results, including sales growth, margin expansion, and cost savings initiatives. He mentioned ongoing inflationary cost pressures but expressed confidence in the company's cost savings measures and production efficiency programs to positively impact margins in the long term. Dubkowski also discussed sales and admin expenses, EBITDA, interest expense, inventory, and debt levels. The company expects to grow its business significantly in the Ontario market over the next five to 10 years, including in the grocery retail environment, LCBO environment, and through direct-to-consumer and e-commerce trade channels. Peller concluded the call by expressing confidence and optimism for the future, mentioning the company's leadership transition and the potential for M&A opportunities to supplement growth.
#AndrewPellerLimited #Adwpf #Q42024Earnings #FinancialResults
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700031-andrew-peller-limited-adwpf-q4-2024-earnings-call-transcript

2024-06-19 15:40:28

AI And Govt Bond Yields - Onwards And Upwards?
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AI may have important implications for fixed income markets, particularly government bond yields. The impact of AI on interest rates and bond yields depends on the level of productivity growth and the displacement effect on jobs. The conventional view is that AI-driven productivity growth increases the demand for capital, driving real interest rates and government bond yields higher. However, caution is required in drawing inferences from past eras, such as the Goldilocks era. The period of weak productivity growth and low yields from 2007-2020 has been attributed to zero rates 'zombifying' economies and distorting the allocation of capital. The impact of AI on the labor market depends on whether the displacement effect on jobs exceeds the re-instatement effect of new jobs being created. The timing of these effects is crucial, as initial job displacement could lead to lower domestic demand and inflation, potentially forcing a recession. However, in the medium term, higher growth potential could put upward pressure on rates and yields, leading to steeper yield curves. The shape of the yield curve is influenced by factors such as debt/GDP ratios, energy prices, and demographic trends. Overall, the impact of AI on bond yields and curves is complex and subject to various structural crosscurrents.
#Ai #GovernmentBondYields #ProductivityGrowth #InterestRates #LaborMarket #YieldCurves
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700003-ai-and-govt-bond-yields-onwards-and-upwards

2024-06-19 14:17:23

CSX Confirms The Bull Case, As It Remains One Of My Best Dividend Ideas
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CSX Corporation (CSX) remains a top-tier dividend growth stock with a focus on commodities and merchandise. Despite facing headwinds like inflationary pressures, CSX has navigated challenges effectively with diversified revenue streams. CSX continues to impress with its resilience, operational performance, and long-term growth potential, despite recent stock price underperformance. The company confirmed its thesis and revealed key details regarding operating efficiencies and favorable economic trends that could bode well for its valuation. CSX is well-positioned to leverage opportunities from industrial development and reshoring trends, making it one of the best ideas in the dividend growth space.
#CsxCorporation #DividendGrowthStock #Commodities #Merchandise #OperationalPerformance #LongtermGrowthPotential #IndustrialDevelopment #ReshoringTrends
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4699964-csx-confirms-bull-case-remains-one-my-best-dividend-ideas

2024-06-19 11:46:51

Applied Materials: Strong AI Compounder
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Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) has shown strong revenue and EPS growth over the past 10 years, with revenue increasing by 353% from 2014 to 2024. Consensus revenue estimates suggest continued growth, with revenue projected to increase from $26.94 billion in fiscal 2024 to $37.36 billion in fiscal 2028. Despite concerns about semiconductor stocks being cyclical, Applied Materials has demonstrated consistent revenue and EPS growth, with potential for further acceleration due to the AI revolution. The market's opinion on the industry and Applied Materials is beginning to change as semiconductor volume accelerates, driven by advancements in technology and increasing demand driven by the AI revolution. Applied Materials' consensus revenue and EPS estimates have shown consistent upward revisions. The company is expected to see exponential growth across multiple sectors, but the market doesn't seem to agree. Despite the strong growth potential and attractive valuation of Applied Materials, there are several risks to consider, including geopolitical tension surrounding China and potential restrictions on China's access to advanced semiconductor technology. However, the growing demand for AI and the necessary retooling across the semiconductor industry present substantial upside potential for Applied Materials.
#AppliedMaterials #Amat #RevenueGrowth #EpsGrowth #SemiconductorStocks #AiRevolution #ConsensusEstimates #UpwardRevisions #GeopoliticalRisks #China
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4699957-applied-materials-strong-ai-compounder

2024-06-19 01:08:58

Central banks seen buying up more gold in next 12 months - World Gold Council
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According to the World Gold Council, central banks are expected to increase their purchases of gold in the next 12 months. The council's data shows that 29% of central bank respondents anticipate adding more gold to their reserves. More than four in five respondents expect reserve managers to boost global holdings of bullion, marking the highest confidence level on record for the survey. The motivation behind these planned purchases includes a desire to rebalance gold holdings, domestic gold production, and concerns about financial market risks and rising inflation.
#CentralBanks #Gold #WorldGoldCouncil
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4117190-central-banks-seen-buying-up-more-gold-in-next-12-months-world-gold-council

2024-06-18 23:03:42

Consolidation, energy transition and geopolitics among energy drivers: Jennifer Warren
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Jennifer Warren, founder of Concept Elemental, spoke at the Seeking Alpha Investing Summit and highlighted the major energy drivers in the current market. She mentioned that energy transition, reshuffling of supply chains, geopolitics, and consolidation are critical themes that will drive investment. Warren stated that the oil market will see stickiness in both demand and supply, and there will be significant demand for natural gas with regional volatility. Geopolitical tensions could also impact energy markets. She emphasized that markets will have more influence on the trajectory of green energy transition than government policy. Warren stressed the importance of all energy sources and innovations to meet expanding demand.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4117143-consolidation-energy-transition-and-geopolitics-among-energy-drivers-jennifer-warren-at-sa-investing-summit

