brock
Brock Wilson

Scarcity requires trade-offs.

📈🔥🚀

Energy, finance, & #bitcoin | former XOM & GE | Harvard MBA | Auburn Chemical Engineer

Bitcoin only. NOSTR only.

(…Not financial advice, do your own research, opinions my own…)

⛳️🏌️‍♂️ 🍻 🥩🍷

Public Key

npub1dl3snacnxj9qu5a5llsch0qld4vrvv2s0pv5wh0ntsq80ndz304ql234z9

NIP-57 Address

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Profile Code

nprofile1qqsxlccf7ufnfzsw2w60lcvths0k6kpkx9g8sk28the4cqrhek3gh6spz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dsduptda

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relay.damus.io

nos.lol

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npub1dl3snacnxj9qu5a5llsch0qld4vrvv2s0pv5wh0ntsq80ndz304ql234z9

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Last Notes

2024-09-14 18:26:42

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How many SPACs have been successful. I’ve heard horror stories, haven’t read / heard many success stories.

2024-09-13 15:58:45

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I know this exchange of time for bitcoin stack is what Pierre is doing at Riot but I see utilization of bitcoin stacks in another way. In order for bitcoin to fulfill its potential as money, it has to be used at capital. It is the hodlers dilemma: bitcoin outperforms all markets on a 4-year duration so why would you spend it?
If I’m not going to sell bitcoin but I want to buy tangible assets I think I can derive value from…the only other option is to collateralize loans with my Bitcoin … denominated in whatever currency the seller of the asset will accept.
The crux of that strategy is that the use of capital from those bitcoin collateralized loans has to beat return on equity expectations. Its “debt vs. equity” competition not “capital investment vs. bitcoin” competition.
In that way my bitcoin debt becomes the equity underwriting conventional economic deals. And the competition isn’t outperforming Bitcoin, it becomes outperforming traditional equity - likely private equity where equity expectations are 20%+.
That being said, right now the bitcoin loan market is far too shallow and short-term (6 months) and expensive (14%) to deploy this strategy widely and with sufficient risk-management to ensure you don’t lose your coins chasing projects but I believe it is where we are heading.
Ultimately Bitcoin has to engage in the real world in real financial markets.
There needs to be downward pressure on interest rates and outward pressure on duration for bitcoin collateralized loans. Only in that way will Bitcoin start to act as capital competing in the marketplace.
As an aside, in @npub1guh…6hjy rip with Matt Dines, Matt says these loans have a 3% fee!? Crazy expensive…I’m guessing just because the market is so shallow and they have to keep people employed. I would expect that goes down over time.
cc: @npub1hxw…40pf @npub1s5y…6q7z @npub1a2c…w83a @npub1s05…eyhe @npub1sg6…f63m @npub1qny…95gx

2024-09-06 00:45:47

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Gotta splash the sand, can’t be scooping it from that lie! 😂

2024-09-05 20:43:44

My wife breaks out in keto rash a few days into strict carnivore diet. Any idea how to treat / manage without breaking ketosis?
@npub1508…twu3

2024-09-02 14:35:28

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I think the macroeconomic backdrop will accelerate bitcoin’s price performance to outperform the power law model.
The amount of easing required to “fix” the treasury markets globally is going to be silly.

2024-09-01 09:34:09

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Okay, so you’re saying the power law model gets the timing right on bitcoin’s mass adoption? Because every pricing model is trying to represent the timing of bitcoin’s price appreciation, right?

2024-09-01 04:28:33

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The model works until it doesn’t. Just like S2F … if any major government / company decides it’s going to buck the dollar in order to cement its future relevancy, every model out there becomes irrelevant immediately.

2024-08-31 13:27:35

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Brazil is gonna convert a whole bunch Brazilians into NOSTRich bitcoiners

2024-08-31 13:18:11

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The cost of enforcing regulation will be the downfall of regulation. Bitcoin fixes this.

2024-08-28 13:29:41

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The valuation change is likely permanent but do you think the funds believe they can push a few years down the road?
As with most things, timing matters. When will the CRE credit crisis hit? If banks and investors are okay changing terms and delaying payouts couldn’t this futility last several years?

2024-08-19 04:03:49

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There is a lack of macro content over here. However, there is (broadly) a lot less engagement over here than there is on Twitter. Kinda feels like shouting into the void. But I would welcome your contributions over here … one voice at a time.

