steve
Steve Carr, CFA

Money Manager | Wilderness Junkie | Seeking Clear Value

Public Key

npub10mvl2g6tu76q6k4hsmam6hrsvhu99guk4c0q9tlzu5789stvz7usy9alta

Profile Code

nprofile1qqs8ak04yd970dqdt2mcd7aat3cxt7zj5wt2u8sz4l3w20rjc9kp0wgucd88m

Publishing to

nos.lol

relay.damus.io

Author Public Key

npub10mvl2g6tu76q6k4hsmam6hrsvhu99guk4c0q9tlzu5789stvz7usy9alta

Show more details

Last Notes

2024-06-03 16:13:44

- reply

Agreed. I would add that the point at which I began taking myself less seriously and my work more seriously was freeing and meaningful.

2024-06-03 16:11:07

- reply

FWIW, my heart-felt prayers for wisdom almost always return solutions which I can’t imagine coming up with on my own.

2024-05-25 13:30:54

- reply

Although it seems like fractionally reserving would also cap demand for Treasuries sooner or later. When that demand dries up, maintaining the reserve currency would necessitate some kind of dollar backing, à la your proposal at the BPI this spring.
In the end it all comes back to fiscal discipline, which is downstream from national character. We haven’t balanced a budget in over two decades and the public appetite for bread & circuses seems strong as ever today.
I hope I’m wrong.

2024-05-25 13:10:03

- reply

Both Substack pieces are great; I haven’t read the paper yet.
Stablecoins seem like the best way to maintain the “Treasury Standard.” In time banks will have to join that party, especially if the market gets comfortable with something less than fully reserved stablecoins.
Banks would also argue that only they (as regulated entities) should be permitted to issue fractional stablecoins and if they succeed, there won’t be enough margin in fully reserved stablecoins for non-banks to compete.

2024-05-24 14:57:58

- reply

There’s no crime in not understanding something. But by the time you reach middle age you should have a decent grasp of what you know and what you don’t. What a moron.

2024-05-21 13:26:30

The #BitcoinPolicyInstitute has established the #PeertoPeerRightsFund to pay legal fees for the #SamuraiWallet defense.
You don’t have to use or even like Samurai to donate. This is about defending #P2P payments.
I’m in for 0.001422 sats - how about you? https://image.nostr.build/735e8d8859572408dc6dc8719ee5b47c15058254d7ce0b7877265bdbd4dcb75e.jpg

2024-05-18 12:08:35

#Treasury is buying back #debt again but this time it’s not with surplus #taxes and it’s not to reduce their indebtedness.
13 Jan 2000
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/ls335 https://image.nostr.build/6e944dc39f986adda8a10aba5f310ad7ea600116b7d0ce3604cdda412610ef29.jpg

2024-05-13 02:50:25

- reply

Large totalitarian regimes would overrun us. Believe me, I’m AnCap in my heart but our neighborhood suggests we need some stable entity to maintain our nuclear deterrence capabilities.

2024-05-05 19:40:12

- reply

The sound of her voice makes my skin crawl every time I hear it. Then it reminds me of Rocket J. Squirrel, which restores my happiness.

2024-05-02 13:29:52

“If you seek perception with a strong voice, if you seek her as silver and search for her as treasure, then you will understand the fear of the Lord and find the knowledge of God.”
#Proverbs 2:3-5

2024-04-27 15:57:30

- reply

Gen X here. It’s not that I disagree, it’s just that I’ve found that I’m happier when I see people as individuals. Just my two sats. ✌🏻

2024-04-26 18:24:06

- reply

Have there been any test cases yet, challenging AML on privacy grounds? Hate that angle, but it’s how the system works.

2024-04-26 18:01:48

- reply

Exactly. What’s the intrinsic value of the USD?

2024-04-26 02:13:30

#uniparty #note1sq8…y00g

2024-04-21 14:57:24

“It is better to dwell in a corner in the open air than with wrongdoing in plastered rooms and in a shared house.”
#Proverbs 21:8

2024-04-19 23:03:24

- reply

Wow. That shows you what I (don’t) know. Thank you for that. Seriously.

2024-04-19 15:34:38

- reply

Agreed. Fiber & healthy starches in proportion are useful carbs. It’s the sugar carbs that kill.

