TheyHodl
TheyHODL

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npub14thcl0gkg3m80wff05zmkcvqfsjys2as22j6m2zp53vrr0h2hscs724jva

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Last Notes

2025-10-10 19:30:57 GMT

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“One dip moooore!”
#nevent1q…kzl9

2025-10-08 09:04:58 GMT

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Everyone has forgotten what bitcoin is capable of.
Trad-fi think they have tamed it. They haven’t.
Bitcoiners think 4 year cycles are over. They’re not.
Everyone thinks 50%+ crashes are over. They’re not.
We’re going to $1-2m by May26.
We’re going to CRASH to 300k.
This is institutions first bull run. It’ll be exactly like 2017. EXACTLY the same.
https://blossom.primal.net/50225da9cf6230f5d06ac0a7c427d40420e048c1b66c0e3bf09624baf8a6372e.png

2025-09-14 20:16:23 GMT

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Rats in a cage experiment

2025-09-14 19:17:00 GMT

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As the world has drifted into deep left territory, the horizon on where it once stood looks far to the right.
Speak truth but seek peace.
Watch your flanks whatever your political view. And remember your enemies want you angry, they’ll use it to trap you.

2025-09-06 19:34:09 GMT

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Sounds like the original block size wars to me?

2025-09-06 07:07:07 GMT

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I often hear people call this boring step function the hardest trade. Even @nprofile…gw6j miss remember this.
That was never TINAs hardest trade, it was the boringest trade.
The hardest trade was always the sudden and dramatic repricing.
An old summary below 👇
#nevent1q…ln9x

2025-07-24 19:33:11 GMT

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The hardest trade.
The sudden and dramatic repricing scenario.
That’s how the idiot elites lose their seat at the table.

2025-06-17 20:23:53 GMT

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Once there is a law to do something, it’s much easier to add caveat and rules etc after.
This shouldn’t be celebrated. It’s a trap.

2025-06-17 13:03:57 GMT

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We’re about to see what happens when there’s no corn for sale.
The corn famine of 2025 will be a humanitarian crisis.

2025-06-16 21:25:51 GMT

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Agree. However, I bet some Bitcoin treasury companies are like Mr Toad thinking they know how to drive the automobile.

2025-06-16 15:37:41 GMT

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Bitcoin is about to go pop. 🍾

2025-06-16 15:34:49 GMT

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I once saw a pigeon get run over by a bus. Slowly.
Its tail got caught and the wheel slowly rolled over its body.
I’ll never forget how the head popped into the sky like a champagne cork.
Anyway. The price of Bitcoin is about to go the way of that pigeon’s head.

2025-06-16 08:19:32 GMT

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2025-06-14 07:34:14 GMT

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Next leg up loading.
Usually I could see bitcoin flush out longs first, but expect enough war shorts have over played their position.
https://blossom.primal.net/bc0694e54169ebaca5244c401b1a719450fbf05dd3fca0747b8ecebcc0816994.png

2025-06-14 07:23:37 GMT

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The suits have run out of road.
Bitcoin about to get back in charge.
Crash up 🫡

2025-06-13 18:54:57 GMT

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We need a white pill video.
Without it we are headed to the scene at the end of fight club with the addition of a cold card in his hand and a block clock in the corner unable to obtain a dollar value?

2025-06-13 18:23:55 GMT

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Can’t wait!

2025-06-12 21:10:13 GMT

The suits have been taming bitcoin for 7-12 months on and off.
I think a reckoning is coming.
One the suits aren’t prepared for.

2025-06-07 21:27:26 GMT

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Going to buy some wine from you this week. What’s your suggestion?

2025-06-07 21:20:37 GMT

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Agree, but it won’t be slow and steady.
If prepare for the RIP.
Next week.

2025-06-07 21:16:16 GMT

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Cheers Ben.
Timeline on 10m is an unknown entity, the real end game.

2025-06-07 21:00:20 GMT

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Exactly.