2024-06-18 21:02:10

Fed's Logan: May CPI is welcome news, but more months of data needed to be confident
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Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan stated that while May's CPI reading is positive, she requires additional months of data to be confident about inflation reaching the Fed's 2% target. Logan expressed concerns about upside risks to inflation and emphasized that the Fed has made significant progress in controlling inflation. She also mentioned that the central bank is in a good position to be patient with monetary policy. Other Fed speakers, such as Musalem and Kugler, have also commented on the need for more data to be confident about rate cuts and the progress made in inflation. Williams stated that recent data is encouraging, but 3% inflation is not the new norm.
#FederalReserve #Inflation #Cpi #MonetaryPolicy
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4117112-fed-logan-may-cpi-more-months-of-data-needed

2024-06-18 20:21:12

Fed's Musalem: It could take quarters of data to be confident of rate cut
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St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem stated that it could take months, and more likely quarters, of data before he is confident that an interest rate cut is appropriate. He mentioned that he would need to observe a period of favorable inflation, moderating demand, and expanding supply before becoming confident. Musalem also noted that if there is evidence of alternative scenarios where inflation becomes stuck above 2% or moves higher, he would support additional firming of monetary policy. He expects some further cooling in the labor market in the coming months and softer retail sales data in May suggests that aggregate demand is growing at a moderate pace in Q2.
#FederalReserve #InterestRateCut #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #LaborMarket #RetailSales
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4117106-fed-musalem-economic-data-rate-cut-outlook

2024-06-18 16:56:42

Fed's Barkin: Inflation moving in right direction; shelter and services 'not quite there'
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Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin stated that the latest inflation reading is encouraging, but shelter and services inflation are not at the desired level. He mentioned that the overall inflation numbers are moving in the right direction. Barkin emphasized the need for sustained and broad disinflation to be more confident in reaching the 2% inflation goal. He also mentioned that the path ahead for policy is unclear due to the choppiness in data. The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released last year is seen as a forecast rather than a promise or commitment. Barkin suggested that one rate cut followed by a hold may be sensible.
#Inflation #FederalReserve #RichmondFederalReserve #SummaryOfEconomicProjections
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4117034-feds-barkin-inflation-shelter-services-rate-cut-outlook

2024-06-18 16:18:17

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#note19a5…5a25

2024-06-18 16:18:05

TLT ETF: 4 Reasons To Remain Bullish (NASDAQ:TLT)
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The article discusses four reasons to remain bullish on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). The author, Johnny Zhang, CFA, highlights that while TLT may face near-term volatility due to inflation and economic data, the long-term trajectory could be impacted by treasuries issuance and demand. Zhang points out that inflation is slowing down, with the Federal Reserve projecting only one rate cut in 2024 if inflation continues trending toward 2%. Recent economic data, such as job numbers and consumer sentiment, shows potential weakening, which could benefit TLT in a hard landing scenario. Zhang also mentions the average lag between the first yield curve inversion and a recession, which ranges from 6 to 24 months, often coinciding with the peak of the equity market. If AI-driven growth doesn't strongly boost long-term U.S. economic expansion, TLT could benefit from a severe equity market selloff from earnings slowing next year. The article also includes the viewpoint of Torsten Asmus, who agrees that TLT may experience near-term volatility but believes TLT's price actions in the near term are primarily driven by inflation expectations and economic data. Asmus reiterates his bullish view on TLT for four reasons: slowing inflation, softening employment data, the continued yield curve inversion, and increasing uncorrelated or hedging benefits from the equity market compared to a year ago. Asmus also discusses the decision between TLT and Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bond Index Fund ETF Shares (VCLT), highlighting the potential downside risks for VCLT due to widening credit spreads and potential macro risks. The article concludes by mentioning the technical analysis, which indicates a bearish trend for TLT but suggests that maintaining levels above certain moving averages could be an opportune time to consider adding TLT to a portfolio.
#Tlt #Nasdaq:tlt #Ishares20+YearTreasuryBondEtf #Inflation #EconomicData #TreasuriesIssuance #Demand #FederalReserve #RateCut #JobNumbers #ConsumerSentiment #YieldCurveInversion #EquityMarket #AidrivenGrowth #SevereSelloff #EarningsSlowdown #VanguardLongtermCorporateBondIndexFundEtfShares #Vclt #CreditSpreads #MacroRisks #TechnicalAnalysis
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4699819-tlt-4-reasons-to-remain-bullish

2024-06-18 16:15:52

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#note16hu…7eh3

2024-06-18 16:15:41

U.S. Industrial production gains 0.9% in May, more than expected
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U.S. industrial production increased by 0.9% in May, surpassing expectations of 0.3% growth. Manufacturing production also rose by 0.9%, exceeding the expected 0.3% growth. Capacity utilization reached 78.7%, higher than the expected 78.6%. The index for consumer goods rose by 1.3%, with all components showing increases except for home electronics. Business equipment saw a small gain of 0.2%, while defense and space equipment rose by 1.0%. The materials market group posted a gain of 0.8%, with non-energy durables and non-energy nondurables both recording increases of around 1%. In May, the index for durable manufacturing rose by 0.6%, the index for nondurable manufacturing increased by 1.1%, and the index for other manufacturing (publishing and logging) moved up by 0.2%.
#UsEconomy #IndustrialProduction #ManufacturingProduction #CapacityUtilization #ConsumerGoods #BusinessEquipment #MaterialsMarketGroup #DurableManufacturing #NondurableManufacturing
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4116957-us-industrial-production-gains-09-in-may-more-than-expected

2024-06-18 12:10:53

Nokia teams up with Google to use AI to help developers create 5G apps
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Nokia is collaborating with Google Cloud to use AI and telecommunication APIs to assist developers in creating 5G applications faster. Nokia's Network as Code platform will run on Google Cloud, utilizing Google's Vertex AI and AI model Gemini 1.5 Pro to enhance the developer experience. The collaboration aims to target industry use cases, starting with the healthcare industry. Nokia's Network as Code platform provides developers with software development kits, network API documentation, and code snippets. The collaboration aims to tap into the greenfield opportunity that 5G networks provide.
#Nokia #Google #Ai #5g #Telecommunication #Apis #Developer #GoogleCloud #VertexAi #Gemini15Pro #HealthcareIndustry #NetworkAsCode
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4116859-nokia-teams-up-with-google-to-use-ai-to-help-developers-create-5g-apps

