David Hood

Likes public data, Aotearoa New Zealand, and informed communities. #openData #NewZealand #Aotearoa #rstats

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Last Notes

2024-09-15 04:11:46

Writing a thing on thinking about covid response counterfactuals.
Some while back I mentioned Bhutan had an even greater improvement in Global Health Index score than NZ from 2019 to 2021.
This is unrelated (Our World in Data), total tests per case 2020 & 2021
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/113/139/140/870/114/009/original/e66a6781a24f564a.png

2024-08-16 22:50:34

If you use any of the data sets in the NZ Covid Data Portal, you might want to download the latest versions now and enquire about future access https://www.stats.govt.nz/experimental/covid-19-data-portal/
I have already written asking about weekly deaths from all cause mortalitym as this is the source of that data.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/973/670/780/668/246/original/2c23c6127dad4f6c.png

2024-08-10 01:42:15

PSA:
For those that see scary claims the XDV.1 variant is a Delta/ Omicron recombination (which these days would be alarming), the source of these claims seem to be AI systems writing bogus blog posts drawing on the statistically alphabetically similar code names XD (from 2022) and XDV.
Stand down.

2024-07-28 04:24:31

The really, really low period of hospital admissions relative to wastewater that coincided with the dominance of the JN.1 period may be coming to an end. (this does not separate any reasons around JN.1 increased wastewater effects vs decreased severity, etc)
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/861/736/767/008/423/original/cb3a2fce48fba39f.jpg

2024-06-28 04:29:15

As another case of data sources breaking at the same time as the "back office" public service is cut back, I've realised the Stats NZ Open Data API that I was using to automatically download all cause mortality has not been updated beyond data to 19 May. The public view/manual download has.

2024-06-28 00:37:43

Kids (0 to 9 age) have not seen the same reduction in risk from hospitalisation due to covid as older age groups, because there are a constant supply of infants added to this cohort who are meeting covid for the first time with untrained immune systems.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/690/975/105/114/489/original/1958961c7881585c.jpg

2024-06-27 23:15:39

Based on the change from last week to this week, the "with in hospital" on Sunday night is still current (as it was a year ago) but full completeness of "hospitalisation for" looks to have gone from 2 to 3 months (this always needed case resolution so was slow).

2024-06-27 22:14:36

So with the government's deliberation reduction in back office health staff as part of the plan to shrink the public sector, people should probably recheck any ideas about time lag of datasets compared to what NZ had a year ago or more. Though this could be a temporary blip
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/690/411/878/474/802/original/3ee4a661f01242c0.png
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/690/413/975/393/604/original/adebbc32d22c3cea.png

2024-06-27 11:45:51

Following a wise suggestion that the mystery several thousand new covid cases that were in the newly added cases total for the week but not in the last seven days daily totals might be delayed reporting of older cases, I checked versions of the MoH Github repo.
Comparing the 18th June to the 25th June state of the cases file there are two periods of change. 2022 and May/June 2024. But the 2022 changes do not involve any changes to the daily totals. 1/3
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/687/928/435/786/573/original/a6b4ea3b21eb0977.png

2024-06-27 06:28:56

Also with reference to Monday's doubtful total reported new cases headline number for NZ, covid in wastewater dropped significantly last week, making that 8943 total new cases figure look even more unlikely.
p.s. KP.3 takeover clearly slower than JN.1
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/686/693/216/387/880/original/24ae97453f66624e.png
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/686/694/724/142/030/original/b995b49fdce41bb5.png

2024-06-25 03:51:50

On Monday the current cases covid page listed 8943 new cases reported in the last week (up 83% !!!). It also suspiciously listed the 7-day rolling average as 510.
The MoH GitHub archive was (today) updated for this period a few hours ago & supports that 8943 is some kind of error
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/674/754/235/965/855/original/dba40a780dbc53d7.png

