You could call me a human early warning system. I curate and share data from the instruments we use to track our rapidly changing physical environments so you can plan ahead and be safe. 🇿🇦 Joined Nostr December 17, 2022
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npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq Profile Code
nprofile1qqs26uk5338rdp89yn5dvjkant5q8c4sssswezvhz05lkna6sty99egpz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0ds2urzej
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npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq Show more details
Published at
2024-05-06T15:24:39+02:00 Event JSON
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Last Notes npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Now that the Actuaries have woken up to the reality bearing down on us like a freight train, will the rest of us too? The consequences of going to a permanent +1.5°C of warming by 2030 and then +2°C by 2050 are going to push many countries to the brink of collapse. https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insights/futureset/futureset-insights/systemic-risk-scenarios/extreme-weather-leading-to-food-and-water-shortage #ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis https://image.nostr.build/42782a5519b39dde95df97b0d2f60d478fcb5c5fee12e60ee8e5b3b711fcea24.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Berkely Earth: “The global mean temperature in September 2023 was 1.82 ± 0.09 °C (3.28 ± 0.17 °F) above the 1850 to 1900 average, a new record for the highest temperature excess of any month.” 2023 months above +1.5°C: March +1.52°C July +1.52°C August +1.68°C September +1.82°C https://berkeleyearth.org/september-2023-temperature-update/ #ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis https://image.nostr.build/7cd701a0974d2cce29d4f374295904f29fd3f006286c1d3f2acf4afae6af7931.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit We are stepping into a brand new world. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): “[September] as a whole was around 1.75°C warmer than an estimate of the September average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period.” “For January to September, the global mean temperature for 2023 is 1.40°C higher than the 1850-1900.” https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-september-2023 #ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Our legacy in one graphic. “Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries” (13 Sep 2023) Katherine Richardson et al https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adh2458 #PlanetaryBoundries https://image.nostr.build/3cc4313720a3129d9e8f91b58360d24a71fec5e96a9f9774a13a58a48b79ec6a.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit https://berkeleyearth.org/whats-new/ npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Data just released by the team at Berkley Earth for August shows that the global mean temperature for the months of June to August above the 1850 to 1900 average looked like this: June +1.47ºC July +1.54ºC August +1.68ºC Source: berkeleyearth.org/whats-new/ #ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis #GlobalHeating 2023 is now almost certain to be the warmest year in the instrumental period. https://image.nostr.build/25de994b4887b2b88b149962c1c9fc6aadd3b22731948712c2294110ebf0d08f.jpg https://image.nostr.build/e689c989563148255f74e05b4ea158e82022d088dea4931fe9a9c85b0655f516.jpg https://image.nostr.build/b1e66b20e9e5ea32a6bc14a297dfc273f6552ff689c6d8d2d23e15f5e786b887.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit No surprise at all, the June-July-August season was warmest on record globally by a large margin. Again as said before preparation for the summer of 2024 needs to start *now* as it is projected to be even hotter than 2023. #ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis https://climate.copernicus.eu/summer-2023-hottest-record npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit The heat is not done in Europe. September records set to tumble. #ClimateCrisis #Heatwave #HeatDome https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/heat-dome-heatwave-forecast-western-europe-september-2023-autumn-season-mk/ npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Wet Bulb Temperature risks 2023-2050: “Even heat-adapted people cannot carry out normal outdoor activities past a wet-bulb temperature of 32°C (90°F), equivalent to a heat index of 55;°C (131°F). A reading of 35°C (95°F) – equivalent to a heat index of 71°C (160°F) – is considered the theoretical human survivability limit for up to six hours of exposure.” Pictured: locations on earth that are at increased risk of reaching these thresholds for a number of days annually in next 27 years Quote source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature Graphic source: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_FullVolume.pdf #ClimateLiteracy #WetBulbTemperatures #ClimateCrisis https://cdn.nostr.build/i/f2d1557eacc46a3496f3c05182a6c168f6137a6cc064d1157a596f939e9f56db.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit As peer-reviewed science, is the most reliable source of scientific knowledge we have. Can ask that you point me to any reputable peer reviewed studies or publications that back up these statements? npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit #ClimateLiteracy Take a look at these two images. The first is from NASA and when sharing it they state “July 2023 was the hottest month globally since modern recordkeeping began in 1880, measuring at 1.18°C (2.12°F) above NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s 1951-1980 baseline average.“ we The second image is from ECMWF and in its release they state “The month (July) is estimated to have been around 1.5°C warmer than the average for 1850-1900.” Who’s right is it +1.18°C of warming or +1.5°C We They are both right. The difference is NASA is using 1950-1980 as the baseline and ECMWF is using 1850-1900 as their baseline. In the work we do (see my cover image) we use the ECMWF baseline of 1850-1900. Using that baseline, 2023 so far, has warmed +1.28°C We are expected to cross the +1.5°C of warming by about 2030 and +2°C by 2050, the impacts of which are now coming clearer into view. https://cdn.nostr.build/i/bcb44bc5941730dbf4d2a05366b9b9c014106cf9f21b191334027311cdd45356.jpg https://cdn.nostr.build/i/deef50e70ce8a62bba808972c59681d4fe333e9155fdd4c41a9e8eff85db2458.