International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Editor of Arc Digital. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery. 🌉 bridged from 🦋 nicholasgrossman.bsky.social, follow @bsky.brid.gy to interact
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2026-08-17T03:58:06Z Event JSON
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Last Notes npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Alito, paraphrased: You say the president’s blatantly racist statements are evidence of racist intent, and therefore illegal violation of rights? Yeah, well, whatabout this clip of a TikTok I saw on Fox News where some lib with 17 followers said something I don’t like? Whatabout that, huh? npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Trump going to China, kissing up to Xi, asking for help with Iran, and not getting it is another sign of America's decline. But that doesn't mean China is about to take over. What's replacing US global leadership is... Nothing. Which is very dangerous. Read my latest, in @[email protected] : Staggering Towards Anarchy npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Eric Trump joining Donald Trump on an official state visit to China is much more corrupt than anything involving Joe and Hunter Biden, yet New York Times coverage indicates the opposite. I show the contrast here, and challenge anyone to explain how it isn’t media bias in Trump’s favor. Proof the New York Times is Bi... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Iran’s *trying* to crash the economy, you naive Pollyanna banker. That increases their leverage and the chance of getting concessions. Trump—the guy you backed for president—got the US in a bad position, unable to get a deal and unwilling to admit failure. But it’s stupid, you say? Yes. Yes it is. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman One big vibecession theory will get a test. 1980s saw higher inflation than 2020s, yet 2020s consumer sentiment has been lower. An explanation for that from vibecession skeptics is that people were more used to inflation in the 1980s. So that predicts sentiment will rise now as things get worse. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Considering how many times White House claims of imminent peace have proven false, maybe media shouldn't make their claims the headline? But I guess that ship has sailed. (Metaphorically. The real ships aren't sailing, which should be a bigger factor in describing the situation than "Trump says"). npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Even with the Virginia court reversing the state's redistricting referendum—pretty undemocratic, no?—I stand by this argument I made in @[email protected] in February. Concern is very warranted. Doomerism and despair can be self-defeating, prompting the "obey in advance" that helps authoritarianism. Trump Can’t Steal the Midterms npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Stuff like this makes me feel optimistic that: 1) It's true that Trump can't turn out large numbers when he isn't directly on the ballot himself. 2) Democrats want to act in defense of democracy, instead of letting Republican bad faith or media's forced "Both Sides" pearl clutching carry the day. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Oil futures open for trading at 6:00pm Eastern time on Sunday nights, if anyone's curious. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Trump is seeking a deal with Iran, presumably to stop the economic damage, but what if Iran doesn't want the war to end yet? They've got a stranglehold on global energy, they rejected the US peace offer, and America's leadership doesn't seem to know what to do. My latest, in @[email protected] : What If Iran Doesn’t Want the ... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman @charlesgaba.com, we talked a bit about the book. Did you see the movie? If so, what’d you think (no spoilers for those who haven’t read or seen it please, not even stuff that was in the movie preview). #nevent1q…749r npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman The US sending more troops to the Middle East, including a few thousand Marines, illustrates the White House's stupid, short-sighted incompetence. If going to war, position them in advance, don't deploy a few weeks into it. Takes time to get there, while death, chaos, and economic damage increases. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman If in the future there's an Iran-linked terrorist attack against the US, or if Iran get nuclear weapons, it will be Donald Trump's fault. But there will be immense social pressure against saying so, because while factually accurate, it'll be considered partisan, biased, and old news. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Oil price spiked then mostly went back down. One of the weirder market moves I've seen. Big supply crunch makes price rise, then with the supply crunch continuing unabated falls back to close to where it was. steady demand + supply crunch = price rise Or at least that's how it's supposed to work. https://inkcap.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne&cid=bafkreigygpwgli2qjeqkgxsvvi7ju4b3hlz2swwlkh37lpfqafdqzfsn3y npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman All that diplomatic capacity the Trump regime denigrated, degraded, and dismantled would’ve been awfully useful when launching a war involving a dozen countries and impacting the global economy, argues @[email protected] . Trump and Rubio dismantled U.S... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman War hype videos mixing footage of real world violence with scenes from movies and video games are messed up. The Iran war, economic damage, and domestic political implications. The SAVE Act and threats to elections. All that and more, in conversation with the great @[email protected] . The “Crude” Economic Reality o... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman “Who could’ve seen this coming?” is highly unpleasant when the answer is “most people who know anything about this big topic and they’ve been saying so for years.” npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Paradise on Hulu: 👍 I finished season one, which holds together well, so this isn’t a comment on the second season they’re releasing now. And I can’t really say more, because the pilot has a “something’s not quite right but you don’t know what” vibe, and I had a good experience going in cold. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Suez Crisis underrated as an analogue for Strait of Hormuz. Yes, big foreign power, the local power has disrupted traffic through a major shipping route. Got any bright ideas? npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman One of the best things about America is that people of any religion (or none) belong here. Prominent officials say Muslims aren’t? Wrong. Totally wrong. The Founders and the Bill of Rights and the Statue of Liberty and tons of other great Americans say you’re badly wrong. Freedom for all. Period. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman “Muslims don’t belong in American society,” says GOP Rep. Andy Ogles. Made me think of my rabbi, after post-9/11 bigotry, saying that Jews, Catholics, Mormons, and anyone else called unamerican for their religion has a moral obligation to push back. This country was founded on religious liberty. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman It really sucks that the president of the United States is not a reliable source on U.S. foreign policy. Maybe his words relate to actual policy and maybe they don’t. At many moments, even he doesn’t seem to know. Throws off so much, and makes large scale coordination virtually impossible. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Morbidly fascinating and pretty unsettling how many people hear "I have a plan for everything" with no details or explanation at all, and fill in the blanks with "oh good, this must be a brilliant plan that'll work, I'm relieved" rather than "so you have no idea, huh, or you'd be able to say it." #nevent1q…6d9f npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Global energy markets are like COVID — too big, with too many second- and third-order effects impacting too many people for Trump to bully into submission or lie his way through. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is 56, which means he was 10 in the 1979 revolution. That makes him the first leader of Iran without memories of life under the Shah or the revolution itself (beyond kid recollection, at least). Like John Quincy Adams, the first post-revolutionary leader. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Strait of Hormuz is why various advocates of opposing Iran urged against all out war. Yet another instance of refusing to believe warnings that the stove is hot. Wasn't even a debate between hawks and doves, but between hawkish types who value smart strategy and stupid hawks who say it'll be fine. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Could the US Navy sail ships through the Strait of Hormuz, and could they counter fire that targets them? Yes. Though it's always possible a few shots get through, in general yes. Can the Navy make shipping and insurance companies believe sailing now is profitable, at acceptable risk? Not really. #nevent1q…g9k8 npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman The US Navy will reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic? Red Sea and Suez Canal shipping traffic is still lower than before November 2023, when the Houthis began firing, claiming it was in support of Palestinians in Gaza. The Strait of Hormuz is narrower than any Red Sea choke point. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman war ≠ tariffs Tariffs imposed arbitrarily can be reversed arbitrarily, and removal acts similar to a stimulus. Most who adjusted economic activity can readjust. People killed in war don't come back to life. Infrastructure destroyed in war doesn't start working again. You can't just take it back. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Believe me yet? Screenshot from: www.thebulwark.com/p/youll-miss... https://inkcap.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne&cid=bafkreigjmvsnkhuwme5ddfi3xcstyefomdd3av6t5dih2cnwi2bwaoeqoi npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman It's doubly frustrating because the many ways FDD and other advocates of a regime change war on Iran were wrong could be seen in advance. And were. Here's me in 2018 explaining why they were badly wrong. I was hardly the only one who saw it and said so. Now events have played out as we warned. Iran Deal Opponents Keep Makin... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Everything the Iran hawks of “Foundation for Defense of Democracies” said was wrong. Diplomacy can’t restrict Iran’s nuclear program. Wrong “Maximum pressure” would get a “better deal,” with Iran capitulating. Wrong The Iranian regime is brittle and will quickly collapse with a push. Wrong again npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Some Kamala Harris supporters and critics both badly want to believe that 2024 was a foreign policy election—and not foreign policy overall, but one war the US wasn’t fighting in—and I’m sorry, but the evidence just isn’t there. You’re confusing your passion for low info voters’ decision calculus. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Special operations raids to secure Iran's uranium would be a lot more challenging than action movies make people think. @[email protected] explains how: Special Ops To Get The Uranium... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman The Harris campaign performed well, as far as campaigns go, in that she was multiple points closer in the swing states the campaign focused on, and had a smaller loss than most of the world's incumbent parties. There wasn't One Weird Trick she didn't do, nor One Big Mistake that cost it all. Sorry. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Good visual reminder that war not only has large human and economic costs, it can have environmental impacts as well. #nevent1q…zfrk npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman RUSSIA GETS: -Higher oil prices -Reduced US economic pressure -Bogged down US military -Air defense assets not sent to Ukraine US GETS: -Indefinite war in pursuit of undefined outcome -Weaker economy -Frayed international partnerships -Combat deaths npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Our warfighters at the Department of War won't be held back by political correctness saying their warmaking activities are "war." npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman In the worst drone war errors the US accurately hit wrongly identified targets. A wedding party in a group of vehicles, for example. But in those terrible instances we could go back and figure out exactly who made what informational errors and why. The LLMs are a black box. They can't explain it. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Hoovering up info that's outdated as well as relatively current and not knowing the difference is an unsurprising AI error. If the change was relatively recent, there's more old info, and the system lacks the judgment to find and emphasize the new. This is exactly why we need humans in the loop. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Iran is not Ukraine, but the United States is acting more like Russia. @[email protected] on the uncomfortable comparison: Contributor: U.S. attack on Ir... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman The US govt mixing video of real violence in a war it started with a video game scene feels like crossing a(nother) line. I’m not sure what to say. I don’t think war is a game. And even when I think military action is necessary, there are real human beings on the other end, not pixels that respawn. #nevent1q…72vw npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman 1) Militaries lose wars because of wokeness and win because of traditional conceptions of gender roles OR 2) Iran is weak and will lose quickly PICK ONE Or better yet, neither. Either way, it can’t be both. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman I like @[email protected] because they take a focused media angle on stories I follow from a primarily politics/IR frame. Latest one on Iran war and Paramount-WB purchase. I'm not recommending this because I heard my name on it. I heard my name on it because I was already listening. 5/5 Trump’s Iran Media Rollout, th... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman US Cultural Revolution, the elites, the Cathedral, wokeness as radical leftists executing a long march through the institutions, etc. It sounds insane, like a fringe conspiracy theory. But today's New Right says it so much. Accept that they mean it, and a lot of what they do makes more sense. 4/x The New Right's Theory of Powe... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman And since I've heard @[email protected] and @[email protected] encourage people to share writing they're proud of... Weiss and others who say the US had something like China's Cultural Revolution are badly ahistorically wrong. But they really seem to believe it. At least somewhat. 3/x No, America is Not Experiencin... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman With Bari Weiss, start from a premise that she believes the stuff she's said for years: she's a victim, radical Maoists took over everything and imposed a Cultural Revolution, free speech in the US was nearly dead. In other words, what if there's no irony in choosing the name "The Free Press"? 2/x npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman The Roberts Court even did that with the Constitution — which is insane — taking the part of 14A that says insurrectionists can’t hold office unless Congress passes something saying this one can, and turning it into insurrectionists can run for office unless Congress passes something this one can’t. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman To pick one of many possible examples, US radar installations in Qatar are in Iranian range and can't be moved. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman "Militarily closing the Strait of Hormuz—i.e. preventing US Navy access to it—would be hard, but Iran doesn’t need that for an economic impact. Hostilities make ships afraid to sail, and insurance companies refuse to cover the risk." Looks like the White House really didn't think this through. International Relations Is Not... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Americans love blaming any increase in gas prices on the president, and it’s usually not the president’s fault—because no one controls gas prices—but this time the increase in gas prices really is the president’s fault, directly caused by his entirely unnecessary policy choice. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Years of explaining that oil is a global commodity, a lot runs on day-of delivery schedules, crude isn't the same as refined products, the US both exports and imports, and more domestic drilling can't insulate the US economy from oil supply shocks elsewhere. And people rescued to believe it. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman When Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022 and when Hamas attacked Israel in 2023, that was Joe Biden starting wars. When the US bombed Syria in 2017, ramped up the drone program 2017-20, and killed an Iranian general in 2020, that wasn't war. American voters wanted a president who is anti-war. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Xi: Did you hear? Kim: No... Xi: The Americans are moving air defense systems out of South Korea! Kim: What? No way! Xi: Yes! Kim: Amazing. How'd you do that? Xi: I didn't do anything. They started a war with Iran, told themselves it'd be easy, and didn't do the math on interceptors. Kim: Ha! https://inkcap.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne&cid=bafkreieh2hfgswtvxcqsiqtvqvvm7divr2wzufwfdjptqt2jfqiikxfn3u npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman US-Israeli strikes on Iran, and Iran firing at Israel and US bases, are one front. Iran attacks on Gulf Arab states are another. Israel-Hezbollah in Lebanon and northern Israel is a third. The Houthis in Yemen will likely open a fourth soon. Any others? Iraqi militias have been pretty quiet. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman If a US military partner goes "we're gonna start a war and it'll blow back on you," American officials could easily respond "don't, and if you do anyway, we'll hold you responsible for our deaths and it'll ruin our relationship," instead of "ok, give us a month or two for a giant military buildup." npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Can't believe any Democrats think this moment calls for handing Republicans "whatabout your Nazi symbols?" and "'Nazi' is just a partisan insult, the left likes the quote 'Nazis' on their side," and joining the redefinition of "working class" as all about aesthetics, unrelated to income or job type. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman DC journalists have a golden opportunity. Just say something like "since they will be honoring an avowed enemy of free speech and a free press, I will not be attending the Correspondents' Association dinner this year." It's telling how many will not, even when handed to them on a silver platter. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman The US has fewer counterintelligence officers who have experience with Iran because a few years ago those US officers did their jobs properly and assisted with a judge-signed search warrant regarding a criminal theft of US defense secrets, which the search found a lot of evidence of. Seriously. #nevent1q…tdzq npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Iran's strategy appears to be: Don't have the air defenses to counter US and Israeli attacks, don't have enough strike capacity to get through their air defenses and impose serious military costs, so hit whatever you can, including in US-partnered Gulf Arab states, and hope they push the US to stop. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Pre-war CIA assessment predicted that killing Khamenei would likely lead to Revolutionary Guard hardliners taking over. Would that be an improvement? But whether or not it’s right, there’s little chance a stable democratic state arises from this chaos, let alone one friendly to the US and Israel. International Relations Is Not... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman The trend of increasing presidential power at the expense of Congress did not start with Trump, but this attack on Iran brings it to new heights, with the legislature not even consulted on a consequential use of one of its core responsibilities. And the GOP majorities are apparently fine with that. International Relations Is Not... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Iran ≠ Iraq "Many observers will note parallels to the 2003 Iraq war, with the US launching an unprovoked assault on a Middle Eastern government while denouncing an 'evil' regime pursuing weapons of mass destruction it does not currently have. But the differences are striking." I count at least 5: International Relations Is Not... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Many critics of Trump's attack on Iran wrongly focus on means, not the big picture, argues @[email protected] . They "imagine that a reasonable, justifiable war with Iran exists somewhere... They entertain the fantasy that there’s a reasonable version of Trump capable of thinking [that] through." Feeble Criticism of War With I... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman War is not a morality play. Looks like there’s no long-term plan. Trump ending JCPOA in 2018 set things on a path to war. Killing Khamenei isn’t regime change. Iran’s ability to retaliate appears limited, but watch tanker traffic. And more of my thoughts on the Iran war in @[email protected] . International Relations Is Not... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman War is not a morality play. The relevant question isn’t: Are the targets bad people who have done bad things? The relevant question is: Will going to war make things better, achieving something that’s worth the death and suffering it causes? npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman "If the US ends up withdrawing [from the Iran nuclear deal], it sets the Middle East on a path to two possible futures: 1) A nuclear Iran. 2) War. Both are much worse than the status quo." Oct 2017, warning against breaking JCPOA, saying no "better deal" would arise. I was hardly the only one. https://inkcap.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne&cid=bafkreibn2k43ihlbb7dlu4y55s44i7bprcskwrotw7yrt6p7kep46ivebe https://inkcap.