2024-04-19 15:30:51

“Cowardice possesses a weak man, and the soul of the idle man will be hungry.”
#Proverbs 19:15

2024-04-18 17:28:15

A downgrade to neutral is generous. The legacy international remittances business is the most vulnerable industry to a bearer asset with instantaneous settlement. WU would be better off ramping telegrams back up. #note134q…ee8z

2024-04-17 14:44:52

“Let a friend be with you on every occasion, and let brethren be useful in necessities, for they are begotten for this reason.”
#Proverbs 17:19

2024-04-16 22:35:27

- reply

Dogs are the best people.

2024-04-16 15:49:01

“Arrogance goes before destruction and folly before a fall.”
#Proverbs 16:30

2024-04-15 16:46:07

“He who rejects instruction hates himself, but he who gives heed to reproofs loves his soul.”
#Proverbs 15:37

2024-04-14 14:05:53

“He who oppresses the poor reproaches his maker, but he who honors him has mercy on the needy.” 14:31

2024-04-14 13:55:13

@npub18wg…r2wn is chair of the economics department at Ole Miss. We can only hope that policy makers take Dr. Hendrickson’s words to heart. #note1985…dsl8

2024-04-14 13:51:19

- reply

The most succinct and articulate global macro rationale for Bitcoin I’ve heard. Sharing on LinkedIn. Thank you.

2024-04-14 01:49:57

“A man who begins to give aid heartily is better than he who only promises and leads another to hope.” 13:13

2024-04-12 13:43:05

- reply

Oops - 12:20

2024-04-12 13:42:06

“There are those who wound with a sword as they speak, But the tongues of the wise heal.” 12:31

2024-04-11 15:21:09

- reply

Made my first donation to OpenSats from my Strike a few days ago. More to come. 🫡

2024-04-07 05:54:11

- reply

mightier than the sword

2024-04-03 19:16:06

- reply

The WWII generation is like this country’s last dose of antipsychotics.

2024-03-27 19:35:35

- reply

Good Lord. The man looks 48.

2024-03-12 12:11:08

Bitcoin Atlantis sounds amazing. I’m not a developer but I really want to encourage all those working to preserve and strengthen Bitcoin: you’re actually restoring hope for millions (soon billions) of us. I just gave to @npub10pe…n34f for the first time. What can you do? #note16u3…reda

2024-03-05 13:34:28

Well played, @npub1tft…xar5, well played. https://image.nostr.build/a60153056598fe0687ab01863a0a202e06428edaf24f61c2383121e1b20e3525.jpg

2024-03-04 08:49:09

How devaluation starts:
April 18 will be the 25th anniversary of the current Swiss constitution’s adoption. With that ratification, the #franc became fully fiat.
Yesterday, 58.2% of Swiss voted to add a 13th monthly federal pension payment, while a second initiative to raise the retirement age and begin tying it to life expectancy failed, garnering only 25.3% of votes.
Unless the #Swiss either raise taxes or cut other spending, the supply of franc will have to rise. Budgets must always balance: if not in nominal terms, then in real terms.

2024-03-02 18:24:59

- reply

On the week, that’s a net +30,056 BTC. At a very rough average price of $55,000 that’s $1.65B. If the average market cap for the week was $1.1T, the week’s inflows were ~0.15%. It’s not clear to me that we’ve started to see meaningful ETF inflows yet. I think the pump M-W was mainly supply: LT hodlers staying disciplined.

2024-03-01 11:29:47

- reply

This is great stuff. Thank you!
Trading on technical indicators with equities can make sense but it shouldn’t translate readily to BTC. The key BTC theses should produce HODLers, not traders. I know from conversations that the 3-day, 25% run M-Th prompted trading responses.

2024-02-29 11:33:08

Of course Reuters quotes Holly Bender of the Sierra Club and Elizabeth Warren but why not @npub13lk…lpsy? Is this #journalism?
https://www.reuters.com/legal/crypto-miner-lawsuit-sets-back-us-effort-track-booming-power-use-2024-02-28/

2024-02-29 01:43:05

- reply

I could listen to @npub1d3f…r4xv for hours* on end. Never BS, always well-reasoned.
*OK, maybe just a lot of minutes, but I mean a LOT of minutes.

2024-02-29 01:36:11

- reply

Lieutenant Danny!