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Current warming above the preindustrial average: +1.28°C June 2023: +1.4°C July 2023: +1.54°C We are on track to reach +1.5°C of warming by about 2030 and +2°C by about 2050. What will the heat domes look like then? #Heatwave #HeatDome #ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis https://www.threads.net/@weatherprofjeff/post/CwUAikqhyf5/ npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit US Heat Index forecast for Wednesday Aug 23, 2023 Risks explained: 27-32°C (80-90°F) Caution: fatigue is possible with prolonged exposure and activity. Continuing activity could result in heat cramps. 32-41°C (90-105°F) Extreme caution: heat cramps and heat exhaustion are possible. Continuing activity could result in heat stroke. 41-54°C (105-130°F) Danger: heat cramps and heat exhaustion are likely; heat stroke is probable with continued activity. Over 54°C (Over 130°F) Extreme danger: heat stroke is imminent. Forecast source: https://data.thespectrum.com/heat-index-forecast/day-1/ Heat Index explained: https://www.calculator.net/heat-index-calculator.html Stay safe. #Heatwave #ClimateCrisis https://cdn.nostr.build/i/59b0dccdf1f9953c11369d0027662117905d255e0a66df0d674f1c9f51320889.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit This is a fire currently burning out of control in Alexandroupolis, Greece. They are currently evacuating everyone in its path, including the hospital. https://greekreporter.com/2023/08/22/alexandroupolis-hospital-evacuated-wildfires-greece/ As mentioned a few days ago, https://mastodon.green/@peterdutoit/110920113513702018 climate refugees will not necessarily be from far away places but from local communities, sometimes from the next town or village. The displacement and movement of people is set to increase dramatically with each 0.1°C of warming. We are currently heating at about 1.22 W/m2. http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2023/UhOh.14August2023.pdf The month of June was the hottest ever recorded - above +1.4°C above the preindustrial average https://www.threads.net/@hausfath/post/CwPBjN7rkX_/ So was July at 1.54°C https://berkeleyearth.org/july-2023-temperature-update/ and August is set to break its record too. https://www.threads.net/@hausfath/post/CwNsVAixJ8w/ If we cannot find a way to slam the brakes on our current emission trajectory there is a lot of disruption, pain and misery in our collective futures. #ClimateCrisis #ClimateRefugees https://cdn.nostr.build/i/7ca15fe95e410c843b20e74e79dd453095f2f8932d6ff98b87fd156e6cbebd95.png https://cdn.nostr.build/i/7ca15fe95e410c843b20e74e79dd453095f2f8932d6ff98b87fd156e6cbebd95.png npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit ⚠️ Early Warning Extreme precipitation event forecast for US west coast Aug 18-21. Flash flooding very likely. Data source https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/efi2web_tp?area=North%20America&base_time=202308180000&day=3&quantile=99 https://void.cat/d/XoxEjXtBBUqWvdr7Ly7o1u.webp npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit #EarlyWarning In the next 27 years, on our current trajectory, everyone and everything alive on earth will first experience a world at an average global temperature of 15.3°C (+1.5°C above preindustrial average of 13.8°C) and then a world at 15.8°C (+2°C above preindustrial) Both these states will unlock climate chaos only seen in movies. Forget about 2100. The clear and present danger is NOW for billions of people, animals and plants. What we do TODAY about turning off the emissions tap that is pouring GHG’s into the atmosphere is going to determine if we can buy sufficient time to adapt or not. #ClimateCrisis https://cdn.nostr.build/i/d525fd8371acc5ab62e70348a8be028f53b032872eebab3f77116de99738c3cd.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Pay attention. Heatwaves in winter are absolutely not normal. Instrument readings: CO2 atmospheric concentration 423.68 ppm CH4 atmospheric concentration 1920.74 ppb 15.08°C average global temperature (+1.28°C above preindustrial average of 13.8°C) +21°C Ocean temperature (60S-60N) Pictured 2m temperature anomaly across South America Aug 3 to Aug 6, 2023. https://cdn.nostr.build/i/58d70df688fbd95469cdf24fa39443a564b139f5ddc8f2414f2e840a79441f86.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Important comment from Susanna Ditlevsen co-author of the now famous study on the AMOC collapse possibility. Her comments (pictured) (Source: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7090635497059803136) https://void.cat/d/Ds6zPwaiHQZX8qM4pGi23d.webp npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Very sobering from Prof. Bob Watson as the impacts mount at +1.28°C of warming. Quote source: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/25/frightens-climate-crisis-do-not-know-how-bad-wildfires-greece #ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy https://cdn.nostr.build/i/9fd89d8b1b471e635d2a28305a765619971ae9bd771c4d8e3198a9e8a60797f4.