2024-06-18 10:09:41

Apple ends its buy now, pay later service after partnering with Affirm
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Apple is discontinuing its buy-now-pay-later service that launched in the U.S. in March 2023. It will begin allowing installment loans through third-party app Affirm as well as credit and debit cards later this year. Customers could buy products online for up to $1,000 and pay in four installments with no interest through Apple Pay Later. Apple will focus on new payment options announced at its annual developers' conference. Users across the globe will be able to access installment loans offered through credit and debit cards, as well as lenders, when checking out with Apple Pay. The ability to access installments from credit and debit cards with Apple Pay will roll out starting in Australia with ANZ, in Spain with CaixaBank, in the U.K. with HSBC and Monzo, and in the U.S. with Citi, Synchrony, and issuers with Fiserv. Users in the U.S. will also be able to apply for loans directly through Affirm when they check out with Apple Pay.
#Apple #BuyNowPayLater #Affirm #InstallmentLoans #CreditCards #DebitCards #PaymentOptions
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4116846-apple-ends-its-buy-now-pay-later-service-after-partnering-with-affirm

2024-06-18 09:25:12

Asia-Pac markets rebound tracking tech-led rally on Wall Street, RBA keeps rates steady
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Asia-Pacific equity markets rebounded on Tuesday, as the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% for the fifth straight meeting and tracking a tech-led rally on Wall Street overnight. The Japanese yen stabilized around 157.6 per dollar. The Bank of Japan plans to release a plan on winding down its bond buying program in July. The People's Bank of China left its medium-term lending facility rate unchanged at 2.5%. The BSE crossed the 77,200 mark while the Nifty rose 0.3%. In the US, all three major indexes ended higher, fueled by substantial gains in the tech sector. US stock futures held steady on Tuesday. Key focal points include US retail sales data, weekly jobless claims, and flash purchasing managers' indices. Traders are monitoring upcoming remarks from several Fed officials.
#AsiapacificMarkets #EquityMarkets #TechledRally #ReserveBankOfAustralia #CashRate #JapaneseYen #BankOfJapan #BondBuyingProgram #People'sBankOfChina #MediumtermLendingFacilityRate #Bse #Nifty #UsStockMarket #FederalReserve
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4116841-asia-pacific-markets-rebound-tracking-tech-led-rally-on-wall-street-rba-keeps-rates-steady

2024-06-18 08:05:53

Thailand Joins China In Driving Gold Bull Market
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Thailand, like China, is currently driving up the price of gold by becoming a gold buyer, shedding its long-standing price sensitivity to gold. This shift in the global gold market, with pricing power shifting to the East, could potentially lead to a transformation in the international monetary order. Thailand has been a net importer of gold since November 2023, accumulating gold as a safe haven investment due to geopolitical tensions. The Bank of Thailand has increased its gold reserves nearly threefold since the Great Financial Crisis. Thailand's change in gold buying behavior may be related to the mBridge international payments project, which aims to explore a multi-central bank digital currency (CBDC) platform shared among participating central banks and commercial banks. The mBridge project, coordinated by the BIS Innovation Hub in Hong Kong, could allow for non-dollar trading and storing surpluses in non-dollar assets, contributing to de-dollarization. The gold recycling theory suggests that countries store their surpluses in gold rather than US Treasuries. Russia, Saudi Arabia, and China are all involved in the mBridge project and are actively buying gold, potentially signaling a game changer in the gold industry and the international monetary order.
#Gold #Thailand #China #InternationalMonetaryOrder #GeopoliticalTensions #BankOfThailand #Mbridge #Cbdc #Dedollarization #GoldRecycling
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4699750-thailand-joins-china-in-driving-gold-bull-market

2024-06-18 03:23:18

- reply

#note1p4x…psjt

2024-06-18 03:23:06

Johns Lyng (JLGRF): Sustained Earnings Growth, Strong Reinvestment Point To Undervaluation
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Johns Lyng Group Limited (JLGRF) offers integrated building services in Australia, New Zealand, and the USA. The group provides comprehensive solutions in Insurance & Restoration, Commercial Services, Strata Building & Management, and Disaster Recovery & Management. The company's nascent coverage shows sustained earnings growth and strong reinvestment, indicating undervaluation. In the first half of fiscal 2024, the company experienced strong earnings growth, leading to an upgrade in group revenue by 3.5% and group EBITDA by 5%. The company's trailing GAAP earnings ratio is 34.37, resulting in a GAAP earnings yield of 2.91%. The company has generated $62 million of operating cash flow over the past 12 months, with the majority going into acquisitions. The company's cost of equity is 5.85%, resulting in an expected intrinsic value of $15.48 per share. The company's strong half-year fiscal 2024 results and acquisitions funded by internal cash flow make it a 'Buy' at present.
#JohnsLyngGroupLimited #Jlgrf #EarningsGrowth #Reinvestment #Undervaluation #BuildingServices #Acquisitions
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4699720-johns-lyng-group-sustained-earnings-growth-strong-reinvestment-point-undervaluation

2024-06-17 22:56:45

CALF: Underappreciated Small-Cap ETF Focused On Free Cash Flow (BATS:CALF)
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The Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows 100 ETF (CALF) is an underappreciated small-cap ETF that focuses on free cash flow. Large caps have been outperforming small caps since December 2023, causing trouble for diversified portfolios. High free cash flow firms are also outperforming, primarily among large caps. CALF is currently undervalued and offers diversification from large-cap strategies. It screens the S&P SmallCap 600 for the top 100 companies based on free cash flow yield. CALF has $9.1 billion in assets under management and a PEG ratio under 1. However, its performance has been lackluster, and it faces technical risks. CALF has a low price-to-earnings ratio and a high long-term earnings growth rate, making it attractive. The ETF has a significant allocation to the value style and is associated with economic strength. CALF's technical view is not encouraging, with shares falling below key support and a bearish RSI divergence. There are risks of continued underperformance among small caps and weakness among Consumer Discretionary stocks. CALF is a buy, considering its attractive valuation and long-term potential.
#Calf #SmallcapEtf #FreeCashFlow #Investing #StockMarket
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4699698-calf-under-appreciated-small-cap-factor-etf-focused-free-cash-flow

