tech_pleb
Bootleg Macro Pleb

Haven't been on nostr for a couple months. I'm very impressed with the development since then, content getting way better, looks like nostr is on the up. Got no followers though, do me a favor and help out a fellow pleb with a follow?

2023-07-02 01:15:07 GMT

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Ah shit, I thought this kind of thing must be happening. I work hard on epic threads and literally get like 2 likes nowadays. Hopefully many move over to here.

2023-04-08 10:46:29 GMT

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Damn I was a musk fan but I trust Lyn more than Musk so he dead to me now.

2023-04-03 13:07:11 GMT

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Cheers bruv.

2023-04-03 11:15:47 GMT

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Crazy move. I wonder how far back is the last gap like that on oil. I'm thinking decades perhaps.

2023-03-25 03:02:11 GMT

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Loans are not QE. Taking a loan puts a liability on your balance sheet. Figure below illustrates how BTFP loan would work. There is no increase in the equity of the bank. No economic stimulus unles they are mad & YOLO that loan into assets. QE on the other hand is like “here’s $100 for your 30Y bond of $60 value, keep the change ser…
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_7ad4b3f3a61a9a087001a741d1db8e00c9ec5357e653fbeb8907dd795427f0d5.jpg

2023-03-25 02:57:06 GMT

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Plenty of snake oil salesmen on twitter are promoting that this bal. sheet expansion is QE already. They are trying to drum up exit liquidity.
Here's an example:
https://twitter.com/cameron/status/1639272598985924608?s=20

2023-03-25 02:54:49 GMT

I've seen a lot of bad takes all over twitter concerning the recent emergency lending by the fed to banks and this being QE etc. Loan's ain't QE. No, in fact this is a warning sign of the greatest order. While I think bitcoin will come out on top eventually, the probability of an upcoming credit crunch & correlation -> 1 event like Mar 2020 is higher than at any point since then. While the eventual result will probably be QE & bitcoin mooning, don't think that it can't first get slaughtered in price by another credit crunch & wave of deflation. In fact, QE won't happen until such an event forces the fed's hand.
See chart below. Red is total Fed bal. sheet (BS) & blue is the QE part (treasury & agency securities obtained by printing money & buying outright). The difference (green) is mostly short-term loans. During QE, blue & red track, green is flat. Red-blue divergence & green spiking happens during emergency lending episodes. When this is seen, the probability of an upcoming credit crunch is much elevated.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_f25393f3bae2c3d021b114bbf2f61d9404a8ea96951598ee44e1e22073cd1c84.png

2023-03-25 02:46:01 GMT

Anybody doing Macro analysis / commentary on Nostr yet? Let's get Macro discussions happening here.

2023-03-08 10:05:30 GMT

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That's how you got your physical laser eyes. Eyes got so red from hardcore ganja. Already had the metaphorical ones. https://youtu.be/M0NKhDmaSwc

2023-03-08 10:00:07 GMT

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Gotta have that two way zap flow. ⚡🤙

2023-02-22 01:20:58 GMT

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OCMS are f**king all time most epic band, y'all gotta listen beyond Wagon Wheel.

2023-02-17 13:43:39 GMT

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Ouch bro. He probably aped back in later though and has way better cost basis than most of us.

2023-02-17 13:40:32 GMT

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That's me! Got talent flying out of all orifices but not enough like minded plebs in my vicinity!!!

2023-02-17 13:37:01 GMT

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Soo much siggie can't even deal..
https://i.imgur.com/vqncIDh.jpg

2023-02-15 07:26:55 GMT

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That's a wrap on my first Nostr thread. Gimmie a follow if you like content on Macro with Sexy-looking charts made using Python and focused on bitcoin. Plebs for the win.

2023-02-15 07:24:58 GMT

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That's very cool how twitframe tweet previews have been added.

2023-02-15 07:24:04 GMT

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4/ Track the NLQ metric yourself, make charts like these & get access to other tools (all free) using my #Python scripts. Usage guide in this twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/Tech_Pleb/status/1619721722714017792?s=20&t=pyU8mftBLI6xnrlL1_ab0Q

2023-02-15 07:21:41 GMT

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3/ Compare NLQ YoY Δ% vs BTC YoY Δ% to Raoul Pal's great chart showing global M2 money supply deviation from trend vs crypto total market cap YoY Δ%. The deviation from trend metric is similar to YoY Δ% in that it is essentially a first order derivative of the underlying metric. We see similar behavior between global M2 and Fed NLQ with respect to BTC. I expect that most global liquidity metrics will show a similar behavior.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_cac8551697d147cebc2864757e201d75ca5b845873bd7c64c84ce04b31f53c2e.png

2023-02-15 07:18:17 GMT

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2/ Here is the same base series of the last chart. Considering that YoY Δ% is the first derivative of the base metric (being asset price or $ balance) with respect to time. Correlation is very high since March 2020, since the fiat firehose was unleashed.
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_db0ca83259a687926e0509244f9e3b1a4f4ef94b6d7c637aab2149fecf283c49.png

2023-02-15 07:16:44 GMT

USD Net liquidity metric (NLQ) vs BTC full history. YoY Δ%. Periods of increasing liquidity coincide with periods of BTC price appreciation. This makes sense, as the fiat spigots are opened, some % of the new money finds its way into BTC. As people begin to worry about dollar debasement, the trend accelerates. Then you get times like 2020 where the money printing is so fast and distractions are significant so you get a big lag between the printing and the pumping (of BTC price).
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_fd5c86d063f28be09a0452d9c1e380b00614d97d61454012617b37d7645f94ee.png

2023-02-15 00:11:59 GMT

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Shilling decentralized alternatives results in immediate termination?

2023-02-13 04:29:40 GMT

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This looks to be working well.

2023-02-13 04:29:04 GMT

Wassup Plebs. This is my first Nostr post. Testing image posting....
https://nostr.build/i/nostr.build_b5358bae762393f5c4a195f7769e3fa16251002a874d7e971fc0a3f1bca778d1.jpeg