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit ⚠️ Early Warning “The ongoing scorching heatwave across Europe and Turkey’s S and SE parts will finish with a deep upper wave emerging from the west, producing a major severe weather event across the Alpine region, northern Mediterranean, and central Balkan countries.” #Europe #Heatwave #Storms https://www.severe-weather.eu/weather-forecast/severe-weather-forecast-outlook-europe-july-24th-and-25th-2023-mk/ npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Tourism on a heating planet. The economic impact of where we are headed is coming into focus and this at 1.28°C of warming. Heatwaves, fires & drought do not go hand in hand with having a relaxing summer holiday. #ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves #WildFires https://mapstodon.space/@zoom_earth/110758913353419053 npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit The truth is we are completely and utterly unprepared for a world at +1.5°C We can hardly cope with the current +1.28°C https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/20/climate/how-extreme-heat-affects-workers-and-the-economy.html npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit As heat domes sit over Asia, Europe and the US, this is a critical piece of #ClimateLiteracy regarding #Heatwaves “Overnight minimum temperatures are expected to reach new highs. This is concerning because repeated high night-time temperatures are particularly dangerous for human health because the body is unable to recover from hot days, leading to increased cases of heart attacks and death. Whilst most of the attention focuses on daytime maximum temperatures, it is the overnight temperatures which have the biggest health risks, especially for vulnerable populations. “We need the world to broaden its attention beyond the maximum temperature alone. In many locations where the maximum is reaching into the high 40°Cs and higher, the temperature may still be near 40°C at midnight. In these circumstances, the minimum temperature is more important for health and failing critical infrastructure during extreme heatwaves.”—John Nairn WMO extreme heat advisor. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/heatwaves-show-importance-of-health-early-warnings-and-action-plans npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit #Japan experiencing some extreme precipitation in the southeast. Latest reporting with video visuals here https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/one-killed-heavy-rain-triggers-landslides-japan-2023-07-09/ ⚠️ JMA issues warning for continued heavy downpours overnight and tomorrow for the same area. http://nostr.build/i/0df068e494d22dfdaef9fdeb8822b968a94402245f7633a1abf6f1776a583120.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit World Meteorological Organization hosts special news briefing to address records in land and ocean temperatures. Stay informed as the climate crisis continues to evolve. Recording of live press briefing here: https://media.un.org/en/asset/k11/k11r4ljniw Media release here: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/preliminary-data-shows-hottest-few-days-record-sea-surface-temperatures-unprecedented #ClimateCrisis #ElNino #OceanHeating npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit There is absolutely no way to “negotiate” with the physics of our dumping 39 Gt CO2 into the atmosphere per year. This behaviour results in accelerating climate change as can be witnessed by the rise in the global average temperature to +1.27°C above pre industrial averages. If we continue to treat earths atmosphere as a CO2 sewer we will all but ensure catastrophic climate change within the next 70 years. We understand the physics. As a result we also understand what we need to do to avert catastrophe. Here it is: We need to go from emitting 39 Gt CO2 per year to 19 Gt CO2 by 2030. This means we need to look at EVERY emission source and avoid it or shift to non-carbon emitting energy sources. If your business burns fossil fuels to generate revenue it would be prudent for the long term survival of your business to decouple revenue generation from the need to burn fossil fuels as a matter of urgency. If you don’t do this voluntarily be assured that you will be forced to do so in the near future. Voluntary transition is WAY less painful than forced transition as Air France-KLM just discovered. Court ruling: “𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘧𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘣𝘺 𝘢𝘪𝘳𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘴𝘶𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘴𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘶𝘴 𝘥𝘢𝘮𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘢𝘴 𝘢 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘶𝘭𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘥 𝘮𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘶𝘳𝘦𝘴 𝘸𝘢𝘴 𝘯𝘰 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘢𝘵 𝘢 𝘥𝘪𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘶𝘵𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦.” https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/netherlands-can-cap-schiphol-flights-dutch-appeal-court-rules-2023-07-07/ Which will it be? #ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis #Leadership npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit We are at +1.27°C of warming. And CO2 atmospheric concentrations at at 424.68 ppm (June) The resulting extreme weather events are now so common they hardly make the news anymore. This is #Zaragoza, #Spain, on Thursday July 6th after an extreme precipitation event caused a flash flood trapping people in their cars as roads turned into raging rivers. We are in a climate emergency. (Source: https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1788601/car-drivers-cling-to-roofs-flash-flood-spain) #ClimateCrisis https://nostr.build/av/38ae8f994532e38e4ee5ca955d2af930873e41978bf1f1e47ac00071f0fec3b7.mov npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit About 13 https://nostr.build/i/305aae5be6ec39a8ed9f8e1eacd5c3320712a3e882262517804ca12275ea4239.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit What https://nostr.build/i/6674da6ec3d58ec9f13137e213f2f4312b32a31142047fcaf6e884e86f4cd3b0.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Image Context. 2016 & 2020 were tied the hottest years on record. On Aug 14, 2016 a daily global average 2m air temperature record was set at 16.92°C On July 11, 2020 the highest average was 16.82°C On Mon July 3, 2023 we broke the 2016 record with a new high of 17.01°C Yesterday, Tuesday July 4, 2023👇🏻 🧪 https://nostr.build/i/e9597623e3c0b195b67da7f298369354c2c14e1a104ace7c5e3cbe03035cd7a2.