Military analyst at the Royal Danish Defence College. I make videos on YouTube about war, conflict, Russia – at the moment mostly the war in Ukraine. I also host Krigskunst Podcast, which is a monthly show with conversations with experts in military and security matters.
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Published at
2023-03-27T15:40:49+02:00 Event JSON
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Last Notes npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1x8x…4mnt Such instances show up and disappear from time to time. They usually get defederated from most servers pretty quickly. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen I am getting a lot of requests to comment on these videos from the Austrian army, so here's my quick take. These videos demonstrate the best and the worst of military staff work in Western countries today. It is good and solid analysis backed up by facts and documentation. It is also way too slow. By the time they publish the videos, they have been overtaken by events and the conclusions describe the situation a month ago. https://youtu.be/gk7D_TliAuE npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Russian state media continue to push the explanation that the arrested terrorists did it for money. Apparently, the salary for becoming a mass murderer was USD 5400. They don't mention ISIS with a single word. On a sidenote, it has always puzzled me that Russians in uniform so often wear masks on TV even in situations where it makes no operational sense. Are they not proud to be associated with their service? https://cdn.masto.host/krigskunstsocial/media_attachments/files/112/155/331/886/176/969/original/1ceb08468ed142b8.png npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Here is the footage where Putin calls recent American warnings about a possible terror attack in Moscow a lie designed to destabilize the Russian society. https://tass.ru/politika/20283597 npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Putin has now signed a law making it illegal for Russians and Russian companies to buy advertisements with so-called foreign agents. This is the law I mention in this video, where I discuss how the West can fight the information war. I argue that the West wants to achieve different results than #Russia, so we need to use different tools than they do (misinformation, trolling, etc.). https://youtu.be/-U8YgPaYjSA?si=XUbPhYdiQTqbgB6I npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Ouch. 🤯 Former CIA Director explains how Russia is using 'Republican lawmakers as tools’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_9l9zYhsVY npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub14k2…ed68 Thanks for the nice words about our book. I will forward your review to the publisher. Maybe that can help get the English translation going. 😊 @npub1jqq…deen npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1tal…f0uu @npub1zva…e2q5 The pessimistic scenario includes the possibility of a war between NATO and Russia. You don’t think that’s bad enough? npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Just because they sacked him, doesn’t mean he didn’t die in September. Unless the Black Sea Fleet commander is seen alive, this looks like a coverup. https://www.kyivpost.com/post/28112 npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen If the U.S. will play a smaller role in European security going forward, we need to have a conversation about nuclear weapons. The current UK and French arsenals are not sufficient to deter Russia, but the big question is if the solution is to grow their stockpiles, or if more countries need to join the nuclear club. (The fact that this is now a discussion just goes to show the shortsightedness of American isolationalism.) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/15/uk-europe-nuclear-shield-donald-trump-germany-nato-deterrent npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1u2h…z4d7 Ah, yes. That might be a good workaround. When I started on Mastodon I followed a few hashtags, but it quickly flooded my home timeline. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1u2h…z4d7 Can you hide the hashtag from your home timeline? npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Important video from Ryan McBeth: Why is the New York Times so often wrong about military issues? My own observations are similar. It’s a problem in our news coverage that so few journalists understand #military questions. These are issues that make world headlines, yet many news organizations don't employ journalists with a deep enough understanding to ask the right questions. https://youtu.be/4_1bFbk9MIQ?si=WI7aHEDRs2wn4bRv npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen The YouTube channel Reporting from Ukraine is taking some time off for a New Year vacation, but fortunately there are other good sources of information. This video from Torsten Heinrich is packed with useful information and a great overview of the frontline situation. https://youtu.be/OBIx-L7YE5c?si=CnhgNh2z4j7mY0F4 npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen It has been a really bad week for the Russian air force, that has lost five fighter jets. There is a lot of speculation that Ukraine is using the Patriot air defense system in an offensive role, but I just want to throw out there that this might also be what a surprise appearance by F-16 would look like… From: @npub1fsx…hhpf https://mastodon.social/@[email protected] /111639925882736208 npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen With this news story making the rounds, it’s important that people keep the difference between a ceasefire and a peace deal in mind. I think it’s likely that Putin would like a ceasefire during the presidential election in Russia, but it’s not likely that he is ready to accept a peace deal at this point. From: @npub18t7…8ymj https://mastodon.social/@thejapantimes/111633570228210890 npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen This week, both Blinken and Stoltenberg reiterated the notion that #Russia has already lost in #Ukraine because they failed to