2024-06-24 05:29:12

People covid +ve and are in NZ hospital (so with, not for) down 14% this Sunday night compared to last. Highly likely when deaths finalised they will be down because of the lower number added to the in process number.
From the demographics page a couple of kids look to have been discharged from ICU last week

2024-06-23 09:12:44

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@npub1ksv…7h3s Claoutis are different enough from crumbles and nice in their own right
https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/281658/apple-clafoutis/

2024-06-23 09:10:55

New Zealand is still engaging in disease reduction as a competitive national sport. Across all notifiable diseases, be they respiratory, waterborne, or other transmission, the total monthly notified cases changed dramatically in 2020 and that change is still holding.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/664/681/534/446/439/original/ca6592373e1bcee2.png

2024-06-21 23:48:22

In XKCD simple English
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/656/807/161/904/284/original/843ecc8a3ff139f2.png

2024-06-21 10:51:16

Here is another form of climate stripe- this is the average annual amount in centimetres local sea levels have risen since 1902, with the colour being the year (blue oldest to yellow as present).
About 28 cm rise from 1902 to 2023
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/653/752/749/710/017/original/9fe7660f112faf0b.png

2024-06-20 06:26:18

Nationally, NZ wastewater at poops.nz is back down below last Christmas (but still high for the last 17 months).
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/647/049/276/631/402/original/38a4c6261a652dc0.png

2024-06-18 01:45:11

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@npub1e8d…xm9v
This, specifically, is admissions for covid, so excludes influenza, RSV etc (which we know there are a bunch of admissions for also in the sentinel hospital that publishes data)

2024-06-18 01:18:44

Respiratory NZ hospital admission for covid shiny app updated:
- current wave peak passed
- nationally, equivalent peak admissions to Christmas
- rise to peak happened over a much shorter time than Christmas.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/634/514/458/522/390/original/cb848dc67fc8611e.png

2024-06-17 08:18:05

Across all the various indicators today is more evidence NZ has peaked for this wave, though risk had not dropped a lot yet.
Deaths, as a lagging indicator, look like they are going to be up for this week when that data comes through.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/630/500/922/781/502/original/245566a22d112ed5.png

2024-06-13 07:07:06

In covid wastewater levels, Hamilton is going off.
Nationally a bounce back up to above Christmas but below a few weeks ago.

2024-06-09 12:06:25

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@npub193f…qcq6 Glad it wasn't to bad for you

2024-06-09 08:37:55

It has been a while since I looked at 30-90 day reinfection rates. It looks a lot like KP.2/KP.3 has picked off most of the currently vulnerable people (as happens with a surge in recent reinfections) & the rate has dropped again, which backs up the other evidence of wave peaking
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/585/268/930/927/983/original/b00999658b4b3862.jpg

2024-06-07 03:13:01

I noticed the GitHub covid cases repo was updated, after a couple of weeks.
Over the past 60 days, the average daily proportion of infections reported by 70+ people that are first infections is 55% (standard deviation 5.1%).
I am surprised there's still so many with no prior infection reporting

2024-06-06 06:32:48

Week to 2nd June is the second week of national wastewater decline, but check you local catchment/region for how far through the wave at poops.nz
Multiweek trend still not at peak, but then I was saying this week or next for that, not last week.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/567/796/393/770/850/original/83628ada3be70a03.png
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/567/798/105/064/732/original/0f5753de145c70cf.png
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/567/802/265/811/985/original/587f03bd9d53eeb9.jpg

2024-06-06 02:22:00

Wastewater covid testing and variant sequencing reported to be continued to be funded (and RAT tests until Sept)
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/govt-strengthens-covid-19-preparedness

2024-06-06 01:43:02

At around 20 minutes Shane Reti confirms no change to covid vaccine eligibility
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/518796/watch-shane-reti-announces-30m-radiology-boost

2024-06-04 23:29:54

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@npub1agg…tjwy I hate to say it, but under the current settings the return to work of infectious people could cause more spread (though of a lesser degree than the main rise)

2024-06-04 08:20:02

NZ national covid wave looks to be peaking. Of course, locally some parts of the country are further or less far along this wave, so where you are matter a lot to risk (if important to you, consult the map view at poops.nz for local info)
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/556/893/418/233/810/original/444e4d043ca5245e.png

2024-05-23 06:42:36

From poops.nz national covid wastewater levels (copies per day per person) above anything seen since the end of 2022.