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit So there will be no Threads for the EU for the “foreseeable future.” #Meta #Threads Source: https://m.independent.ie/business/technology/no-instagram-threads-app-in-the-eu-irish-dpc-says-metas-new-twitter-rival-wont-be-launched-here/a1927220337.html https://nostr.build/i/7a48140fd40ea500f1f2cad15ac4d2c81cdd4473ca2ecbf96c000da504a2fded.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Yesterday we broke a record. We recorded an average global temperature of +17.01ºC for the first time since instrumental records began. With another month or so of heating to go before it turns down again 2023 may become the warmest year on record, beating out 2016. https://void.cat/d/M7zyBX1D8osk8bMTurJMs2.webp npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit The impacts of the #climatecrisis are being felt in #China there is no doubt about that: "China will face multiple natural disasters in July, including floods, severe convection weather, typhoons and high temperatures, authorities warned." https://english.news.cn/20230703/3dca8e89626d4c0e82556224ad37bee4/c.html npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit So the same as Twitter basically npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit So basically like Twitter https://nostr.build/i/cee4b23b4673a41cfa77db72c3cfe80822248e211ec192bbe938e9c1e4a2f3c5.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit So basically the same as Twitter https://nostr.build/i/cee4b23b4673a41cfa77db72c3cfe80822248e211ec192bbe938e9c1e4a2f3c5.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit With your re acidification — and here is where we stand on that front: “Prior to the Industrial Revolution, average ocean pH was about 8.2. Today, average ocean pH is about 8.1. This might not seem like much of a difference, but the relationship between pH and acidity is not direct. Each decrease of one pH unit is a ten-fold increase in acidity. This means that the acidity of the ocean today, on average, is about 25% greater than it was during preindustrial times.” (https://www.epa.gov/ocean-acidification/understanding-science-ocean-and-coastal-acidification#:~:text=Solutions%20with%20low%20pH%20are,ocean%20pH%20is%20about%208.1.) npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit The heating ocean and melting ice, a hallmark of the evolving climate crisis, are causing seas to rise. (Global average sea level has risen 21–24 centimeters since 1880. In 2021, global sea level set a new record high—97 mm (3.8 inches) above 1993 levels.) There are many places where retreat is the becoming the only option, one of these places is Khun Samut Chin, just outside of Bangkok. Here 1.1km to 2km of land has already been swallowed by the sea. More here: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/01/just-four-pupils-left-how-the-sea-rose-up-on-a-thai-village #ClimateCrisis #SeaLevelRise #Thailand https://nostr.build/i/23229c898154c72275f3d930043290b346545937d9fe8f13c6c96fcf3886f105.jpg https://nostr.build/i/0707a421842b18f83fd77d3649f34ea71f4d3452fb70dc94e6beadcaa5be2a09.webp npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit How do we know that the #ElNino phase has arrived? We use our instruments: “Satellite- and ocean-based measurements of sea surface temperature are one way to detect the arrival of El Niño. Its signature also shows up in satellite measurements of sea surface height, which rises as ocean temperatures warm up. That’s because warmer water expands to fill more volume, while cooler water contracts. The [image] depicts sea surface height anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean as observed from June 1–10, 2023. Shades of blue indicate sea levels that were lower than average; normal sea level conditions appear white; and reds indicate areas where the ocean stood higher than normal.” https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/151481/el-nino-returns npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit The heat has already “lasted 20 days” https://news.yahoo.com/mexico-power-grid-alert-weeks-170347946.html #Mexico #Heatwave npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit The Texas heatwave as observed by NASA satellites. CO2 424 ppm +1.27°C above preindustrial Source: https://eyes.nasa.gov/apps/earth/#/vitalsign?vitalsign=air_temperature&altid=0&animating=f&start=&end=#heatwave #ClimateCrisis #Heatwave #Texas https://nostr.build/i/1dc0823c12d6f968898c42a3172505ed665d2e4dfdc157268a7d95bf93892ff9.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit More than 40 million people in the US are currently under a heat alert and on some places the infrastructure is beginning to fail. #Texas #Heatwave https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/24/texas-heatwave-high-temperatures-power npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit You should check out this guys feed they are very much on the ground https://infosec.exchange/@kevinrothrock npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit The only place I get to see the tech talk is when I check the BlueSky team feed 😅 otherwise I live in the science feed where there is everything but tech talk https://nostr.build/i/615452c575cc3fc9b0281ffb748c9083769c8ec9f2d934f4a626bc2bef851c42.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Hey that looks like a tracker he is wearing? npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit China as a whole is under *severe* heat strain! 41.8 Tanghekouzhen 41.2 Huairou 41.1 Zhaitang 40.6 Miyun 34.4 Foye Peak 41.8 Dagang 41.5 Tianjin 41.1 Sigi 40.9 Wu Qing 41.6 Beichen 41.4 Langfang 40.8 Gu'an 40.2 Zunhua 41.3 Wudi 40.8 Yang Xin 39.2 Jimo 41.7 Shandong 41.4 Xianghe 40.4 Tamada npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit You will notice in the text it makes reference to “Japan” this is a browser translation error. Here is the original text from the website: 市气象台2023年6月23日07时00分升级发布高温红色预警信号:预计,6月23日至25日本市高温天气仍将持续,大部分地区最高气温可达37~40℃,请注意防范。