2024-06-17 20:12:19

Philly Fed President Harker sees one rate cut by end of 2024 as 'appropriate' for policy
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Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker stated that one rate cut by the end of 2024 would be 'appropriate' as the Federal Reserve works to bring down inflation rates to its 2% target. This aligns with the Fed's updated dot-plot, which indicates a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds rate once in 2024. Harker anticipates a slowdown in inflation, employment, and economic activity, but the timing of these moves remains uncertain. He mentioned that the Fed's decision on rate cuts is data-dependent and could result in either two cuts or none for this year. Harker made these remarks at the Global Interdependence Center 42nd Annual Monetary and Trade Conference in Philadelphia. He is not a voter on the Federal Open Market Committee this year.
#FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #EconomicActivity #RateCuts
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4116733-philly-fed-president-harker-sees-one-rate-cut-by-end-of-2024-as-appropriate-for-policy

2024-06-16 20:17:25

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#note1u2n…l9j9

2024-06-16 20:17:14

Federal Reserve is well poised to be patient on rate moves, Kashkari says
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Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari says the Federal Reserve is well poised to keep an eye on economic data and be patient about cutting interest rates. Kashkari stated that more evidence is needed to convince the Fed that inflation is well on its way back down to 2%. The Fed's monetary policymakers have reduced their estimated rate cuts for this year from three to one, and they are looking for more signs of inflation slowing before lowering borrowing costs. Kashkari believes any rate cut would likely come toward the end of the year. Recent data showed that underlying consumer price growth slowed for a second straight month, with the core consumer price index rising 0.2% from April and 3.4% annually, the slowest pace in over three years.
#FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #BankOfMinneapolis #NeelKashkari
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4116506-federal-reserve-is-well-poised-to-be-patient-on-rate-moves-kashkari-says

2024-06-15 08:18:30

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#note1jkh…vs34

2024-06-15 08:18:19

U.S. IPO Weekly Recap: Precision Medicine IPO Tempus AI Posts A Modest Gain In Its Debut
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Precision medicine company Tempus AI priced its IPO at the high end, raising $411 million at a $6.4 billion market cap. The company's Tempus Platform includes proprietary software and data pipelines for personalized therapies. Tempus finished up 9%. Another scheduled IPO, Telix Pharmaceuticals, pulled its $202 million US offering. Two blank check IPOs priced this week: Centurion Acquisition raised $250 million to target the tech sector, and Perceptive Capital Solutions raised $75 million to target healthcare. One nanocap, Nova Minerals, is scheduled to list in the week ahead. Gold exploration company NVA plans to raise $8 million. Street research is expected for one company, and lock-up periods will be expiring for one company. The Renaissance IPO Index was up 5.9% YTD, while the S&P 500 was up 14.7%.
#Ipo #PrecisionMedicine #TempusAi #TelixPharmaceuticals #CenturionAcquisition #PerceptiveCapitalSolutions #NovaMinerals #Nva #RenaissanceIpoIndex #S&p500
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4699385-us-ipo-precision-medicine-ipo-tempus-ai-posts-modest-gain-debut

2024-06-14 21:02:44

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#note1u8q…w394

2024-06-14 21:02:32

Chicago Fed's Goolsbee calls May's inflation report 'very good,' but more data needed
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Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee called May's inflation data 'very good,' but more months of softer readings will be needed before the central bank can claim victory and potentially start easing monetary policy. Goolsbee said that more reports like May's, which came in flat, will help with the Fed's overall confidence on inflation. He emphasized that more progress on inflation is needed before making any decision on a potential rate reduction. Goolsbee also mentioned that the U.S. dollar could see further strength as European countries cut borrowing costs, but a stronger dollar would impact the export-import balance as well as overall employment and inflation. He noted that credit delinquencies have been on the upswing, though not to levels that scream recession. Goolsbee said he would be open to having a discussion on changing the Fed's inflation target, but not until it's achieved.
#FederalReserve #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #AustanGoolsbee
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4116382-chicago-feds-goolsbee-calls-mays-inflation-report-very-good-but-more-data-needed

2024-06-14 19:39:37

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#note1mz2…0erk

2024-06-14 19:39:26

This is why JPM analysts are still long the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan (USD:CNY)
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J.P. Morgan analysts are staying long the U.S. dollar/Chinese Yuan (USD:CNY), according to a Global Asset Allocation report. The U.S. dollar/Chinese Yuan (USD:CNY) continues to stay in the 7.25-7.27 range in recent weeks. The index is up more than 2% year-to-date, and up 0.43% from the previous month. The dividend payout pressure is expected to pick up from June and then peaking in late July. The Central Bank of the People's Republic of China expanded the quota for Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors (QDII) for the first time since the middle of last year. With the U.S. dollar/Chinese Yen (USD:CNY) tracking about 1% below rate differentials, and with geopolitical risks 'still relatively benign,' it may be also in the PBoC's interest to release some pent-up depreciation pressure now, in exchange for greater policy room for FX stability in the future. JPM's three-month call spread: K = 7.25/7.37. Spot ref 7.2663. Cost 45 basis points. Marked at 32 basis points.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4116327-this-is-why-jpm-analysts-are-still-long-the-us-dollarchinese-yuan