2024-05-19 01:40:28

Elsewhere, there are claims being made (based on English data) about Cryptospirdium following exactly 9 months after covid peaks. There is no such relationship here, nor in other countries I checked.
I think it is just random patterns within the English shit contamination of privatised water.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/464/727/940/382/812/original/311109361340c0cd.jpg

2024-05-14 02:48:56

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@npub142a…rlht I do, but. I don't look at the online version for comparison.

2024-05-13 06:11:41

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Word of warning for anyone still using public covid data- the shiny app has been updated for the last few weeks, but the individual daily admissions column is not available (there is still admissions per pop and rolling admissions, so data is available it is more processing pipelines might break).

2024-05-13 04:51:58

And in "no surprise with a new variant takeover", The NZ current cases page is showing change from Monday 6th to Monday 13th:
From 327 average daily reported cases last week to 477 today.
From 116 in hospital with covid on Sunday night last week to 152 this week.

2024-05-12 12:24:02

A prerequisite for a likely aurora is the IMF (right hand column) to be negative.
And ATM it isn't http://www.dunedinaurora.nz/index.php

2024-05-12 11:43:38

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@npub1c8u…04lf The IMF needs to flip to negative, and it isn't ATM

2024-05-12 10:19:57

A trusted source has told of pink light leaking out between the plentiful cloud cover in the Dunedin area looking south where there isn't light pollution- First aurora message of the night to be sent to me.

2024-05-12 03:38:43

Aurora forecast (as of noon NZ time) KP8/G4 6pm-9pm (NZ time), KP9/G5 9pm-midnight.
Cloud forecast... outlook unclear.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/425/554/036/156/443/original/ea364cf916c0ddff.png
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/425/557/290/782/668/original/be7a76a5bc9f5075.png
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/425/560/076/406/985/original/75076d682ee3cc16.png

2024-05-11 10:15:44

My personal contribution from Ōtepoti.
Went north from North East Valley along Mount Cargill Road until the street lights ran out. Both to get out from the ground level mistiness and the city lights. My trusty Canon SX60 point and click, a tripod, and a 15 second exposure.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/421/456/358/299/766/original/c715ea9069c45a22.jpg

2024-05-11 08:17:29

A friend is seeing (in the twilight) pink and green looking south from the north side of Otago Harbour over harbour cone.
Rubbish cellphone photo, as they put it, but first aurora sighting of the evening I have heard of
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/420/993/522/870/072/original/bdb12271adcfde11.png

2024-05-11 06:49:40

Astronomical night (end of it getting fully dark) Auckland 6:54pm, Dunedin 7:04pm.
You have nothing to lose by looking for Aurora at an hour suited to both old and young alike.

2024-05-11 00:35:12

For this evening, based on present data-
- likely cloud cover south of Dunedin otherwise clear
- nationwide potential to see Aurora, but Auckland latitudes might want to avoid local light pollution.
- start picking your photogenic foreground shots.

2024-05-10 09:21:01

The latest NOAA detailed forecast I've seen is for peaking between 6 and 9pm on Saturday evening NZ time, which is pretty excellent for early night viewing. https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt

2024-05-10 02:05:57

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@npub1h2y…nk8y If it actual happens as a G4, then Auckland if you are in a dark skies area (particularly w.r.t. the South) visible.

2024-05-10 01:34:21

Potential G4 level aurora event tonight/tomorrow night. G4 is North Island visible.