(预警信息来源:国家预警信息发布中心 npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Today the Beijing Meteorological Bureau upgraded the city to a level red warning, the highest heatwave warning, as temperatures soared to just above 41°C Beijing is home to 22 million people, who were urged to take emergency measures to prevent heatstroke. Stop outdoor work in the open air. Take protective measures for the elderly, the weak, the sick and the young and pay special attention to fire prevention. Source: https://weather.cma.cn/web/alarm/11000041600000_20230623070925.html #ClimateCrisis #Heatwave #Beijing https://nostr.build/i/1d399cfd5a3472a2ad8993a06ccfc219c9800659e8bef3d2c28a3446c0c46806.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit ⚠️ Early Warning — Dangerous Wet Bulb Temperatures forecast for parts of Texas on Friday. Reminder: The actual max wet-bulb temp is lower than 35°C — about 31°C wet-bulb or 87°F at 100% humidity — even for young, healthy individuals. For older populations, who are more vulnerable to heat, it’s likely even lower. (See https://journals.physiology.org/doi/full/10.1152/japplphysiol.00738.2021) Wet-bulb advisory: https://digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/?zoom=4&lat=37&lon=-96.5&layers=F000BTTTFTT&region=0&element=8&mxmz=false&barbs=false&subl=TFFFFF&units=english&wunits=nautical&coords=latlon&tunits=localt #WetBulbTemperature #Texas #Heatwave #ClimateCrisis https://nostr.build/i/a3a8a89c067d523ee12e655f1e25cdfbd30622d094da96eacdda5dce3dd0de61.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit South Africa has warmed +1.6ºC since 1881 and we are are on course to reach +4.4ºC of heating by 2100. #ClimateLiteracy #ShowYourStripes #SouthAfrica https://us-southeast-1.linodeobjects.com/dufflepud/uploads/a0fd1b51-d628-485e-b451-492727c78c9d.png npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Mexico is going through some things. #Heatwave #note1w90…9x6z npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Of course, it is at the top end compared to the other models but still, we keep skating closer and closer to chaos. https://nostr.build/i/9575523d81c21489a25142cfa5b00cbbef01cc5ee6e616195fda275fb9a2fc74.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit ⚠️ Early Warning Today BoM (Australia) released their June El Niño outlook. Take look at their Nino 3.4 probabilities for Sept-Oct-Nov. Compare this to the top 8 El Niño’s since 1950 - we have never exceeded +3.0°C for Nino 3.4 😳 If this transpires 🌡️ in 2024 are going to be 🔥 BoM: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Bureau-model&region=NINO34 NOAA: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/dashboard.html #ClimateCrisis #ElNino #EarlyWarnings https://nostr.build/i/4cf16aa2f7b4421a98a2eb542148089404d66d2c6342539565b1e23a5a3d93fe.jpg https://nostr.build/i/5a948cddb110205c5381cf2ab1c38f040d8eb16206c855e89c608e2c6842bd3b.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit https://nostr.build/i/75de9ea84e5d46f865d3711825d6b0f16636e955c23eb70b54ba26063fb4cee6.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit That is really interesting. This zooming into Croatia (2020 data) npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Did you know? (Read more in the just released “State of the Climate in Europe 2022” https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11659) #ClimateLiteracy #Europe https://nostr.build/i/2b6f1822a773f1386a7ed19901594c80e609ab87867697826b65f8499aa2f5de.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Image credit: Figure 3.2, Pg 38, Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit From two countries in the Heat-Humidity risk zone: Nepal struggles with blistering heatwave https://www.dw.com/en/nepal-struggles-with-blistering-heat-wave/a-65941491 Dozens die as northern India swelters under heatwave https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/17/dozens-die-as-northern-india-swelters-under-heatwave #ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves #India #Nepal https://nostr.build/i/2e3fee30b05422a5401b2b430a3884ecea352afc3040ad6e603878bcf81e57df.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit So much work has been done on the risk profiles of different places. For example check out the extensive reporting here https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Annex-I.pdf Of course, in some places the impacts are arriving faster but this gives a good framework if adaptation is a priority, which it should be of course. npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Sure. There is more detail on the interplay here https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask-nasa-climate/3143/steamy-relationships-how-atmospheric-water-vapor-amplifies-earths-greenhouse-effect/ npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit For every °C that Earth’s atmospheric temperature rises, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere can increase by about 7%. The more water vapor that air contains, the more energy it holds, fuelling intense storms, particularly over land resulting in more extreme weather events. Pics from Citrusdal in the Western Cape, South Africa showing severe storm damage resulting in millions of rands in infrastructure damage and crop loses. The only access road to the town has been washed away and essential supplies for the 5,000 residents is being airlifted. CO2 concentrations 424 ppm +1.27°C above preindustrial average In the near term (2021-2040) the people and animals most at risk of extreme weather events are those who exist: 1) Close to their upper thermal limits 2) Along coastlines 3) Near ice or seasonal rivers #ClimateLiteracy #EarlyWarnings #ExtremeWeather #Citrusdal #SouthAfrica https://nostr.build/i/33c60f8f21988f8b5f89f9bcfa7a6dfaeb139156664df7583af6e5ae16983437.jpg https://nostr.build/i/53c2282da8b2147dcdfc49699d2d77c5f0ca1ec8e5bdf890441f51724585f1b6.jpg https://nostr.build/i/09853af197c95bb9a5f431e22fbaf2fdae5e649e1663ea9aeb5fd98cf575ef58.jpg https://nostr.build/i/b5b12aaa2f1b3184db644dc0c41186bbd1b17c1af6015fcd7a693f7f28974924.