Retired Operational Researcher/Statistician/Economist. Worked in Energy Industries/University/Civil Service. Most recently producing UK Energy & Emissions Projections. GNU/Linux user since 1993 (kernel 0.99). Now on Devuan Daedalus/Cinnamon (kernel 6.1). Rower, cyclist, dingy sailor, walker, skier. Socialist, bi, poly, she/her. Fully paid up member of the Guardian reading, tofu eating Wokerati.
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2026-07-06T11:57:38Z Event JSON
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Last Notes npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR add to that he's also been getting UK government subsidies for his INEOS chemicals company, while investing that money abroad and closing Grangemouth refinery in Scotland. I gather he was also touting for government help to redevelop Old Trafford. Just another rich sponger off the state. https://www.thenational.scot/news/24183731.uk-government-snubs-grangemouth-pledges-600m-belgian-project/ https://worldsoccertalk.com/news/ratcliffe-wants-to-use-taxpayer-money-to-rebuild-old-trafford-20240207-WST-488097.html npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR though somehow much what is currently growing in the economy, such as AI data centres and arms manufacture, at the expense of other useful things such as jobs and living wages for people, is not exactly what most of us would have in mind as something we want even more of. But this is their, and Starmer and and Rachel Reeves', wet dream of unsustainable growth. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR canals and rail for commerical use coexisted for a long time. And some canals were actually converted to use for railway lines. Commerical use in the UK almost stopped after the WW2, but some of that was because we were the first to build canals and initially only built narrow canals, on the continent they started later and build wide canals that are still in use . These days canals in the UK are used for leisure and they are still an important part of the UK's water distribution network - I was involved in modelling that at one time. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR I doubt that data centres built for AI and full of GPU with very limited lifetimes and mostly powered by polluting gas turbines will have any consequential use. They may well become the modern equivalent of coal mining's slag heaps. Current attempts to repurpose cryptocurrency mining data centres to AI illustrate the problem of finding new uses for data centres. https://digitalmarketreports.com/news/25353/transition-from-crypto-mining-to-ai-data-centers-faces-significant-challenges/ npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR well I'm sure he had his reasons - clearly the extent of his actual involvement in Epstein's crimes must be enormous and he thinks politically unsurvivable for a President. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR I had a new hip (having fallen off my bike) about two years ago at RDE and they were excellent. Of course mine wasn't elective so no waiting. Exeter developed the Exeter Hip about 50 years ago. The ward I was on - Robin Ling - was named after one of the inventors. And 7 months ago my wife got a new knee (elective), surgeon was from Torbay but hers was a day op at the Nightingale, but I know some other friends who were done (on the NHS) at local private hospitals. Waits were not unbearable. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR surely the "underlying policy logic" of the MPC is a consequence of "The Government sets us a 2% inflation target" and that the current inflation figure is 3.8% (and a Bank Rate of 4%)? So it's the government (currently Reeves) driving this, not the MPC - if only by default - I don't think this government has ever considered changing a policy set long ago in a very different time and driven by an outdated model of how the economy works and what the scope of 'BoE independence' should imply. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/inflation npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR as a (retired) Operational Researcher while I agree with the inapplicability of JIT to hospital bed and staff provision, JIT was intended as a way of managing production process without having to hold large buffer stocks of inventory between processes. However what is relies on is not that demand is entirely constant but that the demand changes can to predicted and that material can be supplied at relatively short notice and processes speeded up when needed. In the case of hospitals although there is a roughly predictable variation between summer and winter it is not entirely so - witness the latest flu surge - or the effect of snow increasing the number of falls. And the workforce can't be varied much in the same way to follow load. In practice what hospitals do is postpone scheduled 'elective', non-emergency admissions (such as hip and knee replacements) to try and create capacity for emergency ones. They also end up having to put patients from the in-demand speciality into other wards. This simply increases problems elsewhere and increases overall waiting times for treatment. I doubt if anyone in the NHS actually thinks it is operating a JIT system. It's entirely inappropriate. At a strategic level they are just not managing it well and not putting what money they do have into tackling the biggest bottlenecks in the most cost-effective way. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR to be honest I didn't think there is much wrong with how eye testing works in the UK. Many people are entitled to both a free eye test and support from the purchase of glasses. While the cost of the test for those that do have to pay is (about £27) is similar to the cost of a NHS dental check up, there are plenty of (private) opticians you can book with whether your eye test is free or not. Clearly the support offered to Opticians to provide the test is sufficient to get them to provide the service. This is certainly not true of Dentists. It is basically impossible to sign up for NHS Dental treatment here is Devon. I do still get NHS Dental treatment, having been a NHS patient for many years, but my family don't any longer as they were with another practice that went entirely private. Even my practice only has one NHS Dentist, I suspect it's basically a job for initiating foreign qualified dentist: all my dentist have had a foreign qualification and once the dentist has a track record they also go private and I (eventually) get a new one. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR Also noting that this source gives the current Microsoft p/e as 34, somewhat different from the F/T chart. Perhaps a bit more digging is required? https://worldperatio.com/stock/msft/ npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR wondering why they've included Oracle from 2000, but not Oracle today. It's current p/e is 44. So now higher than all the other big players except Tesla. https://worldperatio.com/stock/orcl/ npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR Paying generators, such as gas fired, for the cost of just sitting there not generating is what the Governments Capacity Market is for. I am of course assuming it works as originally designed (I worked in DECC when they devised this more than 10 years ago, before I retired but this was not my direct reponsibility). "The Capacity Market ensures security of electricity supply by providing a payment for reliable sources of capacity. " https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/electricity-market-reform-capacity-market I doubt it there is any call at the moment to actually invest in new gas generation capacity, we just to keep the existing plants available so the price they get should then just largely reflect the cost to them of buying gas, and their conversion efficiency (about 60%). I would hope that we never need new gas plant - we should be looking at, and investing in, other non-fossil fueled means of filling in for intermittency. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR maybe it's time to stop chasing unsustainable GDP growth, particularly when it seems to involve investment in stranded assets such as AI data centres, oil and gas exploration, nuclear power generation, grey hydrogen and CCS? Maybe put our money into improving peoples lives by insulating people's homes. improving flood defenses and investing in a publically run NHS and Care system. And meanwhile use the tax and benefits systems to do a bit more redistribution from the rich to everyone else. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR at present we already pay gas, and previously coal, generators to be there to run idle, it's called the Capacity mechanism. And if we followed Ecotricity's suggestion those generators would still get their bid price, just everyone would get their bid price, not what the gas generators, as the most expensive bidder gets. In my view what each type of generator should get should be determined by their long term cost of supply, which surely is set through their Contract for Difference price, not the cost of the marginal supplier on the day. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR confusingly mortgage interest costs are not included in the inflation measure (CPI) that the BoE is targeting. And these days most mortgage's interest rates are fixed over a period of 2-5 years so changes to interest rates take a longer time to impact household outgoings. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR meanwhile the Bank of England seems to have other concerns. I know the BoE is supposed to be independent but maybe it would be sensible for the Treasury to listen to what they are saying. https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2025/12/06/the-bank-of-england-is-warning-a-financial-crash-is-coming/ npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR surely the OBR forecasts include government policies? They are never policy free business as usual projections, though the projections are likely to change when policies are announced in the budget. Since the government keeps talking about controlling benefits by various means, although it has to keep revisiting what those proposed measures are, then surely the OBR are including their assumed impact? npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR and as is spelt out in the article it's very clear that privatising some services lead to crap services for patients and is eye wateringly expensive at the same time. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR on the other hand, many people are missing out on benefits they are entitled too, clearly at odds with this idea that poor and disabled all know how to game the system. https://policyinpractice.co.uk/blog/missing-out-2024-23-billion-of-support-is-unclaimed-each-year/ npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR "Now the key issue is why the change, and what impact that will (and perhaps was intended to) have on the conduct of the review & the conclusions reached." From the article it seems they already have form on this: "In the F-35 exports judicial review, Chamberlain was replaced by Steyn and Lord Justice Males. They found that Britain’s decision to allow the export of F-35 fighter jet components to Israel was lawful, despite accepting they could be used in breach of international humanitarian law in Gaza." Noting Chamberlain was the original judge in both cases. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR I remain amazed that PFI can even be considered. The government can always borrow more cheaply than the private sector, so given the financiers will always also want to take a cut as well then it will be always cheaper for the government to finance any such investment themselves. PFI has never been anything but another very expensive way of massaging the statistics. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR they are still green lighting expansion at the regional airports too. We don't need more airport capacity, full stop. For environmental reasons we should be taking positive action to discourage air travel whichever airport is uses. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR also, although not a target for the revue, still no action to remove the cliff-edge design of the carers allowance, where a small overpayment leads to the whole payment being withdrawn, rather than just the amount overpaid. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR And £12k per person is also £24k if you are a couple. Like most of the other stuff being trailed in advance ("Benefit Clampdown", cuts to heat pump grants, EV mileage charges) this seems to be purely performative, to give the appearance that she is actually doing something, whereas all she is doing is avoiding doing anything about the real issues we face as a country. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR and, on the other side of the ledger, by the amount of unclaimed benefits. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR so under this plan presumably all migrants will also get income tax and national insurance exemptions too? npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR surely it's ideological? The Labour Party Leadership has been captured by right minded nutters who actually believe in what they are doing and fooling themselves that some of their dog-whistle idiot policies* will also prove popular. Starmer's and McSweeney's reputed 'pragmatism' seems to be merely limited to lying to the party members and the rigging the choice of MP candidates to get them into power and keep it for this parliament. * not widely publicised, but there have been a few policy proposals (such as on workers rights and stopping profiteering by touts and tickets resellers) that if sold properly could appeal to the voters. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR puzzled by the rows with blank country names in the chart, even though they have life expectancies shown. https://www.health.org.uk/evidence-hub/health-inequalities/trends-in-international-life-expectancy-at-birth npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR so, relative to other countries, the UK is not doing well for either sex. "In 2000, the UK ranked 20th out of the 38 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries for female period life expectancy at birth. By 2022 it had fallen to 26th place, with five countries (Ireland, Denmark, Republic of Korea, Slovenia and Chile) overtaking the UK in female period life expectancy estimates during that period. Although the UK ranks better for male period life expectancy, improvements between 2010 and 2022 were smaller than seen in other OECD countries. When ranked by male period life expectancy, the UK fell from 13th place in 2010 to 19th place in 2022, of the 38 OECD countries." Could the difference between the improvement in life expectancy at birth sexes relate to our relative poor performance in maternity services (keeping mother's alive)? Or are there any other suggestions? npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR dose have a chart showing the difference in life expectancy between the UK and other countries for males? npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR it's not clear to me how simply putting more of the ONS's bodies to work on it is going to help with the Labour Force Survey. The main problem it that relies on surveys being returned and these days very few are. It need a strategic rethink first. "Response rates to the LFS, which involves a letter sent to households and followed up with a phone or in-person interview, were already falling before 2020, then plunged during the pandemic and remained low afterwards – hitting a nadir of 17.4% last year. The Living Costs and Food Survey – used in the GDP readings – receives similar response rates increasing the chance of GDP revisions, Bloomberg reported. Economists are concerned that the labour market survey may be more likely to pick up people who are at home – potentially overestimating economic inactivity. The Resolution Foundation thinktank has suggested the LFS may have “lost” up to 930,000 workers. That matters, because one of the key worries about the economy since the pandemic has been that the employment rate – the share of the population in a job – has never returned to 2019 levels, making the UK an international outlier. The ONS has been building up a new index, the “transformed labour Market Survey”, to replace the LFS. But repeated twists and tweaks mean it may not be ready to launch until 2027." This is from nearly a year ago. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/dec/23/ons-job-figures-labour-force-survey-data npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR if the purpose of the inflation measure used in these negotiations is to include housing costs and to be reasonably accurate both the government are using the wrong measure. The ONS do produce a measure based on CPI that includes housing costs, it's called CPIH. The RPI does include an estimate of housing cost inflation but the way it measures inflation contains a indexing mistake which gnerneally overstates inflation by around 1%. The ONS did produce an experimental version of RPI that corrected this but the government didn't adopt it, probably because RPI is used for inflation linked gilts and they don't want to annoy their city masters who they owe money to. They also use it to calculate inflation when people pay them, eg student loans and rail fares while pensions use CPI (also wrong as it excludes housing costs). It would be interesting to see the numbers if they could all agree to use CPIH. Maybe split the difference? https://obr.uk/box/the-long-run-difference-between-rpi-and-cpi-inflation/ https://www.icaew.com/library/research-guides/price-indices/rpi-cpi-and-cpih npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR good interview, though at the end he rather sidetracked around the issue of 'pregnant people' rather than pregnant women in the BBC guidelines by just criticising a journalist for eye-rolling. Surely the reason is clear enough: a man, a trans man, can still become pregnant and several actually have and given birth. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR surely the biggest threat to the Labour party is the authoritarian right wing faction that's its current excuse for leadership. Only by reclaiming it's own party can the soft left have any hope of continued existence. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR John Deere tractors aren't cheap, to buy or to repair. I wonder where the Chinese got the idea of software/IP lock in from? https://pluralistic.net/2022/08/15/deere-in-headlights/#doh-a-deere npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR that's old news, membership is now over 150,000. https://greenparty.org.uk/2025/10/28/greens-within-touching-distance-of-labour/ npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR public services make up 20% of GDP, and measuring their productivity remains a challenge. AsI recall the way we different measured this was one reason the UK's GDP dropped so much during the start of the COVID pandemic. There was a recent (March 2025) Statistical Authority report on measurement issues here: https://uksa.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/publication/national-statisticians-independent-review-of-the-measurement-of-public-services-productivity/ npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR a lot of us have old (mine's 10), but still serviceable, cars doing little mileage (we don 5,000 miles/yr) and it's hard to justify investing in a large expensive lump of metal with a battery we might have difficulty charging. My 10 year old car also has physical controls and an actual handbrake and is not connected not the internet. This doesn't mean that I don't think all new cars should be full EV for those that can justify a new car. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR and, of course at least in respect of Trumps support for fellow ultra right winger Milei in Argentina, it doesn't seems to be working out very well. From the article: "Whatever the rationale, it’s not clear their strategy is helping much. The Argentine peso sank to record lows yesterday, with little indication that the midterms were going to turn in Milei’s favor (who could have guessed that voters may not like the idea of being run by an American-puppet government?) and traders seemingly unimpressed by Bessent’s pitch of the currency as a prudent investment. The United States is now the proud owner of $20 billion in increasingly worthless Argentinian currency. America First, baby!" npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR well goes to show how unrepresentative your #Fediverse readers are. According to Mt Altman most people just love their ChatGPT girlfriends. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR further investigation finds: "According to The Financial Times, under present laws, a new foreign resident, or a returning Italian who has lived abroad for at least nine years, can pay a flat tax of €200,000 per year on any overseas income and assets for up to 15 years while being completely exempt from inheritance tax on foreign assets during that time." So it's a voluntary quid pro quo for shielding their foreign assets from inheritance (and income?) tax. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR I'm guessing that's not the rate for all even moderately wealthy foreign residents, most of whom I expect earn less than the current €200,000 pa. surcharge. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR taking you to be talking about LLMs (Chatbots) when you say "AI" they are actually worse than a distraction from the climate crisis - hyper-investment in data centres to run the awful things is actively bringing it on. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR and then there's now CIA ops (widely reported): "Trump gives CIA permission for ‘covert’ action in Venezuela as president says military ‘looking at land’ strikes" https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-cia-venezuela-boat-strike-land-b2846191.html npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR you should have used a Samsung! https://www.howtogeek.com/879508/no-moon-photos-on-samsung-galaxy-phones-arent-fake/ npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR private ('Public') schools and grammar schools were there when I went to school in the '50s and '60s. More so in some areas than others and I'm not sure this has changed that much. Some comprehensives had and maybe still do have a more representative class mix. Both my kids went to a comprehensive, but selective schools were available. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR short of police manpower today? Maybe we could have cancelled a few football matches instead? Very disrespectful playing football on such a day. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR McSweeny and Blair getting Starmer to come out in favour of something is clearly the kiss of death for a policy. "SUPPORT for digital IDs has plummeted among the public since Keir Starmer announced a plan to introduce them. In an awkward development for the UK Government, a More In Common poll has shown net support for digital ID cards fell from 35% in the early summer to -14% at the weekend following Starmer’s announcement, The Guardian has reported." https://uk.news.yahoo.com/support-digital-ids-plummets-keir-130512618.html npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR so, given that (I understand) we already attribute notional rent paid to themselves by owner occupiers and include that in GDP can I also assume that we include the value of both paid (whether notional by Carers Allowance or when a carer is employed) and unpaid care in GDP as well? npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR surely if Scotland were to be able to take a more civilised and sensible approach to asylum seekers any greater security on the England/Scotland border would be to stop people, whether immigrant or not, fleeing this benighted country not coming here? npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR is the gender gap really men doing the same job getting paid more or that men are better represented in the better paid jobs? Usually (in the past I've had to look at this in a government department) it's more of the latter rather than the former and some of that is that women, often with more broken careers, both go for promotion less and then more frequently fail to get promoted when they do. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR what it doesn't say is what they have 'saved' by reducing the number of Georgians who would otherwise be entitled to receive Medicaid. Either it stopped a lot of poorer ill people claiming or it costs more than it saved. Presumably cruelty is the point. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR is that wealth net or gross of debt (e.g. mortgages), particularly in housing. Appeciating that a good proportion of pensioners who were buying their homes have actually paid off their mortgages. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR I'm sure what he simply wants is no more updates (showing everything is tanking) before the US midterm elections. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR there's a new article by Richard Murphy covering Phoenixing in more depth, with some suggested ways of tackling it here: https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2025/09/12/how-to-end-phoenixing-now/ I doubt any of this is being covered in the Civil Services Tufton Street briefings discussed here by George Monbiot though: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/sep/11/tories-rightwing-junktanks-no-10-government-civil-servants npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR (fellow former NCB employee here). At least in the coal industry lessons were learned and safety measures continuously improved, more so after nationalisation. And the death toll fell, if never entirely eliminated. On the other hand a feature of financial markets is that they are cyclic: after each bust regulation is tightened and then after a while the market and their regulators forget, while new means of creating the Bezzle* are invented. This was well understood and documented by Kenneth Galbraith. Currently, in the latest, post-2008, market boom Private Equity (Vulture Capital) operates such a Bezzle: they buy undervalued companies using borrowed money, load them up with debt (leverage), sell and leaseback their assets and use their capital for shares buybacks rather than productive investment so they can extract dividends and falsely inflate the price of the shares. Once they have gutted the company they then sell them on to more naive investors such as pension funds. A recent example for this is what Macquarie (a PE vehicle) did at Thames Water. Note to Rachel from Accounts: do some reading in Ecomonic History, start with Galbraith. No doubt this wasn't included in your PPE economics. TL;DR these vultures needs policing not encouraging. * The Bezzle https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_bezzle npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR the Independant bring us details of the ONS's surprising take on air fares prices July 2025 compared to July 2024. Unfortunately, as we have now come to expect, their approach made little sense. The move of expertise out of London to Newport (many of their better and more experienced statisticians didn't go) doesn't seem to have turned out well. "In summary, the ONS chose to compare air fares in 2024 with no significant “school holiday effect” against those this year on which the inbound legs sustained strong demand and therefore higher prices. Unsurprisingly, statisticians saw a sharp increase in July 2025 compared with a year earlier. It was the largest monthly rise in air fares recorded since data collection began in 2001, and was enough to impact significantly the headline rate of inflation." https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/inflation-uk-summer-air-fares-price-rise-ons-b2814973.html npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR rather than remove the words, since he says he was the one who included the words "take account of" perhaps he can come up with an explanation as to why UK counrt shoudn't 'follow' ECHR decisions. Surely following case law is very much way UK law works and the existing words also imply the UK courts do have discretion to deviate from ECHR decisions when this was justified? Maybe they follow because the ECHR was right. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR presumably they are also asking to be renationalised? npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR Starmer's total failure to represent Labour Party members is also shown by the fall in membership. It's dropped from a high of 534,046 in 2019 to a new low of 333, 235 now. A drop of over 200,000 or 38%. What's the point in staying in a party when its leaders take no notice of what you do or think? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce83jgnx4w5o npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR our plum tree (we live in South Devon) is several years old now but this was the first season we have had a useable crop. And it was a good crop: several kilos pitted. However fearing the birds would take them, like they always do the cherries, we havested it a month or so ago and we have now a good supply of plum jam. We also got a good picking of greengages from a friend who otherwise couldn't reach the higher fruit. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR eek. Can a Waymo change nappies? What happens if it never arrives? If the baby is lucky social services will have taken it off their hands (that what the do if parents are uanble to look after theri children). npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR the ONS claim that the rise is air fares and that might be due to changes in where uropean summer holidays fall, so essentially a measurement error (not comparing like with like). You would not neccesarily expect it to correlate with air freight costs, which as you say would eventually appear elsewhere in the retail prices of food and other air freighted items. However I would interested in how ONS do their surveys, weights and explanations: much of summer holiday traffic is package holidays and even if families are just buying flights they are often bought well in advance of the actual month of travel. So what air fares do they sample in their survey? npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR this is what the ONS says about transport prices. The big increase is in air fares, seemingly to due with changes in the school holiday dates. Road fuel prices are up from last month but actually down from a year ago. The devil is in the detail. "Prices in the transport division rose overall by 3.2% in the 12 months to July 2025, up from 1.7% in the 12 months to June (Figure 3). On a monthly basis, prices rose by 2.2% in July 2025, compared with a rise of 0.7% a year ago. The rise in the annual rate reflected a large