I mean, the issue with his assumptions (that are really not his assumptios but a well known vodoo god-like belief of blind technologists) is that theg do not take into account tail events. Like a global war, for instance. Or the invasion of a country that owns the 80/90% of the esportations in chips (as the Taiwan/Chinese drama).
These events terribly change the forecasts outcomes but we cannot really model the probability these events.
Thus, population growth is still a preferrable situation.
tolot /
npub1lnj…8v28
2024-05-02 23:55:29
in reply to nevent1q…mw82
Author Public Key
npub1lnjpw7at64lkf5cz5lcymdx3zayc8c60hlp8ykqxpjcjlagyehyqlr8v28Published at
2024-05-02 23:55:29Event JSON
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"content": "I mean, the issue with his assumptions (that are really not his assumptios but a well known vodoo god-like belief of blind technologists) is that theg do not take into account tail events. Like a global war, for instance. Or the invasion of a country that owns the 80/90% of the esportations in chips (as the Taiwan/Chinese drama).\n\n These events terribly change the forecasts outcomes but we cannot really model the probability these events.\n\nThus, population growth is still a preferrable situation.",
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