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne&cid=bafkreifelzkc4ko2ximxku5ypqv5azzngjejv4dxihuuotsk6g6jxxa7p4 npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Airstrikes alone have never caused regime change. They can do a lot of damage, but can’t create conditions that last. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Big congratulations to the “no new wars” crowd. There were many bad reasons to support (or anti-anti-) Donald Trump. But none with as much willful denial and reality inversion as yours. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman “Nobody [in media is] coordinating this. It’s a set of professional habits designed for a political environment where officials operate in roughly good faith. Applied to a bad-faith actor, those same habits actively obscure what’s being said” @[email protected] , on missing/distorting the big picture Why ‘Flooding the Zone’ Works ... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman The DoD (sorry "DoW") response to Anthropic is that govt should be able to deploy AI for "any lawful use" Which isn't credible from a regime that regularly breaks the law, pretends the law says something it doesn't, and claims to have changed the law without following the legal procedures to do so. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman On oligarch media consolidation, TV networks matter, but don't sleep on: TikTok USA (Ellison, Andreesen, others) Ex-Twitter (Musk, Saudis) Electronic Arts (Saudis, Kushner) All Trump donors, allies, bribers, and/or family. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman This is very good, focusing on the specific components of ICE’s capacity, and how people can counter it. Don’t forget: the regime’s desire for authoritarian domination is bottomless, but its capacity to impose that is limited. And in some ways, it’s decreasing. Eventually, that is how it falls. #nevent1q…763y npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman "A bluff to generate leverage and preparation for a real attack look the same until someone starts shooting or backs down." On Trump and Iran, in @[email protected] Trump Can't Win on the Cheap i... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman I've been following (and teaching about) US-Israel-Palestine for many years, and the biggest factors are Bibi, Trump, and generational turnover. To older Americans, Israel was the smaller side, facing hostile Arab states. To younger ones, it's the bigger side, violently repressive to Palestinians. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Full article (gift link for those without a subscription) here: In Trump’s Case for War, a Ser... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Good job, New York Times. Directly calling Trump's case for war with Iran based on "false" claims that "do not hold up." In the headline, top of the homepage. And no hedging with "critics say." I don't think they ever did that in the lead up to Iraq, and rarely do anything like it for Trump's lies. https://inkcap.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne&cid=bafkreicqxidzg3e7igc5iic3kaznf6pmahu36p5as4olzvfuzwx6dirhpq npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Hollywood productions have never been anywhere close to as left-wing as culture warriors claim. Common themes: -Cops are heroes -Wealth is glamorous and should be pursued -Guns are awesome -Women are objects/decoration/prizes to be won -Violence solves problems Not always, of course, but a lot. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman I’m skeptical that mass producing MAGA content will actually happen, at least in a highly noticeable, national culture and politics shifting way. Not that many consumers want it, and they’re already pretty catered to. Many artists will want nothing to do with it. But I guess we’ll see. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Media consolidation under right-wing oligarchs sure isn’t good, but… How influential are CBS and CNN? How much of that influence can they keep while degrading? CBS ratings declined. WaPo many subscribers. The Fox News audience was already catered to. US media environment still far from Hungary’s. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Well, shit. This was right when I wrote it two months ago, but as of today it looks like the opposite. #nevent1q…udnf npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman A person’s info environment unavoidably influences which topics they think about, who they choose to engage, and their sense of what matters to other people. Propaganda, like a lot of advertising, relies on repetition. Often what’s most impactful isn’t the overt stuff, but the background noise. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman It is extremely difficult for human beings to spend a lot of time in an informational/social environment without adjusting to it at some level. Similar to audience capture, but more subtle and worse. Yes, this applies to any website, but most of them aren't constantly promoting bigotry and lies. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Trump has attacked Iran twice already. Killed Soleimani in term 1. Then downplayed Iran's retaliation and lied that Iranian-backed militia attacks stopped. Bombed Iranian nuclear sites last summer. Then lied that the program was totally obliterated. Why wouldn't Iran think he'd do the same again? Trump, Iran, and the Limits of... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman This pattern of risk-averse bullying—using force when it's short and relatively easy, backing down in the face of resistance, shying from anything longer or hard—doesn't mean Trump definitely won't attack Iran. It means the Iranians think appeasement won't work and that they can weather an attack. Trump, Iran, and the Limits of... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Trump has shown a willingness to use force—including illegally—but only when it’s short, low risk, with little-to-no follow through. He’s bombed small boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, shooting at people who can’t shoot back. By contrast, the Houthis shot back, and Trump backed down. Trump, Iran, and the Limits of... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman It probably doesn't help GOP efforts to turn out the entire MAGA base for the midterms that Trump told his supporters they'd never have to vote in an election again, and that they can't trust that their votes will count. If we have a magical president who can do anything, who cares about midterms? npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Congressional Republicans' reactions to Trump's SOTU lies, threats, and jeering "was a display worthy of Mussolini’s Blackshirts," writes @[email protected] in @[email protected] . Today's "Republican Party does not exist in a liberal democratic arena of electoral and ideological competition." Trump’s State of the Union Rem... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman The US had a deal curbing Iran’s nuclear program, but Trump scrapped it in 2018, letting Iran out of restrictions in exchange for nothing. That makes it even harder for Tehran to make a deal now, since they cannot trust that American pressure will ease in response. Trump, Iran, and the Limits of... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Trump envoy Steve Witkoff on Iran: "Why haven't they capitulated?" This confusion is unsurprising from people who approach the world as narcissistic, risk-averse bullies. They seem genuinely surprised when a smaller side doesn’t give in to threats, even though it keeps happening. See also: Ukraine Trump, Iran, and the Limits of... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Demanding people surrender their drivers licenses because the state decided to discriminate against them as a class, and threatening jail time if they're caught driving without a legitimate license—because the state revoked them discriminatorily—is a wholly unjustified, cruel, bigoted action. Thread #nevent1q…7gae npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman Looks like I jumped the gun on this one, and while Anthropic has made some changes, it has not altered its policies in the ways the Pentagon has demanded. My apologies. Here's a screenshot of the inaccurate post for the record, but I deleted the original so it doesn't spread further. h/t @[email protected] https://inkcap.us-east.host.bsky.network/xrpc/com.atproto.sync.getBlob?did=did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne&cid=bafkreicalddqqlw6cbv3xj7ahudorllfjhvkjcuwjwoygjmb7572unvcoq npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman The Trump regime looks like it's hoping to bully Iran into a deal, and are genuinely confused why that hasn't worked. But the Iranians can't trust that the US would honor any deal, which is a problem of Trump's own making. So it's likely war, failure, or face-saving lies like last time. My latest Trump, Iran, and the Limits of... npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman The Trump regime is not only going against the Constitution, the Declaration of Independence, and the American Revolution. The principle that the executive cannot unilaterally allocate public funds—a legislature must have a big say—predates the United States. Glorious Revolution, a century before. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman The people of Minnesota vote for representatives to Congress. Minnesota Reps. and Sens. were in DC, representing their constituents, when Congress passed laws using proper procedure that allocated Medicaid funding. The president breaking those laws violates the fundamental compact of the republic. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman I don’t think the important thing about opposing ICE is defending the slogan “defund the police” (see replies and quotes). And I don’t think the move with Dem politicians warming to “abolish ICE” is to insist one can’t be anti-ICE without also opposing all law enforcement. But you do you, Bluesky. #nevent1q…5saj npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman One thing to add: Democrats really shouldn’t fear to be anti-ICE. It’s specific, unlike “defund the police.” If asked, say “Of course I support enforcing the law. ICE isn’t doing that. They’re breaking laws—really important laws, like the Bill of Rights—not enforcing them, which why I oppose ICE.” npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman I used to be a State of the Union nerd. Found it interesting as both policy vision and political theater. Started watching with my parents, later hosted watch parties. We made up drinking game rules, and made fun of the pageantry. I didn't watch yesterday. And don't regret it. But I find that sad. npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman By promoting the writer who says Blacks need to be policed harder and dismisses Epstein concerns as a hysterical attack on age gap relationships, Jared Polis, Matt Yglesias, Gavin Newsom etc. signal their anti-woke bonafides. Basically “I’m not like those other libs, I’m one of the cool ones.” #nevent1q…7fx6 npub15awg2xe33qlpld8qd7mku8kkp8c5swflldeyykevqe7e45vc0e2qsgspcf Nicholas Grossman The US is weaker due to Trump, but is it more feared? Democracies and traditional US allies are more afraid of America, that’s true (though I don’t know why it’d be good). Russia is clearly less afraid of the US now. So is North Korea. China seems practically giddy at the US throwing allies away.