Assume the merchant is colluding with the channel partner.
Buyer sends 100 sat payment through channel partner, channel partner knows this is a payment going to the merchant since merchant alerts the channel partner a payment is coming.
Channel partner sits on the blob for 100ms.
BTC fiat price goes up so the thing now costs 90 sats. Channel partner then routes the blob.
Or, BTC fiat price goes down so the thing now costs 110 sats. Channel partner decides not to route the blob and chalks it up to one of those sporadic failures.
Roughly the same failure mode is possible.