2024-06-14 19:08:51

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#note1mz2…0erk

2024-06-14 19:08:40

2024-06-14 18:18:21

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#note1mk3…s3w8

2024-06-14 18:18:10

U.S. easing cycles have not always been easy for Emerging Markets - JPM (NYSEARCA:EEM)
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J.P. Morgan analysts found that U.S. easing monetary cycles historically had negative effects on emerging markets (EEM), resulting in negative equity performance and only modest outperformance to U.S. equities. However, the Federal Reserve cutting rates can be a positive catalyst for emerging markets, including global growth, more possibility of countries easing policies, and less support for the U.S. dollar strength. The J.P. Morgan team forecasts U.S. growth to slow in the third and fourth quarter, with the U.S. monetary easing cycle starting in the fourth quarter. Market consensus suggests 1.4 rate cuts for 2024. Emerging markets equities can offer diversification from U.S. equities, relative growth acceleration, attractive valuation, and macro conditions challenging the U.S. dollar strength. However, U.S. easing cycles have historically resulted in negative impacts and financial accidents for emerging markets equities. Emerging markets had a small average outperformance to MSCI U.S. during Fed easing cycles, while the U.S. dollar index recorded a decline on average.
#UsEasingCycles #EmergingMarkets #JpMorgan #FederalReserve #EquityPerformance #UsEquities #UsGrowth #RateCuts #EmergingMarketsEquities #UsDollarStrength
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4116287-us-easing-cycles-have-not-always-been-easy-for-emerging-markets-jpm

2024-06-14 14:11:49

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#note1306…dn2w

2024-06-14 14:11:37

Adobe: Very Compelling AI Monetization In Q2 (ADBE)
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Adobe reported strong Q2 earnings, beating estimates, and raising future guidance. ADBE's effective AI monetization strategy showcased strong Document Cloud growth, which will continue to accelerate. The Company's focus on integrating AI across its entire stack will drive steady double-digit compounding and operating leverage.
#Adobe #Ai #Monetization #Q2Earnings #DocumentCloud
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4699259-adobe-very-compelling-ai-monetization-in-q2-rating-upgrade

2024-06-13 22:21:40

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#note1d37…85kx

2024-06-13 22:21:28

CFTC's Christy Goldsmith Romero to be nominated as FDIC chair
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President Joe Biden will nominate Christy Goldsmith Romero to be chair and member of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). If confirmed by the Senate, she'll succeed Martin Gruenberg, who will step down after leading for about 10 years in two stints. Goldsmith Romero is currently a Democratic member of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and has been confirmed by the Senate for her current role and a previous role in the Department of Treasury. She was sworn in as a CFTC commissioner in 2022 and previously served as special inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program. Goldsmith Romero has also worked at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and taught courses in securities regulation, cryptocurrency regulation, and federal oversight at Georgetown University Law Center and University of Virginia Law School.
#ChristyGoldsmithRomero #Fdic #FederalDepositInsuranceCorporation #Cftc #CommoditiesFuturesTradingCommission #MartinGruenberg #JoeBiden #DepartmentOfTreasury #TroubledAssetReliefProgram #UsSecuritiesAndExchangeCommission #GeorgetownUniversityLawCenter #UniversityOfVirginiaLawSchool
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4115903-cftcs-christy-goldsmith-romero-to-be-nominated-as-fdic-chair

2024-06-13 22:20:33

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#note1shn…vshf

2024-06-13 22:20:22

Ether ETFs likely to go live by end of summer, SEC's Gary Gensler says (ETH-USD)
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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair, Gary Gensler, stated that spot ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are likely to go live by the end of summer. On May 23, the ETFs received initial approval to be listed, and prospective issuers were instructed to submit draft S-1 registration forms by May 31. Approvals of the registration forms would enable the products to start trading in the U.S. Individual issuers are currently working through the registration process.
#EtherEtfs #Sec #GaryGensler #Ethusd
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4115900-ether-etfs-likely-to-go-live-by-end-of-summer-secs-gary-gensler-says

2024-06-13 17:31:06

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#note13jd…kwyh

2024-06-13 17:30:55

U.S. natural gas inventory net change of +74 Bcf for week ended June 7 - EIA (NG1:COM)
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The U.S. natural gas inventory for the week ended June 7, 2024, had a net change of +74 Bcf, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This is compared to a net change of +98 Bcf for the previous week. The consensus estimate for the net change was +75 Bcf. The current stock level is 2,974 Bcf, which is 364 Bcf higher than the same time last year and 573 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,401 Bcf. The total working gas is above the five-year historical range. The information was reported by Ahmed Farhath and Rangsarit Chaiyakun on Seeking Alpha.
#NaturalGas #Inventory #Eia #Energy
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4115662-us-natural-gas-inventory-net-change-of-74-bcf-for-week-ended-june-7-eia

2024-06-12 21:30:47

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#note13vj…ezul

2024-06-12 21:30:35

Economy is solid, still need 'greater confidence' on inflation progress: Powell
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the U.S. economy is solid, with economic activity expanding at a solid pace and consumer spending remaining solid. The labor market has become more balanced, and Powell expects the labor market strength to continue. However, the Fed has not yet received the greater confidence it needs that inflation is sustainably heading toward the Fed's 2% inflation goal. Powell mentioned that the FOMC is coming to think that interest rates won't return to pre-COVID levels. The central bank policymakers are assuming 'good but not great' inflation numbers and are taking a conservative approach in their forecasting.
#FederalReserve #JeromePowell #UsEconomy #Inflation #InterestRates
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4115327-economic-is-solid-but-still-need-greater-confidence-on-inflation-progress-powell-press-conference

2024-06-11 19:20:07

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#note1nm0…vdza

2024-06-11 19:19:56

May CPI data, falling on same day as Fed decision, seen cooling a bit
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Consumer inflation data for May is expected to cool from the previous month, but likely not enough for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on the same day as the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision, which has only occurred seven times since 2014. CPI is seen rising 0.1% M/M in May, easing from April's 0.3% increase. Y/Y, the inflation gauge is forecast to climb 3.4%. Core CPI is expected to increase 0.3% M/M and 3.5% Y/Y. A downside surprise to core CPI could reopen hope for a July rate cut, while an upside surprise could lead to speculation of a rate hike. The Fed will have to continue to hold borrowing costs at the current restrictive level until it gains confidence in the progress on disinflation. Another key economic report slated for release is May's Producer Price Index (PPI), which is expected to slow to +0.1% M/M. PPI generally has a strong relationship with CPI, but there has been a recent divergence. PPI rose while CPI slipped, implying a narrowing in corporate margins.
#Cpi #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #ProducerPriceIndex
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4114534-may-cpi-data-falling-on-same-day-as-fed-decision-seen-cooling-a-bit