2024-02-28 11:47:45

- reply

Yeah, I screwed up and somehow didn’t reply to the thread but created a new note. Anyway it was your repost of Trey Walsh’s note. FWIW, I think Trey makes an important point about being consistent. My counter went to threat asymmetry: while Wall Street has NGU and ETF concentration as attack vectors, Warren and Trudeau have bank accounts and prisons.
We’re all on team orange. 👊🏻

2024-02-28 05:59:49

https://image.nostr.build/ca3ce82970cca160a82868af80c6412f4b17271511a851dfd532171e5195f858.jpg

2024-02-27 18:14:45

- reply

Long kids, short fiat

2024-02-23 15:45:37

- reply

He’s playing to his base and they don’t yet understand how the feds b*tch slap USD. It’s an icon of patriotism for them. So much education is still needed.

2024-02-23 00:02:43

- reply

Haven’t thought about intranets in many moons - thanks for the walk down memory lane.

2024-02-19 14:46:55

@npub15m9…q643 That’s a great observation. I can only offer my perspective, so for what it’s worth: while coopting, centralizing, and corrupting by those who have outsized influence are forces worth fighting, the government’s explicit power to coerce is a much bigger threat. In my sense - and in only my sense - many progressives seem to want to use government power to satisfy their passions for justice, and believe that having a simple majority of a voting populace on their side somehow absolves them of the moral evil of coercion. However, I see coercion as the fundamentally dehumanizing social force.
Private charity is alive and well; I want to affirm my progressive friends’ senses of justice and work with them where I can to bring about better outcomes for people, but without resorting to control.

2024-02-19 04:30:37

Watch this ASAP and for the love of all things holy, stop buying shit made in communist countries. Western demand for cheap goods has helped fund the dehumanization of millions.
https://www.beyondutopiadoc.com

2024-02-18 15:25:55

There are two political choices:
1) the sovereign individual
2) might makes right
Individuals can choose to subject themselves to groups and moral codes.
The #uniparty chooses 2.

2024-02-18 07:34:32

- reply

The older I get the more convinced I am that coercion, in any direction, is the fundamentally dehumanizing social force.

2024-02-16 20:42:05

https://www.wsj.com/finance/the-u-s-government-will-soon-spend-more-on-interest-payments-than-defense-ee6fbeec

2024-02-14 20:27:53

- reply

I feel a sense of financial peace because as @fossgregfoss says, I own CDS on the whole fiat system.

2024-02-07 16:43:41

- reply

I always try to assume ignorance before concluding malice is at play. CL is a malicious rent-seeker who’s starting to see the writing on the wall.

2024-01-28 05:06:43

- reply

Excellent article and a daunting task.

2024-01-19 18:20:03

- reply

The cumulative scale is on the righthand side whereas weekly remittances is left. 2011 looks to be the base year of the graph, so zero on the cumulative.

2024-01-17 12:39:35

I sent this to a friend I’ve been trying to orange pill since the lows following the FTX debacle. He was lamenting not buying when I told him about BTC at $17k in late November 2022.
“Don’t sweat missing $17k. There is a monetary (inflation) premium baked into the prices of gold, stocks, and real estate which is distinct from their intrinsic values. In time Bitcoin can capture that inflation premium. And that premium is apart from any value associated with its current and future utility as a medium of exchange.
Let’s say the inflation premium is ~$50T globally. For context, the global value of all debt is ~$400T. Bitcoin’s current market capitalization is $840B. That suggests 59x upside on the inflation premium alone, or $2.5M per BTC. I’m assuming that the timeframe to realize this price is 15-20 years, but the $2.5M is in today’s $US, not inflated future dollars.
Stocks and real estate won’t crash as a result, but their valuations will be constrained to the cash flows from their businesses & rents, respectively. Gold’s intrinsic value is consumer, industrial, and apocalyptic but it’s much more purely priced as an inflation hedge than either stocks or real estate.”

2024-01-15 17:33:29

Reminder that @npub1k7v…c04l ‘s 40k by the halving px forecast ain’t wrong yet. Use the opportunity to keep stacking - it’s a gift.

2024-01-14 06:16:05

- reply

I obey the state’s laws because I risk losing things I value if I didn’t. In those cases when my moral obligations match with their laws, it’s purely coincidental.

2024-01-07 14:57:01

- reply

It was a great interview!