2024-08-17 12:46:08

Network effects are critical for social networks / digital products to work. This is because every connection compounds the value of the product.
Facebook achieved its network effect by starting at elite universities and teasing false scarcity in the roll out of their product. It was cool to be on Facebook and not everyone had the opportunity. When a new user base had the opportunity to participate they opted in, and many became instantaneous heavy users.
While the free speech angle of NOSTR is cool, the network effect isn’t happening. I follow 800+ accounts but the same couple dozen individuals are active … and there isn’t a lot of compounding effect in the engagements.
How does this change? Will the NOSTR developers make it long enough to let the network effects occur naturally? Are the financial incentives enough to make this ecosystem function?

2024-08-14 16:24:30

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(1) accountability is defused in most companies
(2) most of the workforce is completely oblivious to macroeconomics
(3) not enough proven examples of bitcoin clearly helping companies

2024-08-14 03:21:39

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Which RTJ is that?

2024-08-13 03:40:40

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The implications of this are critical. If there is debt against the asset, the debt gets paid - IN FULL - before equity claims are paid.
In a world saturated in more debt then there is future asset value, there is no equity in that system.
We see this show up in the claims on individuals’ productivity both in explicit taxes (income, property, sales, capital gains, etc.) as well as indirect taxes (inflation). The debt taken out by prior generations and large institutions without personal liability for the payment of the debt now has a priority claim on humanity. It must get paid off first.
Freedom is akin to equity. Anything above and beyond the debt is ours to keep. Unfortunately, because of the legal definition of debt, there is less equity value / freedom in the world today.
We’re all subject to the debt commitments we had no part in making.

2024-08-13 03:00:03

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Every company can’t employ this strategy. As the strategy gets crowded, the market will function similarly to debt markets … at the extreme, if ExxonMobil decides to deploy it, then capital will choose them over Marathon bitcoin mining doing the same strategy. The stability of cashflows is paramount to the fiat debt to build a treasury reserve strategy and bitcoin miners have nearly the opposite dynamic.

2024-08-13 01:20:32

The MicroStrategy #bitcoin playbook works for companies with steady, recurring cashflows. SaaS works. Oil and gas E&P works. Logistics works.
Bitcoin mining? Not so much. Cashflows are too volatile to cover the debt obligations.
I’m skeptical of MARA’s recent announcement. Makes me think they’re working to offset some short term liquidity issues. Also, they’ll use the added liquidity (if they can secure it) to ride this next bitcoin bull run and likely enter into a different business (i.e. energy).
But the MicroStrategy playbook works because MicroStrategy can DCA and smash buy without reliance on bitcoin price for their cashflows. This won’t end well for MARA without some major adjustments to their business model.

2024-08-12 22:15:52

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A friend of mine asked, “what are they REALLY going to do to him?”
I’m very interested in the answer to that question and hope he calls their bluff. Judging from his response on Twitter, I think he just might be daring them to do something tangible.
He knows The People are with him.

2024-08-12 17:30:26

When is @npub1s5y…6q7z going to get a segment on CNBC’s SquawkBox?
#note15l2…lhkr

2024-08-11 12:43:28

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Are you referring to selling or dying? Unclear by your message.

2024-08-11 12:38:55

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Glad to have you over here. What’s the secret to getting more followers so quickly?

2024-08-08 16:53:15

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I think we might need to lower our time preference. Look at the challenges facing Twitter right now…and they have advertising. Our alternative is buying bitcoin with the dollars being spent on NOSTR development. Growth isn’t the goal, quality is.

2024-08-08 03:08:27

Miners have to be feeling this low hash price … how many secured flexible credit financing (i.e. revolvers) to weather the immediate post-halving storm? If everyone has the fiat financing, does that just stave off the mass capitulation for later?

2024-08-07 15:48:14

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Do you think that if the Left was more aligned with the Democratic platforms of the 70s-2010 that you might have better luck convincing them that bitcoin circumvents the power of a large government / corporate machine oppressing the freedoms of the individual?
Soon after Occupy Wall Street, it feels like the Left aligned itself with a “govern me harder” platform vs. the previous focus of policies that prioritized the individual over the corporation.
Through the prior lens, pockets of Democrats might have been among the first groups to “get” bitcoin (i.e. Rage Against the Machine). However, now that the D platform aligns with a government / state-aligned corporation … a threat to centralized control is counter to the Left’s current priorities.

2024-08-07 14:20:37

Taleb has serious Bitcoin Derangement Syndrome. He violates two of his key ideas in this clip: (1) he’s dismissing btc on the basis of its volatility, the very trap that he talks about in Antifragile, and (2) dude is sharing his opinion without taking a long or short position on btc - skin in the game or GTFO. He once had great ideas but his hatred for bitcoin has destroyed his ability to act rationally.
#note168j…rxcz

2024-08-07 14:15:17

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Point of clarification — there were only a few of Olympic games before 1913. Wikipedia says only 3 games (1904, 1908, 1912) awarded pure gold medals and “they were smaller”.