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit 35 million people find themselves under a heat/red flag advisory in the US on Friday. “Record-breaking heat index temperatures could reach 115 F (46 C) in cities such as Dallas, Houston and Austin, the Texas state capital, where officials have opened cooling centers in libraries and park buildings and urged people to drink plenty of water and stay out of the sun.” Reporting: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/stifling-heat-wave-grip-us-south-over-holiday-weekend-2023-06-15/ Weather.gov advisory: https://www.weather.gov CO2 concentrations 424 ppm 🌡️ +1.27°C above preindustrial #Heatwave https://nostr.build/i/3867b8059e6ad75c66c088b08e9c25cd32c44174f45c3348ca92f9696b551828.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit This is wild npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit NOAA’s May 2023 Global Climate Report has been released. The oceans registered their hottest May in 174 years CO2 = 424.34 ppm 🌡️ = +1.27°C above pre-industrial Data: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202305 #ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis #OceanHeat https://nostr.build/i/ab179daf50ac5677c1439abb2feff16b85efdebb8fb4ebb477cbee98d20def1d.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit A timeline cleanse. This majestic crowned eagle, Africa’s most powerful, was released just a short distance from where are after a dramatic rescue a few days ago. These eagles are near threatened as a result of habitat loss, mainly forests. Hamba kahle special friend. https://nostr.build/i/e541b7d553984c6adf1fba40a6a434209b1a9aed70ea08dad9fcdad87417209a.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Here was the impact from the 2015/16 event in our region. https://gfcs.wmo.int/sites/default/files/Sithole_El%20Nino%20Impacts%20in%20Southern%20Africa.pdf The City of Cape Town came extremely close to its water Day Zero https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cape_Town_water_crisis npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Early Warning We are in brand new territory: “When you have an El Niño occurring on top of the long-term warming trend, it’s like a double whammy.”—Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist at The Nature Conservancy. Any business that does not, as a matter of urgency, become climate literate, is going to experience considerable pain. “Dartmouth scientists estimated that the 1997-1998 El Niño led to $5.7 trillion in lost gross domestic product the following five years. Their modeling estimates that by the end of this century, El Niños will have blocked some $84 trillion in GDP.” Climate disruption is real and is coming at us at break neck speed. How ready are you? #futureofwork #disruption #climateliteracy https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-el-nino-climate-change-extreme-weather/ npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit This is great piece by Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf on 🐦) on the current ocean heat phenomenon https://www.wfla.com/weather/climate-classroom/spike-in-ocean-heat-stuns-scientists-have-we-breached-a-climate-tipping-point/ #ClimateLiteracy #OceanHeat #ElNino npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit 🌡️ UK Heat-Health Alert As of today Tuesday 13 June, the Heat-Health Alerts issued by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the Met Office have been extended until 9am on Monday 19 June. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/heat-health-alerts-issued-by-ukhsa-and-the-met-office #ClimateCrisis #HeatAlert #Heatwave npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit 🌀#Biparjoy is gearing up to be a major incident and evacuations underway as the storm approaches. Detailed reporting here: https://www.dawn.com/news/1759332 npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit #Biparjoy npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Early warnings: The #India Meteorological Department issues storm and wind track for tropical cyclone #Biparjpy with landfall expected near Jakhau Port, Gujarat around noon on Thursday June 15 https://nostr.build/i/85786d55a0e7549dc9198000593aa9decdf17bccad22420288737c03f794dd61.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Just a correction in the text above this should read: “This causes the warm surface waters that are usually found in the EASTERN Pacific along the coasts of Ecuador/Peru/Chile to spread WESTWARD along the equator¹³⁵. As a result, the ocean heat that is normally stored in the eastern Pacific is released to the atmosphere in the central and western Pacific²⁴. This affects the global weather patterns and climate” The east/west flow was written incorrectly npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Hey isn’t this at Rinkai Park? npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit This is correct. We have just come out of a longer than normal cooler La Niña period. We are now moving into the warmer El Niño phase. The last El Niño event we had was in 2015/16 which was described as a “super El Niño” as a result of the heat it created. Btw here is how Sea Surface Temperatures are measured https://argo.ucsd.edu The Argo floats are currently collecting about 12,000 data profiles each month (400 a day). npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Why the concern with current sea surface temperatures? ”Just the top few metres of our oceans store as much energy as the entirety of our atmosphere. I'm very concerned for later this year into 2024.”—Dr Thomas Smith (https://twitter.com/DrTELS/status/1650562388377174020) npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Climate Literacy: During an El Niño event, the trade winds that normally blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific weaken or even reverse direction³⁵. This causes the warm surface waters that are usually found in the western Pacific along the coasts of Ecuador/Peru/Chile to spread eastward along the equator¹³⁵. As a result, the ocean heat that is normally stored in the western Pacific is released to the atmosphere in the central and eastern Pacific²⁴. This affects the global weather patterns and climate¹²³⁵. Sources: (1) El Niño: Pacific Wind and Current Changes Bring Warm, Wild Weather. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/ElNino. (2) What are El Niño and La Niña, and how do they change the weather?. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64192508. (3) El Niño - National Geographic Society. https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/el-nino/. (4) El Niño and Extreme Ocean Heat Are About to Clash for the 2023 .... https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/el-nino-and-extreme-ocean-heat-are-about-to-clash-for-the-2023-hurricane-season/. (5) El Niño and La Niña: Frequently asked questions. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/el-ni%C3%B1o-and-la-ni%C3%B1a-frequently-asked-questions. https://nostr.build/i/a3af5d222cf6216d2ce84cd3b82e4dee1a2c372f961cd9f4a92dfbed35132639.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Data sources: 1) Previous 1.5° anomaly breaches: https://nitter.moomoo.me/hausfath/status/1667206122594525184#m 2) OP Graphic: https://nitter.moomoo.me/EliotJacobson/status/1667165187894558721#m npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit #ClimateLiteracy: The 1.5° limit applies to the average temperature over a year, and passing it would mean that the average will have been sustained for several years. That said, we have crossed the 1.5°C anomaly on hundreds of individual days, after which it has fallen back below 1.5° Most of these days occurred in 2016 & 2020. Now as the heat begins to load up as a result of the maturing El Niño we will see many individual days again cross 1.5° For example look at this. In 2023 we breached 1.5° on March 6-11 and again yesterday (June 9th) https://nostr.build/i/d7c43f760059d1c6f1f08af053c66757400bad01bba349f4db7203b569967fca.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Early Warning NOAA has announced the start of the 2023/24 #ElNino https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml #ClimateLiteracy https://nostr.build/i/699b1ca455a8431813b48f5c5e876d3dae25f2e380fedafbbfb2cee9908d9a5b.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit I must tell you that I actually made a decision not to travel to events to speak anymore 😅 - I have lost some gigs as a result but the 20/21 experience have made events more open to hybrid scenarios. On screen with a camera facing the audience and a person acting as a connector in the venue has been working for me. It’s still surreal to be able to be on screen at two separate events in two different countries on the same day considering that was impossible before! npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Precipitation records tumble in #Portugal Extreme precipitation events go hand-in-hand with our heating trajectory. The amount of water vapour in the atmosphere increases by about 7% for each 1° of warming. Current status: +1.27°C above pre-industrial https://nostr.build/i/099c4e1b0356abdea5c3b9f7c48e85859532ed0196d6082b79e4e60588bab6ea.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Bureau of Meteorology (BoM, Austraila) becomes the first to issue an El Nino ALERT. Communication here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/ #ElNino #ClimateLiteracy npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Excessive heat events are now becoming so common that it’s hard to keep up. Some hardly get any coverage. Here is an Excessive Heat Warning in place for northwest #PuertoRico today. Heat range expected 42.2° to 47.7°C accompanied by high humidity (a wet bulb temperature event) May 2023: CO2 424 ppm Avg Global Temp: +1.27°C (above preindustrial) Data source: https://www.weather.gov/sju/ #ClimateCrisis #Heatwave https://nostr.build/i/b389d99f8853b876bb1d9afcf659bb2dfc5ae615d48992646784adcd4e789e97.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit You will find this interview interesting as it provides some insight into their AI approach and philosophy. https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2020/08/apple-explains-how-it-uses-machine-learning-across-ios-and-soon-macos/ npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Case in point. If this is not somehow solved, this here will remain a niche network. If you compare the new arrivals feed here to BlueSky for example it literally is like night and day. https://nostr.build/i/3968763ad42546c445d9d5aef8dfab977b32e5930349c0b24957eb983bc15ffc.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit How is your country doing when it comes to matching its current emission reduction policies to its 2030 pledges? Here is our situation in #SouthAfrica Check your country here: https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65754296 #ClimateCrisis #ClimateLiteracy #Emissions https://nostr.build/i/b353874866b7bf51a17bedaa0e03f10deaa27c1133e73366da1d1996a5ba0f2f.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Prediction: The way of life in May places is going to be *severely* disrupted as we continue our heating trajectory. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/06/02/heat-school-closings-northeast-climate/ #ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Human migration on a heating planet. We know from the latest science that 100’s of millions of people will find themselves in physical environments where heat and humidity will be an existential threat as we continue to heat. There is no question that this will no doubt motivate migration. The sooner we understand the dynamics of this the better. So it’s really import that research like this is seeing the light of day. https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000214 #ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves #Migration npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Temperature records tumbled in #Canada yesterday https://nitter.moomoo.me/Pat_wx/status/1664036214003859459#m npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit #Japan has just experienced it’s warmest spring (MAM) since records began in 1898. Temps were 1.59°C higher than average this year. Source: Japan Meteorological Agency npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit We help companies adopt location independence as a resilience strategy in some of our work. One of the things we run up against repeatedly is the lack of digital literacy and fluency in senior managment, which, as a result wants to mentor and work in-person mostly. (See pic. Data source here http://www.wfhresearch.com/) The ability to “speak digital” and “work out loud” in digital environments is a non-negotiable skill if you are going to work from anywhere. The big RTO (return to office) push is mostly coming from this age group. https://nostr.build/i/e5494226f341dfbfd1996d7c1cb59ed611757aa99c5517f558c824f3a3bf6ee0.