2024-06-09 23:05:42

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#note1mgt…w0qy

2024-06-09 23:05:30

Federal Reserve expected to hold rates, may lower rate cut expectations for 2024
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The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, making it the seventh consecutive meeting without a change. Market watchers will be paying attention to the wording in the FOMC's policy statement, the Summary of Economic Projections, and Chairman Jerome Powell's comments at the post-decision press conference. Economists expect a change in the Fed's description of progress on inflation to 'slow' and a nod to the recent mix of activity and price data suggesting a lower risk of price re-acceleration. The data in the policymakers' Summary of Economic Projections may reveal a reduction in rate cut expectations for 2024, with economists projecting two rate cuts by the end of the year. Longer-run interest rate projections and the neutral interest rate will also be closely watched. Chair Powell is expected to emphasize patience regarding rate cuts and assure market participants that the FOMC's views of fundamentals haven't changed.
#FederalReserve #InterestRates #RateCuts #Inflation #EconomicProjections #JeromePowell
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4114171-federal-reserve-expected-to-hold-rates-may-lower-rate-cut-expectations-for-2024

2024-06-08 14:07:28

- reply

#note1zup…htgh

2024-06-08 14:07:17

Lifeway Foods: The Selloff Is Overdone, This Microcap Stock Is Now A Strong Buy
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Lifeway Foods, Inc. (NASDAQ:LWAY) stock has experienced a recent selloff, which may be an overreaction. The company has a low P/E ratio and a strong financial position, making it an attractive investment. Lifeway Foods has great management, high ownership, low debt levels, and a dominant position in its niche market. The company is mostly known for its drinkable kefir products and has gained significant recognition among consumers in recent years. After reporting record high quarterly revenues but missing on EPS estimates, the stock experienced a 52% crash. The selloff is starting to get overdone, and Lifeway seems like a great buy now that the forward P/E multiple has dropped to 15. The company's main product is kefir, a cultured dairy drink that is similar to yogurt and is high in probiotics. Lifeway estimates that it occupies roughly 95% of the U.S. market in kefir and has grown annual revenues from around $12 million in 2002 to $160 million in 2023. Lifeway Foods has a market capitalization of around $193 million and an enterprise value of around $187 million. The company has a high level of insider ownership, with over 33% of shares held by individuals and insiders. Danone is a major backer of the company, owning around 23% of the company's shares outstanding. Lifeway has very low debt levels, with $2.6 million in total debt and around $12 million in cash on the balance sheet. The stock represents great value, with a forward P/E of only 15 and a valuation of 1.1x sales. Despite risks of inflation and potential future loss of market share, Lifeway Foods is a growing microcap food and beverage company that is a strong buy on the back of an overdone selloff.
#LifewayFoods #Nasdaq:lway #MicrocapStock #Selloff #P/eRatio #FinancialPosition #Management #Ownership #DebtLevels #NicheMarket #Kefir #Revenues #EpsEstimates #MarketCapitalization #InsiderOwnership #Danone #Valuation #Inflation #MarketShare
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4698187-lifeway-foods-the-selloff-is-overdone-this-microcap-stock-is-now-a-strong-buy

2024-06-06 17:16:57

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#note1epf…t6f8

2024-06-06 17:16:45

U.S. natural gas inventory net change of +98 Bcf for week ended May 31 - EIA (NG1:COM)
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The U.S. natural gas inventory for the week ended May 31, 2024, had a net change of +98 Bcf, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This is higher than the consensus estimate of +89 Bcf. The total working gas stock was 2,893 Bcf, which is 581 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,312 Bcf. Stocks were 373 Bcf higher than the previous year at the same time. The EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report provides more details.
#NaturalGas #Inventory #Eia #Energy #Storage
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4113693-us-natural-gas-inventory-net-change-of-98-bcf-for-week-ended-may-31-eia

2024-06-06 15:14:48

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#note1q57…ezwt

2024-06-06 15:14:37

Initial jobless claims increase more than expected
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Initial jobless claims for the week ended June 1 rose by 8K to 229K, higher than the expected 216K and the previous week's 221K. The four-week moving average decreased to 222.250K from the prior week's average of 223,000. Continuing claims increased slightly to 1.792M from the previous week's 1.790M. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2% for the week ended May 25.
#InitialJoblessClaims #Unemployment #UsEconomy
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4113560-initial-jobless-claims-increase-more-than-expected

2024-06-05 16:24:45

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#note1m3s…whfu

2024-06-05 16:24:34

U.S. PMI Composite final print revised up a tick from initial estimate
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The S&P Global U.S. PMI Composite came in at 54.5, revised up from the initial estimate of 54.4, indicating a significant increase from 51.3 in April. Companies increased output and new export business expanded. Services PMI was 54.8, unchanged from the initial estimate and higher than the previous month. Services employment fell for the second month in a row. The data suggest a healthy pace of expansion in the U.S. private sector. Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented on the acceleration in the manufacturing sector and the overall expansion in the private sector. The article was written by Liz Kiesche and published on Seeking Alpha.
#UsPmiComposite #EconomicExpansion #S&pGlobal #ServicesPmi #Employment
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4113163-us-pmi-composite-final-print-revised-up-a-tick-from-initial-estimate