achieve their original goals. This is the kind of dangerous narrative that I talk about in this video. We have to stop talking about the war in terms where it sounds like Ukraine has already won. https://youtu.be/-8ZPbnVqHrY npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Ukraine ramps up domestic defense production, now for 155 mm ammunition. It will take time before this works, but that is one of the reasons why we should expect Ukraine to mainly focus on defensive operations for the time being. https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/12/08/minister-ukraine-to-partner-with-us-firms-to-produce-155mm-shells-domestically/ npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen I am on this episode of Silicon Curtain. It’s about an hour’s talk about the war in #Ukraine, the need for the West to understand #Russia’s war aims, and what it will take to break the deadlock. https://youtu.be/A10Hl913qgg?si=yCBjf-PeDFSchHNA npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub178r…qekt @npub1lsl…9c2x @npub15qw…3p2z One nice thing about Bluesky is that many more people have a presence under their real name. I guess that helps to reduce the urge to yell too. But I must say the platform still feels like very much a beta product to me. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen What I have noticed most about Russia's reaction to the war between Israel and Hamas is that they use it as a tool in the domestic media space. They are covering it intensely, and it's a story that fits the Russian propaganda machine perfectly: Ostensibly important but also drawing attention away from anything that can politicize the population. It's a perfect distraction from the war in Ukraine. @npub1sfh…9gqj https://mastodon.social/@rvps2001/111294208957510276 npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Wonder what Zelensky is teasing here. 🤔 “In an unusually early statement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked Ukrainian forces for the successful attack and nodded to “effective” Western weapons. “I thank some of our partners. That is indeed an effective weapon, as we agreed,” Zelenskyy said, revealing no more details.” https://www.politico.eu/article/kyiv-ukraine-russia-helicopters-in-a-successful-attack-on-airfields/ npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1ka8…r9gt @npub1lsl…9c2x Did Jack Dorsey leave the company or just stop posting on Bluesky? npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen It boggles the mind that Ukrainian officials keep producing exclusive content for Elon Musk. I understand why they don't leave X right away, they need the audience. But I don't get why they are not even trying to build a presence in the Fediverse. #Ukraine Quoting @npub159m…jf4a https://mastodon.world/@saint_rebel_ukraine_/111163918422211656 npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen There is a lot of talk about Biden having made the decision to provide ATACMS to #Ukraine. I think when we look at the attacks on Crimea from the last 10 days or so, it has been evident that Ukraine has stopped preserving their stocks of Storm Shadows. So maybe they knew that new supplies of long-range missile were on the way. 🤔 npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub14k2…ed68 Not really. But I have experienced the same thing with people contacting me about very strong war anxiety, where they really don’t need factual information from a military analyst but rather coping guidance from a therapist. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1yyx…qa5g It seems I will have to try this Obsidian thing. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen Russia is in a spiral of escalating repression, but it is nevertheless noteworthy when milestones are being passed. That happened with Prigozhin's plane crash and the arrest of Girkin. With these events, Putin has redefined the rules of how politics are done in Russia. That is my topic in this video. https://youtu.be/qXaEYZbUQhU #Russia #Ukraine npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1zva…e2q5 I guess you will not be surprised to learn I disagree. In my view it is not "protesting a religion" but "inciting violence", and I am fine with that not being allowed. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen There is a common misconception about the purpose of sending F-16 to #Ukraine. The goal is not to give them a few handfuls of aircraft from Denmark and the Netherlands. The goal must be a long-term plan that Ukraine in 4-5 years will have an air force with hundreds of planes. That makes sense regardless whether the war has ended or not. From: @npub1fvv…yw2w https://infosec.exchange/@kevinrothrock/110908549515602889 npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1hpc…hjn3 It's possible, and obviously there will also be bad decisions on the Ukrainian side. I think the decision to hang on in Bakhmut was an attempt to force the Russians to remain on the offensive in a location where Ukraine could manage it. Russia could not be allowed to get a break, and the last thing they needed was to be forced to start the counteroffensive too soon. npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen I have ventured into the genre of reaction videos. Military analyst Michael Kofman has argued that #Ukraine made a mistake when they decided to fight for Bakhmut, and that it undermined their preparations for the counteroffensive. Supposedly this is one of the reasons why the offensive has not delivered more results. Kofman is an influential figure, so I think it's important to point out that there are weaknesses in his argument. https://youtu.be/rNw4wkkibso npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1hpc…hjn3 I think it does. But it's not available in the EU yet… npub1etryy284glerlf75ct8rn6ks0dlmfk6wghllu50268jly46zutxq0ht8lc Anders Puck Nielsen @npub1hpc…hjn3 Personally I am waiting for Mastodon to get quote posts before I do more lobbying among my Twitter followers. Regardless where one stands on the question of quotes in general, most of my Twitter friends will consider the platform to be inadequate without it.