upward effect from airfares which rose by 30.2% between June and July 2025, compared with a rise of 13.3% between the same months in 2024. The monthly rise in July 2025 is the largest July increase since collection of airfares changed from quarterly to monthly in 2001 and was probably influenced by the timing of school summer holidays. Returning European flights were during the school term in 2024, whereas returning European flights were during the school holidays in 2025, which may have made these flights more expensive. The rise in the annual rate also reflected a large upward effect from motor fuels. The average price of petrol rose by 2.0 pence per litre between June and July 2025, compared with a fall of 1.4 pence per litre between June and July 2024. The average price stood at 133.9 pence per litre in June 2025, down from 144.4 pence per litre a year earlier. Similarly, diesel prices rose by 2.9 pence per litre in July 2025, compared with a fall of 1.1 pence per litre in July 2024. The average price stood at 141.4 pence per litre in June 2025, down from 150.4 pence per litre a year earlier. These movements resulted in overall motor fuel prices falling by 6.7% in the 12 months to July 2025, compared with a larger fall of 9.0% in the 12 months to June. There were also upward effects from sea fares and from roadside recovery services." https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/july2025 npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR there is an explanation (not sure I fully understand it myself and I doubt it makes sense in MMT) by the OBR, here: "Unfunded pension liabilities represent the second-largest government liability after gilts, but are not included in the PSNFL measure of debt. In this box [i.e. article], we analysed the treatment of unfunded pensions in the National Accounts and the fiscal risks they create." https://obr.uk/box/fiscal-risks-from-public-service-pensions/ npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR I think the sums for the TPS are done by the government's actuaries. I also have a British Coal (BCSSS) staff pension. It's a parallel scheme for to the Mineworkers in that it has a Government guarantee. But both schemes are both closed and funded but have actually accumulated a surplus in a sub-fund to buffer the government in the event they proved underfunded. The Govt. committed and delivered on returning the Mineworker surplus to their pensioners. We are waiting to see what they do about the BCSSS scheme. So could both the teachers and university lecturers scheme actually br overfunded and employers contribution could come down while not affecting pensions? Of course the Universitty Lecturer scheme has money in Thames Water, which must be a bit moot. Of course how the sums are done by the actuaries is a bit odd, so I understand current high interest rates makes them all look good. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR the majority of both current and former staff at the post-92 universities (which includes me) are in the Teachers Pension Scheme (TPS), that also covers school teachers. The TPS is not a funded scheme. Are there parallel proposals to change future pensions of those currently working in Education? npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR currently there are 7.6m - not all unique - on a NHS England waiting list. Many more are taking prescriptions medicines. So a lot more than 4% of us are engaged with the NHS at any one time and given the wait times on waiting lists it is unsurprising that many are not happy with the state of the NHS. In truth it is woefully underresourced and the staff overextended. On the other hand, according to a recent survey, three-quarters (75.4 percent) of us had a good experience of their GP practice. https://www.england.nhs.uk/2025/07/nhs-delivers-record-numbers-of-treatments-as-waiting-list-drops-to-26-month-low/ npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR surely Capital Gains Tax ia, as it says, a tax on the Capital gain not on the original investment, And Inheritance Tax is a tax on the assets received by the inheritors of the estate who didn't make any investment at all (apart from keeping in with the person who died). npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR my thinking is that in no sense are inheritance taxes double taxed at the moment, any more than pensions are (an equally spurious claim). But yes, CGT should be equalised to your marginal income tax rate by treating it as income (20%, 40%, 45%) by treating it as income but they should also remove the anomalous marginal income tax rate between £100k and £125k caused by the withdrawal of the personal allowance (just raise the marginal rate to 45% at £100k). npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR the (marginal) inheritance tax rate is 40%, same as the higher rate from income tax. The average rate is much less (just as it is for income tax) because of the size of the various allowances, with most estates not paying anything. unlike income tax, where most people pay standard rate. However the average income tax rate is still quite low even for most higher rate tax payers. There already upcoming changes to include unspent pension savings and (partially) agricultural assets. And, of course, the very rich use trusts to completely bypass it. The media speculation I'd seing relate more to taxing gifts made before death. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rachel-reeves-treasury-inheritance-tax-autumn-budget-b2806546.html npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR we'll probably lose the ozone layer first. So slap on your SPF50. Also unneccesary electrical emissions due to bad design are really mucking up ground based radio telescopes. It really is the wild west up there. https://explorersweb.com/starlink-satellites-are-leaking-radio-emissions/ npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR I fail to see the logic in her intervening given her stated priorities. Giving millions of consumers £950 or so in helicopter money would seem a very effective way on getting some growth into the UK economy, unless they all spaff it on imports and foreign holidays. It certainly worked with PPI even though quite a lot of that was siphoned off by claims managements companies. But maybe here real priority is to line up a few dodgy bank directorships when she, hopefully sooner rather than later, gets tossed out of her current job. