PlanB

twitter.com/100trillionusd

Creator of the stock-to-flow model

Public Key

npub15wcvuhts6rdj9zzhq6etru2yc6ry5ljg9zk070u0q89xk065452sjvqy0q

NIP-05 Address

[email protected]

NIP-57 Address

[email protected]

Profile Code

nprofile1qqs28vxwt4cdpkez3ptsdv4379zvdpj20eyz3t8l878srjnt8a2269gntalt5

Publishing to

nos.lol

relay.damus.io

Author Public Key

npub15wcvuhts6rdj9zzhq6etru2yc6ry5ljg9zk070u0q89xk065452sjvqy0q

Show more details

Last Notes

2024-02-08 14:25:25

Adding 2% bitcoin to a classic 60/40 portfolio vastly improves performance. But most investors are too focused on Sharpe-ratio (based on st.deviation). They see that Sharpe declines a bit. Calmar-ratio (based on drawdown) is a better metric and it improves a lot! Using Calmar: ditching stocks and bonds entirely and invest 4% in BTC while holding 96% in cash, yields superior investment performance. It will take years for large traditional investors to change their risk perspective from st.deviation to drawdown and their risk/return perspective from Sharpe to Calmar. Perspective matters. https://m.primal.net/HbSt.png

2024-02-08 12:16:54

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hmm
and the html is correct like this right?:
{
"names": {
"PlanB": "a3b0ce5d70d0db22885706b2b1f144c6864a7e4828acff3f8f01ca6b3f54ad15"
}
}

2024-02-08 11:39:23

After orange comes ...
https://m.primal.net/HbRN.png

2024-02-08 11:11:44

Realized prices are all increasing, and bitcoin is above them all = bullish. Also, 5M realized price (currently $40k) acts like a floor for the dips in bull markets (red arrows). So .. never below $40k again?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFzgdsTXwAAKwI1.jpg
More info here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alEA_nqGMfI&t=407s

2024-01-05 13:24:40

Thinking of udating and reviewing these 8 charts monthly on youtube, as a short market overview.
https://youtu.be/3We9I_Cs4Cs?si=5lP6FVvT91vEuJhp

2024-01-04 09:44:31

Hackers tried to gain access to my twitter account today.

2023-08-24 09:40:36

Humans will not change (greed&fear) -> cycles will not change:
https://youtu.be/1kogTNTeOkQ
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F4NC0TEX0AAnqeG.jpg

2023-07-29 17:10:27

New PlanB video! "Price is what you pay, value is what you get". $100k - $1m bitcoin?
https://youtu.be/iuf69tureKc

2023-07-15 20:40:09

Bitcoin $40,000-%50,000 at April 2024 halving? New planB video:
https://youtu.be/vmIlDbTgFYs

2023-06-29 00:20:07

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzpOj4ZXwAghzsP.jpg
Let's take $ out of the equation:
BTC = 16 ounces of gold🚀

2023-06-24 19:49:23

NEW video on YouTube!
https://youtu.be/GJXl_bCQMKc

2023-06-07 22:00:50

Periodic reminder
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FyCDEwDWAAkU5zS.jpg

2023-06-03 14:13:47

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Fiat price certainly matters because fiat is (still) the denominator. Fiat price is the best gauge of adoption imo.

2023-06-03 14:11:36

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Or new bitcoiners who are testing if profits are real and how the selling process works.

2023-06-03 13:20:27

Bitcoin Realized Return is positive (green) for the 5th month in a row. Average cost price of May sellers was $24.6k
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxpCPLkWwAEsiWs.png

2023-05-30 20:50:55

Some think S2F model is invalidated/broken because EMH, laser eyes, demand, autocorrelation, 100k, cointegration
Others are watching S2F trading rule and waiting for 2024 halving to bring profits once again (like 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings did before)
Time will tell who is right
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxXeaxCXoAcIKET.png

2023-05-11 23:58:21

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Thank you @npub1tsg…htk4 but can you make the improved code for me?