2024-06-03 14:22:55

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#note1x3y…pupy

2024-06-03 14:22:44

Inverted yield curve: Is it still a reliable recession indicator?
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Treasury yields have been inverted for close to two years, raising concerns about a recession. However, recent months have seen a moderation in recession calls as the US economy continues to expand and unemployment remains low. The yield curve, which has predicted every recession over the past 50 years, is being questioned for its reliability. While some believe it is no longer a reliable indicator, others point to its accuracy in predicting past recessions. The last two instances of yield curve inversion occurred in August 2019, ahead of the pandemic-induced recession, and in March 2022, just before a recession emerged in the second quarter of that year. The possibility of a recession happening eventually is still being debated.
#YieldCurve #Recession #UsEconomy #TreasuryYields
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4112244-inverted-yield-curve-is-it-still-a-reliable-recession-indicator

2024-06-01 08:40:22

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#note1lc7…cesj

2024-06-01 08:40:10

The Not Quite Dead Yield Curve Signal
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The Treasury yield curve has been inverted between the 10-year and 2-year maturities for 500 days. Prior to the current inversion, which started in 2022, the 10-2 curve has inverted on four occasions since 1987. The current stretch of 500+ days may still end with a recession. The inversion signal has had false positives in the past, including a brief period in 2019. The pandemic and its economic impact have made it harder to rely on traditional metrics as reliable signals.
#YieldCurve #Recession #EconomicIndicators
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4696881-not-quite-dead-yield-curve-signal

2024-06-01 08:02:30

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#note1lc7…cesj

2024-06-01 08:02:18

2024-05-31 19:28:54

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#note1sta…37n3

2024-05-31 19:28:43

The economy has hit a "stall speed" - Rosenberg Research
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The U.S. economy has hit a "stall speed" and could weaken even further from here, according to David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research. The 1.3% growth in the U.S. economy from January through March confirms its weakness, with a risk of even more weakness in the second quarter. Rosenberg believes that if the economy continues to decelerate, a recession could occur. The catalyst for a "bullish macro view" used to be the excess pandemic-era savings, but those have already been spent. The upcoming non-farm payroll report on June 7 has been skewed by the birth-death model, with half the gains in the non-farm payrolls coming from it. However, Rosenberg does not expect the print to be negative, but rather fairly soft for the second month in a row.
#UsEconomy #EconomicGrowth #Recession #NonfarmPayroll #BirthdeathModel
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4112003-the-economy-has-hit-a-stall-speed-rosenberg-research

2024-05-31 18:48:05

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#note1rd3…09sw

2024-05-31 18:47:54

AI Stocks, ETF Picks, And The Case For $5K Gold And $200K Bitcoin
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Michael Lee, founder of Michael Lee Strategy, discusses the outlook for stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies. He believes the economy will avoid recession and that it will be a "pretty spectacular period for stocks" for three key reasons. He also believes that the AI boom is real and that Nvidia is undervalued. He recommends investing in gold and Bitcoin, predicting that gold will reach $5,000 and Bitcoin will reach $200,000. He also discusses the performance of tech stocks, the potential of commodities, and his thoughts on the consumer discretionary and consumer staples sectors.
#Stocks #Gold #Cryptocurrencies #Ai #Economy #Inflation
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4696776-ai-stocks-etf-picks-5k-gold-200k-bitcoin

2024-05-31 18:05:22

PCE April 2024: Personal Spending Data Confirm Severe Economic Slowdown
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Real PCE contracted by -0.05% in April 2024, below economists' forecast of -0.05% growth. The weak PCE data suggests a significant slowdown in the US economy, potentially raising macro risk for markets. A "nightmare" scenario would be that growth continues to slow precipitously while the Fed is not able to lower rates due to stubborn inflation. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its estimate for April 2024 US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which contracted by -0.05% compared to economists' forecast of -0.05% growth. The PCE data confirms a severe economic slowdown in the US, raising macro risk for markets. The weak PCE data suggests that growth may continue to slow while the Fed is unable to lower rates due to stubborn inflation. The report indicates a potential risk of stagflation and a "nightmare" scenario for the US economy. The implications of the report are bearish for equities, and the risk of a major decline in the US equity market has risen. The US Treasury yields declined after the report, and bond markets were relieved by the PCEPI inflation number. The S&P 500 initially rose but reversed gains due to weak personal spending growth. The report highlights the need for investors to be proactive and take decisive action to improve investment performance. The author, James A. Kostohryz, recommends subscribing to the Successful Portfolio Strategy service for strategic portfolio management.
#Pce #EconomicSlowdown #UsEconomy #Inflation #Equities #UsTreasuryYields #S&p500 #Investing
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4696772-pce-april-2024-personal-spending-data-confirm-severe-economic-slowdown

2024-05-31 16:38:29

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#note1gwr…kqaa

2024-05-31 16:38:18

Chicago PMI unexpectedly falls to in May
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The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May fell to 35.4, lower than the expected 40.8 and down from 37.9 in April. The unexpected decline in the PMI indicates a slowdown in economic activity in the Chicago area. The data suggests that business conditions deteriorated in May, with declines in production, new orders, and employment. This decline in the PMI is a concerning sign for the U.S. economy as it indicates a potential slowdown in manufacturing and overall economic growth.
#ChicagoPmi #EconomicActivity #BusinessConditions #Manufacturing #EconomicGrowth
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4111941-chicago-pmi-unexpectedly-falls-to-in-may

2024-05-30 17:14:25

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#note14ww…v3v8

2024-05-30 17:14:14

U.S. natural gas inventory net change of +84 Bcf for week ended May 24 - EIA (NG1:COM)
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The U.S. natural gas inventory for the week ended May 24, 2024, had a net change of +84 Bcf, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This is higher than the consensus estimate of +77 Bcf. The total working gas stock was 2,795 Bcf, which is 84 Bcf higher than the previous week and 586 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,209 Bcf. The stock is also 380 Bcf higher than the same time last year. The EIA report indicates that the natural gas market has an excess supply compared to historical levels. The full report can be found on Seeking Alpha.
#NaturalGas #Inventory #Eia #Energy #Supply #Demand
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4111604-us-natural-gas-inventory-net-change-of-84-bcf-for-week-ended-may-24-eia