2024-05-09 06:26:31

FWIW, joining the worldwide trend, NZ wastewater concentrations of covid took a big jump last week, likely (based on growth rates) accompanying the fall from dominance of original JN.1 and rise of other variants.
Screenshot from poops.nz
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/409/231/322/531/976/original/ac632fd44e6509f0.png

2024-04-30 07:40:40

Happy Birthday from the both of us. (thus explains what should be some money in your bank account)

2024-04-25 21:43:16

I am doing the 30 day chart challenge, and I thought my response to todays theme "ai" might be useful to others as a chart about how the real world of facts, truth, and causality is irrelevant and unknown to generative ai, so I'm sharing it here. I contrasted generative ai supplied data with true data about the real world.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/333/563/153/310/156/original/d96bec8865614736.jpg

2024-04-20 11:58:48

Here's another "at a glance" graph I'm doing for the covid status report site revamp- this one shows the twenty (almost) most recent weeks for which there is all cause mortality and covid deaths, and shows the pre-covid trend for the week based on 2013-2019.
(almost, because excluding most recent week as incomplete)
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/302/953/529/770/551/original/6e1f0ffee5a1330c.jpg

2024-04-20 04:03:34

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@npub1uyj…92uc The Sunday midnight call was because reports are Monday afternoon- when reporting was daily it was the night before the report. Still is.

2024-04-19 09:38:11

Remember when the country functionally ran out of free rapid antigen tests in Feb/March?
That shows up in the data of total RAT reports- green line on this. Now looks to be more or less back to normal.
(I won't be keeping RATS on the new key indicators graph, but thought I would share it in development)
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/296/737/875/231/280/original/d820e866cba7f2c8.jpg

2024-04-19 08:46:43

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@npub1l0n…f8s9 Could be a bit of both.

2024-04-18 02:31:16

I am working up a new "current covid knowledge at a glance" figure, due to changing data availability.
A couple of points-
JN.1 population evidence matches other pops & clinical evidence of giving higher wastewater.
Deaths too variable & lagged to be a useful short term indicator
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/289/397/513/296/299/original/b06dcecb89f215c2.jpg

2024-03-26 05:56:10

For the latest in the Gibson Albatross around my neck, I sent the letter, available in the archive as onscreen text or pdf, to the editor, and the journal editor would like it submitted as a comment with author right of reply closing the conversation. So I will rewrite, again, with that fate in mind
https://github.com/thoughtfulbloke/letter2ed

2024-03-26 01:11:05

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@npub1kje…6dht For general R learning materials, rather than specifically statistical tests or network analysis, there is the R for social scientists curriculum https://datacarpentry.org/r-socialsci/

2024-03-23 22:08:45

There is a possibility (at this stage only a possibility, i.e. can happen, not will happen) of the Aurora Australis being seen from the upper North Island Monday/Tuesday
(source Hauraki Gulf Weather on Twitter)

2024-03-23 00:23:47

With Sweden's official annual mortality data out, on the understanding I am not willing to project 2013-2019 beyond 2023-
While Sweden's 2023 excess vs. trend is above NZ's, it within variation in precovid years from trend, so like NZ can be said to be living with covid as ongoing threat vs acute.
We won't know (have official data) if low vaccination countries are near normal until midyear
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/141/911/694/406/957/original/3bc12cda9e8e9ed0.png

2024-03-21 04:48:49

Finally, covid levels in Dunedin are dropping (poops.nz has updated for the week)
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/131/629/621/382/727/original/a3911611edc88fbb.png

2024-03-18 04:22:05

NZ Covid hospitalisations continue to edge down, but I also want to note wastewater levels in Otago & Southland are really high (and I know a bunch of families with younger ages recently hit)
I thought the people in hospital with covid graph might be useful visualised since early 2023
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/114/535/574/573/315/original/28d18cfdc6414271.png

2024-03-01 00:41:17

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@npub1fha…3ru0 This one (Called the Statistical Handbook) is often described as the precursor to the Yearbooks. It does contain the same kind of information.

