Military analyst at the Royal Danish Defence College.
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Published at
2023-03-27T15:40:49+02:00 Event JSON
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Last Notes npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen There is a lot of talk about a Russian counteroffensive in Kursk. It’s worth remembering that right now it is actually in Zelensky’s interest to make it sound like a big deal, because that will validate his claim that the Kursk offensive is working to divert Russian resources from elsewhere. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1x8x…4mnt Such instances show up and disappear from time to time. They usually get defederated from most servers pretty quickly. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen It is the nature of military offensives that they eventually culminate, and that is a good moment for the adversary to launch a counteroffensive. At least according to Clausewitz. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub18qs…0s8s Great initiative. But frankly I think what journalists really want are quote posts. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen I am getting a lot of requests to comment on these videos from the Austrian army, so here's my quick take. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Cool. Looking forward to seeing Ghost integrate with the Fediverse. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Russian state media continue to push the explanation that the arrested terrorists did it for money. Apparently, the salary for becoming a mass murderer was USD 5400. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Here is the footage where Putin calls recent American warnings about a possible terror attack in Moscow a lie designed to destabilize the Russian society. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Putin has now signed a law making it illegal for Russians and Russian companies to buy advertisements with so-called foreign agents. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Ouch. 🤯 npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub14k2…ed68 Thanks for the nice words about our book. I will forward your review to the publisher. Maybe that can help get the English translation going. 😊 npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1tal…f0uu @npub1zva…e2q5 The pessimistic scenario includes the possibility of a war between NATO and Russia. You don’t think that’s bad enough? npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Just because they sacked him, doesn’t mean he didn’t die in September. Unless the Black Sea Fleet commander is seen alive, this looks like a coverup. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen If the U.S. will play a smaller role in European security going forward, we need to have a conversation about nuclear weapons. The current UK and French arsenals are not sufficient to deter Russia, but the big question is if the solution is to grow their stockpiles, or if more countries need to join the nuclear club. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1u2h…z4d7 Ah, yes. That might be a good workaround. When I started on Mastodon I followed a few hashtags, but it quickly flooded my home timeline. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1u2h…z4d7 Can you hide the hashtag from your home timeline? npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Important video from Ryan McBeth: Why is the New York Times so often wrong about military issues? npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen The YouTube channel Reporting from Ukraine is taking some time off for a New Year vacation, but fortunately there are other good sources of information. This video from Torsten Heinrich is packed with useful information and a great overview of the frontline situation. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen It has been a really bad week for the Russian air force, that has lost five fighter jets. There is a lot of speculation that Ukraine is using the Patriot air defense system in an offensive role, but I just want to throw out there that this might also be what a surprise appearance by F-16 would look like…[email protected] /111639925882736208 npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen With this news story making the rounds, it’s important that people keep the difference between a ceasefire and a peace deal in mind. I think it’s likely that Putin would like a ceasefire during the presidential election in Russia, but it’s not likely that he is ready to accept a peace deal at this point. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen This week, both Blinken and Stoltenberg reiterated the notion that #Russia has already lost in #Ukraine because they failed to achieve their original goals. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Ukraine ramps up domestic defense production, now for 155 mm ammunition. It will take time before this works, but that is one of the reasons why we should expect Ukraine to mainly focus on defensive operations for the time being. https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/12/08/minister-ukraine-to-partner-with-us-firms-to-produce-155mm-shells-domestically/ npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen I am on this episode of Silicon Curtain. It’s about an hour’s talk about the war in #Ukraine, the need for the West to understand #Russia’s war aims, and what it will take to break the deadlock. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Does anyone have a qualified estimate of how many truckloads of logistics a brigade needs on a daily basis. I keep seeing people saying that #Ukraine will need a bridge over the Dnipro to sustain a fight, and that is also conventional doctrine for river crossings. But a single mini-ferry capable of carrying three trucks and conducting one passage per hour will transfer 72 trucks every day. How many such ferries would it take to replace a bridge? npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub178r…qekt @npub1lsl…9c2x @npub15qw…3p2z One nice thing about Bluesky is that many more people have a presence under their real name. I guess that helps to reduce the urge to yell too. But I must say the platform still feels like very much a beta product to me. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub14k2…ed68 @npub1znz…z3xm And the Ukrainians are fighting for our freedom and security in the decades to come. Regardless how one looks at Israel and Gaza, the same is not the case for that war. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen What I have noticed most about Russia's reaction to the war between Israel and Hamas is that they use it as a tool in the domestic media space. They are covering it intensely, and it's a story that fits the Russian propaganda machine perfectly: Ostensibly important but also drawing attention away from anything that can politicize the population. It's a perfect distraction from the war in Ukraine. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Wonder what Zelensky is teasing here. 🤔 npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1hpc…hjn3 @npub1r73…uhv6 @npub195z…x938 It's slightly baffling that apparently all the cool stuff is happening on a platform that most people don't have access to. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1hpc…hjn3 The problem with Mastodon's explore tab is that it is server-wide. It is not tailored *for you*. That means that for most people it is at best mildly interesting to look at. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1ka8…r9gt @npub1lsl…9c2x Did Jack Dorsey leave the company or just stop posting on Bluesky? npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen It boggles the mind that Ukrainian officials keep producing exclusive content for Elon Musk. I understand why they don't leave X right away, they need the audience. But I don't get why they are not even trying to build a presence in the Fediverse. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen There is a lot of talk about Biden having made the decision to provide ATACMS to #Ukraine. I think when we look at the attacks on Crimea from the last 10 days or so, it has been evident that Ukraine has stopped preserving their stocks of Storm Shadows. So maybe they knew that new supplies of long-range missile were on the way. 🤔 npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub14k2…ed68 Not really. But I have experienced the same thing with people contacting me about very strong war anxiety, where they really don’t need factual information from a military analyst but rather coping guidance from a therapist. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1yyx…qa5g It seems I will have to try this Obsidian thing. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Russia is in a spiral of escalating repression, but it is nevertheless noteworthy when milestones are being passed. That happened with Prigozhin's plane crash and the arrest of Girkin. With these events, Putin has redefined the rules of how politics are done in Russia. That is my topic in this video. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1zva…e2q5 I guess you will not be surprised to learn I disagree. In my view it is not "protesting a religion" but "inciting violence", and I am fine with that not being allowed. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen There is a common misconception about the purpose of sending F-16 to #Ukraine. The goal is not to give them a few handfuls of aircraft from Denmark and the Netherlands. The goal must be a long-term plan that Ukraine in 4-5 years will have an air force with hundreds of planes. That makes sense regardless whether the war has ended or not. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1hpc…hjn3 It's possible, and obviously there will also be bad decisions on the Ukrainian side. I think the decision to hang on in Bakhmut was an attempt to force the Russians to remain on the offensive in a location where Ukraine could manage it. Russia could not be allowed to get a break, and the last thing they needed was to be forced to start the counteroffensive too soon. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen I have ventured into the genre of reaction videos. Military analyst Michael Kofman has argued that #Ukraine made a mistake when they decided to fight for Bakhmut, and that it undermined their preparations for the counteroffensive. Supposedly this is one of the reasons why the offensive has not delivered more results. Kofman is an influential figure, so I think it's important to point out that there are weaknesses in his argument. https://youtu.be/rNw4wkkibso npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1hpc…hjn3 I think it does. But it's not available in the EU yet… npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1hpc…hjn3 Personally I am waiting for Mastodon to get quote posts before I do more lobbying among my Twitter followers. Regardless where one stands on the question of quotes in general, most of my Twitter friends will consider the platform to be inadequate without it.