2025-06-07 20:37:00 GMT

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Thanks Sir.
Sure, not everyone is a bitcoiner at 10m, but they are inadvertently 90% exposed to Bitcoin at that point.

2025-06-07 20:34:19 GMT

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This is what it looks like when they’re dying!
Morons

2025-06-07 20:22:22 GMT

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This is critical to remember during the government co-option stage.
They want you to forget this feeling.

2025-06-07 20:07:30 GMT

Unpopular opinion:
A large amount of bitcoiners invested in MSTR during the last pump.
The next pump, profits won’t be taken in bitcoin, but in Bitcoin treasury companies instead.
There may be less Bitcoin available for sale the higher the price goes.

2025-06-07 19:43:25 GMT

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It will happen very soon

2025-06-07 19:34:17 GMT

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This type of governance will exist as long as the current fiat bond market exists.
Once the bonds die, the governance dies.

2025-06-07 19:28:53 GMT

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The tear is coming next week.
https://blossom.primal.net/b6152b5a7801c50f294da59763ecd33bf04f57f6aa168315beb38975f7c57156.png

2025-06-07 19:09:53 GMT

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The next bitcoin rip isn’t just another wonderful pump.
It’s a tear in the Fiat matrix, the end of scepticism in intellectual human beings.
The end to the Fiat bond market.
That’s why we’ve been hanging around 100k for 7months, because the next move is chaos for normies.
Retail aren’t here, not even close, they resent 100k Bitcoin.
500k Bitcoin is when they reluctantly start buying.
1m is when they want to tax us all to hell.
5m is when they want to confiscate by force.
10m is when everyone is a bitcoiner and the game is over.
We’re at the gates. The noise you hear isnt silence, it’s anger.
Prepare.

2025-06-07 18:59:57 GMT

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I think there’s very little time left

2025-06-07 18:34:45 GMT

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Volitility incoming

2025-06-07 17:57:03 GMT

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Next week feels like a big move up.
Could be insane?

2025-06-07 17:53:09 GMT

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Free speech is the best tool to reveal those who think like morons.
Suppressing speech only allows those who hate to hide in the shadows.
Words are powerful. You should own them.
And let the rest of the world will judge you, but should never silence your voice.

2025-06-07 17:44:07 GMT

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Fiat standard default is prolonged emergency stress.
Nothing can make a man stronger than passing through to the other side.

2025-06-06 19:55:41 GMT

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Been more like the top picture for 12 months 😂
Give me the peaks and troughs back please!!

2025-06-06 13:47:20 GMT

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So they bought debt with… *checks notes* more debt…?

2025-06-06 11:18:44 GMT

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If there was ever going to be a large Corporate hodler, I’m glad it’s a lunatic at the helm.

2025-06-06 11:08:22 GMT

GM
Remember…. “Just don’t fucking dance”

2025-06-05 20:21:22 GMT

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😂 Just when we thought we had it all figured out… back to the drawing board fellas!

2025-06-05 20:19:27 GMT

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I’m only hope I make it to 2142 to see if Jamie Dimond’s prediction comes true. That’s the real party:
“I think there’s a good chance that when we get to that 21 million Bitcoins, Satoshi Nakamoto is going to come on there, laugh hysterically, go quiet, and all Bitcoin is going to be erased”

2025-06-05 19:38:39 GMT

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But he only has himself to blame 😂

2025-06-05 19:33:50 GMT

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Is Joe Biden Jim Carey in a rubber mask?

2025-06-05 19:32:20 GMT

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As individuals they have sovereignty…
It’s decentralisation for billionaires!
Fantastic entertainment!

2025-06-05 19:20:19 GMT

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The most entertaining timeline

2025-06-05 18:17:05 GMT

Bear markets are better than whatever this is

2025-06-05 14:53:14 GMT

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“Stonks need to go up”
#nevent1q…u23j

2025-06-05 13:26:18 GMT

The Bitcoin Conference 2025 gave me the same vibes as the first year Glastonbury had no bands headlining.