2024-03-01 00:28:11

In my lunchtime I held a copy of the 1890 Statistical Handbook of New Zealand in my hand, which is the oldest tutorial published in New Zealand that I know of for standardising death rates by age against a reference population. OCRed digitised version at https://www3.stats.govt.nz/historic_publications/1890-official-handbook/1890-official-handbook.html
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/112/017/359/364/510/464/original/eeede59a9c912ca1.jpg

2024-02-21 08:25:29

I updated the "For 250 years death rates by age have been used to check mortality, and if you use them the claims of 17% excess for NZ go away because it is actually more living old people" graph with the full annual data just out.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/111/968/276/152/245/922/original/0cb278cd2d8a7fdc.png

2024-02-08 11:00:32

I am not going to get my submission to the NZ covid commission in until mid period- early March. But I will, as someone with thoughts about lessons that should be learnt for the future, get in a submission. As maybe should you.
https://haveyoursay.covid19lessons.royalcommission.nz

2024-02-07 02:02:10

If you hear people talking about how much more likely a double boosted NZ person is to die than a person who has had one covid dose, keep in mind the median age age of single dose people is 11. The median age of double boosted people is around 70. It is not an immortality potion.

2024-02-02 06:11:42

While I am normally in favour of public enquiries about things, there is an assumption of adults seeking truth being in charge. There are 2 groups that seem to be celebrating ACT's new terms right now. Antivaxers at the prospect of getting their bogus math showcase, and Fascists fantasicing about executing people.
So if any sane person, prepared to limit themselves to non-made up maths, is presenting and needs help with figures etc, then let me know.

2024-01-31 01:54:01

Free RAT covid tests extended from end-Feb to end-June
https://www.tewhatuora.govt.nz/whats-happening/news-and-updates/health-new-zealand-te-whatu-ora-media-statement/

2024-01-26 23:08:15

NZ had a 1/3ish reduction in respiratory deaths in 2020, what with the stopping a bunch of other respiratory diseases as a side effect of going home for longer than covid's life cycle and having border quarantine for longer than covid's lifecycle.
We, together, did that.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/111/824/527/125/121/707/original/6ad8ff6c40d897cd.png

2024-01-18 05:30:23

Ōtepoti, the free RATS from the Garden’s corner pharmacy don’t expire in March 7th, likely after the returning tertiary students covid wave

2024-01-02 20:14:16

The OECD have released their own Age Standardised Mortality Rate report, basically confirming all the criticisms people have had of their deaths / average deaths 2015-2019 measure used to track the pandemic. Other countries than NZ did better than expected, NZ just best of the best.
https://one.oecd.org/document/DELSA/HEA/WD/HWP(2023)15/en/pdf

2023-12-21 22:39:34

Christmas week covid prevalence estimate.
About 2% of the population infectious. Gathering of random 12 folk w. no precautions is about 22% for someone +ve.
Stay home if symptoms = lower risk.
Testing on day without symptoms = lower risk
Outside = lower risk
Also because covid flows along connections & gatherings non-random:
If associates +ve or symptoms = higher risk.
If nobody in household has symptoms/+ve = lower risk
(canary in coalmine group infection).
Enjoy your white wine in the sun.

2023-12-09 09:39:56

For some while I have been encouraging people to wait for the availability of hypothetical future vaccines, but to boost your immunity while you can.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/111/549/555/287/248/326/original/36f665c2402cef85.jpeg

2023-11-29 07:22:03

Prep for upcoming antivax disinfo-
NZ Average weekly death rates per million people:
Age: vax era/pre-covid
Under 60s: 23.1/23.6
60-79: 262.8/269.0
80+: 1850.7/1933.9
vax era = Feb 21 - Sep 23
pre-covid = Feb 17 - Sep 19
Every age group is lower in vax era
NZ worst weekly death rate per million people:
Age: vax era/pre-covid
Under 60s: 30.5/30.8
60-79: 326.7/347.6
80+: 2808.2/2815.0
vax era = Feb 21 - Sep 23
pre-covid = Feb 17 - Sep 19
Every age group is lower in vax era