2023-12-25 03:14:35

- reply

Merry Christmas! This is beautiful - where is it?

2023-12-24 15:07:24

Quote of the year nominee from Secretary Yellen’s Senate testimony:
[Senator Ron Johnson: "You are going to drive the debt to $50 trillion."]
👉🏻 Yellen: "Yes, but what I believe is the single most important metric for judging the fiscal stance of the country is real net interest as a share of GDP."

2023-12-09 21:29:16

- reply

What is the rude awakening? I’m trying to learn about coin joining.

2023-11-17 12:34:26

- reply

At this point wearing a suit and tie for work feels like a public confession that you hope to only add value at the margin.

2023-11-15 00:42:36

- reply

Dang. I had hopes for her.

2023-11-11 01:02:03

- reply

As soon as I finish Broken Money I will be available to read the screen play of your early years. Seriously - have you thought about it?

2023-11-03 01:36:02

- reply

Fox guarding chicken coop declares chickens safe

2023-10-29 20:55:08

My most frequent orange-pilling objections:
1) “blah, blah, blah, Warren Buffett…”
2) I can’t understand it
3) “blah, blah, blah SBF…”

2023-10-24 03:30:57

- reply

The sense of unrelatedness between laws and morality has never been greater for me than it is now.

2023-10-22 04:51:44

- reply

Perhaps a deeply unpopular and nihilistic opinion but given that money = time, if Bitcoin loses to fiat the net position of human consciousness might be negative.
Of course most of the blame would go to the AI + government, but at some point the oppressed bear the responsibility to draw a line in the sand and enforce it. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.
Titanium plates containing the white paper or Broken Money are noble ideas, but on what basis should we hope future humans would behave differently?

2023-10-17 17:21:51

- reply

“Guys, if we all just agree to place our faith in these slips of green paper, everything will work again.”

2023-10-16 06:04:44

- reply

Cynical opportunism, exploitation, treachery

2023-10-04 21:45:30

- reply

I just bought The Bitcoin Standard with sats over the Lightening Network using my Strike app - my first ever BTC as medium of exchange transaction. It was seamless and immediate. We live in remarkable and hopeful times!

2023-09-28 19:17:08

- reply

Jeff Snyder has been covering this on his show - PBoC fighting Yuan deterioration vs. Eurodollar. Good luck, commies.

2023-09-12 05:57:31

- reply

Will Swan’s multisig accommodate BTC in IRAs + self-custody BTC in a single vault?

2023-08-29 17:30:16

- reply

This guy reminds me that moron is a terribly underutilized word. Lyn’s book just arrived last night and I can’t wait to dig in.

2023-08-29 16:34:29

- reply

Happy birthday, doc. Remember: being one day older only matters if you’re a banana.

2023-07-02 15:14:39

- reply

#nostr is to #twitter “innovation” what #bitcoin is to fiat liquidity.

2023-06-30 07:40:25

- reply

“Now we can start a fire to roast the eggplant!”

2023-06-24 16:30:15

#dogma https://nostr.build/i/b1860fba51a29c5d256d0a1ff66fe92efd1ca420ab8e8c4f6ebb69d5f688476f.jpg

2023-06-19 17:07:12

Now this is a new federal holiday I can get behind wholeheartedly - more worthy than at least four other existing holidays, IMO.
You might prefer to add others, but in my view freedom is the essential quality which allows us to live fully as humans. I can’t think of any other single event in our nation’s history which is more purely emblematic of freedom than what enslaved Americans began to realize in Galveston 158 years ago today.
Redemptive of a truly evil practice, sorrow that it took so long to begin rectifying, and incomplete, sure, but also joy. #Juneteenth seems like something we call all celebrate. https://nostr.build/i/fb9ac5c02fc94d04ef035df0fc8c24cc077df32a28049f15992e7be535697949.jpg

2023-05-26 05:43:29

- reply

Ah, but is it really still theft after they launder the confiscations through a republican democracy?

2023-05-19 20:07:23

- reply

Bitcoin is an exercise in freedom. Democracy is the slowest way we’ve invented to erode freedom.