2023-05-11 23:55:37

@npub1tsg…htk4 can you please make this Python code faster (data file d.txt is ~350GB and the code processes ~2 billion dictionary inserts and ~2 billion pops)?
d={}
with open('d.txt','r') as f:
for l in f:
v=l.split(" ")
b,i,o=int(v[0]),int(v[1]),int(v[2])
for x in range(4+i,4+i+o):
d[str(v[x+o])]=(b,float(v[x]))
for x in range(4,4+i):
d.pop(str(v[x]), None)
print(d)

2023-05-11 23:39:24

@npub1tsg…htk4 can you please list the last 10 presidents of the USA?

2023-05-11 23:36:38

@dave can you please list the last 10 presidents of the USA?

2023-05-11 23:32:41

@npub1tsg…htk4 what do you think the price of bitcoin will be at the 2024 halving?

2023-04-26 17:43:35

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fuo7sl9X0AMcm1i.jpg
Let's take USD out of the equation.
Bitcoin (BTC) priced in ounces of gold (XAU).
Will 2023 be another outlier or revert to model?🔥

2023-04-24 20:56:07

S2F 55k 100k and 288k models explained in this video:
https://youtu.be/DMe8_hZP98o

2023-04-24 20:43:00

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~80% below the top?

2023-04-24 20:41:57

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Yes some people mention liquidity but I have not studied it myself yet. Would be great if some could share a chart on this.

2023-04-24 20:40:13

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I don't think s2f was invalidated at all. I think we will see a red hot bull market after 2024 halving, again, just like 2012, 2016 and 2020, as per s2f model.

2023-04-24 11:04:54

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuN5rEVWAAAKDc1.jpg
Saying S2F model is "wrong/invalid/broken", means saying BTC price pumps after 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings (red arrows) are coincidences, random, unrelated to halvings.
Possible, but I disagree. IMO 21M cap, supply schedule, 4y halving cycle are fundamental to BTC price. IMO the halving will probably be at S2F model value $60k (dark blue) and BTC will pump after the halving (red), just like 2012, 2016, 2020 halvings.

2023-04-24 11:00:52

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FuP9ZyZXoAA-u1Z.jpg
Metcalfe's Law says: value of a network = number of users squared (N^2)
S2F Model says: value of an asset = scarcity cubed (S2F^3)
So if S2F 2x then value 8x (2x2x2)
Oh, and April 2024 halving will 2x #Bitcoin    S2F
Probably nothing🔥

2023-04-19 09:56:29

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ft7l7qcWYAAJBEw.jpg
#Bitcoin    April 2024 halving will double S2F-ratio from ~55 to ~110, and make BTC scarcer than gold (S2F-ratio ~60).
1) will BTC value post halving > pre halving (as per S2F model)?
2) will BTC mcap > gold $10T (as per S2FX model)?
3) will S2F trading rule (see chart) still work?

2023-04-19 09:54:31

#Bitcoin   
Jan 27, 2021: $29K
Feb 21, 2021: $58K (~2x in 25 days)
---
Jul 20, 2021: $29K
Sep 6, 2021: $52K (~2x in 47 days)

2023-04-12 15:17:15

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1584883797061152768?t=a7lGlLdfnDTI2iXcLKkEIA&s=19
✅️ $21k
✅️ $24k
✅️ $30k
*25 Oct 2022

2023-04-10 17:10:11

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S2f model als has 1 input variable: s2f-ratio

2023-04-06 10:22:05

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fs82YRUX0AEpH59.png
NEW chart: #Bitcoin market stages
🔵 stage 1: early bear
🟢 stage 2: late bear
🟡 stage 3: early bull <- we are here
🔴 stage 4: late bull
This is my favorite chart after S2F, based on 1 on-chain variable. Not prediction, but detection. If you like this stuff, I will update.

2023-04-02 17:00:04

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FsnPeqPWYAMES7d.jpg
#Bitcoin March closing price $28,476

2023-03-30 10:59:40

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fsa-1uVXwAAx3oJ.png
73% of all (on-chain) #Bitcoin is in profit (green)

2023-03-24 10:54:02

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Not really meant as prediction, more valuation, like s2f. Metcalfe and s2f models are for roughly understanding why/how adoption and scarcity affect price.