2025-06-05 13:18:38 GMT

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* tooooo paaaarky?

2025-06-05 10:20:19 GMT

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Should we price bitcoin in Oreo cookies to make it easier for them?
Just think of the adoption it would create!

2025-06-05 10:03:44 GMT

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The appetite is there.
But the degens want triple maxi CEOs not 0.3 Maxis dilution.
The problem might be the CEO thinks he still has an operating business and wants to fund it, not realising it’s just a BTC proxy now.

2025-06-05 09:52:07 GMT

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Looks like shareholders realising they are actually being diluted. Down 5% after 1hr trading.
Expect #SWC to go out and correct with more purchasing or tell people why they’ve been diluted by £10m
Trust is critical in the Bitcoin Treasury Co. Market. Once lost you’ll lose your mnav

2025-06-05 07:54:21 GMT

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Completely agree.

2025-06-05 07:50:00 GMT

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Sold £13m in stock dilution yesterday.
Bought £3m bitcoin.
Where’s the other £10m going. They need to communicate why that is.

2025-06-04 19:41:43 GMT

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Only an individual can make themselves healthy again.
All government departments are inefficient, DOGE is an oxymoron.
The dying embers of citizens outsourcing their problems to a government who can no longer help them.

2025-06-04 09:04:24 GMT

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“They’re not confessing… they’re bragging!”
Bullish on Goldman CVs for IKEA jobs 2026

2025-06-04 08:58:08 GMT

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But the next bear market is going to be so much fun when the suits piss their pants.

2025-06-01 18:59:29 GMT

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Sadly War Printing dwarfs virus printing every time.
The probability of War confiscation of Bitcoin Treasuries increases.

2025-03-16 13:44:42 GMT

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Where there is glory, there is God

2025-03-14 09:04:46 GMT

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For me the tariffs/SBR sell off is a slingshot into the real bull run.
https://m.primal.net/PfRV.png

2025-03-13 20:36:39 GMT

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Completely agree.
We have barely broken prior high inflation adjusted.
Not even close to starting, this 12months of chop-solidation is so fucking boring!

2025-03-10 20:16:27 GMT

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#Bitcoin Down 30%
Me: One dip more to revolution!
https://youtu.be/Sv-BxH3SVS8?si=GVvL5PHEb5oBBCGe

2025-03-10 19:40:38 GMT

Wall Street Trader: OMG I’m 10% down from the top!
Me: One DIP more!
https://youtu.be/Sv-BxH3SVS8?si=kenJwLMgB5PxfZva

2025-03-07 00:49:16 GMT

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He’s not the son of god, he’s a very naughty boy!
The world is a blender, be the strongest human you can be sir!

2025-03-06 23:28:00 GMT

There’s no risk of warfare damage when you invest in #Bitcoin.
You invest in government warfare bonds, you’re hoping they win.

2025-03-03 20:39:21 GMT

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Trump seems to legitimately going for peace. A deal Russia seem content with.
EU globalist and Zelensky seem to be disappointed and angry peace is on the table. They seem to want more young men to die. They appear to want a full blown EU v Russian war, but why?
Starmer saying “boots on the ground” is a massive statement. Would you be happy for Starmer to send Conor to the Ukrainian boarder?
Putin is a dictator, but diplomacy is about ending war with those you don’t agree with. This is an off ramp that should be celebrated, yet the left are angry that the complete destruction of Russia hasn’t been achieved. Shows a lack of geopolitical thinking.

2025-02-28 18:14:20 GMT

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I’m thrilled the volatility is back.
For a moment there I thought bitcoin was being tamed.
Let the swings begin!

2025-02-28 10:37:31 GMT

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I love the smell of volatility in the morning.