2023-11-23 03:06:34

Nationwide poops.nz covid in wastewater not dropping largely being driven by Auckland not dropping
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/111/457/414/694/400/702/original/7d0d2aac4ff5fc23.png

2023-11-14 01:30:04

I am running a Plotting and Programming in Python course
Wednesday afternoon/Thursday morning, so spent the morning reviewing the materials starting from first install python.
http://swcarpentry.github.io/python-novice-gapminder/

2023-11-13 02:34:57

NZ Reported covid cases pretty stable (849 per day vs 838 last week) but hospitalisations (people who are in hospital with a current covid infection, so bed use not reason for being there) up from 212 to 284. 34% rise.
RAT results uploaded up from 799/day last week to 901/day this week.

2023-11-06 02:56:01

Github data not updated for detail yet, but the seven day average of reported covid cases is up 43% since last week.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/111/361/113/736/966/244/original/4e88b28aa0a9352f.png

2023-11-02 06:12:25

With a very sudden rise in both covid in wastewater (see poops.nz for your area) and cases (with a little time lag that puts them outside the wastewater report window) I sincerely think it looks like the wave seen in Victoria is here.
If you are 6 months without vaccine or covid and hadn't gotten around to a booster, you might want to see about that.
More detail tomorrow when I have had a chance to look into things (need to fix some raw data changes in my data pipeline).
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/111/339/230/494/900/290/original/8b36744ff547f8b8.png
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/111/339/235/819/336/625/original/031e5a908241c713.png

2023-10-24 01:18:10

As part of shifting from NZ dot stat and infoshare for providing statistical information, StatsNZ are proposing to add a registration login for users. I expressed my concern in the beta focus group meeting, but am writing to them, and if anyone wants to add a sentence about their concerns (or just I share these concerns) you can at https://forms.office.com/r/TTGXVC53ja
@npub18p3…t9gh this is something Andrew Ecclestone thought NZCCL should be aware of

2023-09-23 00:12:46

Don't think of it as setting the clock forward tonight.
Think of it as sacrificing a hour of your life on the night of the Spring equinox.

2023-09-21 06:45:35

With latest wastewater I am raising my covid underreporting estimate from 5 times to 6 times (which is from about 20% of cases to about 17% of cases), but honestly for a handle on locally low/medium/high/extremely high I would focus on catchment wastewater https://thoughtfulnz.quarto.pub/nzcovidreport/wastewatabeta.html

2023-09-20 01:18:01

Pharmac changes to covid antivirals out- if you submitted comment on the draft you likely got the same email I got
https://pharmac.govt.nz/news-and-resources/consultations-and-decisions/2023-09-20-decision-on-covid-19-antivirals-access-criteria

2023-09-19 23:25:46

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@npub1zg9…nh26 I felt it enough to consider defensive strategies (second floor of building built on pylons) but apprantently the people on the floor below didn't notice it.

2023-09-19 08:28:39

If keeping an eye on the developing Aurora situation sounds like a better idea than politics this evening, then be aware there is a developing Aurora situation http://auroraalert.otago.ac.nz/aurora/index.html

2023-09-13 03:26:36

While I haven't age standardised the last 12 months, the week ending August 27th had the most deaths since the week ending August 21st 2022, driven by the 80+ age range having the most deaths since the the week ending August 21st 2022
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/111/055/224/576/305/269/original/fcf40b1ea3a738a8.png
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/111/055/229/433/332/846/original/0d011355ec1d69f4.png

2023-09-10 06:33:08

Cellphone picture from about 40 cm away
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/111/038/969/912/976/125/original/d7b5e14b11df263a.jpeg