2023-03-23 23:23:43

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Doesn't really matter for the argument

2023-03-23 23:03:47

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fr5_keiWYAgaqpx.png
Current bitcoin adoption is ~1%
Adoption from 1% to 10% will be as fast as from 0.1% to 1%, as per the s-curve 1/(1+exp(a)) .. less than 10 years!
And yes, there is a link between adoption% and price (Metcalfe's law). The vertical is coming.

2023-03-23 12:51:44

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fr5t3nXWIAAv5O9.png
Of course banks & governments hate bitcoin!
Just like the horse industry hated cars
Just like the music industry hated MP3
Just like the telecom industry hated VOIP

2023-03-22 21:04:58

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Always log on long term (multiple year) time frames

2023-03-22 16:44:23

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fr0qi1tWcAMXr5f.png
Momentum is real

2023-03-19 18:17:24

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrmIvUYWAAEpuCW.jpg
Bitcoin RSI > 50 .. bull market confirmed🚀

2023-03-19 18:15:49

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrlbphEXsAAmOp1.jpg
Trust in (central) banks is broken. Fiat system is compromised and weaponized (cut countries off Swift, freeze accounts, kill industries). Fiat money lost money functionality.
Bitcoin is math (ECDSA+SHA256+P2P) thus doesn't need trust. Bitcoin also uses less energy than banking!

2023-03-17 00:09:42

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrVcN_ZX0AAROlg.jpg
Bitcoin momentum is turning bullish, despite banking woes. Blue is next, then red.

2023-03-14 18:26:40

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrMCi5eWwAMofY5.png
Btc > 200wma > realized price 🚀

2023-03-14 18:17:45

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Talk to a bitcoiner in your friends and family circle. Probability is high that some are willing to trade 1 or 2 btc for cash (or a car etc)

2023-03-13 16:48:31

Bitcoin price is the best measure of adoption

2023-03-13 16:08:48

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Not at all. I know many people that pay and get payed in btc for many years. No need to go all in, just start small, with buying coffee with btc and asking btc when a bitcoiners owes you money etc.

2023-03-13 16:06:40

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No, I don't need on/off ramps. I need people who want bitcoin and are offering their products and services in btc: houses, cars, yachts, bikes, hotels, airplane tickets, restaurants, supermarkets, computers, clothing, second hand markets etc etc.

2023-03-13 16:02:35

Bitcoin
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FrGkX4TWwAApq-P.jpg

2023-03-13 14:11:46

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Yes we are at that point. I know many people who already are at that point .. for years

2023-03-13 13:58:44

We do not need banks
We do not need on/off-ramps
Just start asking #bitcoin for your products & services
Just start using products that can be bought with BTC
Just stop using banks and fiat (USD, EUR etc)

2023-03-07 21:30:55

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Yes one of the disadvantages of being anon is that I can't go to conferences, unfortunately because I love f2f meetings..

2023-03-07 09:52:23

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Huh, how can you lose followers? They are following your public key, how can relays change that?

2023-03-06 23:03:17

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Got it, thank you!

2023-03-06 22:43:07

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How do I know which relays exist, and which to pick?

2023-03-06 22:36:19

My experience with paid relays: I tried nostr .wine (18,888 sats) and eden .nostr .land (5000 sats) next to my 12 free relays (e.g. damus, nos) and it makes no noticeable difference. Wine is at least relaying many messages. Eden does absolutely nothing, zero messages relayed. So, idk, maybe I do something wrong here.. All tips/help is welcome!
https://i.imgur.com/43bApwK.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/eYsDFDO.jpg

2023-03-06 16:12:18

After March 2024 halving, bitcoin will be the scarcest asset in the world.
https://i.imgur.com/H9bDdsv.gif

2023-03-02 12:54:43

70% of all bitcoin is in profit. More detailed analysis:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klUjoo-D-XY&t=12s
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqNjHbNXsAIEWFI.png

2023-03-01 12:23:21

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Yes I had already added it a couple of days ago, didn't know you had to pay

2023-03-01 12:20:13

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Hmm I just paid nostr.eden.land 5000 sats but nothing happens.. feels scammy

2023-03-01 12:03:13

I am not using payed relays (only standard relays on iris and amethyst), should I and how does that work?