2025-02-27 18:39:38 GMT

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I would sleep well, but I can’t stop thinking about the Robot AI dogs. 😬

2025-02-27 18:37:03 GMT

We need the money to be decentralised, not just to separate money and state.
The real need for decentralisation will be to separate money from AI.

2025-02-13 19:17:07 GMT

It’s time to go higher
#bitcoin

2025-02-12 08:03:45 GMT

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I’m pretty sure that’s the Dam Facility level on Golden Eye 64?

2025-02-11 19:52:33 GMT

Something is about to break…
Trump and Bessant focusing on 10yr rate.
Powell saying they don’t control the 10yr rate (despite it being a reflection of inflation expectations)
They know what’s coming and are ready to blame one another.
Something in the bond market is breaking…

2025-02-11 12:02:08 GMT

You can apply tariffs on #gold
You can’t apply tariffs on the #Bitcoin network
Interesting. 🤔

2025-02-07 20:56:56 GMT

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My article on Bitcoin evaporation is not priced in completely agrees!
https://medium.com/@TheyHODL/bitcoin-evaporation-is-not-priced-in-e7dbb6366c1b

2025-02-07 20:25:43 GMT

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“We need a sovereign wealth fund”
Translates to:
“We no longer want the reserve currency “
It’s as easy as that.

2025-02-07 12:19:18 GMT

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Don’t forget this was all done with a laced up bladder football. 🥇

2025-02-07 07:09:55 GMT

Even though #gold is old, it’s telling you where #bitcoin is heading ^10
There are no pullbacks anymore

2025-02-06 14:33:51 GMT

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😂 Take that climate change!

2025-02-05 21:18:50 GMT

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Efficient market hypothesis is consensus level thinking.
Money is made by the convicted contrarians!

2025-02-05 20:43:31 GMT

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Things are very different since Q3 Earnings call:
https://primal.net/e/note1zkwm3d5r6u49z96jv204kaxy2quy4gdskg7s4s07hvdh8y0f8h7s56yv7t

2025-02-05 19:33:07 GMT

If Tesla applied FASB accounting to Bitcoin in Q4 earnings.
You think #MicroStrategy won’t anon?

2025-02-05 19:27:45 GMT

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The Magnificent One
https://primal.net/e/note1zkwm3d5r6u49z96jv204kaxy2quy4gdskg7s4s07hvdh8y0f8h7s56yv7t

2025-02-05 19:26:59 GMT

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The Magnificent One = Strategy
https://primal.net/e/note1zkwm3d5r6u49z96jv204kaxy2quy4gdskg7s4s07hvdh8y0f8h7s56yv7t

2025-02-05 19:26:02 GMT

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The Magnificent One
https://primal.net/e/note1zkwm3d5r6u49z96jv204kaxy2quy4gdskg7s4s07hvdh8y0f8h7s56yv7t

2025-02-05 14:32:34 GMT

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Completely agree there are a lot of ifs! Will be interesting to see how it plays out!