2024-05-30 15:08:32

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#note1jwz…gly3

2024-05-30 15:08:20

Wholesale inventories rise more than expected in April to +0.2% M/M
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Wholesale inventories in April rose more than expected to +0.2% M/M, reaching $896.3 billion, compared to a consensus estimate of -0.1% and a decrease of -0.4% in March. The inventories were down 1.6% from April 2023. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the percentage change from February 2024 to March 2024 remained unchanged at -0.4%.
#WholesaleInventories #April #UsCensusBureau
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4111507-wholesale-inventories-rise-more-than-expected-in-april-to-02-mm

2024-05-29 11:09:26

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#note1ycr…vy8z

2024-05-29 11:09:15

Apple: Relatively Immune From AI Disruption
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Apple's business is not directly impacted by the introduction of knowledge-on-demand apps like ChatGPT. The company's strong market position, user stack advantages, and services distribution leverage insulate the company and make it an attractive investment opportunity. Trading at a reasonable price, we think AAPL looks like a 'Buy'. Since the release of ChatGPT in November 2022, the tech world has fundamentally shifted. Companies from across the spectrum have begun to search for generative AI use cases to improve business operations. One company that has been virtually silent on this topic? Apple. While the company does have a number of products that could be affected by changes to the AI landscape, like Siri, the company's business isn't directly impacted by the introduction of knowledge-on-demand apps like ChatGPT. AAPL's hardware remains in high demand, and the company's unbeatable physical network means that its premium service & content offerings shouldn't be impacted much by the changes. Apple's primary business is the design and sale of personal computing devices, including the iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple TV, Apple Watch, and most recently, the Vision Pro. These devices cover the gamut of touchpoints between the human experience and technology. Apple has then built a secondary services business on top of this hardware ecosystem, where it provides access to an apps marketplace, along with financial services, content offerings, productivity apps, and more. Competitively, here are the key reasons why we like AAPL's Market Position. 1.) UX Advantages: AAPL's products are front and center in user experience, which is a massive inbuilt advantage that's bound to endure. 2.) Services Insulation: AAPL's high margin, high growth services segment shouldn't see much in the way of disruption from recent genAI advances either. 3.) The Vision Pro: Apple's recent Vision Pro launch shows that the company still has its eye towards the future of computing. AAPL's valuation is reasonable, trading at a 7.6x sales multiple and a 29x earnings multiple. However, on a historical basis, the stock does appear to be trading at a 'midpoint' of sorts, hovering around the 5-year linear regression trend point. Despite the risks, AAPL is a one-of-a-kind opportunity in the market today. With a strong position in personal computing and a powerful top-of-funnel leverage point, it's hard to see the company losing business as a result of the genAI gold rush. Therefore, we're upgrading our AAPL rating to a 'Buy'.
#Apple #AiDisruption #Chatgpt #KnowledgeondemandApps #Hardware #Services #Valuation
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4696148-apple-relatively-immune-from-ai-disruption

2024-05-28 11:23:48

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#note1xy0…p2q5

2024-05-28 11:23:37

Fed's Kashkari: More positive inflation data needed before rate cut, can't rule out hike
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Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that the Federal Reserve should see more positive inflation data before considering cutting interest rates. Kashkari mentioned that rate hikes could be on the table if inflation does not cool further. Earlier this month, Kashkari had said that the central bank may need to maintain rates at the current level potentially all year. His views align with those of his colleagues who also want to see more positive inflation data before supporting rate cuts.
#FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4110592-fed-kashkari-more-positive-inflation-data-rates

2024-05-27 11:12:49

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#note1ly7…rh86

2024-05-27 11:12:38

Flash PMI Data Signals Steep Acceleration Of U.S. Growth Midway Through Second Quarter
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The US economic upturn accelerated again in May after two months of slower growth, with the early PMI data signaling the fastest expansion for just over two years. US business activity growth accelerated sharply to its fastest for just over two years in May, according to provisional PMI survey data from S&P Global, signaling an improved economic performance midway through the second quarter. Employment fell for a second successive month in May, contrasting with the continual hiring trend seen over the prior 45 months. The headline S&P Global Flash US PMI Composite Output Index rose sharply from 51.3 in April to 54.4 in May, its highest since April 2022. Optimism about output in the year ahead lifted higher in both manufacturing and services in response to brighter business prospects, the latter in turn often linked to expansion plans, new products, and increased marketing. Employment fell for a second successive month in May, contrasting with the continual hiring trend seen over the prior 45 months. Input prices continued to rise sharply in May, with the rate of inflation accelerating to register the second-largest monthly increase seen over the past eight months. The PMI's selling price index provides a useful insight into inflation trends in the coming months, tending to act with a lead on consumer price data.
#UsEconomy #PmiData #EconomicGrowth #BusinessActivity #Employment #Inflation
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4695798-flash-pmi-data-signals-steep-acceleration-us-growth-midway-second-quarter

2024-05-26 23:14:02

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#note1gvp…7g2y

2024-05-26 23:13:51

Auto insurance inflation set to tap on the brakes, BofA economist says
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Rising auto insurance premiums have been a notable driver of inflation, with motor vehicle insurance jumping 22.6% in April from a year earlier. Bank of America Securities Economist Stephen Juneau attributes this to underwriting losses in the industry, including higher vehicle prices, increased repair costs, and a higher number of accidents. However, Juneau believes that motor vehicle insurance rate growth is expected to slow as insurers return to profitability, vehicle prices stabilize, and wage growth cools. The Federal Reserve will be closely monitoring personal consumption expenditure figures to gauge inflation. P&C insurer stocks, including Allstate, Berkshire Hathaway, and Travelers, have been climbing alongside rising insurance premiums.
#AutoInsurance #Inflation #BankOfAmerica #Premiums #UnderwritingLosses #VehiclePrices #RepairCosts #Accidents #FederalReserve #PersonalConsumptionExpenditure #P&cInsurerStocks #Allstate #BerkshireHathaway #Travelers
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4110270-auto-insurance-inflation

2024-05-26 19:07:45

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#note1eqp…5t58