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR "but yes, very odd we have no documentation of an #orca killing a human in the wild" Maybe they don't think we taste/smell all that nice. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR possible. I found that switching to a different DNS provider has, for now at least, restored the connection. Google, Cloudflare and Quad9 were all not working for me. CleanBrowsing Family Filter (185.228.168.168) is. I trust its not a geoblocking thing due to the UK OSA. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR No, no IPv6. Apart from anything else I don't think my ISP (Zen) support it and it's not configured in my router. And as far as I'm aware there have no configuration changes, at my end, between when it was working and now. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR Can anyone help me with a strange 'social.linux.pizza' issue I have or has anyone else the same problem? I have three devices, a (Linux) PC, an Android phone and an Honor 12" Android Tablet. Both Tablet and Phone are on Android 14. I can see and post on 'social.linux.pizza' on the PC and phone. On the PC I use the advanced web interface (AWI), and on the Phone Tusky. On the Tablet, it also used to work but since yesterday, I can no longer access social.linux pizza. In the past I always used the AWI on the Tablet but I get the same issue if I try Tusky. On the Tablet I can dig and ping 'social.linux.pizza', so DNS seems to be be working but in the browser I get "Address not found". I normally use Firefox as my browser but the same issue occurs if I try using Chrome. If I type in 'linux.pizza' or 'blog.linux.pizza' or go to any other website I can connect OK. @npub1est…r25g npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR what puzzled me about Inman's article is the reference to the tax breaks you get by retiring early. Apart from the fact that you have to accumulate more in your pension quicker and higher rate tax relief on pensions make this easier - if you have the income - I can't think how any of you make tax savings by retiring early, in fact you get tax breaks by retiring later, after state pension age as you stop paying NI contributions. Of course this doesn't mean so much now you have to wait so long for a state pension. NB at one time there was a limit ('lifetime allowance') on how much you could accumulate into your pension tax free, and it used to encourage e.g. (well paid) GPs to retire early, but the limit has now gone. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR I got up on a ladder and stripped the plums off our plum tree this morning, then stoned them to give us 2.4 Kg of fruit. We are currently cooking the second of our two batches of jam. The first batch made about 1.5 Kg of jam and the second should do the same. It's been a good year for plums down here in Devon. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR my own gut reaction, having to what is changing already here and abroad is that the claim that climate change and human abuse of the land could push up UK food prices by more than a third by 2050 is a wild underestimate to rival Nordhaus' Econ-Nobel Prize winning but entirely delusional claims as to its minimal impact on world GDP. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR well done you. We always try and grow corn each year, with mixed success in some due to wind damage or some animal or bird eating the cobs. This year we only got 5 plants to germinate, though they are now growing well and are now showing ears. Noting ours are much shorter than yours. And we have interplanted a squash plant and that has been growing well and already have two healthy gourds. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR just seen that there is now a (positive) article covering the record breaking crowd at the London Trans Pride in the Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/london-trans-pride-march-record-breaking-crowd-b2796853.html npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR small comfort, maybe, but it is in the Guardian, and fairly prominently on the landing page: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/jul/26/tens-of-thousands-of-people-take-to-streets-for-london-trans-pride-2025 npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR what seems worse, to me, is that apparently Tea app weren't even supposed to be keeping the verification data, including photos, after they had verified an applicant. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR In the UK we feishise private property, when for the majority of their lives these who can get on the 'property ladder ' don't really own their onw houses anyway, they are mortgaged up to the hilt and may still be in debt when they hit retirement age. Having a properly regulated and prefably publically owned rented sector, where tenants are not living in poorly maintained and insulated buildings, that they can't even improve themselves and which is both excessively expensive and them having to live under the threat of being thrown out (particular if they complain about anything) at the whim of the landlord might also help. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR it's now 12 years since ONS removed RPI as a national statistics. About time the government sorted out their misuse of this deprecated measure. "In 2013, the RPI lost its status as a National Statistic. Our position on the RPI is clear: we do not think it is a good measure of inflation and discourage its use. There are other, better measures available and any use of RPI over these far superior alternatives should be closely scrutinised." https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/shortcomingsoftheretailpricesindexasameasureofinflation/2018-03-08 npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR statisticians know that there is a technical error in RPI, which could be corrected and leads to it overstating inflation by about 1% a year. The fault is in the government in still using it. The problem seems to be that inflaion linked gilts also use RPI as their measure and 'confidence of the city' is their excuse for not changing it. So, years, the government shouldn't be using RPI for other things, such as student loan repayments and rail fir increases. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR 1) my email address has been around decades, so less problems with trust. We did have a bit of an issue in Jan 2020 when a spammer found a postfix misconfiguration allowing open relay. Fixed quickly but It took a little while to get trust back. 2) I have a fixed IP with Zen and my server is in a cabinet in our house. Before that we used to run it on a Linode. 3) Link for the TLS issue here: https://letsencrypt.org/2025/05/14/ending-tls-client-authentication/ npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR my home email server is still communicating fine at the moment. Nevertheless there is a looming issue around getting free, acceptable to Google, TLS certificates in the near future as Letsencrypt will stop issuing ones that are valid for TLS. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR I think the count of arrests in Essex is now up to five. The Police are really clamping down hard on the nazis, but of course they are harder to catch and may try to resist arrest. Much simply to bang up grannies holding up hand written cardboard signs opposing genocide. https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jul/20/police-warn-inflammatory-online-posts-clashes-essex-asylum-hotel npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR lot of good points about the false household analogy and that austerity will often increases need for govt.services later, but probably also worth mentioning the multiplier, cutting public expenditure that goers into (usually poor) people pockets also cuts their spend too and that then reduces the income of the the recipients of that spend, further cutting growth. The other big fallacy is of course the idea that government investment 'crowds out' allegedly more productive private investment, when the opposite is actually the case. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR do these 'offenses' go to jury trial? If so how jurors react could be interesting. Jurors: you have an absolute right to acquit a defendant according to your conscience.” npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR the full set is here (unless the BBC have cut it): https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m002fbpw/glastonbury-kneecap They are an Irish band. Some songs are in their native language. And some have the words on the screen behind them, which you might be able to glimpse. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR Under the Tories, tax threshold were frozen in the 2022 budget. Hunt in the 2023 budget announced the continued freezing of tax allowances until 2028. I don't recall Reeves changing that, though of course I may be mistaken. But if so how does this provide extra money to pay for the latest half-arsed proposal from Starmer to not penalise some of the the disabled? Presumably by announcing freezing thresholds until the end of OBR's 5 year forecast horizon when she fools herself that she must 'balance the books'. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-67484100 npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR well in my opinion Foster's design for the bridge is pretty gaudy shit. And it's replacing a perfectly good bridge, at least the wobbly Millennium bridge provided a new crossing to the Tate. Wouldn't it make much more sense to stick with the existing bridge and rename it the Queen Elizabeth II Memorial Bridge and put a plaque to her late Majesty on it saying so? npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR of course the ever reliable @npub1j79…rc5v has produced a report with a long list of options for how to tax the rich and remove some of the inequities in our tax system : https://taxingwealth.uk/ npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR thanks for the reply and clarification. And continued thanks for running this instance so effectively - absolutely no complaints. And thanks too to your quiet extra moderator. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR I understand the sense in limiting registrations, particularly as you seem the only person running social.linux.pizza (?), and expanding indefinitely would imply the need to changing from that to having a team, and having to manage them has its downsides. Likewise I think medium size instances work better and add resilience to the Fediverse. However I'm a bit unclear how invitation only would work. When I joined in December 2022 I had to give a reason for choosing this instance and you then had to approve the application. If it was invitation only would you be the one to send invites, in which case I would imagine invites would be quite rare, or could existing members sponsor an applicant? npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR Recently Labour seem to be slavishly following the Trump Playbook when it comes to economic policy and wilfully choosing the worst option. At present the price of electricity is set by the most expensive energy source, at the margin, which is gas most of the time and consequently there must be profit for all the other producers who get that same price, At the same time the cost of green subsidies, and the costs of supplier failures are all loaded onto the electricity fixed charge. Apart from all that profit being taken from the public for their energy supply, over pricing electricity doesn't incentivise households to switch from gas to heat pumps, which is what needs to happen. So apparently Labour are now considering giving Rosebank and Jackdaw energy fields permission to develop as it seems we will run out of North Sea oil and gas by 2050. FFS we are not supposed to be still using oil and gas in 2050. npub154pctaljw8zq4qa8rgeut79tvw3qkxml6vyr58zz88qjz3q97tgqf0gwly MarjorieR it's always much cheaper to borrow the money to invest if you are the government than if you are a private company, even ignoring the profit element (which you might have to pay anyway if you contract out the actual works). But yes the civil service will have to negotiate contracts in either case.