2025-02-05 14:01:51 GMT

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Thank you 🙏🏻

2025-02-05 13:01:50 GMT

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Full Article below:
How MicroStrategy might break the entire investment management system, from passive flows to US stock indexes and cause the greatest Stock Market Collapse of all time!
“You click bait whore”, they yell at me with their JPM lanyards and creased polyester suits.
“MSTR is a Ponzi, you moron, MicroStrategy is insignificant garbage!” they scoff.
But yet…. it is all they can think about. And that’s because their subconscious is doing the math and their entire existence is in jeopardy.
I therefore have a problem. I have played out a scenario in my mind and it has taken me way beyond being too bullish on MicroStrategy and Bitcoin, but instead I find myself floating in the abyss of an investment management apocalyptic hellscape. And I’ve come to the realisation that if MicroStrategy continues on this path of:
1. Conversion of the debt and equity markets available to them, into Bitcoin purchases.
2. Maintaining successful custody of their Bitcoin. If their coins get lost then it’s a very different story. (See my article on Bitcoin is Vapour).
3. Continue to break into Index inclusions.
Then, this ends one place and one place only. They will not only become the world’s largest company by an order of magnitude, but as a result it will break ETFs, Indexes and the US stock market as a whole.
If you are not already up to speed on the 21:21 plan, the convertible debt instruments, preferred debt equity, and the ATM toolkit at MicroStrategy’s disposal, then I suggest you go and research there first.
My assumption in the below is that Saylor and team will continue at pace to accelerate their debt and equity strategy to funnel fiat trad-fi instruments into accretive bitcoin purchases for their shareholders — a pretty safe assumption. My thesis is that the 21:21 plan will one day be the 210:210 plan.
Index collapse
The MicroStrategy shareholders celebrated last year as the NASDAQ100 added MSTR to their index with a 0.47% weighting. As Bitcoin grows, MSTR Market Cap will grow, and playing out the extreme scenario in my mind, we get the fly wheel effect of:
1. Using MSTR debt and equity to buy Bitcoin
2. Bitcoin then goes up
3. MSTR then goes up
4. Weighting for MSTR then goes up in the index
5. Index Rebalancing leads to the sale of other stocks and the purchasing of MSTR
6. MSTR then goes up
7.Using MSTR debt and equity to buy Bitcoin
…. Repeat>Repeat>Repeat
Indexes are distorted flywheels themselves, and for MSTR it is the equivalent of hitting the speed arrows on Mario Cart resulting in exaggerated and accelerated outcomes. As you overtake the competitors in your index you have velocity that shoots you further and further up the index making it harder for those behind to catch you. MSTR is going to have a compounding Bitcoin rocket and an index rocket attached to its share price.
Positive weighting discrimination within the index will cause it to become a 5% weighting, then a 10% weighting, then a 15% weighting, each increase in Market Capitalisation sucking capital away from all other stocks (discriminatively more the higher up the index you are i.e. 7.8% MicroSoft sale to fund additional MSTR rebalancing). I call this the competitive stock draining stage.
This continues until the index limit for a single stock is reached i.e. 24% in NASDAQ100 and 25% in S&P500. This is when the fun starts, and what I would call index draining stage, where the index performance will gradually fall and then collapse as it underperforms bitcoin, MSTR, and bitcoin indexes, extracting capital to where it is performing best. Resulting in the best performing indexes that we have used for decades to either collapse or become zombie indexes.
US stock Collapse
US stocks will collapse against MicroStrategy and Bitcoin from a multitude of angles. Firstly the above scenario via index draining, which will cause all other individual stocks to collapse against MicroStrategy. But what do the individual competitors do to counter the decline in share price that is about to hit them.
Well, any attempt to copy their strategy will only lead to accelerate the trajectory of MicroStrategy to the Magnificent One, as they try to add Bitcoin to their balance sheet they will push MicroStrategy further and further into the lead from an index weighting and an MSTR Market Cap perspective. That doesn’t mean it is not the right strategy, because they will have to stop comparing themselves to the Magnificent One, instead it’s all the other 498 competitors it’s trying to compete against.
Companies will not disapear, but instead only profitable companies and those who hold bitcoin will continue. Share prices will collapse to a sensible Price to Earnings ratio. Companies will be judged on the Bitcoin they hold, Bitcoin Revenue and Bitcoin per share growth.
Too Bullish?
So you see my problem. I must be too bullish, because as I play out the scenario in my mind, MSTR is going to “eat trad-fi from the inside out”, as Punter Jeff would say. But I really mean it. Indexes as we know them may cease to exist in their current state and meaningfulness. Stock market valuations will collapse in real terms. And MicroStrategy will be the Magnificent One by several orders of magnitude, almost to a point where it is its own asset class.
I recently listened to American HODL introduced the AI theory of The Paperclip Optimiser, originally proposed by philosopher Nick Bostrom. A thought experiment of an AGI that has a single goal of optimising for creating paper clips could lead to a world where all resources are consumed in order to generate more and more paperclips, leading to catastrophic outcomes for the planet as all resources are consumed to focus on a single goal of optimising for paper clip creation.
Well, I think MSTR is a Bitcoin HODLing optimiser, and the design will lead to resources (fiat-debt, fiat-capital, fiat-equity) being directed to one goal of giving MicroStrategy more fiat to buy Bitcoin. Unlike the paper clip optimiser where the world ends, the MSTR/Bitcoin optimiser will lead to the end of the Fiat world as every fiat resource is sucked into MSTR to buy Bitcoin until the Fiat system ceases to exist and the hyper-bitcoinization world replaces it.
Summary
If Bitcoin continues on its path and trajectory then it is going to completely re-write the financial system, stock market, debt market and sovereign reserve holdings. It is a biblical achievement. No man, company or country, could achieve such a peaceful and resilient transformation and rewiring of a sick and aging financial system. Yes Satoshi released the code into the world, but Bitcoin did the rest alone, paying humans to maintain it, give it energy, and spread the word of its existence, power and principles.
I am of the current thinking that Bitcoin was not an invention but a discovery, it is mathematical formulas and cryptography that have always existed since the dawn of time. Humankind through Satoshi, has uncovered its existence at the time we most needed it and you can put it down to fate, chance or divine intervention. But ultimately it doesn’t matter, it is unstoppable, and if you have not prepared for what is about to unfold, you should probably start doing the research.
Best of luck and happy HODLing.