2023-03-01 10:22:14

Bitcoin February closing price $23,145
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqH7QXuWYAAHRoq.png

2023-02-28 15:40:29

Bitcoin S-curve .. vertical incoming
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FqDydXXXgAEfwou.png

2023-02-27 11:47:01

2024 halving will make bitcoin the scarcest asset in the world. Even if we wanted to price that in, we couldn't.
https://nocamels.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/black-hole-by-NASA.jpg

2023-02-25 16:34:10

S&P500 is my macro proxy because stock markets price in / anticipate all macro events (inflation, recession, central bank action, war etc)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp0pY_0WYAExtm5.jpg

2023-02-25 16:33:00

S&P500 is my macro proxy because stock markets price in / anticipate all macro events (inflation, recession, central bank action, war etc). More on S&P-BTC correlation here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klUjoo-D-XY&t=219s

2023-02-25 14:07:28

Stock-to-Flow model discussion:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klUjoo-D-XY&t=353s

2023-02-24 13:47:29

36% bears
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpfSCXrXsAAS_Pa.png

2023-02-23 11:08:24

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I don't know how to implement that. There is a lnurl in my profile but guess that is not the way to do it...

2023-02-23 11:06:17

Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FppLhbkWYAQjw0V.jpg

2023-02-21 19:21:12

*NEW PlanB video on YouTube🔥
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klUjoo-D-XY

2023-02-21 11:22:42

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Ah the trolls have found nostr. Pls just unfollow if you hate me, my charts, the Dutch, traders, bybit, everthing so much.

2023-02-15 23:58:42

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Last chance to buy below $25k🚀

2023-02-15 19:29:24

Bitcoin = 13 ounces of Gold
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpBx3_IXgAA2OXq.jpg

2023-02-13 22:11:39

First impersonator on nostr! Iwondered how long that woukd take. And he is scamming people too, with his ln invoices. Be careful out there!
https://nostr.band/npub13djky3w74xdzktaz09wd9ct5mwhcte4fy5zeysmjuxn5adlzeknq0vr5kz

2023-02-13 21:59:55

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Ha 5.2k followers! Why do amethyst and iris show much less?

2023-02-13 20:53:23

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fo2DGo1WYAAhNAi.png
Difficulty/hashrate and utxo/tx based models are currently spot on.
S2F and time/adoption based models are too high.
Will these 4 models converge again, i.e. will difficulty and utxo pump?

2023-02-12 19:03:33

I added Lightning to my nostr, not sure if I did it correctly?

2023-02-12 17:22:20

https://media.tenor.com/cD-4pNdygggAAAAC/fun-snow.gif
Nostr rocks!!

2023-02-12 16:06:25

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Foxkk5XWYAE3hBq.png
Bitcoin valuation models are diverging! Sometimes all models converge on roughly the same value (2011, 2013, 2017). Now difficulty & utxo based models (and BTC price) show a much lower value than S2F-ratio & time based models. Will difficulty & utxo pump or will S2F & time fail?

2023-02-12 15:07:33

My Twitter experience last couple of months:
- Twitter blocks and unfollows ~200 of my followers daily
- Twitter shadow banned me: my tweets are not send to 80% of followers, notifications do not work for 80%, I do not show up in search (by non-followers), I do not show up in "for you" TL)
- Twitter allows 89 planb impersonators to use my icon & background, to (only) retweet all my tweets, and to dm and reply people to scam them / steal their btc
- Twitter allows hundreds of spam bots to polute all my tweets with the exact same message. Annoying for you, but for me it means I can nor read replies anymore, thus I can not communicate / discuss with you anymore (ddos effectively)
Needless to say I am done with Twitter and will be spending more time on nostr and making yt videos.

2023-02-04 12:53:41

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I like it! Great vibe, super technology (much alike bitcoin). What's missing, of course, is network effect. I hope I can help a bit by promoting nostr to my 2M twitter followers.

2023-02-04 10:08:59

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pe27FiXtFcw
*NEW video on YouTube: 7 Bull Signals🚀

2023-02-01 23:20:38

test
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FmTcAGJXoAUfTWN?format=png&name=small

2023-02-01 20:27:19

I am on Iris web client. What is the best android app (no apple, so no Damus app for me)?