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit This transition is actually fascinating to watch especially in the US npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit As #ClimateChaos becomes a reality in many places we need robust #EarlyWarningSystems in place to help people stay safe. You HAVE to make an effort to understand what is projected for the area you are in and begin a conversation about what actions to take as a result. Here is the Four-Pillar Framework the WMO is working on and serves as an excellent template for your community and family. Source: https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/overview-of-early-warnings-all-executive-action-plan-2023%E2%80%932027 #ClimateLiteracy #Adaptation https://nostr.build/i/339169b76a3b847b0590a2777f61c6e65de52a72dd0a527390f63ed6c5a58f3e.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Heat records are tumbling again in parts of China! “Today, 18 stations broke the highest record and 2 stations tied the record, mainly in Yunnan. 178 stations breaking the record in May, and 15 stations equaling the record. Among them, 61 stations in Guangdong, which is 71% of the stations in the province”—Xin Xin #China #Heatwave Source: https://weibo.com/1920136013/N317UkcGL npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Cryosphere Early Warning - Reference glaciers (for which we have long-term observations) experienced an average thickness change of over −1.3 metres between October 2021 and October 2022. This loss is much larger than the average of the last decade. The cumulative thickness loss since 1970 amounts to almost 30 m. - The European Alps smashed records for glacier melt due to a combination of little winter snow. In Switzerland, 6% of the glacier ice volume was lost between 2021 and 2022 – and one third between 2001 and 2022. - The Greenland Ice Sheet ended with a negative total mass balance for the 26th year in a row. - Sea ice in Antarctica dropped to 1.92 million km2 on February 25, 2022, the lowest level on record and almost 1 million km2 below the long-term (1991-2020) mean. - Arctic sea ice in September at the end of the summer melt tied for the 11th lowest monthly minimum ice extent in the satellite record. - Global mean sea level reaching a new record high for the satellite altimeter record (1993-2022). The rate of global mean sea level rise has doubled between the first decade of the satellite record. Source: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/rapid-changes-cryosphere-demand-urgent-coordinated-action npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit This story illustrates our general inability to recognise #climaterisk and adapt: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65723447 Sherpas: "[Base Camp] has been there for the past 70 years, why should they move it now? And even if they wanted to, where is the study on a viable alternative?" Reality: “Mountaineers and officials say streams have now begun to flow right from the middle of the base camp and crevasses are widening dangerously and very quickly.” npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit Early Warnings In this peer-reviewed paper scientists looked at 12 locations around the Mediterranean and Middle East to determine when these locations would cross the regular occurrences of 45° and then 50°C days given our current trajectory. They look at the situation at present, Mid-Century (27 years away) and Late Century (77 years away) They conclude: “As the hottest European temperatures already verge on 50 °C, the question arises whether extreme climatic conditions similar to neighbouring regions like Northern Africa are migrating into Europe. Our work provides some evidence that this may indeed be the case, at least in areas with the largest warming trends like Southern Spain. Although this northward climate migration is perhaps an unsurprising scientific inference, its associated unprecedented impacts are of great importance to affected European countries.” Some of these places will become uninhabitable as a result of the life-threatening heat. Most of this is unavoidable given the amount of CO2 ALREADY in the atmosphere (423 ppm as of April 2023 and rising) The speed at which this arrives can of course change and is absolutely determined by our choices TODAY. What will the impacts be in the place you live? Do you know? Paper here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-023-00377-4 #ClimateLiteracy #ClimateCrisis #Mitigation #Adaptation https://nostr.build/i/0998d33609587d17cd1c5eb63a669e2c2783254f8d1833f204dd1d054688eec9.webp npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit There was that element obviously but both these guys actually support DeSantis. Here is Musk in 2022 and Sacks has donated to the DeSantis campaign. I think that Sapce had a lot to do with this affiliation. https://nostr.build/i/e635737d19c10137760b19cbd7a71c26b11d917581178f69bc398b1404bd9692.jpg npub144edfrzwx6zw2f8g6e9dmxhgq03tpppqajyewylfld8m4qkg2tjslhurkq peterdutoit It’s good to see this topic being researched. Last year during the intense heat wave in #India they had this exact experience. Heat wave + dramatic increase in air conditioner use = major strain on grid = large area blackouts = vulnerability to heatstroke How Blackouts during Heat Waves Amplify Mortality and Morbidity Risk: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.2c09588 #ClimateCrisis #Heatwaves