2025-02-05 12:56:35 GMT

My latest Article "The Magnificent One" on #Bitcoin #MicroStrategy and the paper clip optimiser.
@nprofile…hs8c @nprofile…7jq0 @nprofile…4knj
https://medium.com/@TheyHODL/the-magnificent-one-e02880e30a7d

2025-02-04 12:44:20 GMT

I have been thinking about Matthew 12:30 where Jesus says: “Whoever is not with me is against me, and whoever does not gather with me scatters”
This seems true of not just following Jesus, but any truth or principle that is fought against.
It seems to echo in the truth of #Bitcoin vs the millions of Shitcoins

2025-02-03 12:07:53 GMT

Trump calling out Triffin’s dilemma is facilitating to see.
Deficit with every country is why there is 35trillion worth of debt.
He is calling out the systems design… not sure he will like the solution?

2025-02-02 18:45:59 GMT

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Yuan money printing devaluation occurred.
I expect China to act even faster this time round.
Prepare for a monetary bazooka

2025-02-02 16:31:20 GMT

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Pretty sure it’s a requirement to be a crazy retard to break free of the Fiat matrix and reach bitcoin enlightenment?!
🤷🏼‍♂️

2025-02-02 15:44:59 GMT

Imagine being bearish #Bitcoin
https://m.primal.net/OMxr.png

2025-02-02 10:10:08 GMT

GM.
My Article from 2023. Reminder to not sell your corn to Blackrock.
https://medium.com/@TheyHODL/bitcoin-etf-hodlers-are-psychopaths-so-prove-it-4f962f49762c

2025-02-02 07:36:18 GMT

If 2019 is any guide.
US tariffs on China results in:
- Yuan made weaker through money printing.
- Surge in Chinese demand in #Bitcoin to avoid debasement.
- 200% increase in Bitcoin price. (4K to 12k)

2025-02-01 22:52:14 GMT

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Everything changed when ETFs were approved.
You cannot take a millions coins off exchanges and not create price chaos.
Fireworks start when 110k breaks.

2025-02-01 21:31:05 GMT

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Don’t shame chart porn.
Bitcoin was founded on chart and price porn. Hal’s 10m call in the first days.
Bitcoin incentivises greed.
Fed up of these zen no price watchers!

2025-02-01 20:16:46 GMT

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$2trillion asset.
Clear mempools.
We are winning.

2025-02-01 19:35:09 GMT

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This is class