2024-08-07 00:53:27

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The comment is relative (between two parties) not absolute (man vs. time).

2024-08-07 00:16:11

First rule of negotiation:
Control the clock.

2024-08-06 21:16:16

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Some thoughts:
Facebook started with high-end universities, tuned the initial experience to benefit care-free college students, and created its network effect through elite circles first.
Vine vs. TikTok? No idea.
Google Circles was trying to directly substitute for a product (Facebook) that had an insurmountable network effect. It was too hard to get everyone to start over on an entirely new platform for essentially the same experience. One social network was enough for most everyone.

2024-08-06 20:20:10

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Just be sure you’re allocating your capital efficiently! Would love to see Norway be a leader in bitcoin mining. Good luck!

2024-08-06 20:16:13

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“Put some skin in the game, Nassim. You wrote the book on it, didn’t you?” - Joe

2024-08-06 20:05:29

Bitcoin sets the risk-free rate … “doing nothing” is an entirely viable alternative to “doing something.”
#note1hau…q5vk

2024-08-06 19:56:19

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Not everywhere will be the first. The cost of convincing is real both in actual cost terms as well as opportunity cost terms.
Texas is huge for bitcoin … tons of waste, curtailed, and spare energy in a favorable political / regulatory regime. I’d expect that Texas’s success will be more convincing for other regimes missing out than the pleas of a small group of passionate citizens.
Regimes will get FOMO…good thing for you is that Norway is sophisticated so they’ll be one of the first regimes to realize what they’re missing.

2024-08-06 19:52:43

Bitcoin sets the risk-free rate.
That’s the product.
#note1dh4…ay24

2024-08-06 19:42:32

Debt is a priority claim on an asset.
Equity is the residual claim on the remaining value of the asset.
Simply, these are the legal definitions of the two basic types of financial instruments.

2024-08-06 19:16:38

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Norway has one of the most progressive views on energy and its commercialization in the world. They actively try to export their socialistic approach to energy commercialization to the rest of the world.
It is not surprising that they view bitcoin mining negatively given that bitcoin mining is difficult for any State apparatus to administer and manage.
It will be difficult for them to maintain this position over time but I am bearish on Norway being on the leading edge of jurisdictions embracing bitcoin mining.

2024-08-06 19:03:57

Everyone should be ALL IN on something during their life. 100% conviction and commitment.

2024-08-06 18:45:20

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This is a good observation re: incentives. The “problem” with the deflation of sound money economy is that competition drives the price down to the marginal cost of production of the lowest cost competitor.
In the software space, that means the cost of maintenance which is relatively low compared to the cost of standing the code up. If there is no ongoing profit, there is very little reason to take the risk and make the upfront investment to build.
The result of sound money is smaller, quality oriented goods, services, supply chains, and cultural contributions. As the growth & consumption oriented fiat model has yet to be phased out, there is a huge problem for the bitcoin developers who live in a fiat world but are building for a sound economy.
Props to those fighting the fight.

2024-08-06 18:34:01

https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

2024-08-06 16:32:46

One of the things that legacy social media has developed is each platform has its “job to be done.”
LinkedIn … professional
Twitter … current events / commentary
Instagram … showcase / dream
Facebook … community engagement
NOSTR clients don’t have that same definition. Whereas I held on to my LinkedIn profile far longer than the rest, it had clear methods of activating its usefulness - albeit using the legacy system.
While NOSTR is fun for bitcoiners to high five and lament each other, the next step - the most important step, IMO - is coordinating real actions between networked individuals.
I set up my real profile here for that purpose…I’m kinda skeptical sitting here on day 2…let’s see how it goes.
**Shouting into the abyss of the protocol to my 1 (probably bot) follower right now.**

2024-08-06 15:44:08

I agree and am interested in their discovery process. Is the process one full of strategic, collaborative decisions (i.e. current corporate approach) or is it ugly, clumsy, and urgent in the face of tumult?
#note1qmw…j9rs

2024-08-06 09:11:40

Bitcoin should set the “risk-free rate” which is used in all investment decisions for every individual, corporation, and government.
What happens if instead of discounting future cashflows by 10% annually everyone uses 50% against those same cashflows? And how would such a dramatic increase in the cost of money impact the size and timing of the cash flows?
The implications would be massive.

2024-08-06 02:51:34

I look forward to the day I can buy a 1/1 @npub1ndk…gk2v … appreciate the hard work
#note1htw…2f8l

2024-08-06 02:41:35

Just set ours up today. We’re playing that forever lottery.
#note1trz…sx79

2024-08-06 02:37:30

Deleted my last legacy social media account.
NOSTR only. Bitcoin only.