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nprofile1qqs267vdvuhmv93reqn29r9k9pkehdkdsav4rxvv4m4nlaynv0ujh3spz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dsp886yw

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nostr.wine

Last Notes

2026-10-28 20:01:46 GMT

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OK I have intermediate agency ETF. I am ~ahead on that despite my Capital loss, assuming I don’t sell and keep getting these new interest rates?

2026-10-28 18:46:58 GMT

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So T Notes/Bills are inneficient market instruments! ? They shold be "worth" the NPV of future cash flows, right?

2026-10-28 13:11:11 GMT

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Isn’t that saying that T-note holders’ capital losses do not equal NPV of higher future interest payments (risk-adjusted for ~0 future capital gains/losses)?

2026-10-22 10:30:58 GMT

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do you mean actual bank deposit holders? Rewarded because they can buy cheaper USTs?

2026-07-16 16:01:05 GMT

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DB, I'd say fuggedaboutit. WID/PSZ don't even include DB. But DC (iras, 401ks etc), I think it's quite possible. Would have to poke more. I think they contain ~10% of HHs' total directly and indirectly owned assets...

2026-07-16 14:47:24 GMT

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Realizing that HH holdings of equities (and/via mutual funds) holdings inside (defined-contribution) pensions shd be added to HH equity/MF holdings... Sigh.
This probably a better measure of total corp (market value) equity outstanding? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1X5cR

2026-07-16 12:34:19 GMT

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Yeah I'm pretty onboard w "consumption spending is what causes investment spending," but not sure if that's pertinent here? Both types of spending cause production of valuable stuff. ?

2026-07-16 12:29:53 GMT

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Added ROW ownership of US equities for better total of the "firms" sector value. Makes v little diff in this ratio at least... https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1X54m

2026-07-16 12:24:25 GMT

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Or reverse it!
Since Reagan, each dollar of corp equity "value" delivering steadily less goods and services to Americans.
https://s3.eu-central-2.wasabisys.com/mastodonworld/media_attachments/files/116/929/631/746/787/622/original/0121db2fc4b64631.png

2026-07-16 12:18:59 GMT

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Also this a better spending measure? Consumption and investment spending.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1X53S
https://s3.eu-central-2.wasabisys.com/mastodonworld/media_attachments/files/116/929/614/467/540/249/original/022a81f381a25655.png

2026-07-16 03:01:11 GMT

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That ratio looked low to me... https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1X4Ad
https://s3.eu-central-2.wasabisys.com/mastodonworld/media_attachments/files/116/927/421/732/091/364/original/e3008f8186fe3881.png

2026-05-25 14:33:18 GMT

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A favorite in the multiple-"causes" conversation:
Both the snow buildup and the sneeze "cause" the avalanche.

2025-11-13 15:15:23 GMT

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Nice, thanks. Much to discuss there, but here just showing (in blue) labor compensation as % of comprehensive H-S income.
https://s3.eu-central-2.wasabisys.com/mastodonworld/media_attachments/files/115/543/041/376/778/954/original/f1f5834c6a00bbc1.png