2023-09-04 04:48:26

RAT reporting down a little, but stabilising. Covid Cases in ICU waaaaay up, and likely to be to do with the tail end of the exit wave dropping protections in care.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/111/004/589/483/110/109/original/1bbb8173aa8d0204.png

2023-09-03 08:21:00

The best photo, a #BloomScrolling one, I took when walking today. I actually set the camera to macro for this one.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/110/999/765/707/145/843/original/3700a26181ac716d.jpg

2023-08-30 01:38:39

If you happen to be in Ōtepoti and dependent on the city gas system for something (say, he said, your buildings heating) there has been an unplanned citywide outage since 10am

2023-08-28 00:36:41

Racists are feeling added social licence at the moment, and that needs steadfast opposing to avoid regression, but I just thought it worth reiterating their numbers have been dropping for decades, both with young people being more inclusive and people within their own age cohort becoming more inclusive. Tide of history and all that.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/110/963/966/377/357/842/original/f0fd0d7d963a3543.png

2023-08-25 05:16:33

I think this piece by Jamie Morton did a commendable job of combining together information from different (cited) academic articles in a easy for the general public to read piece
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-why-nzs-life-saving-elimination-strategy-didnt-come-with-bounce-back-in-deaths/GTZOMCHDHNB4XGRYPMHJYJO2YA/

2023-08-24 01:54:55

I think #NZcovid underreporting changes have (largely) stabilised. I read it as 3 groups: Working age (no isolation support); Retired living independent (get antivirals if test, no work pressure to not isolate); Retired in care (working age exposures up an no masks).
Guess masks and iso were doing something
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/110/941/624/657/992/051/original/abc5c753a5c2bbe4.png

2023-08-22 03:38:45

If your get regular blood tests, you might want to check for industrial action late this week/ early next week
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/110/930/708/456/441/750/original/8c26ef8299157a88.png

2023-08-20 02:03:24

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@npub1zg9…nh26 Yes, my thinking is that more of the 80-89 are living independently (anecdote, my mum is) so any "in care" effects are more muted because it is affectedly less of the demographic.

2023-08-20 01:24:44

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The data for Saturday (19th) is out
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/110/918/854/075/184/330/original/c1771111f42f5763.png

2023-08-19 05:36:36

Early days with the changes (and underreporting is still unsettled), but...
Removal of masking in old age care on Monday night.
A couple of days to develop symptoms after infection.
A huge number of 90+ year olds live in elder care facilities.
I think this is a trend to watch.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/110/914/184/935/360/357/original/5bc58cc7f7139f49.png

2023-08-18 01:18:38

poops.nz updated to week ending August 14th (so next weeks update will capture the first changes since dropping isolation and reporting rules).
Uptick, but given the associated (lack of anything new in the) variant info it looks a more like the inevitable opportunism of constantly circulating covid with behavioural changes, than any radical new threat at the moment.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/110/907/506/801/190/692/original/e388912b994af5c2.png

2023-08-16 04:35:39

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From that change, it is entirely reasonable to assume there are 6-8% more people walking around infectious than yesterday

2023-08-16 03:33:46

That is a sharp downturn in reported new case numbers with the first day after the end of isolation support.
I do not expect that drop to be matched by any similar sized drop in hospitalisations or waste water concentrations.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/110/896/715/927/390/154/original/ca8604311b4b6c2c.png

2023-08-15 05:39:18

With the ending of isolation support I am expecting new case reporting to fall to near (still have free tests) Australian levels (which is still substantially better than UK etc). Regional information is in wastewater, but the info for "by age" groups may be too low to publish.
https://mastodon.nz/system/media_attachments/files/110/891/545/594/920/311/original/0e4ddbc330c9b18a.jpeg

2023-08-14 06:28:50

With todays announcement, while there is still going to be free tests, I am going to be watching intently for evidence the lack of isolation support changes the reporting of tests results, and will be pivoting more to wastewater results if (and to be honest when) it does.
Unions should be ready to support health and safety claims of being forced to work with infectious people.