2023-05-17 15:12:26

- reply

I watched your interview then tried to sign up at Strike but got this bizarre lack of explanation:
Hi Steve,
As we mentioned in our previous message, your request was denied as we were unable to authenticate your account.
The account verification process is based on an assessment of different qualifications. Due to compliance reasons, we are unable to provide further information. Our customer support team can only confirm that we sent this message and assist with technical issues only.
Support cannot reverse this decision, nor can they share any more details related to this matter.
Best regards,
The Strike Team

2023-05-17 11:18:18

- reply

What if you pay the $3,300 and at the end of the dinner pass them $3,400 invoices for Bitcoin security consulting services?

2023-05-16 21:57:32

- reply

I think Jack is one of the brightest, most innovative minds our country has - big fan. One bone to pick: the Fed’s recent actions were the proximal causes, but the ultimate cause is the their dual mandate. Our central bank is literally forced to be the enabler for a profligate Congress.

2023-05-16 12:49:50

- reply

It won’t be a actual default. They’ll furlough certain non-essential federal workers who will eventually get paid their back wages. Then they’ll all agree to raise the ceiling again so each side can have something to brag about. Pure theater. See 2011.

2023-05-11 16:26:18

- reply

I get that the Fed has blown it, but they’re stuck with this stupid dual mandate which means they have to continually clean up after Congress spends like drunk sailors on shore leave.

2023-05-11 16:23:02

- reply

I try to follow Peterson’s guidance to assume ignorance before malice when you know someone’s mistaken. It gets harder everyday for me to assume Schiff’s anti-Bitcoin fetish is based in ignorance. He’s talking his book.

2023-05-03 14:16:18

- reply

Apple Pod listener, now a YouTube subscriber. Keep fighting the good fight!

2023-05-03 14:12:09

- reply

This is one of the most commonly misquoted sayings: “For the LOVE of money is A root of ALL KINDS of evil.” - St. Paul. Nor do I see anything inconsistent with Christ’s teachings in Francisco’s / Rand’s excellent summary (the Parable of the Talents fits particularly well here).

2023-04-12 15:31:57

GM. #inflation is a regressive #tax. #Bitcoin fixes this.
Also,
BD. La #inflación es un impuesto regresivo. #Bitcoin soluciona esto.

2023-04-07 22:30:02

https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_174646ac530d90b6444dab712093f40285fe9173d5ddd57e134cf53749a2a60f.jpg
TL;DR: this rubric helps us characterize #stocks in our universes for each of our investment strategies. I hope you find it useful.
We use a fundamental factor scoring system (worst: 0 to best: 5) to suggest the #quality of the company. Then we project worst case & best case 5 year price targets to estimate the upside potential.
High quality companies (4s & 5s) with attractive upside to our worst case scenario never automatically qualify for #investment, but they do get flagged for deeper #fundamentalanalysis. Good #companies with currently unattractive stock price upsides are considered for our "Bullpen." We are neither deep value investors, nor do we short stocks.

2023-04-06 18:49:31

At this point in the #Inflation battle I'd like to be able to say that #ModernMonetaryTheory has lower odds of launching a successful comeback than the Hannah Montana franchise, but I'm preparing to be disappointed.

2023-04-04 21:29:45

https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_07af938343097b1ae978fe57e68666f4e6ac29db624935633d2d50e7338ae391.jpg

2023-04-03 14:06:58

GM
As the US drained the strategic #petroleum reserve to mitigate price spikes resulting from the #Russian oil embargo, #opec was running Muhammad Ali’s rope-a-dope strategy.
After yesterday’s production cut announcement, the score is officially:
OPEC - 1
US #petrodollar - 0

2023-04-01 22:14:10

This is long and complex but the author has a keen understanding of how capital flows globally.
TL;DR: the rapidity of withdrawals which suddenly ruined U.S. banks two weeks ago might have been coordinated and could happen again.
http://www.deepthroatipo.com/how-to-wreck-a-big-old-gsib-bank/

2023-04-01 11:19:23

Honest question: why must bitcoin be seen as either / or - as a money or an investment? Interest Rate Parity shows how even established fiats attract capital for short term investments, and Bitcoin offers long term structural potential of 2-3 orders of magnitude greater than fiat. For the foreseeable future it looks like both to me. What am I missing?

2023-04-01 03:55:53

- reply

100% - I just worry about how suddenly it might happen.

2023-03-25 19:38:39

$USD - the cutest kitten at the fiddle factory

2023-03-19 23:49:33

#inflation is an evil regressive #tax.