Inverted yield curve: Is it still a reliable recession indicator?
==========
Treasury yields have been inverted for close to two years, raising concerns about a recession. However, recent months have seen a moderation in recession calls as the US economy continues to expand and unemployment remains low. The yield curve, which has predicted every recession over the past 50 years, is being questioned for its reliability. While some believe it is no longer a reliable indicator, others point to its accuracy in predicting past recessions. The last two instances of yield curve inversion occurred in August 2019, ahead of the pandemic-induced recession, and in March 2022, just before a recession emerged in the second quarter of that year. The possibility of a recession happening eventually is still being debated.
#YieldCurve #Recession #UsEconomy #TreasuryYields
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4112244-inverted-yield-curve-is-it-still-a-reliable-recession-indicator
Seeking Alpha /
npub1qpf…damf
2024-06-03 14:22:44
Author Public Key
npub1qpfrthtcf6g8grmwfv45qf28aa4xqk73pgnmwjdfuze8zl2l2cnsewdamfPublished at
2024-06-03 14:22:44Event JSON
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"content": "Inverted yield curve: Is it still a reliable recession indicator?\n==========\n\nTreasury yields have been inverted for close to two years, raising concerns about a recession. However, recent months have seen a moderation in recession calls as the US economy continues to expand and unemployment remains low. The yield curve, which has predicted every recession over the past 50 years, is being questioned for its reliability. While some believe it is no longer a reliable indicator, others point to its accuracy in predicting past recessions. The last two instances of yield curve inversion occurred in August 2019, ahead of the pandemic-induced recession, and in March 2022, just before a recession emerged in the second quarter of that year. The possibility of a recession happening eventually is still being debated.\n\n#YieldCurve #Recession #UsEconomy #TreasuryYields\n\nhttps://seekingalpha.com/news/4112244-inverted-yield-curve-is-it-still-a-reliable-recession-indicator",
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